I know all of my fans are dying for me to contribute to this forum. Well, here's my contribution.
Disclaimer: There is no lock, 50 dimes, or sarcasm in this thread.
A little background. I've been publishing my picks on another site since the start of this season. I'm batting a little over .500 in the NFL, but am hitting a little over 60% in college football. So take it for what it's worth. The pick for tonight's Monday Night Football game is below. Picks vary from 1-5 units, with the unit being a percentage of your bankroll. I'm fairly confident in this game. If I'm wrong, I can't wait for the posse to pounce on my 0-1 start.
****JACKSONVILLE +3 at Houston
The magic number is 150. When Jacksonville rushes for 150 yards or more this year, they're 3-0 ATS. Fail to do so and they're 0-8 ATS. Good news for MJD and Freddie T is that they're going up against the 23rd ranked rushing defense. 3 of Houston's last 4 opponents have rushed for over 150 yards (including the 29th ranked Indy rushing offense). These two clubs also find themselves in unfamiliar positions. Despite a record of 4-7, Jacksonville finds themselves as the underdog for only the 4th time this year. 2 of their 3 covers have as the underdog. Jack Del Rio has thrived as the underdog though, going 20-10 ATS during his tenure at Jacksonville. He's also been great at rebounding off a 2+ game losing streak, 12-3 ATS in that situation. Houston finds themselves as the favorite for the 5th time this year, going 1-3 ATS in the previous 4. Their -10 TO ratio is one of the worst in the NFL, and their two games of season-high 4 TOs were games where they were favorites. Jacksonville is statistically better on the road. Combine that with the Jags being more comfortable in the underdog position and Houston perhaps playing a little tight as the favorite, a Jacksonville cover looks pretty good.
hno:
