colts -4 wtf?

[jaypaw]

might not look so anemic?



FACT - The colts defense is LAST in yards per game allowed - but they have faced the offenses of Brady, McNair (granted with much less of a team around him), and Favre - sure with another secondary injury there will be more pressure on them, but leftwich doesnt compare well to Brady, Mcnair, and Favre... Take this stat for what its worth, maybe a wash maybe a slight plus to jacksonville but looking at who indy has faced its no suprise they are last in yards allowed per game.

FACT - the jacksonville offense is LAST in yards per game - having faced the defenses of buffalo (Yds allowed per game rank 4), denver (Yds allowed per game rank FIRST), and tennessee (Yds allowed per game rank 12th). Give Jacksonville some credit offensively for doing enough to win - and adjusting for denver you could make a slight case for this being a stat thats a tad harsh - however, it is what it is - last in the league in yards per game. Anemic if you ask me. Definitely missing some red blood cells...

FACT - The colts offense is FIRST in yards per game - having faced the pats D (14th in yds allowed per game), Tennessee (12th in yds allowed per game), and Green Bay(21st in yds allowed per game). Adjusting for who they played this still puts the colts among the best offensively. Now look at who they are facing:

FACT - The jags defense is 8th in yards allowed per game - having faced the buffalo offense (rank 29th in yds per game), Tennessee offense Mc Nair (rank 23rd in yds per game), and denver offense (rank 9th in yds per game). Anemia in the competition is the story here - the jags rank 8th in yds allowed per game not because they are underrated - BUT the case can be made that they are in fact OVERRATED slightly considering they have faced the 23rd and 29th ranked offenses of tennessee and Buffalo (in terms of yards allowed per game). Reality puts the jags defense in about the middle of the pack.


Jags Defense in the MIDDLE of the pack - Colts Offense at the TOP of the heap any way you slice it.

Jags Offense at the BOTTOM of the pack - Colts Defense at the BOTTOM of the pack.

I see a net result of the colts being on top. By 4 or more points in a hostile place against a D that put Mcnair out of action? That one will be determined at gametime - but I have trouble making the case that the colts won't at least win here.

GL

 

[Holysmoke+]

if the jaguars were 0-3 which they very well could be now, would this line be -3.5?

 

[jaypaw]

good point - if they were 0-3 this line would be +10

 

[$haggy]

Forecast for Sunday in Jacksonville is scattered thunderstorms, 40 percent chance of rain... Its Wednesday tho, so keep checking this.

I think Fred Taylor will have a field day at home against this Colts D. They'll keep manning and co. off the field.

If you're on the Jags, you have to be worried about the Colts jumping out early. That would be bad for Jacksonville. I dont anticipate it happening on the grass in Jvilles house tho.

If this thing goes up to 5 I'm gonna be all over Jville.

 

[jaypaw]

fred taylor may have a field day - but if indy averages anywhere near 12 yds per catch then taylor's 3.8 yds per run wont get them very far even if it does take time off the clock.

The key will be for the jags to make stops in the defensive backfield. Its hard to make the case for them being able to do so rain or no rain. Its possible though I suppose.

Gl

 

[gijoe]

the only thing im saying is if you guys are betting the jags, u might as well bet the over too because manning will put points on the board and the worse u do is owe the juice. manning is in a zone and they might come out and throw 50 times again.

 

[hdaddy]

This is why I log on to this forum. Good points for both sides.

 

[RPM]

the only thing im saying is if you guys are betting the jags, u might as well bet the over too because manning will put points on the board and the worse u do is owe the juice. manning is in a zone and they might come out and throw 50 times again.

i disagree. the only way the jags win, is if the score stays under. even against a weak defense, i dont see jacksonville scoring more than 21 points at best.

 

[$haggy]

i disagree. the only way the jags win, is if the score stays under. even against a weak defense, i dont see jacksonville scoring more than 21 points at best.

agreed. Maybe 28 if there defense managed to take one to the house (which I think is a real possibility in this game)... then again, it may be 21 WITH a defensive touchdown...

 

[jaypaw]

again you cant make the case for jacksonville scoring as much as they did last year - because with harrison out the colts played a different game completely - and that is why they lost.

There is no way the jags score anywhere near what green bay did - the two offenses are in different leagues.