When: 5:00 PM ET, Monday, January 2, 2017 Where: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
ROSE BOWL GAME PRESENTED BY NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL STORYLINES
1. Although neither Penn State or USC was selected for the College Football Playoff, two of the hottest teams in the country meet Jan. 2 in ”The Granddaddy of Them All” -- the 103rd Rose Bowl. Despite the Nittany Lions winning their last nine games, including 24-21 over CFP participant Ohio State and 38-31 over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Conference title game, they were left out of the playoff because of early losses to Pittsburgh and Michigan. Much like Penn State, USC was left for dead after a 1-3 start that included a 52-6 humiliating loss at No. 1 Alabama, but a change at quarterback revitalized the Trojans and they finished with eight straight wins, including 26-13 over CFP-bound Washington and 21-17 over Colorado.
2. This game features two of the best young quarterbacks in the country in Penn State sophomore Trace McSorley (school records of 3,360 yards passing and 25 touchdown passes) and USC freshman Sam Darnold (68.1 completion percentage, 26 TDs, eight interceptions). McSorley led the FBS in yards per completion (16.3), topped the Big Ten and finished 14th nationally in passer rating (156.6), and completed 39-of-54 passes for 760 yards with eight TDs and no interceptions in victories over Michigan State and Wisconsin to wrap of the Big Ten title. Darnold took over from Max Browne in the fourth game, finished second in ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating (86.8 behind Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield), and 10th in passing rating (161.0), and became the only USC quarterback to throw five TD passes in consecutive games.
3. McSorley had a record-breaking campaign but it was all made possible because of the threat of sophomore running back Saquon Barkley, who is on the short list for the 2017 Heisman and the likely first running back off the NFL draft board in 2018. The 5-11, 223-pounder ran for 1,302 yards and scored a total of 19 touchdowns - tops in the Big Ten - and finished second in the conference in all-purpose yards (128.2 per game) after adding 347 yards on 23 pass receptions. The first Nittany Lions running back to garner All-American accolades since Larry Johnson in 2002 won’t be the only back on the field as USC’s Ronald Jones II enters having run for 742 yards, nine TDs and a 7.8 yards-per-carry average in his last five games.
TV: 5 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: USC - 7 O/U 59.5
ABOUT PENN STATE (11-2): McSorley has a plethora of capable receivers, including wideouts Chris Godwin (50 receptions, 795 yards, nine touchdowns), DaeSean Hamilton (34 catches, 506 yards) and tight end Mike Gesicki, who set a school record for tight ends with 47 catches while totaling 668 yards and four TDs. The offense was able to overcome a much-maligned line which lost its top three tackles during the course of the season to average 36.7 points - including an NCAA-best 13 per fourth quarter. Befallen by injuries to all three starting linebackers early in the season, the defense, led by safety Marcus Allen (101 tackles), linebacker Brandon Bell (87 tackles in nine games) and defensive end Garrett Sickels (12.5 tackles for loss, six sacks), ranked fourth in the FBS in tackles for loss (112), 14th in sacks (39) and 22nd in total defense (352.0).
ABOUT USC (9-3): Darnold fell just shy of Cody Kessler’s completion-percentage school record of 69.7 set in 2014, but his 26 TD passes are a school record for a freshman and his 230 rushing yards are the most in a season by a USC quarterback since 1991. Jones ran for 1,027 yards and a 6.5 average, and junior wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster (63 catches, 781 yards, nine touchdowns), who ranks fifth all-time in receptions (206) joins Darreus Rogers (51 catches, 654 yards) as Darnold’s main threats in the passing game. Junior cornerback-wide receiver-returner Adoree’ Jackson (51 tackles, team highs of four interceptions, two fumble recoveries), who was named the winner of the 2016 Thorpe Award as the nation’s top defensive back, also averaged 30.5 on kickoff returns and 15.9 on punt returns with a combined four touchdowns.
[h=3]ATS Trends[/h]
Southern California
Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.
Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
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Penn State
Nittany Lions are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Nittany Lions are 5-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Nittany Lions are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Nittany Lions are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
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[h=3]OU Trends[/h]
Southern California
Over is 5-0 in Trojans last 5 games in January.
Under is 9-1 in Trojans last 10 games on grass.
Under is 7-1 in Trojans last 8 games overall.
Under is 7-1 in Trojans last 8 games following a straight up win.
Under is 6-1 in Trojans last 7 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 vs. Big Ten.
Under is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 3-1-1 in Trojans last 5 Bowl games.
Over is 9-3-1 in Trojans last 13 neutral site games.
Under is 3-1-1 in Trojans last 5 bowl games.
Over is 8-3-1 in Trojans last 12 non-conference games.
Under is 21-8-2 in Trojans last 31 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 36-15 in Trojans last 51 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
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Penn State
Over is 5-1 in Nittany Lions last 6 games overall.
Over is 5-1 in Nittany Lions last 6 games following a straight up win.
Over is 5-1 in Nittany Lions last 6 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-1 in Nittany Lions last 5 neutral site games.
Over is 4-1 in Nittany Lions last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 7-2 in Nittany Lions last 9 games on grass.
Over is 9-3 in Nittany Lions last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.
When: 8:30 PM ET, Monday, January 2, 2017 Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL STORYLINES
1. Auburn and Oklahoma each began the season by losing two of their first three games, but regrouped in a big way and cap off the season by meeting in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans on Jan. 2. Auburn used a six-game winning streak in the middle of the season to get on track and should have the services of some key players who battled late-season injuries. The Sooners enter the Superdome riding a nine-game winning streak and look to topple their third consecutive ranked opponent following lopsided wins against West Virginia and Oklahoma State.
2. Auburn quarterback Sean White missed the last two games with a shoulder injury after playing through pain the previous two games, but coach Gus Malzahn told reporters Dec. 14 that White "looks ready to go, didn't miss a beat" as Auburn began its bowl preparations. Kamryn Pettway, the Tigers' 6-foot, 240-pound sophomore running back, missed two games late in the season with a quad injury and didn't record a carry or reception in two others, but still has 1,123 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on the season. He returned for the regular-season finale against top-ranked Alabama and was held to 17 yards on 12 carries in the 30-12 loss, but three weeks to heal and three more weeks of practice should have Pettway back in peak form.
3. Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting after throwing for 3,669 yards and 38 touchdowns with eight interceptions, and has a talented go-to receiver in Dede Westbrook, the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year who enters the game with 74 catches for 1,465 yards and 16 touchdowns. The Sooners also have a pair of running backs who can pile up yardage, but it might be interesting how they use Joe Mixon (1,183 yards, nine touchdowns), who gained national attention this week after the release of a 2014 video that showed him punch a female Oklahoma student, an incident which led to a misdemeanor assault charge. Samaje Perine, who missed three conference games with a leg injury, combined for 499 rushing yards in the last three games, putting him within 26 yards of going over 1,000 yards for a third straight season.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Oklahoma -3 O/U 64.5
ABOUT AUBURN (8-4, 5-3, SEC): Kerryon Johnson has been a fantastic fill-in and change-of-pace running back for the Tigers, piling up 862 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns during the season. Auburn isn't as talented at the receiver positions, but the Tigers do have plenty of options as eight different players caught from 10 to 29 passes this season. Defensively, they seem to get stronger as games go on, allowing only 35 points in the fourth quarter this season.
ABOUT OKLAHOMA (10-2, 9-0 Big 12): Linebacker Jordan Evans and cornerback Jordan Thomas were selected to the all-Big 12 first team. Evans is the leader of the unit and posted four interceptions on the season, returning two for touchdowns, and Thomas broke up a conference-leading 16 passes on the season. Another defender Auburn needs to track is defensive end Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, who finished third in the conference with nine sacks, though he produced only three in the last six games.
[h=3]ATS Trends[/h]
Auburn
Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.
Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games.
Tigers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
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Oklahoma
Sooners are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Sooners are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
Sooners are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 bowl games.
Sooners are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Sooners are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Sooners are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in January.
Sooners are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Sooners are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
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[h=3]OU Trends[/h]
Auburn
Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games overall.
Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 Monday games.
Under is 2-0-2 in Tigers last 4 neutral site games.
Under is 6-1-2 in Tigers last 9 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1-1 in Tigers last 7 games in January.
Under is 9-2-1 in Tigers last 12 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 13-3-2 in Tigers last 18 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 8-2-1 in Tigers last 11 Bowl games.
Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 12-3-1 in Tigers last 16 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 8-2-1 in Tigers last 11 bowl games.
Under is 3-1-1 in Tigers last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 3-1-1 in Tigers last 5 games on fieldturf.
Under is 7-3 in Tigers last 10 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
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Oklahoma
Under is 6-1 in Sooners last 7 vs. SEC.
Under is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 games following a straight up win.
Under is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 neutral site games.
Under is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 bowl games.
Under is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 22-6-1 in Sooners last 29 games on fieldturf.
Over is 12-4 in Sooners last 16 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Sooners last 7 games in January.
Over is 5-2 in Sooners last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: No. 15 Western Michigan vs. No. 8 Wisconsin (1 p.m., ESPN, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas)
P.J. Fleck's Boat Rowers are 2-0 against Big Ten teams this season, and star wide receiver Corey Davis will challenge a Wisconsin secondary that showed cracks against Penn State. But Wisconsin's run game and defensive front seven make the difference in the second half as Corey Clement eclipses 200 rush yards against WMU. Wisconsin 36, Western Michigan 24.
Outback Bowl: No. 17 Florida vs. Iowa (1 p.m., ABC, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida)
The Gators' season will end the same way as last year -- SEC East division title, lopsided losses to Florida State and to Alabama in the SEC title game, and a bowl loss -- although their bowl performance will be better this time. Points will be scarce, but the current Big Ten quarterback (Iowa's C.J. Beathard) outplays the former Big Ten quarterback (Florida's Austin Appleby) as the Hawkeyes prevail. Iowa 17, Florida 14.
Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual: No. 9 USC vs. No. 5 Penn State (5 p.m., ESPN, Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California)
No two coaches led better in-season turnarounds than USC's Clay Helton and PSU's James Franklin thanks in large part to quarterbacks Sam Darnold (USC) and Trace McSorley (PSU). Both teams and both quarterbacks are hot, and both have dynamic running backs (Saquon Barkley at Penn State and Justin Davis at USC) and receivers (USC's JuJu Smith-Schuster and Penn State's DaeSean Hamilton). Expect a shootout, but USC mounts a late drive for the win. USC 38, Penn State 36.
Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 14 Auburn vs. No. 7 Oklahoma (8:30 p.m., ESPN, Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans)
Auburn's defense gives the Tigers a real chance here, but Oklahoma simply has too much firepower, and its own defense made strides down the stretch. Both teams can run the ball effectively, but the Sooners have a massive edge at quarterback with Baker Mayfield, who channels predecessor Trevor Knight in outclassing an SEC team from Alabama in New Orleans. Oklahoma 34, Auburn 29.
