Ok so since they weren't listed they're above the 36% threshold. Interesting.
?. Totally agree
The Zags are one of my pre-season teams. I believe pre-season rankings are very important but what not many pay attention to. Shows team strength for important reasons such as transfer portal players, returning starters, etc to name a couple. Which may explain why tourney #1 seeds that aren't high in the pre-season rankings such as Alabama and Purdue this year and the teams i posted the last 5 years don't win it all and get eliminated usually early with a couple exceptions.
@exploited17 later tonight I'll throw out some very interesting Kenpom numbers for the last 20 years regarding past champions. It will really narrow the list. Very interesting and informative to me if you add it to what has already been mentioned in the thread. I appreciate you contributing. Its hard to come by lately in the forum.
Great info in this thread.Gonzaga or Houston could win it all but History is not on their side.Only mid major to win it last 50 years is UNLV in 91.Zags have best offense in country by the #s, but it is a little skewed as they play in the WCC.To their credit they do play a tough out of conf. schedule.Houston great guards and a nice freshman in Walker but i do think when you play in a weaker conference you do not get battle tested as much as the 6 power conferences. And typically those conferences have more depth and NBA players, Houston is a bit undersized but aggressiveness and physical play maybe can makeup for that. I will be surprised if either win it all, but if Houston gets to Final 4, it will help playing right in Houston.I just think Gonzagas D is just to weak to win it all.Timme really cannot guard ball screens at all, great adjustment last night when Few started doubling Miles to take the ball out of his hands as he was getting whatever he wanted until they forced him to give it up away from the basket.Last 50 years mid majors are 1-12 SU when reaching the final game.Zags 0-2, Butler 0-2,Houston 0-2,Memphis,Memphis st.,Indiana st.,Utah,Jville, and Marquette when I think they were not in power conf. with Al Mcguire.All those teams lost once in championship game.Tough for Mid majors to win it, even though they have narrowed the gap considerably the last 30 years.That being said before Tourney started I thought one of these 5 would win it.Bama,Texas,Uconn,Houston or Zags.Still think one of 1st 3 but we will see.Zags D sucks but they have some guys that can fill it up from distance and they have been there with better overall teams, but not as good of a shooting team as this one.
Zags beat Bama earlier in the year, but Miller was not the player he is now.I don t know if not that high of a ranking is that meaningful when a player like Miller looks like the best player in the country now,But That certainly would not be said about him early in the year.I think Bama has the Best shot to cut the nets down.They really defend hard and can cause a lot of problems for most teams with their length.
Below is the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Rank (AdjO) and the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Rank (AdjD) of the NCAA Champions since 2002. I'll list this season's tourney info at the bottom with the remaining teams that are still alive and playing.
As you will see below, all champions (except for Uconn on offense in 2014) were in the top 20 or so in both AdjO & AdjD Efficiency for the regular season for the last 20 seasons. BOLD teams qualify as of today.
Year - Team - AdjO - AdjD
2022 - Kansas - #6 - #17
2021 - Baylor - #2 - #22
2020 - Canceled Tourney
2019 - Virginia - #2 - #5
2018 - Villanova - #1 - #11
2017 - N. Carolina - #9 - #11
2016 - Villanova - #3 - #5
2015 - Duke - #3 - #11
2014 - Uconn - #39 - #10
2013 - Louisville - #7 - #1
2012 - Kentucky - #2 - #7
2011 - Uconn - #19 - #15
2010 - Duke - #1 - #5
2009 - N. Carolina - #1 - #18
2008 - Kansas - #2 - #1
2007 - Florida - #1 - #13
2006 - Florida - #3 - #7
2005 - N. Carolina - #2 - #5
2004 - Uconn - #9 - #6
2003 - Syracuse - #17 - #14
2002 - Maryland - #4 - #7
2023 - Alabama - #18 - #3
2023 - San Diego State - #70 - #5 (out based on AdjO)
2023 - Creighton - #23 - #13
2023 - Princeton- #100 - #96 (out based on AdjO & AdjD)
2023 - FAU - #30 - #35 (out based on AdjO & AdjD)
2023 - Tennessee - #60 - #1 (out based on AdjO)
2023 - Kansas State - #47 - #17 (out based on AdjO)
2023 - Michigan Stare - #38 - #31 (out based on AdjO & AdjD)
2023 - Houston - #9 - #4
2023 - Miami, Fla - #11 - #108 (out based on AdjD)
2023 - Xavier - #7 - #63 (out based on AdjD)
2023 - Texas - #15 - #10
2023 - Arkansas - #51 - #15 (out based on AdjO)
2023 - Uconn - #3 - #14
2023 - Gonzaga - #1 - #75 (out based on AdjD)
2023 - UCLA - #21 - #2
As you can see, Houston is one of the qualifiers and also has the lowest combined AdjO & AdjD. If you read my previous info in this thread they also are the only team that qualifies with pre-season rank/pre-tourney rank/Tourney seed that is still in the tourney.
All the info I've posted in this thread can be used to pick a future's champion or used for individual wagers for the rest of the tourney. I hope someone can use this to help with their wagers.
GL
As you will see below, all champions (except for Uconn on offense in 2014) were in the top 20 or so in both AdjO & AdjD Efficiency for the regular season for the last 20 seasons. BOLD teams qualify as of today.
Year - Team - AdjO - AdjD
2022 - Kansas - #6 - #17
2021 - Baylor - #2 - #22
2020 - Canceled Tourney
2019 - Virginia - #2 - #5
2018 - Villanova - #1 - #11
2017 - N. Carolina - #9 - #11
2016 - Villanova - #3 - #5
2015 - Duke - #3 - #11
2014 - Uconn - #39 - #10
2013 - Louisville - #7 - #1
2012 - Kentucky - #2 - #7
2011 - Uconn - #19 - #15
2010 - Duke - #1 - #5
2009 - N. Carolina - #1 - #18
2008 - Kansas - #2 - #1
2007 - Florida - #1 - #13
2006 - Florida - #3 - #7
2005 - N. Carolina - #2 - #5
2004 - Uconn - #9 - #6
2003 - Syracuse - #17 - #14
2002 - Maryland - #4 - #7
2023 - Alabama - #18 - #3
2023 - San Diego State - #70 - #5 (out based on AdjO)
2023 - Creighton - #23 - #13
2023 - Princeton- #100 - #96 (out based on AdjO & AdjD)
2023 - FAU - #30 - #35 (out based on AdjO & AdjD)
2023 - Tennessee - #60 - #1 (out based on AdjO)
2023 - Kansas State - #47 - #17 (out based on AdjO)
2023 - Michigan Stare - #38 - #31 (out based on AdjO & AdjD)
2023 - Houston - #9 - #4
2023 - Miami, Fla - #11 - #108 (out based on AdjD)
2023 - Xavier - #7 - #63 (out based on AdjD)
2023 - Texas - #15 - #10
2023 - Arkansas - #51 - #15 (out based on AdjO)
2023 - Uconn - #3 - #14
2023 - Gonzaga - #1 - #75 (out based on AdjD)
2023 - UCLA - #21 - #2
As you can see, Houston is one of the qualifiers and also has the lowest combined AdjO & AdjD. If you read my previous info in this thread they also are the only team that qualifies with pre-season rank/pre-tourney rank/Tourney seed that is still in the tourney.
All the info I've posted in this thread can be used to pick a future's champion or used for individual wagers for the rest of the tourney. I hope someone can use this to help with their wagers.
GL
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The champion was the top 10 in both AdjO & AdjD in 10 of the 20 seasons.
The champion was in the top 10 in AdjO in 15 of the 20 seasons.
The champion was in the top 10 in AdjD in 11 of the 20 seasons.
The champion was in the top 10 in AdjO in 15 of the 20 seasons.
The champion was in the top 10 in AdjD in 11 of the 20 seasons.
Everything is pointing to Houston with the remaining teams so far from what my research shows.
Here's more back testing of what I said I would provide.
•Since 2011 #1 seeds who were NOT qualifiers are 0-18, 0% to cut down the nets in the final game.
•Since 2003 #1 seeds who were NOT qualifiers are 1-28, 3%, to cut down the nets in the final game.
•2 teams lost in 1st Round, 8 teams lost in 2nd Round, 8 teams lost in Sweet 16, 6 teams lost in Elite 8, 2 teams lost in Final 4, 1 team lost in Final and 1 team won the Final.
2023 - #1Purdue - Lost in 1st round
2023- #1 Alabama - ?
2022 - #1Arizona - Lost in Sweet 16
2022 - #1Baylor - Lost in 2nd Round
2021 - #1 Illinois - Lost in 2nd Round
2021 - #1Michigan - Lost in Elite 8
2019 - #1N. Carolina - Lost in Sweet 16
2018 - #1Virginia - Lost in 1st Round
2018 - #1Xavier - Lost in 2nd Round
2017 - #1Gonzaga - Lost in Final 4
2016 - #1Oregon - Lost in Elite 8
2015 - #1Villanova - Lost in 2nd Round
2014 - #1Florida - Lost in Final 4
2014 - #1Virginia - Lost in Sweet 16
2014 - #1Wichita State - Lost in 2nd Round
2013 - #1Gonzaga - Lost in 2nd Round
2013 - #1Kansas - Lost in Sweet 16
2012 - #1Michigan State - Lost in Sweet 16
2011 - #1Kansas - Lost in Elite 8
2010 - #1Syracuse - Lost in Sweet 16
2010 - #1Duke - Won Championship 61-59
2007 - #1Ohio State - Lost in Final
2006 - #1Memphis - Lost in Elite 8
2005 - #1Washington - Lost in Sweet 16
2005 - #1Duke - Lost in Sweet 16
2004 - #1Kentucky Lost in 2nd Round
2004 - #1St. Josephs - Lost in Elite 8
2004 - #1Stanford - Lost in 2nd Round
2003 - #1Kentucky - Lost in Elite 8
•Since 2011 #1 seeds who were NOT qualifiers are 0-18, 0% to cut down the nets in the final game.
•Since 2003 #1 seeds who were NOT qualifiers are 1-28, 3%, to cut down the nets in the final game.
•2 teams lost in 1st Round, 8 teams lost in 2nd Round, 8 teams lost in Sweet 16, 6 teams lost in Elite 8, 2 teams lost in Final 4, 1 team lost in Final and 1 team won the Final.
2023 - #1Purdue - Lost in 1st round
2023- #1 Alabama - ?
2022 - #1Arizona - Lost in Sweet 16
2022 - #1Baylor - Lost in 2nd Round
2021 - #1 Illinois - Lost in 2nd Round
2021 - #1Michigan - Lost in Elite 8
2019 - #1N. Carolina - Lost in Sweet 16
2018 - #1Virginia - Lost in 1st Round
2018 - #1Xavier - Lost in 2nd Round
2017 - #1Gonzaga - Lost in Final 4
2016 - #1Oregon - Lost in Elite 8
2015 - #1Villanova - Lost in 2nd Round
2014 - #1Florida - Lost in Final 4
2014 - #1Virginia - Lost in Sweet 16
2014 - #1Wichita State - Lost in 2nd Round
2013 - #1Gonzaga - Lost in 2nd Round
2013 - #1Kansas - Lost in Sweet 16
2012 - #1Michigan State - Lost in Sweet 16
2011 - #1Kansas - Lost in Elite 8
2010 - #1Syracuse - Lost in Sweet 16
2010 - #1Duke - Won Championship 61-59
2007 - #1Ohio State - Lost in Final
2006 - #1Memphis - Lost in Elite 8
2005 - #1Washington - Lost in Sweet 16
2005 - #1Duke - Lost in Sweet 16
2004 - #1Kentucky Lost in 2nd Round
2004 - #1St. Josephs - Lost in Elite 8
2004 - #1Stanford - Lost in 2nd Round
2003 - #1Kentucky - Lost in Elite 8
2.46 Avg tournament wins
