College Basketball Champion (re-post)

[Loves2kickass]

I posted this in a different thread but am not going to search for it. I'll just re-post instead.

2023 Champion Pre-Season Qualifiers
Kentucky, Gonzaga, Baylor, North Carolina, Kansas, Houston

2023 Champion Pre-Tourney Qualifiers
Kentucky, Gonzaga, Baylor, Kansas, Houston

2023 Champion #1 Seed Fades (will not be the champion)
Purdue, Alabama


2023 Champion
Top Tier
Kansas (OUT)
Houston

Bottom Tier
Kentucky (OUT)
Baylor (OUT)
Gonzaga

 

[Loves2kickass]

I know this is a lot to digest but wanted to provide the info and explain the best i can.. In my previous post I back tested 5 years. @exploited17 asked about prior seasons beyond that so I went back 10 seasons, excluding the covid season in 2020 as the tourney was canceled. This is what my research shows.

8 of the last 10 NCAA touraments have been won by a #1 seed AND who were in the top 6 in pre-season AP poll, pre-season BPI & pre-tourney AP poll.

The 2 outliers were 2014 Uconn & 2016 Villanova. In 2014 Uconn defeated Kentucky, a pre-season qualifier only and in 2016 Villanova defeated N. Carolina who was a full qualifier in all criteria. Pre-season and pre-tourney rank & tourney seed.

Below is all the info I've researched, including the qualifiers for this season. Houston and Kansas the 2 qualifying teams with just HOUSTON remaining. I also have Gonzaga listed only because they were a pre-season qualifier but did not qualify with their tourney seed and pre-tourney rank.

Past Champions
Year - Team - Pre-season # - Pre-Tourney # - Tourney Seed

2023 - Houston - #3 - #2 - #1 Seed
2023 - Kansas - #5 - #4 - #1 Seed (Eliminated)
2023 - Gonzaga - #2 - #9 - #3 Seed

2022 - Kansas - #3 - #3 - #1 Seed
2021 - Baylor - #2 - #3 - #1 Seed
2019 - Virginia - #5 - #2 - #1 Seed
2018 - Villanova - #6 - #2 - #1 Seed
2017 - N. Carolina - #6 - #6 - #1 Seed
2016 - Villanova - #11 - #3 - #2 Seed
Defeated
2016 - N. Carolina - #1 - #2 - #1 Seed
2015 - Duke - #4 - #2 - #1 Seed
2014 - Uconn - #18 - #21 - #7 Seed
Defeated
2014 -Kentucky - #1 - #NR - #8 Seed
2013 - Louisville - #2 - #4 - #1 Seed
2012 - Kentucky - #2 - #1 - #1 Seed

 

[Loves2kickass]

I'll post the back tested info i have for the #1 tourney seeds who were NON-QUALIFIERS and how they finished in the tourneys, what round they lost etc.

 

[exploited17]

Only 2 teams since 1998 won it all with 8 or more losses
Both UCONN
Both those teams at least made it to Conference tournament finals
Not sure if that means anything

 

[Loves2kickass]

Only 2 teams since 1998 won it all with 8 or more losses
Both UCONN
Both those teams at least made it to Conference tournament finals
Not sure if that means anything

That would eliminate Creighton, Princeton, Tennessee, Kansas State, Michigan State, Texas, Xavier, Uconn and Arkansas.

Still alive are Houston, Alabama, San Diego State, FAU, Miami, Gonzaga and UCLA

 

[Loves2kickass]

Here's the second part of what I previously posted.

Dating back 5 seasons, #1 seeds who were NOT qualifiers (top 6 pre-season & top 6 pre-tourney) are 0-9 to cut down the nets in the final game.

2023 - #1Purdue - Lost in 1st round
2023- #1 Alabama - ?

2022 - #1Arizona - Lost in Sweet 16
2022 - #1Baylor - Lost in 2nd Round
2021 - #1 Illinois - Lost in 2nd Round
2021 - #1Michigan - Lost in Elite 8
2019 - #1N. Carolina - Lost in Sweet 16
2018 - #1Virginia - Lost in 1st Round
2018 - #1Xavier - Lost in 2nd Round
2017 - #1Gonzaga - Lost in Final 4

 

[Loves2kickass]

@exploited17 with what we both posted were down to Houston, San Diego State, FAU, Miami, Gonzaga and UCLA.

Houston and Gonzaga still remain but HOUSTON appears to me as the champion, with Kansas eliminated, if form holds true. There's always outliers and nothing obviously is perfect. For next season I'll back test further.

I hope someone can take this information and use it to possibly make some money or use it as a fun, futures wager.

GL

 

[exploited17]

Can't completely eliminate them but likely I think
Probably can eliminate FAU and SD ST too as far as winning it all imo

 

[Loves2kickass]

Only 2 teams since 1998 won it all with 8 or more losses
Both UCONN
Both those teams at least made it to Conference tournament finals
Not sure if that means anything

I didn't check to see if Houston, Alabama, San Diego State, FAU, Miami, Gonzaga and UCLA made it to their respective Conf tourney final. Do you know off the top of your head.

 

[exploited17]

That would eliminate Creighton, Princeton, Tennessee, Kansas State, Michigan State, Texas, Xavier, Uconn and Arkansas.

No I mean can't eliminate them all completely because they have 8 or more but Xavier and Texas made Conference final

 

[Loves2kickass]

No I mean can't eliminate them all completely because they have 8 or more but Xavier and Texas made Conference final

Deleted respone. Ok so could add back Xavier and Texas for the hell of it lol

 

[exploited17]

Didn't UCLA also

I am just referring to teams with 8 or more losses because UCONN was the outlier to win with 8 or more. But noticed they at least made their tournament final. Don't know if that means anything. Just thought I would throw it out there

 

[Loves2kickass]

I see ok

 

[Loves2kickass]

Pre tourney I had a future on Kansas and left out Houston cause I didn't know the injury status of Sasser. Looks like he's healthy and playing and with Kansas now out I'm personally going to get a Houston future's ticket.

If not them cutting down the nets it will be an outlier like it was in 2 of the last 10 seasons that I posted. I like my chances.

 

[Loves2kickass]

I'm also going to fade Alabama on the money line and double until they lose. History repeats itself.

 

[exploited17]

I bumped his thread
This is interesting

8 Straight Champs Shot 36 % or Higher	….......	….................
3 Point Percentage	….......	….................
35.40%	….......	Marquette
35.30%	….......	San Diego St
35.20%	….......	Houston
34.90%	….......	UCLA
34.80%	….......	Kansas
34.50%	….......	Texas
34.40%	….......	Memphis
33.90%	….......	Alabama
33.60%	….......	VCU
32.90%	….......	Duke
32.70%	….......	Purdue
32.60%	….......	Tennessee
32.10%	….......	Arkansas
31.40%	….......	Auburn
31.00%	….......	N Carolina
27.30%	….......	Miss State

Report
LikeQuote

 

[Loves2kickass]

@exploited17 hopefully Houston isn't on the top of the list for the MGM ticket and money count as a fade lol

 

[Loves2kickass]

I bumped his thread
This is interesting

8 Straight Champs Shot 36 % or Higher	….......	….................
3 Point Percentage	….......	….................
35.40%	….......	Marquette
35.30%	….......	San Diego St
35.20%	….......	Houston
34.90%	….......	UCLA
34.80%	….......	Kansas
34.50%	….......	Texas
34.40%	….......	Memphis
33.90%	….......	Alabama
33.60%	….......	VCU
32.90%	….......	Duke
32.70%	….......	Purdue
32.60%	….......	Tennessee
32.10%	….......	Arkansas
31.40%	….......	Auburn
31.00%	….......	N Carolina
27.30%	….......	Miss State

Report
LikeQuote

I guess they're all eliminated? Lol

 

[exploited17]

Xavier
Gonzaga

 

[exploited17]

Like I said not big on futures but this stuff can all be used for individula games