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[CNOTES]

Big 12 college football betting preview: TCU will score, but will it be enough?


The Baylor Bears, returning a bevy of starters this season, are the favorites to win the Big 12. But will they be able stop Trevone Boykin and the TCU Horned Frogs?


Expert AAA Sports breaks down the best ways to wager on the Big 12 and gives his season win total picks for each of its members heading into the new college football campaign.




Baylor Bears (2014: 11-2 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)


Odds to win conference: 5-2
Season win total: 10


Why bet the Bears: Why not? Baylor brings back just about everyone except quarterback Bryce Petty, and the Bears will go into just about every game this season knowing that they will be able to bully their opponents on both sides of the line.


Why not bet the Bears: A trio of cupcakes early in the season (SMU, Lamar and Rice) could create a false sense of security for when the real games start in October. At least whoever is calling signals will be able to get his feet wet without too much pressure.


Season win total pick: Over 10




Texas Christian Horned Frogs (2014: 12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS)


Odds to win conference: 4-1
Season win total: 10


Why bet the Horned Frogs: TCU will put up points. A lot of points. Trevone Boykin is back at QB after finishing fourth in the country in total offense last season. Top wideout Josh Doctson also returns after setting single-season school record for TD catches and yards. Yikes.


Why not bet the Horned Frogs: The other side of the ball is a problem, especially at linebacker. TCU uses only two LBs, and both of them will be newbies after the departures of standouts Paul Dawson and Chris Hackett. May take a while before TCU can stop decent offenses.


Season win total pick: Push




Oklahoma Sooners (2014: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)


Odds to win conference: 4-1
Season win total: 9


Why bet the Sooners: After a step-back and somewhat disappointing 2014 season, OSU revamped its offense. Lincoln Riley moves in from East Carolina as OC and will give the Sooners a wide-open offense. And if that doesn’t work, they can just hand off to Samaje Perine, one of the best in the Big 12.


Why not bet the Sooners: Questions are everywhere in a program that was once of the top 5 in the country. Might be a good idea to stay off this team, which must play at Oklahoma State, Tennessee, Kansas State and Baylor. Ouch.


Season win total pick: Under 9




Oklahoma State Cowboys (2014: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)


Odds to win conference: 5-1
Season win total: 7


Why bet the Cowboys: Things are looking up in Stillwater, where the Cowboys surprised even themselves by finishing over .500 and defeating Washington in the Cactus Bowl in what was expected to be a serious rebuild. QB Mason Rudolph, who figured to red-shirt last season but was pressed into service, is a good one. Defense isn’t bad, either.


Why not bet the Cowboys: Careful here. OSU gave up 47 more points than it scored last season, and even that number was inflated by a meaningless 30-point victory over Texas-San Antonio.


Season win total pick: Under 7




Texas Longhorns (2014: 6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS)


Odds to win conference: 7-1
Season win total: 6.5


Why bet the Longhorns: Should be value to be had here because Texas is just not perceived as a Top-25 program anymore. But Charlie Strong has some talent, and as road wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State proved last season, the guy can coach.


Why not bet the Longhorns: Texas averaged only 21.7 points a game last season, and while the spread offense this year will be new, there is no guarantee it will be better. The Longhorns were beaten by Baylor, Kansas State and TCU by an average score of 33-16 in 2014.


Season win total pick: Over 6.5




Kansas State Wildcats (2014: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)


Odds to win conference: 10-1
Season win total: 7


Why bet the Wildcats: Does Bill Snyder ever have a bad season? Somehow Snyder managed to cajole nine wins out of last year’s squad, and no one should bet too heavily against him finding a way to keep the Cats in the mix this season.


Why not bet the Wildcats: Kansas State may be the only big-time program in the country with a starting QB who has never played the positon at any level. Joe Hubener looks like the No. 1 QB at this point, and the walk-on played several other positions in high school, but not quarterback.


Season win total pick: Over 7




West Virginia Mountaineers (2014: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)


Odds to win conference: 15-1
Season win total: 8


Why bet the Mountaineers: WVU will score – it always does. QB Skyler Howard will get nothing but better and running back Rushel Shell could be one of the top backs in the country if he stays healthy – he had 788 on the ground last season despite fighting a sprained ankle for much of the season. Defense has to plug a few holes, but should be among the best in the conference.


Why not bet the Mountaineers: Hopes always seem high at WVU, but the math is irrefutable – the Mountaineers are 18-20 in their last three seasons and are firmly ensconced in the middle of the conference. They’re probably two recruiting classes from serious contention.


Season win total pick: Over 8




Texas Tech Red Raiders (2014: 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS)


Odds to win conference: 20-1
Season win total: 6


Why bet the Red Raiders: Last season could have been a bit of an aberration. Tech never really got things going, lost some games early due to turnovers, and the whole somehow seemed smaller than the sum of its parts. The Raiders were better than their record showed, and they have a solid offensive line to start with this year.


Why not bet the Red Raiders: There’s instability at the QB position, where neither Patrick Mahome nr Davis Webb has been able to separate from the other. Then there’s the defense, which allowed more points than any team in the conference last season (495) and seems capable of allowing 50-plus on any given Saturday.


Season win total pick: Under 6




Iowa State Cyclones (2014: 2-10 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)


Odds to win conference: 25-1
Season win total: 3


Why bet the Cyclones: Iowa State is your basic Dollar Store team. You might be able to find some value if you look hard enough. The Cyclones should be able to move the ball pretty well, led by veteran QB Sam Richardson and a group of pretty good wideouts.


Why not bet the Cyclones: Any program that has won a total of five games in the last two seasons has problems. Another dumpster fire will probably cost Paul Rhoads his job. Rhoads will have his hands trying to repair damage in the offensive line and a defense that ranked 125th in the country last year.


Season win total pick: Over 3




Kansas Jayhawks (2014: 2-10 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)


Odds to win conference: 25-1
Season win total: 3


Why bet the Jayhawks: Because either you have a lot of money that you don’t need to pay bills, you graduated from Kansas or you regret not being alive to watch the carnage in Rome’s Colosseum.


Why not bet the Jayhawks: All you need to know about Kansas is that only five starters return from a team that wasn’t very good last season and will probably be worse this time around. Coach David Beaty should probably spend a lot of his time on the recruiting trail, because he has one of the most difficult rebuilds in the country on his hands.


Season win total pick: Under 3

 

[CNOTES]

MLB Consensus Picks


SIDES (ATS)


Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds


7:05 PM Cincinnati +134 381 28.67% Washington -145 948 71.33% View View


8:10 PM Tampa Bay +115 348 29.42% Kansas City -124 835 70.58% View View


7:05 PM San Diego +126 430 31.92% Pittsburgh -137 917 68.08% View View


2:10 PM Tampa Bay +109 219 32.93% Kansas City -118 446 67.07% View View


10:10 PM Philadelphia +267 387 33.16% LA Dodgers -295 780 66.84% View View


8:05 PM Arizona +120 404 33.20% Texas -130 813 66.80% View View


1:20 PM St. Louis +149 217 38.48% Chi. Cubs -162 347 61.52% View View


7:10 PM Miami +206 521 42.81% Boston -225 696 57.19% View View


10:15 PM NY Mets +114 560 45.45% San Francisco -123 672 54.55% View View


8:10 PM Atlanta +134 372 48.56% Milwaukee -145 394 51.44% View View


7:05 PM Oakland -114 630 49.41% NY Yankees +105 645 50.59% View View


10:10 PM Detroit +168 574 50.13% Seattle -183 571 49.87% View View


7:10 PM Houston +168 641 51.53% Cleveland -183 603 48.47% View View


8:10 PM Baltimore -125 635 53.50% Minnesota +115 552 46.50% View View


8:10 PM Toronto -123 706 60.34% Chi. White Sox +114 464 39.66% View View


8:05 PM St. Louis -118 464 61.87% Chi. Cubs +109 286 38.13% View View


8:40 PM LA Angels -110 778 63.72% Colorado +102 443 36.28% View View


TOTALS (OVER/UNDER)


Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds


7:05 PM Oakland 8 293 36.26% NY Yankees 8 515 63.74% View View


7:05 PM San Diego 7 323 44.07% Pittsburgh 7 410 55.93% View View


8:10 PM Tampa Bay 7 209 44.75% Kansas City 7 258 55.25% View View


2:10 PM Tampa Bay 7 175 46.79% Kansas City 7 199 53.21% View View


8:10 PM Baltimore 7 334 47.31% Minnesota 7 372 52.69% View View


7:10 PM Miami 9 348 48.00% Boston 9 377 52.00% View View


7:05 PM Cincinnati 6 324 48.72% Washington 6 341 51.28% View View


10:15 PM NY Mets 7 373 51.10% San Francisco 7 357 48.90% View View


1:20 PM St. Louis 6 150 52.45% Chi. Cubs 6 136 47.55% View View


8:05 PM Arizona 8.5 383 53.34% Texas 8.5 335 46.66% View View


8:10 PM Atlanta 7.5 261 53.81% Milwaukee 7.5 224 46.19% View View


8:40 PM LA Angels 10.5 421 55.47% Colorado 10.5 338 44.53% View View


10:10 PM Detroit 7.5 442 59.33% Seattle 7.5 303 40.67% View View


8:05 PM St. Louis 7 256 59.53% Chi. Cubs 7 174 40.47% View View


8:10 PM Toronto 8.5 449 60.84% Chi. White Sox 8.5 289 39.16% View View


10:10 PM Philadelphia 7 459 62.62% LA Dodgers 7 274 37.38% View View


7:10 PM Houston 7 474 66.29% Cleveland 7 241 33.71% View View

 

[CNOTES]

TUESDAY, JULY 7


Game Score Status Pick Amount


Tulsa - 8:00 PM ET Tulsa +5.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY


Atlanta - Over 152.5 500 SLAM DUNK




WNBA Consensus Picks


SIDES (ATS)


Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds


8:00 PM Tulsa +5.5 342 49.21% Atlanta -5.5 353 50.79% View View




TOTALS (OVER/UNDER)


Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds


8:00 PM Tulsa 152.5 322 52.70% Atlanta 152.5 289 47.30% View View

 

[CNOTES]

Diamond Trends - Tuesday


July 7, 2015




SU TREND OF THE DAY:


-- The Yankees are 13-0 SU since Apr 16, 2011 at home when they are off a game in which they hit into at least three double plays.




PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:


-- When Max Scherzer starts teams are 0-8 OU since 2013 when the total is under seven and he allowed at least one run last start.


MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:


-- The Yankees are 16-0 (+$1,600) since September 2011 if they are not -190+ favorites, after a game where they committed at least three errors and allowed at least five hits.


CHOICE TREND:


-- The Orioles are 0-11 SU since May 11, 2013 after an extra inning road game and it is not the first game of a series.


ACTIVE TRENDS:


-- The Astros are 9-0 SU Sep 11, 2013 as a dog and after a 5+ run road win and it is not the first game of a series.

 

[CNOTES]

Royals, Rays hook up


July 7, 2015


Check out more Odds at Sportsbook.ag!


TAMPA BAY RAYS (43-41) at KANSAS CITY ROYALS (46-33)


Sportsbook.ag Line: Kansas City -125, Tampa Bay +115, Total: 7.5


In the second game of a double header, the AL Central leading Kansas City Royals will take on the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium.


The Rays have played much of this season in first place of the AL East, but a recent stretch of 11 losses in their last 14 games has knocked them down to third in the division; two games behind the Yankees. They have lost each of their last four series, three of which were against AL East opponents while also being swept over four games against the Cleveland Indians. They nearly took a sweep at the hands of the division leading Yankees in their last time out, but were able to pull out a nice 8-1 win on Sunday behind nine hits and help from New York’s three errors.


Going into Tuesday, 3B Evan Longoria (.277) was riding a four-game hitting streak and has multiple knocks in four of his last 10 outings. The Royals are once again the pacesetters for the central division, but have struggled recently with a 2-5 record since June 29th. After being swept by the Astros, they went back home and split four games with their divisional foes; the Twins. Each of their victories came by way of a 3-2 score and they did so on Sunday when they had just four hits and won on a walk-off double from 1B Eric Hosmer (.278).


Tampa Bay seems to get solid pitchers out of nowhere and one of them will be starting this game in the form of RHP Matt Andriese (3-2, 3.24 ERA) as he goes against RHP Edinson Volquez (8-4, 3.48 ERA) of the host team. Before Tuesday’s early game, the Rays had compiled a 23-16 road record, but it could prove difficult to improve on that mark against a Kansas City team which is 24-15 at home. The two clubs have seen each other 13 times since the start of the 2013 campaign with the Royals dominating to the tune of a 10-3 record while going 5-1 at home during the stretch.


Trends show that Tampa Bay is 11-3 (.786) in July road games over the past two seasons while the Royals are 85-22 (.794) when the money line is +125 to -125 in the same timeframe. The trio of 2B Tim Beckham (Hamstring), OF Desmond Jennings (Knee) and C John Jaso (Wrist) are currently riding the DL as the situations of 3B Mike Moustakas (Personal) and OF Lorenzo Cain (Hamstring) are something to watch leading up to first pitch.


Andriese had a solid yet unspectacular minor league career leading up to the 2015 season, but injuries and a solid performance at triple-A (2.88 ERA in six games) earned him a trip to Tampa Bay. He’s made the most of his time with the team, showing great control (1.5 BB/9) in his 41.2 frames, but has yet to pitch more than six innings in any of his outings. Things could move in the other direction as the season progresses with batters currently hitting a measly .267 BABIP as he shows limited strikeout ability (5.8 K/9) and the propensity to give up the long ball (1.30 HR/9).


Andriese should feel great after his last start in which he threw six innings of shutout baseball, giving up just one hit with five strikeouts (0 walks) against Boston. He has not seen the Royals in his short career and could benefit from both Moustakas (.301) and Cain (.305) missing the game as they lead the team in average and have 51 combined extra-base hits and a collective 5.2 WAR. On the other side of things, 2B Omar Infante (.231) is having his worst year since 2007 with his lowest ISO (.076) since his sophomore campaign and his highest strikeout rate (15.8%) since 2007.


The Rays bullpen has gone 14-17 with a 3.88 ERA (1.31 WHIP) and are 34-for-42 (81%) in save chances. Brad Boxberger (2.48 ERA, 20 saves) is currently manning the ninth inning and is 20-for-22 (91%) in his save opportunities while striking out 45 batters in 32.2 innings.


Volquez has bounced around a bunch since the past five seasons as a member of five different teams with ineffective results until last year. He had an ERA greater than 4.10 in each campaign from 2009-2013 as he struggled immensely from control, but he has dropped his walks down to a career low mark in each of the last two seasons, posting better than a 3.50 ERA each time. His strikeouts have taken a hit (6.9 K/9) compared to his career average of 8.0 K/9, but he has allowed very few homers (0.66 HR/9) as his HR/FB% is at a career-low mark of 7.4%.


In his career against Tampa Bay, Volquez has gone 2-0 (2-1 team record) with a 2.66 ERA (1.03 WHIP) and was great (8 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 K) in a victory over them last year. SS Asdrubel Cabrera (3-for-8, 1 HR, 2 RBI), 3B Evan Longoria (3-for-9, 3 RBI) and OF Grady Sizemore (2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI) have had success in limited at-bats against the righty while 1B James Loney (2-for-15, 3 K) has had his issues in the matchup. Kansas City owns the best bullpen in baseball right now and they are 14-5 with a 2.03 ERA (1.03 WHIP), successfully saving 25-of-34 (74%) games. Greg Holland (2.74 ERA, 16 saves) has one blown save on the year while giving up a mere 12 hits in his 23 innings on the mound.