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[CNOTES]

WNBA Finals 2015 Presented By Boost Mobile Primer


October 1, 2015


The WNBA Finals 2015 presented by Boost Mobile tip on Sunday, October 4. For the second time in four seasons, it’s the Indiana Fever vs. the Minnesota Lynx for the WNBA Championship.


Here is what you need to know about this series:


Game 1: IND @ MIN | Sunday, Oct. 4 | 3 PM ET | ABC | WatchESPN


Game 2: IND @ MIN | Tuesday, Oct. 6 | 8 PM ET | ESPN 2 | WatchESPN


Game 3: MIN @ IND | Friday, Oct. 9 | 8 PM ET | ESPN 2 | WatchESPN


Game 4*: MIN @ IND | Sunday, Oct. 11 | 8:30 PM ET | ESPN | WatchESPN


Game 5*: IND @ MIN | Wednesday, Oct. 14 | 8 PM ET | ESPN 2 | WatchESPN


Series Format


The WNBA Finals follow a best-of-five format. The team with the better regular-season record hosts Games 1, 2 and 5, while the lower-seeded team hosts Games 3 and 4.


Projected Starters


Indiana Fever
G Briann January
G Shenise Johnson
F Marissa Coleman
F Tamika Catchings
C Erlana Larkins


Minnesota Lynx
G Lindsay Whalen
G Seimone Augustus
F Maya Moore
F Rebekkah Brunson
C Sylvia Fowles


Head to Head


Regular Season
The Lynx lead the all-time series, 18-12, including 2-0 in 2015:
June 6 — Lynx 78, Fever 69
Sept. 4 — Lynx 81, Fever 65


WNBA Finals Rematch
These teams previously met in the 2012 WNBA Finals, which the Fever won in four games. More from 2012


Finals History


Indiana Fever
This is Indiana’s third WNBA Finals appearance:


2009 — Lost to Phoenix Mercury, 3-2
2012 — Defeated Minnesota Lynx, 3-1




Minnesota Lynx
This is Minnesota’s fourth WNBA Finals appearance:


2011 — Defeated Atlanta Dream, 3-0
2012 — Lost to Indiana Fever, 3-1
2013 — Defeated Atlanta Dream, 3-0
Click here for the full list of all-time WNBA Finals Results


Notable Stats


Indiana Fever
77.7 points per game (T-3rd)
75.8 points allowed per game (6th)
102.4 Offensive Rating (3rd)
99.9 Defensive Rating (5th)
75.3 possessions per 40 minutes (3rd)
36% three-point shooting (1st)
21.4 free throw attempts per game (2nd)


Minnesota Lynx
75.5 points per game (5th)
71.7 points allowed per game (3rd)
101.3 Offensive Rating (3rd)
96.3 Defensive Rating (2nd)
74.2 possessions per 40 minutes (8th)
18.2 assists per game (2nd)
13.2 turnovers per game (6th)


How They Got Here


Indiana Fever
No. 3 seed in Eastern Conference
Defeated Chicago Sky, 2-1
Defeated New York Liberty, 2-1
Click here for more


Minnesota Lynx
No. 1 seed in Western Conference
Defeated Los Angeles Sparks, 2-1
Defeated Phoenix Mercury, 2-0
Click here for more

 

[CNOTES]

Lynx, Fever meet in rematch of 2012 Finals


October 3, 2015


MINNEAPOLIS (AP) Maya Moore and the Minnesota Lynx waltzed into the 2012 WNBA Finals ready for a coronation.


It was supposed to be the beginning of a dynasty, with the powerful Lynx sure to overwhelm heavy underdog Indiana for their second straight championship.


Tamika Catchings had other ideas.


Catchings and the Fever took it to the defending champions, stunning them in Game 1 in Minnesota and taking the best-of-five series 3-1 for the franchise's first championship.


Three years later, the two teams are meeting again. And this time, Moore said the Lynx will be ready for them.


''Coming into the finals that year, feeling like we weren't as mentally tough as we needed to be,'' Moore said. ''It was a great lesson for us. It's just exciting for us to get back here and get another opportunity to be even better than we were, not just in 2012 but in any year we've been here.''


The Lynx are in the finals for the fourth time in five years. They rebounded after the 2012 disappointment to win their second title, but lost to Phoenix in the Western Conference finals last season to miss out on their fourth straight finals trip.


The Lynx swept the Mercury in the Western finals this season, but they have expressed little interest in the revenge angle that was brought up before that series and is resurfacing again this time around as the two teams prepare for Game 1 on Sunday in Minneapolis. It's more about redemption for the Lynx, who don't believe they gave the best accounting of themselves in that series against the Fever.


''I think it's just easy to remember those feelings of feeling like we didn't play up to the ability that we could,'' Moore said. ''They totally fought and earned those wins. But wanting to end the season better than how we performed that year is something we can easily draw on as motivation.


''But I don't think we even need that this year. We're hungry. We're playing hard and playing well and we understand what it takes by learning through our mistakes this year.''


The Fever enter the series on a roll themselves and with a similar chip on their collective shoulder. They beat the top-seeded Liberty in the Eastern Conference finals, coming back from 18 down in Game 2 to force a series-deciding Game 3 in New York that they won easily.


''We just have to believe in ourselves and not worry about what anyone else says,'' Catchings said. ''We know what we're capable of doing. If we play defense the way we're capable of and on offense move the ball and everything's clicking there's no one who can beat us. It's all about believing. Believe in the system and believe in your teammates.''


The Lynx dealt with injuries to key players for much of the season and entered the playoffs with the starting group of Moore, Seimone Augustus, Lindsay Whalen, Rebekkah Brunson and Sylvia Fowles having played a total of 52 minutes together in the regular season.


Moore suffered a broken nose late in the regular season while Augustus and Whalen each missed big chunks of times with injuries. Somehow, the Lynx still managed to post the best record in the West, and the homecourt advantage that came with it proved key in the first two series.


''My black eye's gone, but it's still there underneath,'' Moore said. ''We've definitely been battle-tested, which is great.''


Catchings and the rugged Fever will test them some more. One of the greatest stars the league has ever seen said she is retiring after next season, so the sense of urgency has never been higher for her.


''It's going to take a lot more than what we just did in the last two series,'' Catchings said. ''Our focus needs to be a lot more fine-tuned. They got a lot of really good players. Getting down to the details and staying focused, stay in the moment. Every single possession matters.''

 

[CNOTES]

At the Gate - Sunday


October 4, 2015


By the end of the day, we will have just one Breeders’ Cup Challenge race left to be decided, with a pair coming up on NBC this afternoon.

After today’s $250,000 Bourbon (G3) and $500,000 Spinster (G1), the “Win and You’re In” series comes to a close with Wednesday’s running of the $150,000 Jessamine (G3) at Keeneland.

Today’s Spinster winner earns an automatic starting spot in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) and features the winners of the last two Kentucky Oaks (G1), this year’s winner Lovely Maria and last year’s champ Untapable.

Lovely Maria has lost twice since winning the Oaks back in May, a dull fifth in the Delaware Oaks (G3) followed by a sixth in the Alabama (G1).

Untapable won six of seven races last year including the Distaff, but since that win has only managed to win one of her last five starts. She was third last out in the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga.

The biggest threat to those two is Frivolous, who won the Locust Grove in her last start at Churchill Downs by eight lengths.


The Bourbon is one of the best wagering races on the day, drawing a full field of 14 along with two also-eligbles.

Hot Ore is the lukewarm 9-2 morning line favorite off a runner up finish in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf. He broke her maiden on turf in her previous outing.

The Chad Brown trained Camelot Kitten is worth a look off his maiden score. The colt has a solid pedigree, by Kitten's Joy out of a Forestry mare that has dropped three other turf winners and two of them are stakes winners, top earner Bobby's Kitten ($1.2 million). The barn seems to be winning every turf stake recently and is always tough with second time starters.

Both races will be telecast on NBC at 5:00 ET.

Here is today’s opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Md $40,000 (12:55 ET)
#8 Smok'n Stroll 5-1
#1 Northern Screamer 4-1
#6 Star of the Nile 8-1
#7 Hundred Year Storm 7-2

Analysis: Smok'n Stroll gets the call in the opener if we are back on turf today. The $85,000 purchase makes her debut for the Pletcher barn that is 23% winners first off the claim. She is by Stroll out of a Pentelicus mare that has dropped four foals to race including a pair of turf winners. This gal has been working quickly including a bullet drill on Sept. 5. The barn has not used the bug Cancel much.

Northern Screamer makes her turf debut here in her fifth career start. She is coming off a game second last out as the beaten chalk for a $20,000 tag here on the main track. She was claimed out of the race by the Asmussen barn that is 18% winners first off the claim. She is out of a Belong to Me mare that has dropped a pair of winners including one turf winner. The barn is 17% winners moving runners from dirt to turf.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 1,8 / 1,6,7,8
TRI: 1,8 / 1,6,7,8 / 1,2,6,7,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:

KEE Race 9 The Spinster G1 (5:45 ET)
#1 Lovely Maria 7-2
#9 Frivolous 9-2
#3 Untapable 9-5
#4 Got Lucky 7-2

Analysis: Lovely Maria has lost two in a row since taking the Kentucky Oaks (G1) back in May. She won the Ashland (G1) over the main track here at the spring meeting. Her trainer Larry Jones said she may have been feeling the effects of a flu bug going through the barn when she failed to fire in the Delaware Oaks (G3) and last out she faded to finish sixth in the Alabama (G1) at 1 1/4 miles, which looks as if is just too far for her. She cuts back to nine furlongs here and looking for her to rebound on a surface she is proven over.

Frivolous rolled to an eight length win last out in the Locust Grove at Churchill Downs in a good-looking effort. She ran a good second in the Delaware Oaks behind Sheer Drama, who came back to win the Personal Ensign (G1) in her next outing on Aug. 29 at Saratoga. She comes in here in the best form of her career and may end up offering decent value as the two Oaks winners figure to garner most of the attention at the betting windows.

Untapable has lost three in a row now and looks as if she may have lost a step or two from last year where she won six of seven starts including the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1). She came up short late last out in a third place finish in the Personal Ensign and was no match for Stopchargingmaria two back in the Shuvee Handicap (G3). This will be her first trip over the main track here. Her best is good enough but her price is going to be on the short side.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,9 / 1,3,4,9
TRI: 1,9 / 1,3,4,9 / 1,3,4,6,9

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 7 Alw $62,000N1X (4:13 ET)
#1 Banana Thief 7-2
#2 Frisky Magician 3-1
#10 Ogermeister 6-1
#11 Chasintheblues 10-1

Analysis: Banana Thief cuts back from seven furlongs where she had the lead heading for home but was run down late and had to settle for the runner up spot. She handled the less than firm conditions last out well and should catch similar here today if we get back on the grass. She broke her maiden over ground labeled as good at the Spa last September and looks headed in the right direction for Asmussen.

Frisky Magician went gate to wire to break his maiden last out in his fourth career start going 5 1/2 at the Spa. He was beaten a nose two back by Wicked Freud who is in the field here. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers but there is plenty of early zip in here to keep him company. He has shown improvement in each outing and does not need to move forward all that much off his maiden score to be in the mix in this spot.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,10,11
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,10,11 / 1,2,4,10,11

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R1: #6 Star of the Nile 8-1
R5: #3 The Giant Is Lit 12-1
R6: #6 Bene Pista 8-1
R6: #4 Go and Wander 12-1
R7: #11 Chasintheblues 10-1
R9: #7 Nile Princess 12-1

Good luck today!

 

[CNOTES]

AAA 400 Preview


October 1, 2015


The greatest thing about the current Chase format unveiled last season, where we have three different elimination stages, is the drama it creates. We have storylines like we've never seen before in NASCAR at such an early stage before the championship is decided. For the first 26 races, we get to witness who might be the best equipped to handle these situations, but there's nothing quite like added pressure to create an intriguing storyline.

We've got eight races to go until a champion is crowned, but an early October race at Dover has so many title implications such as last year’s champ Kevin Harvick being on the brink of elimination. Kyle Busch wowed us all in late June and early July by winning four of five races, but he's outside looking in -- only one point outside of 12th-place. Can Harvick duplicate his feat at Phoenix last fall in a win or go-home situation and can Busch shed his trend of being a complete zero in the Chase over his career?

In Sunday's AAA 400 at Dover, we'll find out a lot of those answers as four of the 16 Chase drivers will be eliminated. Two drivers, Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth, are locked in to advance on the basis of each winning the first two races of the Chase and another will advance if winning Sunday's race.

We've got a lot of things to consider before selecting a winner for Sunday based on several circumstances. Do you go with the hot driver or team that has been running well lately? Do you go with the driver who has had the most all-time success at Dover's high banked 1-mile concrete layout? Or do you go with a few of the drivers that are in desperation mode, who have to win to advance to the next round?

Harvick is the key driver in desperation mode this week as he sits in 15th-place, 23 points behind the 12th and final position to advance. For the second straight week Harvick experienced some bad luck, this time while leading at New Hampshire with three laps to go before running out of fuel. He dominated the race leading 216 of the 300 laps, but his gas man didn't get enough fuel in the tank during the final pit stop.

During the regular season, Harvick had 18 top-five finishes in 26 races to lead the field. In the playoffs, he hasn't cracked the top-20 yet and now he needs to win at Dover to advance, a place he's never won at in 29 career starts. However, he did finish second in the first race held there this season on May 31.

That first Dover race was also the last time we've seen Jimmie Johnson win a race. It was Johnson's fourth win of the season, which at the time was twice as many as anyone else in the series had. But Johnson hasn't won since then. In fact, no Chevrolet driver has won in the past 11 races as the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota's have won 10 of the past 13 races. The Penske Fords have two wins over that stretch with Joey Logano. The last Chevy to win was Dale Earnhardt Jr. at Daytona over the Fourth of July weekend. It's a drought seldom seen out of Chevrolet and it's happening at the wrong time with a championship on the line.

The good news for the guys in bow ties is that Johnson is the all-time leader in wins at Dover with 10 in 27 starts. That's one win in every 2.7 starts, an insane ratio for any driver in any series to have had occur for so long. He's won three of the past four there and his 7.8 average finish is also the best among all drivers, but current form counts for something and Johnson and Chevy just don't have their things together right now. Johnson has never looked so ordinary heading into a Dover race over his entire career.

Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook manager Ed Salmons said he's going to make Johnson the favorite this week just because the public always bets Johnson feversihly at Dover due to that 2.7 win ratio, but says that "Harvick should be the favorite."

Last season when Harvick had to have a win to advance from Phoenix into the Championship Race at Homestead, he came through. But Phoenix also was a place where no one was better than Harvick. Dover is a little different. Still, Salmons has kept Harvick's Sprint Cup odds relatively low at 12/1 odds showing he is somewhat confident the champ will advance despite the deficit.

We can say goodbye to Clint Bowyer's championship hopes this week, but after that it's murky. Will Paul Menard have a decent showing as he sits one point out of 12th? Is Dale Earnhardt Jr. safe in 12th-place? Will Jamie McMurray hang on to 11th? And what driver that looks comfortable right now will have that dreaded mishap or run of bad luck like Harvick has had in the first two races. As far as Harvick's concerned, he hopes the entire field wrecks.

Of course the drivers in great form right now are the JGR drivers, especially Matt Kenseth who grabbed his fifth win of the season on Sunday. It was his fourth win in the past eight races. He's had two wins over his career at Dover along with 15 top-fives in 33 starts. He is on a roll and should be a factor on Sunday as well. His teammate Carl Edwards won at Dover in 2007 and has the second best average finish (10.60) behind Johnson. Denny Hamlin has never at Dover while Kyle Busch has two wins. For Busch, he needs a great run to advance to the next Chase round because he's currently 1-point out of the 12th and final advance position.

Because Dover is unlike any other track on the circuit there isn't much to compare it to, but I do like to throw in a small sample of what happened at Bristol's high-banked half-mile layout because the set-up requirements are similar and crew chiefs often use the same chassis' at both facilities. Logano won last month at Bristol and Kenseth won his first race of the season there in April.

Logano's teammate, Brad Keselowski, won at Dover during his championship run in 2012 and was runner-up in both races last season. He's also a driver that has had success at Bristol over his career and should run enough Sunday to possibly grab his second win of the season.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #48 Jimmie Johnson (5/1)
2) #4 Kevin Harvick (5/1)
3) #20 Matt Kenseth (7/1)
4) #2 Brad Keselowski (10/1)
5) #22 Joey Logano (8/1)

 

[CNOTES]

Daily Slants - Sunday


October 3, 2015


It's Week 4 of the National Football League regular season, or roughly the quarter pole. We also had our first byes of the season, as DFS players will have to make do without the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans. For Fantasy purposes, losing the Titans is no big deal, but not having QB Tom Brady, RB Dion Lewis and, certainly, TE Rob Gronkowski is a huge loss. However, there are still plenty of choices. Also, remember to finalize those lineups before 9:30am ET in some pools, as the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets kick off at London's Wembley Stadium in early action.


There are plenty of quarterback injuries to worry DFS players and Fantasy owners heading into Week 4. The biggest concern is Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck (shoulder - QUEST), who is dealing with a right shoulder injury. He is still listed as questionable for the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the team is obviously being very careful about giving away too much information. That might still be good news for Luck and Colts fans, but it is a situation to avoid for DFS players. Colts WR T.Y. Hilton (knee - PROB) is expected to play, but his DFS outlook is attached to the status of Luck. Stay tuned.


New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees (shoulder - PROB) missed last week's game with a right shoulder injury, but he is probable for this weekend's game against the Dallas Cowboys. He is expected to throw for coaches in pre-game warmups to confirm he is ready. DFS players can safely use him, as there is little reason to believe he will not be able to go.


Among the running backs, DFS players might finally have Houston Texas RB Arian Foster (groin - QUEST) for the first time this season. That's great news against an Atlanta Falcons rush defense which has given up plenty of big plays and touchdowns to opposing running backs. Still, it's probably best to wait to see Foster go through a full game, if he indeed plays, before risking a roster spot on him. Let him make it through the game without any setbacks or restrictions before trusting him again. If he is deemed inactive again, RB Alfred Blue ($10,100) is a slam-dunk DFS play against this leaky Falcons run D.


Other stud running backs with better outlooks are Green Bay Packers RB Eddie Lacy (ankle - PROB) and Seattle Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch (hamstring - QUEST). Each are expected to be just fine for their Week 4 contests, and you can safely use them. While the Packers have the luxury of using RB James Starks ($8,200) to spell Lacy, the starter is still expected to see 15-20 touches. Lynch was deemed questionable by head coach Pete Carroll, and he said Saturday there is a "60-40" chance the stud suits up Monday against Detroit. If Lynch cannot go it would be a combination of RBs Fred Jackson ($6,000) and Thomas Rawls ($6,700). Neither is a recommended DFS option, and Lynch has too murky of an outlook to depend upon.


Cardinals RB Andre Ellington (knee - QUEST) is expected back, but head coach Bruce Arians said even if Ellington plays aginst the St. Louis Rams that RB Chris Johnson ($10,350) will see his fair share of touches. Still, a timeshare is never good for anyone for DFS purposes. In Atlanta there are no concerns or worries about a timeshare, as Falcons RB Devonta Freeman (toe - PROB) practiced in full Friday and he is ready to face the Houston Texans while RB Tevin Coleman (ribs - OUT) is sidelined for a second straight game. Freeman punched in three touchdowns last week in Dallas.


Among the wide receivers, the Packers have a couple of big names on the injury report. WR Randall Cobb (shoulder - QUEST) is a concern, while fellow WR Davante Adams (ankle - QUEST) is also a question mark. While Cobb is worth using if he is active, Adams has been active for the past two games and he has left each game after aggravating his injury. The Packers promoted WR Jared Abbrederis from the practice squad for Sunday's game, so that makes the outlook bleak for Adams. Bears WR Alshon Jeffery (hamstring - QUEST) is expected to play in the Week 4 game against the Raiders, although it's uncertain if his QB Jay Cutler (hamstring - QUEST) will be joining him. If QB Jimmy Clausen ($10,000) starts again, even if Jeffery is active he isn't worth using. If you were worried about the hamstring of Atlanta Falcons WR Julio Jones (hamstring - PROB), relax. He is playing.


Other notable injuries: Bills RB LeSean McCoy (hip - OUT), WR Percy Harvin (hip - PROB), WR Sammy Watkins (calf - OUT), Browns QB Josh McCown (hand - PROB), WR Travis Benjamin (ribs - PROB), Buccaneers QB Doug Martin (knee, quadriceps - QUEST), TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (shoulder - DOUBT), Cardinals WR John Brown (shoulder - PROB), Chargers TE Ladarius Green (concussion - QUEST), Colts TE Dwayne Allen (ankle - QUEST), Cowboys TE Jason Witten (ankle, knee - PROB), Dolphins TE Jordan Cameron (groin - QUEST), Eagles RB DeMarco Murray (hamstring - QUEST), 49ers RB Reggie Bush (calf - PROB), TE Vernon Davis (knee - DOUBT), Giants WR Victor Cruz (knee - OUT), Jaguars WR Allen Hurns (thigh - PROB), WR Marqise Lee (hamstring - OUT), Jets WR Eric Decker (knee - QUEST), RB Chris Ivory (quadriceps - PROB), Lions RB Joique Bell (ankle - OUT), Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart (leg - PROB), Rams WR Kenny Britt (shoulder - PROB), Redskins WR DeSean Jackson (hamstring - OUT), Saints WR Brandin Cooks (ankle - PROB) and Vikings WR Charles Johnson (ribs - OUT)


I've been asked about these rankings before, so let me clarify. The weekly rankings by position are not necessarily your Top 10 players in a seasonal format. However, the rankings are formulated based on projected points per DFS dollars spent, or which players are the best values based upon their salaries.


Pro Football
Sunday, October 4, 2014


TV Listings · Sunday's Pro Football ScheduleWeekly Rankings


QUARTERBACKS
Rank Player Team VI Salary Opponent
1 Andy Dalton Cincinnati $16,550 Kansas City
2 Cam Newton Carolina $18,250 at Tampa Bay
3 Matt Ryan Atlanta $18,250 Houston
4 * - Andrew Luck Indianapolis $18,200 Jacksonville
5 Eli Manning N.Y. Giants $15,600 at Buffalo
6 Aaron Rodgers Green Bay $20,160 at San Francisco
7 Russell Wilson Seattle $17,650 Detroit (MNF)
8 Philip Rivers San Diego $15,250 Cleveland
9 Derek Carr Oakland $13,900 at Chicago
10 Tyrod Taylor Buffalo $15,900 N.Y. Giants
* - Questionable due to injury, double-check Sunday AM


RUNNING BACKS
Rank Player Team VI Salary Opponent
1 Adrian Peterson Minnesota $17,650 at Denver
2 Frank Gore Indianapolis $12,100 Jacksonville
3 Melvin Gordon San Diego $10,000 Cleveland
4 Eddie Lacy Green Bay $13,850 at San Francisco
5 Mark Ingram New Orleans $13,200 Dallas (SNF)
6 Karlos Williams Buffalo $9,360 N.Y. Giants
7 Isaiah Crowell Cleveland $7,450 at San Diego
8 Jonathan Stewart Carolina $10,200 at Tampa Bay
9 x - Alfred Blue Houston $10,100 at Atlanta
10 Carlos Hyde San Francisco $13,050 Green Bay
x - If Arian Foster (groin) is inactive


WIDE RECEIVERS
Rank Player Team VI Salary Opponent
1 A.J. Green Cincinnati $16,450 Kansas City
2 Odell Beckham Jr. N.Y. Giants $17,300 at Buffalo
3 * - Randall Cobb Green Bay $14,150 at San Francisco
4 Julio Jones Atlanta $22,500 Houston
5 Keenan Allen San Diego $15,900 Cleveland
6 Larry Fitzgerald Arizona $15,950 St. Louis
7 Amari Cooper Oakland $12,400 at Chicago
8 Jeremy Maclin Kansas City $11,200 at Cincinnati
9 Jordan Matthews Philadelphia $14,650 at Washington
10 Calvin Johnson Detroit $14,400 at Seattle (MNF)
* - Questionable due to injury, double-check Sunday AM


TIGHT ENDS
Rank Player Team VI Salary Opponent
1 Martellus Bennett Chicago $9,350 Oakland
2 Jason Witten Dallas $13,000 at New Orleans (SNF)
3 Jimmy Graham Seattle $12,650 Detroit (MNF)
4 Travis Kelce Kansas City $12,650 at Cincinnati
5 Greg Olsen Carolina $13,350 at Tampa Bay
6 Charles Clay Buffalo $8,850 N.Y. Giants
7 Tyler Eifert Cincinnati $11,650 Kansas City
8 Coby Fleener Indianapolis $6,100 Jacksonville
9 Eric Ebron Detroit $7,350 at Seattle (MNF)
10 Larry Donnell N.Y. Giants $6,600 at Buffalo


DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS (DST)
Rank Team VI Salary Opponent
1 Carolina Panthers $9,600 at Tampa Bay
2 Seattle Seahawks $9,350 Detroit (MNF)
3 Arizona Cardinals $9,350 St. Louis
4 Denver Broncos $11,050 Minnesota
5 Philadelphia Eagles $7,800 at Washington
6 Green Bay Packers $7,300 at San Francisco
7 Cincinnati Bengals $7,700 Kansas City
8 Buffalo Bills $7,900 N.Y. Giants
9 Oakland Raiders $6,000 at Chicago
10 Houston Texans $6,500 at Atlanta
* - Questionable on Injury Report. Double-check status Sunday before finalizing lineup.


DOBISH'S DAILY FANTASY REPORT CARD AND LINEUP


When a lineup is submitted in the previous weeks' column, we'll take an honest look back and grade each pick based upon amount of salary paid plus production, etc.


LAST WEEK'S LINEUP AND GRADES


QB - Nick Foles, St. Louis ($14,100 vs PIT) -- D-
RB - Latavius Murray, Oakland ($11,150 at CLE) -- A
RB - Devonta Freeman, Atlanta ($10,350 at DAL) -- A+
WR - Julian Edelman, New England ($14,750 vs JAX) -- B
WR - Travis Benjamin, Cleveland ($11,100 vs OAK) -- B+
TE - Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota ($7,900 vs SD) -- D-
FLEX - Darren Sproles, Philadelphia ($9,150 at NYJ) -- A+
FLEX - Brandon Marshall, N.Y. Jets ($12,000 vs PHI) -- A
DEF - New England Patriots ($8,950 vs JAX) -- C


THIS WEEK'S LINEUP


QB - Andy Dalton, Cincinnati ($16,550 vs KC)
RB - Karlos Williams, Buffalo ($9,350 vs NYG)
RB - Melvin Gordon, San Diego ($10,000 vs CLE)
WR - A.J. Green, Cincinnati ($16,450 vs KC)
WR - Amari Cooper, Oakland ($12,400 at CHI)
TE - Martellus Bennett, Chicago ($9,350 vs OAK)
FLEX - Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland ($7,450 at SD)
FLEX - Marvin Jones, Cincinnati ($8,150 vs KC)
DEF - Carolina Panthers ($9,600 at TB)

 

[CNOTES]

DFS NFL Values - Week 4


October 1, 2015


NFL


Week 4 - National TV schedule
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (THU - CBS/NFL Network, 8:25 p.m.)
Dallas at New Orleans(SUN - NBC, 8:30 p.m.)
Detroit at Seattle (MON - ESPN, 8:30 p.m.)


BIG-TICKET ITEM (Salaries $15,000 and Above)


Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati ($16,550 vs. KC): The 'Red Rifle' tore apart the Ravens in Baltimore last Sunday, throwing for 383 yards and three touchdowns, two to his favorite target A.J. Green (see below). Dalton has multi-TD games in each of his three starts while throwing just one interception. There is little reason to doubt the good times will come to a halt in Week 4, as the Chiefs defense has given up an NFL-high 10 passing touchdowns, with an opposing QB Rating of 101.9. The Chiefs have also allowed an average of 307.7 yards passing per game. It should be another big week for the Bengals passing offense.


A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati ($16,450 vs. KC): Did you like what you saw from Green in Week 3 at Baltimore when he went for 10 receptions, 227 yards and two touchdowns? Well, you might be seeing another giant game from the Bengals receiver at home in Week 4. Statistically, the Chiefs are even worse against opposing tight ends, allowing 750 receiving yards, an NFL-high nine touchdowns and 57 receptions to opposing tight ends. Only the Ravens allow more yardage (782). It might be another banner week for Green and his DFS owners, although he certainly more expensive than Week 3.


MID-LEVEL VALUES (Salaries between $10,000 and $14,999)


Alfred Blue, RB, Houston ($10,100 at ATL): Blue rolled up 139 rushing yards with a touchdown in Week 3 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and could have another giant game. The Atlanta Falcons rushing defense has struggled mightily against opposing backs, allowing 264 rushing yards and seven touchdown runs, most in the NFL. They have also been hit pretty hard by tailbacks catching out of the backfield, although that's not Blue's strong suit. Keep an eye on the status of Arian Foster (groin), who is a game-time decision for this weekend's game. If Foster ($9,850) is active, then he is the play here, although it is expected the Texans will give him one more week to recuperate.


Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland ($12,400 at CHI): If the Raiders are to win this week at Chicago, it is time to start taking the Raiders seriously. DFS owners are already taking Cooper seriously, as he has quickly emerged as a go-to option. He has back-to-back games with at least 109 receiving yards, and he has 15 receptions and 22 targets during the span. The Bears have given up seven touchdown receptions to opposing wide receivers, most in the NFC. If Cooper doesn't find his way into the Soldier Field end zone this weekend it will be shocking.


Frank Gore, RB, Indianapolis ($12,100 vs. JAX): Gore might be getting a little long in the tooth, but he proved he still has a little left in the tank with 86 rushing yards and two touchdowns at Tennessee last Sunday. Jacksonville has given up 212 rushing yards and five touchdowns to opposing backs, so Gore should be good for at least 70-75 yards and a score in this divisional game, putting on a show for the home folks after an inauspicious debut at Lucas Oil in Week 2.


THE BARGAIN BIN (Salaries less than $9,999)


Martellus Bennett, TE, Chicago ($9,350 vs. OAK): You're going to want to make sure to remember Bennett for your Sunday DFS lineups. The Oakland Raiders are the worst team in the NFL in defending the opposing tight end, allowing league-highs in receptions (21), receiving yardage (305) and touchdowns (5) through three games. Cincinnati's Tyler Eifert went for nine grabs, 104 yards and two touchdowns against them in Week 1, Baltimore's Crockett Gillmore posted 88 yards and two scores in Week 2, and Cleveland's Gary Barnidge hit them for 105 yards and a touchdown in Week 3. Bennett is on par with Eifert, and arguably way better than Gillmore and Barnidge. It could be a giant week for Bennett.


Carolina Panthers DST ($9,600 vs. TB): The Panthers are home again looking to run out to a 4-0 record and healthy lead in the NFC South. A big part of their early success has been their lockdown defense. The Panthers have at least one interception in each of their first three games, and they have totaled seven sacks with two fumble recoveries and a defensive touchdown. Overall, the Panthers are allowing 15.3 points per game, which is just slightly less than the Buccaneers are averaging on offense (16.3). Rookie QB Jameis Winston will likely be coaxed into a few mistakes.

 

[CNOTES]

MLB MONEYLINES


MLB > (953) CINCINNATI@ (954) PITTSBURGH | 2015-10-04 15:05:00 - 2015-10-04 15:05:00
Play AGAINST CINCINNATI using money line when playing on Sunday
The record is 4 Wins and 22 Losses for the this season (-19.35 units)


MLB > (973) OAKLAND@ (974) SEATTLE | 2015-10-04 15:10:00 - 2015-10-04 15:10:00
Play AGAINST SEATTLE using money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
The record is 11 Wins and 20 Losses for the last two seasons (-20.25 units)


MLB > (965) LA ANGELS@ (966) TEXAS | 2015-10-04 15:05:00 - 2015-10-04 15:05:00
Play ON TEXAS using money line in games played on a grass field
The record is 84 Wins and 70 Losses for the this season (+28.47 units)


MLB > (979) HOUSTON@ (980) ARIZONA | 2015-10-04 15:10:00 - 2015-10-04 15:10:00
Play AGAINST ARIZONA using money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
The record is 20 Wins and 56 Losses for the last two seasons (-30.28 units)


MLB > (963) SAN DIEGO@ (964) LA DODGERS | 2015-10-04 15:10:00 - 2015-10-04 15:10:00
Play AGAINST LA DODGERS using money line after 3 or more consecutive wins
The record is 19 Wins and 27 Losses for the last two seasons (-20.35 units)


MLB > (975) KANSAS CITY@ (976) MINNESOTA | 2015-10-04 15:10:00 - 2015-10-04 15:10:00
Play ON MINNESOTA using money line in games played on a grass field
The record is 81 Wins and 73 Losses for the this season (+23.55 units)

 

[CNOTES]

MLB RUNLINES


MLB > (969) BOSTON@ (970) CLEVELAND | 2015-10-04 15:10:00 - 2015-10-04 15:10:00
Play AGAINST BOSTON when playing with a day off
The record is 8 Wins and 28 Losses for the last two seasons (-25.55 units)

MLB > (975) KANSAS CITY@ (976) MINNESOTA | 2015-10-04 15:10:00 - 2015-10-04 15:10:00
Play ON KANSAS CITY when playing with a day off
The record is 29 Wins and 11 Losses for the last two seasons (+24.1 units)


MLB > (977) DETROIT@ (978) CHI WHITE SOX | 2015-10-04 15:10:00 - 2015-10-04 15:10:00
Play AGAINST CHI WHITE SOX vs. division opponents
The record is 8 Wins and 28 Losses for the this season (-20.1 units)


MLB > (981) ST LOUIS@ (982) ATLANTA | 2015-10-04 13:10:00 - 2015-10-04 13:10:00
Play AGAINST ATLANTA when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
The record is 12 Wins and 27 Losses for the this season (-19.2 units)


MLB > (961) WASHINGTON@ (962) NY METS | 2015-10-04 15:10:00 - 2015-10-04 15:10:00
Play ON NY METS in day games
The record is 67 Wins and 34 Losses for the last two seasons (+34.6 units)


MLB > (979) HOUSTON@ (980) ARIZONA | 2015-10-04 15:10:00 - 2015-10-04 15:10:00
Play ON HOUSTON in an inter-league game
The record is 15 Wins and 4 Losses for the this season (+12.1 units)


MLB > (971) TORONTO@ (972) TAMPA BAY | 2015-10-04 15:10:00 - 2015-10-04 15:10:00
Play ON TORONTO in games played on artificial turf
The record is 50 Wins and 39 Losses for the this season (+17.7 units)


MLB > (965) LA ANGELS@ (966) TEXAS | 2015-10-04 15:05:00 - 2015-10-04 15:05:00
Play ON TEXAS when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 48 Wins and 23 Losses for the this season (+20.15 units)


MLB > (957) COLORADO@ (958) SAN FRANCISCO | 2015-10-04 15:05:00 - 2015-10-04 15:05:00
Play ON SAN FRANCISCO when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
The record is 25 Wins and 14 Losses for the last two seasons (+16 units)

 

[CNOTES]

MLB TOTALS


MLB > (977) DETROIT@ (978) CHI WHITE SOX | 2015-10-04 15:10:00 - 2015-10-04 15:10:00
Play OVER DETROIT on the total on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5
The record is 25 Overs and 8 Unders for the this season (+17.25 units)


MLB > (975) KANSAS CITY@ (976) MINNESOTA | 2015-10-04 15:10:00 - 2015-10-04 15:10:00
Play UNDER KANSAS CITY on the total when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 15 Overs and 37 Unders for the this season (+19.65 units)


MLB > (969) BOSTON@ (970) CLEVELAND | 2015-10-04 15:10:00 - 2015-10-04 15:10:00
Play OVER CLEVELAND on the total against right-handed starters
The record is 34 Overs and 16 Unders for the this season (+17.15 units)


MLB > (963) SAN DIEGO@ (964) LA DODGERS | 2015-10-04 15:10:00 - 2015-10-04 15:10:00
Play OVER SAN DIEGO on the total in all games
The record is 93 Overs and 62 Unders for the this season (+29.3 units)


MLB > (973) OAKLAND@ (974) SEATTLE | 2015-10-04 15:10:00 - 2015-10-04 15:10:00
Play OVER SEATTLE on the total when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
The record is 21 Overs and 8 Unders for the this season (+12.8 units)


MLB > (971) TORONTO@ (972) TAMPA BAY | 2015-10-04 15:10:00 - 2015-10-04 15:10:00
Play OVER TORONTO on the total in road games
The record is 46 Overs and 27 Unders for the this season (+17.35 units)


MLB > (953) CINCINNATI@ (954) PITTSBURGH | 2015-10-04 15:05:00 - 2015-10-04 15:05:00
Play OVER PITTSBURGH on the total against division opponents
The record is 24 Overs and 11 Unders for the this season (+13.25 units)

 

[CNOTES]

MLB TOP POWERLINES


MLB > (981) ST LOUIS @ (982) ATLANTA | 2015-10-04 13:10:00 - 2015-10-04 13:10:00
Line: ST LOUIS BTB PowerLine: ST LOUIS195
Edge On: ST LOUIS (55)


MLB > (957) COLORADO @ (958) SAN FRANCISCO | 2015-10-04 15:05:00 - 2015-10-04 15:05:00
Line: SAN FRANCISCO-121 BTB PowerLine: SAN FRANCISCO-133
Edge On: SAN FRANCISCO (12)


MLB > (955) MIAMI @ (956) PHILADELPHIA | 2015-10-04 15:05:00 - 2015-10-04 15:05:00
Line: MIAMI BTB PowerLine: MIAMI141
Edge On: MIAMI (11)


MLB > (967) NY YANKEES @ (968) BALTIMORE | 2015-10-04 15:05:00 - 2015-10-04 15:05:00
Line: NY YANKEES BTB PowerLine: NY YANKEES111
Edge On: NY YANKEES (6)


MLB > (971) TORONTO @ (972) TAMPA BAY | 2015-10-04 15:10:00 - 2015-10-04 15:10:00
Line: TORONTO BTB PowerLine: TORONTO270
Edge On: TORONTO (151)


MLB > (977) DETROIT @ (978) CHI WHITE SOX | 2015-10-04 15:10:00 - 2015-10-04 15:10:00
Line: DETROIT BTB PowerLine: DETROIT-105
Edge On: DETROIT (15)


MLB > (969) BOSTON @ (970) CLEVELAND | 2015-10-04 15:10:00 - 2015-10-04 15:10:00
Line: BOSTON BTB PowerLine: BOSTON-124
Edge On: BOSTON (21)


MLB > (975) KANSAS CITY @ (976) MINNESOTA | 2015-10-04 15:10:00 - 2015-10-04 15:10:00
Line: KANSAS CITY BTB PowerLine: KANSAS CITY182
Edge On: KANSAS CITY (36)


MLB > (973) OAKLAND @ (974) SEATTLE | 2015-10-04 15:10:00 - 2015-10-04 15:10:00
Line: OAKLAND BTB PowerLine: OAKLAND115
Edge On: OAKLAND (35)


MLB > (961) WASHINGTON @ (962) NY METS | 2015-10-04 15:10:00 - 2015-10-04 15:10:00
Line: WASHINGTON BTB PowerLine: WASHINGTON-145
Edge On: WASHINGTON (10)


MLB > (951) ST LOUIS @ (952) ATLANTA | 2015-10-04 16:40:00 - 2015-10-04 16:40:00
Line: ST LOUIS BTB PowerLine: ST LOUIS304
Edge On: ST LOUIS (164)

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 4


Game Score Status Pick Amount


NY Yankees - 3:05 PM ET Baltimore +115 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Baltimore - Under 8 500


LA Angels - 3:05 PM ET Texas -130 500 GRAND SLAM
Texas - Under 8.5 500


Cincinnati - 3:05 PM ET Cincinnati +183 500 *****
Pittsburgh - Over 7.5 500


Colorado - 3:05 PM ET San Francisco -132 500 TRIPLE PLAY
San Francisco - Over 7.5 500 DOUBLE GRAND SLAM


Miami - 3:05 PM ET Miami -123 500
Philadelphia - Under 8 500


Boston - 3:10 PM ET Cleveland -118 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Cleveland - Over 7.5 500


Detroit - 3:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox -131 500
Chi. White Sox - Over 8.5 500


Houston - 3:10 PM ET Houston -136 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Arizona - Under 8.5 500


Kansas City - 3:10 PM ET Minnesota +156 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Minnesota - Over 8 500


Oakland - 3:10 PM ET Seattle -141 500
Seattle - Under 8 500


Toronto - 3:10 PM ET Tampa Bay +128 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Tampa Bay - Under 8 500


Chi. Cubs - 3:10 PM ET Chi. Cubs -139 500 GRAND SLAM
Milwaukee - Over 8 500


San Diego - 3:10 PM ET San Diego +297 500 *****
LA Dodgers - Under 6.5 500


Washington - 3:10 PM ET NY Mets -166 500 DOUBLE PLAY
NY Mets - Under 7 500


St. Louis - 4:30 PM ET St. Louis -138 500 DOUBLE GRAND SLAM
Atlanta - Over 7.5 500