Monday's Tip Sheet
August 17, 2015
Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles | 7:05 p.m. ET
It’s no secret that Athletics ace Sonny Gray (12-4, 2.06 ERA) is one of the top road pitchers in the league. He’s already one of the best on the mound overall, hence his outstanding numbers on the year, but Gray takes it to another level when he’s pitching away from the O.co Coliseum. In fact, in his 12 road starts, the AL Cy Young candidate is a remarkable 8-1 with an even more remarkable 1.64 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and he’s averaging a strikeout per inning, owning 82 punch-outs in 82 1/3 total innings away from home. Furthermore, opposing lineups are hitting a microscopic .197 off the right-hander in those outings. Somewhat surprisingly, though, Gray is the +100 underdog here, but that might have something to do with the fact that he was scratched in his last assignment.
Those odds might also be related to the fact that his counterpart this evening, Chris Tillman (8-7, 4.66 ERA), has been absolutely lights-out since the All-Star break. Despite giving up five runs in his last start, Tillman owns a tremendous 2.08 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in his four starts since the break, while opponents have only been able to muster a .167 average against him over that span. He’s also gone seven innings or more in three of those contests, though his most recent effort could foreshadow a regression is ahead. In any event, the over/under for this series opener from Camden Yards is 7.5.
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers 8:05 p.m. ET
The Mariners just finished up a very high-scoring series with the Red Sox over the weekend, one that easily resulted in three overs hitting -- all before the fifth inning, in fact -- and they might be in for more fireworks ahead in their trip to hitter-friendly Arlington. They won’t be facing an easy pitcher, however, as Cole Hamels (6-8, 3.86 ERA) gets set to make his third start as a member of the Rangers since being acquired at the trade deadline. Hamels has been okay for Texas thus far, as despite not registering an official quality start in his first two outings, he’s been pitching deep into games, and owns a 13/3 K/BB ratio in 13 2/3 innings with the Rangers. One of those starts came against these same Mariners, who tagged the veteran southpaw for four runs on eight hits in six innings, including three home runs. Even so, Texas draws the -125 odds as tonight’s favorite.
As a result, the Mariners might be an interesting underdog tonight with flamethrower Taijuan Walker (8-7, 4.60 ERA) toeing the rubber. Walker has exhibited flashes of greatness throughout the season, as many were expecting after the 23-year-old crafted together arguably the best spring training showing of any American League pitcher. Instead, the right-hander followed it up with a lot of inconsistency, but he has settled down since then, having yielded three runs or less in 11 of his past 14 starts. On the final day of July, Walker recorded his first career complete game, doing so against the Twins in the form of a one-hitter, while also striking out 11 batters. That’s Walker’s strength, as he’s logged 132 strikeouts in 135 innings this season, compared to just 35 walks. The over/under for this matchup is 8.5.
San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals | 8:09 p.m. ET (ESPN)
There looks to be a good one on tap for this week’s ESPN Monday Night Baseball, when two perennial National League contenders begin their series at Busch Stadium. For the MLB-best Cardinals, it will be Michael Wacha (14-4, 2.93 ERA) on the hill, enjoying arguably his best campaign to date, which is saying something considering how much he exploded when first arriving on the scene a couple of years ago. He’s simply been fantastic in 2015, and he’s been consistently excellent if you evaluate his full game log, in which he’s surrendered two runs or less in 15 of his 22 starts. In addition, his best work has come at home this year, which is where he finds himself this evening, as Wacha is 6-2 with a 2.56 ERA in his ten outings in front of Cardinals faithful. He’s a -150 favorite this evening.
He’ll be taking on a very game starting pitcher in the series opener, that being rookie Chris Heston (11-7, 3.38 ERA), who has been somewhat of a godsend this year for a team that really needed it within the pitching staff. Without Heston, it’s been a mess at the back-end of the rotation, with disappointing campaigns from the likes of Tim Lincecum, Tim Hudson, Matt Cain, not to mention the lengthy injury stint endured by Jake Peavy. Not only has Heston been very valuable to the Giants, he’s also a dark horse in the NL Rookie of the Year race, with some very solid numbers overall. At the same time, he might be in a tough spot here considering his home-and-road splits, as Heston owns a 4.45 ERA in his 11 starts away from AT&T Park. The over/under is unsurprisingly 7.
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim | 10:05 p.m. ET
Once considered one of the most disappointing teams in baseball this season, the Chicago White Sox have actually been in the process of making things interesting, as they continue to hover around the playoff chase. In fact, at 55-60 on the season, the White Sox are actually just 4.5 games back of the second Wild Card berth, and while they still have to leapfrog over six other American League clubs just to get there, the fact remains they are still very much alive with plenty of time to go. Thus, they have some important dates coming up with one of the teams they’re behind, the Angels, and will turn to hard-throwing rookie Carlos Rodon (5-4, 4.61 ERA) to start it off right. The 22-year-old left-hander has been wildly inconsistent this season, part of which might have to do with his 51 walks in 91 2/3 total innings, but he is coming off his best performance, when he blanked this same Angels club over seven innings and struck out a career-high 11.
The Angels will counter with their own rookie southpaw Andrew Heaney (5-1, 2.53 ERA), who has been much more consistent compared to his counterpart tonight since being called up in the second half June. In actuality, he’s pretty much been as consistent as any starting pitcher in the league, considering he’s made nine starts up to this point, and in eight of them, he yielded two runs or less. Thus, it’s no surprise to see that Los Angeles is 7-2 in games started by Heaney. Things haven’t been as easy for the youngster most recently, though, as the 24-year-old hasn’t logged six innings in each of his last three starts, after doing just that in each of his first six assignments. He’ll carry -140 odds into this one.
