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[CNOTES]

CFL Betting Recap - Week 7


August 9, 2015


League Betting Notes


-- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 SU in Week 7
-- Underdogs went 3-1 ATS in Week 7
-- Home teams posted a 4-0 SU record in Week 7
-- Home teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 7
-- The 'Over' went 3-1 in Week 7



Team Betting Notes


-- Hamilton (4-2) routed visiting Winnipeg (3-4) by a 38-8 score for their third consecutive cover, and fifth in six games overall. The 'under' has also cashed in four in a row, and five of six this season. In addition, Hamilton is 2-0 SU/ATS against Winnipeg. Unfortunately for bettors, they are not scheduled to face each other again in the regular season.


-- The Blue Bombers have been all over the board against the spread this season. They're 3-3-1 ATS, and they haven't covered, or failed to cover, in consecutive games through seven. However, one constant has been their defense, or lack of offense, which has resulted in five straight unders.


-- Ottawa (4-2) continues to give Montreal (2-4) fits, coming from behind Friday for a 26-23 win, their second of the season against the Alouettes. Ottawa is 2-0 SU/ATS against Montreal, and they will meet again Oct. 1 in Canada's capital city.


-- The Alouettes are 3-0-1 ATS against all other opponents, and 0-2 ATS against the RedBlacks. Their 'over' Friday night in Ottawa was the first in six games this season.


-- Saskatchewan (0-7) is not getting the results they obviously hoped for, dropping their seventh straight to open the season. Five of their losses are a combined 16 points, so they're not that far off. Their cover in Toronto (4-2) was not a shocker since they're 8-3 ATS in their past 11 trips to Toronto. The Roughriders get a much-needed bye to regroup before hosting Calgary Aug. 22.


-- Calgary (4-2) was off this past week, but they'll be back in action in Week 8 hosting Ottawa. The Stampeders lost to the RedBlacks 29-26 in Ottawa July 24, also failing to cover. That was the only 'over' for Calgary in six tries, too.


-- Edmonton (4-2) suffered its first loss since Week 1, traveling to BC Lions (3-3) for a 26-23 loss. It also ended a four-game cover streak for the Esks. Edmonton is 3-0 SU/ATS at home, and 1-2 SU/ATS in three road outings.

 

[CNOTES]

Spieth made PGA favorite


August 9, 2015


The fourth and final major of the golf season, the PGA Championship, takes place from Aug. 13-16 at Whistling Straits on the Straits Course in Kohler, Wisconsin.


The field is expected to include 15 past winners, which includes the 2012 and 2014 champion Rory McIlroy.


McIlroy opened as an 8/1 betting choice (Bet $100 to win $800) to repeat this summer in Wisconsin in late July but injury concerns have pushed his odds up to 10/1.


According to the major offshore outfit, the favorite is Jordan Spieth at 11/2 odds which is also up from his opening numbers (5/1).


Some bettors still believe Tiger Woods has a shot and the oddsmakers currently have him listed at a 30/1 betting choice. After his embarrassing performance at the British Open, Woods opened at 60/1 and many pundits believed those odds were too generous. Apparently some bettors are buying his latest efforts, which include an 18th place finish at the Quicken Loans National in late August.


Zach Johnson, winner of the 2015 British Open, is a 50/1 betting choice to capture the PGA Championship.


Listed below are the latest odds per Sportsbook.ag.


Odds to win 2015 PGA Championship (8/13/15) - per Sportsbook.ag


Jordan Spieth 11/2
Rory McIlroy 10/1
Jason Day 12/1
Dustin Johnson 13/1
Adam Scott 15/1
Justin Rose 15/1
Bubba Watson 20/1
Rickie Fowler 22/1
Henrik Stenson 30/1
Phil Mickelson 30/1
Tiger Woods 30/1
Brooks Koepka 40/1
Louis Oosthuizen 40/1
Sergio Garcia 45/1
Hideki Matsuyama 50/1
Jim Furyk 50/1
Martin Kaymer 50/1
Matt Kuchar 50/1
Shane Lowry 50/1
Zach Johnson 50/1
Brandt Snedeker 55/1
Jimmy Walker 55/1
Patrick Reed 55/1
Billy Horschel 65/1
Charl Schwartzel 65/1
JB Holmes 65/1
Keegan Bradley 65/1
Paul Casey 65/1
Bill Haas 80/1
Lee Westwood 80/1
Branden Grace 85/1
Marc Leishman 85/1
Danny Willett 90/1
Danny Lee 100/1
David Lingmerth 100/1
Graeme McDowell 100/1
Jason Dufner 100/1
Justin Thomas 100/1
Kevin Kisner 100/1
Luke Donald 100/1
Ryan Moore 100/1
Francesco Molinari 115/1
Hunter Mahan 115/1
Ian Poulter 115/1
Steve Stricker 115/1
Victor Dubuisson 115/1
Webb Simpson 115/1
Ryan Palmer 120/1
Charley Hoffman 135/1
Bernd Wiesberger 150/1
Brendon Todd 150/1
Byeong-Hun An 150/1
Camilo Villegas 150/1
Gary Woodland 150/1
Geoff Ogilvy 150/1
Graham DeLaet 150/1
Jamie Donaldson 150/1
Kevin Chappell 150/1
Kevin Na 150/1
Nick Watney 150/1
Robert Streb 150/1
Russell Henley 150/1
Brendon de Jonge 175/1
Ernie Els 175/1
Harris English 175/1
John Senden 175/1
Matt Jones 175/1
Padraig Harrington 175/1
Tommy Fleetwood 175/1
Tony Finau 175/1
Angel Cabrera 200/1
Ben Martin 200/1
Jason Bohn 200/1
Daniel Berger 225/1
Jonas Blixt 225/1
Kevin Streelman 225/1
Marc Warren 225/1
Miguel Angel Jimenez 225/1
Russell Knox 225/1
Scott Piercy 225/1
Steven Bowditch 225/1
David Toms 250/1
Boo Weekley 275/1
Cameron Tringale 275/1
James Hahn 275/1
Sang-Moon Bae 275/1
Shawn Stefani 275/1
Stephen Gallacher 275/1
Thomas Bjorn 275/1
Alex Cejka 300/1
YE Yang 300/1
Matt Every 350/1
Vijay Singh 350/1
Colin Montgomerie 500/1
John Daly 500/1
Mikko Ilonen 500/1
Nick Taylor 500/1
Darren Clarke 1000/1

 

[CNOTES]

PGA Championship Preview


August 10, 2015




Let’s face it, the PGA Championship as a major is basically the equivalent of cheese pizza in many people’s eyes. It’s still pizza, but at the end of the day you know there is a more enjoyable version. The British has the history, the US Open is our National Championship, The Masters is…well, the Masters and the poor PGA just always seems to be an afterthought. And honestly, the whole, “Glory’s Last Shot” slogan makes people want to watch that tournament about as much as “Every Kiss Begins With Kay” makes people want to buy a piece of jewelry from Kay Jewelers.


To me though, the irony is that the PGA Championship year in and year out seems to almost always deliver one of the most exciting majors of the year. With the exception of Rory’s run away win at Kiawah in 2012 and Tiger’s mockery of Medinah in 2006, every PGA Championship over the last 20 years has been extremely competitive and entertaining. I still contend the 2000 PGA Championship between Tiger and Bob May ranks in the top 3 best Sunday finishes of any major in the last 30 years.


I do have some serious issues as a whole with the PGA of America though: picking DL III to drive the Titanic back into the iceberg again next year at the Ryder Cup was a genius idea, forgetting how time and sunsets work and thus almost ruining an otherwise great final round of last year’s PGA, and most notably 5 years ago at Whistling Straits when they allowed 4-year-olds to build sand castles in their “bunkers” and then kicked Dustin Johnson in the balls for not realizing he was in said bunker even though no one on the planet did either.


Now the PGA returns this year to Whistling Straits, and frankly I can’t wait. After watching the 2010 final round on replay last week three things really stood out to me (aside from the ridiculous bunker ruling). First, how hard the 18th hole is. I mean that thing is an absolute beast of a golf hole and might be the best/hardest finishing hole they play on the PGA tour. Second, how many chances Rory had on the back nine Sunday and didn’t convert. And finally, I forgot just how good the leaderboard was on Sunday. Rory, Bubba, Day, Mickelson, Kuckar, Kaymer, Zach Johnson and of course Dustin Johnson. (Spieth hadn’t even started his senior year of high school, but probably could have contended) Combine that leaderboard with the fact that 2015 has produced some of the best golf and overall leaderboards in recent years and I expect nothing less than a stellar conclusion to the 2015 majors.


As always, odds below are at the time of posting and are subject to change throughout the week.


As for who won’t win this week:


Rory McIlroy (10/1) – As I said earlier, no one had more chances to win here on Sunday in 2010 than Rory did, and he is a much better and more polished golfer than he was 5 years ago. But he won’t win this week either. The ankle itself isn’t really my concern with Rory this week. The problem I see with Rory is the rust that ankle caused. To me anyway, the more Rory plays, the better he gets. With over a month out of competitive golf I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Rory repeat what he did at Augusta where he barely make the cut on Friday then posts a good round Saturday and an even better round Sunday for another back door top 10. I just think the rust from the layoff will leave him too far back to win this week.


Zach Johnson (50/1) – Believe it or not, ZJ finished T-3 here in 2010, one shot out of the playoff. With that said, the odds of Zach Johnson winning back to back majors has to be closer to 50,000/1 than 50/1. Nothing against Zach, I just don’t see that happening.


Jim Furyk (65/1) – Say what you want about Jim Furyk, the guy is incredibly consistent. He managed to extend his amazing choke streak at the WGC by not closing out his TENTH consecutive 54-hole lead since the 2010 Tour Championship. The amazing part is that in that time span no one else has even had 10 54-hole leads, much less blown them all. In other words, if you are dumb enough to take Furyk this week and he has the lead come Saturday night, just bet 65 times your base bet against him and you will win.


Martin Kaymer (50/1) – He may have good memories from his win here in 2010 but I have good memories from Austin’s 6th street when I was in college. Problem is, neither of us are the same person we once were. Since his win at the US Open last year he has gone 70th, MC, MC, MC and 12th in his last 5 majors and missed four cuts in his last seven starts this year.


Adam Scott (15/1) – He can have Steve Williams on the bag, he can hit every fairway and every green and he still won’t win. As we learned at St. Andrews, the guy simply can’t putt well enough to win a major right now.


Justin Rose (22/1) – See above. With the exception of lightning in a bottle on Saturday at the WGC, this guy might be the only player on tour right now that could lose in a putting contest to Adam Scott. As good as he has hit it the last few months his putter has done him no favors. On this course, or any major for that matter, if you can’t putt, you can’t win.


Shane Lowry (100/1) – At 100/1 he will get a lot of action this week, and probably come down quite a bit as a result, but just remember he was posted at 100/1 even after winning the WGC for a reason.


Henrik Stenson (30/1) – A smooth little 80-75 here in 2010 and coming off a forgettable performance at the British Open I wouldn’t touch this guy with your money this week.


Rickie Fowler (22/1) – The guy makes too many big numbers and I think that will be his downfall this week on a course with some very difficult holes.


Louis Oosthuizen (40/1) – Top 20 at Augusta, T-2 at the US Open and lost in a playoff at the British. In other words the guy doesn’t suck this year when it comes to playing in majors. However just like Fowler last year I think he ends the year with four quality finishes in the majors but no wins.


Phil Mickelson (30/1) – If the 2010 version of Phil couldn’t win here there is zero chance the 2015 version of Phil can win here.


Luke Donald (100/1) – Pretty appropriate considering he barely broke 80 when he played here in 2010. Unless they let Luke play from the red tees he might as well be 100 million to 1 this week. And even then I’m not sure I would take him for $1.


Lee Westwood (100/1) - When Lee Westwood first saw the course he said, “I'd been told there are 10 difficult holes and eight impossible ones. I'm still trying to work out which the 10 difficult holes are." So that pretty much eliminates him. On a related note Sergio Garcia is 45/1. Meaning you can lose the same amount of money for less than half the imaginary payout.


Matt Kuchar (50/1) – The first and second round leader here in 2010 and was barely able to hang on to a top 10 over the weekend. The guy cashes a lot of checks, just not the really big one they hand out at majors.


Tiger Woods (30/1) - If you want to bet on Tiger this week, please call me, I’ll be more than happy to book your bet. No. 262 in world rankings and 30/1? If he even makes the cut this week you should get 30/1.


Boo Weekley (275/1) - It’s the PGA Championship…this never gets old.


John Daly (500/1) – If Steve Elkington could turn back the clock here in 2010 and still have a shot to win on the 72nd hole…why not JD in 2015????


So who wins “Glory’s Last Shot?” Personally, I would say this is a 4-horse race with one man emerging by a nose.


Bubba Watson (22/1) – It pains me beyond belief to have to put him in this category but the fact is the guy is playing really well as of late, lost in a playoff here in 2010 and should contend again here in 2015. I absolutely refuse to bet on him because I would feel like my money was cursed if I won but it wouldn’t shock me if he did. On a related note, watching the replay last week of the 2010 PGA here reminded me that my two favorite players in golf are whoever I have money on and whoever is in contention (a playoff) against Bubba. The real question this year: will Bubba participate in the long drive contest on Wednesday or once again prove to be the biggest D-bag on the PGA Tour? My money is on the latter.


Jason Day (15/1) – Finished T-10 here in 2010 despite a final round 74 and has contended in the last two majors despite battling vertigo. It still makes me nervous betting on a guy that could collapse at any minute but his win in Canada recently was a good sign and is coming off a solid week at the WGC. Day is going to win a major sooner than later and this week very well could be it. If nothing else he will be there come the back nine on Sunday and I look for Day to finish no worse than a top 10 again this week and most likely in the top 5 as well.


Jordan Spieth (11/2, or 5.5/1 for the mathematically impaired) – His grand slam dreams died at St. Andrews on the 72nd hole (or 71st, however you want to look at it) but the guy was one shot out of a playoff. If he wins this week and misses the grand slam by a single shot (no chance he loses that playoff) what an incredible story that would make on it’s own. Winning all three majors on US soil would still be pretty amazing, even Tiger in his heyday never did that. While I don’t think he will win this week, I certainly wouldn’t bet against him. However, it definitely wouldn’t shock me if he won. The guy could cure cancer tomorrow and it wouldn’t surprise me. He will at worst cash in again on a top-5 and top-10 bet this week.


It was also announced that Spieth will play with Justin Thomas against Mickelson and Fowler in a Tuesday practice round. Spieth said he was thinking of setting his US Open trophy on every green to get in Mickelson's head. Whether he does or not is irrelevant now, just the fact that he said it publicly is outstanding. And if there is any way I can get down on Spieth/Thomas for like ten grand, please let me know where I can take that action?


Your winner:


Dustin Johnson (13/1) – I said it in February and despite his US Open and British meltdowns, I am sticking with it. What else can this guy possibly do to lose a major at this point? Seriously, he has to be out of options by now. The guy has succeeded in losing a major in every way possible. I think the DJ we saw for 71.5 holes at the US Open and 36 holes at the British Open shows up for 72 holes this week. People forget because of the stupid bunker ruling that DJ made two really good birdies on the 70th and 71st hole here in 2010 to take a one shot lead going into the final hole. I think this is the ultimate redemption story this week for DJ, avenging his loss here in 2010, his 3-putt at the US Open in June, his complete weekend meltdown at St. Andrews in July and the countless other blown majors he has. In the words of the great Lloyd Christmas, “Just when I think you couldn't possibly be any dumber, you go and do something like this... and totally redeem yourself!”

 

[CNOTES]

Tigers visit Royals


August 10, 2015




DETROIT TIGERS (54-57) at KANSAS CITY ROYALS (66-44)


First pitch: Monday, 8:10 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Kansas City -195, Detroit +182, Total: 7


The top team in the American League, the Kansas City Royals, takes on their division rivals, the Detroit Tigers, in the first of three games at Kauffman Stadium on Monday.


It looked like the Tigers were poised for yet another playoff run in 2015 with their stacked lineup and wealth of pitching, but things have gone amiss with the team now sitting 12.5 games out of the divisional lead while things don’t look much better in the wildcard race (5.5 games). They’ve managed to split their last eight games (4-4), including taking 2-of-3 against this Kansas City group at home during that stretch, but are coming off a series loss against the Red Sox most recently. Detroit was outscored 20-11 over three games at home facing Boston and lost 7-2 on Sunday as the offense went 1-for-9 with RISP. The hot hitting continued for 2B Ian Kinsler (.304) though, who is now 21-for-41 (.512) with four doubles, a triple, a home run, six RBIs and 12 runs scored in the last 10 games.


The Royals are cruising in the Central division with an 11.5-game lead over their closest competition, but come into this contest with losses in six of their last 11 games. Things look to be coming back together, though, and when the White Sox came into town over the weekend, Kansas City earned a sweep in three games with each margin of victory being just one. They finished off the set with a 5-4 win on Sunday afternoon as they garnered 10 hits and saw the bullpen put up a solid effort (5.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 6 K). The offseason acquisition of DH Kendrys Morales (.290) continues to pay off as he hit a two-run homer in Sunday’s victory and is 14-for-38 (.368) with a HR and 12 RBIs in the last 10 games.


Making his second start with his new club will be former Blue Jay LHP Matt Boyd (1-2, 7.90 ERA) as he goes against another pitcher with new surroundings in RHP Johnny Cueto (7-7, 2.69 ERA) for the host Royals. The Tigers have actually played slightly better on the road (26-27) than at home this year as that record will be tested against this Royals group which is 37-18 in front of their fans. There have been plenty of tough battles between these two over the last three years and Detroit has gained a 27-21 edge in the series since the start of 2013, taking 13-of-23 games in Kansas City during that time. Things have not changed too much in 2015 as the divisional rivals have split 10 games overall (5-5) and four games at Kauffman Stadium (2-2).


Trends show that the Royals are a putrid 0-8 as a home favorite of -175 to -200 in the past two seasons as they have also gone 21-6 (.778) at home when the total is 7.5 or less this year. The big blow for the Tigers is continuing to have 1B Miguel Cabrera (Calf) sidelined as OF Alex Gordon (Groin) remains on the DL for Kansas City.


Boyd played well enough with the Blue Jays to get the call to the big league club and eventually was a piece that was moved to Detroit in order for David Price to head to Toronto. He had 18 starts between double-A and triple-A in which he garnered a 1.10 ERA over 12 starts at New Hampshire before doing well (2.77 ERA) at Buffalo. His strikeout ability is there with more than 8.0 K/9 at each minor league stop since single-A advanced, but has not seen that come to fruition at the major league level with nine strikeouts in his first 13.2 frames (5.9 K/9).


In that time he has also allowed five homers (3.29 HR/9) and suffered from hitters owning a .354 BABIP. Boyd earned his first MLB victory in his debut for Detroit, going seven innings and allowing one run on seven hits with two strikeouts (0 walks). That outing was actually against this Kansas City team, and it was 1B Eric Hosmer (2-for-3) and DH Kendrys Morales (2-for-3) who were able to get to the 24-year-old.


On the other hand, OF Lorenzo Cain, SS Alcides Escobar, C Salvador Perez and 2B Omar Infante were a combined 0-for-12 in the matchup. The relievers for the Tigers have once again struggled, going 15-15 with a 4.31 ERA (1.45 WHIP) and have saved 27-of-41 (66%) games. With the departure of Joakim Soria, Alex Wilson (1.72 ERA, 2 saves) has taken over the ninth inning duties and earned a save in each of his first two attempts as he comes into this one without allowing a run since July seventh (11.2 IP), giving up a mere six hits with seven strikeouts (3 walks).


Cueto was one of the bigger trade deadline acquisitions this year as he left the Reds, who he played for since 2006, for a chance at a championship ring. His stats have been some of the most consistent in the league over the past four seasons as he’s posted an ERA of 2.85 or better each year while having a BABIP against of .240 or lower in each of the past three. He was never a huge strikeout pitcher, but has mowed down 8.1 batters per nine innings in 2015 and continues to show solid control (2.1 BB/9). His homers allowed (0.69 HR/9) should decrease with the move from a hitter’s park to a pitcher’s park as well.


The Royals have lost in each of his first two outings with them, but he has not pitched poorly with two quality starts and has not allowed a HR since June 26th (seven starts). He’s taken on Detroit just twice in his career, going 0-1 (1-1 team record) with a 3.65 ERA (0.97 WHIP) and was on the losing end against them, and Boyd, just five days ago when he threw seven innings of two-run baseball on five hits with two strikeouts (2 walks). Hot hitting 2B Ian Kinsler (2-for-6, 1 double, 1 triple) hasn’t let Cueto slow him down, but the righty has been able to get DH Victor Martinez to go 0-for-9 in the matchup.


Once again, the Royals’ bullpen is a big strength and they’ve gone 22-7 with a 2.32 ERA (1.08 WHIP) and are 38-for-53 (72%) in save opportunities. Greg Holland (3.12 ERA, 25 saves) has three blown saves on the year as he has struck out the fewest (10.1 K/9) and walked the most (4.9 BB/9) batters in his career.

 

[CNOTES]

Monday's Tip Sheet


August 10, 2015




Colorado Rockies at New York Mets | 7:10 p.m. ET

Despite losing two in a row, and thus, ultimately their series at Tropicana Field over the weekend, the Mets have still been cruising for the most part since acquiring Yoenis Cespedes, and will have an advantageous opportunity of getting back on track by hosting the last-place Colorado Rockies at Citi Field. In the opener, New York hands the ball to Jon Niese (6-9, 3.51 ERA), who has somewhat surprisingly fit in well amongst the Mets’ handful of gifted young starters as one of the two veterans on the staff. He’s especially been holding his own as of late, with a whopping 10 quality starts in his last 11 tries, although the Mets are only 5-6 over that span. They’ll be laying a decent amount of chalk in this one, as the linesmakers sense them becoming a regular team to lean on amongst bettors. They’re -190 favorites as a result.

The Rockies will seek to steal game one behind their young starter of the future Jon Gray (0-0, 4.50 ERA), who will be making the second start of his big league career in this one. His long-awaited Major League debut came six days ago at home against the Mariners, and while Colorado ultimately lost that contest, Gray flashed some of his notable potential, as he gave up three runs (two earned) on five hits in four innings, striking out four and walking two. With his high ceiling and standing as Colorado’s No. 1 pitching prospect, he could be a sneaky underdog play, as the Rox believe he can pan out just as successfully as the Mets’ top young arms. The over/under is 7.5.

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals | 8:10 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Making his third start with his new club, Johnny Cueto (7-7, 2.69 ERA) will try to make it three-for-three in terms of registering quality starts as a member of the Royals. He’s actually facing Kansas City’s most heated division rival, the Tigers, for the second time in six days, as these two teams hooked up only last week. In that last encounter, Cueto was his usual excellent self, holding Detroit to two runs on five hits over seven sharp innings, though he only struck out two. While Cueto has pitched well since being traded, the Royals surprisingly are 0-2 when he starts, and this will also be his home debut at Kauffman Stadium.

The pitcher who opposed -- and beat -- Cueto in that matchup on August 5, Matt Boyd (1-2, 7.90 ERA), is also slated to take the hill in this rematch. Like Cueto, Boyd experienced a change in scenery at the trade deadline, as he was one of the pitchers the Tigers acquired from the Blue Jays in the blockbuster David Price deal. Despite unpleasant numbers on the season, mostly due to one really poor relief appearance, Boyd was outstanding in his Detroit debut opposite these Royals, as he surrendered just one run on seven hits in seven impressive innings of work. Can he upset Cueto once again as an encore? The linesmakers aren’t giving him much of a shot on the road, as he’s currently a whopping +195 road ’dog. The over/under, meanwhile, is 7.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Chicago White Sox | 8:10 p.m. ET

Not that long ago, White Sox ace Chris Sale (9-7, 3.52 ERA) was on top of the baseball world with a dominant extensive run that very few pitchers have ever experienced. In fact, it was that run that got him into the record books, as he became the first pitcher since Pedro Martinez over a decade ago to record eight straight double-digit strikeout performances. Since then, however, Sale has hit a bit of a rough patch, as he only has one game with ten-or-more strikeouts since then in six starts, and in each of his last two outings, the perennial Cy Young candidate has been pounded for seven runs in less than six innings of work. Even so, the dominant southpaw owns an absolutely outstanding 186/28 K/BB ratio in 143 total innings this year, and will try to get back in a rhythm in tonight’s crucial assignment with one of the Wild Card leaders that his club is currently chasing.

Opposing him will be Matt Shoemaker (5-7, 4.01 ERA), who has quietly been one of baseball’s hottest pitchers since the end of June. In six starts since that point, Shoemaker has impressively given up two runs or less, while pitching into the sixth inning or deeper in all six as well. In the process, his ERA has gone down a full run-and-change, as last year’s AL Rookie of the Year runner-up has finally settled in. Additionally, the under has cashed every time in all of Shoemaker’s previous six starts. The linesmakers have the over/under for this one set at 7, while Sale is a -140 favorite.

Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:10 p.m. ET

Not long ago, the Nationals and Dodgers were considered to have legitimate aspirations of representing the National League in the World Series this year, but if they’re not careful enough, one or both of these franchises could end up on the outside looking in as far as this year’s postseason goes. As a result, we have a high-profile series from Chavez Ravine beginning this evening, as two NL contenders try to get out of their current rut.

Los Angles is coming off a weekend where they were swept by the Pirates, but fortunately for them, their biggest competition in the NL West, the Giants, also endured a sweep as well, sustaining the Dodgers’ three-game lead for first. They’ll go with Brett Anderson (6-6, 3.06 ERA) tonight to kick off this important series, as the left-hander has provided crucial depth behind Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke in his first season as a Dodger. With seven quality starts in his past nine tries, Anderson is surging, especially since the All-Star break, as he owns a 2.30 ERA in three starts. The Nats counter with fellow veteran left-hander Gio Gonzalez (8-4, 3.75 ERA), who has been just as stingy as of late in yielding two earned runs or less in each of his past seven starts. He’s a +120 road ’dog in this one, however, while the over/under sits at 7.

 

[CNOTES]

MLB


Monday, August 10


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB betting cheat sheet: Blue Jays blasting off
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Blue Jays 3B Josh Donaldson has slugged six home runs and 10 RBI in nine August games heading into Tuesday's series opener against the A's.




Here's a comprehensive look at betting notes for the early week major-league schedule:


The Invincibles


The Toronto Blue Jays have won eight straight, and 11 of their last 12. The only loss during that span was also the only game that Tulowitzki didn't play since coming over from Colorado. David Price has allowed one run on six hits, striking out 18 in 15 innings, winning his first two starts as a Blue Jay. The Jays will host the last place A's in a three game series at Rogers Center starting Tuesday, before welcoming the Yankees to town on Friday.


Houston, We Have A Problem


The Astros can't seem to win on the road. They've dropped six of seven on their current road trip, and now own a record of 23-34 away from home this season. They will be in San Francisco for the final two games of this West Coast swing on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Giants have won eight of their last nine at AT&T Park.


Home Sick


The Chicago White Sox have scored a major league low 175 runs at home at U.S. Cellular Field. They lost 4-of-6 on their most recent home stand, and they've dropped eight of their last 10 overall. The Sox will host the Angels in a home series starting Monday, and they've lost seven of the last eight versus Los Angeles.


Hitting Notes


* Joey Votto is tearing up the National League since the All Star break, batting a major league best .414 with four home runs and nine RBIs. He also leads the majors in walks, and he's batting .303 for the season. He's facing Ian Kennedy in Game 1 in San Diego, and he's 5-for-12 with a pair of doubles lifetime versus the veteran.


* Josh Donaldson hit his 31st home run of the season in the Bronx on Sunday, and he's now just two off the major league lead behind Nelson Cruz and Mike Trout. He's facing his former team this week, and he's hit .391 over only a combined 23 at bats versus the A's pitching staff. He's hit 20 of his 31 home runs at Rogers Center.


Pitching Notes


* Eduardo Rodriguez has been a Jekyll & Hyde pitcher so far for the Red Sox, with dramatic splits in day versus night games. The 22 year old southpaw is 5-1 with a 1.75 ERA at night, but 1-3 with a 9.82 ERA during the day. His next start comes against Miami in a matinee at Marlins Park, and it might also be worth noting that the Fish are batting an NL best .278 versus left-handed pitching.


* Gerrit Cole will go for his major league leading 15th win on Wednesday, and the 24 year old boasts a record of 13-1 versus National League teams not named the Cincinnati Reds. For whatever reason, Cole hasn't been able to figure out Cincinnati, going 0-3 with a 5.95 ERA against the Reds this season. His next start comes in St. Louis, and he beat the Cardinals in the only previous meeting this season.


Totals Streak


The Arizona Diamondbacks have played six straight unders at home, and they have failed to reach the total in eight straight as a home favorite. They host Philly in Game 1 of a new series starting Monday, and the Phillies have seen the total come up short in six of their last seven visits to Arizona.


Injury Notes


* Jose Fernandez will land on the DL with a sore bicep, and that's a big blow to Miami. The 23 year old triumphantly returned from Tommy John surgery to go 4-0 with a 2.30 ERA in seven starts.


* Edwin Encarnacion missed the series finale in New York with a sore finger on his left hand. He's officially listed as day to day, and will likely see action in the home series versus Oakland.


Weather Notes


* Wind is expected to be blowing out to leftfield at around 13 miles per hour when the New York Mets host the Colorado Rockies at Citi Field Monday.


* At Wrigley Field on Tuesday, wind will be blowing in from leftfield at 11 miles per hour when the Chicago Cubs host the Milwaukee Brewers Tuesday.

 

[CNOTES]

MLB


Monday, August 10




Inbound wind in Kansas City Monday


According to weather forecasts, wind will blow in from leftfield at around 11 miles per hour when the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers take the field at Kauffman Stadium Stadium Monday evening.


There is a chance of thunderstorms earlier in the day, but that should subside by the time the players take the field. Temperatures will be in the high-70s under partly cloudy skies.


The Royals opened around -190 but that has been adjusted to around -208. Johnny Cueto is slated to start for the Royals while Matt Boyd is expected to start for the Tigers.




Orioles rebounding well after losses lately


The Baltimore Orioles have gone 5-0 in their last five ball games following a loss. The O's pay a visit to the Seattle Mariners Monday evening and are coming off a 5-4 loss to the Los Angeles Angels Sunday.


Baltimore and Seattle begin a three-game set at Safeco Field Monday with Wei-Yin Chen slated to start for the visiting Orioles and Vidal Nuno expected to pitch for the Mariners.


The O's are presently -120 and books have a total of 7.5 on the board.

 

[CNOTES]

Diamond Trends - Monday


August 10, 2015



SU TREND OF THE DAY:


-- The Reds are 0-13 ml since May 18, 2014 after a road loss in which they allowed 12+ hits.


PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:


-- When Johnny Cueto starts teams are 12-0 since June 9, 2011 when they lost his last start by 1-2 runs after he allowed two or fewer runs, if that start was not his first of the season.


OU TREND OF THE DAY:


-- The Nationals are 17-0-1 ou since Apr 14, 2015 on the road after allowing 6+ runs.


CHOICE TREND:


-- The Reds are 0-10 since Jul 21, 2014 as a dog when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is the first game of a series.


ACTIVE TRENDS:


-- The Phillies are 7-0 since Jul 17, 2015 as a dog in the first game of the series.

 

[CNOTES]

Team Pitcher Open Line Movements Current Runline Scores


7:10 PM EDT


901 COLORADO ROCKIES (R) Gray, J 7o20 7.5o15 / 7.5 / 7.5u20 7.5u15 +1.5(-160)
902 NEW YORK METS (L) Niese, J -160 -158 / -155 / -156 -157 -1.5(+140)

TV: ROOT-Rocky Mountain, SNY, DTV: 639, 683 | PARTLY CLOUDY, WIND OUT TO LEFT 10-15. GAME TEMP 76, RH 66%


9:40 PM EDT


903 PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (R) Harang, A 8.5o20 8.5o20 / 8.5o15 / 8.5o16 8.5o15 +1.5(-150)
904 ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (R) De La Rosa, R -165 -146 / -150 / -157 -158 -1.5(+130)


TV: FS-Arizona, DTV: 686 | MOSTLY FAIR, WIND OUT TO RIGHT CENTER 3-8. GAME TEMP 97,RH 27% HEAT INDEX 97 (CHASE FIELD ROOF MAY CLOSE IN HOT WEATHER)


10:10 PM EDT


905 WASHINGTON NATIONALS (L) Gonzalez, G 7o15 7 / 7o20 / 7o21 7o20 +1.5(-205)
906 LOS ANGELES DODGERS (L) Anderson, B -130 -123 / -124 / -126 -127 -1.5(+175)


TV: MASN, DTV: 640 | CLEAR, WIND OUT TO LEFT 5-10. GAME TEMP 73, RH 55%


10:10 PM EDT


907 CINCINNATI REDS (L) Holmberg, D 7o25 7o25 / 7.5u15 / 7.5 7.5o15 +1.5(-190)
908 SAN DIEGO PADRES (R) Kennedy, I -140 -145 / -143 / -141 -140 -1.5(+160)

TV: FS-Ohio, FS-San Diego, DTV: 660, 694 | PARTLY CLOUDY, WIND LEFT TO RIGHT 5-10. GAME TEMP 71, RH 61%


8:10 PM EDT


909 DETROIT TIGERS (L) Boyd, M 7o25 7o20 / 7o25 / 7o30 7o25 +1.5(-120)
910 KANSAS CITY ROYALS (R) Cueto, J -190 -215 / -218 / -215 -218 -1.5(+100)

DET-1B-Miguel Cabrera-OUT | TV: ESPN, FS-Detroit, FS-Kansas City, DTV: 206, 663, 672 | MOSTLY FAIR, WIND IN FROM LEFT 5-10. GAME TEMP 84, RH 58%


8:10 PM EDT


911 LOS ANGELES ANGELS (R) Shoemaker, M 7u20 7 / 7o15 / 7o34 7.5u15 +1.5(-195)
912 CHICAGO WHITE SOX (L) Sale, C -145 -128 / -129 / -144 -141 -1.5(+165)


TV: CSN-Chicago, FS-West, DTV: 665, 692 | PARTLY CLOUDY, WIND LEFT TO RIGHT 10-15. GAME TEMP 72, RH 76%


10:10 PM EDT


913 BALTIMORE ORIOLES (L) Chen, W -115 -117 / -118 / -116 -118 -1.5(+145)
914 SEATTLE MARINERS (L) Nuno, V 7.5 7.5u24 / 7.5u25 / 7o20 7o25 +1.5(-165)


TV: MASN2, ROOT-Northwest, DTV: 641, 687 | PARTLY CLOUDY, WIND IN FROM LEFT 3-8. GAME TEMP 79, RH 37%

 

[CNOTES]

MLB Consensus Picks


SIDES (ATS)


Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds


7:10 PM Colorado +144 312 26.33% NY Mets -156 873 73.67% View View


8:10 PM Detroit +190 310 26.43% Kansas City -208 863 73.57% View View


10:10 PM Washington +115 433 38.08% LA Dodgers -125 704 61.92% View View


9:40 PM Philadelphia +143 421 38.13% Arizona -155 683 61.87% View View


10:10 PM Cincinnati +126 488 45.61% San Diego -136 582 54.39% View View


8:10 PM LA Angels +120 630 54.17% Chi. White Sox -130 533 45.83% View View


10:10 PM Baltimore -118 751 66.17% Seattle +109 384 33.83% View View




TOTALS (OVER/UNDER)


Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds


10:10 PM Cincinnati 7.5 329 47.13% San Diego 7.5 369 52.87% View View


10:10 PM Washington 7 387 54.20% LA Dodgers 7 327 45.80% View View


8:10 PM LA Angels 7 388 55.51% Chi. White Sox 7 311 44.49% View View


9:40 PM Philadelphia 8.5 406 58.42% Arizona 8.5 289 41.58% View View


10:10 PM Baltimore 7.5 448 61.45% Seattle 7.5 281 38.55% View View


7:10 PM Colorado 7.5 458 62.23% NY Mets 7.5 278 37.77% View View


8:10 PM Detroit 7 487 66.99% Kansas City 7 240 33.01% View View

 

[CNOTES]

RECAPPING YESTERDAY'S ACTION:


MLB: 5 - 9 - 0


WNBA: 6- 4 - 0


CFL: 2 - 0


NFL: 1 - 1



WNBA JUNE/ JULY RECORD/ AUGUST :


*****...............................15 - 17 - 2
DOUBLE PLAY....................40 - 34
TRIPLE PLAY......................18 - 12
SLAM DUNK.......................20 - 16


MLB RECORD FOR JUNE/JULY/AUGUST:


*****.............................90 - 107 - 1 .....................,........- 13.49
double play......................144 - 158 - 2 ............................- 31.38
triple play........................67 - 59 - 2 ................................ - 0.33
grand slam......................86 - 84 - 3.....................,...........- 14.30
double grand slam.............5 - 7........................................-14.72
.
CFL JUNE/JULY/ AUGUST RECORD:


SINGLE PLAY.................................1 - 1
DOUBLE PLAY................................7 - 13
TRIPLE PLAY..................................6 - 2
BLOW OUT.....................................3 - 2


NFL PRESEASON RECORD:


SINGLE PLAY..................................... 0 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY.................................... 1 - 1
TRIPLE PLAY ..................................... 0 - 0
BLOW OUT......................................... 0 - 0




MONDAY, AUGUST 10


Game Score Status Pick Amount


Colorado - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets -156 500 DOUBLE PLAY
NY Mets - Under 7.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY


LA Angels - 8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox -138 500 *****
Chi. White Sox - Under 7 500


Detroit - 8:10 PM ET Kansas City -208 500
Kansas City - Under 7 500


Philadelphia - 9:40 PM ET Philadelphia +143 500 GRAND SLAM
Arizona - Over 8.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY


Baltimore - 10:10 PM ET Baltimore -118 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Seattle - Over 7.5 500


Cincinnati - 10:10 PM ET San Diego -136 500 *****
San Diego - Under 7.5 500 *****


Washington - 10:10 PM ET Washington +115 500 DOUBLE PLAY
LA Dodgers - Under 7 500 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack


-- Arizona 4, Reds 3 (10)-- When you have bases loaded in tie game and batter gets a winning hit, everyone still has to touch the next base, to avoid a force play. Arizona is lucky there was only one out; umps let them off hook for a big mistake.


-- Toronto has won eight games in a row; they're a formidable offensive team.


-- Cubs swept the Giants, have a 3.5-game lead for last Wild Card spot. Looking like three NL Central teams will make playoffs.


-- Illinois lands transfer PG Khalid Lewis from LaSalle, to replace the injured Tracy Abrams, a huge get for the Illini. Lewis is eligible right away.


-- Braves scored total of 13 runs in losing Shelby Miller's last ten starts.


-- If the baseball playoffs started today:
NL: Mets-Cardinals-Dodgers. Wild Card: Cubs @ Pirates
AL: Bronx-Royals-Astros. Wild Card: Angels @ Blue Jays




**********


Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: NFL knowledge to start the week with.....


13) Since 2002, 65 teams have finished the season with a +10 or better turnover ratio; of those 65 teams, only six had a better record the next season than they did the year they had the good turnover ratio.


12) On average, teams win 2.55 games a year less the year after having such a good turnover ratio.


11) Only two teams since '02 have had a turnover ratio of 10+ or better and still had a losing season; the '03 49ers (+12) and '13 Buccaneers (+10)-- both teams finished 2-14 the following season. You have to be terrible to be +10 in turnovers and under .500.


10) 45 of the 65 teams had a turnover ratio that was 10+ turnovers worse the next season; you can make a case hat a great tunover ratio could make a team look a lot better than it actually was.


9) Denver Broncos have only two home games before November 1 this season.


8) There were 73 defensive TDs in the NFL LY, 19 kick/punt return TDs.


7) Arizona/Washington both got 44 first downs via penalty LY, most in NFL; Raiders got 19, Rams 20, least in the league.


Patriots allowed 45 first downs via penalty, most in NFL; Dolphins allowed 16, least in the league.


6) Last Buffalo Bills head coach to leave town with a winning record? Wade Phillips, who went 29-21 from 1998-2000.


5) Cincinnati Bengals went 116-192 from 1984-2002; since Marvin Lewis has been the Bengals' coach, they're 100-96-2, but fans are restless because Cincy hasn't won any playoff games the last few years. Be careful what you wish for.......if Lewis were to leave, things could easily get much worse.


4) Buffalo hosts the Bengals October 18 and the Texans December 6; in between, they have only one home game, plus two primetime road games and a London trip. NFL showing lot of faith in Rex Ryan, giving them two primetime games in November.


3) Last Detroit Lions' head coach (not an interim coach) who had a winning record? Joe Schmidt, way back in 1967-72-- he went 43-35-7-- lot of ties back then.


2) Houston Texans' assistant coach Pat O'Hara was a backup QB in college at USC, then spent the next 20 years in the Arena League, as both a player and a coach. This will be his first year in the NFL; would be an interesting feature by NFL Films to get his impressions during the season, as to how similar/different the experience is.


1) Chargers-Raiders at 5:30 on Christmas Eve; good thing I'm already divorced; games scheduled like that helped facilitate the process.

 

[CNOTES]

GIGGLE OF THE DAY....


She was outside pulling weeds on a hot summer day when her husband
walked up and asked her what they were having for dinner.





Irritated by the thought of him sitting in the air conditioned house while she
laboured away on the weeds, she snapped, "I can't believe you're asking me
about supper right now! Pretend I'm out of town, go inside and make dinner yourself!"





So he went back in the house and fixed himself a big steak, potatoes, garlic bread,
and a tall beer.





His wife walked in just about the time he was finishing up and asked, "Where's my dinner?"





"I thought you were out of town."