Early 2015-16 win total projections
July 13, 2015
Now that the moratorium on NBA free agent signings has passed and most teams have cobbled together the bulk of their roster for the upcoming ’15-’16 season, we can start projecting win totals. The following is a look at where most projections should be, barring significant injuries, come October. For comparison’s sake, we’ve included the WestgateLV Superbook’s totals entering last season in addition to where teams actually ended up.
Atlanta Hawks (40.5 LY), finished 61-21: After being last year’s top overachiever, the Hawks have lost their biggest surprise, wing DeMarre Carroll. They’ll be bigger with Tiago Splitter and Edy Tavares alongside Paul Millsap and Al Horford, but need point guards Jeff Teague and Dennis Schroder to take another step forward in their consistency. Kyle Korver and Thabo Sefolosha returning to health is also essential. Projected wins: 46.5
Boston Celtics (26.5 LY), finished 40-42: No one expected them to make the playoffs, especially after moving Rajon Rondo, but Brad Stevens pushed the right buttons and young guys flourished. There will be more expectations going forward, but Amir Johnson, David Lee and top pick Terry Rozier don’t exactly move the needle. Projected wins: 35.5
Brooklyn Nets (41.5 LY), finished 38-44: Buying out Deron Williams truly ends up breathing fresh air into their situation, but this is still a rebuilding team. Joe Johnson is likely to be next to go, which will also help the Nets get younger and sleeker. Projected wins: 32.5
Charlotte Hornets (45.5 LY), finished 33-49: The acquisition of Nic Batum and drafting of the very capable Frank Kaminsky has this franchise encouraged that they’ve added some nice pieces to surround Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker. The x-factor remains former No. 2 pick Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who has to prove he can stay healthy while rounding out his offense to keep from being a liability on that end of the floor. Projected wins: 35.5
Chicago Bulls (55.5 LY), finished 50-32: New head coach Fred Hoiberg’s arrival is the major variable here, although Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah staying healthy will always be the key no matter who is coaching. Jimmy Butler returned to continue his ascent as one of the league’s top wings, while Pau Gasol’s resurgence should allow the offense some versatility in halfcourt sets. Projected wins: 50.5
Cleveland Cavaliers (58.5 LY), finished 53-29: The great LeBron James will have the deepest team in the Eastern Conference behind him, not to mention some continuity in place after last season’s bumpy ride. With Kevin Love likely to be an improved contributor and oddsmakers already instilling the Cavs as this season’s championship choice, expectations should increase. Projected wins: 59.5
Dallas Mavericks (49.5 LY), finished 50-32: There's no way to mask it. DeAndre Jordan’s change of heart tempered expectations significantly, even though trading for Zaza Pachulia and reaching a deal with Williams was a decent save to provide some new blood. Wes Matthews will provide a major upgrade on the wing once he’s finally healthy in 2016. Projected wins: 41.5
Denver Nuggets (40.5 LY), finished 30-52: The future of Kenneth Faried and Ty Lawson makes this forecast murky, since both are likely to be involved in trade talks from here until they’re finally moved. Emmanuel Mudiay is likely to get the bulk of the minutes as a rookie point guard, which guarantees growing pains. Projected wins: 23.5
Detroit Pistons (36.5 LY), finished 32-50: The exit of Greg Monroe and Ersan Ilyasova’s arrival means Stan Van Gundy will be able to play his style more, while the growth of Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson will dictate just how successful they’ll be. Projected wins: 34.5
Golden State Warriors (50.5 LY), finished 67-15: The defending champs have the NBA’s biggest homecourt advantage bolstering an up-tempo attack that is going to be tough for most to keep up with. Only the fact they’ll have a target on their back and play in the loaded West keeps expectations from getting significantly out of hand. Projected wins: 60.5
Houston Rockets (49.5 LY), finished 56-26: The Rockets certainly took a step forward as Dwight Howard looked fully healthy for the first time in years and James Harden became a deserving MVP candidate. With relatively the same core back, this team will be a factor. Projected wins: 51.5
Indiana Pacers (32.5 LY), finished 38-44: Swingman Paul George’s return to health instantly raises expectations, but it remains to be seen how they transition from a defensive-minded team anchored by 7-foot-3 Roy Hibbert to one that signed Monta Ellis and Jordan Hill while bringing back Rodney Stuckey in an intent to run. Projected wins: 35.5
Los Angeles Clippers (55.5 LY), finished 56-26: Coaxing Jordan back to the fold saved this cap-strapped squad, keeping it among the league’s elite. With Paul Pierce and Lance Stephenson on board to upgrade the level of play on the wing, look for the Clips to hold tight at the number they were set at last season. Projected wins: 55.5
Los Angeles Lakers (31.5 LY), finished 21-61: Despite striking out on the big free-agent fish, there’s optimism that what is expected to be Kobe Bryant’s final season won’t be the disaster last season turned into. D’Angelo Russell arrives, Julius Randle returns and veterans Hibbert, Brandon Bass and Lou Williams come aboard. Projected wins: 31.5
Memphis Grizzlies (48.5 LY), finished 55-27: Center Marc Gasol returned, while Brandan Wright and Matt Barnes arrive. Grit and grind lives to ride another day and may be better than ever given the increased depth. Projected wins: 51.5
Miami Heat (43.5 LY), finished 37-45: Since Chris Bosh is expected to return to 100 percent after a health scare, the Heat will have Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic, Luol Deng and Hassan Whiteside joining him in a loaded starting lineup. Pat Riley has put together a deep bench, so don’t be surprised to see this team rejoin the league’s elite. Projected wins: 47.5
Milwaukee Bucks (24.5 LY), finished 41-41: Monroe signing with the Bucks over the larger markets provided a major lift to a team that also kept Khris Middleton around. With Jabari Parker returning, this is going to be a team that will be expected to make a major jump. Projected wins: 44.5
Minnesota Timberwolves (25.5 LY), finished 16-66: Reigning Rookie of the Year Andrew Wiggins gets more help with top pick Karl-Anthony Towns coming on board, but this will still be a lottery team when all is said and done. Expect the determining factor to be the health of oft-injured Ricky Rubio and Nikola Pekovic, but they won’t be expected to win much more than they were entering last season. Projected wins: 25.5
New Orleans Pelicans (41.5 LY), finished 45-37: The spectacular Anthony Davis is likely to emerge as an MVP candidate, so with Alvin Gentry taking over and promising a faster pace and improved execution, the Pelicans should be better. Even in the loaded West, they’ll be expected to make the playoffs. Projected wins: 45.5
New York Knicks (40.5 LY), finished 17-65: Star forward Carmelo Anthony didn’t get big-name help, but the organization is standing behind the acquisitions of Robin Lopez, Arron Afflalo and Derrick Williams as tweaks that will team with draft picks Kristaps Porzingis and Jerian Grant to significantly upgrade the core. They still don’t look like a playoff team. Projected wins: 31.5
Oklahoma City Thunder (57.5 LY), finished 45-37: With Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook set to join forces against and Billy Donovan likely to get great results out of the gate, the Thunder will have extremely high expectations bestowed upon them. Matching Enes Kanter’s 4-year/$70 million offer sheet from Portland tells you they’re set to pull out all the stops to ensure Durant stays put at season’s end. Projected wins: 59.5
Orlando Magic (28.5 LY), finished 25-57: Forward Aaron Gordon’s improvement was the talk of Summer League in Orlando, while No. 5 pick Mario Hezonja also impressed. The young Magic should take another step forward under Scott Skiles, though they likely won’t be expected to make a breakthrough and reach the postseason. Projected wins: 33.5
Philadelphia 76ers (15.5 LY), finished 18-64: Center Joel Embiid will miss his second straight season with a foot injury, so Jahlil Okafor and Nerlens Noel will have to hold the fort down for the league’s worst collection of talent. Once again, the 76ers will be expected to bring up the rear. Projected wins: 17.5
Phoenix Suns (42.5 LY), finished 39-43: Despite seeing their LaMarcus Aldridge pursuit come up short, the Suns did add Tyson Chandler and Mirza Teletovic. They’ll be able to play fast, but probably still have moves ahead of them with Markieff Morris and Eric Bledsoe both available via trade. Projected wins: 36.5
Portland Trail Blazers (48.5 LY), finished 51-31: The team that suffered the most personnel losses in the league will no longer be expected to make the playoffs, opening up the spot the Thunder are likely to claim. They’re rebuilding around Damian Lillard, but look to be in for a long season. Projected wins: 26.5
Sacramento Kings (30.5 LY), finished 29-53: Power forward DeMarcus Cousins may not be present for the long haul, or maybe he’ll win a power struggle with head coach George Karl and remain one of the league’s most productive big men. It’s tough to forecast how this season will go for a team that wants to win now and has some nice pieces, but badly is one way to go. Projected wins: 31.5
San Antonio Spurs (56.5 LY), finished 55-27: Aldridge and David West arrive, which means Tim Duncan should be even fresher come April. The fact Gregg Popovich rests players will keep regular-season expectations from being too extreme, but there’s no question that this is an impressive collection of talent that should be expected to avoid 20 losses. Projected wins: 62.5
Toronto Raptors (49.5 LY), finished 49-33: Carroll is the big offseason addition, expected to significantly upgrade the team’s perimeter defense. Considering the relative weakness of the Atlantic Division and how dead on last season’s projection was, look for it to be in a similar ballpark. Projected wins: 47.5
Utah Jazz (25.5 LY), finished 38-44: The way this team closed the regular season has many excited in their fortunes. With Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert back to anchor one of the top defensive teams in the game, look for a jump to .500 to be expected. Projected wins: 40.5
Washington Wizards (49.5 LY), finished 46-36: Pierce’s absence will be felt, but he did teach young guys how to win. That should keep the Wizards in the same vicinity of expectations, especially since Otto Porter looks ready to take a step forward in support of John Wall, Bradley Beal and bigs Nene and Marcin Gortat. Projected wins: 46.5