Saturday's Top Action
October 3, 2014
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (4-0) at OLE MISS REBELS (4-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Alabama -6, Total: 53
No. 3 Alabama hits the road on Saturday as it takes on No. 11 Ole Miss in a tough SEC battle.
The Crimson Tide have run the table through their first four contests while outscoring their opponents by an average of 28 points, but going a mere 1-2-1 ATS. Their offense has been impressive, averaging 587 yards per game and in their toughest matchup to date last week against Florida, piled up 645 yards (449 passing) while winning 42-21 as 14-point favorites. The teams combined for seven turnovers, as the Crimson Tide held the Gators to a woeful 200 yards of offense and dominated the time of possession by keeping the ball for 39:16. Ole Miss has been great in the early going and is also a perfect 4-0 SU while also covering in all four of its contests.
The Rebels have blown out their opponents by an average of 30.5 PPG while twice coughing the ball up three or more times. In their most recent game, they were 20.5-point favorites at home against Memphis and put forth a tremendous defensive effort, coming away with a 24-3 victory as they held the Tigers to 104 yards of offense, including just 23 rushing yards on 31 attempts (0.7 YPC). The Rebels have not had an SU victory in this matchup since 2003, while Alabama has held its opponent to an average of 188 total yards and 7.0 PPG over the past three meetings. Ole Miss failed to record a point in last year’s game, losing 25-0 as 14-point underdogs while the Crimson Tide ran for 254 yards and recorded 21 first downs.
Bettors should be aware that Alabama has gone 26-12 ATS (68%) when coming off two consecutive home wins since 1992 while the Rebels are an impressive 18-5 ATS (78%) in games played on turf since the beginning of the 2012 campaign. The injury report has HB Tyren Jones (undisclosed) as questionable for the Crimson Tide while Mississippi has no significant injuries to report.
Alabama’s dominance has come from its ability to attack teams from all different sources, ranking in the top-20 in passing (335.8 YPG) and rushing (258.5 YPG) while scoring 42.0 PPG (16th in FBS). QB Blake Sims (1,091 pass yards, 8 TD, 2 INT) had his best performance of the young season last week against Florida, going 23-for-33 (70%) for 445 yards (13.5 YPA) and 4 TD (1 INT). He has also done a solid job with his legs, rushing for 141 yards (6.4 YPC) and two touchdowns. The backfield is led by the tandem of HBs Derrick Henry (320 rush yards, 2 TD) and T.J. Yeldon (284 rush yards, 2 TD) while HB Kenyan Drake has provided a spark when needed with 112 yards on the ground (5.1 YPC) and a team-best four rushing touchdowns.
WR Amari Cooper has caught 43-of-92 (47%) of the team’s passes for 655 yards (15.2 avg) while pulling in five touchdown catches. HB Kenyan Drake has been explosive out of the backfield as well with 149 yards on just four receptions (37.3 avg) with two scores. As usual, the defense has put up some gaudy numbers, allowing a mere 14.0 PPG (9th in FBS) while giving up only 62 YPG on the ground (3rd in nation). DB Landon Collins (29 tackles, 1 INT) is an All-American candidate and is the leader of the stout defensive unit.
Ole Miss has done a majority of its work through the air, averaging 335.5 YPG (13th in nation) from the passing game while scoring 39.0 PPG. QB Bo Wallace (1,271 pass yards, 11 TD, 6 INT) has struggled with turnovers, but has thrown for more than 300 yards in three of the four contests this season. He has connected on an impressive 71% of his passes while getting 9.7 YPA and had two touchdowns and two interceptions in last week’s victory over Memphis. The carries for the team have been split between HBs Jaylen Walton (199 rush yards, 3 TD) and I’Tavious Mathers (151 rush yards, 2 TD) who have combined to average a solid 5.8 YPC.
Five different receivers have tallied double-digit receptions thus far with WR Laquon Treadwell (307 rec. yards, 3 TD) leading the team in yards and receptions (20) while WR Cody Core (277 rec. yards) has a team-high four touchdown grabs. The Rebels defense has been one of the best in the nation, allowing 8.5 PPG (3rd in FBS) and has given up the fourth-fewest yards in FBS (248 YPG). The defense is full of big-time playmakers, while DB Cody Prewitt is looking to provide a senior presence being a former All-American.
STANFORD CARDINAL (3-1) at NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (4-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Stanford -1.5, Total: 44
Two top-notch teams square off on Saturday afternoon as No. 9 Notre Dame hosts No. 14 Stanford.
The Cardinal (2-2 ATS) are coming off a big road victory at Washington, using the nation’s best defense to squeak out a 20-13 victory, while the Irish (3-1 ATS) recorded their fourth straight win by at least two touchdowns by knocking off Syracuse 31-15 on a neutral field in East Rutherford, NJ. Last season, these two schools played a close game that Stanford was eventually able to win 27-20. In that meeting, the Cardinal outgained the Fighting Irish, 419-263, while allowing only 64 yards on the ground (2.7 YPC). Quarterback Kevin Hogan did not have his best game (12-of-18, 158 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT), but Stanford did a great job of grinding out the game on the ground with 261 rushing yards on 51 carries (5.1 YPC). The Cardinal give up only 6.5 PPG, and that will obviously play a big role in the outcome on Saturday.
The Fighting Irish are 5-15 ATS against defenses that allow less 14.0 PPG or less since 1992, but they are also a perfect 6-0 ATS when facing a good team (60% to 75% win pct.) over the past three seasons. The offense is different than last season, as QB Everett Golson is back this season, and has shown he has improved greatly from two seasons ago when he led his team to the national championship game. Last week, he threw for 362 yards and 4 TD, while also setting a school record with 25 consecutive completions. While the Fighting Irish were able to win against Syracuse, they turned the ball over five times in that victory. If Notre Dame is going to get the win this week, it can ill-afford to turn the ball over like that.
While the defense of the Cardinal gets most of the talk, there is talent on the offensive side of the ball. QB Kevin Hogan (883 passing yards, 8 TD, 2 INT) does a great job of minimizing his mistakes and managing the offense. With such a great defense, he does not have to go out there and win games by throwing the ball 50+ times. Rather, he needs to just keep the offense moving, and capitalize if there is an opportunity. Hogan is 10-2 against ranked teams in his career, with one of his losses being against the last ranked team he played, USC in Week 2. While the running game is not the same as it was last year, this is still a talented unit that does it more by committee. RBs Barry Sanders (21 carries, 153 yards) and Remound Wright (29 carries, 151 yards) are both capable backs that are continuing to improve throughout the season. One thing they have to do is score touchdowns. The team has rushed for only four touchdowns this year, with two coming from Hogan.
The other two are from WR Ty Montgomery and FB Patrick Skov. If this duo can start running the ball better, it is going to open things up for Montgomery (26 catches, 275 yards, 3 TD), who is one of the most dynamic players in the country. He is not only a playmaker in the passing game, but also has the ability to run the ball, and return kicks. His ability to get behind the defense means that opposing teams are always going to have a safety over top against him. That allows the middle of the field to be wide open for guys like Austin Hooper (15 catches, 189 yards, 1 TD) and Devon Cajuste (11 catches, 155 yards, 3 TD). Cajuste had a touchdown in the game against the Fighting Irish, and is a difficult matchup at 6-foot-4 and 228 pounds. The defense enters this game allowing only 6.5 PPG, which is tops in the country.
Through four games, they have given up only two touchdowns. LB Blake Martinez (31 tackles) is the leading tackler on the team, always seeming to be around the ball. Sophomore LB Peter Kalambayi (15 tackles, 5 TFL, 4 sacks) gives the Cardinal a young playmaker that can get after the quarterback. Everett Golson has the ability to make plays with his feet, so the Cardinal will have to be ready to run from sideline to sideline.
Everett Golson (1,142 passing yards, 11 TD, 2 INT) has been terrific thus far in the season, also rushing for 104 yards and four touchdowns. This season he has shown much improvement on the deep ball, allowing the team to take more chances down the field, compared to when he was the quarterback two years ago. However, like the Cardinal, there has been a struggle rushing the ball. RB Greg Bryant (33 carries, 174 yards, 1 TD) has shown some potential from the position, but he has not been consistent running the football. In the game against the Orange, the Fighting Irish went to more of a short passing game. WR William Fuller (25 catches, 344 yards, 5 TD) had a big game last week, tallying 119 yards and two touchdowns. Golson has done a great job of spreading the ball around, as five Notre Dame receivers have a touchdown thus far.
The defense is led by LB Jaylon Smith (31 tackles), who does a great job of making sure every player is where he needs to be, while DL Romeo Okwara leads the team with 2.5 sacks. The unit has been outstanding this year, allowing only 11.5 PPG. Both of the teams can stifle an opponent, but the key to this game very easily could be the play of the quarterback. Hogan is the guy that has played his role for so long and knows what to do, but Golson is the type of player that can single-handedly win football games.
NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (5-0) at MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (3-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Michigan State -7, Total: 59.5
No. 10 Michigan State gets its Big Ten season kicked off on Saturday night, as it hosts undefeated No. 19 Nebraska.
Last season, Michigan State went to Lincoln and defeated the Cornhuskers, 41-28. The Spartans were outgained 392-361, but won the game in large part because they had the ball for nearly 39 minutes and forced five Nebraska turnovers. MSU QB Connor Cook, who had 193 passing yards and 1 TD in last season’s meeting, has emerged as one of the elite passers in the country. The Spartans defense has been great this year, and the team is 6-0 ATS the past two seasons after allowing 17 points or less in two consecutive games.
Nebraska has looked very good in the early part of the season, and is coming off a 45-14 victory against Illinois in the conference opener. However, the Cornhuskers have struggled on the road against ranked teams, having never beaten a ranked team in Big Ten play. The last time Nebraska has won on the road versus a ranked team was at Oklahoma State in 2010 when it was still a member of the Big 12. In last year’s matchup, Huskers RB Ameer Abdullah was able to have a productive day (123 rush yards) despite the loss. The Cornhuskers have been very good against the Spartans though, going 5-1 (SU and ATS) in the past six matchups. Although Nebraska is 11-2 ATS after scoring 31+ points in five straight games since 1992, Michigan State is 14-1 ATS in this same timeframe after allowing 450 total yards or less in a two-game stretch.
The Cornhuskers enter this game ranked 3rd in FBS rushing (354.8 YPG) and 7th in scoring (45.4 PPG), but only 82nd in passing (217.8 YPG). Tommy Armstrong Jr. (1,052 passing yards, 10 TD, 3 INT) has shown that he has the ability to make plays with his arm. With defenses so focused on the run game, he is going to have some opportunities to attack down the field. While he has shown he can be a solid passer, Armstrong is at his best when he is running the ball (50 carries, 420 yards, 2 TD). He does a great job of running the read option, which makes one of the elite running backs in the country, RB Ameer Abdullah (114 carries, 833 yards, 8 TD), even more difficult to stop. He has emerged as one of the top playmakers in the country, as evidenced by a game-winning touchdown catch late against McNeese State in Week 2. He is a very patient runner that sets up his blocking, but he also does a nice job of pass protecting.
WRs Kenny Bell (19 rec, 389 yards, 2 TD) and Jordan Westerkamp (16 rec, 316 yards, 3 TD) do a great job of making tough catches. Westerkamp has emerged as the big-play threat for the team, as the defenses tend to focus on the taller Bell. The Nebraska defense has been solid as well, allowing only 19.0 PPG (26th in nation).
The leading tackler on the team is DB Nate Gerry (30 tackles, 1 INT, 1 FF). As a sophomore, Derry figures to be matched up with Michigan State wide receiver Tony Lippett a lot. DE Randy Gregory (17 tackles, 4.5 sacks) is the leading pass rusher for the Cornhuskers, and his play will be key considering MSU's Connor Cook has shown a tendency to put the ball up in the air if pressured. But few teams have been able to get after Cook.
The Spartans have bounced back nicely since losing to the Oregon. In the past two games, Michigan State has averaged 64.5 PPG in its two victories. The offense currently ranks 3rd in the country in the scoring (50.5 PPG), 20th in rushing (252 YPG) and 48th in passing (263 YPG). QB Connor Cook (837 pass yards, 9 TD, 2 INT) may not have the biggest numbers, but he has also been taken out early in the game because of the lead. Cook is a mobile quarterback that can get outside the pocket, but he does that to allow his receivers more time to get open. While the Spartans' passing game has the potential to put up a lot of points, the ground game is where Michigan State likes to get things started. RB Jeremy Langford (37 carries, 151 yards and 3 TD against Nebraska last season) is a physical runner that gets stronger as the game goes on. Langford (62 carries, 340 yards, 3 TD) has been similar to Cook as he is not getting the amount of carries that was expected entering this season, but now that conference play is here, look for his numbers to increase.
Top WR Tony Lippett (22 catches, 421 yards, 6 TD) is one of the most explosive players in the country with touchdown catches of 64 and 71 yards on the season. For Michigan State’s offense to take it to the next level, it needs another receiver to emerge. TE Josiah Price (9 catches, 124 yards, 2 TD) is the second leading receiver on the team, and he will continue to see his targets increase as defenses double-team Lippett. While the offense of the Spartans has improved, the defense is a very talented unit. The defense ranks 35th in the country in points allowed (20.3 PPG), but 46 of the 81 points the unit has given up were against Oregon.
The defense is led by one of the top defensive linemen in the country in senior DE Shilique Calhoun (9 tackles, 2 sacks). He demands a double-team, and has shown the ability to take his play to another level in crucial games. S RJ Williamson (19 tackles) is the leading tackler on a team that flies to the football. Very rarely does any one Spartans player make a tackle by himself, and that will be a key in a game against Abdullah and Nebraska's potent ground game.
