Cnotes NFL September Best Bets-Trends-Stats Etc !

[CNOTES]

NFL

Monday, September 22

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday Night Football: Bears at Jets
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chicago Bears at New York Jets (-2.5, 44)

Jay Cutler threw four touchdown passes as the Chicago Bears rallied from a 17-point deficit to defeat the San Francisco 49ers a week ago. Cutler already has six touchdown passes and looks to add to that total when the Bears visit the New York Jets on Monday night. Cutler is 6-1 on Monday Night Football, including three straight wins, with 14 touchdowns against just three interceptions.

While the Bears rallied, the Jets imploded last week, squandering an 18-point advantage in their upset bid at Green Bay - a loss that came in typical New York fashion. Just when it appeared that the Jets had climbed back into a tie with the Packers on a long touchdown pass by Geno Smith late in the fourth quarter, officials ruled that New York offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg called timeout before the play began. Rex Ryan's group will look to bounce back from that disaster and beat the Bears for the first time since 2000.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Pinnacle Sports opened the Jets as 1-point home faves, but that is now -2.5. The total opened at 45.5 and is down to 44.

INJURY REPORT: Bears - WR Alshon Jeffery (Probable, hamstring), DE Jared Allen (Probable, back), C Roberto Garza (Questionable, ankle), S Chris Conte (Questionable, shoulder), DT Jeremiah Ratliff (Questionable, head). Jets - RB Chris Johnson (Probable, ankle), CB Dee Milliner (Questionable, quad), WR Eric Decker (Questionable, hamstring).

POWER RANKINGS: Bears (-2) + Jets (+2.25) + home field (-3.0) = Bears -1.25

ABOUT THE BEARS (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Chicago's comeback on Sunday night was even more unlikely considering that Cutler actually seemed to respond after taking a huge blow to his ribs. He threw three scoring passes to Brandon Marshall and the Bears' defense shut down the 49ers in the second half. But, not all went well for Chicago, which lost five starters on the defensive side of the ball in the contest, including All-Pro cornerback Charles Tillman, who is out for the season with a torn triceps muscle.

ABOUT THE JETS (1-1 SU, 0-1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U): The Jets could be without top receiver Eric Decker (hamstring) but they may want to run the ball anyway against a Chicago defense which ranks 27th in the league against the rush (160 yards per game). On defense, New York has yet to solve its problematic secondary and allowed Jordy Nelson to romp for 209 yards receiving last week. New York won its home opener but that victory is looking increasingly unimpressive as it came against Oakland, which appears to be one of the worst teams in the league.

TRENDS:

* Bears are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a ATS win.
* Over is 15-2 in Jets last 17 games in Week 3.

CONSENSUS: As of Sunday evening, 65 percent of wagers on Consensus were backing the Bears.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Monday, September 22


Forecasts calling for a clear evening for MNF

The weather forecast looks promising for the Chicago Bears visit to MetLife Stadium to face the New York Jets on Monday Night Football.

According to Weather Underground, skies will be sunny and clear with temperatures hovering between the high-50s and low-60s. Wind will blow toward the south endzone at around seven mph.

The Jets are currently 2.5-point home favorites with a total of 44.


Bears wide receiver questionable for Monday game

Chicago Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery has been listed as questionable heading into the Monday Night game at the New York Jets.

Jeffery is still not 100 percent following a hamstring injury which kept him questionable last week leading into the game at the San Francisco 49ers.

The South Carolina product ended up playing in that game, catching three passes (six targets) for 47 yards.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Monday, September 22


Chargers, Bengals off to hot ATS start

Three weeks into the NFL season and there are just two teams left with unblemished records against the spread, the Cincinnati Bengals and the San Diego Chargers.

The Bengals, who throttled the Tennessee Titans 33-7 Sunday, are now 3-0 straight up and ATS, covering by an average of 12 points per game.

Meanwhile the Chargers, went into Buffalo and came out with a convincing 22-10 road win to improve to 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU. The Chargers are 2-0 ATS on the road this season.


Broncos ice cold ATS to begin the season

With Sunday's loss to the Seattle Seahawks and failure to cover the spread, the Denver Broncos slipped to an 0-3 record against the spread to begin the season.

Last season, the Broncos stormed out of the gate with an ATS mark of 3-0-1 before taking their first ATS loss.

The last time the Broncos went 0-3 ATS in their first three games was in 2007. They failed to cover in their first give games and finished the season 5-11 ATS.

Denver gets a bye in Week 4 but will host the Arizona Cardinals in Week 5.


Four best over plays after Week 3

Three weeks into the NFL season and the Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars and Philadelphia Eagles have been the best over plays to this point.

All four teams have put up a 3-0 over/under record this season, some for good reasons and some not so much.

The Colts and the Eagles seem to have a good balance of scoring and mediocre defenses, while the Jaguars just get scored on. A lot.


Five teams cashing big for under bettors

The Cincinnati Bengals, Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills, Minnesota Viking and Tennessee Titans have been the best under plays so far in this young NFL season.

All five teams have put up 0-3 over/under records so far this season.

The Bengals and Cardinals have put up dominant fronts on the defensive side of the ball. Meanwhile, the Bills, Vikings and Titans have been sufficient on defense, but aren't not putting up a ton of offense.


Bengals only NFL team that hasn't been sacked

The Bengals are now the lone team in the NFL to not allow a sack yet this season. In fact, no other team has less than two. For reference, in the same time span the Jacksonville Jaguars have been sacked 17 times. The continuation of the clean sack sheet partially goes to the quick passes and lack of plays requiring more than three seconds in the pocket.

 

[CNOTES]

Week 3 Consensus Picks (Number of Selections)

1) Washington +6.5 (373) - WIN
2) Indianapolis -6.5 (352) - WIN
3) N.Y. Giants +2 (344) - WIN
4) Cincinnati -6.5 (332) - WIN
5) Dallas -1.5 (328) - WIN

Week 2 Results

1) New England (-3) - WIN
2) San Diego (+6) - WIN
3) Buffalo (+1) - WIN
4) San Francisco (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Detroit (+3) - LOSS

Week 1 Results

1) Tampa Bay (-2) - LOSS
2) Pittsburgh (-6.5) - LOSS
3) Tennessee (+3.5) - WIN
4) Detroit (-5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Betting Recap - Week 3

September 21, 2014


Overall Notes

NFL Week 3 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 11-4

Against the Spread 9-6

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 9-6

Against the Spread 7-8

Wager Totals (O/U)

Over-Under 8-7


NFL Overall Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 30-17

Against the Spread 22-24-1

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 28-19

Against the Spread 19-27-1

Wager Totals (O/U)

Over-Under 21-26

Biggest Favorite to Cash

New Orleans (-9.5) defeated Minnesota, 20-9 to pick up their first win and cover of the season.

Biggest Underdog to Cash

Oakland (+14) lost New England, 16-9 but still managed to cover. The Raiders held the Patriots to less than 300 yards, but a potential game-tying touchdown in the final minute was nullified due to holding penalty.

Biggest Underdog to Win Outright

Kansas City (+200) cruised past Miami without Jamaal Charles, 34-15 to easily cash as 5.5-point road favorites and grab their first victory.

Line Moves

The Bills, Packers, and Jaguars all received money on Sunday morning, but none of those three teams covered. Buffalo closed as 2.5-point home favorites, but suffered its first loss of the season in a 22-10 setback to San Diego. Green Bay fell to 1-2 with a 19-7 defeat at Detroit as one-point underdogs, the second poor offensive performance on the road for the Packers. The money on the Giants was dead-on, as New York closed as one-point favorites in a rout of previously unbeaten Houston.

NFC rules

The NFC faced the AFC in only two games on Sunday afternoon, but the Giants and Seahawks each took care of business at home. New York beat Houston, 30-17 for its first victory, while Seattle needed overtime to stave off Denver in a Super Bowl rematch, 26-20.

Undefeated (3-0)

Arizona, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia all captured home victories to remain unbeaten. The Eagles failed to cover as 4-point favorites against the Redskins, as that line was as high as seven earlier in the week.

Winless (0-3)

Jacksonville, Oakland, Tampa Bay. The Raiders looked the best out of these three squads with their cover at New England. Jacksonville was blown out from the beginning against Indianapolis, who was trying to avoid an 0-3 start as well. Tampa Bay may be the worst team in football, barely competing in Thursday's 56-14 defeat at Atlanta.

Favorites Seize the Day

The favorites performed well in the early kickoffs, posting a 7-3 ATS record, including the Bengals, Cowboys, Ravens cashing as public plays.

The late games saw the Chiefs and Cardinals take home the cash as underdogs, while road favorites went 3-1 SU/ATS with the 49ers the lone away 'chalk' to lose.

Totals

The early games were even split through the first 10 contests, while the 'under' went 2-1 in the late games.

The Chiefs scored a meaningless touchdown in the final seconds at Miami to cash the 'over' of 43 in a 34-15 victory.

The highest-scoring game of the day took place in Philadelphia with the Eagles holding off the Redskins, 37-34 on a 50 total. The first half total of 26 easily hit as Philadelphia led Washington at halftime, 21-20.

The Saints' defense was shredded in the first two losses at Atlanta and Cleveland, but New Orleans won a low-scoring affair over Minnesota, 20-9 to hit the 'under' of 49.5.

The Ravens kicked the game-winning field goal to go 'over' the total of 43 in a 23-21 victory at Cleveland.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's Rated Games:

*****..........................................1 - 2

DOUBLE PLAYS................................2 - 4

TRIPLE PLAYS.................................4 - 1

LIGHTS OUT...................................2 - 1


NFL Rated Games For Sept.

*****.........................................6 - 9

DOUBLE PLAYS..............................13 - 12

TRIPLE PLAYS................................8 - 1

LIGHTS OUT..................................6 - 1

Rated Play Totals..........................33 - 23 58.92%


Overall Rated Plays and Opinons

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/21/14 10-*14-*0 41.67% -*2700 Detail

09/18/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

09/15/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

09/14/14 16-*12-*0 57.14% +*1400 Detail

09/11/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

09/08/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail

09/07/14 16-*10-*0 61.54% +*2500 Detail

09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detaill


Totals 48-*42-*0 53.33% +900

 

[CNOTES]

Here is my Rated Plays on Thursday-Sunday-Monday Night Football

Thursday Night

09/04,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Seattle - 5.5 Double Play ( Winner ).......................Green Bay Under 46.5 Triple Play ( Loser ).........................36 - 16

09/11.........................Pittsburgh + 2.5 Double Play ( Loser )....................Baltimore Over 44.0 Double Play ( Loser )............................6 - 26

09/18.........................Atlanta - 6.5 Double Play ( Winner ).......................Tampa Bay Over 47.0 Double Play ( Winner ).......................56 - 14


*****..................0 - 0

Double Play.......3 - 2

Triple Play..........0 - 1

Lights Out..........0 - 0

Side 2 - 1

Total 1 - 2

Rated Total..........3 - 3.............50.00%


Sunday Night

09/07...........................Indianapolis + 3.5 ***** ( Winner )...........................Denver Under 53 ***** ( Loser )...................24 - 31

09/14...........................Chicago + 7l.0 Double Play ( Winner ).........................San Fan Over 47.0 Triple Play ( Winner )..........28 - 20

09/21,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Pittsburgh + 3.0 Triple Play ( Winner ).........................Carolina Over 42.0 Triple Play ( Winner )..........37 - 19

*****,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1 - 1

Double Play.........1 - 0

Triple Play...........3 - 0

Lights Out...........0 - 0

Sides.................3 - 0

Total.................2 - 1

Rated Plays........5 - 1............83.33 %



Monday Night

09/08..........................N.Y. Giants + 4.5 **** ( Loser )...........................Detroit Over 45 Double Play.................14 - 35

..........................Arizona - 2.5 Double Play ( Loser )........................San Diego Under 46.0 ***** ..............18 - 17

09.15..........................Philadelphia + 3.0 Double Play ( Winner ).................Indianapolis Under 53.5 *****.............30-27

09/22.........................??????????????????????? ????????????????

*****..............................1 - 2

Double Play........................2 - 1

Triple Play..........................0 - 0

Lights Out.........................0 - 0

Sides....................1 - 2

Total.....................2 - 1

Rated Totals.................3 - 3...................50.00%

 

[CNOTES]

Monday, September 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 8:30 PM ET N.Y. Jets -1.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

N.Y. Jets - Under 45 500 *****

 

[CNOTES]

NFL > (479) CHICAGO@ (480) NY JETS | 09/22/2014 - 08:35 PM

Play ON NY JETS in the first half against NFC North division opponents

The record is 19 Wins and 4 Losses for the since 1992 (+14.6 units)

 

[CNOTES]

Action Report: Moneyline heavily on Bears

The Chicago Bears looked like the team they were expected to be in Week 2. Bettors have certainly become more fascinated with the Bears high-octane passing offense, rather than the New York Jets grind-it-out football.

Moneyline bettors are backing the Bears to the tune of 72 percent against the Jets according to a spokesperson from Pinnacle Sports.

Despite the moneyline lean, spread action has been much more evenly distributed. Less than four hours before kickoff, 53 percent of spread is on the Bears +1.5.

"The spread market for the Monday Night Football Bears-Jets game opened with the Bears at +1.5 1.99 (-101). As of 4 PM ET Monday, the price was at +1.5 2.00 (even)," Pinnacle says. "While that may suggest at first glance that not a lot has happened... the spread market at Pinnacle Sports has seen nine movements made, all of them towards the Jets."

65 percent of backing has also gone towards the over (45.0) per Pinnacle.

 

[CNOTES]

Bears or Jets? NFL bloggers debate who will cover Monday night


This week, Monday Night Football brings us to MetLife Stadium where the New York Jets host the Chicago Bears as 3-point home favorites in the Week 3 finale.

The Jets have used a combination of great running (179 yards per game) and run stopping (52.5 yards allowed per game) to get out to a 1-1 straight up record and hung around with the Packers at Lambeau Field one week ago.

The Bears dropped their Week 1 game to the Buffalo Bills, but rebounded nicely to spoil the San Francisco 49er's debut at Levi's Stadium with a 28-20 victory, covering the spread as 7-point road dogs.

In order to get a grasp on this primetime matchup, we’ve enlisted the help of those who know these teams the best. Expert NFL bloggers Adam Oestmann of “Chicago Bears Huddle” and Joe Caporoso of New York blog “Turn on the Jets” strap on the pads and debate which team will not only win, but cover the spread Monday night.

WHY CHICAGO WILL COVER

Firepower

Marc Trestman honestly doesn’t care about run-pass balance, despite the fact that he talks about it each week, if only for the sole purpose of appeasing the media. And on the road versus the Jets’ secondary, I assure you he plans to attempt an offensive clinic through the air. If one Jets fans fan can tell me how that secondary stops Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, please feel free.

Tucker will stack the box

The Bears aren’t worried about Geno Smith beating them through the air, but they should be worried about the Jets’ rushing attack. All Mel Tucker needs do is stack the box and find ways to put pressure on Smith when he does drop back. Easier said than done? Maybe, but it’s a strategy that can work, as evidenced by the way Green Bay adjusted and held New York in check last week.

Santonio coming home

Santonio Holmes isn’t exactly what he used to be, but he has shown some flashes with the Bears through two weeks. Leading up to this game, there has been a little bit of bulletin board chatter around Chicago that Holmes always caught a bad rap from the New York media, not so much because he was a “locker room cancer,” but more because he simply didn’t care for reporters. I believe in motivation and intangibles, and if all else fails, Holmes could be an X-Factor in this game.


WHY NEW YORK WILL COVER

The Running Game

Chicago has the 27th ranked rushing defense in the NFL right now, while the Jets are first in the league in rushing. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that we will see plenty Chris Ivory, Chris Johnson and Bilal Powell. When the Jets get rolling on the ground they are tough to beat. A well established running game should help Geno Smith play well and keep Jay Cutler off the field as much as possible.

Strong At Home

Since Smith has taken over as the starting quarterback, the Jets are 7-2 at MetLife Stadium. In his last three home games, Smith's QB Rating is 88, 91 and 96. I'd anticipate a strong outing from the Jets still erratic quarterback and for the rest of the young roster to play well at home.

Sons Of Anarchy

The Jets have a defensive line (Sheldon Richardson, Muhammad Wilkerson, Damon Harrison and Quinton Coples) that should be able to get after Jay Cutler and force him into a few turnovers. Chicago is a different team when Cutler is sloppy and the Jets should have the personnel in the front seven that could potentially force him into that type of game.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL line watch: Don't hesitate on fading aging Brady

Spread to bet now

New England Patriots (-4) at Kansas City Chiefs

Angst is in no short supply in New England, where the offense looks worse than it has in more than a decade and there are rumors that at 37 years old, Tom Brady can no longer cover up whatever might be ailing the rest of the skill-position players.

When word starts to creep across the country about New England’s issues, the line could melt down to a field goal. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are fresh off a big victory over the Dolphins (who manhandled the Patriots only a few weeks ago) and look like they at last have a little life.

Alex Smith may not be the new Bart Starr, but he’s still better than any QB the Patriots have faced this season. Kansas City backers should grab the extra point ASAP before this becomes a field-goal line.


Spread to bet later

Detroit Lions at New York Jets (Pick)

Early money is heavily on the Lions as bettors were no doubt influenced by Detroit’s victory over Green Bay Sunday. But hang on a bit.

The Lions are not the same team on grass as they are on turf, and while the Jets aren’t football Einsteins, Rex Ryan has some talent to work with.

If serious public money continues to flow in on the Lions, in a few days the Jets might even be getting a point or a point and a half before this one kicks off. If so, it would be an ideal situation for bettors who recognize that the Lions are two different teams – depending on where the game is played.


Total to watch

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (45.5)

Yes, games against the Jaguars still count. The Colts put 44 on the board down in Jacksonville Sunday and should be pedal to the metal again this week against the 1-2 Titans.

Tennessee has given up 59 points in its last two games after taking advantage of a Chiefs team that couldn’t get out of its own way on opening day. With the Titans no more than an average defensive team and the Colts lighting it up and playing at home, the 45.5 frankly looks like a gift for Over players.

 

[CNOTES]

Bettors make gains in Week 3

September 23, 2014

After two winning weeks for Las Vegas sportsbooks to kick off the 2014 NFL season, football bettors were due to bounce back and beat them, which is exactly what happened in Week 3. However, things definitely could have been worse for the books, as a few key games kept it from being a brutal week.

Ironically, a division that struggled in the first two weeks bounced back in a big way, with the NFC East doing the most damage. The Dallas Cowboys, Washington Redskins and New York Giants all covered the spread in games with line moves in their favor. The Giants made bettors the most money following a four-point line swing and 30-17 win over the Houston Texans, opening as 2.5-point home underdogs at The Wynn sportsbook in Vegas and closing as 1.5-point favorites.

In addition, the Cowboys opened as 1-point road favorites against the St. Louis Rams and rallied back for a 34-31 victory after closing -2.5. And the Redskins stayed right with the Philadelphia Eagles until the very end, opening as 6.5-point road underdogs before closing +4 in a 37-34 loss to their division rivals.

“They haven’t been playing well except for the Eagles, so I guess everybody had to come around at some point, Johnny Avello, The Wynn's Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, said about the NFC East. “For NFL or college football, it’s hard to even talk about it on a week-to-week basis because it’s from beginning to end, and you’re going to get this ebb and flow every week.

“We’re going to have some weeks that are going to be good, and we’re going to have some weeks that are going to be awful. But you have to look at it just over time.”

Avello described Sunday’s results as “below average” rather than “awful” thanks to the later games on the schedule that allowed his book to take some back from the earlier losses. One of those games was the Super Bowl XLVIII rematch between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks, which was the most heavily bet game in Week 3, according to Avello. The defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks opened as 5-point home favorites against the Broncos and closed at -4 with most bettors backing Denver.

“Actually, I needed (the Seahawks) to score (a touchdown) in that game,” Avello said of the 26-20 Seattle victory. “So that game worked out. It wasn’t a big decision, but I needed them to cover the 4 in overtime.

“That’s a funny game because any team that’s down eight points in Seattle with 50 seconds to go and no timeouts is just not going to get down the field. It’s just not going to happen 99 out of 100 (times). There’s three guys, maybe four in football that can get it done possibly. Peyton Manning being one, (Tom) Brady being two, possibly a (Drew) Brees or Aaron Rodgers. I guess if I needed one guy to get it done, the guy that did it was the guy I’d pick to do it.”

The two prime time games that ended Week 3 also helped books overcome the big loss they took on the first one when the Atlanta Falcons hammered the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 56-14 on Thursday Night Football as 6.5-point home favorites after opening at -5.5. The Carolina Panthers lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers 37-19 as 3.5-point home favorites on Sunday Night Football after opening at -3 (-120).

The New York Jets helped The Wynn post one last victory when they lost to the Chicago Bears 27-19 on Monday Night Football. The Jets opened as 1-point home favorites and closed at -2 there compared to -1.5 at other books around town.

“A lot of late money came in on the Panthers,” Avello said before the Monday Night Football game. “I guess I could use the Bears a little bit, but the Bears are getting played too. There’s been times when I thought we were going to need a team for a bunch, and by the time the game goes off, I’ve needed the other side for a bunch.”

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Injury Report

Arizona Cardinals

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

John Abraham LB September 19, 2014 concussion IR September 6, 2015
Comments: Arizona has placed 15-year veteran John Abraham on injured reserve, ending his season with the Cardinals. The 36-year-old outside linebacker sustained a concussion in the season opener against San Diego. He left the team briefly after that, reportedly contemplating retirement, before making an attempt to return this week. He had not been able to practice, however.

Antonio Cromartie CB September 22, 2014 knee injury Day-to-Day October 5, 2014
Comments: Cromartie suffered a knee injury in the Cardinals' 23-14 win over San Francisco on Sunday.

Darnell Dockett DT August 20, 2014 torn right ACL IR September 6, 2015
Comments: Dockett was taken off the field on a cart after injuring his right leg at training camp. He is out for the season.

Daryl Washington LB May 30, 2014 Indefinite (NFL Substance Abuse Policy) suspended September 6, 2015
Comments: The NFL has suspended Arizona Cardinals inside linebacker Daryl Washington for one year for violating the league's substance abuse policy.

Atlanta Falcons

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Sam Baker T August 18, 2014 torn right patellar tendon IR September 6, 2015
Comments: Baker was ruled out for the year after injuring his right knee in a preseason game.

Drew Davis WR August 24, 2014 Placed on PUPL October 19, 2014
Comments: The Atlanta Falcons have placed Davis on the physically unable to perform list for training camp after recent foot surgery. Coach Mike Smith said that Davis, a three-year veteran, "felt some discomfort in his foot at the end of minicamp" last month and has undergone surgery.

Harry Douglas WR September 18, 2014 foot Day-to-Day September 28, 2014
Comments: Douglas left with a foot injury in the first half Thursday.

Mike Johnson G August 24, 2014 foot IR September 6, 2015
Comments: Johnson will miss another season after going down with a foot injury.

Zeke Motta S August 24, 2014 Placed on PUPL November 9, 2014
Comments: Motta begins 2014 on the physically unable to perform list.

Marquis Spruill LB August 24, 2014 torn ACL IR September 6, 2015
Comments: Spruill will miss the season with a left knee injury. Coach Mike Smith said Thursday Spruill tore his anterior cruciate ligament late in Wednesday's practice. Spruill was on the field for several minutes before walking off with the help of trainers.

Sean Weatherspoon LB June 16, 2014 ruptured Achilles' tendon IR September 7, 2015
Comments: Weatherspoon has ruptured his Achilles tendon and will miss the 2014 season.

Baltimore Ravens

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Terrence Cody NT August 30, 2014 Placed on PUPL October 19, 2014
Comments: Cody was placed on the physically-unable-to-perform list Saturday.

Dennis Pitta TE September 21, 2014 hip Day-to-Day September 6, 2015
Comments: Pitta has undergone surgery to repair a dislocated right hip and is done for the year.

Ray Rice RB September 8, 2014 Indefinite (NFL Personal Conduct Policy) suspended October 12, 2014
Comments: The NFL players' union has appealed the league's indefinite suspension of Ray Rice. Rice was originally handed a two-game suspension in July under the NFL's personal conduct policy after he was charged with assault following a Feb. 15 altercation with his then-fiancee in a casino elevator.

Brent Urban DE August 25, 2014 knee IR September 6, 2015
Comments: Urban is done for the season after tearing his right ACL in practice. The injury occurred during practice Wednesday. Coach John Harbaugh confirmed Thursday that the fourth-round pick from Virginia was lost for the year.

Buffalo Bills

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Stevenson Sylvester LB August 20, 2014 torn patellar tendon IR September 6, 2015
Comments: Sylvester has been placed on the season-ending injured reserve list.

Carolina Panthers

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Frank Alexander DE May 2, 2014 4 games (NFL Substance Abuse Policy) suspended September 28, 2014
Comments: The NFL has announced Alexander has been suspended without pay for the first four games of the 2014 regular season for violating the league's substance abuse policy.

De'Andre Presley WR August 26, 2014 stress fracture in shin Placed on PUPL November 16, 2014
Comments: Presley begins 2014 on the physically unable to perform list.

Jonathan Stewart RB September 21, 2014 right knee contusion Day-to-Day September 28, 2014
Comments: Panthers coach Ron Rivera says Pro Bowl fullback Mike Tolbert has a hairline fracture in his right leg and Stewart has a severely sprained right knee, adding to the team's mounting injury problems in the backfield.



Chicago Bears

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Brandon Marshall WR September 19, 2014 ankle Day-to-Day September 22, 2014
Comments: Marshall is active for Monday night's game against the New York Jets.

September 22, 2014 ankle Day-to-Day September 22, 2014
Comments: Marshall has injured his right ankle in the second quarter against the New York Jets, but returned to the contest in the second half.

Zach Miller TE August 15, 2014 foot IR September 6, 2015
Comments: Miller has been placed on season-ending injured reserve because of the foot injury he suffered in Thursday's 20-19 preseason victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Charles Tillman CB September 15, 2014 ruptered right triceps IR August 30, 2015
Comments: The Chicago Bears say cornerback Charles Tillman will miss the remainder of the season after tearing his right triceps.



Cincinnati Bengals

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Alex Smith TE September 16, 2014 biceps IR August 30, 2015
Comments: The Bengals put tight end Alex Smith on injured reserve Tuesday, ending his season and cutting deeper into Cincinnati's depth at the position.



Cleveland Browns

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Josh Gordon WR August 27, 2014 10 games (NFL Substance Abuse Policy) suspended

Comments: It appears Gordon, a repeat drug offender who was banned for a year for another failed test for marijuana, will play with the Browns at some point this season. Under provisions of the new drug policy the union reps approved, Gordon's suspension likely would be cut to 10 games.



Dallas Cowboys

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Josh Brent NT September 2, 2014 10 games (NFL Personal Conduct Policy) suspended November 23, 2014

Comments: Brent is being allowed to return to the NFL, though he won't play right away. The league says Brent will be suspended for the first 10 games of the season and can't participate in team activities for the first six weeks.
Jakar Hamilton S August 28, 2014 4 games (NFL Substance Abuse Policy) suspended October 5, 2014

Comments: Hamilton has been suspended for the first four games for violating the league's policy on substance abuse. The second-year player will be eligible for the final preseason game against Denver on Thursday night.

Sean Lee LB July 1, 2014 torn left ACL IR September 13, 2015
Comments: The Dallas Cowboys are placing Lee on season-ending injured reserve with a torn knee ligament.



Detroit Lions

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Bill Bentley CB September 10, 2014 torn ACL IR September 6, 2015
Comments: The Detroit Lions have put cornerback Bill Bentley on injured reserve after a knee injury in Monday night's 35-14 win over the New York Giants.

TJ Jones WR August 23, 2014 right shoulder Placed on PUPL November 9, 2014
Comments: Jones begins 2014 on the physically unable to perform list.

Stephen Tulloch LB September 22, 2014 torn left ACL IR September 28, 2014
Comments: Tulloch left Detroit's 19-7 win over Green Bay on Sunday after injuring his left knee celebrating a sack.



Green Bay Packers

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Andy Mulumba LB September 19, 2014 knee IR September 6, 2015

Comments: The Packers placed Mulumba on injured reserve with a knee injury.
B.J. Raji DT August 26, 2014 torn right biceps IR September 6, 2015

Comments: Raji was lost for the season following a right biceps injury in a preseason game against Oakland.

Khyri Thornton DT August 30, 2014 undisclosed IR September 6, 2015
Comments: Thornton was placed on injured reserve.



Indianapolis Colts

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Vick Ballard RB August 26, 2014 torn left Achilles IR September 6, 2015

Comments: Colts coach Chuck Pagano says Ballard will miss the entire season due to a torn Achilles tendon. Pagano says the running back will have surgery soon.
Stanley Havili RB August 26, 2014 undisclosed Placed on PUPL November 9, 2014

Comments: Havili will open training camp on the physically unable to perform list. Indianapolis made the announcement on the day the full 90-man roster was to report to Anderson University. The first two practices are scheduled for Thursday.
Delano Howell S August 31, 2014 neck IR November 3, 2014

Comments: Howell is seeing another specialist to determine the extent of his neck injury, and general manager Ryan Grigson says he hopes to know more before the end of this week.
Robert Mathis LB May 16, 2014 4 games (NFL Policy on PEDs) suspended

Comments: Mathis has been suspended for four games for violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing drugs. The league made the announcement Friday.
Fili Moala DE June 11, 2014 torn right ACL IR August 23, 2015

Comments: The Colts lost defensive end Fili Moala with a season-ending knee injury Wednesday.

Aaron Morgan LB July 27, 2014 undisclosed IR September 6, 2015
Comments: The Colts put linebacker Aaron Morgan on injured reserve Sunday.

Donald Thomas G July 31, 2014 right quadriceps IR August 1, 2015
Comments: Thomas was placed on injured reserve after tearing his right quadriceps again.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Justin Blackmon WR November 1, 2013 Indefinite (NFL Substance Abuse Policy) suspended September 1, 2014

Comments: Blackmon has been suspended indefinitely without pay for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy. This is at least his third violation in about 18 months. And the Jacksonville Jaguars are acknowledging he has a problem.

Ace Sanders WR July 23, 2014 4 games (NFL Substance Abuse Policy) suspended October 5, 2014
Comments: Sanders says he is facing a four-game suspension and won't be around for the majority of training camp.

Nathan Slaughter WR August 7, 2014 sprained left foot IR September 6, 2015
Comments: Slaughter was waived Wednesday after spraining his left foot Tuesday.



Kansas City Chiefs

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Jamaal Charles RB September 14, 2014 high ankle sprain Day-to-Day September 29, 2014
Comments: Charles is inactive for the Kansas City Chiefs against Miami because of a high ankle sprain.

Sanders Commings S August 25, 2014 broken ankle IR September 6, 2015
Comments: Commings is out for the season with a broken ankle.

Derrick Johnson LB September 9, 2014 ruptured right Achilles IR September 6, 2015
Comments: Johnson and starting defensive tackle Mike DeVito will miss the remainder of the Kansas City Chiefs' season after MRI exams confirmed that both players ruptured their right Achilles tendons in Sunday's loss to Tennessee.

Donald Stephenson T August 22, 2014 4 games (NFL Policy on PEDs) suspended October 5, 2014
Comments: Stephenson has been suspended by the NFL for the first four games of the regular season for violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing substances.



Miami Dolphins

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Dannell Ellerbe LB September 8, 2014 hip IR April 1, 2015
Comments: Ellerbe is out for the season.

Reshad Jones S August 8, 2014 4 games (NFL Substance Abuse Policy) suspended October 5, 2014
Comments: Jones has become the second Miami Dolphins player this summer to run afoul of the NFL policy on performance-enhancing substances. He was suspended Friday for the first four games of the regular season.

Dion Jordan DE September 19, 2014 4 games (NFL Substance Abuse Policy) suspended October 12, 2014
Comments: Jordan has been suspended for the first four games of the season after testing positive for a stimulant prohibited under the NFL's policy on use of performance-enhancing substances.



Minnesota Vikings

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Matt Cassel QB September 21, 2014 toe Day-to-Day October 12, 2014
Comments: The Minnesota Vikings say they won't be able to determine a timetable on Cassel's return until he sees a specialist Thursday.

Kyle Rudolph TE November 4, 2013 fractured left foot Day-to-Day December 15, 2013
Comments: Minnesota Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph will miss at least the next month with a fractured left foot. Vikings coach Leslie Frazier gave the update Monday, one day after Rudolph was injured in a 27-23 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.

Josh Samuda G May 14, 2014 ankle IR September 13, 2015
Comments: The Minnesota Vikings have placed Samuda on injured reserve.



New York Giants

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Trindon Holliday WR August 30, 2014 hamstring IR September 6, 2015
Comments: Holliday was placed on injured reserve Saturday.

Jerrel Jernigan WR September 16, 2014 foot IR April 1, 2015
Comments: The New York Giants placed Jernigan on season-ending injured reserve Tuesday.

Mario Manningham WR August 30, 2014 calf IR September 6, 2015
Comments: Manningham isn't going to get a second chance with the New York Giants, and neither is backup quarterback Curtis Painter.

Walter Thurmond III CB September 16, 2014 torn pectoral IR September 6, 2015
Comments: The New York Giants placed Thurmond on season-ending injured reserve Tuesday.



New York Jets

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Antwan Barnes LB August 30, 2014 knee Placed on PUPL November 2, 2014
Comments: Barnes was on the active/physically unable to perform list as the Jets reported to training camp Wednesday.

Eric Decker WR September 18, 2014 right hamstring Day-to-Day September 28, 2014
Comments: Decker left the game in the first half Monday night with a hamstring injury, and his return was questionable.

Dexter McDougle CB August 20, 2014 torn ACL IR September 6, 2015
Comments: The New York Jets have placed rookie cornerback Dexter McDougle on season-ending injured reserve after he had surgery Wednesday to repair a torn knee ligament.



Oakland Raiders

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

DJ Hayden CB August 26, 2014 foot Placed on PUPL November 9, 2014
Comments: Hayden will miss at least the first six weeks of the season after being placed on the physically unable to perform list with a stress fracture in his right foot.

Rod Streater WR September 21, 2014 broken foot Day-to-Day October 12, 2014
Comments: Streater and safety Tyvon Branch each left Sunday's game with a broken foot.


Philadelphia Eagles

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Lane Johnson T July 23, 2014 4 games (NFL Policy on PEDs) suspended October 5, 2014

Comments: Johnson has been suspended for the first four games of the season for violating the NFL's performance-enhancing drugs policy.
Mychal Kendricks LB September 15, 2014 calf Day-to-Day September 28, 2014

Comments: The Philadelphia Eagles could be without their top defensive playmaker as they face a team coming off a 41-point output last week. Kendricks, who suffered a calf injury in last Monday's win over the Indianapolis Colts, missed practice for the second straight day Thursday.

Darren Sproles RB November 3, 2013 concussion Day-to-Day November 10, 2013
Comments: Sproles left Sunday's game against the New York Jets with a concussion.



Pittsburgh Steelers

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Ryan Shazier LB September 22, 2014 right knee injury Day-to-Day September 28, 2014
Comments: Shazier left the Steelers' 37-19 win over Carolina with a right knee injury.

Ike Taylor CB September 21, 2014 broken right forearm Day-to-Day September 28, 2014
Comments: Taylor left the Steelers' 37-19 win over Carolina with an arm injury.



San Diego Chargers

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Jeromey Clary G August 26, 2014 hip surgery Placed on PUPL November 9, 2014
Comments: Clary begins 2014 on the physically unable to perform list.

Nick Hardwick C September 10, 2014 neck IR September 6, 2015
Comments: The San Diego Chargers have lost Hardwick for the season with a recurring neck stinger. Hardwick was placed on injured reserve Wednesday, four days before the Chargers play their home opener against the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks.



Ryan Mathews RB September 15, 2014 knee Day-to-Day October 12, 2014
Comments: Mathews has a sprained medial collateral ligament in his right knee and will be out for an undetermined amount of time.

Chad Rinehart G September 22, 2013 foot Day-to-Day October 20, 2013
Comments: San Diego left guard Chad Rinehart is inactive against the Jags due to a foot injury.

Manti Te'o LB September 22, 2014 foot Day-to-Day October 26, 2014
Comments: A person with knowledge of the situation says Te'o has a fractured foot and is expected to miss significant time.

Danny Woodhead RB September 21, 2014 ankle Day-to-Day September 6, 2015
Comments: Chargers coach Mike McCoy says running back Danny Woodhead has a broken lower right leg and will miss the rest of the season.

September 22, 2014 broken fibula IR September 6, 2015
Comments: Chargers coach Mike McCoy says running back Danny Woodhead has a broken lower right leg and will miss the rest of the season.


San Francisco 49ers

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

NaVorro Bowman LB August 25, 2014 torn left ACL, MCL Placed on PUPL October 26, 2014

Comments: Bowman will open 2014 on the PUP list for the Niners.

Garrett Celek TE August 25, 2014 back Placed on PUPL November 9, 2014
Comments: Celek begins 2014 on the physically unable to perform list.

Vernon Davis TE September 14, 2014 left ankle Day-to-Day September 28, 2014
Comments: Davis and his top backup Vance McDonald were inactive for Sunday's game against the Arizona Cardinals.

Kendall Hunter RB August 5, 2014 torn right ACL IR September 6, 2015
Comments: Hunter's season is over before it began. The 49ers confirmed Saturday that Hunter tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee during Friday's practice. Hunter began training camp as the No. 2 running back behind Frank Gore.

Kaleb Ramsey DT August 25, 2014 undisclosed Placed on PUPL November 9, 2014
Comments: Ramsey begins 2014 on the physically unable to perform list.

Aldon Smith LB August 29, 2014 9 games (NFL Substance Abuse Policy) suspended November 16, 2014
Comments: Smith has been suspended for nine games by the NFL after violating the NFL's substance abuse and personal conduct policies. Smith won't be eligible to return until Nov. 10, the day after the 49ers' game against the New Orleans Saints.



Seattle Seahawks

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Anthony McCoy TE July 31, 2014 torn left Achilles IR September 6, 2015
Comments: McCoy is on IR after suffering a serious Achilles injury to his left leg.



St. Louis Rams

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Sam Bradford QB August 26, 2014 torn left ACL IR September 6, 2015
Comments: Bradford has suffered a season-ending torn ACL in his left knee for the second time in nine months.

Isaiah Pead RB August 21, 2014 torn ACL IR September 6, 2015
Comments: Pead is likely out for the season with a torn ACL in his left knee.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Josh McCown QB September 18, 2014 thumb Day-to-Day September 28, 2014
Comments: McCown sprained the thumb on his throwing hand during last Thursday night's debacle, however coach Lovie Smith isn't ready to answer questions about the severity of the injury.

Gerald McCoy DT September 15, 2014 broken left hand Day-to-Day September 28, 2014
Comments: McCoy has a broken left hand, suffered on the opening defensive series of last week's loss to St. Louis.


Tennessee Titans

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Colin McCarthy LB August 26, 2014 left shoulder surgery IR September 6, 2015
Comments: McCarthy is out for the season after hurting his shoulder Saturday in Tennessee's 20-16 preseason-opening victory over Green Bay.


Washington Redskins

Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

Stephen Bowen DE August 30, 2014 Placed on PUPL November 9, 2014
Comments: Bowen begins 2014 on the physically unable to perform list.

Robert Griffin III QB September 14, 2014 dislocated left ankle Day-to-Day November 23, 2014
Comments: Two media outlets are reporting that Robert Griffin III says an MRI showed no broken bones in his injured left ankle, leaving open the possibility that he could play again this season.

DeAngelo Hall CB September 21, 2014 Achilles Day-to-Day September 6, 2015
Comments: Hall has a ruptured left Achilles and is done for the season.

September 22, 2014 ruptured left Achilles IR September 6, 2015
Comments: Hall has a ruptured left Achilles and is done for the season.

Leonard Hankerson WR August 30, 2014 Placed on PUPL November 9, 2014
Comments: Hankerson begins 2014 on the physically unable to perform list.

Duke Ihenacho S September 22, 2014 fractured heel bone IR September 6, 2015
Comments: Ihenacho also done for the season with a left foot injury.

Tanard Jackson S July 9, 2014 Indefinite (NFL Substance Abuse Policy) suspended September 6, 2015
Comments: Jackson has been suspended for a fourth time for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy. The league announced Wednesday that Jackson has been suspended indefinitely without pay.

Updated Tue Sep 23 1:42 PM EDT

 

[CNOTES]

Here is my Rated Plays on Thursday-Sunday-Monday Night Football

Thursday Night

09/04,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Seattle - 5.5 Double Play ( Winner ).......................Green Bay Under 46.5 Triple Play ( Loser ).........................36 - 16

09/11.........................Pittsburgh + 2.5 Double Play ( Loser )....................Baltimore Over 44.0 Double Play ( Loser )............................6 - 26

09/18.........................Atlanta - 6.5 Double Play ( Winner ).......................Tampa Bay Over 47.0 Double Play ( Winner ).......................56 - 14


*****..................0 - 0

Double Play.......3 - 2

Triple Play..........0 - 1

Lights Out..........0 - 0

Side 2 - 1

Total 1 - 2

Rated Total..........3 - 3.............50.00%


Sunday Night

09/07...........................Indianapolis + 3.5 ***** ( Winner )...........................Denver Under 53 ***** ( Loser )...................24 - 31

09/14...........................Chicago + 7l.0 Double Play ( Winner ).........................San Fan Over 47.0 Triple Play ( Winner )..........28 - 20

09/21,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Pittsburgh + 3.0 Triple Play ( Winner ).........................Carolina Over 42.0 Triple Play ( Winner )..........37 - 19

*****,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1 - 1

Double Play.........1 - 0

Triple Play...........3 - 0

Lights Out...........0 - 0

Sides.................3 - 0

Total.................2 - 1

Rated Plays........5 - 1............83.33 %



Monday Night

09/08..........................N.Y. Giants + 4.5 **** ( Loser )...........................Detroit Over 45 Double Play.................14 - 35

..........................Arizona - 2.5 Double Play ( Loser )........................San Diego Under 46.0 ***** ..............18 - 17

09.15..........................Philadelphia + 3.0 Double Play ( Winner ).................Indianapolis Under 53.5 *****.............30-27

09/22.........................New Your Jets - 2.5 Triple Play ( Loser )..................Chicago Under 45.0 *****...................19 - 27


*****..............................1 - 3

Double Play........................2 - 1

Triple Play..........................0 - 1

Lights Out.........................0 - 0

Sides....................1 - 3

Total.....................2 - 2

Rated Totals.................3 - 5...................37.00%

 

[CNOTES]

Over all rated picks and Opinons


Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/22/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

09/21/14 12-*14-*0 46.15% -*1700 Detail

09/18/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

09/15/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

09/14/14 16-*12-*0 57.14% +*1400 Detail

09/11/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

09/08/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail

09/07/14 16-*10-*0 61.54% +*2500 Detail

09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

Totals 50-*44-*0 53.19% +800

 

[CNOTES]

Inside the Stats - Week 4

September 23, 2014

It’s 3-for-3 in the NFL this 2014 season with no less than three undefeated teams still standing after the first three weeks of play. And at least two of the three teams – Arizona, Cincinnati and Philadelphia – will remain unscathed next week as the annual NFL Bye Week is now in effect with the Cardinals and Bengals sidelined this weekend.

As is our custom in this weekly report, let’s go inside the stats and analyze the numbers you won’t find on the scoreboard. Remember, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in games played this season through Monday, September 22nd unless noted otherwise.

Like for Like

As we head into the final week of September, college football teams, here are the leading offensive and defensive stats complied season to date against FBS teams only with a minimum of three game results. Stats compiled in FCS games are excluded.

Best Offenses Yards Per Game:
1. Texas A&M 607
2. Western Kentucky 606
3. Nebraska 601

Worst Offenses Yards Per Game:
1. Eastern Michigan 158
2. SMU 194
3. Wake Forest 221

Best Defenses Yards Per Game:
1. Louisville 245
2. Alabama 250
3. Michigan 261

Worst Defenses Yards Per Game:
1. Bowling Green 679
2. UNLV 646
3. Fresno State 600

Inside the Stats

As you know, football games are won on the field and the scoreboard. The gambling public reacts more to the score than the stats inside the game.

Here are the phony teams playing this week who won ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) in their last game; won the game but were out-gained by 100 or more yards:

-- College Football: Arizona State, Iowa, Maryland and Southern Mississippi.
-- NFL: Chicago Bears (again), Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles.

These are the teams playing this week who lost ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) in their last game; lost the game but out-yarded their opponent by 100 or more yards:

-- College Football: Louisiana Tech, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia and Western Kentucky.
-- NFL: New York Jets and Washington Redskins.

FYI: there are no games on this week’s card involving ‘double inside-out’ stat results from last week – or teams off a phony SU win but stat loss playing an opponent off a SU loss but a stat win.

Who’s Hot And Who’s Not

From a weekly NFL column that I author in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends on this week’s card from my all-knowing database:

-- Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 9-1 SU and ATS in his NFL career in division games when his team is off a SU and ATS loss in its last game.

-- Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS in his NFL career on Monday nights in games in which his team is off a win of six or more points.

-- The New Orleans Saints are 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine Sunday night appearances.

-- New York Giants head coach Tom Coughlin is 5-0-1 ATS in his NFL career in division games off his first victory of the season.

-- Teams who play and allow 35 or more points against Mike Tomlin’s Pittsburgh Steelers – the Carolina Panthers last week - are 0-7 SU and ATS in their next game.

-- The San Francisco 49ers are 16-2 ATS in games off a SU favorite loss.

Stat Of The Week

The San Diego Chargers are 23-3-1 ATS all-time versus the AFC South, including 10-0-1 the last eleven games.

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 4

September 23, 2014

Thursday, Sept. 25

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON...G-Men won and covered both meetings LY. Giants "under" 23-13-2 since late 2011. Giants and slight to "under," based on "totals" trends.


Sunday, Sept. 28

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

MIAMI vs. OAKLAND (at Wembley Stadium London)...Miami 0-3 in rare road chalk role since 2011. Dolphins also "under" 20-14-2 last 36. Slight to "under," based on "totals" and team trends.

GREEN BAY at CHICAGO...Pack has covered 6 of last 7 meetings including four straight at Soldier Field. Pack also "over" 8-2 last 10 away, Bears "over" 13-5-1 since LY after Monday "over" vs. Jets. "Over" and Packers, based on "totals" and series trends.

BUFFALO at HOUSTON...Bills were 1-6 as visiting dog LY but won at Bears in first 2014 try. Texans, based on recent Bills road woes.

TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS...Colts have won last five SU in series (3-1-1 vs. line in those), Titans not close to cover last two TY. Colts, based on series trends.

CAROLINA at BALTIMORE...Ravens "under" 7-4-1 last 12 as host. Panthers 8-1 last nine as road dog. Carolina "under" 14-6 last 20 since 2013. "Under" and Panthers, based on "totals" and team trends.

DETROIT at NY JETS...Lions still struggling on road, now 6-15-1 last 22 vs. number away since mid 2011 (0-1 2014). Jets 7-3 SU as host since LY. Jets, based on team trends.

TAMPA BAY at PITTSBURGH...Bucs laboring 0-3 SU and vs. line. Now 3-8 last 11 as road dog (0-1 for Lovie). Steelers, based on recent Bucs woes.

JACKSONVILLE at SAN DIEGO...Jags 0-3 vs. line TY, now 0-5-1 last six vs. spread. Jax "over" 7-3-1 last 11 away. Bolts 6-3 last 9 vs. line at Qualcomm. Chargers and slight to "over," based on Jag woes and "totals" trends.

PHILADELPHIA at SAN FRANCISCO...Eagles 4-1 as road dog for Chip Kelly. Also "over" 7-2 last nine away. 49ers 1-3-1 vs. points last five as host (0-1 in new Levi's TY). Eagles and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

ATLANTA at MINNESOTA...Vikes "under" first three in 2014 after "over" 12-4 LY. Minnesota 6-1 as home dog past two seasons but 0-1 in role TY. Falcons 10-6-1 as road chalk since 20111. "Under," based on "totals" trends.

NEW ORLEANS at DALLAS...Saints no covers first two on road TY, now 0-6 as road chalk since LY. Also "over" first two away in 2014 after "under" 7-1 in role LY. Cowboys 6-14 last 20 vs. line as host (0-1 TY). Also "over" 10-6 last 16 at Arlington. "Over" and Cowboys, based on "totals" and team trends.


Monday, Sept. 29

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NEW ENGLAND at KANSAS CITY...Chiefs under" 11-4 last 15 as host. Belichick,1-5 last six as road chalk. Chiefs and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Opening Line Report: Undefeated Eagles underdogs in San Fran

As we hit Week 4 of the NFL season, the better matchups are in the NFC, starting with the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles traveling to face the suddenly underwhelming San Francisco 49ers.

The Eagles (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) have been the comeback kings, rallying from behind in all three victories, including Sunday’s 37-34 shootout home win over Washington. Philadelphia, which trailed 17-7 in the second quarter, failed to cash as 4-point chalk.

The Niners, meanwhile, have dumped two in a row after a strong win at Dallas to open the season, and Sunday’s loss was particularly stunning. San Francisco led 14-6 at halftime at Arizona, but didn’t score the rest of the way in a 23-14 loss as a 3-point favorite – with backup QB Drew Stanton pacing the Cardinals to the upset.

Despite that, Bookmaker.eu lines manager John Lester pegged the 49ers 4-point faves.

“The Eagles can’t afford another slow start here,” Lester tells Covers. “The Niners are desperate for a win at this point, especially in their new stadium. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a lot Philly money from their backers and the public.”


New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Dallas Cowboys

The Saints finally got off the deck after their 0-2 SU and ATS start, dropping Minnesota 20-9 for the win and cover as 10-point favorites Sunday. The Cowboys (2-1 SU and ATS) have won and covered two in a row, including posting the largest regulation comeback in team history Sunday, coming back from a 21-0 second-quarter hole to win 34-31 as 1.5-point favorites at St. Louis.

Lester has more interest in the total than the spread.

“These are two below-average defenses, so we shaded toward the Over and sent out 53,” he said. “We know that the Saints are a different team on the road, but the bettors believe in them, not the Cowboys. We opened with Dallas as a 2.5-point dog and quickly saw action on New Orleans.”


New England Patriots (-3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

The Pats haven’t exactly been inspiring early on this season, and Sunday was no different. Laying 14 points against visiting Oakland, New England (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) scored an ugly 16-9 victory. The Chiefs (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS), another playoff team from last season off to a sluggish start, got their first win Sunday, ripping host Miami 34-15 as 5.5-point underdogs.

Lester thinks New England will be better prepared at K.C., rising to the level of the opponent.

“We’ve seen the Pats sleepwalk through games where they are double-digit chalk, and I fully expect them to be more focused this week heading to Arrowhead, which is still a difficult place to play,” Lester, of Bookmaker.eu, said. “We released Chiefs +3.5, and the early money came in on New England.”


Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (N/A)

The Packers (1-2 SU) have yet to cover this season (0-2-1 ATS) and the push came in their lone victory, a Week 2 win at the New York Jets that required coming back from a 21-3 deficit. Green Bay managed just one score in a 19-7 loss at Detroit getting 1 point Sunday.

The Bears, meanwhile, stumbled out of the gate by losing to Buffalo at home, but made a big comeback of their own in Week 2, rallying past host San Francisco for a 28-20 win as 7-point pups.

It should be a typical NFC North slugfest, but with Chicago visiting the Jets in the Monday night game to wrap up Week 3, Lester hasn’t sent out a line yet.

“If there aren’t any major injuries for the Bears against New York, we will likely make them a small favorite with the home-field edge,” Lester said.

Early lines for this game popping up, have this spread around a pick’em.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL line watch: Don't hesitate on fading aging Brady

Spread to bet now

New England Patriots (-4) at Kansas City Chiefs

Angst is in no short supply in New England, where the offense looks worse than it has in more than a decade and there are rumors that at 37 years old, Tom Brady can no longer cover up whatever might be ailing the rest of the skill-position players.

When word starts to creep across the country about New England’s issues, the line could melt down to a field goal. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are fresh off a big victory over the Dolphins (who manhandled the Patriots only a few weeks ago) and look like they at last have a little life.

Alex Smith may not be the new Bart Starr, but he’s still better than any QB the Patriots have faced this season. Kansas City backers should grab the extra point ASAP before this becomes a field-goal line.


Spread to bet later

Detroit Lions at New York Jets (Pick)

Early money is heavily on the Lions as bettors were no doubt influenced by Detroit’s victory over Green Bay Sunday. But hang on a bit.

The Lions are not the same team on grass as they are on turf, and while the Jets aren’t football Einsteins, Rex Ryan has some talent to work with.

If serious public money continues to flow in on the Lions, in a few days the Jets might even be getting a point or a point and a half before this one kicks off. If so, it would be an ideal situation for bettors who recognize that the Lions are two different teams – depending on where the game is played.


Total to watch

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (45.5)

Yes, games against the Jaguars still count. The Colts put 44 on the board down in Jacksonville Sunday and should be pedal to the metal again this week against the 1-2 Titans.

Tennessee has given up 59 points in its last two games after taking advantage of a Chiefs team that couldn’t get out of its own way on opening day. With the Titans no more than an average defensive team and the Colts lighting it up and playing at home, the 45.5 frankly looks like a gift for Over players.