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[CNOTES]

13 new officials set for 2014 NFL season

June 26, 2014


NEW YORK (AP) - The NFL hired 13 new officials for the 2014 season and promoted three veterans to referee.

First-year official Brad Allen will join the NFL as a referee from the Atlantic Coast Conference, where he has been a referee for the past nine seasons.

Allen is the first to go to the referee position in his first NFL season since Tommy Bell in 1962.

Allen has refereed several major bowl games, including the 2012 Rose Bowl and 2014 Sugar Bowl. Allen replaces veteran referee Mike Carey, who will join CBS Sports as a rules analyst.

Veteran NFL officials Ronald Torbert and Craig Wrolstad are new referees in 2014, replacing retired referees Scott Green and Ron Winter. Wrolstad has spent the past 11 seasons as a field judge while Torbert has worked the past four as a side judge.

Among the dozen new officials are side judge Shawn Hochuli, the son of referee Ed Hochuli, and field judge Brad Freeman, the son of back judge Steve Freeman, a former player with Buffalo.

Two women, line judge Sarah Thomas and head linesperson Maia Chaka, will work minicamps and preseason games this year. They are in the officiating development program and officiated in Conference USA in 2013.

''Our first-year officials were all among the best in college football, including Brad Allen, one of our new referees,'' NFL vice president of officiating Dean Blandino said.

''Brad was an outstanding referee for many years in the ACC and we are excited about having him on the field. Ron and Craig have proven to be outstanding NFL officials and they also are ready to assume the referee position.''

The other first-year officials are umpires Mark Pellis and Bryan Neale; head linesman Patrick Turner; field judges Eugene Hall and John Jenkins; side judges Alex Kemp and Scott Novak; line judge Ed Walker; and back judges Rich Martinez and Steve Patrick.

The most experienced officials are referees Walt Coleman, in his 26th season, and the Ed Hochuli, in his 25th.

In all, 119 officials will work in seven-man crews during the regular season.

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Updated Week 1 NFL odds.........

Green Bay @ Seattle (-5.5, 45)

New Orleans @ Atlanta (-2, 52)

Minnesota @ St Louis (-6, 45.5)

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-5.5, 40.5)

Jacksonville @ Philadelphia (-11, 51.5)

Oakland @ NJ Jets (-4.5, 39.5)

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-2.5, 43)

Buffalo @ Chicago (-6, 48.5)

Washington @ Houston (-2.5, 45.5)

Tennessee @ Kansas City (-6, 44)

New England (-3.5, 47) @ Miami

Carolina (-1.5, 39.5) @ Tampa Bay

San Francisco (-4.5, 48.5) @ Dallas

Indianapolis @ Denver (-7, 55.5)

NJ Giants @ Detroit (-4, 45.5)

San Diego @ Arizona (-3.5, 44.5)

 

[CNOTES]

New NFL coaches are shaping tone

July 6, 2014


From the smooth, almost laid-back approaches of Lovie Smith and Jim Caldwell to the fiery passion of Mike Zimmer, new NFL coaches are reshaping the environments of their teams.

Some have much bigger chores than others.

Bringing in a new coaching staff usually means the previous one did too much losing. That's true times seven this year as Smith takes over at Tampa Bay, Caldwell in Detroit, Zimmer in Minnesota, Ken Whisenhunt in Tennessee, Bill O'Brien in Houston, Jay Gruden in Washington and Mike Pettine in Cleveland.

PETTINE: BEING BLUNT

Pettine might have the biggest challenge because he takes over a perennial loser: Cleveland last made the playoffs in 2002. There's been discord surrounding the franchise ever since Jimmy Haslam bought it in 2012, and he's already on his third head coach.

The son of a highly successful high school coach, Pettine is bright, self-confident and media savvy, seemingly lacking the suspicious nature of so many NFL head coaches.

He doesn't pull punches, which is critical in engineering a cultural change.

''I would say no nonsense,'' Pettine says. ''I have been nicknamed BFT: Blunt Force Trauma. The days are too short to dance around subjects and I think guys appreciate that.''

SMITH: STAYING LOW-KEY

Another necessary skill is communication. Smith, who was 84-66 in nine seasons in Chicago, yet was canned after 2012, is a master at that. After the roughness of Greg Schiano's reign in Tampa, Smith's low-key style easily won over the players.

Not that Smith doesn't know how and when to be stern; he learned under Tony Dungy, a master communicator.

''It's been a while, I can honestly say, since you've seen guys smile this much and have this much fun,'' says DT Gerald McCoy, among the Bucs' best players. ''It's just a completely different feel around the building.''

CALDWELL: STAYING CALM

Caldwell also comes from the Dungy coaching tree, and he might still be the man in Indianapolis had Peyton Manning not missed 2011 after neck surgery. The Lions needed a steadying influence as head coach after the often unpredictable Jim Schwartz regime.

To some, Caldwell was a surprise choice. To others, he is the anti-Schwartz and will bring a calm steadiness to Detroit - along with more discipline for a team that sometimes stepped beyond the bounds of NFL protocol in its on-field behavior.

Caldwell has joked about his reputation for remaining even-keeled.

''There's no need for a whole lot of cussing, screaming, yelling and all that kind of stuff,'' Caldwell says. ''It's a mini-quiz out here. I never had any of my professors yelling in my ear when I was sitting at the desk filling out those multiple-choice questions.''

ZIMMER: THE TEACHER

Zimmer might be doing some yelling in Minnesota, but it will be in a constructive way. An outstanding defensive coach in Cincinnati since 2008, he was in the running for several jobs before landing the Vikings gig.

His forthright manner, confidence in his defensive schemes and tough love approach make him stand out from predecessor Leslie Frazier.

Most of all, Zimmer sees himself as an educator.

''I think one of the things of being a coach, you're a teacher,'' he says. ''You're trying to teach them about techniques, you're trying to teach them about all the different aspects of the game of football, not just offense or defense, but what the other side of the ball is thinking.''

GRUDEN: FOLLOWING HIS OWN LEAD

Gruden, the younger brother of ESPN analyst and 2003 Super Bowl-winning coach Jon Gruden, was Zimmer's alter ego in Cincinnati. Gruden ran the Bengals' offense, and when Washington decided to replace Mike Shanahan, it sought someone who could design an attack around Robert Griffin III, while also protecting the 2012 Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Nearly everything had fallen apart in the nation's capital last year, one season removed from an NFC East title. Perhaps most damaging was the fractured relationship between veteran coach and dynamic quarterback.

So Gruden is charged with fixing things on the field and off it.

''I'm not going to try to do something that Shanahan didn't, or not do something that he did, or do something that my brother did or Joe Gibbs did,'' Gruden says. ''I'm just going to try to coach the way I know how, and the way I've done it in the past, and hopefully it'll be good enough.''

WHISENHUNT: PICKING UP THE PACE

Like Gruden, Whisenhunt is considered an offensive guru. With Kurt Warner as his quarterback, he took usually downtrodden Arizona to a Super Bowl. What he likes best is a quick pace - everywhere.

His practices in Tennessee are run at a faster tempo than in previous years. Players and coaches jog from drill to drill. Whisenhunt says he hopes that's noticeable because the intent is to better mimic game speed and conditions.

''I think you have to create an intensity in practice because the game is so fast,'' he explains.

Veteran receiver Nate Washington, who was with Pittsburgh when Whisenhunt was an assistant there, says the change is impossible to miss.

''Before, things have happened in the past and we can't really sit here and try to compare the two or what's been happening before,'' he says. ''But as of right now, I have seen a lot more intensity on this team, period.''

O'BRIEN: TEAM FIRST

The excitement in Houston disappeared with a 14-game losing string that sank the Texans from AFC South champs to worst in the league. O'Brien, who could have written his own ticket at Penn State for years, instead chose to return to the NFL and take on a reclamation project.

Not as massive a challenge as the one he faced with the Nittany Lions, perhaps. But certainly a hefty one for the former offensive assistant at New England.

O'Brien delivered some not-so-subtle messages early on. Veterans don't have their names on their lockers anymore, only their numbers. A note on the inside of each locker says: ''Always put the team first.''

Rookies have a temporary cubicle set up in the middle of the locker room and won't get real ones until they make the team. That goes for everyone, even top choice Jadeveon Clowney.

''Being a head coach is about making sure the team understands the philosophy of what you want to get done: hard work, being a good teammate, team first and all of those things that we talk about every day,'' O'Brien says.

 

[CNOTES]

Jessica Simpson weds ex-NFL player

July 6, 2014


MONTECITO, Calif. (AP) - Jessica Simpson is a newlywed.

The singer and TV personality married retired NFL player Eric Johnson Saturday at San Ysidro Ranch in Montecito, California, her publicist Lauren Auslander confirms.

Simpson and Johnson began dating in 2010. They have a two-year-old daughter, Maxwell, and a one-year-old son named Ace.

Auslander said Ace served as a ring bearer and Maxwell walked down the aisle as a flower girl.

It is the second marriage for both Simpson, 33, and 34-year-old Johnson. Simpson was previously married to singer Nick Lachey. The two co-starred on a VH1 reality series ''Newlyweds: Nick and Jessica'' for three seasons. Shortly after their third wedding anniversary, the two split up.

 

[CNOTES]

Win Projections

July 7, 2014

One of the more interesting articles this time of season is the plus/minus four wins analysis; what does that mean?

Each NFL season we see approximately a dozen teams either enjoy 4+ more wins or suffer through 4+ more losses compared to the prior year – that is a significant swing considering that equals about 37.5% of all NFL teams have a 25% or greater change in their win total.

Of course this analysis is more for the straight-up analyst – really for fans of each team – but it can certainly also add value to the bettor with future plays or as a small cog in your week to week handicapping efforts if applied properly.

Initially, be sure to check out the Win Rankings for each team for each of the last five seasons along with total wins for the last five & three seasons with a ranking of each for those metrics as well.

2014 Projected Wins
- All Scenarios My Realistic Scenarios
- 2014 Projected Wins 2014 Projected Wins
Team +4 Wins -4 Wins +4 Wins -4 Wins
ARI - 6 - 6
ATL 8 - 8 -
BAL 12 4 12 -
BUF 10 2 - -
CAR - 8 - 8
CHI 12 4 12 -
CIN - 7 - 7
CLE 8 - 8 -
DAL 12 4 12 4
DEN - 9 - -
DET 11 3 11 -
GB 12 4 12 -
HOU 6 - 6 -
IND - 7 - 7
JAC 8 - - -
KC - 7 - 7
MIA 12 4 12 -
MIN 9 - 9 -
NE - 8 - 8
NO - 7 - 7
NYG 11 - 11 -
NYJ 12 4 12 4
OAK 8 - 8 -
PHI - 6 - 6
PIT 12 4 12 4
SD 13 5 13 5
SEA - 9 - 9
SF - 8 - 8
STL 11 3 - 3
TB 8 - 8 -
TEN 11 3 - 3
WAS 7 - 7 -
Possibilities 44 33


There are 44 possible outcomes under “all scenarios”, which uses strictly the math of the analysis, where teams could either improve or worsen their wins by 4+ games; the two columns to the right is where I have eliminated 11 of those 44 possible outcomes leaving us with 33 “final” choices, of which approximately a dozen will actually occur (it also just so happened those 33 are split into 17 who could improve by 4+ games & 16 who could worsen by same amount).

Of those 12 possibilities it is also a fair assumption to split those 6/6 – half of the changes will occur by teams improving (2nd to last column on right) while half will occur with teams worsening (last column on right). I am sure when you first look at those 33 potential outcomes it seems hard to believe that 12 of them will occur – but that is what makes this analysis so interesting: just like we see almost half the NFL playoff teams change YOY we will see these drastic record changes despite it looking so far-fetched as we sit here today.

What are the best ways to attempt at selecting which outcomes are most likely? One place to start is examining the first matrix I posted which shows how each team has done in each of the last five seasons – was last year an outlier? Of course there are many variables that need to be taken into account such as injuries last year, free agent additions this year, draft picks, schedule, etc...(most of those topics I will be touching on prior to the start of the season in my usual NFL season preview entries).

One additional angle I will present here is Phil Steele’s “Stock Market Indicator” (SMI) – this metric simply takes a 2-year average of each teams wins, compares it to their performance last year & can be used as a forward looking indicator.

Stock Market Indicator
Team 2011-12 Average 2013 Variance
ARI 7.5 10 (2.5)
ATL 8.5 4 4.5
BAL 9 8 1.0
BUF 6 6 0.0
CAR 9.5 12 (2.5)
CHI 9 8 1.0
CIN 10.5 11 (0.5)
CLE 4.5 4 0.5
DAL 8.5 8 0.5
DEN 13 13 0.0
DET 5.5 7 (1.5)
GB 9.5 8 1.5
HOU 7 2 5.0
IND 11 11 0.0
JAC 3 4 (1.0)
KC 6.5 11 (4.5)
MIA 7.5 8 (0.5)
MIN 7.5 5 2.5
NE 12 12 0.0
NO 9 11 (2.0)
NYG 7.5 7 0.5
NYJ 7 8 (1.0)
OAK 4 4 0.0
PHI 7 10 (3.0)
PIT 8 8 0.0
SD 8 9 (1.0)
SEA 12 13 (1.0)
SF 11.5 12 (0.5)
STL 7 7 0.0
TB 5.5 4 1.5
TEN 6.5 7 (0.5)
WAS 6.5 3 3.5


*Positive numbers in the variance column represent teams that SMI would be bullish on this year while negative numbers represent bearish teams

TEAMS THAT COULD IMPROVE BY 4+ WINS THIS YEAR (Bullish squads)

Atlanta Falcons to 8 wins: Really dropped off a cliff last year down to 4 wins after some very tough early season losses that seemed to snowball quickly. Before last year the Falcons had averaged 11.2 wins per year since QB Matt Ryan took over in 2008 including a floor of 9 wins. At the moment my calibrated wins model has the Falcons going 8-8 although they do face a tough schedule that is ranked 7th overall using my power ratings (8th toughest road & 11th toughest home) including facing the AFC & NFC North. My models also expect an improvement to their TOM, the SMI is +4.5 and they should enjoy better luck with injuries.

Houston Texans to 6 wins: Before last year’s 2-14 mark they had not won fewer than 6 games since 2005. There is still a ton of talent on this roster & although a coaching change was made to Bill O’Brien he has been successful at all prior stops including his only head coaching experience at Penn State the last couple years. Currently my calibrated wins model projects a 7-9 mark versus the weakest schedule in the NFL as measured by my power ratings (Important to note I say currently when specifically talking to calibrated wins model & SOS because they are completely driven by the power rating I apply to each team, which is fluid & not only could change before the season starts due to injury or other reasons but they shift weekly during the season). Houston suffered through the worst YOY change in TOM last season at a whopping (32) – that will no doubt improve. Considering the Texans were 21st in my performance ratings last year vs. the 10th toughest schedule, a weak division, the top SMI in the NFL at +5.0 & a new voice in the room with O’Brien I feel they should easily top this 6 win mark.

Washington Redskins to 7 wins: Despite winning 10 games & the NFC East in RG3’s rookie season of 2012 the Skins struggled mightily in 2013 going just 3-13 leading to the firing of Head Coach Mike Shanahan. That by itself should give a boost to Washington as there was a clear dysfunctional relationship between he & his prized QB – in comes Jay Gruden who has no NFL head coaching experience but has been an OC with modest success. The Skins had the 3rd worst YOY change in TOM last year which should improve this season & currently my calibrated wins model projects an 8-8 mark in 2014. Their SOS based on my current power ratings checks in at 26th in the NFL (18th on road & 28th at home) – easiest in their division, while the SMI is bullish as well at a +3.5.

TEAMS THAT COULD WORSEN BY 4+ WINS THIS YEAR (Bearish squads)

Arizona Cardinals to 6 wins: This coming year the Cardinals will face the 2nd toughest schedule in the NFL largely because they reside in the toughest division in football, but also driven by the fact they are playing the strong AFC West & the “no team is awful” NFC East. In addition to their SOS their QB is still Carson Palmer whom many believe played well last year but according to my performance ratings their offense was just 19th in the NFL including 25th in rushing offense & 30th in INT’s thrown as a % of pass attempts. With St. Louis improving & their other two divisional rivals remaining Super Bowl threats ARI is due for a dip this season – how far is yet to be determined but I feel they are amongst the handful of most likely to worsen by 4+ games.

Cincinnati Bengals to 7 wins: We have all likely seen the stat that each year we can expect to see approximately 5 new playoff teams – well that is a big reason the Bengals made the cut here unfortunately. Cincy has improved each of the last 3 seasons going from just 4 wins in 2010 to 9, 10 & 11 the last three – but this could be the year we see a step back. How fragile is Andy Dalton mentally is one big question after playing so badly in the playoffs once again. Their schedule does not appear to be a killer checking in at #23 overall but they will face the toughest amongst their divisional rivals; with Baltimore & Pittsburgh both coming off a season where they missed the playoffs, and Cleveland improving a ton not only with their on field play last year but their paper game this past offseason (sans the behavior of stud WR Josh Gordon) this could be the season the Bengals struggle & Marvin Lewis’ job is in danger. Their defense ranked #2 in my models last year but that was versus the 26th toughest schedule of opponent offenses – this year their opponent offenses will definitely be up a modest amount with the likes of New England & Denver (both of whom they did play last year), hungry Baltimore & Pittsburgh along with the NFC South juggernauts like Atlanta, New Orleans & Carolina.

Indianapolis Colts to 7 wins: Hard to argue with Indy’s success since the decision to let QB Peyton Manning walk away & draft QB Andrew Luck – the Colts have gone 11-5 & reached the playoffs in each of the last two seasons; the question is how much of that success was smoke & mirrors vs. statistically playing to a combined 22-10 mark? According to my models no team has overachieved as much in these last two years as Indy – and frankly it’s not very close. Last year they checked in at #16 in my performance rankings vs. the 17th toughest schedule – an exactly average team by both measurements, suggesting precisely an 8-8 team. Their 2014 schedule will be tough as outside their own division they will not have 1 truly “gimme” win facing Denver, New England, AFC North & NFC East. After not doing much of anything to improve their roster this past offseason, enjoying many lucky bounces over the last two years including last year’s playoff win against Kansas City and management in a bit of disarray with the personal problems their owner faced this offseason the Colts are ripe to dip in 2014.

 

[CNOTES]

Turnover Analysis

July 9, 2014

NFL 2014 Turnover Margin Analysis

It’s Impact on the Outcomes of NFL Games: Part I

If you are a statistical analyzer, and break down numbers on NFL games with any sort of regularity, you know that Turnover Margin is an incredibly important statistic in the outcome of all games. Straight up, Against the Spread – doesn’t matter. Perform well in this area, be it taking care of the ball, or taking the ball away from your opponent on a regular basis, and the likelihood you are playing football come January greatly increases.

Most NFL fans, even the casual fan that doesn’t get too involved in breaking stats down is aware of this phenomenon. But how good a tool can it be to predict future outcomes, whether it be on a week to week basis trying to pick straight up winners in your office pool, picking a few games to wager your hard earned cash on, or even trying to predict the chances your team has at making the playoffs? It’s very useful, and below I will discuss various angles and ways to utilize this one stat in your handicapping efforts.

Initially let’s examine the relationship between turnovers, points scored vs. points against (which is a team’s points margin), and projected records based on those two stats.

Turnover Margin Analysis

- POINTS TURNOVER NORM ACTUAL NEW PROJ WIN 2+

TEAM MARGIN ADV/(DIS) MARGIN RECORD RECORD VARIANCE TMS

ARI 3.44 0.00 3.44 10-6 10-6 - -

ATL (5.63) (1.25) (4.38) 4-12 5-11 (1) -

BAL (2.00) (1.25) (0.75) 8-8 8-8 - -

BUF (3.00) 0.75 (3.75) 6-10 6-10 - -

CAR 7.81 2.75 5.06 12-4 11-5 1 -

CHI (2.06) 1.25 (3.31) 8-8 6-10 2 CHI

CIN 7.81 0.25 7.56 11-5 12-4 (1) -

CLE (6.13) (2.00) (4.13) 4-12 6-10 (2) CLE

DAL 0.44 2.00 (1.56) 8-8 7-9 1 -

DEN 12.94 0.00 12.94 13-3 14-2 (1) -

DET 1.19 (3.00) 4.19 7-9 10-6 (3) DET

GB (0.69) (0.75) 0.06 8-7-1 8-8 - -

HOU (9.50) (5.00) (4.50) 2-14 5-11 (3) HOU

IND 3.44 3.25 0.19 11-5 8-8 3 IND

JAC (12.63) (1.50) (11.13) 4-12 3-13 1 -

KC 7.81 4.50 3.31 11-5 10-6 1 -

MIA (1.13) (0.50) (0.63) 8-8 8-8 - -

MIN (5.56) (3.00) (2.56) 5-10-1 6-10 - -
NE 6.63 1.75 4.88 12-4 11-5 1 -

NO 6.88 0.00 6.88 11-5 12-4 (1) -

NYG (5.56) (3.75) (1.81) 7-9 7-9 - -

NYJ (6.06) (3.50) (2.56) 8-8 6-10 2 NYJ

OAK (8.19) (2.00) (6.19) 4-12 5-11 (1) -

PHI 3.75 3.00 0.75 10-6 8-8 2 PHI

PIT 0.56 (1.00) 1.56 8-8 9-7 (1) -

SD 3.00 (1.00) 4.00 9-7 10-6 (1) -

SF 8.38 3.00 5.38 12-4 11-5 1 -

SEA 11.63 5.00 6.63 13-3 11-5 2 SEA

STL (1.00) 1.75 (2.75) 7-9 6-10 1 -

TB (6.31) 2.50 (8.81) 4-12 4-12 - -

TEN (1.19) 0.00 (1.19) 7-9 7-9 - -

WAS (9.00) (2.25) (6.75) 3-13 5-11 (2) WAS


LEGEND:

Points Margin: Points scored – points allowed for 2013 regular season

Turnover Adv/(Dis): Represents the per game impact each team’s turnovers had on their points margin. This number is derived by taking the total Turnover Margin on the season, dividing by 16 to get a “per game” TO Margin, then multiplying by 4 (or whatever value you choose to place on turnovers – discussed below)

Norm Margin: Represents normalized margin & is calculated by taking Points Margin MINUS Turnover Adv/(Dis). This figure hypothetically represents what a team’s point’s margin would have been stripping out the impact turnovers had on it

Actual Record: Straight forward, each team’s true SU record for 2013 regular season

New Proj Record: Uses the Normalized Margin calculation, and fits each into the Points Margin Pythagorean Theory matrix. It is generally assumed that teams who on average outscore their opponents by 1.5 points per game (PPG) will go 9-7, 3 PPG 10-6, 5.5 PPG 11-5 and so on increasing ppg by 2.5 points for each win – and using the reciprocal of each of those marks for losing records. Note, since these figures are quoted in decimals & rounded, the sum of 255 wins does not equal 256, the amount we see in an entire NFL season if there are no ties.

Win Variance: Calculated by taking Actual Record MINUS New Projected Record.

Next big piece of this analysis is to explain how we valued the turnover. Most analysts who work with turnovers in their models will value these at approximately being worth 4 points.

Of course this number is not set in stone, and can be debated & supported at various “point” impacts – but for this analysis I will be using 4 points. In reality, any number you select within reason – the number has to be worth anywhere between a minimum of two points and a maximum five points because a turnover either way leads to the possibility of scoring or allowing points – working with estimated % chances of scoring/allowing a FG/TD will allow you to derive your own worth of a turnover; so long as you have support & utilize a consistent value for all teams your analysis will be sound.

By using that method of “valuing” turnovers, we can calculate a new point’s margin based on a team’s pure play performance – stripping away the advantage/disadvantage turnovers had on their point’s margin. This is a valuable way to place a barometer on how team’s truly performed, statistically speaking, in their games.

Now that we have explained all the data, here is where it gets useful. As mentioned, a “model” or any analysis is only good if you back-test it, and prove that it has worked in the past.

While any model may add value for a short period of time or even a year the ones that offer the best value & assistance in your handicapping efforts are those where you apply your theory for a minimum of 5 years back & check how significant its results are vs. actual results.

Especially in this day & age there are tons & tons of new statistics, analysts & bloggers publishing their work – but the biggest issue I see many have is information overload. Sure most of the new statistics & theories can help you predict outcomes of sporting events but you should attempt at mastering a small data set & metrics, knowing how to utilize those the best you can to handicap games; you do not want to be a jack of all trades / master of none – too many times I read on Twitter handicappers using tons of different analytics & metrics every other night – there is a such thing as information overload, which is where many people go wrong.

Remember my old saying – give me either side of any game & I can give you a write-up supporting that play….

Back to this analysis, let’s first focus on the teams that achieved a record in 2013 that was above and beyond their actual performance stripping the impact of turnovers. These team’s we forecast to drop in wins from 2013 to 2014 because as we know, turnovers typically, but not always, revert back to the mean – so a team’s performance that was positively impacted by a strong TO margin the prior season often flips in the very next season.

Numerous articles have been posted on this over the years & this has proven to be a solid leading indicator for the following season, barring IMPACT signings or SIGNIFICANT free agency defections.

For the 2014 season here are some teams we would be bearish on, i.e. those that are likely to win less than they did last season:

Chicago Bears
Indianapolis Colts
New York Jets
Philadelphia Eagles
Seattle Seahawks

Now let’s move onto the team’s that were negatively impacted by TO margin in 2013, which means we expect this group to have a stronger record in 2014 comparing to 2013:

Cleveland Browns
Detroit Lions
Houston Texans
Washington Redskins

As I continually stress back-testing must be completed on any analysis to confirm its accuracy. We have done that the last few years with this analysis, but for ease let’s examine below which teams we expected to slide in the 2013 season vs. the 2012 season (posted here last summer):

Team’s that were likely to see a drop in their 2013 record went 3-1-1 as I show games won in 2012 vs. 2013 in parenthesis:

Atlanta Falcons (13 to 4): CORRECT
Houston Texans (12 to 2): CORRECT
Indianapolis Colts (11 to 11): SAME
Tennessee Titans (6 to 7): INCORRECT
Washington Redskins (10 to 3): CORRECT

Team’s that were likely to win at least one more game in 2013 vs. 2012 went 2-0-1 as change in wins is shown in parenthesis:

Detroit Lions (4 to 7): CORRECT
Kansas City Chiefs (2 to 11): CORRECT
Pittsburgh Steelers (8 to 8): SAME

In summary, using TOM’s impact on NFL Pythagorean Theory, heading into the:

2011 season there were 13 teams that were projected to slide up or down in wins – 10 moved the way we projected while 2 stayed the same; the only one that missed was SD who went from 9 to 8 wins & we forecasted a rise

2012 season there were 12 teams that were projected to slide up or down in wins – 10 moved the way projected while 2 slid opposite (SD again & PHI both were projected to drop but increased their wins vs. 2011)

2013 season there were 8 teams that were projected so slide up or down in wins – 5 moved the way projected while 2 stayed the same; the only one that missed was TEN who went from 6 to 7 & we forecasted a drop

SUMMARY: Over last three seasons we have projected 33 teams to shift their wins either up or down – only FOUR of those THIRTY THREE moved the opposite way (just 12%).

Going into the 2014 season we have nine teams projected to slide up or down in wins based on this initial look at TOM & Pythagorean Theory.

 

[CNOTES]

2015 Playoff Surprises

July 15, 2014

The NFL season is fast approaching with preseason starting in August before the regular season begins in September. It’s well known in the NFL that it’s hard to reach the postseason and the numbers back that up. Typically, almost half of the 12 teams that earned a playoff spot last year will NOT return in the following season.

Who will be the new faces in the 2014 playoffs?

I’ve got my eye on five teams that finished at .500 or below in the 2013 season and I believe they have a great chance to improve this fall.

Pittsburgh Steelers
2013 Record: 8-8

The Steel Curtain looked more like Vinyl Curtains last year. In their eight losses opponents averaged 30 points per game. After the Steelers horrible 0-4 start, they came on strong finishing 8-4. The Steelers focused on their defensive needs during the draft. The selections in the first 4 rounds were excellent.

First round pick Ryan Shazier will pay immediate dividends. He will give the Steelers the athletic linebacker they desperately need to help put pressure on the quarterback. Sacks were something Pittsburgh seldom accomplished last year ranking 25th. The Steel curtain could be revived with 2nd round pick Stephon Tuitt, a defensive lineman from Notre Dame. He is a physical specimen that will demand double teams hence freeing up the LBs to attack the QB.

Big Ben Roethlisberger needed a companion wide receiver to line up across Antonio Brown and they will get it with the rookie Martavis Bryant from Clemson.

2014 Impact Player: Dri Archer - RB/KR is the fastest player in the draft
2014 Prediction: Steelers 11-5 (AFC North Winner)

Baltimore Ravens
2013 Record: 8-8

The defending Super Bowl champions of 2013 had a letdown thanks to its inept offense. The Ravens boosted their chances to get back to the Super Bowl this offseason by adding free agent wide receiver Steve Smith. He is a possession WR that was needed by quarterback Joe Flacco.

Tight end Dennis Pita is healthy again and will add another valuable receiver for Flacco. Another great pick up in the draft was Wake Forest WR Michael Campanaro. He is a slot WR and could be considered a poor man’s Wes Welker. Baltimore also added some great picks on the offensive line, which was certainly needed to help the running game and Flacco.

2014 Impact Player: CB/FS Terrence Brooks from FSU
2014 Prediction: Ravens 10-6 (AFC Wild Card)

Chicago Bears
2013 Record: 8-8

The Bears front office gets an A+ for their recent free agent moves and draft selections. Bears will go from Cubs to Grizzlies with new FA acquisition of Jared Allen from the Vikings.

Chicago was ranked last in defense in both sacks (31) and rushing yard allowed (2,500). While Allen gives the Bears a pass rush, the recent additions of Lamar Houston and Willie Young give them depth on defense. These moves will allow undersized Shea McClellin to move back to his natural position of linebacker.

In the draft, Chicago used its first three picks on defense. Cornerback Kyle Fuller was selected 14th overall and should help a secondary that’s getting older. Defensive linemen Ego Ferguson and Will Sutton are expected to add depth and help the loss of defensive end Julius Peppers.

Offensively, the Bears picked up Ka’deem Carey out of Arizona in the fourth round, which should help spell Matt Forte.

If QB Jay Cutler can stay healthy with his returning OL, the offense should continue to excel, especially with wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey.

2014 Impact Player: Ego Ferguson DL
2014 Prediction: Bears go 11-5 to win Division.

Detroit Lions
2013 Record: 7-9

Will Detroit finally roar like a Lion or disappoint and purr like a kitten? Something you might not know. The Lions were made “Kings” by Las Vegas last year as they made them the favorites in 14 out of 16 games. After the Lions started the 2013 season with a 6-3 record, they took their customary nose dive going 1-6 the rest of the season.

They went out and picked a TE Eric Ebron from North Carolina in the 1st round which made no sense to me as they are loaded on the offensive side of the ball, led by WR Calvin Johnson. It's their second round selection of LB from BYU Kyle Van Noy that makes sense. He will help open things up for the heralded defensive of the Lions and will help relieve Ndamukong Suh from double teams. They also got IVY-league sleeper Caraun Reid, a defensive tackle from Princeton that is expected to create problems.

2014 Impact player: LB Kyle Van Noy
2014 Prediction: 10-6 (NFC Wild Card)

Washington Redskins
2013 Record: 3-13

So far we have picked four teams that were not shockers. This Redskins selection is one. They have gone through a completely different coaching staff. There biggest offseason move was a good one in getting former Philadelphia Eagles WR Desean Jackson, who always gave the ‘Skins fits when he played for Philadelphia. One of the biggest issues for the Redskins was protecting QB Robert Griffin III. Washington elected to draft two offensive linemen in Morgan Moses and Spencer Long, which will boost depth.

The biggest reason why I’m high on the Redskins is because of their schedule. The NFC East is tough but I’m predicting a 3-3 record and that’s worst-case scenario. Outside of those six matchups, Washington will face Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, and Minnesota. All winnable games in my opinion.

2014 Impact player: WR Desean Jackson
2014 Prediction: 9-7 (NFC East Winner)

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: NFL trends to ponder........

13) Cowboys covered once in their last nine Monday night games.

12) Chargers beat the spread in their last seven visits to Denver.

11) Dolphins covered 11 of last 13 as an underdog of less than 5 points.

10) Oakland is 0-6 vs spread in game following their last six wins/covers; they've covered seven of their last eight visits to Kansas City.

9) Philadelphia is 10-23-1 against spread at home the lasst four years.

8) Saints are 0-6 vs spread in last six Thursday games, but covered their last five Monday night home games.

7) Carolina is 0-5 vs spread in game following their last five meetings with division rival New Orleans.

6) Baltimore Ravens covered once in their last seven Thursday games.

5) Falcons covered only two of last seven visits to Tampa Bay.

4) 49ers covered eight of last nine Monday night games, but are 2-8 vs spread in game before their last ten MNF appearances.

3) Green Bay covered once in last seven tries as a road favorite of 7+ points.

2) Tennessee covered its last six games as a double digit favorite.

1) Jets are 0-8 vs spread the last eight times they played after losing as a favorite the week before.

 

[CNOTES]

Home 'Dog Breakdown

July 20, 2014

The myth of receiving value by backing home underdogs in the NFL isn’t always exactly the case. Last season, home ‘dogs owned a 42-45-2 ATS (48%) record, which is hardly something to have faith as a long-term bettor just blindly taking the points with these clubs. Looking closer into last season, a majority of the success for these ‘dogs came in the first month of the campaign.

Through the first five weeks of the 2013 season, home ‘dogs compiled an impressive 17-11 ATS (60.7%) ledger, which including a 5-2 ATS mark in Week 5. Among the highlights in this stretch, the Bills cashed three times in this role, including outright victories over the Panthers in Week 2 and the Ravens in Week 4, while covering as 10-point ‘dogs against New England in a 23-21 setback in the season opener. Among the 17 teams that covered in the opening five weeks, 13 times won outright, with the highest payoff coming from the Raiders in a Week 5 night victory over the Chargers as six-point ‘dogs and +215 on moneyline.

However, the success of the home ‘dog dipped during the final 12 weeks of the regular season, compiling a 25-34-2 ATS (42%) in this span. For six consecutive weeks from Week 6-11, at least five teams were listed as home underdogs, while only profiting in Week 11, albeit barely at 3-2 ATS. The most profitable home ‘dog when the season concluded was Buffalo, who cashed five times in this role.

One team that seemed like an automatic fade when receiving points at home was Jacksonville, as the Jaguars put together a putrid 1-6-1 ATS record in this role in 2013. The first five losses for the Jags came by double-digits, while the last three games were competitive, which included a 27-20 December victory as three-point ‘dogs against the Texans.

On the flip side, backing some of the best teams in the league as a road favorite was an extremely profitable venture. The 49ers owned a perfect 5-0 ATS record when laying points on the road, while the two conference champions, the Seahawks and Broncos, each put together a 5-2 ATS mark as an away favorite. Both Seattle and Denver coincidentally lost at Indianapolis, while one of the Seahawks’ ATS defeats came as a 13-point favorite at St. Louis in a 14-9 victory.

Short home ‘dogs weren’t winning plays in the long run in 2013, as these clubs that received 1 ½ points or fewer posted a dreadful 6-13 ATS mark. If these teams are taken away, then the overall number is slightly profitable at 36-32-2 ATS on home ‘dogs that were listed at two points or higher. Six times during the season, clubs that received at least 9 ½ points failed to cover at home, as opposed to only two covers by teams in this pointspread range (Bills – Week 1, Rams – Week 8).

Looking ahead to the 2014 season, three squads are listed as home underdogs in Week 1, as the Dolphins, Buccaneers, and Cowboys all will receive points in the opening week. Miami (+3 ½) split a pair of games with New England last season, while Tampa Bay (+ 1 ½) was blown out twice by Carolina in 2013. The Cowboys (+4) host the 49ers, as Dallas owns a 5-2 ATS record since 2010 when getting points at home.

 

[cloverleaf]

Excellent thread Mr. C.

Damn good information for a player trying to figure out the NFL this season.

Appreciate the time and effort for this forum sir!

 

[CNOTES]

lol....THANKS CLOVERLEAF....SPREAD THE WORD.......ALL THE INFOR YOU NEED IS HERE........Thankyou)(&

 

[CNOTES]

AFC West Preview: Broncos, Manning stay on top

With record-smashing Peyton Manning at quarterback and a revitalized defense, the Denver Broncos are the best in the AFC West according to a survey of The Sports Xchange football staff.

San Diego and Kansas City are expected to wage a close battle for second place while the rebuilt Oakland Raiders enter 2014 as a bit of a mystery, but picked to finish last.

Here is a closer look at the AFC West teams as training camps begin (teams listed in alphabetical order):


CAMP PREVIEW: Denver Broncos

--TSX Predicts: 1st in AFC West

--2013: 13-3, 1st in AFC West; AFC Champion.

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Paul D. Bowlen Memorial Broncos Centre, Englewood, Colo., 7/23, 7/23

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .500 (15/32); non-division .613 (1/32); overall .570 (2/32).

--Primetime Games: 5 (1 Thursday, 3 Sunday night, 1 Monday night)

--STRENGTH: Quarterback Peyton Manning. As long as he is upright, the Broncos are a championship threat. In spite of being without six defensive starters and their starting left tackle by the AFC Championship Game, Manning was still able to lead the Broncos past the Patriots with a 400-yard day.

The Broncos showed last year that they had enough depth to get by, even without All-Pros Von Miller and Ryan Clady, who combined to miss 27 games in the regular season and playoffs. That was because Manning could

--WEAKNESS: Running back. It's not that starter Montee Ball is not capable. After overcoming fumbling issues in 2013, he had a higher per-carry average than then-first teamer Knowshon Moreno for the last five games of the regular season and through the playoffs. But the Broncos will platoon at least two runners a game this year, and nothing behind Ball is proven.

Third-year running back Ronnie Hillman has the draft pedigree, as a third-round pick in 2012, but has been a disappointment and was inactive throughout the Broncos' playoff run in January. C.J. Anderson, an undrafted rookie last year, passed Hillman on the depth chart; he is short but strong, and has potential. Three undrafted rookies and former Vikings camp hand Jerodis Williams round out the group. If the Broncos lose Ball, they're left with inexperience, and perhaps will have to seek a veteran still on the market out of necessity.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--CB Bradley Roby (1/31): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Cody Latimer (2/56): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--T Michael Schofield (3/95): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Lamin Barrow (5/156): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--C Matt Paradis (6/207): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Corey Nelson (7/242): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--WR Andre Caldwell: Potential UFA; $3.45M/2 yr.

--T Winston Justice: UFA; 1 yr, terms unknown.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--C Will Montgomery: FA Redskins; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--WR Emmanuel Sanders: UFA Steelers; $15M/3 yrs, $6M guaranteed.

--CB Aqib Talib: UFA Patriots; $57M/6 yrs, $5M SB/$26M guaranteed.

--S T.J. Ward: UFA Browns; $22.5M/4 yrs, $14M guaranteed.

--DE DeMarcus Ware: FA Cowboys; $30M/3 yrs, $20M guaranteed.

PLAYERS LOST

--S Mike Adams: Not tendered as UFA/Colts; terms unknown.

--DE Robert Ayers: UFA Giants; $4M/2 yrs, $1M SB/$1.75M guaranteed.

--CB Champ Bailey (released).

--G Zane Beadles: UFA Jaguars; $30M/5 yrs, $12.5M guaranteed.

--WR Eric Decker: UFA Jets; $36.25M/5 yrs, $7.5M SB/$15M guaranteed.

--KR/PR Trindon Holliday: Not tendered as ERFA/Giants; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--S Michael Huff (not tendered as UFA).

--CB Quentin Jammer (not tendered as UFA).

--G Chris Kuper (retired).

--LB Paris Lenon (not tendered as UFA).

--DE Jeremy Mincey: UFA Cowboys; $4.5M/2 yrs, $2M guaranteed.

--RB Knowshon Moreno: UFA Dolphins; $2M/1 yr, $500,000 SB/$1.25M guaranteed.

--DE Shaun Phillips: UFA Titans; $6M/2 yrs.

--CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie: UFA Giants; $35M/5 yrs, $10M SB/$13.98M guaranteed.

--LB Wesley Woodyard: UFA Titans; $16M/4 yrs.


CAMP PREVIEW: Kansas City Chiefs

--TSX Predicts: Tie for 2nd in AFC West

--2013: 11-5, 2nd in AFC West

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Missouri Western State University, St. Joseph, Mo., 7/20, 7/23

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .542 (T11/32); non-division .569 (2/32); overall .559 (7/32).

--Primetime Games: 3 (1 Thursday, 1 Sunday night, 1 Monday night)

--STRENGTH: Linebacker. The power of the Chiefs roster can be seen in their three Pro Bowl linebackers -- Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson and Justin Houston. The team added to this group 2014 first-round draft choice Dee Ford.

If Houston and the Chiefs work out a contract extension and the linebacker does not miss a lot of training camp time in a holdout, it will be hard for Ford to get a lot of snaps in the K.C. defense.

But the Auburn rookie -- a productive college defensive end-turned linebacker -- was so impressive in the team's offseason practices the coaching staff may not be able to keep him on the sidelines.

Defensive coordinator Bob Sutton will spend the pre-camp break brainstorming on schemes where Hali, Houston and Ford are rushing the passer together.

WEAKNESS: Wide receiver. The Chiefs have 12 wide receivers on the 90-man roster. Six have played at least one NFL game, but only two have more than 50 league appearances -- Dwayne Bowe (103) and Donnie Avery (71). Last season, the wide receivers accounted for 52 percent of the team's passing offense, with Bowe and Avery producing ordinary performances with just seven touchdown catches total and averaged only 13.1 yards per catch (91 receptions, 1,269 yards).

The Chiefs needed to be active adding receivers in free agency and the draft. Slot receiver Dexter McCluster signed with Tennessee in free agency. But the closest Kansas City came was selecting University of Oregon running back De'Anthony Thomas in the fifth-round and he will play everywhere in head coach Andy Reid's offense, including wide receiver.

They added other bodies without NFL experience: 5-foot-7, 180-pound Weston Dressler from the Canadian Football League (98 games, 442 catches, 6,536 yards, 43 touchdowns) and Jerrell Jackson, who played 19 games in Arena Football. Apparently, the Chiefs could not afford NFL free-agent receivers.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--LB Dee Ford (1/23): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Phillip Gaines (3/87): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--RB De'Anthony Thomas (4/124): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--QB Aaron Murray (5/163): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--G Zach Fulton (6/193): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--G Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (6/200): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--S Husain Abdullah: UFA; terms unknown.

--LS Thomas Gafford: Potential UFA; $730,000/1 yr.

--LB Frank Zombo: Potential UFA; $1.625M/2 yrs, $100,000 SB.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--G/T Jeff Linkenbach: UFA Colts; terms unknown.

--DT Kyle Love: Not tendered as RFA by Jaguars; terms unknown.

--ILB Joe Mays: UFA Texans; $6M/2 yrs.

--CB Christopher Owens: UFA Dolphins; terms unknown.

--DT Vance Walker: UFA Raiders; $10.02M/3 yrs, $3M SB.

--OT J'Marcus Webb: UFA Vikings; terms unknown.

PLAYERS LOST

--T Branden Albert: UFA Dolphins; $46M/5 yrs, $8.5M SB/$25M guaranteed.

--G Jon Asamoah: UFA Falcons; $22.5M/5 yrs, $8M guaranteed.

--S Quintin Demps: UFA Giants; $1M/1 yr, $100,000 SB/$100,000 RB.

--CB Brandon Flowers (released).

--DT Tyson Jackson: UFA Falcons: $25M/5 yrs.

--S Kendrick Lewis: UFA Texans; $795,000/1 yr, $100,000 guaranteed.

--WR Dexter McCluster: UFA Titans; $12M/3 yrs, $4.5M guaranteed.

--CB Dunta Robinson (released).

--G Geoff Schwartz: UFA Giants; $16.8M/4 yrs, $3.2M SB/$6.2M guaranteed.


CAMP PREVIEW: Oakland Raiders

--TSX Predicts: 4th in AFC West

--2013: 4-12, 4th in AFC West

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Napa Valley Marriott, Napa, Calif., 7/24, 7/24

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .688 (2/32); non-division .513 (T13/32); overall .578 (1/32).

--Primetime Games: 1 (1 Thursday)

--STRENGTH: A refurbished front seven. The Raiders let their best defensive lineman get away in free agency and needed 15 different players to record 38 sacks, but rebuilt their front seven to the point where it is the strongest part of their team.

--WEAKNESS: Tight end. The only area the Raiders failed to address in the offseason was tight end. Second-year pro Mychal Rivera has the inside track to start based on 38 receptions for 407 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie. At 6-foot-3, 245 pounds, Rivera is more of a receiver than a blocker and is often split wide and goes in motion.

David Ausberry, who spent most of last season on injured reserve with a shoulder injury, has a similar skill set. Nick Kasa, in his second year out of Colorado, is in his third year at the position after being moved from the defensive line and is a project as an in-line tight end. Brian Leonhardt, on the practice squad last year, and undrafted free agents Jake Murphy and Scott Simonson round out the group.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--LB Khalil Mack (1/5): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--QB Derek Carr (2/36): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--G Gabe Jackson (3/81): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--DT Justin Ellis (4/107): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Keith McGill (4/116): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB T.J. Carrie (7/219): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--DE Shelby Harris (7/235): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--S Jonathan Dowling (7/247): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--G/T Khalif Barnes: Potential UFA; $1.2M/1 yrs, $100,000 SB.

--RB Darren McFadden: UFA; $1.75M/1 yr.

--DT Pat Sims: UFA; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--S Charles Woodson: UFA; $2.15M/1 yr, $1.15M guaranteed.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--OL Kevin Boothe: UFA Giants; $2.625M/2 yrs, $300,000 RB.

--CB Tarell Brown: UFA 49ers; $3.5M guaranteed/1 yr.

--T Austin Howard: UFA Jets; $30M/5 yrs, $15M guaranteed.

--WR James Jones: UFA Packers; $10M/3 yrs, $3.65M guaranteed.

--RB Maurice Jones-Drew: UFA Jaguars; $7.5M/3 yrs, $1.2M guaranteed RB.

--T Donald Penn: FA Buccaneers; 2 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Carlos Rogers: FA Redskins; terms unknown.

--QB Matt Schaub (trade Texans).

--DT Antonio Smith: UFA Texans; $9M/2 yrs.

--DE Justin Tuck: UFA Giants; $11M/2 yrs.

--LB LaMarr Woodley: FA Steelers; 2 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS LOST

--G Mike Brisiel (released).

--WR Jacoby Ford: UFA Jets; $740,000/1 yr, $65,000 SB.

--DE Lamarr Houston: UFA Bears; $35M.5 yrs, $4.95M SB/$15M guaranteed.

--CB Mike Jenkins: UFA Buccaneers; $1.5M/1 yr.

--RB Rashad Jennings: UFA Giants; $10M/4 yrs, $2.25M/SB/$2.98M guaranteed.

--TE Jeron Mastrud: Not tendered as UFA/Bears; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--T Tony Pashos (not tendered as UFA).

--CB Tracy Porter: UFA Redskins; terms unknown.

--QB Terrelle Pryor (traded Seahawks).

--T Jared Veldheer: UFA Cardinals; $35M/5 yrs, $6.25M SB/$17M guaranteed.

--DT Vance Walker: UFA Chiefs; $10.02M/3 yrs, $3M SB.


CAMP PREVIEW: San Diego Chargers

--TSX Predicts: Tie for 2nd in AFC West

--2013: 9-7, 3rd in AFC West

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Chargers Park, San Diego, Calif., 7/23, 7/23

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .583 (T6/32); non-division .563 (3/32); overall .563 (T4/32).

--Primetime Games: 4 (1 Thursday, 1 Saturday, 1 Sunday night, 1 Monday night)

--STRENGTH: Quarterback Philip Rivers and the passing game. With Mike McCoy being a head coach with an offensive bent, and Philips being one of the NFL's most accurate quarterbacks, it is obvious the Chargers will again lean on their passing game.

Rivers will have another year in McCoy's quick-strike, up-tempo system and he's got a favorite receiver, Malcom Floyd, back from injury.

The Chargers will preach offensive balance, but this squad will only go as far as its passing game takes it.

--WEAKNESS: Cornerback. It's no mystery why the Chargers spent their top pick on cornerback Jason Verrett, even if he does stand a mere 5-foot-9. The Chargers were last in the AFC defending the pass. Consider this: the Chargers' cornerbacks combined for three interceptions last year. Two of the players collecting them, Derek Cox and Johnny Patrick, are no longer with the club.

The position was helped with the June signing of Brandon Flowers, who had been released by division rival Kansas City. Shareece Wright and Richard Marshall will also competing for playing time.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--CB Jason Verrett (1/25): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Jeremiah Attaochu (2/50): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--G Chris Watt (3/89): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--NT Ryan Carrethers (5/165); 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--RB Marion Grice (6/201): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Tevin Reese (7/240): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--LB Donald Butler: Potential UFA; $51.8M/7 yrs, $11.15M SB/$12M OB 2017.

--CB Richard Marshall: UFA; $855,000/1 yr.

--G Rich Ohrnberger: UFA; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--G/T Chad Rinehart: Potential UFA; $6M/2 yrs.

--S Darrell Stuckey: Potential UFA; terms unknown.

--ILB Reggie Walker: UFA; 2 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--QB Kellen Clemens: UFA Rams; 2 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Brandon Flowers: FA Chiefs; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--CB Brandon Ghee: UFA Bengals; $1.65M/2 yrs.

--TE David Johnson: UFA Steelers; 2 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS LOST

--RB Ronnie Brown (not tendered as UFA).

--CB Derek Cox (released).

--FB Le'Ron McClain (released).

--DT Cam Thomas: UFA Steelers; $4M/2 yrs, $1M SB.

--QB Charlie Whitehurst: UFA Titans; $4.25M/2 yrs, $1M SB/$2M guaranteed.

 

[CNOTES]

AFC South Preview: Colts, Luck are the draw

After one of the biggest nosedives in NFL history, the Houston Texans should rebound from their 2-14 embarrassment and earn respectability, but not a division title.

That will once again go to the Indianapolis Colts, according to a survey The Sports Xchange's football staff, which expects Jacksonville and Tennessee to battle it out for the basement spot that Houston will vacate this year.

Here is a closer look at AFC South teams as training camp begins (teams listed alphabetically):

CAMP PREVIEW: Houston Texans

--TSX Predicts: 2nd in AFC South

--2013: 2-14, 4th in AFC South

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Houston Methodist Training Center, Houston, Tex., 7/21, 7/25

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .458 (T19/32); non-division .431 (31/32); overall .441 (30/32).

--Primetime Games: 2 (1 Thursday, 1 Monday Night)

--STRENGTH: The front seven with four former first-round picks -- end J.J. Watt, inside linebacker Brian Cushing, outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney and outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus -- and a former second-round pick, inside linebacker Brooks Reed.

--WEAKNESS: Defensive back. The Texans' defense ranked third worst out of 32 teams last season in average passing yards allowed per game (195.2). They went from bad to worse with the mid-season departure of veteran Ed Reed and rarely played as one. The offseason loss of veteran Danieal Manning doesn't help and leaves the Texans relying on a list of little-known names to tighten an erratic secondary in defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel's first year with the team.

Veteran safeties Kendrick Lewis and Chris Clemons were added via free agency, while Shiloh Keo and D.J. Swearinger will again compete for starting spots. At cornerback, returning players Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson will lead a young, inexperienced group.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--LB Jadeveon Clowney (1/1); 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--TE C.J. Fiedorowicz (3/65): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--NT Louis Nix III (3/83): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--QB Tom Savage (4/135): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--DE Jeoffrey Pagan (6/177): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--RB Alfred Blue (6/181): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--FB Jay Prosch (6/211): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Andre Hal (7/216): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--S Lonnie Ballentine (7/256): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--TE Garrett Graham: UFA; $11.25M/3 yrs, $4.5M guaranteed.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--RB Andre Brown: UFA Giants; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--S Chris Clemons: UFA Dolphins; $2.7M/2 yrs, $450,000 SB.

--LB Akeem Dent (trade Falcons).

--QB Ryan Fitzpatrick: FA Titans; $7.5M/2 yrs, $4M guaranteed.

--S Kendrick Lewis: UFA Chiefs; $795,000/1 yr, $100,000 guaranteed.

PLAYERS LOST

--TE Owen Daniels (released).

--S Danieal Manning (released).

--ILB Joe Mays: UFA Chiefs; $6M/2 yrs.

--DT Earl Mitchell: UFA Dolphins; $16M/4 yrs, $9M guaranteed.

--QB Matt Schaub (traded Raiders).

--ILB Darryl Sharpton: UFA Redskins; terms unknown.

--DE Antonio Smith: UFA Raiders; $9M/2 yrs.

--RB Ben Tate: UFA Browns; $4.7M/2 yrs, $1.5M SB/$2.5M guaranteed ($1.5M total potential per-game RB).

--QB T.J. Yates (traded Falcons).


CAMP PREVIEW: Indianapolis Colts

--TSX Predicts: 1st in AFC South

--2013: 11-5, 1st in AFC South

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Anderson University, Anderson, Ind., 7/23, 7/23

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .271 (32/32); non-division .525 (T10/32); overall .430 (32/32).

--Primetime Games: 5 (1 Thursday, 2 Sunday Night, 2 Monday Night)

--STRENGTH: Quarterback Andrew Luck. The Colts will only go as far as the team's third-year signal-caller will take them. Luck has guided Indy to consecutive post-season appearances and a memorable come-from-behind win over Kansas City in a wild-card game last year.

--WEAKNESS: Center. A dozen plays. That's all the game experience second-year center Khaled Holmes had last season as a rookie with Indianapolis. Now with the decision to release two-year starter Samson Satele and not re-sign center/guard Mike McGlynn, Holmes will go into the 2014 season as the team's top option at the center position.

The depth includes a pair of undrafted rookies -- former Florida center Jonathan Harrison and a local product in ex-Indiana State center FN Lutz III. Guard Hugh Thornton could move in to play the position if needed and another guard, Donald Thomas (who is recovering from injuries suffered early last season), has limited experience at center.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--G Jack Mewhort (2/59): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Donte Moncrief (3/90): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Jonathan Newsome (5/166): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Andrew Jackson (6/203): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--T Ulrick John (7/232): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--RB Ahmad Bradshaw: UFA; $855,000/1 yr.

--S Sergio Brown: UFA; terms unknown.

--CB Vontae Davis: UFA; $39M/4 yrs, $20M guaranteed.

--CB Josh Gordy: RFA tendered at $1.431M with no compensation; $1.431M/1 yr.

--P Pat McAfee: Potential UFA; $14.5M/5 yrs, $1M SB.

--K Adam Vinatieri: Potential UFA; 2 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--S Mike Adams: Not tendered as UFA by Broncos; terms unknown.

--LB D'Qwell Jackson: FA Browns; $22/4 yrs, $11M guaranteed.

--DE Arthur Jones: UFA Ravens; $33M/5 yrs, $5.5M SB/$16M guaranteed.

--G Lance Louis: FA; $1.475M/2 yrs, $25,000 SB.

--LB Aaron Morgan: FA; $1.23M/2 yrs.

--WR Hakeem Nicks: UFA Giants; $3.975M/1 yr, $2M SB/$375,000 RB.

PLAYERS LOST

--ILB Pat Angerer (not tendered as UFA).

--S Antoine Bethea: UFA 49ers; $26M/4 yrs.

--ILB Kavell Conner: UFA Chargers; 3 yrs, terms unknown.

--NT Aubrayo Franklin (not tendered as UFA).

--WR Darrius Heyward-Bey: UFA Steelers; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--G/T Jeff Linkenbach: UFA Chiefs; terms unknown.

--G Mike McGlynn: UFA Redskins; terms unknown.

--C Samson Satele (released).


CAMP PREVIEW: Jacksonville Jaguars

--TSX Predicts: 4th in AFC South

--2013: 4-12, 3rd in AFC South

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Florida Blue Health & Wellness Practice Fields, Jacksonville, Fla., 7/21, 7/24

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .417 (T25/32); non-division .475 (T22/32); overall .453 (29/32).

--Primetime Games: 1 (1 Thursday)

--STRENGTH: Defensive line. The last two years, the Jaguars have been at or near the bottom of the league in sacks or putting any pressure on opposing quarterbacks. That doesn't appear to be the case anymore. The free-agent signing of players like Chris Clemons, Ziggy Hood and Red Bryant brings instant credibility to this unit.

Andre Branch had a banner second-half season a year ago and if that continues, he could produce double-digit sack totals. For the Jaguars to be able to cut veteran defensive end Jason Babin shows that they have confidence in the remaining group of players along the line.

--WEAKNESS: Interior offensive line. The current starters at center and right guard were backup players a year ago with a combined five starts at different positions. Center Mike Brewster started three games at left guard, while current right guard starter Jacques McClendon was a two-game starter at left guard. So neither has started a game at his current position.

The backup players are a pair of mid-to-late-round draft picks last month. Brandon Linder was taken in the third round (No. 93 overall) to challenge McClendon at the right guard spot while Luke Bowanko was a sixth-round selection (No. 205 overall) who was the starting center at the University of Virginia. They may be starters in the future, but neither look ready to make a legitimate run at a starting job in 2014.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--QB Blake Bortles (1/3): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Marqise Lee (2/39): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Allen Robinson (2/61): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--G Brandon Linder (3/93): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Aaron Colvin (4/114): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Telvin Smith (5/144): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--DE Chris Smith (5/159): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--C Luke Bowanko (6/205): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--RB Storm Johnson (7/222): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--CB Will Blackmon: UFA; 2 yrs, terms unknown.

--TE Clay Harbor: Potential UFA; $3M/2 yrs, $1.35M SB.

--QB Chad Henne: Potential UFA; $8M/2 yrs, $4.5M guaranteed.

--DT Sen'Derrick Marks: Potential UFA; $18M/4 yrs, $800,000 SB/$4.8M guaranteed.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--G Zane Beadles: UFA Broncos; $30M/5 yrs, $12.5M guaranteed.

--DE Red Bryant: FA Seahawks; 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--DE Chris Clemons: FA Seahawks; terms unknown.

--RB Toby Gerhart: UFA Vikings; $10.5M/3 yrs, $4.5M guaranteed.

--DE Ziggy Hood: UFA Steelers; terms unknown.

--LB Dekoda Watson: UFA Buccaneers; terms unknown.

PLAYERS LOST

--LB Russell Allen (released/failed physical).

--DE Jason Babin (released).

--DT Brandon Deaderick: Not tendered as UFA/Saints; terms unknown.

--RB Justin Forsett (released).

--QB Blaine Gabbert (traded 49ers).

--RB Maurice Jones-Drew: UFA Raiders; $7.5M/3 yrs, $1.2M guaranteed RB.

--C Brad Meester (retired).

--G Uche Nwaneri (released).

--G Will Rackley (released).


CAMP PREVIEW: Tennessee Titans

--TSX Predicts: 3rd in AFC South

--2013: 7-9, 2nd in AFC South

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Saint Thomas Sports Park, Nashville, Tenn., 7/25, 7/25

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .354 (31/32); non-division .488 (T18/32); overall .438 (31/32).

--Primetime Games: 2 (1 Thursday, 1 Monday Night)

--STRENGTH: Offensive Line. The Titans have gone to great lengths to rebuild an offensive line eroded over the past several years, and this unit -- on paper at least -- would appear to be the strength of the team.

The Titans signed left guard Andy Levitre last year as a free agent and drafted right guard Chance Warmack and center Brian Schwenke. This year they added free-agent right tackle Michael Oher and took future left tackle Taylor Lewan in the first round as an eventual successor to stalwart Michael Roos, who is entering the final year of his contract.

--WEAKNESS: Wide receiver. There is talent at the top of the depth chart with shifty Kendall Wright in the slot, and steady Nate Washington on the outside. Justin Hunter also has big-play potential. But after that, there are just unproven names.

Michael Preston, a former practice-squad player, has 10 career catches. Marc Mariani, a former Pro-Bowl pick as a return man, has just five catches and has spent the past two seasons on injured reserve. The Titans added Brian Robiskie, who failed to produce elsewhere. So quarterback Jake Locker hopes to find a couple more reliable receivers to help him in Ken Whisenhunt's new offensive system.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

UNSIGNED DRAFT CHOICES (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--T Taylor Lewan (1/11).

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--RB Bishop Sankey (2/54): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--NT DaQuan Jones (4/112): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Marqueston Huff (4/122): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Avery Williamson (5/151): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--QB Zach Mettenberger (6/178): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--RB Jackie Battle: Potential UFA; $855,000/1 yr.

--DT Antonio Johnson: UFA; terms unknown.

--WR/KR Marc Mariani: UFA; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--DE Ropati Pitoitua: Potential UFA; $9.6M/3 yrs, $2.175M SB.

--S Bernard Pollard: Potential UFA; $6.3M/2 yrs, $850,000 SB.

--C/G Chris Spencer: UFA; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--RB Leon Washington: UFA; 1 yr, terms unknown.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--TE Dorin Dickerson: Not tendered as RFA by Lions; terms unknown.

--WR Dexter McCluster: UFA Chiefs; $12M/3 yrs, $4.5M guaranteed.

--OT Michael Oher: UFA Ravens; $20M/4 yrs, $4M SB/$9.35M guaranteed.

--LB Shaun Phillips: UFA Broncos; $6M/2 yrs.

--QB Charlie Whitehurst: UFA Chargers; $4.25M/2 yrs, $1M SB/$2M guaranteed.

--LB Wesley Woodyard: UFA Broncos; $16M/4 yrs.

PLAYERS LOST

--K Rob Bironas (released).

--WR Kenny Britt: UFA Rams; $1.4M/1 yr, $550,000 guaranteed.

--QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (released).

--RB Chris Johnson (released).

--FB Quinn Johnson (released).

--T David Stewart (failed physical).

--CB Alterraun Verner: UFA Buccaneers; $26.5M/4 yrs, $14M guaranteed.

 

[CNOTES]

AFC North Preview: Bengals best of rugged bunch

Rookie quarterback Johnny Manziel may be causing commotion selling jerseys, but The Sports Xchange isn't buying into his Cleveland Browns, picked to repeat in last place of the AFC North.

That other Ohio team in Cincinnati is the choice here to outbattle the Pittsburgh Steelers for the division title ahead of the Baltimore Ravens.

Here is a closer look at NFC North teams as training camp begins:

CAMP PREVIEW: Baltimore Ravens

--TSX Predicts: 3rd in AFC North

--2013: 8-8, Tied for 2nd in AFC North

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report):Under Armour Performance Center, Owings Mills, Md., 7/16, 7/23

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .479 (T17/32); non-division .450 (T28/32); overall .461 (28/32).

--Primetime Games: 3 (1 Thursday, 1 Sunday Night, 1 Monday)

--STRENGTH: Outside linebacker. With bookend Pro Bowl outside linebackers in Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil, this is obviously a strong part of the team. They combined for 19.5 sacks last season. Healthy this season, both Suggs and Dumervil appear ready for bigger things this season.

--WEAKNESS: Offensive tackle. Right offensive tackle is an unproven spot where 2013 fifth-round draft pick Rick Wagner is currently the starter. He is competing with Ryan Jensen for the starting job.

Wagner struggled in limited action last season and allowed three sacks to Denver Broncos outside linebacker Shaun Phillips in his first NFL game. If Wagner proves he's capable of holding down the position, the Ravens won't have to seek a veteran blocker to upgrade the position or shift Kelechi Osemele from left guard.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--LB C.J. Mosley (1/17): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--DT Timmy Jernigan (2/48): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--S Terrence Brooks (3/79): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--TE Crockett Gillmore (3/99): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--DE Brent Urban (4/134): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--RB Lorenzo Taliaferro (4/138): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--C/G John Urschel (5/175): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--QB Keith Wenning (6/194): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Michael Campanaro (7/218): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--NT Terrence Cody: UFA; $730,000/1 yr.

--WR Jacoby Jones: UFA; $14M/4 yrs, $4.5M SB.

--T Eugene Monroe: UFA; $37.5M/5 yrs, $19M guaranteed.

--TE Dennis Pitta: Potential UFA; $32M/5 yrs, $16M guaranteed.

--LB Daryl Smith: UFA; $16.1M/4 yrs.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--TE Owen Daniels: FA Texans; $1M/1 yr.

--RB Justin Forsett: FA Jaguars; $730,000/1 yr.

--G Will Rackley: FA Jaguars; terms unknown.

--CB Aaron Ross: Not tendered as UFA by Giants; terms unknown.

--WR Steve Smith: FA Panthers; $10.5M/3 yrs, $3.5M SB.

--S Darian Stewart: UFA Rams; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--C/G Jeremy Zuttah (trade Buccaneers).

PLAYERS LOST

--TE Dallas Clark: Not tendered as UFA/retired.

--TE Ed Dickson: UFA Panthers; $795,000/1 yr, $65,000 SB.

--CB Corey Graham: UFA Bills; $16M/4 yrs.

--S James Ihedigbo: UFA Lions; 2 yrs, terms unknown.

--DE Arthur Jones: UFA Colts; $33M/5 yrs, $5.5M SB/$16M guaranteed.

--FB Vonta Leach (released).

--LB Jameel McClain (released).

--OT Michael Oher: UFA Titans; $20M/4 yrs, $4M SB/$9.35M guaranteed.


CAMP PREVIW: Cincinnati Bengals

--TSX Predicts: 1st in AFC North

--2013: 111-5, 1st in AFC North

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio, 7/21, 7/23

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .417 (T25/32); non-division .500 (T16/32); overall .469 (T23/32).

---Primetime Games: 3 (1 Thursday, 1 Sunday Night, 1 Monday)

--STRENGTH: Coordinator Hue Jackson and the offense. The players have responded to the new energy in the offensive room as Jackson replaced Jay Gruden, now the head coach in Washington.

Players are energized and the numbers of Jackson's success running the offense in Oakland (top 10 both years he was on staff) back up his attitude.

The offense needed an identity and mentality to stand behind and the physicality of the running game has the linemen smiling and Giovani Bernard featured. Both of those are great for the hopes of the Bengals.

--WEAKNESS: Tight end. At this point last year, tight end was supposed to be the game-changing strength of the team with Jermaine Gresham coming off his second straight Pro Bowl and a first-round pick dedicated to Tyler Eifert.

The two-tight end set was expected to power the offense to the next level. Both played well and combined for 85 receptions, but two injuries forced them out of the offseason program. Expectations are both will be healthy for training camp, but lingering injuries cause concern.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--CB Darqueze Dennard (1/24): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--RB Jeremy Hill (2/55): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--DE Will Clarke (3/88): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--C Russell Bodine (4/111): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--QB A.J. McCarron (5/164): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Marquis Flowers (6/212): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR James Wright (7/239): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Lavelle Westbrooks (7/252): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--S Taylor Mays: UFA; terms unknown.

--G Mike Pollak: Potential UFA; 3 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR/KR Brandon Tate: Potential UFA; terms unknown.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--QB Jason Campbell: FA Browns; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--S Danieal Manning: FA Texans; terms unknown.

--OT Marshall Newhouse: UFA Packers; terms unknown.

PLAYERS LOST

--T Anthony Collins: UFA Buccaneers; $30M/5 yrs, $15M guaranteed.

--C Kyle Cook (released).

--CB Brandon Ghee: UFA Chargers; $1.65M/2 yrs.

--LB James Harrison (released).

--WR Andrew Hawkins: RFA Browns (tendered at $1.431M with no compensation); Bengals didn't match offer of $13.6M/4 yrs.

--QB Josh Johnson (released).

--DE Michael Johnson: UFA Buccaneers; $43.75M/5 yrs, $16M guaranteed.


CAMP PREVIEW: Cleveland Browns

--TSX Predicts: 4th in AFC North

--2013: 4-12, 4th in AFC North

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Cleveland Browns Training Facility, Berea, Ohio, 7/23, 7/25

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .563 (T8/32); non-division .406 (32/32); overall .465 (T26/32).

--Primetime Games: 1 (1 Thursday)

--STRENGTH: Defense. Coach Mike Pettine, as a former defensive coordinator, is trying to model his team after the Seahawks and 49ers. He is expecting the defense to carry the load this season, particularly the pass rushing linebackers -- Paul Kruger, Barkevious Mingo and Jabaal Sheard, who at times will line up as an end.

Sheard led the Browns in sacks each of his first three years in the league. He is excited about the season ahead because he is playing the role of Mario Williams of the Buffalo Bills. Pettine was the Bills defensive coordinator last year.

--WEAKNESS: Wide receiver. Josh Gordon's season is up in the despite reports that his latest July 4 holiday DUI arrest may have charges reduced based on blood alcohol being .09 against legal limit of .08. But he will surely be suspended for multiple offenses, it is just a matter of how long he will be absent. League is expected to rule within two weeks on issues for reportedly testing positive for marijuana as well as the DUI. Gordon caught 87 passes last year and led the NFL with 1,646 receiving yards last year.

Davone Bess (42 catches) and Greg Little (41) were cut in the offseason. They were the top three pass-catchers among Browns wide receivers in 2013. What is left are these candidates: Miles Austin, Nate Burleson, Andrew Hawkins and Anthony Armstrong. The problem is those four players caught a combined 75 passes last year; Armstrong, 31 years old, was out of football. Austin caught 24 passes and Hawkins only 12.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

UNSIGNED DRAFT CHOICES (RD/Overall PICK)

--CB Justin Gilbert (1/8).

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--QB Johnny Manziel (1/22): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--G Joel Bitonio (2/35): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Christian Kirksey (3/71): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--RB Terrance West (3/94): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Pierre Desir (4/127): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--K Billy Cundiff: Potential UFA; $1.02M/1 yr.

--C Alex Mack: Transition FA (Browns matched Jaguars offer); $42M/5 yrs, $26M guaranteed.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--WR Anthony Armstrong: FA; terms unknown.

--WR Miles Austin: FA Cowboys; terms unknown.

--CB Aaron Berry: UFA Jets; terms unknown.

--WR Nate Burleson: FA Lions; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--LB Karlos Dansby: UFA Cardinals; $24M/4 yrs, $14M guaranteed.

--TE Jim Dray: UFA Cardinals; $5.625M/3 yrs, $2.25M guaranteed.

--WR Andrew Hawkins: RFA Bengals (tendered at $1.431M with no compensation); Bengals didn't match offer of $13.6M/4 yrs.

--T/G Paul McQuistan: UFA Seahawks; $3M/2 yrs, $750,000 guaranteed.

--RB Ben Tate: UFA Texans; $4.7M/2 yrs, $1.5M SB/$2.5M guaranteed ($1.5M total potential per-game RB).

--S Donte Whitner: UFA 49ers; $28M/4 yrs, $13M guaranteed.

PLAYERS LOST

--WR Davone Bess (released).

--QB Jason Campbell (released).

--LB Quentin Groves (released).

--LB D'Qwell Jackson (released).

--G Shawn Lauvao: UFA Redskins; $17M/4 yrs.

--RB Willis McGahee (not tendered as UFA).

--S T.J. Ward: UFA Broncos; $22.5M/4 yrs, $14M guaranteed.

--QB Brandon Weeden (released).


CAMP PREVIEW: Pittsburgh Steelers

--TSX Predicts: 2nd in AFC North

--2013: 8-8, tied for 2nd in AFC North

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Saint Vincent College, Latrobe, Pa., 7/25, 7/25

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .479 (T17/32); non-division .463 (27/32); overall .469 (T23/32).

Primetime Games: 5 (1 Thursday, 2 Sunday Night, 2 Monday)

--STRENGTH: Quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger is coming off one of his best seasons. He passed for 4,261 yards and 28 touchdowns, and was most productive down the stretch when the coaches committed to the no-huddle offense. Expect similar or better production this season if the no-huddle is implemented from the start.

The Steelers have leaned on Roethlisberger and the passing game for the last few years because the running game stalled. New line coach Mike Munchak was hired to fix the problems in the running game. If he does, Roethlisberger can have an even better 2014 because the play-action threat would return.

--WEAKNESS: Cornerback. The Steelers' issues at cornerback were hidden for years because of a strong pass rush. The lack of a pass rush the past few years has exposed their corners.

Ike Taylor had his worst season in 2013 and he is not likely to improve at age 34. Cortez Allen did just OK as the other starter. William Gay, the nickel back who returned after a brief stay with Arizona, probably played the best of the group last season.

Pittsburgh did little to help the position, signing 5-foot-9 Brice McCain after he was cut by the Texans and drafting Shaquille Richardson in the fifth round.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--LB Ryan Shazier (1/15): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--DE Stephon Tuitt (2/46): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--RB/WR Dri Archer (3/97): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Martavis Bryant (4/118): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Shaquille Richardson (5/157): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--T/G Wesley Johnson (5/173): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Jordan Zumwalt (6/192): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--NT Daniel McCullers (6/215): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--TE Rob Blanchflower (7/230): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--S Will Allen: Potential UFA; terms unknown.

--LS Greg Warren: UFA; terms unknown.

--LB Jason Worilds: Transition FA; $9.754M/1 yr.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--RB LeGarrette Blount: UFA Patriots; $3.85M/2 yrs, $950,000 SB.

--WR Darrius Heyward-Bey: UFA Colts; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--S Mike Mitchell: UFA Panthers; terms unknown.

--WR Lance Moore: FA Saints; $3M/2 yrs.

--P Adam Podlesh: FA Bears; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--DT Cam Thomas: UFA Chargers; $4M/2 yrs, $1M SB.

PLAYERS LOST

--S Ryan Clark: UFA Redskins; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--WR Jerricho Cotchery: UFA Panthers; 2 yrs, $2.25M SB.

--RB Jonathan Dwyer: UFA Cardinals; $795,000/1 yr, $65,000 SB.

--LB Larry Foote (released).

--DE Ziggy Hood: UFA Jaguars; terms unknown.

--TE David Johnson: UFA Chargers; 2 yrs, terms unknown.

--DE Brett Keisel (not tendered as UFA).

--WR Emmanuel Sanders: UFA Broncos; $15M/3 yrs, $6M guaranteed.

--LB LaMarr Woodley (released/post-June 1 designation)

 

[CNOTES]

AFC East Preview: No surprise, Pats favored

As long as Bill Belichick is coaching a healthy quarterback Tom Brady, the New England Patriots will probably be favored to win the AFC East. That is the bold prediction by The Sports Xchange football staff in this training camp preview.

The New York Jets are pegged to move up to No. 2 and Miami is rated last, but perhaps NFL/TV execs may know otherwise: the Dolphins will have five games on prime time, as many as the Patriots.

Well, not counting the postseason.

Here is a closer look at AFC East teams as camps begin (teams listed alphabetically):


CAMP PREVIEW: Buffalo Bills

--TSX Predicts: 3rd in AFC East

--2013: 6-10, 4th in AFC East

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): St. John Fisher College, Pittsford, N.Y., 7/16, 7/19

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .583 (T6/32); non-division .450 (T28/32); overall .500 (14/32).

--Primetime Games: 1 (1 Thursday)

--STRENGTH: Defensive line. The Bills have three Pro Bowl players up front -- tackles Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams, and end Mario Williams, plus end Jerry Hughes. While setting a team record with 57 sacks in 2013, those four players combined for 41 sacks, including a team-high 13 by Mario Williams. However, Dareus has been challenged by off-field issues this year.

The Bills can also bring in players such as veterans Alan Branch and Manny Lawson, and they also like young players Stefan Charles and Corbin Bryant, both of whom saw playing time at the end of last season. Under new coordinator Jim Schwartz, the Bills might not blitz as much as they did when Mike Pettine was scheming the defense, but if the front four can continue to generate pressure without help, Schwartz won't have to send linebackers or safeties.

--WEAKNESS: Quarterback. Buffalo used the 16th pick of the first round in the 2013 draft to select EJ Manuel, and they made him the starter at the beginning of training camp. Once veteran Kevin Kolb was lost for the year due to a concussion, there was never a doubt who the starting quarterback would be on opening day.

But Manuel couldn't stay healthy and he played only 10 games due to separate knee injuries. So nobody is sure whether he is truly the Bills' quarterback of the future. And if he gets hurt again, the Bills have one of the worst backup situations in the league -- journeyman Thad Lewis, who won two starts last season, is No. 2, and undrafted second-year man Jeff Tuel is battling another journeyman, Dennis Dixon, for third string.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--WR Sammy Watkins (1/4): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--T Cyrus Kouandjio (2/44): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Preston Brown (3/73): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Ross Cockrell (4/109): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--G Cyril Richardson (5/153): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Randell Johnson (7/221): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--T Seantrel Henderson (7/237): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--K Dan Carpenter: UFA; 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--TE Scott Chandler; UFA; terms unknown.

--P Brian Moorman: Potential UFA; $955,000/1 yr.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--WR Ramses Barden: FA; $1.475M/2 yrs.

--RB Bryce Brown (trade Eagles).

--RB Anthony Dixon: UFA 49ers; $3.5M/3 yrs, $750,000 SB.

--QB Dennis Dixon: FA; $1.475M/2 yrs.

--CB Corey Graham: UFA Ravens; $16M/4 yrs.

--LB Keith Rivers: UFA Giants; $4.05M/2 yrs, $1M SB.

--LB Brandon Spikes: UFA Patriots; $3M/1 yr, $900,000 SB.

--G Chris Williams: UFA Rams; $13.5M/4 yrs, $5.5M guaranteed.

--WR Mike Williams (trade Buccaneers).

PLAYERS LOST

--S Jairus Byrd: UFA Saints; $54M/6 yrs, $11M SB/$27.9M guaranteed.

--DE Alex Carrington: UFA Rams; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--WR Stevie Johnson (traded 49ers).


CAMP PREVIEW: Miami Dolphins

--TSX Predicts: 4th in AFC East

--2013: 8-8, Tied for 2nd in AFC East

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Doctors Hospital Training Facility, Davie, Fla., 7/24, 7/24

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .542 (T11/32); non-division .488 (T18/32); overall .508 (12/32).

--Primetime Games: 5 (1 Thursday, 3 Sunday night, 1 Monday)

--STRENGTH: Wide receiver. The Dolphins might not send a wide receiver to the Pro Bowl, but they have quality and they're deep. Among starters Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson they have proven veterans. Behind them are rookie Jarvis Landry and youngsters Rishard Matthews and Armon Binns.

A lot of the wide receivers' success will depend on quarterback Ryan Tannehill and the offensive line's ability to protect Tannehill. But as a group, the wide receivers are grown men.

--WEAKNESS: Right tackle. Rookie right tackle Ja'Wuan James gets the nod because his position is so important to a unit that allowed a NFL-worst 58 sacks last season. James, Miami's first-round pick from Tennessee, was decent during OTAs, but he's still a rookie playing a pivotal position.

Other positions in the running for weakest were right guard (Dallas Thomas) and left guard (Shelley Smith), both jobs held by players who have never been fulltime starters. But considering James will have to take on a growing number of fierce pass rushers, he's in the spotlight for now.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--T Ja'Wuan James (1/19): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Jarvis Landry (2/63): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--G Billy Turner (3/67); 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Walt Aikens (4/125); 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--TE Arthur Lynch (5/155): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Jordan Tripp (5/171): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Matt Hazel (6/190): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--DE Terrence Fede (7/234): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--CB Brent Grimes: Potential UFA; $32.025M/4 yrs, $6M SB/$16.95M guaranteed.

--DT Randy Starks: UFA; $10M/2 yrs.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--T Branden Albert: UFA Chiefs; $46M/5 yrs, $8.5M SB/$25M guaranteed.

--G Daryn Colledge: FA Cardinals; terms unknown.

--S Louis Delmas: FA Lions; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--CB Cortland Finnegan: FA Rams; $11M/2 yrs.


CAMP PREVIEW: New England Patriots

--TSX Predicts: 1st in AFC East

--2013: 12-4, 1st in AFC East

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass., 7/20, 7/23

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .583 (T6/32); non-division .450 (T28/32); overall .500 (14/32).

--Primetime Games: 5 (1 Thursday, 3 Sunday night, 1 Monday)

--STRENGTH: Quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick. While it may be overly simplistic and obvious, New England continues to be driven to success by its quarterback and coach. Those are the two most important aspects for an NFL team, and New England still ranks among the elite teams in the league despite the duo's 14-year run together.

Patriots fans will hope that New England can be a top-five unit on both offense and defense, buoyed by Rob Gronkowski in the passing attack and Darrelle Revis on defense. Maybe, maybe not, but Belichick and Brady have proven together they can lead the way to an AFC East title --five years in a row. The foundation for where the Patriots will go this season remains with the man wearing No. 12 and the man in the gray hoodie directing it all.

--WEAKNESS: Strong safety. While the Patriots have lacked a true strong safety since the departure of Rodney Harrison, there are questions as to whether New England has two starting caliber safeties of any style for 2014. Devin McCourty returns at free safety, while second-year former third-round pick Duron Harmon is penciled in at the other spot.

Harmon started three games as a rookie a year ago filling in for Steve Gregory, who started 23 games in his two years in New England before being cut this spring. Harmon impressed head coach Bill Belichick with his communication skills and football IQ last fall, but if he's not ready to be a full-time, productive starter there will be a hole in the back end. Patrick Chung returns for depth and special teams and second-year cornerback Logan Ryan may get reps at safety.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--DT Dominique Easley (1/29): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--QB Jimmy Garoppolo (2/62): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--C Bryan Stork (4/105): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--RB James White (4/130): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--T Cameron Fleming (4/140): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--G Jon Halapio (6/179): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--DE Zach Moore (6/198): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Jemea Thomas (6/206): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Jeremy Gallon (7/244): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--WR Julian Edelman: UFA; $17M/4 yrs, $8M guaranteed.

--TE Michael Hoomanawanui: Potential UFA; 2 yr, terms unknown.

--C Ryan Wendell: UFA; 2 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--LB James Anderson: Not tendered as UFA by Bears; terms unknown.

--CB Brandon Browner: UFA Seahawks; $15.15M/3 yrs, $1M guaranteed.

--S Patrick Chung: FA Eagles; terms unknown.

--WR Brandon LaFell: UFA Panthers; 3 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Darrelle Revis: FA Buccaneers; $32M/2 yrs, $10M SB/$12M RB 2015.

--DE Will Smith: FA Saints; terms unknown.

PLAYERS LOST

--RB LeGarrette Blount: UFA Steelers; $3.85M/2 yrs, $950,000 SB.

--NT Isaac Sopoaga (released).

--LB Brandon Spikes: UFA Bills; $3M/1 yr, $900,000 SB.

--CB Aqib Talib: UFA Broncos; $57M/6 yrs, $5M SB/$26M guaranteed.


CAMP PREVIEW: New York Jets

--TSX Predicts: 2nd in AFC East

--2013: 8-8, Tied for 2nd in AFC East

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): SUNY Cortland, Cortland, N.Y., 7/22, 7/23

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .583 (T6/32); non-division .450 (T28/32); overall .500 (14/32).

--Primetime Games: 3 (1 Thursday, 2 Monday)

--STRENGTH: Defensive line. Few teams in the league have a 1-2 punch like Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson, who can wreak havoc with opposing running backs and quarterbacks. Their dominance creates a trickle down effect for the rest of an otherwise average defense.

--WEAKNESS: Guard. The Jets barely managed last season with workmanlike efforts from rookie left guard Brian Winters and veteran right guard Willie Colon, which was a good thing, since their backups were annual tease Vladimir Ducasse and journeyman Caleb Schlauderaff.

But Colon was absent this spring due to a torn biceps suffered in the season finale and a knee injury during workouts. This magnifies the Jets' lack of depth at the position. Will Campbell and Oday Aboushi, a pair of 2013 draftees who were inactive for every game last season, are getting extended reps along with fourth-round pick Dakota Dozier.

Winters is also getting time at right guard this spring, which might be an indication of a lack of faith in alternatives and concern about Colon's ability to be full strength in September.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--S Calvin Pryor (1/18): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--TE Jace Amaro (2/49): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Jalen Saunders (4/104): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Shaquelle Evans (4/115): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--G Dakota Dozier (4/137): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Jeremiah George (5/154): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Brandon Dixon (6/195): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Quincy Enunwa (6/209): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Ikemefuna Enemkpali (6/210): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--QB Tajh Boyd (6/213): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Trevor Reilly (7/233): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--G Willie Colon: UFA; $2M/1 yr.

--TE Jeff Cumberland: Potential UFA; $5.7M/3 yrs, $1M RB 2014.

--K Nick Folk: Franchise FA; $12M/4 yrs, $2.1M RB.

--LB Calvin Pace: UFA; $5M/2 yrs, $1M RB.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--WR Eric Decker: UFA Broncos; $36.25M/5 yrs, $7.5M SB/$15M guaranteed.

--CB Ras-I Dowling: FA; $1.23M/2 yrs.

--WR Jacoby Ford: UFA Raiders; $740,000/1 yr, $65,000 SB.

--T Breno Giacomini: UFA Seahawks; $18M/4 yrs, $2.5M SB/$7M guaranteed.

--RB Chris Johnson: FA Titans; $8M/2 yrs.

--CB Dimitri Patterson: FA Dolphins; $3M/1 yr, $1M SB.

--QB Michael Vick: UFA Eagles; $4M guaranteed/1 yr, $2M SB.

PLAYERS LOST

--CB Aaron Berry: UFA Browns; terms unknown.

--CB Antonio Cromartie (released).

--G Vladimir Ducasse: UFA Vikings; $795,000/1 yr, $65,000 SB.

--WR Santonio Holmes (released).

--T Austin Howard: UFA Raiders; $30M/5 yrs, $15M guaranteed.

--S Ed Reed (not tendered as UFA).

--QB Mark Sanchez (released).

--TE Kellen Winslow (not tendered as UFA).

 

[CNOTES]

Preseason Report - NFC

July 25, 2014


Coaches · AFC · NFC

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys
Head Coach: Jason Garrett

Quarterback Rotation: Tony Romo, Brandon Weeden, Caleb Hanie, Dustin Vaughan (Rookie West Texas A&M)

Garrett and the Cowboys have not fared well in the preseason going 4-8 against the spread in their last 12 regular preseason games. Plus a total trend to watch for this preseason is that the Cowboys seem to just want to go thru the motions in their final game as the UNDER has gone 3-1 the last four years.

New York Giants

Head Coach: Tom Coughlin
Quarterback Rotation: Eli Manning, Ryan Nassib, Curtis Painter

A solid money-making trend has shown up for the Giants as of late as Tom Coughlin in the past four years has seemed to put no effort in the Giants dress rehearsal game as the Giants are 0-4 both straight up and against the spread. This year’s dress rehearsal game is on Aug. 22 against the Jets.

Philadelphia Eagles

Head Coach: Chip Kelly
Quarterback Rotation: Nick Foles, Mark Sanchez, Matt Barkley, G. J. Kinne

There is not too much to look at for any preseason trends for head coach Chip Kelly. In his first year the Eagles went 2-2 both straight up and against the spread. However, the OVER went 3-1 in those games, which is something to keep an eye on as the Eagles preseason begins. Also, one thing that carried over from the Reid era is that the Eagles again lost their first preseason game which makes them 1-8 against the spread in the last nine opening preseason games. Philadelphia’s preseason opener this year is on Aug. 8 at Chicago.

Washington Redskins

Head Coach: Jay Gruden
Quarterback Rotation: Robert Griffin III, Kirk Cousins, Colt McCoy

Some solid trends going for the Redskins that Jay Gruden may went to build on. Washington went a perfect 4-0 both straight up and against the spread in last year’s preseason games, and they also have been money in their dress rehearsal games the last four years going 4-0 against the spread. This year’s dress rehearsal game for the Redskins is on Aug. 23 at Baltimore.

NFC North

Chicago Bears

Head Coach: Marc Trestman
Quarterback Rotation: Jay Cutler, Jimmy Clausen, Jordan Palmer, David Fales (Rookie San Jose State)

In Trestman’s first year as head coach of the Bears – his prior offensive coordinator experience paid off as three of the four Bears games saw the OVER connect. In their dress rehearsal game against the Raiders the Bears scored a whopping 34 points. So let’s look for more wide-open play from Chicago as we head into this year’s preseason.

Detroit Lions

Head Coach: Jim Caldwell
Quarterback Rotation: Matthew Stafford, Kellen Moore, Dan Orlovsky, James Franklin (Rookie Missouri)

In the past two preseasons the Lions saw the OVER go a money making 6-2 – something I feel will continue with Caldwell now the Lions new head coach. Let’s not forget Caldwell tutored a pair of quality quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Joe Flacco – So offense is his forte. Just keep an eye on how the Lions come out offensively in their early preseason games.

Green Bay Packers

Head Coach: Mike McCarthy
Quarterback Rotation: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Flynn, Scott Tolzien, Chase Rettig (Rookie Boston College)

Mike McCarthy and the Packers used to have a great preseason trend where the OVER hit at a super high rate – however the oddsmakers have finally caught up with this trend and now overvalue the OVER posted in the Green Bay games – resulting in the UNDER going 6-2 in the past two preseasons. So I would recommend that you take advantage of these high posted totals and lean towards the UNDER going forward. Plus another trend to watch this preseason is that the Packers have lost their opening preseason game the past four years. This year’s opener is on Aug. 9 at Tennessee.

Minnesota Vikings

Head Coach: Mike Zimmer
Quarterback Rotation: Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, Teddy Bridgewater (Rookie Louisville)

With Mike Zimmer taking over as coach of the Vikings, look for defense to be the forefront this preseason as Zimmer has been a defensive coordinator the last 14 years in the NFL. In his last two seasons as coordinator of the Bengals the UNDER was the easy winner in the Bengals dress rehearsal games. Look for this to continue this year in the Vikings dress rehearsal game on Aug. 23 at Kansas City.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

Head Coach: Mike Smith
Quarterback Rotation: Matt Ryan, T.J. Yates, Sean Renfree, Jeff Mathews (Rookie Cornell)

One of my favorite preseason plays goes here on the Falcons as in their 'dress rehearsal' game. In the last nine years, the Falcons have gone 8-1 outscoring their opposition 203-88 not counting the 2011 abnormal preseason. This year’s 'dress rehearsal' game for the Falcons will be on Aug. 23 when they play Tennessee at home. After last year’s down season I really look for the Falcons to be very motivated coming into this dress rehearsal game and use it as a starting point to get the season on a winning note. However if we take a look at the whole body of work for the Falcons over the past two preseasons we will see that they have lost seven of their eight preseason games played – with their only win coming in the above mentioned dress rehearsal game. And one last thing about Atlanta here is that in their first preseason game the past three years they have been dominated losing all while allowing 34, 31, and 28 points, which also made all three of these games fly OVER the posted total.

Carolina Panthers

Head Coach: Ron Rivera
Quarterback Rotation: Cam Newton (Injury- Ankle), Derek Anderson, Matt Blanchard, Joe Webb

A couple of trends have started to develop with Rivera settling in as head coach in the preseason for the Panthers. First off Rivera seems to want to look good in his dress rehearsal game going 2-0 the past two years. While in the fourth and final game, Rivera seems to just want to get this game over with as the UNDER has been the winning play the past two years. Both of these preseason finales have been against the Steelers which they finish up again on Aug. 28.

New Orleans Saints

Head Coach: Sean Payton
Quarterback Rotation: Drew Brees, Ryan Griffin, Luke McCown, Logan Kilgore (Rookie Middle Tennessee State)

A strong preseason trend we can follow with the Saints as their high octane offense sure gears up as the preseason progresses. In the past four seasons the Saints have seen the OVER go a perfect 8-0 in their last two preseason games (Week 3 & 4) of the year with 51, 57, 60, 41, 51, 61, 54, and 45 points scored. This year the Saints finish up with Indianapolis on Aug. 23 and Baltimore on Aug. 28.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Head Coach: Lovie Smith
Quarterback Rotation: Mike Glennon, Mike Kafka, Josh McCown, Alex Tanney

In his last two years in Chicago Lovie Smith had winning preseasons going 6-2 against the spread. I can see him wanting to get a winning attitude right off the bat in Tampa Bay – so let’s look for the Buccaneers to be a team to bet this preseason. Plus the Buccaneers used to be one of my favorite trend plays in the preseason as they were 6-2 against the spread in their first preseason game – this might be something to look into as Smith will want to win his first game as the Buccaneers head coach, especially in front of the home crowd on Aug. 8th against the Eagles.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

Head Coach: Bruce Arians
Quarterback Rotation: Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, Ryan Lindley, Logan Thomas (Rookie Virginia Tech)

Only one year of stats for Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians for us to look at, however Arizona went 3-1 both straight up and against the spread in its four preseasons games from a year ago, with the UNDER also going 3-1. Something to keep an eye out for as this year’s preseason begins.

San Francisco 49ers

Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh
Quarterback Rotation: Colin Kaepernick, Josh Johnson, Blaine Gabbert, McLeod Bethel-Thompson, Kory Faulkner (Rookie Southern Illinois)

Whether its preseason or regular season games, Jim Harbaugh wants to win every time his team takes the field. This sure has been a solid money maker the last two preseasons as the 49ers have gone 6-2 both straight up and against the spread. It is also important to post here that in this same timeframe San Francisco has seen the UNDER be the right play on both of their first two preseason games the past two years – while just the opposite is true as in their dress rehearsal game and final preseason game the OVER was the winning play. Making for a solid 8-0 run for us to look forward to this year.

Seattle Seahawks

Head Coach: Pete Carroll
Quarterback Rotation: Russell Wilson, Tarvaris Jackson, Terrelle Pryor, B. J. Daniels

Usually we like to fade the Super Bowl champions in the proceeding preseason – as how can a team be up for these early meaningless games. However if there is one exception it’s sure the Seahawks under Carroll – as Seattle is a money making 11-1 both straight up and against the spread the past three years. Top rated preseason trend in effect here especially when you throw in this year’s quarterback rotation.

St. Louis Rams

Head Coach: Jeff Fisher
Quarterback Rotation: Sam Bradford, Shaun Hill, Garrett Gilbert (Rookie SMU), Austin Davis

In his return to coaching Jeff Fisher has already shown us a trend that can help make us some money this preseason – as the OVER has gone 6-2 in the eight preseason games the Rams have played with Fisher calling the shots. The one other trend I found was that Fisher sure tries in the Rams dress rehearsal game where St. Louis is a perfect 2-0 ATS with both of these games being played on the road – this year’s dress rehearsal game is on the road again as the Rams visit Cleveland on Aug. 23.

 

[CNOTES]

Preseason Report - AFC

July 25, 2014


AFC East

Buffalo Bills

Head Coach: Doug Marrone
Quarterback Rotation: E.J. Manuel, Jeff Tuel, Dennis Dixon, Thad Lewis

Doug Marrone enters his second season as Buffalo’s head coach. He’s been in the NFL for seven years, from 2006-08 he served as the offensive coordinator of the New Orleans Saints after a four-year span as the offensive line coach of the New York Jets (2002-05). With this being only Doug Marrone’s second year as a Head Coach: we don’t have much to go on for his preseason trends – however I’ve isolated something that may give us a solid play for the Bills this preseason. Since he's still a fairly new head coach, I can see Marrone wanting to impress the home crowd in his first home game this preseason and this is backed by a strong recent trend for the Bills in the preseason – as Buffalo is 4-0 against the spread in their first home preseason game of the year last four years.

New York Jets

Head Coach: Rex Ryan
Quarterback Rotation: Geno Smith, Michael Vick, Matt Simms, Tajh Boyd (Rookie Clemson)

The Jets have been consistent in their first and last preseason games over the last four years. Rex Ryan has never put any effort in the Jets opening preseason game, evidenced by their 0-4 against the spread. While in their last preseason game of the year Ryan and the Jets defensive coaches sure take the day off as the Jets have seen the OVER go 4-0 since 2010. So right off the bat here we have a perfect 8-0 trend on the Jets to keep an eye on this preseason.

Miami Dolphins

Head Coach: Joe Philbin
Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore, Pat Devlin, Brock Jensen – (Rookie - North Dakota State)

This will be Philbin’s third year as head coach of the Dolphins, after going over his first two preseason campaigns, it’s very apparent that he puts very little effort into winning these meaningless games. In his first nine preseason games the Dolphins are a woeful 1-8 against the spread with their only win coming against the hapless Jaguars. So let’s make the Dolphins a definite fade this preseason.

New England Patriots

Head Coach: Bill Belichick
Quarterback Rotation: Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett, Jimmy Garoppolo (Rookie - Eastern Illinois)

Here is one of my top rated preseason plays, and it focuses on coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Belichick has never liked to give anything away to his opponents – just look at one of his press conferences to see what I mean – well something shows up in the preseason every year from New England that we can take advantage of. Week 3 of the preseason is when all teams do their dress rehearsal for the season with all starters on both sides of the ball playing into the third quarter. Well again Belichick doesn’t want his regular season Week 1 opponent to get any films to look at so he doesn’t take this game seriously – and it show shows up in the point spread logs as the Patriots over the past six seasons are a dismal 0-6 against the spread in this situation. Just to give you an example of how strong this is in last year’s dress rehearsal against the Lions, the Patriots were crushed 40-9 as one-point underdogs. So mark down Aug. 22 on your calendar as the Patriots host Carolina in their dress rehearsal game this year.

AFC North

Cleveland Browns

Head Coach: Mike Pettine
Quarterback Rotation: Brian Hoyer, Johnny Manziel (R Texas A&M), Tyler Thigpen, Connor Shaw (Rookie South Carolina)

With Pettine’s specialty being defense – let’s keep an eye out on the Browns UNDER this preseason – as he may concentrate on what he knows best trying to build the team. Another strong trend that has developed for Cleveland is its dress rehearsal games. The Browns are 0-3, losing all of these games both straight up and against the spread with the UNDER also going 3-0. One other note – when you see that Johnny Football will be getting the majority of the playing time in any of these Cleveland preseason games – I feel the Browns will be a solid bet – as his style will be perfect to easily move the ball up and down the field especially against the substitutes.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Head Coach: Mike Tomlin
Quarterback Rotation: Ben Roethlisberger, Bruce Gradkowski, Landry Jones, Brandon Kay (Rookie Cincinnati)

The new CBA rules sure took its effect on the Steelers in last year’s preseason – with Tomlin not being able to incorporate his usual intense training camp, and it showed on the field as the Steelers went 0-4 both straight up and against the spread. Something to watch for as the preseason starts this year. Plus the Steelers are on a 0-4 run in their preseason home games over the past two years all as a favorite, and 1-7 ATS overall.

Cincinnati Bengals

Head Coach: Marvin Lewis
Quarterback Rotation: Andy Dalton, Jason Campbell, AJ McCarron (Rookie Alabama), Matt Scott

With the Bengals being a consistent playoff team – Lewis doesn’t take these preseason games too seriously – however a strong trend has developed in the Bengals first home preseason game over the past four years – where the Bengals are a perfect 4-0 both straight up and against the spread – so it sure looks like Lewis wants to win this first home game for the fans. The Bengals first home game this year is on Aug. 14 versus the Jets.

Baltimore Ravens
Head Coach: John Harbaugh

Quarterback Rotation: Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Keith Wenning (Rookie Ball State)
Here we have another team that has been effected with the new CBA rule changes – Harbaugh and the Ravens used to be a strong bet in the preseason as they mostly played low-scoring games making the UNDER the way to go. However with the less intense training camp routines now in place, the Ravens have seen the OVER go a money making 7-1 the past two preseasons. Strong trend to watch for again this year!!!

AFC South

Houston Texans
Head Coach: Bill O’Brien

Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum, Tom Savage (R Pittsburgh)

O’Brien’s offensive experience may help us make some money with the Texans this preseason – As I found that Houston as seen the OVER be the winning play in their first preseason game the last 4 years. Plus the Texans have seen the OVER go 6-2 the past two years. So let’s look for some high-scoring games form the Texans this preseason.

Indianapolis Colts
Head Coach: Chuck Pagano

Quarterback Rotation: Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck, Chandler Harnish

With Pagano as head coach, the Colts sure like to play a very wide-open game in their first preseason game of the year – as over the past two years a combined average of 52 points have been scored. And what a perfect opponent to open up with this year as the Jets, who have watched the OVER go 4-0 in their preseason games from a year ago. This year’s opening preseason game against the Jets will be played on Aug. 7.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Head Coach: Gus Bradley

Quarterback Rotation: Chad Henne, Blake Bortles (Rookie UCF), Ricky Stanzi, Stephen Morris (Rookie Miami)
The Jaguars have lost their dress rehearsal game in 2011 and 2012, and Gus Bradley sure continued this trend in his first year as head coach in 2013 as the Jaguars gave up 34 points against the Eagles in another double-digit loss. Let’s look for this strong trend to continue this season as Jacksonville pays a visit to Detroit on Aug. 22 for their dress rehearsal game. Plus, I have to add here that the Jaguars sure weren’t ready to play in their opening preseason game with Bradley as they were dominated at home against the Dolphins 27-3. Jacksonville’s first preseason game this year is on Aug. 8 against the Buccaneers (Tampa Bay is one of my strongest preseason plays as its a money making 6-2 ATS in its first preseason game) a perfect fit here against an underachieving Jaguars squad.

Tennessee Titans
Head Coach: Ken Whisenhunt

Quarterback Rotation: Jake Locker, Charlie Whitehurst, Tyler Wilson, Zach Mettenberger (Rookie LSU)
The Titans lost three of their four preseason games last season – this may be something to watch for again this year – as in his last year as the head coach of the Cardinals back in 2012, Whisenhunt went a perfect 0-4 against the spread. Plus Whisenhunt in his final two years as head coach in the preseason saw six of his last eight games go OVER the posted total.

AFC West

Denver Broncos
Head Coach: John Fox
Quarterback Rotation: Payton Manning, Brock Osweiler, Zac Dysert, Bryn Renner (Rookie North Carolina)
Strong trend has developed since John Fox has taken over as the head coach of the Broncos, as Denver has come out strong in their opening preseason game going a perfect 3-0 with all three wins as an underdog. This preseason the Broncos open up against the Super Bowl champions Seahawks – who may have the Super Bowl hangover coming into this preseason. Plus the opposite is sure true in the Broncos dress rehearsal game under Fox where Denver has failed to cover the spread in all three games. This year’s dress rehearsal game is on Aug. 23 against Houston.

Kansas City Chiefs
Head Coach: Andy Reid

Quarterback Rotation: Alex Smith, Chase Daniel, Tyler Bray, Aaron Murray (Rookie Georgia)
Kansas City has been one of the best fade teams in the preseason going an incredible 6-23 against the spread over the past seven years. I definitely look for more of the same this year as I look for Andy Reid to continue the tradition in Kansas City of not caring about these preseason games. Take a close look at the Chiefs first preseason game this year as Reid is 1-8 against the spread in his last nine opening preseason games in Philadelphia and Kansas City. Kansas City opens up this year at home against Cincinnati on Aug. 7.

Oakland Raiders
Head Coach: Dennis Allen

Quarterback Rotation: Matt Schaub, Derek Carr (Rookie Fresno State), Matt McGloin, Trent Edwards
Allen has continued the Raiders losing ways in the preseason already losing six of the Raiders eight preseason games with him calling the shots. Plus no matter whom the head coach is of Oakland they always seem to finish the preseason on a down note – as in the past seven years they are a perfect 0-7 against the spread in their last preseason game of the year. This year’s finale for the Raiders is on Aug. 28 against the Seahawks at home.

San Diego Chargers
Head Coach: Mike McCoy

Quarterback Rotation: Philip Rivers, Kellen Clemens, Brad Sorensen
Now in his second season in San Diego, you can’t forget that Mike McCoy came from Denver where he was the offensive coordinator for the high powered Broncos offense. I’m curious to see what numbers the oddsmakers put up on the San Diego totals this preseason. As last preseason the Chargers under McCoy saw the OVER go 3-1. With McCoy’s offensive background watch for San Diego to continue their high scoring ways this preseason.

 

[CNOTES]

Preseason Report - Coaches

July 25, 2014

Betting on the NFL preseason is one of the most profitable endeavors you can partake in this football season. The secret to making money in the preseason is the ability to know which coaches are trying to win and which coaches are just going through the motions. That factor in itself will give you a huge edge over the sportsbooks year after year.

Also, I can't say it enough but you also need to be familiar with the history of each team in August. Plus, keeping an eye out on each team's preseason quarterback rotations will also make you turn a nice profit in the preseason. Without further adieu, let's start handicapping!

As mentioned above coaching is key and you should be aware of this year's head coaching changes:

This season we have seven coaching changes coming into the 2014 season.

Here is this year’s list:

Cleveland Browns - Mike Pettine - Pettine joins the Browns after spending 2013 as the defensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills and the 2009-12 seasons as the defensive coordinator for the New York Jets.

Detroit Lions - Jim Caldwell - He was a head coach or coordinator in three Super Bowls with Indianapolis (XLI and XLIV) and Baltimore (XLVII) and won two Super Bowl titles (Indianapolis and Baltimore).

Houston Texans - Bill O’Brien comes in as the new head coach for the Texans – O’Brien was a member of the Patriots' coaching staff from 2007 where he rose from offensive assistant his first season to wide receivers coach in 2008 and then quarterbacks coach from 2009-10 prior to his promotion to offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach in 2011. He spent the last two year as the Penn State head coach.

Minnesota Vikings – Mike Zimmer takes over as the Vikings new head coach - A veteran defensive coordinator, Zimmer enters his 21st season on an NFL sideline, the past 14 working as defensive coordinator for Cincinnati (2008-13), Atlanta (2007) and Dallas (2000-06).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Lovie Smith is the new Tampa Bay head coach –Smith joins the Buccaneers after having spent nine seasons as the Chicago Bears head coach.

Tennessee Titans - Ken Whisenhunt is the new Tennessee head coach - Whisenhunt brings 17 seasons of NFL coaching experience to the Titans, including six years (2007-12) as head coach of the Arizona Cardinals.

Washington Redskins - Jay Gruden is the new Washington head coach – Gruden has been the Bengals offensive coordinator the past three seasons.

 

[CNOTES]

Handicapping Win Totals

July 26, 2014

2014 NFL Season Win Totals… The New Math

Thinking about investing in the NFL season win totals market this year? If so, my best advice to you is to make your approach with a different mind-set – from a Vegas perspective. In other words out with the old and in with the new.

Strength of Schedule

At first glance, most players will initially look at a team’s projected strength of schedule – the key word here being ‘projected’ – when sizing up a team’s win potential for the year.

The most common formula in determining strength of schedule is adding the win-loss record of each opponent from the previous season.

For instance: Oakland’s foes for the 2014 season combined to go 160-116 last year for a combined win percentage of .560, whereas Indianapolis’ opponents this season were 113-150 during the 2013 campaign.

Hence, by doing the math, the Raiders appear set to take on the league’s most difficult itinerary, with the Colts taking on the softest.

SOS – The New Math

On paper, strength of schedule numbers do not lie. On the field, though, it’s an entirely different story.

A better gauge of calculating each team’s strength of schedule is to look at each team’s opponent for what they are expected to be – not what they were last year.

We do this by weighing each opponent’s estimated season win totals for the upcoming year. The higher the grand total, the more difficult the mission.

These are the season win totals set by the sharpest oddsmakers in the industry. These anticipated win totals much better represent each team’s probability of wins and losses for the season ahead as opposed to the itinerary they faced the previous campaign.

For instance, using the opening season win totals posted by Jay Kornegay of the SuperBook in Las Vegas, Arizona will actually face the most difficult schedule in 2014 with opponents’ overall projected season win totals collectively adding up to 138 victories this season.

On the flip side, Houston brings up the rear, going up against opponents with a Charmin-like 118 collective season wins for the year.

Turning Over a New Page

Make no mistake about it. Avoiding fumbles and other turnovers is the single most predictive measure of success in the NFL.

And when it comes to turnovers in the NFL, returning to the norm is also a common practice for teams that were heavily on one side or the other of the seasonal equation.

Consider: over the last half dozen years, there have been a total of 23 losing teams that finished the season on the plus-side of overall turnovers. Only five of them fell to a worse win-loss record the following season (14 improvements and 4 with identical records).

This year finds Buffalo, St. Louis and Tampa Bay meeting the same criteria.

On the other side of the coin, 17 teams concluded a season with a winning record despite finishing on the minus-side of the turnover ledger. Only four of them managed to improve on their record the next year (10 improvements and 3 with matching records).

This year’s cast of characters staring at a very slippery slope includes Arizona, Green Bay and San Diego.

Losers to Winners and Vice-Versa

In closing, one final thought when pondering the combination of turnovers last year to win totals in the NFL this season.

Looking back over the past six seasons, the top three teams in net plus-turnovers over the course of the regular season declined an average of -2.4 games straight up, and -2.2 games against the spread the following season.

This year finds Seattle (+20), Kansas City (+16) and Indianapolis (+13) as the turnover kings in 2013.

Conversely, the bottom three teams in net minus-turnovers the previous season improved by an average of +2.3 games straight up, and +2.7 games against the spread the following campaign.

The three leading candidates to wear the silver slipper this year are Houston (-20), the N.Y. Giants (-17) and the N.Y. Jets (-14).

So before you take the plunge this NFL season, try acquainting yourself with The New Math. You’ll be glad you did!

 

[CNOTES]

Three live long-shot QBs to top the NFL in passing yards

July could be the toughest month for NFL bettors. Training camps are open, the preseason is almost here, and there are long lists of team and player props growing everyday at your sportsbook of choice. Will Week 1 ever come?

July is like a Christmas Eve that lasts 31 days.

In order to help get your through those hot sleepless summer nights, we’re breaking down some of the most popular NFL player props on the board – starting with the “Most Passing Yards” odds from Sportsbook.ag.

Here are three "Most Passing Yard" wagers – outside of the top favorites (Peyton Manning +300, Drew Brees +400, Aaron Rodgers +600, Matt Stafford +700) – that present solid value heading into the 2014 NFL season:

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (+1,800)

Luck was seventh in the league in passing last season, tossing for 4,596 yards, but had his top target taken away from him when WR Reggie Wayne went down with a season-ending injury in Week 7. The Colts added WR Hakeem Nicks and drafted WR Donte Moncrief in the third round, bolstering a receiving corps that also features breakout star WR T.Y. Hilton and a potent TE combo in Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen.

Outside of matchups with Cincinnati and Houston, Indianapolis doesn’t face any elite pass defenses in 2014, setting Luck up for a big season in Year 3. The Colts will be at the top of the AFC South and more than likely contending for home field in the conference. A Week 1 showdown in Denver, versus Peyton Manning, could get the ball rolling on Luck’s career year.

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (+2,000)

Ha, ha, ha. Laugh it up. Get all the “Tony Oh-No” jokes out. No seriously, we’ll wait…

There. You done?

Romo threw the ball 535 times in 2013, a drop from his 648 pass attempts in 2012. Sure, he missed the final game of the year and RB DeMarco Murray demanded his share of touches, but Dallas still runs a pass-happy offense as long as Jason Garrett is bumbling the playbook. Remember, Romo passed for 4,903 yards in 2012 – just 46 yards behind Manning.

Romo is coming off back surgery but says he’s going to be better than ever this season. He certainly has the talent around him to challenge for the passing title. Top receiver Dez Bryant is emerging as an elite force, TE Jason Witten is about as secure a safety blanket as you can find, and even Murray is a threat to catch passes. And with a defense that gave up a record number of yards last year, Romo will be called upon to carry the team most weeks.

Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles (+2,500)

There’s no denying the Eagles offense is going to put up some monster numbers in 2014. Philadelphia is another year into Chip Kelly’s high-octane attack and Foles is the man in Philly, after splitting snaps with Mike Vick and missing time with a concussion in 2013.

Despite those setbacks, Foles led the league in yards per pass (8.8), was sixth in passing touchdowns (29), and threw for 3,086 yards despite attempting only 350 passes – tied for 25th (with Ryan Fitzpatrick). The Eagles were among the most run-heavy teams in the NFL (passing only 52.97 percent of the time) and some of that had to do with the instability at QB.

Philadelphia did drop home-run hitter DeSean Jackson this offseason, who topped the team with 1,385 yards receiving in 2013. But, as Kelly proved in his time at Oregon, this is a system that can plug in random parts and produce. Expect stud running back LeSean McCoy to catch more passes and rookie WR Jordan Matthews to emerge as a big weapon for the Eagles – all the while boosting Foles’ stats.