Cnotes nfl december trends/news/ stats/ all you need to know to wager the games!

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 17

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
The Bengals (10-4-1 SU) head to Pittsburgh on Sunday night to face a Steelers team that is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games against a team with a winning SU record. Pittsburgh is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Steelers favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's NFL picks.

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 28

Game 301-302: Detroit at Green Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 132.879; Green Bay 143.196
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 10 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 7 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-7 1/2); Under

Game 303-304: Jacksonville at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 125.369; Houston 132.756
Dunkel Line: Houston by 7 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Houston by 10 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+10 1/2); Over

Game 305-306: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 134.320; Pittsburgh 140.294
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 6; 51
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-3 1/2); Over

Game 307-308: Indianapolis at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 130.666; Tennessee 125.039
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 5 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 7 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+7 1/2); Under

Game 309-310: Cleveland at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 127.532; Baltimore 134.116
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 10; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+10); Over

Game 311-312: Buffalo at New England (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 135.211; New England 146.708
Dunkel Line: New England by 11 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: New England by 5; 44
Dunkel Pick: New England (-5); Under

Game 313-314: NY Jets at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 132.340; Miami 134.627
Dunkel Line: Miami by 2 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Miami by 6; 42
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+6); Over

Game 315-316: Carolina at Atlanta (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 127.447; Atlanta 136.034
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 8 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 4; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4); Under

Game 317-318: Chicago at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 121.846; Minnesota 132.623
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 11; 41
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-6 1/2); Under

Game 319-320: San Diego at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 133.997; Kansas City 132.960
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+3); Over

Game 321-322: Philadelphia at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 131.032; NY Giants 132.498
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 52
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3); Over

Game 323-324: Dallas at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 140.021; Washington 126.173
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 14; 45
Vegas Line: Dallas by 6; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-6); Under

Game 325-326: New Orleans at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 134.743; Tampa Bay 128.389
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 6; 52
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3 1/2); Over

Game 327-328: St. Louis at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 133.176; Seattle 142.991
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 10; 35
Vegas Line: Seattle by 13; 41
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+13); Under

Game 329-330: Arizona at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 130.972; San Francisco 130.742
Dunkel Line: Even; 40
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 7; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+7); Over

Game 331-332: Oakland at Denver (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 125.535; Denver 143.159
Dunkel Line: Denver by 17 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Denver by 14; 48
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-14); Under

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 17

Sunday, December 28

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DETROIT (11 - 4) at GREEN BAY (11 - 4) - 12/28/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 76-103 ATS (-37.3 Units) in road games since 1992.
DETROIT is 76-103 ATS (-37.3 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
DETROIT is 56-82 ATS (-34.2 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
GREEN BAY is 58-36 ATS (+18.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 83-58 ATS (+19.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 61-37 ATS (+20.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 55-33 ATS (+18.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (3 - 12) at HOUSTON (8 - 7) - 12/28/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (10 - 4 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (10 - 5) - 12/28/2014, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 64-91 ATS (-36.1 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 93-66 ATS (+20.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 80-56 ATS (+18.4 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (10 - 5) at TENNESSEE (2 - 13) - 12/28/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games this season.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
TENNESSEE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
TENNESSEE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
TENNESSEE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 5-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (7 - 8) at BALTIMORE (9 - 6) - 12/28/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (8 - 7) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 3) - 12/28/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 166-126 ATS (+27.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 73-46 ATS (+22.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 54-33 ATS (+17.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 5-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (3 - 12) at MIAMI (8 - 7) - 12/28/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 47-29 ATS (+15.1 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
NY JETS are 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-2 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (6 - 8 - 1) at ATLANTA (6 - 9) - 12/28/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 52-29 ATS (+20.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 56-36 ATS (+16.4 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
CAROLINA is 73-42 ATS (+26.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 49-25 ATS (+21.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 4-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (5 - 10) at MINNESOTA (6 - 9) - 12/28/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 10-32 ATS (-25.2 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 13-30 ATS (-20.0 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (9 - 6) at KANSAS CITY (8 - 7) - 12/28/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 3-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 4-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (9 - 6) at NY GIANTS (6 - 9) - 12/28/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 2-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (11 - 4) at WASHINGTON (4 - 11) - 12/28/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 35-54 ATS (-24.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 74-103 ATS (-39.3 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 74-103 ATS (-39.3 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
WASHINGTON is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 74-103 ATS (-39.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 3-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (6 - 9) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 13) - 12/28/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 5-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (6 - 9) at SEATTLE (11 - 4) - 12/28/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 102-141 ATS (-53.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 22-41 ATS (-23.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
SEATTLE is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 28-46 ATS (-22.6 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 4-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-2 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (11 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (7 - 8) - 12/28/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 13-30 ATS (-20.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1992.
ARIZONA is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
ARIZONA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (3 - 12) at DENVER (11 - 4) - 12/28/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 29-53 ATS (-29.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 28-51 ATS (-28.1 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DENVER is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 4-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 5-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 17

Jacksonville at Houston, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 23-12 UNDER against conference opponents
Houston: 6-0 UNDER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games

Indianapolis at Tennesse, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 10-2 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game
tennessee: 1-8 ATS versus division opponents

Cleveland at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 8-1 UNDER off 1 or more consecutive unders
Baltimore: 24-11 UNDER in the last 2 weeks of the regular season

Buffalo at New England, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 0-6 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite
New England: 12-3 ATS off a division game

NY Jets at Miami, 1:00 ET
NY Jets: 47-29 ATS in road games versus division opponents
Miami: 5-15 ATS in home games after a win by 3 or less points

Chicago at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 2-11 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better
Minnesota: 13-4 ATS off a road loss

San Diego at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 59-37 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Kansas City: 18-34 ATS in home games after scoring 14 points or less last game

Philadelphia at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 13-4 UNDER in road games after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games
NY Giants: 7-0 UNDER after scoring 35 points or more last game

Dallas at Washington, 1:00 ET
Dallas: 6-0 UNDER after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games
Washington: 13-4 UNDER in home games against conference opponents

New Orleans at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 56-36 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Tampa Bay: 19-34 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses

Detroit at Green Bay, 4:25 ET
Detroit: 1-8 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins
Green Bay: 6-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road

St Louis at Seattle, 4:25 ET
St Louis: 25-47 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse
Seattle: 8-1 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games

Carolina at Atlanta, 4:25 ET
Carolina: 56-36 ATS revenging a loss against opponent
Atlanta: 13-27 ATS in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game

Arizona at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
Arizona: 6-0 ATS after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game
San Francisco: 15-5 OVER in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points

Oakland at Denver, 4:25 ET
Oakland: 0-7 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 or more
Denver: 12-4 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3 games

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, 8:30 ET
Cincinnati: 64-91 ATS versus division opponents
Pittsburgh: 80-56 ATS in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Week 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, December 28

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. NY GIANTS
Philadelphia is 10-3 SU in their last 13 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing NY Giants
NY Giants are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games
NY Giants are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games when playing Philadelphia

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games on the road
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. WASHINGTON
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. TENNESSEE
Indianapolis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. MIAMI
NY Jets are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against Miami
NY Jets are 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 games on the road
Miami is 7-14-1 ATS in their last 22 games when playing NY Jets
Miami is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing at home against NY Jets

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cleveland's last 11 games
Cleveland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Diego
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. TAMPA BAY
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. HOUSTON
Jacksonville is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Houston
Jacksonville is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Jacksonville
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

4:25 PM
OAKLAND vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 10 games when playing Oakland

4:25 PM
CAROLINA vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina

4:25 PM
ARIZONA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Arizona is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing San Francisco
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Arizona

4:25 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SEATTLE
St. Louis is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Seattle is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing St. Louis

4:25 PM
DETROIT vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Detroit's last 14 games
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games at home
Green Bay is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games when playing Detroit

8:25 PM
CINCINNATI vs. PITTSBURGH
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 17

Lions (11-4) @ Packers (11-4)-- Detroit lost last 20 visits to Lambeau; Packers' QB was Mike Tomczak last time Lions won here, year before Favre got to Titletown. Winner will be NFC North champ, should get bye; both are in playoffs. Detroit won first meeting at home 19-7 (-2.5) in Week 3, holding Pack to 223 yards, their lowest total of season. Pack is 1-4 on turf, 9-0 on grass; they're 5-2 as home favorites this season, winning by 7-6 in non-covers. Detroit won last four games, allowing 15.5 to non-playoff teams; they're 0-3 as underdogs this year, losing those games by 17-8-25 points. Home favorites are 6-1 vs spread in NFC North divisional games. Under is 12-2 in last 14 Detroit games, 4-1 in last five Packer tilts.

Jaguars (3-12) @ Texans (8-7)-- Get queasy laying 9.5 points with team using 4th-string QB; Texans won three of last four games, holding Ravens to 211 yards last week; they've got a +11 turnover ratio in last eight games. Houston is 6-2 in last eight games vs Jaguars, winning six of last eight played here (five by 10+ points). Jags are 0-2 in game following a win this season, losing both games 27-13; they're 2-4-1 as road dogs this year. Texans had seven red zone drives last week, had one TD, six FGs; week of practice should help Keenum, who was picked up last week. Favorites are 9-1 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season. Houston needs to win, and Chargers/Ravens to lose to make playoffs. Four of last five Jaguar games, five of last six Texan games stayed under total.

Colts (11-4) @ Titans (2-13)-- Tennessee will probably get #1 pick in draft, so no way do they (or should they) win this game; Titans (+7.5) lost 41-17 at Indy in Week 4, with Colts outgaining them, 498-261, converting 7-14 on third down. Colts won 11 of last 12 in series, but struggled to win 19-13/30-27 in last two visits here. Titans are down to #3 QB Whitehurst here, with Jordan Palmer on bench; Tennessee lost its last nine games, is 0-5 vs spread in last five- they scored total of 31 points in last three. Colts are 3-0 vs the spread in game following a loss this year, winning those games by 27-16-20 points. Faves are 9-1 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this year. Four of last five Indy games, last three Titan games stayed under.

Browns (7-8) @ Ravens (9-6)-- Baltimore needs win/Charger loss to make playoffs after their faceplant in Houston last week; Ravens are 4-1 vs spread in game following a loss this season, Cleveland lost its last four games, but is 5-1 as road underdog, losing away games by 3-18-16-4 points. Baltimore is 4-3 as home favorite, 0-2 in last two. After so much talk about Hoyer/Manziel, Browns start Connor Shaw as QB here; he played in 43 games at South Carolina in college; this is his first-ever NFL experience. Dogs are 6-3 vs spread in AFC North divisional games. 10 of last 11 Cleveland games, last three Raven games stayed under the total. Again, if Chargers win concurrent game at Arrowhead, this becomes irrelevant for Ravens, but if Chiefs win, this game is Baltimore's season.

Bills (8-7) @ Patriots (12-3)-- Game opened NE -8.5, is now at 4.5 or 5.0 raising ???'s as to how much Brady-Gronkowski-Edelman will play, with nothing at stake here for Pats, who beat Buffalo 37-22 (-3) in first meeting in Week 6. NE had +3 turnover ratio which led to 12-yard edge in field position. Bills had chance to make playoffs until losing last week at 3-12 Oakland, terrilbe loss; they are 1-21 in last 22 series games, losing last 13 visits here (three of last five by 8 or less points); Patriots scored 31+ points five of last six meetings. Buffalo is playing for first winning season since '04; they're 4-2 as dogs on road this season, losing last three SU by 13-7-2 points. Six of last seven Buffalo games, four of last five Patriot games stayed under total.

Jets (3-12) @ Dolphins (8-7)-- Home side lost eight of last ten series games; Jets are 3-1 in last four visits here, 5-2 in last seven, but Rex Ryan era comes to sorry end, with Jets losing despite giving decent efforts-- their last four games were all decided by five or less points or in OT. Miami won first meeting 16-13 (-7) four weeks ago, running ball for 277 yards but averaging just 3.3 ypa. Dolphins are playing for winning season; coach Philbin will be back next year-- Miami is 2-3 as home favorite this year, 13-32 since '03-- they won 37-35 over Vikings last week, blocking punt for safety in last minute. Fish allowed 34.7 ppg in last three games, but Jets averaged 14.4 ppg in last four. Six of last seven Jet games stayed under the total.

Carolina (6-8-1) @ Falcons (6-9)-- Winner here wins NFC South, Panthers advance if the teams tie; Atlanta won last four series games, winning 19-17 (-1) in Week 11. Panthers lost five of last six visits here, winning 21-20 LY; they won first two games this season, won last three games, went 1-8-1 in between. Carolina allowed 13.3 ppg in its last three games, giving up four TDs on 42 drives; they're 4-3 as road underdogs and have Newton back at QB- they've run ball for 194.8 ypg last four weeks. Falcons are +10 in turnovers the last seven games, holding three of last four opponents under 60 yards rushing. Seven of last ten Atlanta games stayed under total; last six Carolina road games went over total. Panthers are 3-6 vs spread in games where spread was 4 or less points.

Bears (5-10) @ Vikings (6-9)-- Cutler is back at QB as Bears try for damage control after horrible second half of season; they've lost last four games, losing last three on road by a combined 140-54 margin. Minnesota covered five in row, eight of last nine games; they're 3-0 as home favorites this year; seven of their last nine games were decided by 3 or less points or in OT. Chicago lost 21-14/23-20 in last two visits to Twin Cities, as home side won last five series games; Bears won eight of last ten series games, winning 21-13 (-3) in Week 11, outgaining Vikings 468-243 in game Minnesota led 10-0 early on. Vikings have scored 30+ points in three of last four games overall; they're 17 of last 35 on third down, as rookie QB Bridgewater is turning out to be a keeper.

Chargers (9-6) @ Chiefs (8-7)-- Alex Smith (lacerated spleen) is out; Chase Daniel makes his 2nd NFL start here. San Diego makes playoffs with win; Chiefs need win and help to make it. KC (+4) won 23-20 at San Diego in Week 7, running for 154 yards in a game they trailed 14-10 at half. Bolts won four of last five series games; last three were decided by three points. Chargers' last three wins were all by three or less points; over last 10+ years, they're 8-1-3 as a road underdog in division games. Chiefs lost four of last five games, are 4-1 as home favorites this year, after being 5-19-1 from '07-'13. Red flag for Chargers: they've lost field position in last five games, four by 8+ yards; teams that lost field position by 10+ yards this season are 4-85 SU. Four of last five Charger road games went over total; three of last four Chief games stayed under.

Eagles (9-6) @ Giants (6-9)-- Philly (-3) blanked Giants 27-0 in Week 6, running ball for 203 yards, but Foles was QB then and Beckham had yet to establish himself as one of best WRs in NFL. Eagles won 10 of last 13 series games, are 6-1 in last seven visits here but they're only third team since '90 to be at 9-3 or better after 12 games yet not make it to playoffs. Philly lost last three games, allowing 29.7 ppg (11 TDs on last 32 drives). Giants won last three games, scoring 16 TDs on 57 drives in last five; they scored 32.3 ppg in last three games, all vs losing teams. Big Blue is +5 in turnovers last three games, has converted 38 of last 79 (48.1%) on third down. Eagles have 21 penalties in last two games, for 197 yards. Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Eagle games, 6-3 last nine Giant games.

Cowboys (11-4) @ Redskins (4-11)-- Washington snapped Cowboys' 6-game winning streak with 20-17 (+9) OT win in Week 8; Redskins are 4-8 in last 12 series games, with Dallas winning four of last six visits here. Series has been swept in four of last five years. That said, Cowboys are NFC East champs, are playing for first round bye which would be big for Romo's back/Murray's hand. Dallas is 7-0 on road, 5-5 vs spread as a favorite; they scored 40.3 ppg in winning last three games, with +7 turnover ratio (9-2). Redskins snapped six-game skid by eliminating Eagles last week; Griffin has played better in last two games, but they still have only three TDs on last eight red zone drives-- they're nine of last 40 on third down plays, which has hampered their field position.

Saints (6-9) @ Buccaneers (2-13)-- Saints (-10) needed OT to beat Bucs 37-31 in Week 5, outgaining Tampa 511-314 while surviving three INTs (-2 ratio). Saints won last six in series, winning four of last five visits here (won 16-14 in T-storm here LY). Bucs could get #1 pick in draft with loss here, and can't drop below #2, so no way should they win this game. Tampa Bay lost five in row, 10 of last 11 games; they're 1-3 as home dogs this year, 7-18-1 as home dogs since '09. Saints lost five of last seven games, allowing 30+ in four of last five, but they won last three road games by 18-3-16 points. Eight of last nine Buc games stayed under the total. Tampa Bay lost field position in last three games by 7-22-11 yards; they scored 12.6 ppg during current five-game losing streak.

Rams (6-9) @ Seahawks (11-4)-- Seattle takes NFC West with win here; they lost first meeting 28-26 (-7) in St Louis in Week 7, when Rams used couple trick plays on special teams to hold on after they almost squandered 21-6 halftime lead. Rams lost last eight in Seattle, with six of last seven losses here by 10+ points; their last win here was a playoff game ten years ago. Seattle won its last five games overall (4-0-1 vs spread), allowing only three TDs on last 50 drives, holding all five foes under 5.0 ypa. Seahawks are 4-2-1 as home favorites, with last three home wins by 21-16-10 points. Four of last five Seattle games stayed under total. Rams are 6-4 as an underdog this year, 4-2 on road; they lost last two games when favored at home.

Cardinals (11-4) @ 49ers (7-8)-- Arizona switched starting QBs twice during week; looks like Lindley gets second start here. Redbirds are in playoffs but hit road unless Rams pull unlikely upset in Seattle. Cardinals (+3) won first meeting 23-14 n Week 3, getting seven of 24 first downs via 49er penalties in just their second series win in last 11 tries. Cards lost last five visits to Bay Area, all by 12+ points but 49ers are is disarray. losing four in a row and with coaching change rumored to be imminent- they blew 28-7 halftime lead in home loss to Chargers last week, after scoring total of 23 points in previous three games. Cardinals haven't scored a TD in last two games and only one in game before that came on a 42-yard drive. Seven of last ten Arizona games stayed under the total.

Raiders (3-12) @ Broncos (11-4)-- Denver needs win to get bye next week, which is big for team with old, immobile QB and creaky OL. Broncos (-11) won first meeting 41-17 in Week 10, outgaining Oakland 471-232 in their sixth straight series win. Raiders lost last two visits here 37-6/37-21; they're 3-2 in last five games overall after 0-10 start, but lost 52-0/31-13 in games in between the wins. Oakland is 19-7 in last 26 games as a divisional road dog, 1-1 this year; they're 3-3-1 as road dogs this year, with four seven road losses by 7 or less points. Six of last eight Raider games went over total; four of last five Denver games stayed under. Denver is 3-4 as home favorite, getting backdoored in last two home games. Halftime scores of last three series games: 27-7/31-0/20-10, all Denver.

Bengals (10-4-1) @ Steelers (10-5)-- Pitt won 12 of last 16 series games, winning 42-21 (+3.5) in first meeting three weeks ago, running ball for 193 yards; Cincy is 2-3 in its last five visits here, with all three losses by 10+ points. Both teams are in playoffs, winner gets division title, possible bye but at least home game next week. Bengals won seven of last nine games, Pitt won/covered last three; in last eight games, Steelers converted 54-102 on third down- they're 2-3 as home favorite this year. Bengals are 4-1 as road dogs- they won last four road tilts overall. Six of seven Steeler home games went over total; five of last seven Cincy games stayed under. Pitt hasn't turned ball over in its last three games; Bengals have six INTs in last two games, winning field position by 15-16 yards.

 

[CNOTES]

Vegas Line Moves - Week 17


December 26, 2014


LAS VEGAS – Week 17 of the NFL season is finally upon us, and football bettors will get the opportunity to wager on a few meaningful games, with three division titles on the line in head-to-head matchups while some other teams are still vying for the remaining playoff spots. A couple of the biggest line moves so far involve two games featuring AFC teams fighting for the last Wild Card berth, as the San Diego Chargers visit the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens host the Cleveland Browns.


Two quarterback announcements made on Friday answered important questions about who will be starting for the Chiefs and Browns, with veteran Chase Daniel and rookie Connor Shaw getting the call for their respective teams. The Arizona Cardinals are also giving Ryan Lindley his second straight start despite his poor play in a 35-6 home loss to the Seattle Seahawks last Sunday night. The Cardinals originally planned to start rookie Logan Thomas but went back to Lindley with Drew Stanton now expected to miss the rest of the year following knee surgery.


The Chiefs opened as 3-point favorites against the Chargers at The Wynn sportsbook in Las Vegas but have since dropped to -1 on Friday after they ruled starting QB Alex Smith out due to a lacerated spleen. Their backup Daniels actually started last year’s regular-season finale at San Diego when they were resting their starters and nearly helped pull off a monster upset, falling just short as 15-point underdogs in a 27-24 overtime loss. That win for the Chargers got them into the playoffs last year, and another victory at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday is all they need to return to the postseason.


In Baltimore, Shaw is set to make his first career start for Cleveland since Brian Hoyer (shoulder) and Johnny Manziel (hamstring) are both out due to injuries. The former South Carolina Gamecock was an undrafted free agent signed by the Browns after becoming the winningest QB in school history. However, he will go up against a Ravens team needing a win and a loss by San Diego to get into the playoffs. Baltimore opened as an 8.5-point favorite at The Wynn and jumped up to -13 on Friday.


Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, said he expects NFL bettors to be wagering on both teams trying to make the postseason. Because of that, he believes the lines will continue to move in their favor, with the Chargers possibly closing as road favorites before kickoff.


“Cleveland’s had a decent year, but Baltimore really needs the game badly,” Avello said. “Baltimore needs a little help, they need a loss by the Chargers. But the Chargers also picked up a break so far with Kansas City’s quarterback out. I won’t be surprised if we see San Diego go to -1 in that one.


“Kansas City’s not out of it. It’s not like a game where they’re just tossing in the towel. They actually have a chance, they need a lot of help. They need to win this game, they need Baltimore to lose, they need Houston to lose. I’m sure they’ll give it their full effort.”


The three head-to-head games for division titles in Week 17 include the Detroit Lions at the Green Bay Packers (NFC North), the Carolina Panthers at the Atlanta Falcons (NFC South) and the Cincinnati Bengals at the Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC North). The home teams have all seen slight bumps in their favor so far, but nothing significant as of Friday.


“At least we do have something going into this last week,” Avello said. “Sometimes the last week has nothing. We’ll see how the money comes in this weekend because so far it’s been limited in the NFL.”


In addition, the Seattle Seahawks host the St. Louis Rams and can win the NFC West with a victory or Cardinals loss at the San Francisco 49ers. The Seahawks opened as 10.5-point favorites and are already up to -12.5 while the 49ers have gone from -3.5 to -6 at The Wynn. Avello said he will likely raise Arizona’s future odds to win the Super Bowl from 35-to-1 up to 50-1 due to the team’s ongoing QB dilemma, which looks even more bleak considering Stanton’s updated status.


“At least Arizona knows they’re going to make the playoffs,” Avello said. “(But) this team really has no chance of winning. I’m not going to say they can’t win a playoff game, but they’ll probably be bounced early.”


LAS VEGAS SUPERBOOK - WEEK 17 BETTING MOVES


Rotation Team Open Current Move


301 LIONS - - -
302 PACKERS 7.5 7.5 0


303 JAGUARS - - -
304 TEXANS 9.5 9.5 0


305 BENGALS - - -
306 STEELERS 3 3.5 0.5


307 COLTS 7.5 7 -0.5
308 TITANS - - -


309 BROWNS - - -
310 RAVENS 9.5 13 3.5


311 BILLS - - -
312 PATRIOTS 10 5 -5


313 JETS - - -
314 DOLPHINS 6 6 0


315 PANTHERS - - -
316 FALCONS 2.5 3 0.5


317 BEARS - - -
318 VIKINGS 7 6 -1


319 CHARGERS - - -
320 CHIEFS 3 1 -2


321 EAGLES - - -
322 GIANTS 2.5 2.5 0


323 COWBOYS 6 5.5 -0.5
324 REDSKINS - - -


325 SAINTS 5.5 4 -1.5
326 BUCCANEERS - - -


327 RAMS - - -
328 SEAHAWKS 10 12.5 2.5


329 CARDINALS - - -
330 49ERS 3.5 6.5 3


331 RAIDERS - - -
332 BRONCOS 14.5 13.5 -1


Per Bettingmoves, Dec. 26 - 3:00 p.m. ET

 

[CNOTES]

Sharp Moves - Week 17


December 26, 2014




We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 17!


All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchup index as of Thursday morning.


(Rotation #313) New York +6 – Win one more for Rex! There is no doubt that Head Coach Rex Ryan and GM John Idzik are going to be fired on Black Monday, but at least for one more day, the men in green can give Ryan a late Christmas gift to send him out on. The Jets have played their hearts out for Ryan down the stretch of the season, and they very well could find themselves on the right side of this one as well. Miami has nothing left to play for, as it was knocked out of the playoffs last week in spite of the fact that it did beat the Minnesota Vikings, but it wasn't nearly easy. If the Dolphins struggle as much defensively as they did last week against Teddy Bridgewater and the crew, it could end up being a long last day of the season in South Beach.


Opening Line: New York +6
Current Line: New York +6
Public Betting Percentage: 63% on Miami


(Rotation #315) Carolina +3.5 – The Panthers are definitely showing some sharp tendencies this week, and a lot of it is because the oddsmakers are just assuming that home field advantage is going to hold up at some point in the NFC South. Then again, the Saints were favored in all six of their divisional games this year, and to date, they are just 2-3 in those duels. The Panthers have won three games in a row, and they have the better record (albeit by a half game) of these two teams, so it doesn't necessarily make sense that they are the underdogs or that they are sharp. Atlanta's run defense is going to be its downfall in this game and this season, as it is finally going against an elite running team who can pound the rock both between the tackles and on the outside as well.


Opening Line: Carolina +3.5
Current Line: Carolina +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 59% on Atlanta


(Rotation #332) Denver -14.5 – Perhaps never before have we seen a double-digit favorite legitimately be sharp, but here in Week 17, anything can be possible. The Broncos have to win this game if they want to ensure that they will be off next week. Denver has clearly not quite been right these last few weeks. Peyton Manning hasn't looked like the man who has thrown a million career touchdown passes, as he has just three scores against six picks in his last three games combined, and the Denver defense has had its holes. However, what can't be forgotten is the fact that these two teams did play against each other just a handful of weeks ago, and the Broncos walked away with a 41-17 victory. Sharp bettors aren't forgetting that in spite of the fact that squares are considering Denver on a low and Oakland on a high.


Opening Line: Denver -14
Current Line: Denver -14.5
Public Betting Percentage: 55% on Oakland

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's Top Action


December 25, 2014




CLEVELAND BROWNS (7-8) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (9-6)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Baltimore -9, Total: 42.5


The Browns look to spoil the Ravens’ playoff hopes and finish with a .500 season when the AFC North rivals meet on Sunday. Cleveland was unable to win in Carolina last week, losing 17-13 as 6-point underdogs, marking its fourth straight SU loss (2-2 ATS). Meanwhile, Baltimore lost 25-13 as a 5-point favorite in Houston last week, dropping the club to 1-3 ATS (2-2 SU) in its past four contests. When these teams met earlier in the season on Sept. 21, the Ravens won 23-21 as 1.5-point road favorites by out-rushing the Browns 160 to 91. Baltimore is 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS) in this series over the past three seasons and has won-and-covered in six of its past seven trips to Cleveland. The Ravens are 28-13 ATS after gaining four or less yards per play in their previous game since 1992, and are also 38-19 ATS after being outgained by their opponent by 100+ total yards in that timeframe.


QB Johnny Manziel (hamstring) has been ruled out for this game, and QB Brian Hoyer (biceps, shoulder) might not be able to play either, which would leave undrafted rookie Connor Shaw as the starting quarterback. Other notable injuries in this game include Browns CB Joe Haden (shoulder) and WR Andrew Hawkins (thumb) who are both questionable. Baltimore also has some major players injured with WR Steve Smith (knee), OT Eugene Monroe (ankle) and OT Rick Wagner (foot) all questionable, while RB Justin Forsett (ankle) has been upgraded to probable.


The Browns defense really missed top CB Joe Haden last week, surrendering 404 total yards against the Panthers in a 17-13 loss. Cleveland allowed Carolina's offense to go 9-of-16 on third downs, and will need to get more timely stops against the Ravens in this one. Offensively, the Browns lost QB Johnny Manziel (175 pass yards, 0 TD, 2 INT) early in the game and Brian Hoyer (3,326 pass yards, 12 TD, 13 INT) came in. Hoyer threw for 134 yards with a touchdown and one interception. He will get the start on Sunday if healthy enough to give it a go. If not, South Carolina product QB Connor Shaw will make his NFL debut.


TE Jordan Cameron (21 rec, 383 yards, 2 TD) caught three passes for 88 yards and a touchdown last week's loss, as Hoyer connected with Cameron on an 81-yard touchdown to give the Browns a 13-10 lead early in the fourth quarter. WR Josh Gordon (24 rec, 303 yards) was held to just four catches for 45 yards in the game. Whoever is under center for Cleveland will need to do a much better job of getting Gordon the ball. He should be seeing double-digit targets, as he is an elite talent that can make any offense better. RB Isaiah Crowell (601 rush yards, 8 TD) will need to run the ball more effectively if this team is going to beat Baltimore. Crowell has rushed for just 72 yards on 23 carries over the past two weeks, but the Ravens defense ranks fourth in the NFL in both rushing yards allowed (86.9 per game) and yards per carry allowed (3.6).


The Ravens are coming off of a brutal defeat, losing 25-13 against a Case Keenum-led Texans team on Sunday. They must now beat the Browns in order to keep their playoff chances alive and it won’t be easy against a division rival. QB Joe Flacco (3,674 pass yards, 25 TD, 12 INT) really struggled in the game, throwing for 195 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. In a win over the Browns earlier in the season, he threw for just 217 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. He’ll need to take care of the football in this game if he is going to give his team a chance of playing postseason football.


RB Justin Forsett (1,147 yards, 8 TD) will also need to be a lot better than he was last week if the Ravens are going to win this game. Forsett rushed for only 19 yards on 10 carries and caught four passes for 13 yards as well. Baltimore will certainly try to pound the rock, as this Browns defense is allowing an NFL-worst 142.4 rushing yards per game. The Ravens rushed for 160 yards and a touchdown as a whole in the last meeting between these teams and they will look to spark that success once again on Sunday.


SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (9-6) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (8-7)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Kansas City -3, Total: 42


The Chargers look to wrap up the final playoff spot in the AFC when they visit the Chiefs on Sunday.


San Diego outscored the 49ers 28-7 in the second half last Saturday and eventually won 38-35 in overtime. The Chargers can now make the playoffs with a victory over K.C., which lost 20-12 as 2.5-point road underdogs in Pittsburgh last week. The Chiefs still have an outside chance at that final playoff spot, but would need a win plus the Ravens (vs. Browns) and Texans (vs. Jaguars) to both lose. On Oct. 19, Kansas City beat San Diego 23-20 as a 3-point road underdog. Prior to that victory, however, the Chargers had won four straight meetings SU with the Chiefs, including the past two trips to Arrowhead Stadium. Four of the past five meetings in this head-to-head series have finished Over the total.


Kansas City is 0-7 ATS in the past three seasons after having lost four of its past five games, but San Diego is 0-6 ATS after a road game where both teams scored 24+ points in that time. Both rosters are riddled with injuries, including Chargers RB Ryan Mathews (ankle), who is questionable and teammate WR Keenan Allen (ankle), who is listed as doubtful for Sunday. The Chiefs could also be missing top WR Dwayne Bowe, who sprained his shoulder in last week's loss.


The Chargers dug themselves a deep hole against the 49ers last week, but had a miraculous comeback to keep themselves very much alive in the playoff race. San Diego now controls its own destiny after huge performances from both QB Philip Rivers (3,995 pass yards, 31 TD, 16 INT) and TE Antonio Gates (65 rec, 754 yards, 12 TD). Rivers struggled early in the game throwing some costly interceptions, but he ended up tossing two touchdown passes in the fourth quarter which ultimately tied the game up and sent it to overtime. He finished with 356 passing yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions. Gates looked like his vintage self in this one, catching seven passes for 92 yards and two touchdowns. WR Eddie Royal (58 rec, 683 yards, 7 TD) also made some timely plays in this one, catching 10 passes for 94 yards and a touchdown. Defensively, this team is going to need to be a lot better. They allowed 35 points against a 49ers offense that has struggled for the majority of this season, and their 26th-ranked rushing defense will need to be ready to stop Jamaal Charles on Sunday.


The Chiefs have really collapsed down the stretch, losing four of their past five games (SU and ATS). They must now beat the Chargers and hope for a loss by both the Ravens and the Texans if they are going to make the playoffs. RB Jamaal Charles (979 rush yards, 9 TD) is the main player that this offense really relies on in this game. The Chargers are allowing 125.0 rushing yards per game and Charles should be able to find some holes here. He rushed for 95 yards and a touchdown in their last meeting.


QB Alex Smith (3,265 pass yards, 18 TD, 6 INT) will be asked to do what he always does, which is take care of the football and complete high percentage throws. Smith threw for 311 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions in a loss to the Steelers last week. His 45 passing attempts in that game was extremely high for a quarterback like him, so the Chiefs will definitely try to scale him back in this one. The Chiefs defense is allowing just 200.2 passing yards per game (2nd in NFL) this season. They’ll need to be ready to defend the pass in this one, as Philip Rivers could pick them apart in what is really an elimination game for Kansas City.


CAROLINA PANTHERS (6-8-1) at ATLANTA FALCONS (6-9)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Atlanta -4, Total: 48


The Panthers visit the Falcons on Sunday in a game that will determine which sub-.500 team wins the NFC South.


Carolina hosted the Browns in Week 16 and won 17-13 to for its third straight win (1-2 ATS) and to give itself the opportunity to play for the NFC South crown. Meanwhile, Atlanta went into New Orleans and won 30-14 to set up this winner-take-all matchup. These teams met earlier in the season on Nov. 16, when the Falcons beat the Panthers 19-17 as 2.5-point road favorites. Carolina had won three straight games SU against Atlanta prior to that loss, improving to 3-2 SU (4-1 ATS) in this series since the start of 2012. Before losing at home to the Panthers last season, the Falcons had won five straight meetings at Georgia Dome. They have covered in five of their past six home games in this series.


Carolina is 31-15 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of its previous four games since 1992, and is also facing an Atlanta team that is 7-19 ATS in home games after a win by 14+ points in that span. RB DeAngelo Williams (hand) and G Amini Silatolu (knee) are both questionable for the Panthers in this game, while teammate LB A.J. Klein (undisclosed) is doubtful. The Falcons just sent SS William Moore (shoulder) to IR, and they could also be missing top RB Steven Jackson (quad) and G Jon Asamoah (back) for Sunday's regular-season finale.


The Panthers hosted the Browns in a must-win game last week, and QB Cam Newton (3,013 pass yards, 17 TD, 12 INT) came through for his team just two weeks after getting into a car accident that caused two fractures in his back. Newton threw for 201 yards with one touchdown and one interception, but he also rushed 12 times for 63 yards and another score. He threw for 292 yards with two touchdowns and two picks in a 19-17 loss to Atlanta on Nov. 16, but he has been much better in recent weeks. In the past two games that Newton has played, he’s thrown for 427 yards with 4 TD and 1 INT. He’s also rushed for 146 yards and two touchdowns in those games.


RB Jonathan Stewart (760 rush yards, 3 TD) has really run the ball well for Carolina recently, gaining 122 yards on 24 carries against Cleveland, and has now rushed for at least 75 yards in each of the past four games. This Falcons defense has allowed 25.5 PPG (8th in NFL) this season and Carolina should be able to move the ball effectively in this one. Its 10th-ranked defense (343.3 total YPG allowed) comes into this game hot after having given up only 13.3 PPG over the past three weeks.


The Falcons went into New Orleans last week and their defense was dominant, holding the Saints to just 14 points in a game that both teams needed to win. Atlanta’s defense forced four turnovers in the game, including an 88-yard fumble return touchdown by DE Osi Umenyiora (2.5 sacks) on the game’s final play that capped off an amazing performance. The Falcons will need to be on their game again in Week 17, as it will be tough to stop Cam Newton both through the air and on the ground. For the season, Atlanta ranks last in the NFL in both total defense (404.4 total YPG allowed) and passing defense (291.1 passing YPG allowed).


QB Matt Ryan (4,434 pass yards, 28 TD, 12 INT) threw for 322 yard with a touchdown and no picks in the win over New Orleans, giving him 15 TD with just 5 INT over the past eight games. He is on a tear for Atlanta and will need to have a big game against the Panthers if his team is going to make it to the postseason. Having a healthier WR Julio Jones (100 rec, 1,535 yards, 6 TD) would certainly help Ryan and the Falcons win this game. Jones came back from a hip injury last week and had seven catches for 107 yards. He is an elite receiver and will be a nightmare for the Panthers to defend if his hip is feeling better this week.


DETROIT LIONS (11-4) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (11-4)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Green Bay -7.5, Total: 47.5


The Lions and the Packers battle for first place in the NFC North when the teams square off at Lambeau Field on Sunday.


Detroit barely got by in a 20-14 victory as 10-point road favorites over the Bears in Chicago last week, but has now won four straight games SU, but has failed to cover in the past two. Meanwhile, Green Bay defeated the Bucs 20-3 as 11-point favorites in Tampa Bay. These NFC North rivals now play for the division crown, but the Packers are 7-0 at home on the season and have beaten the Lions in 23 straight home games, going 16-5 ATS during this longest streak of domination in NFL history.


When these teams met earlier in the year on Sept. 21, Detroit won 19-7 as a 1-point home favorite, marking its second straight win (SU and ATS) in this series, but Green Bay had won-and-covered in five straight in this series before that. The Packers are 7-18 ATS in home games after allowing four or less yards per play in their previous game since 1992, but the Lions are 1-10 ATS in road games after having won six or seven of their previous eight games in that timeframe. Four of the past five games played between these teams have finished Under the total.


The Lions had plenty of trouble with the Bears last week, trailing 14-10 heading into the fourth quarter. RB Joique Bell (800 rush yards, 7 TD) came up huge in that game, rushing 13 times for 74 yards (5.7 YPC) and a touchdown. He has now rushed for at least 62 yards in each of the past four games, and has a total of five touchdowns over the past four weeks as well. RB Reggie Bush (278 yards, 2 TD) was also excellent for Detroit, rushing for 54 yards and a touchdown and also catching six passes for 44 yards. This duo should be effective against a Packers defense that is allowing 120.5 rushing yards per game (22nd in NFL).


QB Matthew Stafford (4,040 pass yards, 19 TD, 12 INT) will need to get himself back on track after throwing for zero touchdowns and two picks against the Bears last week. He threw for just 246 yards with no touchdowns and two picks in the last meeting with the Packers and will need to take care of the ball in this game. WR Calvin Johnson (67 rec, 1,038 yards, 6 TD) had six catches for 82 yards in the last meeting with Green Bay, but he and Stafford will have to be much more effective if this team is going to break this long-lasting losing skid in Green Bay in order to win the NFC North division.


The Packers looked awful in a loss to the Bills two weeks ago, but they righted the ship in a win over the Bucs in Week 16. One reason they won that game was the excellent running of RB Eddie Lacy (1,039 rush yards, 9 TD). Lacy rushed for 99 yards and a touchdown in the win and will need to be just effective against the Lions. He had only 36 yards on 11 carries in their meeting earlier in the year, but his hard-nosed running can really set the tone for this offense. QB Aaron Rodgers (4,155 pass yards, 36 TD, 5 INT) threw for just 162 yards with one touchdown and no picks in the first meeting between these teams. He’ll need to be much better against the Lions this time around. In his past 11 meetings against the Lions, Rodgers has thrown for 247.4 yards per game with 20 touchdowns and only five interceptions.


WRs Jordy Nelson (92 rec, 1,433 yards, 13 TD) and Randall Cobb (87 rec, 1,207 yards, 10 TD) should be in for big games in this one. Green Bay is going to unleash its passing attack with this game being as important as it is, and Rodgers will look to both of his go-to-guys often. This defense is allowing just 228.1 passing yards per game (10th in NFL) and will need to keep that up with a meeting with Stafford and Calvin Johnson on Sunday.


ST. LOUIS RAMS (6-9) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (11-4)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Seattle -13, Total: 41.0


The Seahawks try to clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs when they host the Rams on Sunday.


After holding its three previous opponents to a combined 12 points, the St. Louis defense had no answer for the 6.5-point underdog Giants last week, allowing 514 total yards in a 37-27 home loss. Meanwhile, Seattle won its fifth straight game (SU and ATS) in a dominant 35-6 road victory over Arizona. During the win streak, the Seahawks have won each game by double figures with the average score being 23 to 7. But they were on the losing end of this first meeting back in Week 7, falling 28-26 to the 6.5-point underdog Rams. Prior to that defeat, Seattle had won three straight meetings in this series, but St. Louis covered in two of those losses. The Rams have not won at CenturyLink Field since Jan. 8, 2005, as the Seahawks have covered in seven of their nine home victories since that defeat.


There are some important betting trends for this matchup, as St. Louis is 11-3 ATS after a double-digit loss over the past three years, and Seattle is 3-15 ATS off a blowout win by 21+ points over a division rival since 1992. However, the Seahawks are 27-11 ATS when playing with six or less days of rest in that timeframe, and 8-1 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games over the past two seasons. While no new injuries have popped up for the Rams, Seattle could be without three players on Sunday with WR Jermaine Kearse (hamstring) doubtful and both C Max Unger (knee) and OT Russell Okung (lung) listed as questionable.


The Rams went three straight games without allowing a touchdown until surrendering 37 points in a loss to the Giants last week. Despite that big number, this defense allows only 22.3 PPG (T-14th in NFL) thanks to a top-notch red-zone defense (45% efficiency, 4th in league). St. Louis also allows just 108.9 rushing yards per game (14th in NFL), which should help them against a Seahawks team that loves to run the football. When these teams met earlier in the season, Seattle's running backs were held to 65 yards on 22 carries (3.0 YPC), but QB Russell Wilson ran for 106 yards on just seven attempts. The Rams best player in that Week 7 division win was RB Tre Mason (737 rush yards, 4 TD), who rushed 18 times for 85 yards (4.7 YPC) and a touchdown in that game, and he’ll be heavily featured in this one as well.


QB Shaun Hill (1,414 pass yards, 8 TD, 5 INT) will be under center when these teams play this time around. He threw for 290 yards with two touchdowns and one interception last week against the Giants and will need to take care of the football against this relentless Seattle secondary. WR Kenny Britt (44 rec, 710 yards, 3 TD) will be targeted often on Sunday, as he is coming off of a game against the Giants where he caught nine passes for 103 yards. At 6-foot-3, 223 pounds, Britt is a big target that has the size to win battles against the big Seattle cornerbacks.


The Seahawks are still fighting for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and are coming off one of their most dominant offensive performances of the season. QB Russell Wilson (3,236 pass yards, 20 TD, 6 INT; 842 rush yards, 7.5 YPC, 6 TD) threw for 339 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions against the Cardinals last week, while also rushing for 88 yards and a touchdown. In the Oct. 19 between these two teams, Wilson threw for 313 yards (8.7 YPA) with two touchdowns and no picks, and also rushed for 106 yards and a touchdown on just seven carries. He’ll need to be on his game again if the Seahawks are going to finish their season strong and give themselves home-field advantage throughout the postseason. WR Doug Baldwin (782 rec yards, 3 TD) has emerged as the go-to receiver in this passing offense, as he compiled 113 receiving yards last week, and also posted a season-high 123 yards in the Week 7 meeting with St. Louis.


RB Marshawn Lynch (1,246 rush yards, 12 TD) rushed for 113 yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals last week. Lynch was dealing with stomach issues prior to the game, so he should be much healthier heading Sunday's action. He'll have to do much better than his 2.9 yards per carry (18 rush, 53 yards) that he produced in the Oct. 19 loss in St. Louis. This Seahawks defense has allowed seven points or less in four of the past five games with the exception being a 24-14 win over a solid Philadelphia offense. For the season, Seattle leads the NFL in total defense (268.6 YPG) yards per play (4.7), scoring defense (16.5 PPG), and passing defense (184.5 YPG).

 

[CNOTES]

SNF - Bengals at Steelers


December 25, 2014




CINCINNATI BENGALS (10-4-1) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (10-5)


Kickoff: Sunday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Pittsburgh -3.5, Total: 48


The Bengals and Steelers battle for first place in the AFC North when the teams meet at Heinz Field on Sunday night.


Both red-hot teams secured playoff berths last week, but the winner of Sunday night's game captures the division and opens the postseason at home. Cincinnati is 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) in its past six contests, with four of those SU victories coming as an underdog, including Monday's 37-28 win over the Broncos. Pittsburgh won its third straight game (SU and ATS) last Sunday with a 20-12 victory over Kansas City, and is averaging 29.7 PPG and 408 total YPG during its win streak. These teams met just three weeks ago, when the Steelers pounded the Bengals in a 42-21 as 3-point road underdogs. Pittsburgh has now won-and-covered in two straight in this series, and has also won-and-covered five of its past seven games against Cincinnati at Heinz Field. Although both of these teams have explosive offenses, four of the past five meetings in this series have finished Under the total.


Over the past two seasons, the Bengals are 9-2 ATS as an underdog and 6-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The Steelers, meanwhile, are 16-7 ATS after the first month of the season in that same timeframe, and 28-14 ATS since 1992 in home games after having winning six or seven of their previous eight games. The big injury question mark in this game is Cincinnati star WR A.J. Green (arm), who says he'll be able to play. The only other Bengals injury of note is WR James Wright (knee), who isn't likely to suit up. Pittsburgh could still be missing two of its top players in the secondary in S Troy Polamalu (knee) and CB Ike Taylor (shoulder), who both sat out last week and are questionable for this showdown.


The Bengals had struggled in primetime games over the years, but they should have a major boost in confidence after beating the Broncos on Monday night. Rookie RB Jeremy Hill (1,024 rush yards, 9 TD) came up huge in the win, rushing 22 times for 147 yards and a touchdown. RB Giovani Bernard (672 rush yards, 5 TD) was also excellent for Cincy, rushing for 36 yards on eight carries (4.5 YPC) and also catching five passes for 45 yards and a touchdown. This duo could struggle against a Steelers defense that is allowing just 99.3 rushing yards per game (6th in NFL) this season. The pair carried the football only 14 times for 63 yards (4.5 YPC) in the Week 14 loss to Pittsburgh, but could see much more action with WR A.J. Green (61 rec, 959 yards, 6 TD) either out for this game or banged up. Green finished the victory over the Broncos with no catches on four targets, but he was unbelievable versus the Steelers three weeks ago with 11 catches for 224 yards, including an 81-yard touchdown reception.


QB Andy Dalton (3,154 pass yards, 17 TD, 15 INT) didn’t do anything special last week, throwing for 146 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT, but he played very well in Week 14 by completing 72.4% of his passes for 302 yards (10.4 YPA) with 2 TD and 0 INT. This Cincinnati defense may have allowed 28 points in Monday's win, but it did pick off Peyton Manning four times. For the season, the Bengals allow 360.2 total YPG (22nd in NFL), but hold opponents to just 21.1 PPG (T-9th in league). They’ll need to find a way to slow down Le’Veon Bell and Ben Roethlisberger in this one, something they could not do three weeks ago.


The Steelers are one of the hottest teams in football right now, beating the Chiefs 20-12 last week for their fourth SU win in five games. Ben Roethlisberger (4,635 yards, 30 TD, 8 INT) didn’t need to do much to win last week, throwing for just 220 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. But when he visited the Bengals in Week 14, he threw for 350 yards (9.2 YPA) with 3 TD and 0 INT in the 42-21 victory. If Roethlisberger is playing well, it likely means that top WR Antonio Brown (122 rec, 1,570 yards, 12 TD) has made his mark on the game. Brown caught seven passes for 72 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs and hauled in nine catches for 117 yards the last time he faced the Bengals.


If this passing game is able to get going, RB Le’Veon Bell (1,341 rush yards, 4.8 YPC, 8 TD) will have plenty of room to work with. Bell rushed for 63 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries against the Chiefs last week, but was unstoppable in Cincinnati earlier this month with 235 total yards (185 rushing, 50 receiving) and three touchdowns. Bell now has a five-game touchdown streak (8 TD in 5 games) and 2,115 total yards for the season. Defensively, Pittsburgh ranks 30th in the league in yards per play allowed (6.1), but has the NFL's lowest defensive time of possession (27:06) which has helped the team limit its past three opponent to 21 or fewer points. The Steelers produced six sacks last week versus the Chiefs, and will need to find a way to make Andy Dalton uncomfortable in this one.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL injury report for Sunday games

ARIZONA CARDINALS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

ARIZONA CARDINALS

--Out: QB Drew Stanton (knee)

--Doubtful: LB Larry Foote (knee)

--Questionable: S Deone Bucannon (knee), TE John Carlson (calf), G Jonathan Cooper (wrist), DT Dan Williams (foot)

--Probable: LB Lorenzo Alexander (knee), WR Jaron Brown (foot), DE Calais Campbell (hip), WR Larry Fitzgerald (knee), S Rashad Johnson (ankle), G Ted Larsen (shoulder), S Tyrann Mathieu (thumb), LB Matt Shaughnessy (shoulder)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

--Out: RB Carlos Hyde (ankle), WR Steve Johnson (knee), S Eric Reid (concussion)

--Questionable: CB Tramaine Brock (hamstring), LB Ahmad Brooks (thumb), CB Perrish Cox (shoulder), WR Bruce Ellington (hamstring)

--Probable: WR Michael Crabtree (knee), CB Chris Culliver (knee), WR Brandon Lloyd (groin), C Marcus Martin (illness), DE Justin Smith (back)


BUFFALO BILLS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

BUFFALO BILLS

--Doubtful: DT Marcell Dareus (knee), CB Stephon Gilmore (concussion)

--Probable: K Dan Carpenter (right groin), S Aaron Williams (hip)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

--Out: CB Alfonzo Dennard (hamstring), RB Jonas Gray (ankle)

--Questionable: LS Danny Aiken (finger), CB Kyle Arrington (hamstring), RB LeGarrette Blount (shoulder), CB Brandon Browner (groin), LB Jamie Collins (hip), G Dan Connolly (knee), WR Julian Edelman (thigh, concussion), T Cameron Fleming (ankle), LB Dont'a Hightower (shoulder), DE Chandler Jones (hip), WR Brandon LaFell (shoulder), DE Rob Ninkovich (heel), RB Shane Vereen (ankle), T Sebastian Vollmer (back), LB Chris White (ankle)

--Probable: QB Tom Brady (ankle)


CAROLINA PANTHERS at ATLANTA FALCONS

CAROLINA PANTHERS

--Questionable: LB A.J. Klein (knee)

--Probable: RB DeAngelo Williams (hand)

ATLANTA FALCONS

--Questionable: G Jon Asamoah (back), RB Steven Jackson (quadriceps), WR Julio Jones (hip), CB Robert McClain (illness), CB Josh Wilson (hamstring)

--Probable: K Matt Bryant (illness), WR Harry Douglas (foot), WR Roddy White (ankle)


CHICAGO BEARS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

CHICAGO BEARS

--Out: QB Jimmy Clausen (concussion), S Chris Conte (back), K Robbie Gould (right quadriceps)

--Questionable: DE Jared Allen (ribs), CB Al Louis-Jean (hamstring), DT Jay Ratliff (knee)

--Probable: DE David Bass (knee), DT Ego Ferguson (ankle), G Kyle Long (hip), WR Marquess Wilson (knee)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

--Out: LB Anthony Barr (knee), LB Brandon Watts (hamstring)

--Questionable: LB Chad Greenway (knee), TE Kyle Rudolph (ankle), WR Jarius Wright (back)

--Probable: RB Matt Asiata (foot), S Robert Blanton (ankle), S Antone Exum (knee), DT Sharrif Floyd (knee), TE Chase Ford (foot), T Mike Harris (foot), WR Greg Jennings (hamstring), G Charlie Johnson (ankle), S Andrew Sendejo (thumb)


CLEVELAND BROWNS at BALTIMORE RAVENS

CLEVELAND BROWNS

--Out: DT Ishmaa'ily Kitchen (fibula), QB Johnny Manziel (hamstring), DT Ahtyba Rubin (ankle), T Ryan Seymour (hamstring)

--Doubtful: QB Brian Hoyer (right shoulder, right biceps)

--Questionable: TE Gary Barnidge (rib), DE Desmond Bryant (thumb), CB Joe Haden (shoulder), WR Andrew Hawkins (thumb), LB Jabaal Sheard (foot), TE Ryan Taylor (elbow), CB K'Waun Williams (hamstring)

BALTIMORE RAVENS

--Doubtful: T Eugene Monroe (ankle)

--Questionable: DE Chris Canty (ankle, thigh), LB Terrell Suggs (back, thigh), RB Fitzgerald Toussaint (ribs)


DALLAS COWBOYS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS

DALLAS COWBOYS

--Out: LB Dekoda Watson (hamstring)

--Doubtful: T Doug Free (ankle)

--Probable: S Jeff Heath (thumb), G Zack Martin (ankle), LB Rolando McClain (knee, not injury related), RB DeMarco Murray (hand, illness), DT Josh Price-Brent (calf), QB Tony Romo (back)

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

--Doubtful: DE Jason Hatcher (knee)

--Questionable: DE Chris Baker (toe, elbow), DE Stephen Bowen (ankle, illness), LB Gabe Miller (ankle), LB Keenan Robinson (knee), T Trent Williams (shoulder)

--Probable: CB Bashaud Breeland (thigh), DT Barry Cofield (shoulder), T Tom Compton (knee), LB Will Compton (shoulder), QB Robert Griffin (right shoulder), LB Jackson Jeffcoat (calf), C Kory Lichtensteiger (stinger), RB Darrel Young (ankle)


DETROIT LIONS at GREEN BAY PACKERS

DETROIT LIONS

--Out: DT Nick Fairley (knee)

--Probable: RB Joique Bell (Achilles), WR Calvin Johnson (ankle), CB Mohammed Seisay (hamstring)

GREEN BAY PACKERS

--Out: CB Davon House (shoulder)

--Probable: G T.J. Lang (ankle), LB Clay Matthews (biceps), LB Mike Neal (abdomen), QB Aaron Rodgers (calf), G Josh Sitton (toe)


INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at TENNESSEE TITANS

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

--Out: TE Dwayne Allen (knee), T Gosder Cherilus (groin), LB Bjoern Werner (shoulder)

--Questionable: LB Jerrell Freeman (hamstring), WR T.Y. Hilton (hamstring), G Joe Reitz (ankle)

--Probable: DE Cory Redding (knee), G Hugh Thornton (knee), LB Erik Walden (knee)

TENNESSEE TITANS

--Questionable: DT Sammie Lee Hill (foot), T Terren Jones (concussion), T Taylor Lewan (ankle), QB Zach Mettenberger (right shoulder), T Byron Stingily (ankle), LB Kamerion Wimbley (hamstring)

--Probable: LB Zaviar Gooden (hamstring)


JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at HOUSTON TEXANS

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

--Doubtful: DT Roy Miller (knee)

--Probable: QB Blake Bortles (foot), C Luke Bowanko (wrist), DE Andre Branch (groin), DE Chris Clemons (knee), RB Toby Gerhart (ribs), WR Cecil Shorts (shoulder), WR Tommy Streeter (abdomen)

HOUSTON TEXANS

--Out: TE Garrett Graham (ankle), LB Mike Mohamed (concussion), WR DeVier Posey (calf), QB Tom Savage (knee)

--Probable: G Brandon Brooks (knee, ankle), T Tyson Clabo (shoulder), LB Brian Cushing (ankle), TE C.J. Fiedorowicz (shoulder), RB Arian Foster (not injury related), WR DeAndre Hopkins (wrist), CB Kareem Jackson (back), WR Andre Johnson (not injury related), CB Johnathan Joseph (ankle), LB Whitney Mercilus (back, finger), DT Ryan Pickett (groin), G Xavier Su'a-Filo (back), LB Jeff Tarpinian (knee)


NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

--Out: T Terron Armstead (neck)

--Questionable: DT John Jenkins (abdomen)

--Probable: S Jamarca Sanford (hamstring), T Zach Strief (neck)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

--Doubtful: LB Mason Foster (Achilles)

--Questionable: CB Isaiah Frey (ankle), S Dashon Goldson (shoulder), WR Robert Herron (hip), WR Solomon Patton (foot), RB Bobby Rainey (wrist)


NEW YORK JETS at MIAMI DOLPHINS

NEW YORK JETS

--Out: S Rontez Miles (shin)

--Questionable: DT Damon Harrison (illness), WR Percy Harvin (ankle, ribs), S Jaiquawn Jarrett (shoulder), S Dawan Landry (illness), C Nick Mangold (ankle, finger), CB Darrin Walls (shoulder), DE Muhammad Wilkerson (toe, illness)

--Probable: S Antonio Allen (hand), G Willie Colon (knee), K Nick Folk (right hip), RB Chris Ivory (hamstring), RB Chris Johnson (knee)

MIAMI DOLPHINS

--Questionable: LB Jelani Jenkins (foot), DE Derrick Shelby (ankle), G Dallas Thomas (foot)

--Probable: TE Charles Clay (hamstring, knee), CB Cortland Finnegan (ankle, knee), LB Jonathan Freeny (hamstring), S Don Jones (shoulder), LB Koa Misi (hamstring, knee), DT Earl Mitchell (back), DT Jared Odrick (ankle), RB Daniel Thomas (knee), WR Mike Wallace (back)


OAKLAND RAIDERS at DENVER BRONCOS

OAKLAND RAIDERS

--Out: WR Vincent Brown (groin), CB Chimdi Chekwa (hamstring), WR Denarius Moore (knee, ankle)

--Questionable: CB T.J. Carrie (ankle), LB Khalil Mack (hamstring), T Menelik Watson (foot, ankle)

--Probable: CB Ras-I Dowling (hamstring)

DENVER BRONCOS

--Out: LB Brandon Marshall (foot)

--Questionable: T Paul Cornick (toe), WR Emmanuel Sanders (hip), S T.J. Ward (neck)

--Probable: RB C.J. Anderson (ankle), LB Lamin Barrow (illness), S David Bruton (calf), T Ryan Clady (thigh), T Chris Clark (back), RB Ronnie Hillman (foot), QB Peyton Manning (thigh), C Will Montgomery (knee), C Manuel Ramirez (illness), TE Jacob Tamme (foot), WR Demaryius Thomas (ankle, hip), TE Julius Thomas (ankle), RB Juwan Thompson (hip, knee), DT Mitch Unrein (illness), CB Kayvon Webster (shoulder), DE Derek Wolfe (knee)


PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at NEW YORK GIANTS

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

--Out: QB Nick Foles (collarbone)

--Questionable: CB Bradley Fletcher (hip)

--Probable: DT Beau Allen (shoulder), DE Brandon Bair (knee), TE Trey Burton (back), LB Trent Cole (hand), LB Mychal Kendricks (ankle), S Chris Maragos (hamstring), WR Jordan Matthews (knee)

NEW YORK GIANTS

--Out: LB Devon Kennard (toe)

--Questionable: RB Andre Williams (shoulder)

--Probable: LB Paul Hazel (hamstring), RB Rashad Jennings (ankle), LB Jameel McClain (knee)


SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

--Out: RB Ryan Mathews (ankle), P Mike Scifres (shoulder)

--Doubtful: WR Keenan Allen (ankle, shoulder)

--Questionable: G Chris Watt (ankle)

--Probable: DT Corey Liuget (ankle), QB Philip Rivers (chest, back), CB Shareece Wright (concussion)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

--Out: CB Phillip Gaines (illness), QB Alex Smith (spleen)

--Questionable: WR Dwayne Bowe (shoulder), RB Jamaal Charles (hamstring, ankle), G Zach Fulton (foot, toe)

--Probable: TE Anthony Fasano (knee), LB Tamba Hali (knee), LB Josh Martin (hand), LB Joe Mays (knee)


ST. LOUIS RAMS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

ST. LOUIS RAMS

--Doubtful: CB E.J. Gaines (concussion)

--Probable: CB Janoris Jenkins (back), DE Chris Long (not injury related), C Scott Wells (back)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

--Out: DE Demarcus Dobbs (ankle), WR Jermaine Kearse (hamstring)

--Questionable: TE Cooper Helfet (ribs), WR Chris Matthews (hamstring), CB Tharold Simon (shoulder), C Max Unger (knee, ankle)

--Probable: RB Marshawn Lynch (back), TE Tony Moeaki (shoulder), T Russell Okung (chest)


CINCINNATI BENGALS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS on Sunday night

CINCINNATI BENGALS

--Questionable: CB Adam Jones (illness), LB Emmanuel Lamur (hamstring), CB Chris Lewis-Harris (illness), S Reggie Nelson (illness), CB Terence Newman (illness), WR James Wright (knee)

--Probable: G Clint Boling (illness), LB Chris Carter (knee), CB Darqueze Dennard (shin), DE Wallace Gilberry (hamstring), WR A.J. Green (biceps), K Mike Nugent (illness)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

--Questionable: TE Michael Palmer (groin), S Troy Polamalu (knee), CB Ivan Taylor (shoulder, forearm)

--Probable: T Kelvin Beachum (back), TE Matt Spaeth (elbow), LB Vince Williams (ankle)

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Sunday, December 28

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Sunday Night Football: Bengals at Steelers
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Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 47.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals earned a playoff slot by knocking off Denver on Monday night, but they have plenty to play for when they visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night in a showdown for the AFC North title. Cincinnati has to overcome a short week following Monday's win and find a way to avenge a 21-point home loss to the Steelers on Dec. 7. “I wouldn’t want it any other way,” Bengals defensive end Wallace Gilberry said. “It’s always good to be playing meaningful football in December.”

Pittsburgh has won three straight and seven of nine to return to the postseason following a two-year hiatus that featured consecutive 8-8 records. The Steelers scored 25 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to stun Cincinnati three weeks ago and will claim the No. 3 seed with a victory. Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton missed practice Wednesday and is among a number of key players battling the flu while Pro Bowl wideout A.J. Green is questionable due to an arm injury.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened Big Ben's squad as field goal favorites. After some slight movement upwards to -4, the line is currently sitting at -3.5.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (10-4-1): Cincinnati still has an outside shot at earning the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye if Denver somehow loses at home to Oakland, but the biggest concern is the health of Green, who torched the Steelers for 11 catches for 224 yards and a TD earlier this month. Green reported improvement after injuring his arm early in Monday's victory but did not have a catch in that game and was unable to practice Wednesday. Rookie running back Jeremy Hill has rumbled for 295 yards and three touchdowns in the last two wins, but he was limited to 46 yards on eight carries by Pittsburgh. The Bengals picked off Peyton Manning four times Monday, but they were shredded for 543 yards by the Steelers in earlier matchup.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (10-5): Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has established career highs with 4,635 yards and 30 touchdowns (against only eight interceptions) and has the league's most consistent weapon in wide receiver Antonio Brown, who leads the NFL with 122 catches and 1,570 yards. Running back Le'Veon Bell provides outstanding balance to the offense, rushing for 1,341 yards and eight scores to go with 77 receptions and three more touchdowns. Bell has been limited to a combined 110 yards rushing over the last two games, but he piled up 235 total yards and three scores against the Bengals in Week 14. Pittsburgh is vulnerable to the pass, ranking 27th with an average of 255.2 yards allowed, and has only nine interceptions.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 7-0 ATS against a team with a winning record
* Under is 5-0 in the Bengals' last five road games
* Over is 6-1 in the Steelers' last seven home games
* Road team is 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 meetings

CONSENSUS: At the time of writing, 56 percent of users were on the black and gold to cover the spread.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Sunday, December 28


Chargers yet to cover vs. a division opponent

The San Diego Chargers will try to cover the spread against a division rival from the AFC West for the first time this season and stamp their ticket to the postseason when they visit the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday.

The Chargers are 0-5 against the spread so far against the AFC West and Sunday will be their final chance to do so as 1-point road dogs against the Chiefs.

Kansas City will be without starting quarterback Alex Smith due to lacerated spleen.


Colts cashing tickets against poor teams

The Indianapolis Colts have been very successful cashing tickets against teams with a losing record, going 18-3 against the spread in those instances.

The Colts, who can't change their playoff standing, are 7.5-point favorites against the two-win Tennessee Titans. The Colts have also covered the spread in the last six meetings with the Titans.


Cowboys try for perfect road record

The Dallas Cowboys will try to end their season with a win in Washington and end their season a perfect 8-0 on the road.

The Cowboys have also been a great bet on the road, going 6-1 against the spread and are currently 3.5-point road favorites against Washington.

 

[CNOTES]

Where the action is: Sunday's biggest NFL Week 17 line moves

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots - Open: -5, Move: -4.5, Move: -5

Before last week against Oakland, the Buffalo Bills had to win their remaining two games and get some help to have any hope at attaining one of AFC Wild Card spots. After a 26-24 loss in the Black Hole, the Bills head into the matchup just playing out the schedule while the perennially competitive Pats will view this one as a warm up game before the real season starts.

"This is a very hairy game for us," said Kaminsky. "New England doesn't need to win, so the issue we're facing is if Bill Belichick will rest his starters. We opened the Pats at -5 which is where it currently sits, but if news breaks that Brady and Gronkowski will be on the sideline I expect that number to go down to -3 or -3.5."


Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers - Open: -3.5, Move: -4, Move: -3.5

Both of these AFC North rivals have already secured playoff spots, but the all-important home field advantage is on the line as the winner of this matchup will be crowned division champions. The hated rivals met just three weeks ago in Cincy where the black and gold hammered Andy Dalton and company 42-21 while easily covering as 3-point dogs.

"It's quite possible the Bengals could find themselves in a letdown spot in the wake of their enormous victory over Denver last Monday," Kaminsky told Covers. "We have Pittsburgh at -3.5, but the public will be on Big Ben's squad in this one, so I think there's a shot we close this game at -4."


Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens - Open: -8.5, Move: -13.5

Have the Cleveland Browns asked you to play quarterback yet? Check your cell phone, you may have a missed call from their GM Ray Farmer. When "Johnny Football" was ruled out for the season following a hamstring injury he suffered against Carolina in Week 16, the man who lost his job to Manziel - Brian Hoyer - has also been deemed ineligible to play, meaning undrafted rookie signal caller Connor Shaw will make his first NFL start versus Baltimore Sunday.

"We opened the Browns as +8.5 dogs but when it was announced Hoyer wasn't going to play, we re-opened them at +13," states Kaminsky. "Cleveland is going to have a tough time putting points on the board. Baltimore needs to win to reach the playoffs, but we've seen so many clubs over the years in their spot that don't come through in the last week with so much on the line. On the other side of the coin, that's a huge pointspread. It's tough to lay that many points in the NFL."


Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers - Open: -6, Move: -6.5

In what's been the worst kept secret in the league this year, Sunday will mark the end of the Jim Harbaugh era in San Francisco. Deep postseason runs have become the norm for the Niners over the last few seasons, but they'll be watching from the couch come January this time around following a disappointing campaign which has been dominated by rumors surrounding the head coach's looming departure.

"Our book opened San Fran at -6, but now have them as 6.5-point chalk," Kaminsky said. "This is another tricky game for us. The Cardinals are officially in the playoffs, but they need to win this game and have the Seahawks lose to the Rams in order to clinch the NFC West. Since both the Cards and Seahawks play at the same time, that's working in our favor. However, if Seattle is blowing out St. Louis in the first half, you have to wonder if Bruce Arians will rest his main guys, which could have a huge impact on the second half line. Considering how ravaged Arizona has been by injuries this season that may not be a bad idea, but it's all up in the air as of now."


Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings - Open: -7, Move: -6

After a short-lived benching it's once again Jay Cutler time in the Windy City, but you won't be seeing much excitement from Bears fans. Chicago's uninspiring season took another turn once head coach Marc Trestman benched the Vanderbilt product in the wake of the Bears' Week 15 loss to the Saints. Due to a concussion suffered by Jimmy Clausen last week, Cutler will lead the Monsters of the Midway onto the field Sunday before they enter an offseason with more questions than answers surrounding the team.

"We opened Minnesota at -7 with the assumption that Clausen would start," said Kaminsnky. "When it was announced Cutler would be under center, that line dropped to -6. The Bears are a team in disarray, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Vikes cover this number with ease."

 

[CNOTES]

Carolina at Atlanta

Any team where total is between 42.5-49 -an average team (+/- 3 PPG Differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG Differential) after scoring 30+ Points the last game. (40-11 Under) PLAY = Under the Total

Cleveland vs. Baltimore

Home favorites of 3.5 to -10 points - after having won 2 of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing losing team in 2nd half season. (20-54 ATS) PLAY = Cleveland against the spread

Dallas vs. Washington

Road favorites - an average defensive team (18 to 23 ppg) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) after allowing 9 points or less last game. (7-28 ATS) PLAY = Washington ATS

Indianapolis vs. Tennessee

Underdogs or picks - after 7 or more consecutive losses in the 2nd half of the season (95-48 ATS) PLAY = Tennessee ATS

Detroit vs. Green Bay

Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 pts - good team - outscoring opponents 4+ pts/game after allowing 3 pts or less in the first half of the game (76-31 Over) PLAY = Over the total


Play against favorites (Seattle) revenging a loss against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite. This situations record is 36-9 over the last 10 seasons (80.0% +26.1 units)

Play against - Home teams (Minnesota) off a road loss, marginal loosing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%).
This situations record is 46-14 since 1983 (76.7% +30.6 units)

Play on - Road underdogs or pick (Arizona) in a game involving 2 average teams (+/- 3 PPG Differential) after scoring 14 or less points the last game. This situations record is 90-41 since 1983 (68.7% +44.9 units)


Betting System Jacksonville vs. Houston
Home favorites of 3.5-10 points after winning 2 of their last 3 games, marginal winning team (51%-60%) playing a loosing team in the 2nd half of the season (20-54 ATS) PLAY =Jacksonville against the spread

Betting System San DIego vs. Kansas City
any team where the total is 42.5-49 points in a game involving 2 average offenses teams (18-23PPG) after 8+ games after playing a game where 50+ total points were scored. (93-40 Under) PLAY = Under total

NY Jets vs. Miami
any team against the total - after going over the total by 35 or more points in their last 5 games versus division opponents (79-38 Under) PLAY = Under the total

Chicago vs. Minnesota
Home teams off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25%-40%) (14-46 ATS) PLAY = Chicago ATS

Buffalo vs. New England
Favorites of 10.5 or more points after 3 consecutive wins in the 2nd half of the season (15-41 ATS) PLAY = Buffalo ATS


Detroit 0-11 ATS (-12.1 units) against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game in the 2nd half of the season since 1992.
The average score was Detroit 16.5 Opponent 34.7 PLAY = Green Bay

Buffalo is 13-1 ATS (+11.9 units) off a road loss over the last 3 seasons.
The Average score was Buffalo 26.1 opponent 17.5 PLAY = Buffalo

Indianapolis 9-0 ATS (+9 units) vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 points or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was Indianapolis 25.2 Opponent 12.4 PLAY = Indianapolis

 

[CNOTES]

Philadelphia Vs. NY Giants
Underdogs or Pick - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season.
(42-16 ATS) PLAY = Philadelphia

Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh
Any team off an upset win as a home underdog with a winning record on the season (13-34 ATS) PLAY = Pittsburgh ATS

New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay
Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points slow starting team outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 17 points or less in 4 straight games.
(82-41 ATS) PLAY = Tampa Bay

Arizona vs. San Francisco
Road underdogs or Pick in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG Differential) after scoring 14 points or less their last game.
(90-41 ATS) PLAY = Arizona ATS

St. Louis vs. Seattle
Favorites revenging a loss against opponent after 2 consecutive covers, as a favorite (9-36 ATS) PLAY = St. Louis

Oakland vs. Denver
Any team revenging a loss where the opponent scored 28 or more points, a terrible team (<25%) playing a team with a winning record
(37-13 ATS) PLAY = Oakland ATS

 

[CNOTES]

SuperContest Picks - Week 17

December 27, 2014

The Westgate SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,403 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $736,575, plus the top 30 finishers will collect cash prizes too.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon.

Week 17 Picks (# of Selections)

1) San Diego +3 (456)
2) Carolina +4 (355)
3) Pittsburgh -3.5 (302)
4) Green Bay -7.5 (274)
5) Washington +6 (267)

Week 16 Results

1) Detroit (-6.5) - LOSS
2) Carolina (+1.5) - WIN
3) Minnesota (+6.5) - WIN
4) Denver (-3) - LOSS
5) Arizona (+8) - LOSS

Week 15 Results

1) Buffalo (+4.5) - WIN
2) Dallas (+3) - WIN
3) New England (-7.5) - WIN
4) Indianapolis (-6.5) - WIN
5) San Francisco (+10) - PUSH

Week 14 Results

1) New England (-3.5) - WIN
2) Miami (-2.5) - LOSS
3) Seattle (+1) - WIN
4) St. Louis (-2.5) - WIN
5) Indianapolis (-3.5) - LOSS

Week 13 Results

1) Arizona (-2.5) - LOSS
2) N.Y. Giants (-2.5) - LOSS
3) Baltimore (-5.5) - LOSS
4) Cincinnati (-3.5) - LOSS
5) Buffalo (-2.5) - WIN

Week 12 Results

1) Seattle (-6.5) - WIN
2) Dallas (-3.5) - LOSS
3) New England (-7) - WIN
4) N.Y. Jets (+4.5) - LOSS
5) Baltimore (+3.5) - WIN

Week 11 Results

1) New England (+3) - WIN
2) Kansas City (-1.5) - WIN
3) Green Bay (-6) - WIN
4) Cleveland (-3) - LOSS
5) Detroit (+2.5) - LOSS

Week 10 Results

1) Detroit (-2.5) - WIN
2) Green Bay (-7) - WIN
3) New Orleans (-5) - LOSS
4) Kansas City (-2) - WIN
5) N.Y. Jets (+5) - WIN

Week 9 Results

1) Arizona (+3.5) - WIN
2) San Diego (+1.5) - LOSS
3) Philadelphia (-2) - WIN
4) New England (+3) - WIN
5) Baltimore (-1) - LOSS

Week 8 Results

1) Indianapolis (-3) - LOSS
2) Kansas City (-6.5) - WIN
3) Houston (-2) - WIN
4) Baltimore (+1) - LOSS
5) New Orleans (-1.5) - WIN

Week 7 Results

1) Kansas City (+4.5) - WIN
2) Indianapolis (-3) - WIN
3) N.Y. Giants (+6.5) - LOSS
4) Seattle (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Baltimore (-6.5) - WIN

Week 6 Results

1) Miami (+3.5) - WIN
2) N.Y. Giants (+3) - LOSS
3) Buffalo (+3) - LOSS
4) San Diego (-7) - LOSS
5) Denver (-8.5) - WIN

Week 5 Results

1) Denver (-7) - WIN
2) Baltimore (+3.5) - LOSS
3) Cincinnati (-1) - LOSS
4) San Diego (-6.5) - WIN
5) Chicago (+2.5) - LOSS

Week 4 Results

1) Green Bay (-1.5) - WIN
2) Kansas City (+3.5) - WIN
3) Atlanta (-3) - LOSS
4) Philadelphia (+5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS

Week 3 Results

1) Washington +6.5 - WIN
2) Indianapolis -6.5 - WIN
3) N.Y. Giants +2 - WIN
4) Cincinnati -6.5 - WIN
5) Dallas -1.5 - WIN

Week 2 Results

1) New England (-3) - WIN
2) San Diego (+6) - WIN
3) Buffalo (+1) - WIN
4) San Francisco (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Detroit (+3) - LOSS

Week 1 Results

1) Tampa Bay (-2) - LOSS
2) Pittsburgh (-6.5) - LOSS
3) Tennessee (+3.5) - WIN
4) Detroit (-5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS

2014 SUPERCONTEST WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Overall Percentage
1 2-3 2-3 40%
2 3-2 5-5 50%
3 5-0 10-5 67%
4 3-2 13-7 65%
5 2-3 15-10 60%
6 2-3 17-13 57%
7 3-2 20-15 57%
8 3-2 23-17 58%
9 3-2 26-19 57%
10 4-1 30-20 60%
11 3-2 33-22 60%
12 3-2 36-24 60%
13 1-4 37-28 57%
14 3-2 40-30 57%
15 4-0-1 44-30-1 59%
16 2-3 46-33-1 58%
17 - - -

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 17


December 27, 2014


Week 16 Recap


The ‘under’ has gone 22-9-1 the last two weeks, which includes a 9-6-1 mark in Week 16. Most of the damage has come in the early games played on Sunday. Bettors have watched the ‘under’ go 14-3 in the 1:00 p.m. ET starts. Through 240 NFL regular season games, the ‘under’ has gone 125-113-2.


Week 17 Approach


Next to the opening week of the season, it’s fair to say that Week 17 of the NFL is one of the hardest to handicap.


WEEK 17 TOTAL RESULTS (2009-2013)
Year Over/Under
2013 6-10
2012 8-8
2011 9-7
2010 7-9
2009 9-7


Based on the above table, the ‘under’ has gone 41-39 that last five seasons in Week 17, which could make you believe that we’ll see a few more ‘over’ tickets this Sunday.


There are some meaningless games, four to be exact, that have no playoff implications. Even though these guys are professionals, I’d still tread lightly when handicapping the below tilts.


N.Y. Jets at Miami
Chicago at Minnesota
Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants
New Orleans at Tampa Bay


System Strong


The Giants blasted the Rams 37-27 last week and the ‘over’ (43.5) connected in the third quarter. The victory snapped a two-game losing skid for bettors following the “Thursday Night Total” system. For those new to VI and this weekly piece, all you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.


This angle has gone 10-4 (69%) this season and 25-6-1 (80%) dating back to last season.


Bettors looking to ride the angle one more time will turn their attention to the Jacksonville-Houston matchup since the Jaguars hosted the Titans on Thursday in Week 16.


Divisional Battles


Total bettors have seen 80 divisional outcomes this season with the final 16 to be played this weekend.


2014 DIVISIONAL TOTAL RESULTS


AFC East AFC West


1st Result 2nd Result 1st Result 2nd Result
BUF-MIA Under BUF-MIA Under DEN-KC Under DEN-KC Under
BUF-NE Over BUF-NE Week 17 DEN-OAK Over DEN-OAK Week 17
BUF-NYJ Over BUG-NYJ Under DEN-SD Over DEN-SD Under
MIA-NE Over MIA-NE Over KC-OAK Over KC-OAK Over
MIA-NYJ Under MIA-NYJ Week 17 KC-SD Over KC-SD Week 17
NE-NYJ Over NE-NYJ Under OAK-SD Over OAK-SD Under
O/U 4-2 O/U 1-3 O/U 5-1 O/U 1-3




AFC North AFC South


1st Result 2nd Result 1st Result 2nd Result
BAL-CIN Under BAL-CIN Over HOU-IND Over HOU-IND Under
BAL-CLE Over BAL-CLE Week 17 HOU-JAX Under HOU-JAX Week 17
BAL-PIT Under BAL-PIT Over HOU-TEN Over HOU-TEN Over
CIN-CLE Under CIN-CLE Under IND-JAX Over IND-JAX Under
CIN-PIT Over CIN-PIT Week 17 IND-TEN Over IND-TEN Week 17
CLE-PIT Over CLE-PIT Under JAX-TEN Under JAX-TEN Under
O/U 3-3 O/U 2-2 O/U 5-1 O/U 1-3




NFC East NFC West


1st Result 2nd Result 1st Result 2nd Result
DAL-NYG Over DAL-NYG Over ARI-SF Under ARI-SF Week 17
DAL-PHI Under DAL-PHI Over ARI-SEA Under ARI-SEA Over
DAL-WAS Under DAL-WAS Week 17 ARI-STL Over ARI-STL Under
NYG-PHI Under NYG-PHI Week 17 SF-SEA Under SF-SEA Under
NYG-WAS Over NYG-WAS Under SF-STL Over SF-STL Under
PHI-WAS Over PHI-WAS Push SEA-STL Over SEA-STL Week 17
O/U 3-3 O/U 2-1-1 O/U 3-3 O/U 1-3




NFC North NFC South


1st Result 2nd Result 1st Result 2nd Result
CHI-DET Over CHI-DET Under ATL-CAR Under ATL-CAR Week 17
CHI-GB Over CHI-GB Over ATL-NO Over ATL-NO Under
CHI-MIN Under CHI-MIN Week 17 ATL-TB Over ATL-TB Under
DET-GB Under DET-GB Week 17 CAR-NOR Under CAR-NOR Over
DET-MIN Under DET-MIN Under CAR-TB Under CAR-TB Under
GB-MIN Over GB-MIN Under NO-TB Over NO-TB Week 17
O/U 3-3 O/U 1-3 O/U 3-3 O/U 1-3


The ‘over’ has gone 22-18 in AFC divisional matchups while the ‘under’ has produced a 22-17-1 record in NFC clashes.


Neither of those trends stand out but if you look at the above table, you can definitely make an assumption that teams play better defense in the rematches.


In the 1st meeting this season, the ‘over’ went 29-19 (60%) in the first 48 divisional matchups. Through 32 rematches, the ‘under’ has gone 21-10-1 (67%) in the 2nd encounter.


We’re not going to see a 16-0 record to the ‘under’ this Sunday but if you’re leaning one way or another, make a note of these stats.

Head-to-Head Trends


There are some pending total streaks in certain matchups that you should keep an eye on in Week 17.


Detroit at Green Bay: Under 4-1 last 5
Something has to give in this game. The Lions have watched the ‘under’ go 7-0 on the road this season while the Packers have seen the ‘over’ go 6-1 at Lambeau. Green Bay is on a 4-1 run to the ‘under.’


Carolina at Atlanta: Under 3-0 last 3
Expecting a tight game here and the Falcons offense doesn’t scare me without a healthy Julio Jones at WR. Carolina’s defense has been stepping up in its last three games, allowing a total of 40 points.


Buffalo at New England: Over 6-1 last 7
Despite going ‘over’ last week at Oakland, Buffalo has been a great ‘under’ (12-3) bet all season. New England on a 4-1 run to the ‘under’ which is attributed to its underrated defense.


N.Y. Jets at Miami: Under 4-0 last 4, 6-1 last 7
I’d like to believe Rex Ryan gets a great effort in his final game with the Jets. Miami has surrendered 28, 41 and 35 points the last three weeks. Hard to believe New York gets in that neighborhood.


Chicago at Minnesota: Under 6-1 last 6
QB Jay Cutler returns to the Bears starting lineup and that reason alone makes me pass on this matchup.


San Diego at Kansas City: Over 4-1 last 5
Total dropped from 42 ½ to 40 after Chiefs QB Alex Smith was ruled out, which could be a good thing for ‘over’ bettors. Chase Daniel steps in at QB for Kansas City and he played against the Chargers in Week 17 last year, losing 27-24 on the road.


St. Louis at Seattle: Under 4-1 last 5, 7-2 last 9
The Rams defeated the Seahawks 28-26 in Week 7 in a game that featured some great trickery by St. Louis special teams unit. Seattle defense has allowed 33 points last five games albeit against average quarterbacks, which is what the Rams have under center.


Cleveland at Baltimore: Under 7-2-1 last 10
During this 10-game span, the most combined points scored was 44, which came in first meeting this season thanks to a game-winning FG by the Ravens (23-21). Rookie QB Connor Shaw starting for Cleveland has watched this total go from 42 to 39.


Under the Lights


The Sunday and Monday night games both went ‘over’ in Week 16 which pushed the season ‘over’ record to 33-16 (67%) in 49 games played under the lights this season. I’m surprised this trend didn’t taper off like last season when the ‘over’ went 28-22 in the primetime games.


We only have one left and it takes place Sunday when Cincinnati and Pittsburgh clash at Heinz Field. The Steelers ran past the Bengals 42-21 in the first encounter on Dec. 7 as the 63 points easily jumped ‘over’ the closing total of 47 ½.


The total for the rematch is a tad higher (48) and it’s a real tough game to handicap. Pittsburgh has been a great ‘over’ bet at home (6-1) this season, plus you can’t ignore how many points the Steelers have averaged 28.6 PPG in their five night games this season. Conversely, the Bengals defense has given up 36 points in their last four road games, all wins too.


Lastly, this regular season finale hasn’t been producing shootouts or quality games, which is the sole purpose of the flex-scheduling.


2013 – Philadelphia 24 at Dallas 22 (Under 54 ½)
2012 – Washington 28 vs. Dallas 18 (Under 48)
2011 – N.Y. Giants 31 vs. Dallas 14 (Under 48)
2010 – Seattle 16 vs. St. Louis 6 (Under 42 ½)
2009 – N.Y. Jets 37 vs. Cincinnati 0 (Over 33 ½)
2008 – San Diego 52 vs. Denver 21 (Over 50)


Five of the last six finales that have been flexed to the Sunday Night spot have been decided by double digits. Even though the Bengals and Steelers have both shown the ability to light up the scoreboard, I believe both coaches will call a tight game and bleed the clock for the all-important victory.


Fearless Predictions


For the second straight week I managed to select the opposite side of one of the few ‘over’ tickets played in the early games. Along with that loss and the prop setbacks, the deficit dropped the bankroll to $270 on the season. Week 17 is never easy but I like the card. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy New Year to you and yours!


Best Over: Jacksonville-Houston 40


Best Under: Carolina-Atlanta 47 ½


Best Team Total: Under Buffalo 19 ½


Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Under 51 N.Y. Jets-Miami
Under 56 Detroit-Green Bay
Under 57 Cincinnati-Pittsburgh

 

[CNOTES]

Week 17 NFC Showdowns


December 27, 2014


Lions at Packers (-7 ½, 47) – 4:25 PM EST – FOX


The NFC North title is on the line at Lambeau Field as both Detroit and Green Bay would lock up a first-round bye with a victory. Each team enters Sunday’s action at 11-4 on the season, as the Packers are seeking their fourth consecutive division championship, while looking for their best finish since going 15-1 in 2012. Meanwhile, the Lions are attempting to capture their first division title since way back in 1993, when the division was still known as the NFC Central.


Detroit rebounded from back-to-back losses at Arizona and New England in mid-November to win four straight games. Jim Caldwell’s club has allowed 17 points or less in each of those four victories, capped off by a 20-14 triumph at Chicago, but the Lions failed to cash as 10-point road favorites. In fact, Detroit hasn’t yielded more than 17 points in any of its five divisional victories this season, accounting for four ‘unders.’


Green Bay bounced back from a Week 15 loss at Buffalo to cruise past Tampa Bay last Sunday, 20-3 to cash as 11 ½-point road favorites. The Packers held the Bucs to just 109 yards of total offense, while Aaron Rodgers threw for 318 yards and a touchdown to even up Green Bay’s road record at 4-4. Since starting the season with three ‘overs’ in their first four away games, Mike McCarthy’s team finished the road slate with three consecutive ‘unders.’

The last time these teams met up at Ford Field in Week 3, the Lions took care of the Packers, 19-7 to cash as short one-point favorites. Detroit held the ball for over 38 minutes, while scoring out of the gate with a Don Carey 40-yard fumble return for a touchdown three minutes into the contest. Rodgers was limited to 162 yards through the air, while the Packers’ ground game racked up just 76 yards. The Packers intercepted Matthew Stafford twice, but Reggie Bush put the game away with a 26-yard touchdown scamper in the fourth quarter.


If Detroit wants to wrap up this division title, it heads to its house of horrors, as the Lions last won at Lambeau Field way back in December 1991. That season, the Lions grabbed the division championship, but Detroit is looking for its first cover in Green Bay since 2010 as 14 ½-point ‘dogs in a 28-26 setback.


The Packers are unbeaten at home this season at 7-0, while posting a 5-1-1 ATS mark at Lambeau Field. The ‘over’ has hit in six of seven home contests, while owning an impressive 11-1 SU record in their past 12 regular season finales dating back to 2003. The Lions have cashed the ‘under’ in all seven road games this season, while looking to win back-to-back road contests for the first time since 2011.


Panthers at Falcons (-3, 47 ½) – 4:25 PM EST - CBS


The slugfest to the finish inside the NFC South takes place at the Georgia Dome as the winner of this division will conclude the season at under .500. Atlanta and Carolina both seemed out of contention in early November, as the Falcons began 2-6, while the Panthers stumbled to a 3-7-1 start following a division title last season. However, both these rivals took advantage of New Orleans struggling down the stretch, as the Falcons and Panthers each grabbed victories at the Superdome this month.


Atlanta (6-9) improved to 5-0 in NFC South play, while saving its season in a 30-14 blowout at New Orleans last Sunday as six-point underdogs. Matt Ryan diced up the Saints’ defense for 322 yards on 30 completions, while Julio Jones hauled in 107 yards receiving one week after sitting out with a hip injury. Amazingly, the Falcons’ defense has stepped up on the road against division foes, allowing 17 points or less in wins at Carolina, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans.


The Panthers (6-8-1) survived the Browns in a 17-13 home victory to keep its playoff hopes alive, but Carolina failed to cash as six-point home favorites. Cam Newton hit Jonathan Stewart for a nine-yard touchdown to give Carolina the lead in the fourth quarter, as the Panthers’ quarterback threw for 201 yards after missing a home win the previous week against Tampa Bay to recover from an auto accident.


The Falcons held off the Panthers in the first meeting of the season back in Week 11 at Bank of America Stadium 19-17. Carolina erased a 16-3 deficit in the fourth quarter with a pair of Newton touchdown strikes to take a 17-16 advantage. However, Matt Bryant’s 44-yard field goal in the final two minutes proved to be the difference, as the Falcons handed the Panthers their fourth home loss of the season.


Carolina snapped a five-game losing streak at the Georgia Dome in last season’s 21-20 win to close out the regular season. The Panthers have struggled on the highway this season, putting together a 2-4-1 SU and 3-4 ATS record. Atlanta has won consecutive games just once in 2014, while going 1-10 in its past 11 contests off a victory since December 2012.


From a totals perspective, the Falcons are 4-2 to the ‘over’ at the Georgia Dome, while going 3-0 to the ‘over’ in home games with totals below 50. Carolina has cashed the ‘over’ in each of its past six away contests, while allowing at least 31 points in five of those games. The Panthers are expected to have running back DeAngelo Williams back in the lineup after missing the last three games with a fractured finger.

 

[CNOTES]

Gridiron Angles - Week 17


December 27, 2014


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:


-- The Colts are 11-0 ATS (13.05 ppg) since Nov 04, 2012 when facing a team that has scored on less than 30% of their offensive drives.


NFL PLAYER TREND:


-- The Bears are 9-0-1 OU (17.25 ppg) since November 4, 2012 on the road after a home game in which Matt Forte had at least 5 receptions.


NFL BIBLE ATS TREND:


-- The Raiders are 0-12 ATS as a dog when they covered by 7+ points last game.


NFL BIBLE OU TREND:


-- The Jaguars are 8-0 OU on the road the week after a win in which they committed no turnovers.


NFL PLAY AGAINST ATS TREND:


-- The Cowboys are 0-10 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since December 20, 2008 as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:


-- The Rams are 13-0 OU (+10.8 ppg) since October 2003 after a game as a favorite where they turned the ball over at least three times, if they are not searching for their first win of the season.


NFL ATS SUPER SYSTEM:


-- Teams playing their final regular season away game which have won at least six of their first seven away games are 13-27-1 ATS. Active against Dallas


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:


-- The Dolphins are 0-14 OU (-10.0 ppg) since 2001 after a game where they scored at least 27 points and threw at least three passing touchdowns.


NFL O/U SUPER SYSTEM:


-- Teams that did not have a run of longer than seven yards last game are 86-66-2 OU. Active on Tampa Bay, Arizona, Buffalo, Indianapolis.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's Top Action


December 25, 2014




CLEVELAND BROWNS (7-8) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (9-6)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Baltimore -9, Total: 42.5


The Browns look to spoil the Ravens’ playoff hopes and finish with a .500 season when the AFC North rivals meet on Sunday. Cleveland was unable to win in Carolina last week, losing 17-13 as 6-point underdogs, marking its fourth straight SU loss (2-2 ATS). Meanwhile, Baltimore lost 25-13 as a 5-point favorite in Houston last week, dropping the club to 1-3 ATS (2-2 SU) in its past four contests. When these teams met earlier in the season on Sept. 21, the Ravens won 23-21 as 1.5-point road favorites by out-rushing the Browns 160 to 91. Baltimore is 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS) in this series over the past three seasons and has won-and-covered in six of its past seven trips to Cleveland. The Ravens are 28-13 ATS after gaining four or less yards per play in their previous game since 1992, and are also 38-19 ATS after being outgained by their opponent by 100+ total yards in that timeframe.


QB Johnny Manziel (hamstring) has been ruled out for this game, and QB Brian Hoyer (biceps, shoulder) might not be able to play either, which would leave undrafted rookie Connor Shaw as the starting quarterback. Other notable injuries in this game include Browns CB Joe Haden (shoulder) and WR Andrew Hawkins (thumb) who are both questionable. Baltimore also has some major players injured with WR Steve Smith (knee), OT Eugene Monroe (ankle) and OT Rick Wagner (foot) all questionable, while RB Justin Forsett (ankle) has been upgraded to probable.


The Browns defense really missed top CB Joe Haden last week, surrendering 404 total yards against the Panthers in a 17-13 loss. Cleveland allowed Carolina's offense to go 9-of-16 on third downs, and will need to get more timely stops against the Ravens in this one. Offensively, the Browns lost QB Johnny Manziel (175 pass yards, 0 TD, 2 INT) early in the game and Brian Hoyer (3,326 pass yards, 12 TD, 13 INT) came in. Hoyer threw for 134 yards with a touchdown and one interception. He will get the start on Sunday if healthy enough to give it a go. If not, South Carolina product QB Connor Shaw will make his NFL debut.


TE Jordan Cameron (21 rec, 383 yards, 2 TD) caught three passes for 88 yards and a touchdown last week's loss, as Hoyer connected with Cameron on an 81-yard touchdown to give the Browns a 13-10 lead early in the fourth quarter. WR Josh Gordon (24 rec, 303 yards) was held to just four catches for 45 yards in the game. Whoever is under center for Cleveland will need to do a much better job of getting Gordon the ball. He should be seeing double-digit targets, as he is an elite talent that can make any offense better. RB Isaiah Crowell (601 rush yards, 8 TD) will need to run the ball more effectively if this team is going to beat Baltimore. Crowell has rushed for just 72 yards on 23 carries over the past two weeks, but the Ravens defense ranks fourth in the NFL in both rushing yards allowed (86.9 per game) and yards per carry allowed (3.6).


The Ravens are coming off of a brutal defeat, losing 25-13 against a Case Keenum-led Texans team on Sunday. They must now beat the Browns in order to keep their playoff chances alive and it won’t be easy against a division rival. QB Joe Flacco (3,674 pass yards, 25 TD, 12 INT) really struggled in the game, throwing for 195 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. In a win over the Browns earlier in the season, he threw for just 217 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. He’ll need to take care of the football in this game if he is going to give his team a chance of playing postseason football.


RB Justin Forsett (1,147 yards, 8 TD) will also need to be a lot better than he was last week if the Ravens are going to win this game. Forsett rushed for only 19 yards on 10 carries and caught four passes for 13 yards as well. Baltimore will certainly try to pound the rock, as this Browns defense is allowing an NFL-worst 142.4 rushing yards per game. The Ravens rushed for 160 yards and a touchdown as a whole in the last meeting between these teams and they will look to spark that success once again on Sunday.


SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (9-6) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (8-7)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Kansas City -3, Total: 42


The Chargers look to wrap up the final playoff spot in the AFC when they visit the Chiefs on Sunday.


San Diego outscored the 49ers 28-7 in the second half last Saturday and eventually won 38-35 in overtime. The Chargers can now make the playoffs with a victory over K.C., which lost 20-12 as 2.5-point road underdogs in Pittsburgh last week. The Chiefs still have an outside chance at that final playoff spot, but would need a win plus the Ravens (vs. Browns) and Texans (vs. Jaguars) to both lose. On Oct. 19, Kansas City beat San Diego 23-20 as a 3-point road underdog. Prior to that victory, however, the Chargers had won four straight meetings SU with the Chiefs, including the past two trips to Arrowhead Stadium. Four of the past five meetings in this head-to-head series have finished Over the total.


Kansas City is 0-7 ATS in the past three seasons after having lost four of its past five games, but San Diego is 0-6 ATS after a road game where both teams scored 24+ points in that time. Both rosters are riddled with injuries, including Chargers RB Ryan Mathews (ankle), who is questionable and teammate WR Keenan Allen (ankle), who is listed as doubtful for Sunday. The Chiefs could also be missing top WR Dwayne Bowe, who sprained his shoulder in last week's loss.


The Chargers dug themselves a deep hole against the 49ers last week, but had a miraculous comeback to keep themselves very much alive in the playoff race. San Diego now controls its own destiny after huge performances from both QB Philip Rivers (3,995 pass yards, 31 TD, 16 INT) and TE Antonio Gates (65 rec, 754 yards, 12 TD). Rivers struggled early in the game throwing some costly interceptions, but he ended up tossing two touchdown passes in the fourth quarter which ultimately tied the game up and sent it to overtime. He finished with 356 passing yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions. Gates looked like his vintage self in this one, catching seven passes for 92 yards and two touchdowns. WR Eddie Royal (58 rec, 683 yards, 7 TD) also made some timely plays in this one, catching 10 passes for 94 yards and a touchdown. Defensively, this team is going to need to be a lot better. They allowed 35 points against a 49ers offense that has struggled for the majority of this season, and their 26th-ranked rushing defense will need to be ready to stop Jamaal Charles on Sunday.


The Chiefs have really collapsed down the stretch, losing four of their past five games (SU and ATS). They must now beat the Chargers and hope for a loss by both the Ravens and the Texans if they are going to make the playoffs. RB Jamaal Charles (979 rush yards, 9 TD) is the main player that this offense really relies on in this game. The Chargers are allowing 125.0 rushing yards per game and Charles should be able to find some holes here. He rushed for 95 yards and a touchdown in their last meeting.


QB Alex Smith (3,265 pass yards, 18 TD, 6 INT) will be asked to do what he always does, which is take care of the football and complete high percentage throws. Smith threw for 311 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions in a loss to the Steelers last week. His 45 passing attempts in that game was extremely high for a quarterback like him, so the Chiefs will definitely try to scale him back in this one. The Chiefs defense is allowing just 200.2 passing yards per game (2nd in NFL) this season. They’ll need to be ready to defend the pass in this one, as Philip Rivers could pick them apart in what is really an elimination game for Kansas City.


CAROLINA PANTHERS (6-8-1) at ATLANTA FALCONS (6-9)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Atlanta -4, Total: 48


The Panthers visit the Falcons on Sunday in a game that will determine which sub-.500 team wins the NFC South.


Carolina hosted the Browns in Week 16 and won 17-13 to for its third straight win (1-2 ATS) and to give itself the opportunity to play for the NFC South crown. Meanwhile, Atlanta went into New Orleans and won 30-14 to set up this winner-take-all matchup. These teams met earlier in the season on Nov. 16, when the Falcons beat the Panthers 19-17 as 2.5-point road favorites. Carolina had won three straight games SU against Atlanta prior to that loss, improving to 3-2 SU (4-1 ATS) in this series since the start of 2012. Before losing at home to the Panthers last season, the Falcons had won five straight meetings at Georgia Dome. They have covered in five of their past six home games in this series.


Carolina is 31-15 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of its previous four games since 1992, and is also facing an Atlanta team that is 7-19 ATS in home games after a win by 14+ points in that span. RB DeAngelo Williams (hand) and G Amini Silatolu (knee) are both questionable for the Panthers in this game, while teammate LB A.J. Klein (undisclosed) is doubtful. The Falcons just sent SS William Moore (shoulder) to IR, and they could also be missing top RB Steven Jackson (quad) and G Jon Asamoah (back) for Sunday's regular-season finale.


The Panthers hosted the Browns in a must-win game last week, and QB Cam Newton (3,013 pass yards, 17 TD, 12 INT) came through for his team just two weeks after getting into a car accident that caused two fractures in his back. Newton threw for 201 yards with one touchdown and one interception, but he also rushed 12 times for 63 yards and another score. He threw for 292 yards with two touchdowns and two picks in a 19-17 loss to Atlanta on Nov. 16, but he has been much better in recent weeks. In the past two games that Newton has played, he’s thrown for 427 yards with 4 TD and 1 INT. He’s also rushed for 146 yards and two touchdowns in those games.


RB Jonathan Stewart (760 rush yards, 3 TD) has really run the ball well for Carolina recently, gaining 122 yards on 24 carries against Cleveland, and has now rushed for at least 75 yards in each of the past four games. This Falcons defense has allowed 25.5 PPG (8th in NFL) this season and Carolina should be able to move the ball effectively in this one. Its 10th-ranked defense (343.3 total YPG allowed) comes into this game hot after having given up only 13.3 PPG over the past three weeks.


The Falcons went into New Orleans last week and their defense was dominant, holding the Saints to just 14 points in a game that both teams needed to win. Atlanta’s defense forced four turnovers in the game, including an 88-yard fumble return touchdown by DE Osi Umenyiora (2.5 sacks) on the game’s final play that capped off an amazing performance. The Falcons will need to be on their game again in Week 17, as it will be tough to stop Cam Newton both through the air and on the ground. For the season, Atlanta ranks last in the NFL in both total defense (404.4 total YPG allowed) and passing defense (291.1 passing YPG allowed).


QB Matt Ryan (4,434 pass yards, 28 TD, 12 INT) threw for 322 yard with a touchdown and no picks in the win over New Orleans, giving him 15 TD with just 5 INT over the past eight games. He is on a tear for Atlanta and will need to have a big game against the Panthers if his team is going to make it to the postseason. Having a healthier WR Julio Jones (100 rec, 1,535 yards, 6 TD) would certainly help Ryan and the Falcons win this game. Jones came back from a hip injury last week and had seven catches for 107 yards. He is an elite receiver and will be a nightmare for the Panthers to defend if his hip is feeling better this week.


DETROIT LIONS (11-4) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (11-4)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Green Bay -7.5, Total: 47.5


The Lions and the Packers battle for first place in the NFC North when the teams square off at Lambeau Field on Sunday.


Detroit barely got by in a 20-14 victory as 10-point road favorites over the Bears in Chicago last week, but has now won four straight games SU, but has failed to cover in the past two. Meanwhile, Green Bay defeated the Bucs 20-3 as 11-point favorites in Tampa Bay. These NFC North rivals now play for the division crown, but the Packers are 7-0 at home on the season and have beaten the Lions in 23 straight home games, going 16-5 ATS during this longest streak of domination in NFL history.


When these teams met earlier in the year on Sept. 21, Detroit won 19-7 as a 1-point home favorite, marking its second straight win (SU and ATS) in this series, but Green Bay had won-and-covered in five straight in this series before that. The Packers are 7-18 ATS in home games after allowing four or less yards per play in their previous game since 1992, but the Lions are 1-10 ATS in road games after having won six or seven of their previous eight games in that timeframe. Four of the past five games played between these teams have finished Under the total.


The Lions had plenty of trouble with the Bears last week, trailing 14-10 heading into the fourth quarter. RB Joique Bell (800 rush yards, 7 TD) came up huge in that game, rushing 13 times for 74 yards (5.7 YPC) and a touchdown. He has now rushed for at least 62 yards in each of the past four games, and has a total of five touchdowns over the past four weeks as well. RB Reggie Bush (278 yards, 2 TD) was also excellent for Detroit, rushing for 54 yards and a touchdown and also catching six passes for 44 yards. This duo should be effective against a Packers defense that is allowing 120.5 rushing yards per game (22nd in NFL).


QB Matthew Stafford (4,040 pass yards, 19 TD, 12 INT) will need to get himself back on track after throwing for zero touchdowns and two picks against the Bears last week. He threw for just 246 yards with no touchdowns and two picks in the last meeting with the Packers and will need to take care of the ball in this game. WR Calvin Johnson (67 rec, 1,038 yards, 6 TD) had six catches for 82 yards in the last meeting with Green Bay, but he and Stafford will have to be much more effective if this team is going to break this long-lasting losing skid in Green Bay in order to win the NFC North division.


The Packers looked awful in a loss to the Bills two weeks ago, but they righted the ship in a win over the Bucs in Week 16. One reason they won that game was the excellent running of RB Eddie Lacy (1,039 rush yards, 9 TD). Lacy rushed for 99 yards and a touchdown in the win and will need to be just effective against the Lions. He had only 36 yards on 11 carries in their meeting earlier in the year, but his hard-nosed running can really set the tone for this offense. QB Aaron Rodgers (4,155 pass yards, 36 TD, 5 INT) threw for just 162 yards with one touchdown and no picks in the first meeting between these teams. He’ll need to be much better against the Lions this time around. In his past 11 meetings against the Lions, Rodgers has thrown for 247.4 yards per game with 20 touchdowns and only five interceptions.


WRs Jordy Nelson (92 rec, 1,433 yards, 13 TD) and Randall Cobb (87 rec, 1,207 yards, 10 TD) should be in for big games in this one. Green Bay is going to unleash its passing attack with this game being as important as it is, and Rodgers will look to both of his go-to-guys often. This defense is allowing just 228.1 passing yards per game (10th in NFL) and will need to keep that up with a meeting with Stafford and Calvin Johnson on Sunday.


ST. LOUIS RAMS (6-9) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (11-4)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Seattle -13, Total: 41.0


The Seahawks try to clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs when they host the Rams on Sunday.


After holding its three previous opponents to a combined 12 points, the St. Louis defense had no answer for the 6.5-point underdog Giants last week, allowing 514 total yards in a 37-27 home loss. Meanwhile, Seattle won its fifth straight game (SU and ATS) in a dominant 35-6 road victory over Arizona. During the win streak, the Seahawks have won each game by double figures with the average score being 23 to 7. But they were on the losing end of this first meeting back in Week 7, falling 28-26 to the 6.5-point underdog Rams. Prior to that defeat, Seattle had won three straight meetings in this series, but St. Louis covered in two of those losses. The Rams have not won at CenturyLink Field since Jan. 8, 2005, as the Seahawks have covered in seven of their nine home victories since that defeat.


There are some important betting trends for this matchup, as St. Louis is 11-3 ATS after a double-digit loss over the past three years, and Seattle is 3-15 ATS off a blowout win by 21+ points over a division rival since 1992. However, the Seahawks are 27-11 ATS when playing with six or less days of rest in that timeframe, and 8-1 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games over the past two seasons. While no new injuries have popped up for the Rams, Seattle could be without three players on Sunday with WR Jermaine Kearse (hamstring) doubtful and both C Max Unger (knee) and OT Russell Okung (lung) listed as questionable.


The Rams went three straight games without allowing a touchdown until surrendering 37 points in a loss to the Giants last week. Despite that big number, this defense allows only 22.3 PPG (T-14th in NFL) thanks to a top-notch red-zone defense (45% efficiency, 4th in league). St. Louis also allows just 108.9 rushing yards per game (14th in NFL), which should help them against a Seahawks team that loves to run the football. When these teams met earlier in the season, Seattle's running backs were held to 65 yards on 22 carries (3.0 YPC), but QB Russell Wilson ran for 106 yards on just seven attempts. The Rams best player in that Week 7 division win was RB Tre Mason (737 rush yards, 4 TD), who rushed 18 times for 85 yards (4.7 YPC) and a touchdown in that game, and he’ll be heavily featured in this one as well.


QB Shaun Hill (1,414 pass yards, 8 TD, 5 INT) will be under center when these teams play this time around. He threw for 290 yards with two touchdowns and one interception last week against the Giants and will need to take care of the football against this relentless Seattle secondary. WR Kenny Britt (44 rec, 710 yards, 3 TD) will be targeted often on Sunday, as he is coming off of a game against the Giants where he caught nine passes for 103 yards. At 6-foot-3, 223 pounds, Britt is a big target that has the size to win battles against the big Seattle cornerbacks.


The Seahawks are still fighting for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and are coming off one of their most dominant offensive performances of the season. QB Russell Wilson (3,236 pass yards, 20 TD, 6 INT; 842 rush yards, 7.5 YPC, 6 TD) threw for 339 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions against the Cardinals last week, while also rushing for 88 yards and a touchdown. In the Oct. 19 between these two teams, Wilson threw for 313 yards (8.7 YPA) with two touchdowns and no picks, and also rushed for 106 yards and a touchdown on just seven carries. He’ll need to be on his game again if the Seahawks are going to finish their season strong and give themselves home-field advantage throughout the postseason. WR Doug Baldwin (782 rec yards, 3 TD) has emerged as the go-to receiver in this passing offense, as he compiled 113 receiving yards last week, and also posted a season-high 123 yards in the Week 7 meeting with St. Louis.


RB Marshawn Lynch (1,246 rush yards, 12 TD) rushed for 113 yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals last week. Lynch was dealing with stomach issues prior to the game, so he should be much healthier heading Sunday's action. He'll have to do much better than his 2.9 yards per carry (18 rush, 53 yards) that he produced in the Oct. 19 loss in St. Louis. This Seahawks defense has allowed seven points or less in four of the past five games with the exception being a 24-14 win over a solid Philadelphia offense. For the season, Seattle leads the NFL in total defense (268.6 YPG) yards per play (4.7), scoring defense (16.5 PPG), and passing defense (184.5 YPG).