Cnotes National Football Leagues Trends-News- Picks !!

[CNOTES]

NFL

Week 3

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 24

8:25 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NY GIANTS
Washington is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Washington is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Giants last 7 games when playing Washington


Sunday, September 27

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games on the road
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. BALTIMORE
Cincinnati is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games on the road
Baltimore is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games
San Diego is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. CLEVELAND
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. NY JETS
Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Philadelphia

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. HOUSTON
Tampa Bay is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Tampa Bay's last 12 games
Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Houston is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games at home

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. DALLAS
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. NEW ENGLAND
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Jacksonville's last 15 games on the road
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
Indianapolis is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Tennessee is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. CAROLINA
New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of New Orleans's last 21 games when playing Carolina
Carolina is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

4:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Francisco's last 9 games
San Francisco is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Arizona is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco

4:25 PM
BUFFALO vs. MIAMI
Buffalo is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games

4:25 PM
CHICAGO vs. SEATTLE
Chicago is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Chicago

8:30 PM
DENVER vs. DETROIT
Denver is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Denver is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Detroit's last 22 games
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games


Monday, September 28

8:30 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Kansas City

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 3

Thursday - Sept, 24

Washington at NY Giants, 8:25 ET
Washington: 11-23 ATS in all games
New York: 6-1 ATS when playing on a Thursday

Total Trends for Skins at Giants:
Washington: 73-45 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
New York: 58-34 UNDER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Line Watch: Brees' shoulder has total bettors on alert


Saints QB Drew Brees is likely to miss time with a rotator cuff injury, which has bettors watching New Orleans' totals closely.


Spread to bet on now


Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (+1)


Are the Falcons finally over the hump? Atlanta owns two tight wins over NFC East opponents (Eagles and Giants), and goes for the division trifecta against the wounded Cowboys Sunday. The Falcons have twice trailed in the late going, only to storm back both times and keep pace with the Panthers in the suddenly-relevant NFC South.


Tony Romo’s injury has caused Dallas money to dry up as bettors have pounded the Falcons 2-to-1. If you like Atlanta to make it three in a row, best lay the money down as soon as possible because the line could bump up pretty quickly.


Spread to wait on


Pittsburgh Steelers at St. Louis Rams (+1)


Steelers action has already tilted this one from Rams -1 to Rams +1, and with 70 percent of early bettors backing Pittsburgh, there could be even more volatility on this game. Pittsburgh’s 25-point blowout of the 49ers in Week 2 settled nerves in western Pennsylvania after the Steelers had been manhandled by the Patriots in the opener.


Rams fans may be in for a roller-coaster ride this season, if the early results are any indication. No one expected St. Louis to be dominated in Washington, but St. Louis just could not get its offense going.


Total to watch


New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (45)


As Yogi would say, it gets late early around here, and at 0-2 the Saints find themselves in last place in the NFC South and with an injured quarterback. Reports about Drew Brees’s injured (throwing) shoulder are conflicting, and range from “he’s good to go on Sunday” to “he’ll be sidelined for several weeks”.


If Brees can’t go against the Panthers, the immortal Luke McCown takes over against a Carolina team that has allowed the second-fewest points in the league this season. Not hard to do the math from that point, especially considering that the Panthers’ offense is banged up itself and has been less than mediocre so far.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Thursday, September 24




Saints' Brees expects to start at Carolina


New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees has every intention of playing this week despite sustaining a shoulder injury last week that affected many of his throws in the Saints' 26-19 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.


Speaking during Wednesday's news conference, Brees said he is "pretty confident" that he will be under center when the 0-2 Saints travel to face the 2-0 Carolina Panthers on Sunday.


Brees avoided a major injury but admitted a direct hit he took on the shoulder from Bucs defensive end Jacquies Smith just as he started his throwing motion affected him on a few passes later in the game. After the hit, Brees shook his arm and rotated his shoulder while waiting for the next play call to come in.


Reports earlier in the week indicated Brees could miss a several games. He did not throw during Wednesday's practice.


"I do have to take it day to day, and I have to be smart with this. So that's what I'm doing," Brees told reporters after practice.




Steelers leading the way in the 2-point revolution


The Pittsburgh Steelers went for a 2-point conversion following each of their first two touchdowns against the San Francisco 49ers last week, but you had best get used to it as this could be something we see more and more in the 2015 season.


As Dale Lolley, Steelers beat reporter for the Observer-Reporter, points out, we are on pace for 56 two-point conversion attempts this season. That's double what we saw in 2014.


But it's Mike Tomlin and those Steelers that are leading the way, converting all three attempts so far.


Eleven clubs have opted for the 2-pointer instead of the extra point with six successfully converting. Only the Steelers, Indianapolis Colts and Buffalo Bills have attempted more than one.

 

[CNOTES]

Where the action is: Biggest midweek NFL Week 3 line moves


Thanks to Darrelle Revis and a defense that has allowed just 17 points through two weeks, the Jets head into Sunday's meeting with the Eagles 2-0 ATS.


Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys - Open: +2.5, Move: +3.5, Move: +2.5


Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant went down in Week 1 and quarterback Tony Romo was hurt in Week 2 adding to the injury woes that have grabbed the headlines in Big D.


Still, Dallas is 2-0 heading into its showdown with the Falcons Sunday afternoon but the prospect of Brandon Weeden isn't exactly enticing to the betting community.


"We opened the Falcons as 2.5-point faves heading into Dallas adjusting the juice as the week has gone on with the majority of the action on the Falcons," Stewart says. "With the QB situation in Dallas up in the air I believe we will see this line up as high as 3-3.5 as the public will jump on Atlanta on those numbers to cover. Also, if the number gets up to Falcons -3.5 you will see the sharps come in and back the Cowboys."


Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets - Open: +2.5, Move: -2.5


Talk about two teams going in opposite directions.


The Eagles have stumbled out to an 0-2 SU and ATS record to kick things off in 2015, while the Jets have gotten out to a 2-0 SU and ATS mark thanks to a defense that has allowed an NFL low 17 points through the first two weeks.


As Stewart points out, action is all over the hot Jets with both sharps and public bettors loving the home team.


"We had opened this game with the Eagles as 2-point faves last week, and with the Eagles' second loss and the Jets convincing win on Monday night over the Colts, the action pushed the Jets to our current number (at time of writing) of Jets -2.5 with 80 percent of the action," Stewart says. "This is a spot where we are seeing both public and sharp action backing the Jets."


Pittsburgh Steelers at St. Louis Rams - Open: +1, Move: +2


The Steelers are coming off a resounding win over the San Francisco 49ers in Week 2 and are one of eight teams bring perfect 2-0 ATS records into the third week of the season.


The Rams defeated the Seattle Seahawks in Week 1 at home before coming out flat in a 24-10 loss at the Washington Redskins in Week 2.


This has been all Steelers money thus far and Stewart doesn't expect that to stop as we get closer to Sunday.


"We opened the Steelers as 1-point faves and with over 90 percent of the action backing the Steelers, we have moved them to 2-point road faves against the Rams," Stewart tells Covers. "The Steelers were dominant in last week's game, blowing out the 49ers at home. We should see this line balloon as the week goes on if the action continues in on the Steelers."

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 4


Washington @ NY Giants

Game 301-302
September 24, 2015 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
126.288
NY Giants
132.929
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 6 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 3 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(-3 1/2); Under


New Orleans @ Carolina

Game 469-470
September 27, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
129.023
Carolina
130.115
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 1
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+3 1/2); Over

Jacksonville @ New England

Game 471-472
September 27, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
130.399
New England
140.208
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 10
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 14
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+10); Over

Cincinnati @ Baltimore

Game 473-474
September 27, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
132.820
Baltimore
138.573
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 5 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 2 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-2 1/2); Over

Oakland @ Cleveland

Game 475-476
September 27, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
125.000
Cleveland
126.665
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 1 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 3 1/2
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+3 1/2); Over

Indianapolis @ Tennessee

Game 477-478
September 27, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
136.884
Tennessee
124.944
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 12
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 3
46
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-3); Under

Atlanta @ Dallas

Game 479-480
September 27, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
130.935
Dallas
137.601
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 6 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 2 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+2 1/2); Over

San Francisco @ Arizona

Game 481-482
September 27, 2015 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
129.126
Arizona
136.522
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 7 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 6
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-6); Over

Pittsburgh @ St. Louis

Game 461-462
September 27, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
134.193
St. Louis
136.326
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 2
48
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(+2); Over

Chicago @ Seattle

Game 483-484
September 27, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
126.860
Seattle
138.828
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 12
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 15
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+15); Over

San Diego @ Minnesota

Game 463-464
September 27, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
134.456
Minnesota
131.322
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 3
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 2 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(+2 1/2); Over

Buffalo @ Miami

Game 485-486
September 27, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
131.476
Miami
136.415
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 5
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 2 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-2 1/2); Under

Tampa Bay @ Houston

Game 465-466
September 27, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
120.508
Houston
132.530
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 12
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 6 1/2
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-6 1/2); Under

Denver @ Detroit

Game 487-488
September 27, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
138.897
Detroit
133.350
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 5 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 3
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-3); Over

Philadelphia @ NY Jets

Game 467-468
September 27, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
131.974
NY Jets
135.931
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 4
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 2 1/2
46
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(-2 1/2); Under


Kansas City @ Green Bay

Game 489-490
September 28, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
135.399
Green Bay
139.976
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 4 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 7
49
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+7); Over

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 4

Sunday - Sept, 27

Pittsburgh at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 8-1 OVER in non-conf games
St Louis: 50-31 OVER in non-conf games

San Diego at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 8-1 OVER in non-conf games
Minnesota: 8-2 ATS off a division game

Tampa Bay at Houston, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 2-11 ATS against AFC South division
Houston: 3-11 ATS off a road game

Philadelphia at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 15-5 UNDER in road games off a home loss by 10 or more points
New York: 71-97 ATS off a road game

New Orleans at Carolina, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 1-8 ATS in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders
Carolina: 26-12 ATS at home off a non-conf game

Jacksonville at New England, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 4-14 ATS in the first half of the season
New England: 36-19 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game

Cincinnati at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 7-0 UNDER as a road underdog
Baltimore: 6-0 UNDER in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses

Oakland at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 0-6 ATS off a upset win as an underdog
Cleveland: 39-23 UNDER as a home favorite of 7 points or less

Indianapolis at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 10-0 ATS vs division opponents
Tennessee: 2-10 ATS at home

Atlanta at Dallas, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 4-22 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
Dallas: 12-3 ATS as an underdog

San Francisco at Arizona, 4:05 ET
San Francisco: 1-5 ATS off a loss of 10 or more points
Arizona: 12-3 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest

Chicago at Seattle, 4:25 ET
Chicago: 26-13 UNDER in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses
Seattle: 6-0 UNDER off a road loss

Buffalo at Miami, 4:25 ET
Buffalo: 8-1 UNDER as an underdog
Miami: 6-0 UNDER off a loss of 6 or less points

Denver at Detroit, 8:30 ET
Denver: 0-6 ATS off a win against a division rival
Detroit: 6-0 UNDER after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game


Monday - Sept, 28

Kansas City at Green Bay, 8:30 ET
Kansas City: 43-26 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses
Green Bay: 15-7 OVER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Sunday's games
Steelers (1-1) @ Rams (1-1)-- Pitt gets RB Bell back from 2-game suspension just in time to face St Louis defense that allowed 182 rushing yards in terrible loss at Washington last week. Rams are 2-6 last two years in games where spread was 3 or less points- they lost three of last four vs Steelers, with all four games decided by 10+ points. Since '07, Pitt is 15-24 vs spread in non-divisional road tilts- they're 13-6 since '13 in games with spread of 3 or less. Steelers are 13-25 on third down so far, with seven plays of 20+ yards on 3rd down. Under is 10-7 in Steeler road games since '13. Rams badly need a RB (Mason/Gurley) to become a playmaker.

Chargers (1-1) @ Vikings (1-1)-- Minnesota got Peterson untracked (134 rushing yards, 58 receiving) in win last week; Vikings are 12-6 since '12 in games where spread was 3 or less. San Diego heads east for 2nd week in row; Bolts are 2-4 at Minnesota, with last win in '93- they are 12-7-1 as road underdogs since '12, 8-13-1 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Chargers trailed first two games by 11-8 points at half, but won opener after rallying back from 21-3 deficit. Last 4+ years, over is 20-13 in Viking home games. Former Charger coach Turner is now OC in Minnesota. San Diego turned ball over three times in both games thus far.

Buccaneers (1-1) @ Texans (0-2)-- In two losses, Houston dropped back to pass 111 times, ran ball only 44, not a good ratio; they're 8-33 on third down, have been outscored 37-12 in 1st half of games. Mallett was better last week than Hoyer was in opener, but still completed less than half his passes. Texans are 6-4-1 as home faves since 2011. Tampa Bay is 6-3 as road dog under Smith after upset win last week in Superdome; since '08, Bucs are 16-11-1 as non-divisional road underdogs. Bucs are just 8-28 on 3rd down; they lost TE Seferien-Jenkins, which will hamper passing game. Texans had very high expectations; this is a must win for them.

Eagles (0-2) @ Jets (2-0)-- Gang Green is first team since '92 Steelers to force ten turnovers (+8) in first two games; Philly opened -2.5 but lined moved five points after Monday nite game. Eagles won last nine series games, with six of last eight wins by 7+ points. Jets are 1-6 since '11 in game following an upset win. Philly is 20-10 as a road dog, since '07, but Murray has 11 yards on 21 carries so far-- Sam Bradford is now 18-32-1 as an NFL QB, Eagles are 5-23 on 3rd down. Eagles have not scored first half TD yet (outscored 26-3 in 1st half); they have five turnovers, only three TDs. AFC East teams are 4-1-1 vs spread outside division, NFC East teams are 1-3.

Saints (0-2) @ Panthers (2-0)-- Brees has bruised rotator cuff, huge problem for a Saints squad that allowed 9.6/8.1 ypa in first two games, losing at home to rookie QB last week. Carolina won four of last six series games, winning last three here by 8-4-31 points. Six of last eight series totals were 44+. Divisional home favorites are 1-5 vs spread so far in NFL this season. Since '09, Saints are 4-10-1 as dogs on road. Carolina is 8-2-2 in last dozen games as home favorite, 9-2 in last 11 division games as HF. Panthers held first two foes to 50% (49-98) passing, 8-31 on third down. Saints lost field position battle in first two games, by 8 yards in each game.

Jaguars (1-1) @ Patriots (2-0)-- Since 2012, Pats are 1-8 as double digit fave; they are 26-19 as favorite since '09, and won six in row vs Jaguars, with last series loss in '98 playoffs. Jax lost last six visits here, with five losses by 11+ points-- they're 4-7-1 as double digit dogs under Bradley. Patriots scored eight TDs on 21 drives to start season; they've also allowed 813 yards, seven TDs in two games- hard to cover huge spread with porous defense. Jags are just 8-26 on 3rd down, scored a lone FG in second half of two games, but they outgained first two opponents, so thats good sign. New England covered four of its last five games before its bye.

Bengals (2-0) @ Ravens (0-2)-- Cincy won four of last five series games, but lost four of last five visits here, winning 23-16 in LY's opener. Bengals gained 7.9/8.0 ypa in two meetings LY; since '07, they're 18-4-1 as underdog of 3 or less points. Cincy is +3 in turnovers (5-2), +6 in sacks (6-0), scoring seven TD in 21 drives to start season. Ravens were 6-24 on third down in opening losses by 6-4 points; they're 9-1 in last 10 home openers (7-3 vs spread), 8-3 as faves in home openers- they had three TDs, one FG in seven red zone drives vs Cincy LY, getting swept by 7-3 points. Sine 2007, Ravens are 7-13-1 as home faves in divisional games.

Raiders (1-1) @ Browns (1-1)-- McCown was cleared to practice, will start here for Cleveland; they've won six of last eight games vs Oakland, winning last three at home by 6-3-10 points. Raiders lost four of last five road openers, losing last two by total of nine points- they're 5-2 as underdog in road openers. NFL-wide, non-divisional home favorites are 8-4-1 vs spread so far this season. Oakland defense allowed seven TDs, six FG tries on 22 drives this season; last two years, Oakland is 7-3 as non-divisional road underdog. Since 2008, Browns are 7-15-2 as a home favorite; since '10, they're 9-14-2 vs spread as non-divisional home favorites.

Colts (0-2) @ Titans (1-1)-- This is home opener for QB Mariota; Titans covered seven of last eight as underdog in home openers, but are just 3-10-1 as home dog overall the last three years. Tennessee has six TDs on its seven red zone drives, a good sign; they faced neophyte QB in each of first two games, step up in class here vs Luck, but Colts turned ball over eight times, have only three TDs in first two games- they're 0-2 for 3rd time in last five years, but 12-1 in last 13 games vs Titans, winning last seven, four by 8+ points. Indy won last three visits here by 6-3-7 points; since '08, Colts are 19-9-2 as road favorites. Indy traveling on short week, are -7 in turnovers already.

Falcons (2-0) @ Cowboys (2-0)-- New Dallas QB Weeden is 5-16 as NFL starter; 20 of 21 games were with Cleveland. Fully expect Cowboys to run ball, as Bryant, Witten both hurt; since '10, Pokes are 13-27 vs spread at home, with dogs 30-10. Atlanta trailed in 4th quarter of both but won first two games anyway; Falcons lost four of last five visits to Dallas (won n '03); their last visit was in '09. Last 2+ years, Dallas is 10-5 in games with spread of 3 or less points- Atlanta is 5-10 in its games like that. Romo hadn't been practicing on Wednesdays; Weeden has had more reps with first team offense than most QBs would've in his situation. Under is 7-2 in last nine Atlanta road games.

49ers (1-1) @ Cardinals (2-0)-- Arizona is 14-3 SU at home under Arians, 8-2-1 as a home favorite; they scored 79 points in first two games, with 10 TDs on 19 drives, and thats with an even turnover ratio- they're 10-19 on third down, outscored foes 37-12 in second half. Cardinals are 2-9 in last 11 games vs 49ers, going 2-4 in last six played here- they had only one TD in five red zone drives vs SF LY. Last week, Redbirds ran opening kick back for TD, later scored defensive TD. Niners are 2-5-1 in last eight games as road underdog; favorites are 12-4-1 vs spread in their last 17 road games. Since '10, 49ers are 6-9 vs spread in division road games.

Bears (0-2) @ Seahawks (0-2)-- Clausen (1-10 as NFL starter) gets start here, just his second start since 2010. Bears allowed 79 points in first two games;foes have 10 TDs on 16 drives- they also allowed defensive TD/KR score. Since '11, Bears are 8-14-1 as road underdogs, Seattle is 0-3 since last home game; they held lead in 4th quarter in all three games. Chancellor ended holdout, will bolster Seattle's D that allowed 11 pass plays of 20+ yards in first two games, 2nd-most in NFL. Seahawks won/covered last six home openers; under is 11-2-1 in last 14. Seattle is 6-5 as HF last three seasons. Over is 18-6 in Chicago road games last three years.

Bills (1-1) @ Dolphins (1-1)-- Both teams off disappointing losses after promising wins in opener. Home side won six of last eight series games; Bills won three of last four series games, but lost three of last four visits here. Miami is 7-12 in last 19 tries as favorite of 3 or less points; they won last three home openers-- since 2007, Miami is 10-24 vs spread as home favorite (5-7 last 12 in division). Bills are 3-8 in last 11 road openers (Ryan lost his last four with Jets); since '11, Buffalo is 10-17-1 as a road dog, 5-7 in AFC East games. Dolphins trailed both games at the half so far; they've run ball only 34 times for 116 yards, while dropping back to pass 83 times, not a good ratio.

Broncos (2-0) @ Lions (0-2)-- Detroit is 0-2, Stafford is already banged-up and the Packers are already two games ahead in NFC North. Detroit won 45-10/44-7 in last two games with Denver, after losing six of first nine series games. Broncos are 3-2 in Motor City. Lions scored 36 ppg in winning last four home openers; they are 16-7-1 vs spread in last 24 home openers, 8-1-1 in last ten as favorite- over is 5-0 in their last five home openers. Broncos scored a defensive TD and allowed one in both games so far; they averaged 3.4/5.0 ypa, not good, but seven takeaways (+5) erased all that. Lions ran ball 32 times in first two games, dropped back 85; with a banged-up QB, they need to run ball better.


Monday's game
Chiefs (1-1) @ Packers (2-0)-- Green Bay scored 29 ppg in winning first two tilts; they're 10-21 on third down, and scored 10+ points in all four halves. Packers are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine games as home favorite, 15-8-1 last 23 non-divisional home games. Chiefs had three extra days to prep after giving up two TDs in last 0:45 of bitter home loss to Denver. KC is 7-3 as road dog under Reid, a former Packer assistant; Chiefs won last three visits to Lambeau- they're 7-3-1 overall in series. Under is 23-16-1 in KC' last 40 road games. Lacy hurt foot last week; Pack still ran for 127 yards- they won first two games despite trailing both in 2nd half.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 3


The Cardinals don't pass up the chance to score six points, going a perfect 7-for-7 when it comes to scoring touchdowns inside the red zone this season.


Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (+1, 45)


Falcons’ pass protection vs. Cowboys’ poor pass rush


Kyle Shanahan has done a good job implementing his new offensive schemes in Atlanta, and the most obvious improvement is that quarterback Matt Ryan is staring at the stadium roof a lot less through the first two games of the season.


After allowing 44 sacks in 2013 and 31 last season, the Falcons have given up only three sacks and watched Ryan get hit 11 times in his 85 total dropbacks in 2015. Atlanta is throwing far less, 59.29 percent compared to 64.06 percent of the time in 2014, but when he does have the ball in the pocket, he’s got ample time to find his deep threats – more specifically WR Julio Jones.


Dallas’ defense is once again toothless when it comes to the pass rush. The Cowboys struggled to get pressure on opposing passers last season, recording only 28 sacks and 48 QB hurries in 2014, and are on a similar path with only two sacks and two hurries through two games this fall.


Losing rookie DE Randy Gregory to injury was bigger than people think, and Dallas hasn’t really faced a deep threat like Ryan-Jones this season (both Giants and Eagles throw quick, short passes). Dallas’ weak secondary will be tested – and likely exposed – if the pass rush keeps getting pushed around.


Daily Fantasy Watch: QB Matt Ryan, WR Julio Jones




Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 43.5)


Bills’ penalty problems vs. Dolphins’ defensive line


The Bills have a discipline issue and head into Week 2 of the season as the most penalized team in the league, with 25 flags flying for a grand total of 253 penalty yards against. Buffalo was whistled for 14 infractions in the loss to New England last weekend, handing the Patriots 140 free gains.


The biggest culprit has been the Bills’ protection, which has been flagged for six offensive holding penalties in two games – almost double the league average. Those holds are a killer for a run-heavy offense, leading to a 34.62 third down percentage in the first two weeks.


Miami’s defense has a lot to prove in Week 3, coming off an embarrassing waxing at the hands of the Jaguars. The Dolphins defensive line, which was supposed to be the nastiest in the NFL after adding Ndamukong Suh this offseason, has a big goose egg in the sacks column after two games.


If anything, the Fins’ formidable front line has caused a lot of clutching and grabbing from opposing pass protectors, creating six offensive holding calls this year. Overall, Miami has done a good job drawing penalties, with foes forcing 20 flags to fly for a total of 181 yards in the Dolphins favor – sixth most in the league.


Daily Fantasy Watch: Miami defense




San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5, 44)


Niners’ red-zone defense vs. Cardinals’ red-zone offense


With Carson Palmer back under center, the Cardinals have picked up where they left off before their veteran QB went down with a knee injury last November. Arizona is 2-0 and leads the league in points scored, averaging 39.5 per game.


The Cardinals don’t pass up a chance to strike pay dirt, going a perfect 7-for-7 in the red zone in the first two games. And we’re not talking field goals, either. Arizona has scored a touchdown every time it’s entered the 20-yard line, and that’s made bettors happy. Picking up seven instead of three is the reason why the Cards have covered the spread by an average of 16.5 points so far this fall.


San Francisco’s defense is still trying to figure out how to plug all those holes in the dam. The 49ers’ offseason losses are starting to show when push comes to shove, magnified when opponents creep inside the red zone.


The Niners, who held Minnesota to 0-for-1 inside the twenty in Week 1, were blown up by the Steelers last Sunday, with Pittsburgh posting a perfect 5-for-5 inside the red zone – all of which were for touchdowns. This isn’t anything new for San Francisco after allowing teams to pick up six on 61.36 percent of their red-zone chances last season. That ranked fifth worst in the NFL.


Daily Fantasy Watch: QB Carson Palmer, WR Larry Fitzgerald/Jaron Brown, RBs Chris Johnson/David Johnson




Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)


Broncos’ third-down dependency vs. Lions’ third-down defense


The Broncos offense isn’t what it used to be but is still getting the job done. The run game is failing and Peyton Manning’s dead arm isn’t posing a deep threat anymore, but we’re still talking about Peyton Manning here. The Broncos aren’t moving the chains as easy as past season, using up all three downs to pick up the next set.


Denver boasts a league-high 17 third downs per game – converting only 41.18 percent of those – but that has helped it chew up clock and hog the football for 34:09 per game – almost four more minutes than last season. Manning’s favorite target in those crunch spots is WR Emmanuel Sanders, who has 11 catches for 117 of his total 152 yards and two touchdowns on third down.


Detroit’s defense is forcing 12.5 third downs per game to start the season but has allowed opponents – San Diego and Minnesota – to convert on 52 percent of those, which stands fifth worst in the league heading into Week 3. This stop unit was among the stingiest in the NFL in third-down conversions in 2014, giving up the first down just 37.56 percent of the time.


However, the Lions pass rush has just seven QB hurries and three sacks in 2015 and can’t duplicate the pressure of last year in those blitz situations. Last Sunday, the Vikings moved the chains on seven of their 14 third downs and converted on a fourth-and-1 for a touchdown in the second quarter.


Daily Fantasy Watch: WR Emmanuel Sanders

 

[CNOTES]

Public Fades - Week 3


September 23, 2015


The home underdogs shocked the betting world in Week 2 of the NFL as the Jaguars, Raiders, Redskins, and Browns all won, while the Buccaneers came through as double-digit underdogs at New Orleans. It’s highly unlikely that those caliber of teams will be successful long term, even though Oakland or Cleveland will start at 2-1 with the two teams playing each other this Sunday.


In last week’s debut of this piece, we focused on several underdogs that the betting public likely won’t consider backing. Chicago and Washington were the two teams that were zeroed in on, as the two split its contests with the Redskins coming out with an impressive effort in a home triumph over the Rams. This week, only four teams are listed as home ‘dogs, including the Rams and Titans, each who are off losses in Week 2. Their opponents are a pair of AFC playoff teams from a year ago that are both trying to make road statements in Week 3.


Steelers (-1, 47 ½) at Rams – 1:00 PM EST


Pittsburgh erased an opening loss at New England with the most complete showing of any team in Week 2 by spanking San Francisco, 43-18 to cash as six-point favorites. Ben Roethlisberger shredded the 49ers’ defense by throwing for 369 yards and three touchdowns, including 195 yards to top target Antonio Brown. However, the Steelers head back on the road where they dropped a 28-21 decision to the Patriots in Week 1.


The Rams couldn’t capitalize off their thrilling overtime win over the defending NFC champion Seahawks in Week 1, as St. Louis fell behind Washington, 17-0 and lost 24-10 as three-point road favorites. St. Louis’ defense couldn’t contain Washington, which gained 373 yards, including 123 yards from rookie running back Matt Jones.


So why back the Rams?


VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says St. Louis has racked up a couple huge victories at the Edward Jones Dome under head coach Jeff Fisher, “The Week 1 win over the Seahawks is a great example, but in 2013, the Rams had home wins over 10-6 Arizona and 11-5 New Orleans. Last season, St. Louis beat both Seattle and Denver at home, the teams that had been in the previous Super Bowl and wound up finishing 12-4 in the 2014 standings.”


On the flip side, the Steelers’ defense has given up a ton of yards through two weeks, while playing with a huge advantage last Sunday, “The scheduling played a role in the advantage for Pittsburgh against the 49ers last week, having nine to days to prepare while the 49ers had just five days coming off a late Monday night game. The Pittsburgh defense has also allowed nearly 800 yards through two weeks and the Rams could add promising rookie Todd Gurley to the offense this week. The past two years, the Steelers have very few quality road wins with just one road win since 2013 vs. a team that wound up winning more than eight games,” Nelson notes.


NFL expert Vince Akins points out that the Rams have flipped pointspread roles in each of the first three weeks, “We are seeing a kind of early season ping-pong with the Rams lines that does not make a ton of sense. St. Louis has gone from home underdogs in the Week 1 overtime win over the Seahawks to away favorites in Washington in last week’s loss, back to home underdogs here. This is quite a rare series of events and one that favors the home dog again. In fact, no team had a three-week sequence of home dog to road favorite back to home dog in 2014. It did happen four times in 2013 and the teams went 4-0 ATS in the final game, winning straight up each time.”


Colts (-3 ½, 45) at Titans – 1:00 PM EST


Indianapolis has started slow out of the gate with an 0-2 mark following Monday’s 20-7 home loss to the Jets, as the Colts turned the ball over five times. Andrew Luck threw three interceptions, while Frank Gore couldn’t handle a handoff at the goal line, resulting in an Indianapolis turnover in the third quarter down 10-0. The Colts suffered back-to-back losses for only the second time since Luck joined the team in 2012.


The Titans return to Nashville for their home opener after splitting the first two weeks at Tampa Bay and Cleveland. Tennessee’s defense was fortunate to face two young quarterbacks so far, shutting down Jameis Winston in Week 1, but allowing a pair of touchdown passes to Johnny Manziel in a 28-14 setback to the Browns as short favorites. Marcus Mariota compiled 257 yards through the air in his second road start, while connecting on a pair of touchdown passes after the Titans fell behind, 21-0.


So why back the Titans?


Nelson analyzes an improving Tennessee defense, which put up solid numbers through two weeks, “The Titans allowed 373 yards per game last season for one of the NFL’s worst total defenses. While Tennessee has faced inexperienced quarterbacks in the first two weeks, Tampa Bay posted only 273 yards and Cleveland only posted 274 yards with those teams combing to convert just 7/25 on third downs with the quarterbacks completing just 50 percent of passes.”


The defending AFC South champions have plenty of reasons to be concerned says Nelson, “The Bills and Jets have formidable defenses but the Colts are clearly out of sync on offense. Indianapolis has been shutout in both first halves and the team already has committed eight turnovers. The high profile addition of Andre Johnson has produced meager returns so far and the Colts have only rushed for 157 yards. The Colts started 0-2 last season and still made it to the AFC Championship game and while this is not a team that will panic, facing a short week and going on the road to face a divisional rival is not the best situation for a struggling team facing added pressure and scrutiny.”


Handicapper Antony Dinero says this is perfect opportunity for Tennessee to reverse its woes against Indianapolis, “The Colts have no magic elixir for their offensive line woes or injury-riddled secondary. They’re forced to go back on the road on a short week of preparation after losing on Monday night. With Mariota making his home regular-season debut, the Titans should have a pumped up crowd on board to help make things difficult in Nashville and reverse a trend that has seen them lose 12 of 13 to Indianapolis, including seven in a row. It would seem there’s no better time than now for that streak to end, especially if tight end Delanie Walker returns to the lineup after a one-game absence.”

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's Top Action


September 24, 2015




CINCINNATI BENGALS (2-0) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (0-2)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Baltimore -2.5, Total: 44.5


Joe Flacco and the Ravens are almost in a “must win” scenario this weekend when they host the rival Bengals.


A Cincinnati win on Sunday would put Baltimore in serious trouble at 0-3 with the Bengals moving to 3-0. Since 1990 teams that have started 0-2 only make the postseason 12% of the time. Conversely, teams that have started 2-0 over the same time span have made the playoffs 63% of the time.


The Ravens are coming off a truly embarrassing performance in Oakland in which they racked up 493 yards of offense but surrendered 448 to a Raiders offense that hadn’t sniffed 400 yards since 2013. They also have to take better care of the ball on Sunday if they want to win because Cincy is 8-1 ATS since 2013 when forcing two turnovers, the exact number Baltimore finished with in each of its first two games.


The Ravens have dropped four of five overall to Cincy including the past three meetings SU, but they have taken four of five at M&T Bank Stadium. Sunday's game will likely rest on the arm of Baltimore QB Joe Flacco, who is 4-0 SU against the Bengals when he throws a pair of touchdown passes in the game (3-7 when throwing less than 2 TD).


Good news for Ravens fans is that the Bengals are 0-6 ATS since 2013 when coming off consecutive ATS victories.


Cincinnati has been relatively fortunate on the injury front early this season, missing only LB Vontaze Burfict (knee) among its key contributors on either side.


The Ravens wish they could say the same after losing All-Pro DE/LB Terrell Suggs for the year due to an Achilles injury on opening night. TE Dennis Pitta is likely done for the year with a degenerative hip issue that may cost him a promising career, and starting S Matt Elam is on injured reserve with a biceps injury.


The Bengals offensive line flexed its collective muscle in the win over San Diego on Sunday, trampling the Chargers defense to the tune of 175 rushing yards and allowing zero quarterback sacks. Much-maligned RB Gio Bernard had just the second 100-yard game of his career, toting the rock 20 times for 123 yards. Cincy currently sits fifth in the league in rushing, which has opened things up for QB Andy Dalton to find his wealth of talented pass catchers.


The Bengals are the only team in the NFL ranked in the top-10 in scoring offense/defense and total offense/defense. They also have a turnover margin of +3 thanks to Dalton’s hot start of 5 TD and 0 INT while not being sacked yet this season. TE Tyler Eifert is also starting the year on the right foot coming off a 2014 campaign lost to injury. Eifert has more touchdowns (3) in two games this year than in the first 16 games of his career (2 TD).


Surprisingly, Eifert is the team’s leading receiver, posting better numbers than All-Pro WR A.J. Green across the board. DB Adam “PacMan” Jones is also playing fantastic football, leading the team by a wide margin with 19 total tackles. Jones currently ranks second among NFL defensive backs and first among corners with those 19 tackles, which are just four less than the league leaders.


The Bengals defense has been able to dictate the flow to Flacco in recent meetings and will likely look for more of the same this week. Cincy is 6-1 ATS in the past three years when allowing 200-to-250 passing yards including last week over Philip Rivers. The Bengals are 3-1 ATS versus Baltimore in the previous two seasons, and head coach Marvin Lewis is 25-14 ATS in his career with the Bengals in the month of September.


The last time the Ravens were 0-2 to start a season, Rex Ryan coached the defense, George Bush was the president, and the likes of Deion Sanders and Kordell Stewart roamed the sidelines for Brian Billick’s 2005 squad.


The 2015 version of Baltimore is a team seeking an identity, as it no longer has the personnel to be the smash-mouth teams of Jamal Lewis and Billick, nor does it have the deep threats on each side that won a Super Bowl with two Smith receivers streaking downfield.


Prior to last week, the Ravens were 23-1 in the regular season when eclipsing the 400-yard mark offensively under head coach John Harbaugh. And now the Bengals, the lone team to beat them in that stretch, is coming to town this week. Cincy won 23-16 in Baltimore on opening day 2014 despite being outgained 423 to 380. The Ravens committed two turnovers in that game, which is the same number of miscues they have had in both of their 2015 losses.


ATLANTA FALCONS (2-0) at DALLAS COWBOYS (2-0)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Atlanta -1, Total: 44


Two unbeaten teams collide in Big D on Sunday afternoon when the Falcons visit the injury-riddled Cowboys.


Both clubs sit atop their divisions at 2-0, and have even beaten the same two opponents, but that’s where the similarities stop. This was supposed to be a showdown between two of the best receivers in the game catching passes from two of the most accurate and clutch quarterbacks in the league. But now Atlanta QB Matt Ryan and WR Julio Jones will be squaring off against the 2011 Big 12 all-conference team instead of QB Tony Romo (collarbone) and WR Dez Bryant (foot), who are both out indefinitely.


The Falcons won’t be losing any sleep feeling bad for Dallas, having lost Jones and fellow WR Roddy White for substantial time in recent years. Atlanta also lost a key offensive cog this weekend when rookie RB Tevin Coleman went down with a fractured rib against the Giants. Look for second-year RB Devonta Freeman to shoulder the workload in this one, assuming the doubtful Coleman can't go on Sunday. The absence of Coleman will loom large for the Falcons, as it should allow the Cowboys to drop an extra man into coverage to possibly bracket Jones outside.


It will fall on head coach Jason Garrett and defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli to come up with a winning game plan for backup QB Brandon Weeden to execute. In the last three seasons, Dallas is 10-1 ATS when they gain 8+ yards per pass attempt, and under Weeden last week, they averaged over 10 yards per passing play. In Garrett’s tenure, however, Dallas is 3-11 ATS at home off of a division game and just 10-20 ATS at home against the NFC.


But the rest of the Falcons' potent offense could spell trouble for a Cowboys defense that is still without suspended starters DE Greg Hardy and LB Rolando McClain, and lost rookie DE Randy Gregory for at least a month with an ankle issue. Starting S Barry Church (concussion) is also questionable for Sunday.


New Falcons head coach Dan Quinn has had an immediate impact on the defensive side of the ball despite ranking 27th in total defense and 29th against the pass.


Atlanta has done a much better job through two weeks of keeping the opposition out of the end zone, ranking 13th in scoring defense and top-10 in passing touchdowns allowed and interceptions. As for the Falcons’ offense, Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are off to a flying start in 2015. Ryan leads the NFC in passing yardage and nearly half of that has gone to Jones, who is also leading the NFC in receptions and yards. Ryan has to feel good about this one despite being 1-1 against Dallas in his career.


The loss came in Ryan’s second NFL season of 2009 and the win in 2012 didn’t even require a touchdown from him. He has a deep group of pass catchers and would love to turn this game into a shootout with the less-equipped Weeden. Ryan is 14-6 SU as a road favorite in his career, while Weeden possesses a 5-16 career mark as a starter, mostly in Cleveland, but this will be his first start since losing to Arizona 28-17 last year in Dallas.


Weeden’s last win as a starter came in December of 2012 versus Kansas City, he’s since dropped eight consecutive games where his name was called in pregame warm-ups. The 32-year-old quite possibly had the best quarter of his career filling in for Romo in the fourth quarter last week. Weeden led the Cowboys offense on four drives against Philadelphia, and while the numbers aren’t staggering, Weeden himself played well enough to give Dallas fans a decent level of confidence moving forward.


Under his direction, the Weeden-led Cowboys amassed 99 yards on 20 plays (not including final drive taking knees), scored on a 42-yard bomb to WR Terrance Williams, and likely would’ve gotten a field goal had TE Gavin Escobar not fumbled on third down in Eagles territory.


Weeden finished 7-of-7 for 73 yards and that TD, he even had the same distance on his longest scramble as former teammate DeMarco Murray, nine whole yards! The Dallas defense is going to be the key in Romo’s absence, after it absolutely shut down Chip Kelly’s offense. The Cowboys rank sixth in the NFL in scoring and third in total defense. If Atlanta can win the turnover battle, the game is there for the taking, as in the past three years the Falcons are 4-1 ATS when tied or winning the turnover battle.


Dallas has already committed five turnovers this season and that was with Romo under center for 75% of the snaps. Dallas has surrendered just 409 yards through the air thus far, but neither of its first two opponents had Julio Jones out wide to contend with.


CHICAGO BEARS (0-2) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (0-2)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line Seattle -15, Total: 43.5


The defending NFC Champion Seahawks look to avoid an 0-3 hole when they entertain the winless Bears in Sunday's home opener.


An 0-2 start to the 2015 campaign was expected for Chicago, but the last time Seattle began 0-3 was back in 2002 when star LB Bobby Wagner was in elementary school, QB Russell Wilson was an awkward 13-year-old and Pete Carroll was entering his second season at USC. But things are looking up for the Seahawks once-vaunted defense that currently ranks 29th in scoring and 21st against the pass, as the holdout of Pro Bowl S Kam Chancellor ended earlier this week. The defensive rankings are at the worst in the Carroll era and the fourth-worst rank in scoring defense is the lowest in franchise history. This is quite a change from the league’s top-ranked unit in each of the previous three seasons.


Seattle gave up more sacks to the Rams in the season opener (6) than they have delivered to opponents in their two games combined (4). Certainly playing against MVP Aaron Rodgers on the road will hurt your defensive stats, and nobody will deny the Rams are a much-improved team who they also had to play away from their beloved 12th man. But teams that start 0-2 make the playoffs only 12% of the time since 1990 and Super Bowl runner-ups haven’t fared much better.


Since 1992 the Bears are 2-1 ATS in Seattle with the last meeting coming in 2009. But when allowing more than 28 points over the past three seasons, Chicago is just 2-15 ATS, including both games in 2015. The Seahawks should be licking their chops though, as Bears starting QB Jay Cutler will miss the game, giving way to former 2nd-round pick, Jimmy Clausen, who may not have top WR Alshon Jeffery (hamstring). Other notable injuries in this matchup include Chicago CB Tracy Porter (hamstring) and LB Jon Bostic (ankle), as well as Seattle LB Mike Morgan (hamstring) and FB Will Tukuafu (foot).


Chicago hasn’t started the season 0-3 since Dick Jauron’s 2003 squad went 7-9 while blowing through three quarterbacks. For Bears fans that are unhappy with Jay Cutler’s performance over the years, a few weeks of Jimmy Clausen at the helm will have them swooning for Cutler’s quick return from a hamstring injury. Clausen has started 11 games in his career, posting a record of 1-10 with the lone win coming in 2010 against Arizona.


Speaking of the Cardinals, they just pounded Chicago at Soldier Field last week 48-23, intercepting each Bears quarterback once in the process and holding RB Matt Forte to just 61 rushing yards. Chicago also racked up 14 penalties for an astronomical 170 yards, which tied the franchise record, and the 48 points allowed are the most points in a home game in the 95 seasons of Bears football! They also let a rookie take the opening kickoff 108 yards for a touchdown and converted only 2-of-12 third downs.


Seattle desperately needs to get RB Marshawn Lynch going, as his 3.5 yards per carry is a career low and the Seahawks have zero rushing touchdowns on the year after leading the NFL in that department in 2014. The Bears are just 2-9 since 2013 when giving up 150+ rushing yards in a game, something that Seattle accomplished nine times last season. Many pundits touted the acquisition of TE Jimmy Graham as the biggest move of the offseason, but Graham has just seven grabs for 62 yards and one touchdown. Against Green Bay, Graham was targeted only twice for a single catch of 11 yards.


The Seahawks drafted so well at the beginning of the Pete Carroll era, yet they’ve never addressed the biggest need on their roster for the last several seasons, a wide receiver of any ilk. The closest they came was with the addition of Percy Harvin in 2013 and that experiment was short-lived and lacked the impact they’d hoped for.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Sunday, September 27

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday's Week 3 NFL betting cheat sheet
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Joe Flacco has been nearly unbeatable at home in the month of September, guiding the Ravens to a 13-1 record. The Ravens are 10-4 ATS in those games.


Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (+1, 44)


* Wideout Julio Jones has been limited in practice this week due to a sore hamstring, but he has been unstoppable in the first two games, scoring twice while tying to the league lead with 22 receptions and ranking second with 276 yards.


* Dallas turned in a superb performance in limiting Philadelphia to 226 yards of total offense and seven yards rushing behind a 14-tackle effort from linebacker Sean Lee, who was named the NFC's Defensive Player of the Week.




Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+3, 45.5)


* The Colts have gone 7-0 straight up and against the spread in the previous seven meetings with the Titans.


* Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota will receive his first taste of AFC South play, as the second overall pick came back to earth following a scintillating four-touchdown performance in the season opener with two fumbles in a 28-14 loss to Cleveland. When asked how he can improve, Mariota matter-of-factly stated that he needed to "keep two hands on the football."




Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3.5, 42.5)


* Oakland has lost 11 straight (5-6 ATS) and 19 of its last 20 on the road (9-10-1 ATS).


* The Cleveland Browns turn back to Josh McCown as they search for their second consecutive victory. Cleveland posted a 28-14 triumph over Tennessee last week behind Johnny Manziel, who threw two touchdown passes for the first time in his brief career as McCown was sidelined with a concussion.




Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 44.5)


* Andy Dalton enters Week 3 as the only quarterback in the league who has started each of his team's first two games and has yet to be sacked or throw an interception.


* Visiting Baltimore in September has not been a pleasant experience of late. Joe Flacco has been nearly unbeatable at home in the month, guiding the Ravens to a 13-1 record. The Ravens are 10-4 ATS in those games.




Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-13.5, 48.5)


* Blake Bortles could be missing one of his biggest weapons with running back Denard Robinson (knee) questionable, but rookie T.J. Yeldon is ready to step up. The Alabama product took on the extra workload with 25 carries in last week’s 23-20 triumph over Miami and managed 75 yards.


* Tom Brady has yet to throw an interception in a league-high 91 pass attempts and threw for seven touchdowns in leading the Patriots to wins over Pittsburgh and Buffalo to begin the campaign. “He has high expectations and high goals for himself,” New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels told reporters. “He knows that it's going to take a tremendous amount of work to continue performing at the level that he wants to play at, and he deserves a lot of credit for that.”




New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-8, 42.5)


* A bit of anomaly for the Saints as quarterback Drew Brees will miss his first game in his 15-year NFL career, meaning Luke McCown has been thrust into the starting role. According to a tweet from Sports Insights, McCown is 2-7 ATS in his NFL career when starting under center.


* The Under has gone 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in Carolina between the Saints and Panthers, including 2014 and 2013.




Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets (-2, 46)


* The Eagles are off to an 0-2 start SU and ATS, have struggled mightily on offense and those problems could be compounded if running back DeMarco Murray is unable to play in the crucial contest. Murray participated in practice Friday but, according to Jeff McLane of The Philadelphia Inquirer, "has to pass a more strenuous session Saturday".


* New York shut down Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts to move to 2-0 and it could have a field day against the Eagles, who are last in the NFL in rushing with just 70 yards in two games.




Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-7, 40.5)


* Jameis Winston has been sacked seven times and lost a fumble in two games, but the offensive line is confident it can protect the young quarterback against Watt and company. “We have a plan,” right tackle Gosder Cherilus told reporters. “Hopefully, the plan will be good enough. If it’s not, we’re going to have to do what we’ve got to do. That’s the game – show up, be at your best, and hopefully your best will be good enough.”


* The Texans are playing their first home game since switching the field at NRG Stadium from natural grass to an artificial surface for the remainder of the season.




San Diego Chargers at Minnesota Vikings (-2, 44.5)

* The Chargers' primary opponent has been themselves as they have turned the ball over six times - second only to Indianapolis (eight).


* Second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is completing 74 percent of his passes (37-for-50) but has thrown for just 384 yards with a touchdown and an interception in two games this season. The second-year quarterback has flourished at home, recording 10 scores (nine passing, one rushing) in his last five starts.




Pittsburgh Steelers at St. Louis Rams (-1, 48)


* The Steelers have led the way in two-point conversions this season, hitting on all three attempts including two last week versus the 49ers. Games with two or more successful 2-point converts are 21-1-1 Over/Under, for a 95.4 percent Over rate. Oh yeah. All-Pro running back Le’Veon Bell returns from a two-game suspension Sunday.


* After passing for 297 yards and a touchdown and rushing for a score against Seattle, offseason acquisition Nick Foles took a step backward versus Washington, going 17-of-32 for 150 yards and a TD. The running game has stalled while awaiting the debut of first-round pick Todd Gurley (knee), as receiver Tavon Austin leads the team with 57 rushing yards.




San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5, 45)


* After rushing for a career-high 168 yards against Minnesota, Carlos Hyde was slowed by a leg contusion and a head injury versus the Steelers, but he is expected to play on Sunday.


* Arizona has traditionally struggled to run the ball but David Johnson showed such a burst during his franchise-best 108-yard kick return for a touchdown last week that coach Bruce Arians stressed that he'd grant the rookie a larger role on Sunday.




Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 41.5)


* Plagued by a nagging hamstring injury, LeSean McCoy returned to practice on Thursday and is prepared to battle both the Dolphins and possible dehydration when he takes the field on Sunday. The electric back rolled up 89 yards on the ground and added three receptions for the second straight week to lead Buffalo, which puts its third-ranked rushing attack (153.5 yards per game) against Miami's 27th-ranked rush defense (142 yards per game).


* The favorite is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings between the two AFC East rivals. Books opened the Dolphins as 2.5-point home favorites, but that is now -2.5.




Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (-14.5, 43.5)


* The absences of Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery will surely put more pressure on Matt Forte, who ranks third in the NFL in both rushing (202 yards) and yards from scrimmage (271).


* The Seahawks’ slow start is especially surprising after playing in the last two Super Bowls, as their once-vaunted defense has allowed 61 points through two games. There’s help on the way, as safety Kam Chancellor ended his holdout this week, but it’s unclear whether or not he will play Sunday.




Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)


* The Broncos remained unbeaten by scoring a pair of touchdowns nine seconds apart in the final minute last week to eke out a stunning 31-24 victory at Kansas City.


* Detroit blew a 21-3 lead in a season-opening defeat at San Diego and trailed the entire way against Minnesota as quarterback Matthew Stafford was hit early and often, requiring X-rays on his ribs and chest afterward.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Sunday, September 27




September a bad month to visit Baltimore, Flacco


Visiting Baltimore in September has not been a pleasant experience of late and it'll be the Cincinnati Bengals who get to taste the Ravens on their home turf Sunday.


Joe Flacco has been nearly unbeatable at home in the month, guiding the Ravens to a 13-1 record and the Ravens have gone 10-4 ATS in those games.


The one loss among those 14 September games, you ask? Why that would be the Bengals in Week 1 last season. Cincy triumphed 23-16, covering as 1-point road dogs.


This time around, the Ravens are 2.5-point home favorites.




Road games have meant trouble for the Raiders


The Oakland Raiders head into Cleveland as losers of 11-straight road games and 19 of their last 20.


Raiders backers haven't felt the sting as badly with Oakland going 5-6 against the spread in its last last 11 and 9-10-1 ATS in those last 20 road dates.


Books opened the Browns as 4-point home favorites but that has since moved to -3.5.




Titans might be the cure for what ails the Colts


It hasn't been the best start for the Indianapolis Colts, but a visit the the Tennessee Titans might be just what the doctor ordered for both the Colts and their backers.


Indy, which is 0-2 straight up and against the spread, has gone 7-0 both SU and ATS in the last seven meetings between the two AFC South rivals, three of those coming in Tennessee.


Books opened the Titans as 3.5-point home underdogs for the meeting, but that has come down to +3 at the time of writing.




Eagles WR Huff questionabe with hamstring injury


While running back DeMarco Murray is expected to play against the New York Jets on Sunday, wide receiver Josh Huff's status is in doubt.


Huff was a surprise addition to the injury report Saturday, listed as questionable with a hamstring injury.


Huff has four catches for 39 yards this season.


Murray also is listed as questionable, but he is expected to play despite missing part of practice Wednesday and all of Thursday with a hamstring injury suffered Wednesday.


Murray, the NFL's rushing leader last season with 1,845 yards, has been held to just 11 yards on 21 attempts this season for the winless Eagles.

 

[CNOTES]

Gridiron Angles - Week 3


September 26, 2015




NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:


-- The Cowboys are 12-0 ATS (12.3 ppg) since 2000 as a dog vs an opponent that allows a completion rate of more than 65.2 percent.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:


-- The Bills are 0-10 ATS (-17.45 ppg) since 2010 on the road as a dog after a home game where they loss and failed to cover.


TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:


-- Tom Brady is 0-9 ATS (-10.1 ppg) since December 2009 when they are favored by more than a TD after a game where they threw for at least 340 yards.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:


-- The Patriots are 17-0 OU (7.3 ppg) since December 12, 2004 as a home favorite after a road win that went over the total by more than seven points.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:


-- The Chargers are 0-10 OU (-14.80 ppg) since Oct 24, 2004 as a dog off a game as an away dog of more than three points.


NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:


-- The Cardinals are 0-11 OU when the line is within 3.5 of pick vs a divisional opponent in their first match-up of the season.


NFL DFS STAT OF THE WEEK:


-- Since 2012, the Seahawks have played 12 games coming off a game where Marshawn Lynch was given no more than 15 carries. In these games Lynch has actually exceeded his average workload, as he has received 20 carries per game, and has produced a strong 97 rushing yards per game.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 3


September 26, 2015




The ‘under’ produced an 8-7-1 record last week and the bookmakers were delighted to see both the Sunday and Monday night games go ‘under’ their totals.. Through two weeks, the ‘over’ is 16-15-1.


I think it’s been a great back and forth in the totals market but I did notice one thing for Week.3. For the first time in a long time, we don’t have any totals in the fifties. A lot of that has to do with matchups but perhaps the league could be going through another cycle where defenses are starting to figure out the offensive schemes.


In case you’re wondering, we’ve had five totals listed in the fifties this season and the ‘under’ is 4-1 in those games. The lone ‘over’ winner was the Cowboys-Giants result in Week 1, which was an early holiday gift for many.


Still Going


I touched on the Thursday Total System last week and I’m hoping everybody has been riding the profits of this angle, which was an easy ‘over’ winner last week in the Patriots-Bills game.


Not familiar with the angle? Real simple…


Find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.


For Week 3, the angle calls for an ‘over’ wager in the Kansas City-Green Bay matchup this Monday since the Chiefs hosted the Broncos in Week 2 at home.


Since the 2013 season, this system has gone 26-6-1 (81%).


Divisional Battles


We’ve got five games to watch in Week 3, all taking place in the early action on Sunday.


New Orleans at Carolina:


The ‘under’ has cashed in three of the last four meetings and despite what many believe the Saints don’t play well on grass, the offense has scored 28, 13, 27, 30 and 34 in their last five trips to Charlotte. No Drew Brees at QB for the Saints has watched this total go from 45 to 42.


Cincinnati at Baltimore:


In three of the last four seasons, the total has gone 1-1 and the recent trend between these teams has seen the ‘under’ cash in Baltimore and go ‘over’ in Cincinnati. QB Andy Dalton takes a lot of heat but the Bengals offense is ranked sixth in points per game (28.5) and seventh in total yards (392.5 YPG). After watching the Ravens surrender 448 yards to the Raiders last week, it’s clear the defense is much different without the presence of Terrell Suggs.


Indianapolis at Tennessee:


Similar to the Ravens and Bengals, total bettors have seen a 1-1 stalemate the last three seasons in this series. Indy’s offense has certainly done its part during this span, averaging 27.6 PPG, but this year’s unit has looked less than stellar through two games. The Titans aren’t in the same class with the Jets and Bills defensively but they’re aren’t terrible. A lot of bettors expecting the bounce back from the Colts and I think the offense will score but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Indy go to 0-3 just because its defense is awful and filled with defensive backs that shouldn’t be in the NFL. The Titans are on the bye next week and while we do have different players on the field, it’s hard to ignore that they’ve allowed 32.3 PPG in the last six games the week before their bye.


San Francisco at Arizona:


The ‘under’ went 2-0 in this series last season and that was with a pair or low totals (41, 38). This week’s number is hovering around 44 and it seems a tad inflated and based off Arizona’s scoring outbursts (31, 48) the first two weeks. A lot of those points came on big plays, a couple from the Cardinals defense too. San Francisco was torched last week at Pittsburgh (18-43) after looking great in Week 1 versus Minnesota (20-3). The one observation about the 49ers is that they like to run, leading the league in 35 attempts per game.


Buffalo at Miami:


These teams have played to three straight ‘under’ tickets and they were all ugly contests. In the last 10 games, the ‘under’ is 8-2 and the most combined points scored during that span was 53. This week’s total is sitting at 42 ½ and the number seems fair considering Buffalo has showed punch offensively (27, 32) and Miami’s defense looked a little suspect in last week’s loss to Jacksonville (23-20). I still like this Dolphins defensive unit and if you break down the box score, the Jags were helped with a couple big plays and key penalties.


Under the Lights


Including the outcome between the Redskins and Giants this past Thursday, the ‘under’ has gone 5-3 in the first eight primetime games of the season and if it wasn’t for a few fourth quarter flurries, the ‘under’ could be 8-0.


Denver at Detroit:


The Broncos and Lions have been tough teams to gauge in the totals market. Denver’s numbers have been bet down in both of their first two games and the sharps cashed easily in Week 1 and lost in Week 2. This total (44 ½) has held steady all week and I think the extra few days off will help Denver’s attack. The Lions defense is ranked 31st in total yards (416 YPG) and 28th in points allowed (29.5 PPG). The strength of Denver is its defense and if it gets up early, I’d expect head coach Gary Kubiak to grind out the clock and get away with a road victory. Detroit saw the ‘over/under’ go 4-4 last season at Ford Field and this is the home opener for the club.


Kansas City at Green Bay:


It’s very hard to go against the Thursday Total System (see above) and it’s also hard to go against Green Bay’s offense at home. The unit is averaging 37.1 PPG in the last 10 games played at Lambeau Field. The Chiefs aren’t a juggernaut on offense but they like to run the football and the Packers are ranked second to last in rush defense (154 YPG). If Kansas City does try to grind out the game, you could see the clock run but you could also see big plays with the play-action game. KC is also exceptional defensively against the run, which makes you believe Green Bay will chuck all night. It’s a high number and the ‘under’ is 3-0 on MNF this season, but I believe both teams will get at least four to five scores each in this game.


Fearless Predictions

The Saints and Buccaneers started off slow and still had a shot but we couldn’t catch any breaks and that was the case with Seattle’s team total too. Fortunately, the teaser cashed and we only dropped a couple cents ($20). The bankroll is still positive ($170) and the card looks good. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!


Best Over: Indianapolis-Tennessee 46


Best Under: Atlanta-Dallas 44 ½


Best Team Total: Over 21 ½ Tennessee


Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 37 Indianapolis-Tennessee
Under 50 Tampa Bay-Houston
Over 40 Kansas City-Green Bay

 

[CNOTES]

SuperContest Picks - Week 3


September 26, 2015


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.


The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.


This year's contest has 1,727 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $906,675, plus the top 50 finishers will collect cash prizes too.


Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.




Week 3


1) Carolina (713)


2) Indianapolis (637)


3) Pittsburgh (439)


4) Baltimore (428)




5) St. Louis (392)


SUPERCONTEST WEEK 3 MATCHUPS & ODDS


Away Team Selections Home Team Selections


Washington (+3.5) 88 N.Y. Giants (-3.5) 145


Pittsburgh (-1.5) 439 St. Louis (+1.5) 392


San Diego (+2.5) 264 Minnesota (-2.5) 209


Tampa Bay (+6.5) 149 Houston (-6.5) 221


Philadelphia (+2.5) 369 N.Y. Jets (-2.5) 279


New Orleans (+4.5) 46 Carolina (-4.5) 713


Jacksonville (+13.5) 123 New England (-13.5) 164


Cincinnati (+2.5) 210 Baltimore (-2.5) 428


Oakland (+3.5) 222 Cleveland (-3.5) 129


Indianapolis (-3) 637 Tennessee (+3) 105


Atlanta (-2) 354 Dallas (+2) 304


San Francisco (+6.5) 233 Arizona (-6.5) 386


Chicago (+14.5) 82 Seattle (-14.5) 264


Buffalo (+3) 440 Miami (-3) 142


Denver (-3) 359 Detroit (+3) 242


Kansas City (+6.5) 242 Green Bay (-6.5) 240

 

[CNOTES]

Payton: Saints QB Brees out Sunday


September 25, 2015


METAIRIE, La. (AP) Drew Brees will be sidelined for New Orleans' game at Carolina on Sunday, when the Saints will try to avoid falling to 0-3.


Brees, who is recovering from a bruised rotator cuff in his right (throwing) shoulder, will be replaced in the lineup by 12-year veteran Luke McCown, Saints coach Sean Payton said Friday.


Payton said resting Brees this weekend was not a difficult decision. Payton also declined to forecast whether Brees would return the following week against Dallas.


''Just where he's at in the rehab and his strength, I think he felt - I think we all felt - like it would be too early, him playing this weekend,'' Payton said. ''He felt like he made progress throughout the week and yet it's still not where it needs to be, or where we would feel comfortable with the strength that he needs.


''This morning, as he was throwing, he just felt like the velocity still wasn't there,'' Payton added.


Sunday's game will mark the first start Brees has missed because of an injury since joining New Orleans in 2006. Brees briefly was in the locker room while it was open to media, but politely chose not to talk about the decision, allowing McCown to absorb the spotlight.


McCown has been with the Saints since 2013 but has yet to complete a regular-season pass with the club. His only attempt was an incompletion on a fake field goal. McCown has not thrown a touchdown pass in a game since he threw five in five games with Tampa Bay in 2007.


But the Saints expect his familiarity with the offense after more than two seasons on the club, combined with his decade-plus of NFL experience, will serve him well when he takes over the offense in a divisional road game.


''We're running the same plays,'' right tackle and offensive captain Zach Strief said when describing how the offense looks with McCown at quarterback. ''You don't last in this league as long as he does at that position without being a guy who knows how to work and how to prepare himself. He's prepared every week and this is no different. I would say he's probably got a little bit stronger of an arm than Drew, just pure arm strength ... but it's the same offense. It doesn't feel all that different.''


Coincidentally, McCown has starred in a national advertising campaign early this season in which he touts the backup systems of a mobile phone company, which he predicts they would ''really shine'' if they had a chance. Now he'll get his chance - and it comes in the same week his brother, Josh, was announced as the starter for Cleveland over Johnny Manziel in the Browns' home game against Oakland.


Brees was hurt on a hit in the second quarter of last Sunday's 26-19 loss at home to Tampa Bay. He never left the game, finishing 24 of 38 for 255 yards and one touchdown. While he won't be in uniform, Brees will travel to Carolina for input to teammates on the sideline. He participated in practice all week on a limited basis.


McCown, who calls Brees one of his ''absolute best friends,'' said the Saints' all-time passer has been working hard to come back and was evidently disappointed by Friday's realization he would not go on Sunday.


''He doesn't give up (practice snaps), much less games,'' McCown said. ''At the same time, he's been tremendously supportive. ... The same way I try to mentally support him he's offered to me, and we'll approach this thing and go win a ball game.''


McCown said he expects to have the same liberty Brees does to adjust play calls at the line of scrimmage, and to have the same number of plays at his disposal. He is eager to play.


''I never got into football hoping to be a backup,'' said McCown, a former Louisiana Tech standout. ''I started and played 45 straight games in college. I never missed a game there. So you don't ever approach something and say, `I hope I don't play today.'


''I'm excited because it's a chance to help our team win. It's not been about me. It's not about Drew. It's about the Saints, and we've got to do whatever we can do to put a win up on the board.''


Notes: Cornerback Keenan Lewis, who returned to practice this week from a preseason hip injury, expects his playing status at Carolina to be decided shortly before kickoff. ... Safety Jairus Byrd (knee) and linebacker Dannell Ellerbe (toe) participated in portions of practice open to reports. However, practice is closed during 11-on-11 drills.

 

[CNOTES]

Short-handed Colts leave 4 players behind for Tennessee trip


September 26, 2015


INDIANAPOLIS (AP) The Colts left home four injured players when they traveled to Tennessee on Saturday.


Tight end Dwayne Allen (left ankle), cornerbacks Greg Toler (neck) and Darius Butler (hip) and linebacker Trent Cole (knee) will not play in Sunday's critical AFC South matchup.


Indy (0-2) has won 13 consecutive division games but is trying to avoid its first 0-3 start since 2011.


The Colts are perilously thin in the secondary without Toler and Butler.


Vontae Davis left Monday night's game with a concussion but has been cleared to play. Jalil Brown and Sheldon Price filled in after Davis was hurt. Price was waived-injured earlier this week, which forced the Colts to put Eric Patterson back on the active roster Friday.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Sunday, September 27

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday Night Football Betting Preview: Broncos at Lions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Broncos remained unbeaten by scoring a pair of touchdowns nine seconds apart in the final minute last week to eke out a stunning 31-24 victory at Kansas City.

Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)

Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos have not looked overly impressive in the young season, but they still have a chance to improve to 3-0 when they visit the winless Detroit Lions on Sunday night. The Broncos remained unbeaten by scoring a pair of touchdowns nine seconds apart in the final minute last week to eke out a stunning 31-24 victory at Kansas City.

“I’m not quite sure I’ve ever been in one quite like that,” Manning said after Bradley Roby returned a fumble for a touchdown with 27 seconds to play in Denver's great escape against the Chiefs. Playing away from home shouldn't faze the Broncos, who set a league record with their 13th straight division road win last week. Detroit has dropped its first two games - both on the road - and is coming off a lackluster performance in a 26-16 loss at Minnesota a week ago. “We’ve got to be more consistent,” Lions coach Jim Caldwell said. “We’re going to make sure that we get ourselves headed in the right direction.”

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Lions as 3.5-point home dogs, but that's down to a field goal. The total opened at 44.5.

INJURY REPORT: Broncos - DE Kenny Anunike (Questionable, knee), LB Lerentee McCray (Questionable, groin), S Omar Bolden (Questionable, foot), DE Derek Wolfe (Elig Week 5, suspension). Lions - QB Matthew Stafford (Questionable, ribs), DT Caraun Reid (Questionable, ankle), LB DeAndre Levy (Doubtful, hip), TE Brandon Pettigrew (Doubtful, hamstring).

WEATHER: N/A

POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-4.0) - Lions (+2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Broncos -3.0

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Broncos were outgained by more than a full yard per play against KC on Thursday Night. They?'ve gained less than four yards per play YTD, ranked No. 32 in total offense. The Lions running game has been non-existent thus far. Leading RB rusher Ameer Abdullah had just six carries for nine yards in the loss at Minnesota."

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U): After failing to produce an offensive touchdown in the season opener, Manning threw for three scores and 256 yards to join Brett Favre as the only quarterbacks with more than 70,000 passing yards. The biggest concern for Denver is getting a dismal ground game untracked - running back C.J. Anderson has rushed for only 56 yards on 24 carries and the Broncos ranked 29th in the league with an average of 65.0 yards per game. The Broncos' defense has played superbly in the first two games, registering seven sacks and four interceptions while leading the league with an average of 133.5 passing yards allowed.

ABOUT THE LIONS (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Detroit blew a 21-3 lead in a season-opening defeat at San Diego and trailed the entire way against Minnesota as quarterback Matthew Stafford was hit early and often, requiring X-rays on his ribs and chest afterward. Calvin Johnson was invisible in the opener before hauling in 10 catches for 83 yards and a TD last week, but rookie running back Ameer Abdullah was held to nine yards after an impressive 94-yard rushing performance in his NFL debut. Plugging the void left by tackle Ndamukong Suh has been a huge issue for the Lions, who are yielding 147.5 yards on the ground after leading the league (69.3) last season.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games on fieldturf.
* Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 17-3-1 in Broncos last 21 games on fieldturf.
* Under is 13-3 in Lions last 16 games following a ATS loss.

CONSENSUS: Sixty-four percent of users are backing the visiting Broncos.

 

[CNOTES]

Eddie Lacy, Davante Adams return to Packers practice


September 25, 2015


GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) Davante Adams made the cuts and ran close to full speed on his injured ankle in Green Bay's practice. Now the starting receiver's availability for Monday night's game against Kansas City will depend on whether he can do all that while absorbing contact.


There is one more practice left this weekend before the Packers can determine whether Adams and running back Eddie Lacy are available against the Chiefs. Lacy also has an ankle injury.


Those are two more important names on the injury list for an offense that has already lost wide receiver Jordy Nelson to a season-ending right knee injury. Receiver Randall Cobb is playing while recovering from a sprained right shoulder.


Adams said thinking about his ankle injury is ''really the thing that holds me back right now ... rather than just playing. But with time, all that will go away and I'll be all right.''


So far, Adams and Lacy appear to be making good progress. The duo returned to practice Friday on a limited basis, taking part in individual drills after missing a day.


The extra day off, with the schedule pushed back by a day for a Monday night game, has helped.


It sure didn't seem like Adams would be OK on Sunday night during the 27-17 win over Seattle. Adams was carted to the locker room in the second quarter after favoring his left foot.


Getting treatment inside Lambeau Field, Adams heard the roars of fans. His adrenaline was pumping. He wanted to get back on the field.


He did so, albeit a bit hobbled, in the second half.


''After the game, overnight it got a lot more sore and a lot more swelling,'' Adams said. ''I'm just trying to do what I've got to do now so I can get right.''


The good news for the Packers is they got effective contributions down the stretch from rookie Ty Montgomery, who would step up Monday night for Adams.


''Unfortunately we had an injury, he had to step in. He had a ball thrown his way, he made a play, he was able to break some tackles,'' Cobb said. ''That's the kind of player that we thought he would be.''


The Packers already have a proven backup at running back in James Starks, who ran for 95 yards on 20 carries. Lacy, who left in the first quarter, did not return against Seattle.


After practice Friday, Lacy said he had played through an ankle injury during his rookie season two years ago when he was able to ''tape it and spat it.''


This injury was different. Lacy couldn't put pressure on it, even after the training staff completely re-taped his ankle and added another layer of black tape around his shoe.


Lacy labeled the injury a ''day-to-day thing.


''We're not ruling anything out,'' Lacy said. ''If I wake up tomorrow and I don't feel like I went backwards, then rehab is definitely going to make it feel better for game time.''


NOTES:


Cobb was a full participant at practice for a second straight day, while backup CB Demetri Goodson (hamstring) missed practice a second straight day. ... LB Mike Neal (groin) was held out Friday after being limited on Thursday. ... S Morgan Burnett (calf) was limited. He missed the season opener against Chicago with the same injury.