NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 16
Sunday's games
Bears (5-9) @ Buccaneers (6-8)-- Lovie Smith was 81-63 in nine years as Chicago's coach, winning NFC in third year, going 1-1 in playoffs next six years so they fired him. Both teams here come in on skids; Bucs lost three of last four games, but had three extra days to prep after loss in St Louis. Bears lost last three, giving up 29.3 ppg (11 TDs/30 drives); they won four of last five games with Bucs, with four of five decided by 6 or less points- two went OT. This is Chicago's first visit here in 10 years. NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 7-7 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 9-3. Last three Chicago games went over total; three of last four Buc games stayed under.
Panthers (14-0) @ Falcons (7-7)-- Carolina (-8.5) spanked Falcons 38-0 at home two weeks ago, outgaining them 424-230 in game that was 28-0 at half. Panthers are 5-1 in last six series games, winning 21-20/34-3 in last two visits here- they're 7-0 on the road after 38-35 win in Swamp LW, when they blew 35-7 lead. Atlanta snapped skid at six last week; they're 1-9 vs spread in last 10 games- they're 2-5 SU in last seven after 5-0 start- they lost last three home games, are 3-1 as underdogs, 1-0 at home. Will Rivera rest banged-up guys or go for 16-0 season? Six of last eight Carolina games went over total; last eight Atlanta games stayed under. Underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this year.
Cowboys (4-10) @ Bills (6-8)-- Weather forecast is 47 degrees, 90% chance of rain for Kellen Moore's first NFL start- Boise alum is in his 4th NFL season, saw his first game action LW in loss to Jets (15-25/158, one TD, three INT). Dallas is 3-4 on road 2-4 as road dogs; they're 1-9 with backup QB starting (Moore is 3rd backup QB to start this year). Bills lost four of last five games; they won 33-17/30-21 in two home games since Halloween, running ball for 453 yards- they've run for 193 ypg in last three weeks. Pokes are -10 in turnovers last five weeks. NFC East non-divisional road dogs are 4-8 vs spread; AFC East home faves are 8-5-1. Five of last six Dallas games stayed under total; three of last four Buffalo games went over.
Jaguars (5-9) @ Saints (5-9)-- Brees hurt his foot Monday, is ?? to go here in series where home team won four of five meetings. Jaguars lost 17-13/41-24 in two visits here; they've lost three of last four games overall, are 3-2-1 vs spread on road, with losses by 34-3-7-5-3, and win at Baltimore. Saints lost six of last seven tilts thanks to a hideous defense; they've allowed 35.3 ppg in last seven games. Saints are 3-4 at home, 1-3-1 as home favorite- they allowed 166.4 rushing ypg the last five weeks. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 6-9 vs spread; NFC South home favorites are 7-7. Over is 3-1 in last four Jax games, 5-2 in last seven Saint games. New Orleans gave up 39.8 ppg in last four home games (1-3 SU).
49ers (4-10) @ Lions (5-9)-- Detroit is 4-2 since its bye; only one of the wins was by more than eight points. Lions are 3-4 at home, 1-2 as home favorites- they're 1-9 vs spread when allowing more than 16 points. 49ers are 1-4 since their bye, are 2-5 as road dogs, losing by 25-40-3-21-16-14 points- win was in Chicago. Niners won nine in row vs Detroit, with seven of nine wins by 7+ points; they're 4-1 in last five trips here, with loss in '95. NFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 2-7 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 8-4. Six of last eight Niner games stayed under total; over is 7-3 in last ten Lion games. 49ers are 2-8 vs spread in its 10 losses, 4-7 vs the spread as an underdog of 6+ points.
Browns (3-11) @ Chiefs (9-5)-- Red-hot Chiefs won last eight games (7-1 vs spread) are 2-3 as home favorites, with wins by 10-8-7 points. KC is 4-3 in last seven series games; three of four wins were by 6 or less points. Cleveland lost eight of last nine games (1-7 vs spread in last eight); they're 2-5 as road underdogs, losing last four away games, all by 17+ points. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 6-5-1 vs spread; AFC West home favorites are 6-6. Chiefs have been plus in turnovers in nine of last ten games, with +19 TO ratio after being -4 in first four games. Five of last six Cleveland games stayed under; three of last four Chief games went over the total. KC has four defensive touchdowns in its last five games.
Colts (6-8) @ Dolphins (5-9)-- Indy hanging onto faint hope for an unlikely division title after home loss to Texans and their 5th-string QB LW. Colts won four of last five series games; all five were decided by 6 or less points, but Indy lost last three games overall by 35-35-6 points, scoring two TDs on last 36 drives- they've run for just 60 ypg in five post-bye games. 40-year old backup QB Hasselbeck is playing hurt and it shows. Miami lost six of last eight games (1-7 vs spread); they're 2-3 as favorite- its last two wins were by total of three points. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 6-9 vs spread; AFC East home favorites are 8-5-1. Five of Colts' last six road games went over total; four of last six Miami games stayed under.
Patriots (12-2) @ Jets (8-6)-- Pats (-7) won first meeting 30-23 in Week 7, running it only nine times for 16 yards whole game; they converted 8-16 on third down, were +1 in turnovers. Jets are +18 in turnovers in eight wins, -13 in six losses. Pats won eight of last nine series games; five of last seven were decided by 3 or less points. NE won three of last four visits here, with last two decided by total of four points; they're 2-3 as road favorites this year. Jets are playing for playoff spot; they won, covered last four games; they're 6-2 at home, getting extra home game because of Giant game. Jets are 2-0-1 as an underdog this year. Three of last four Patriot games went over total; five of last six Jet games stayed under.
Texans (7-7) @ Titans (6-8)-- Houston is game up with two to play for AFC South crown; they beat Titans 20-6 (-3.5) in first meeting in Week 8- Tennessee was just 1-12 on third down, averaged 2.3 ypa and was -3 in turnovers. Texans are 6-1 in last seven series games, winning three of last four here, with all three wins by 14+. Six of last seven Texan games stayed under the total. Tennessee lost five of its last six games (0-5-1 vs spread); they're 1-9 vs spread when scoring less than 33, a figure Texans allowed twice all year. Houston allowed 17 or less points in six of its seven wins; Titans scored 20+ in only two of last six games. Underdogs are 5-3-1 against spread in AFC South divisional games, 1-0 at home.
Packers (10-4) @ Cardinals (12-2)-- Arizona won its last eight games; they're 2-4 as home favorite, with only SU loss to Rams in Week 4- Cards were -3 in turnovers in both their losses. Green Bay won/covered last three games, starting with Hail Mary win in Detroit that ended 1-4 skid. Packers are 5-2 on road this year- they scored 16 or less points in three of four losses- they're 7-2 in last nine series games; their last visit here was in '09 playoff game. Arizona is +10 in turnovers in last four games, as offense hasn't turned ball over once. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 9-3 vs spread; NFC West home favorites are 6-6. Under is 8-3 in last 11 Green Bay games, 3-1 in four Cardinal tilts.
Rams (6-8) @ Seahawks (9-5)-- Seattle (-4) lost 34-31 in OT at St Louis in its opener, despite scoring TD on both defense/special teams; they won/covered five in a row overall, with four of five wins by 16+ points. Hawks are 4-3 as home favorites; over is 4-1-1 in their last six games, but 2-8 in Rams' last ten games. St Louis is 0-5 vs the spread outdoors this year- their only road cover was Week 4 win at Arizona. Rams are 0-10 in Seattle since beating Seahawks 27-20 in '04 playoff game, when both of them got into playoffs at 8-8. Seattle allowed total of 26 points in last three games (one TD on last 26 drives); they're 4-0 as double digit favorite this year- they're +8 in turnovers last six games- they lost in Week 1 despite +2 turnover ratio.
Steelers (9-5) @ Ravens (4-10)-- Baltimore (-2.5) beat Steelers 23-20 in OT back in Week 4, in game Vick started for Pitt. Ravens are now down to #3 QB Clausen; in his three starts this year, his offense was outscored 21-20 by other teams' defense, special teams- not good. Baltimore won four of last five games with Steelers, 3-1 in last four here, but absence of competent QB trumps all that. Steelers are playing for playoff spot; they've won/covered last three games, outscoring Denver 21-0 in 2nd half of comeback win LW. In last three games, Pitt outscored foes 62-13 in second half; they're 5-1 as favorite this year; only non-cover was 38-35 win over Raiders in Week 9. Last four Pittsburgh games went over the total.
Giants (6-8) @ Vikings (9-5)-- No Beckham for Giants in game flexed to night start in frigid Twin Cities; gametime temp expected to be in mid-teens. Giants won last two series games at home 21-3/23-7 after Vikings had won four in row- this is first visit here for Giants since '09. Minnesota is 6-2 vs spread as favorite; they lost two of last three at home, losing to Pack/Seattle. Giants are 5-2-1 as underdogs this year, are 3-4 SU on road, with three of four losses by 6 or less points. Vikings clinch spot in playoffs with win here; Giants were eliminated if Redskins won Saturday. NFC East non-divisional road dogs are 4-8 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 8-4. Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Viking games, 1-3 in last four Giant road games.
Monday's game
Bengals (11-3) @ Broncos (10-4)-- Denver isn't in playoffs yet; they've been shut out in second half of last three games (36-0), losing last two weeks after leading by 12+ points at half. Denver win here vaults them above Bengals into #2 seed, which includes first round bye. Broncos' 37-28 loss at Cincy LY was their first in last five games with Bengals, but Cincy lost last nine visits here- their last win in Denver was back in '75. Bengals won McCarron's first NFL start LW, but three TD drives totaled just 67 yards. In four of last six games, Denver lost the field position battle by 8+ yards. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 6-5-1 vs spread; AFC West home favorites are 6-6. Six of last eight Cincy games stayed under total.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 16
Sunday's games
Bears (5-9) @ Buccaneers (6-8)-- Lovie Smith was 81-63 in nine years as Chicago's coach, winning NFC in third year, going 1-1 in playoffs next six years so they fired him. Both teams here come in on skids; Bucs lost three of last four games, but had three extra days to prep after loss in St Louis. Bears lost last three, giving up 29.3 ppg (11 TDs/30 drives); they won four of last five games with Bucs, with four of five decided by 6 or less points- two went OT. This is Chicago's first visit here in 10 years. NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 7-7 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 9-3. Last three Chicago games went over total; three of last four Buc games stayed under.
Panthers (14-0) @ Falcons (7-7)-- Carolina (-8.5) spanked Falcons 38-0 at home two weeks ago, outgaining them 424-230 in game that was 28-0 at half. Panthers are 5-1 in last six series games, winning 21-20/34-3 in last two visits here- they're 7-0 on the road after 38-35 win in Swamp LW, when they blew 35-7 lead. Atlanta snapped skid at six last week; they're 1-9 vs spread in last 10 games- they're 2-5 SU in last seven after 5-0 start- they lost last three home games, are 3-1 as underdogs, 1-0 at home. Will Rivera rest banged-up guys or go for 16-0 season? Six of last eight Carolina games went over total; last eight Atlanta games stayed under. Underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this year.
Cowboys (4-10) @ Bills (6-8)-- Weather forecast is 47 degrees, 90% chance of rain for Kellen Moore's first NFL start- Boise alum is in his 4th NFL season, saw his first game action LW in loss to Jets (15-25/158, one TD, three INT). Dallas is 3-4 on road 2-4 as road dogs; they're 1-9 with backup QB starting (Moore is 3rd backup QB to start this year). Bills lost four of last five games; they won 33-17/30-21 in two home games since Halloween, running ball for 453 yards- they've run for 193 ypg in last three weeks. Pokes are -10 in turnovers last five weeks. NFC East non-divisional road dogs are 4-8 vs spread; AFC East home faves are 8-5-1. Five of last six Dallas games stayed under total; three of last four Buffalo games went over.
Jaguars (5-9) @ Saints (5-9)-- Brees hurt his foot Monday, is ?? to go here in series where home team won four of five meetings. Jaguars lost 17-13/41-24 in two visits here; they've lost three of last four games overall, are 3-2-1 vs spread on road, with losses by 34-3-7-5-3, and win at Baltimore. Saints lost six of last seven tilts thanks to a hideous defense; they've allowed 35.3 ppg in last seven games. Saints are 3-4 at home, 1-3-1 as home favorite- they allowed 166.4 rushing ypg the last five weeks. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 6-9 vs spread; NFC South home favorites are 7-7. Over is 3-1 in last four Jax games, 5-2 in last seven Saint games. New Orleans gave up 39.8 ppg in last four home games (1-3 SU).
49ers (4-10) @ Lions (5-9)-- Detroit is 4-2 since its bye; only one of the wins was by more than eight points. Lions are 3-4 at home, 1-2 as home favorites- they're 1-9 vs spread when allowing more than 16 points. 49ers are 1-4 since their bye, are 2-5 as road dogs, losing by 25-40-3-21-16-14 points- win was in Chicago. Niners won nine in row vs Detroit, with seven of nine wins by 7+ points; they're 4-1 in last five trips here, with loss in '95. NFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 2-7 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 8-4. Six of last eight Niner games stayed under total; over is 7-3 in last ten Lion games. 49ers are 2-8 vs spread in its 10 losses, 4-7 vs the spread as an underdog of 6+ points.
Browns (3-11) @ Chiefs (9-5)-- Red-hot Chiefs won last eight games (7-1 vs spread) are 2-3 as home favorites, with wins by 10-8-7 points. KC is 4-3 in last seven series games; three of four wins were by 6 or less points. Cleveland lost eight of last nine games (1-7 vs spread in last eight); they're 2-5 as road underdogs, losing last four away games, all by 17+ points. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 6-5-1 vs spread; AFC West home favorites are 6-6. Chiefs have been plus in turnovers in nine of last ten games, with +19 TO ratio after being -4 in first four games. Five of last six Cleveland games stayed under; three of last four Chief games went over the total. KC has four defensive touchdowns in its last five games.
Colts (6-8) @ Dolphins (5-9)-- Indy hanging onto faint hope for an unlikely division title after home loss to Texans and their 5th-string QB LW. Colts won four of last five series games; all five were decided by 6 or less points, but Indy lost last three games overall by 35-35-6 points, scoring two TDs on last 36 drives- they've run for just 60 ypg in five post-bye games. 40-year old backup QB Hasselbeck is playing hurt and it shows. Miami lost six of last eight games (1-7 vs spread); they're 2-3 as favorite- its last two wins were by total of three points. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 6-9 vs spread; AFC East home favorites are 8-5-1. Five of Colts' last six road games went over total; four of last six Miami games stayed under.
Patriots (12-2) @ Jets (8-6)-- Pats (-7) won first meeting 30-23 in Week 7, running it only nine times for 16 yards whole game; they converted 8-16 on third down, were +1 in turnovers. Jets are +18 in turnovers in eight wins, -13 in six losses. Pats won eight of last nine series games; five of last seven were decided by 3 or less points. NE won three of last four visits here, with last two decided by total of four points; they're 2-3 as road favorites this year. Jets are playing for playoff spot; they won, covered last four games; they're 6-2 at home, getting extra home game because of Giant game. Jets are 2-0-1 as an underdog this year. Three of last four Patriot games went over total; five of last six Jet games stayed under.
Texans (7-7) @ Titans (6-8)-- Houston is game up with two to play for AFC South crown; they beat Titans 20-6 (-3.5) in first meeting in Week 8- Tennessee was just 1-12 on third down, averaged 2.3 ypa and was -3 in turnovers. Texans are 6-1 in last seven series games, winning three of last four here, with all three wins by 14+. Six of last seven Texan games stayed under the total. Tennessee lost five of its last six games (0-5-1 vs spread); they're 1-9 vs spread when scoring less than 33, a figure Texans allowed twice all year. Houston allowed 17 or less points in six of its seven wins; Titans scored 20+ in only two of last six games. Underdogs are 5-3-1 against spread in AFC South divisional games, 1-0 at home.
Packers (10-4) @ Cardinals (12-2)-- Arizona won its last eight games; they're 2-4 as home favorite, with only SU loss to Rams in Week 4- Cards were -3 in turnovers in both their losses. Green Bay won/covered last three games, starting with Hail Mary win in Detroit that ended 1-4 skid. Packers are 5-2 on road this year- they scored 16 or less points in three of four losses- they're 7-2 in last nine series games; their last visit here was in '09 playoff game. Arizona is +10 in turnovers in last four games, as offense hasn't turned ball over once. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 9-3 vs spread; NFC West home favorites are 6-6. Under is 8-3 in last 11 Green Bay games, 3-1 in four Cardinal tilts.
Rams (6-8) @ Seahawks (9-5)-- Seattle (-4) lost 34-31 in OT at St Louis in its opener, despite scoring TD on both defense/special teams; they won/covered five in a row overall, with four of five wins by 16+ points. Hawks are 4-3 as home favorites; over is 4-1-1 in their last six games, but 2-8 in Rams' last ten games. St Louis is 0-5 vs the spread outdoors this year- their only road cover was Week 4 win at Arizona. Rams are 0-10 in Seattle since beating Seahawks 27-20 in '04 playoff game, when both of them got into playoffs at 8-8. Seattle allowed total of 26 points in last three games (one TD on last 26 drives); they're 4-0 as double digit favorite this year- they're +8 in turnovers last six games- they lost in Week 1 despite +2 turnover ratio.
Steelers (9-5) @ Ravens (4-10)-- Baltimore (-2.5) beat Steelers 23-20 in OT back in Week 4, in game Vick started for Pitt. Ravens are now down to #3 QB Clausen; in his three starts this year, his offense was outscored 21-20 by other teams' defense, special teams- not good. Baltimore won four of last five games with Steelers, 3-1 in last four here, but absence of competent QB trumps all that. Steelers are playing for playoff spot; they've won/covered last three games, outscoring Denver 21-0 in 2nd half of comeback win LW. In last three games, Pitt outscored foes 62-13 in second half; they're 5-1 as favorite this year; only non-cover was 38-35 win over Raiders in Week 9. Last four Pittsburgh games went over the total.
Giants (6-8) @ Vikings (9-5)-- No Beckham for Giants in game flexed to night start in frigid Twin Cities; gametime temp expected to be in mid-teens. Giants won last two series games at home 21-3/23-7 after Vikings had won four in row- this is first visit here for Giants since '09. Minnesota is 6-2 vs spread as favorite; they lost two of last three at home, losing to Pack/Seattle. Giants are 5-2-1 as underdogs this year, are 3-4 SU on road, with three of four losses by 6 or less points. Vikings clinch spot in playoffs with win here; Giants were eliminated if Redskins won Saturday. NFC East non-divisional road dogs are 4-8 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 8-4. Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Viking games, 1-3 in last four Giant road games.
Monday's game
Bengals (11-3) @ Broncos (10-4)-- Denver isn't in playoffs yet; they've been shut out in second half of last three games (36-0), losing last two weeks after leading by 12+ points at half. Denver win here vaults them above Bengals into #2 seed, which includes first round bye. Broncos' 37-28 loss at Cincy LY was their first in last five games with Bengals, but Cincy lost last nine visits here- their last win in Denver was back in '75. Bengals won McCarron's first NFL start LW, but three TD drives totaled just 67 yards. In four of last six games, Denver lost the field position battle by 8+ yards. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 6-5-1 vs spread; AFC West home favorites are 6-6. Six of last eight Cincy games stayed under total.
NFL
Sunday, December 27
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Sunday Night Football betting preview: Giants at Vikings
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Eli and the Giants will have to make due without Odell Beckham Sunday night against Minnesota.
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5, 44.5)
Eli Manning will be without top wideout Odell Beckham Jr. on Sunday when the New York Giants continue their pursuit of the NFC East title with a road tilt versus the Minnesota Vikings. Manning found Beckham with his career-high 32nd touchdown pass last week, but the Giants' spirited rally came up short in a 38-35 setback to undefeated Carolina.
The testy matchup led to the one-game suspension of Beckham, who was flagged three times for unnecessary roughness against Panthers cornerback Josh Norman - with one altercation coming after a helmet-to-helmet hit where neither competitor was involved in the play. Replacing Beckham will be a tall task for the Giants, as the second-year star leads the team in receptions (91), yards (1,396) and touchdowns (13). "Outside of Eli Manning, (Beckham's) their best player," said Minnesota's Adrian Peterson, who told reporters that he texted his support for the wideout and didn't think his actions warranted a suspension. Peterson sprained his left ankle in last week's 38-17 victory over NFC North rival Chicago, but the NFL's leading rusher said he expects to play Sunday as Minnesota bids for a playoff berth.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.
LINE HISTORY: The Vikings opened as 6.5-point favorites, but it was the Giants who got the early support, moving the line to Vikings -5. Since then however, the line has come back to the Vikes and is back at the opening number. The total has been bet down a point-and-a-half from 46 to 44.5
INJURY REPORT:
Giants - DE G. Selvie (probable Sunday, concussion), RB O. Darkwa (probable Sunday, illness), T E. FLowers (probable Sunday, illness), WR D. Harris (questionable Sunday, knee), CB J. Hosley (questionable Sunday, undisclosed), LB D. Kennard (out Sunday, hamstring), S C. Taylor (out Sunday, concussion), WR O. Beckham (out Sunday, suspension), DT M. Kuhn (I-R, knee), LB J. Morris (I-R, quadricep), FB N. Whitlock (I-R, knee).
Vikings - WR C. Johnson (probable Sunday, ankle), RB J. McKinnon (probable Sunday, concussion), CB J. Robinson (probable Sunday, concussion), TE R. Ellison (probable Sunday, ankle), DE E. Griffen (probable Sunday, shoulder), DT L. Joseph (probable Sunday, foot), S H. Smith (probable Sunday, hamstring), LB A. Barr (probable Sunday, groin), RB A. Peterson (probable Sunday, ankle), C J. Sullivan (questionable Sunday, back), DE S. Crichton (I-R, concussion).
WEATHER REPORT: It will be a clear but chilly night for football in Minnesota. Temperatures will hover around a fridgid 20 degrees for the game, with a six-to-eight mile per hour wind blowing across the field from north to south.
POWER RANKINGS: Giants (0) - Vikings (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Vikings -4.5
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Adrian Peterson, talking about the recent improvement of QB Teddy Bridgewater: ?These last two weeks, I've seen a different look in his eyes. I really don't have to say much to him. Meanwhile, the betting markets moved against the Giants two full points when Odell Beckham Jr?s one game suspension was announced."
ABOUT THE GIANTS (6-8, 8-5-1 ATS, 9-5 O/U): Rashad Jennings became the first New York running back to rush for a triple-digit yardage total this season when he rolled up 107 versus the Panthers. The 30-year-old, who found the end zone for the first time since Week 4, has rushed 38 times for 188 yards in the last two contests after mustering just 28 yards total in the previous two. Wide receiver Rueben Randle, who should see an uptick in targets with Beckham suspended, has scored in back-to-back contests and four of his last six.
ABOUT THE VIKINGS (9-5, 11-3 ATS, 3-10-1 O/U): Should Green Bay falter against Arizona earlier in the day, Minnesota's contest on Sunday night would be rendered somewhat meaningless ahead of a pivotal Week 17 showdown with the Packers for the NFC North title. While Mike Zimmer admitted he would like to "be smart" in his approach, the coach expressed more of a desire to protect his players that are dealing with slight injuries. Teddy Bridgewater has been heating up of late, throwing for 335 yards against Arizona in Week 14 before recording a career-best five touchdowns (four passing, one rushing) versus the Bears.
TRENDS:
* Giants are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in December.
* Vikings are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in December.
* Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 vs. NFC.
* Under is 11-3-1 in Vikings last 15 games overall.
CONSENSUS: Fifty-five percent of bettors are siding with the Giants in this NFC matchup. As for the total, 64 percent of wagers are on the over.
Sunday, December 27
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Sunday Night Football betting preview: Giants at Vikings
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Eli and the Giants will have to make due without Odell Beckham Sunday night against Minnesota.
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5, 44.5)
Eli Manning will be without top wideout Odell Beckham Jr. on Sunday when the New York Giants continue their pursuit of the NFC East title with a road tilt versus the Minnesota Vikings. Manning found Beckham with his career-high 32nd touchdown pass last week, but the Giants' spirited rally came up short in a 38-35 setback to undefeated Carolina.
The testy matchup led to the one-game suspension of Beckham, who was flagged three times for unnecessary roughness against Panthers cornerback Josh Norman - with one altercation coming after a helmet-to-helmet hit where neither competitor was involved in the play. Replacing Beckham will be a tall task for the Giants, as the second-year star leads the team in receptions (91), yards (1,396) and touchdowns (13). "Outside of Eli Manning, (Beckham's) their best player," said Minnesota's Adrian Peterson, who told reporters that he texted his support for the wideout and didn't think his actions warranted a suspension. Peterson sprained his left ankle in last week's 38-17 victory over NFC North rival Chicago, but the NFL's leading rusher said he expects to play Sunday as Minnesota bids for a playoff berth.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.
LINE HISTORY: The Vikings opened as 6.5-point favorites, but it was the Giants who got the early support, moving the line to Vikings -5. Since then however, the line has come back to the Vikes and is back at the opening number. The total has been bet down a point-and-a-half from 46 to 44.5
INJURY REPORT:
Giants - DE G. Selvie (probable Sunday, concussion), RB O. Darkwa (probable Sunday, illness), T E. FLowers (probable Sunday, illness), WR D. Harris (questionable Sunday, knee), CB J. Hosley (questionable Sunday, undisclosed), LB D. Kennard (out Sunday, hamstring), S C. Taylor (out Sunday, concussion), WR O. Beckham (out Sunday, suspension), DT M. Kuhn (I-R, knee), LB J. Morris (I-R, quadricep), FB N. Whitlock (I-R, knee).
Vikings - WR C. Johnson (probable Sunday, ankle), RB J. McKinnon (probable Sunday, concussion), CB J. Robinson (probable Sunday, concussion), TE R. Ellison (probable Sunday, ankle), DE E. Griffen (probable Sunday, shoulder), DT L. Joseph (probable Sunday, foot), S H. Smith (probable Sunday, hamstring), LB A. Barr (probable Sunday, groin), RB A. Peterson (probable Sunday, ankle), C J. Sullivan (questionable Sunday, back), DE S. Crichton (I-R, concussion).
WEATHER REPORT: It will be a clear but chilly night for football in Minnesota. Temperatures will hover around a fridgid 20 degrees for the game, with a six-to-eight mile per hour wind blowing across the field from north to south.
POWER RANKINGS: Giants (0) - Vikings (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Vikings -4.5
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Adrian Peterson, talking about the recent improvement of QB Teddy Bridgewater: ?These last two weeks, I've seen a different look in his eyes. I really don't have to say much to him. Meanwhile, the betting markets moved against the Giants two full points when Odell Beckham Jr?s one game suspension was announced."
ABOUT THE GIANTS (6-8, 8-5-1 ATS, 9-5 O/U): Rashad Jennings became the first New York running back to rush for a triple-digit yardage total this season when he rolled up 107 versus the Panthers. The 30-year-old, who found the end zone for the first time since Week 4, has rushed 38 times for 188 yards in the last two contests after mustering just 28 yards total in the previous two. Wide receiver Rueben Randle, who should see an uptick in targets with Beckham suspended, has scored in back-to-back contests and four of his last six.
ABOUT THE VIKINGS (9-5, 11-3 ATS, 3-10-1 O/U): Should Green Bay falter against Arizona earlier in the day, Minnesota's contest on Sunday night would be rendered somewhat meaningless ahead of a pivotal Week 17 showdown with the Packers for the NFC North title. While Mike Zimmer admitted he would like to "be smart" in his approach, the coach expressed more of a desire to protect his players that are dealing with slight injuries. Teddy Bridgewater has been heating up of late, throwing for 335 yards against Arizona in Week 14 before recording a career-best five touchdowns (four passing, one rushing) versus the Bears.
TRENDS:
* Giants are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in December.
* Vikings are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in December.
* Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 vs. NFC.
* Under is 11-3-1 in Vikings last 15 games overall.
CONSENSUS: Fifty-five percent of bettors are siding with the Giants in this NFC matchup. As for the total, 64 percent of wagers are on the over.
Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack
Westgate Super Contest (1,727 entrants-- prize pool is $2.5M)
Most popular picks 2-7 in Week 15 season record: 47-44-2
Redskins (+3) were 4th most popular pick; they played last night- W.
7) Browns +12 (335)-- People showing faith in big underdogs this week.
6) Rams +13.5 (353)-- St Louis lost its last ten visits to King County.
5) Patriots -3 (411)-- Don't get many chances at New England -3.
3) Vikings -4.5 (431)-- Going to be a frigid night in the Twin Cities. .
2) Steelers -10 (437)-- Jimmy Clausen is 0-3 against spread this year.
1) Broncos -3.5 (446)-- Denver could actually still miss the playoffs.
**********
Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Some notes on today's NFL games........
13) Bears (5-9) @ Buccaneers (6-8)-- Lovie Smith was 81-63 in nine years as Chicago's coach, winning NFC in third year, going 1-1 in playoffs next six years so they fired him. Can Smith's Tampa Bay players get him some revenge today?
12) Panthers (14-0) @ Falcons (7-7)--- Carolina (-8.5) spanked Falcons 38-0 at home two weeks ago, outgaining them 424-230 in game that was 28-0 at half. Atlanta is 1-9 vs spread in its last 10 games.
11) Cowboys (4-10) @ Bills (6-8)-- Kellen Moore gets his first NFL start in what is expected to be rainy, warm day in Orchard Park. Bills lost four of last five games; they won 33-17/30-21 in two home games since Halloween.
10) Jaguars (5-9) @ Saints (5-9)-- Saints lost six of last seven tilts thanks to a hideous defense; they've allowed 35.3 ppg in last seven games. Saints are 3-4 at home, 1-3-1 as home favorite- they allowed 166.4 rushing ypg the last five weeks.
9) 49ers (4-10) @ Lions (5-9)-- Detroit is 4-2 since its bye; only one of the wins was by more than eight points. 49ers are 2-8 vs spread in its 10 losses, 4-7 vs the spread as an underdog of 6+ points.
8) Browns (3-11) @ Chiefs (9-5)-- Red-hot Chiefs won last eight games (7-1 against spread) are 2-3 as home favorites, with wins by 10-8-7 points. Cleveland lost eight of last nine games (1-7 vs spread in last eight); they're 2-5 as road underdogs, losing last four away games, all by 17+ points.
7) Colts (6-8) @ Dolphins (5-9)-- Indy lost last three games overall by 35-35-6 points, scoring two TDs on last 36 drives- they've run for just 60 ypg in five post-bye games. Miami lost six of last eight games (1-7 vs spread); they're 2-3 as favorite- its last two wins were by total of three points.
6) Patriots (12-2) @ Jets (8-6)-- Jets are +18 in turnovers in eight wins, -13 in their six losses. Pats won eight of last nine series games; five of last seven were decided by 3 or less points. NE won three of last four visits here, with last two decided by total of four points.
5) Texans (7-7) @ Titans (6-8)--Tennessee lost five of its last six games (0-5-1 vs spread); they're 1-9 vs spread when scoring less than 33, a figure Texans allowed twice all year. Underdogs are 5-3-1 vs spread in AFC South divisional games, 1-0 at home.
4) Packers (10-4) @ Cardinals (12-2)-- Arizona won its last eight games; they're 2-4 as home favorite, with only SU loss to Rams in Week 4- Cards were -3 in turnovers in both their losses. Under is 8-3 in last 11 Green Bay games, 3-1 in four Cardinal tilts.
3) Rams (6-8) @ Seahawks (9-5)-- St Louis is 0-5 vs the spread outdoors this year- their only road cover was Week 4 win at Arizona. Rams are 0-10 in Seattle since they beat Seahawks 27-20 in '04 playoff game, when both of them got to playoffs at 8-8.
2) Steelers (9-5) @ Ravens (4-10)-- Ravens are down to #3 QB Clausen; in his three starts this season, his offense was outscored 21-20 by other teams' defense, special teams. In last three games, Pitt outscored foes 62-13 in second half; they're 5-1 as favorite this season.
1) Giants (6-8) @ Vikings (9-5)-- Minnesota is playng for playoff position; Giants are without Beckham- they got eliminated last night when Redskins won NFC East. NFC East non-divisional road dogs are 4-8 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 8-4.
Westgate Super Contest (1,727 entrants-- prize pool is $2.5M)
Most popular picks 2-7 in Week 15 season record: 47-44-2
Redskins (+3) were 4th most popular pick; they played last night- W.
7) Browns +12 (335)-- People showing faith in big underdogs this week.
6) Rams +13.5 (353)-- St Louis lost its last ten visits to King County.
5) Patriots -3 (411)-- Don't get many chances at New England -3.
3) Vikings -4.5 (431)-- Going to be a frigid night in the Twin Cities. .
2) Steelers -10 (437)-- Jimmy Clausen is 0-3 against spread this year.
1) Broncos -3.5 (446)-- Denver could actually still miss the playoffs.
**********
Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Some notes on today's NFL games........
13) Bears (5-9) @ Buccaneers (6-8)-- Lovie Smith was 81-63 in nine years as Chicago's coach, winning NFC in third year, going 1-1 in playoffs next six years so they fired him. Can Smith's Tampa Bay players get him some revenge today?
12) Panthers (14-0) @ Falcons (7-7)--- Carolina (-8.5) spanked Falcons 38-0 at home two weeks ago, outgaining them 424-230 in game that was 28-0 at half. Atlanta is 1-9 vs spread in its last 10 games.
11) Cowboys (4-10) @ Bills (6-8)-- Kellen Moore gets his first NFL start in what is expected to be rainy, warm day in Orchard Park. Bills lost four of last five games; they won 33-17/30-21 in two home games since Halloween.
10) Jaguars (5-9) @ Saints (5-9)-- Saints lost six of last seven tilts thanks to a hideous defense; they've allowed 35.3 ppg in last seven games. Saints are 3-4 at home, 1-3-1 as home favorite- they allowed 166.4 rushing ypg the last five weeks.
9) 49ers (4-10) @ Lions (5-9)-- Detroit is 4-2 since its bye; only one of the wins was by more than eight points. 49ers are 2-8 vs spread in its 10 losses, 4-7 vs the spread as an underdog of 6+ points.
8) Browns (3-11) @ Chiefs (9-5)-- Red-hot Chiefs won last eight games (7-1 against spread) are 2-3 as home favorites, with wins by 10-8-7 points. Cleveland lost eight of last nine games (1-7 vs spread in last eight); they're 2-5 as road underdogs, losing last four away games, all by 17+ points.
7) Colts (6-8) @ Dolphins (5-9)-- Indy lost last three games overall by 35-35-6 points, scoring two TDs on last 36 drives- they've run for just 60 ypg in five post-bye games. Miami lost six of last eight games (1-7 vs spread); they're 2-3 as favorite- its last two wins were by total of three points.
6) Patriots (12-2) @ Jets (8-6)-- Jets are +18 in turnovers in eight wins, -13 in their six losses. Pats won eight of last nine series games; five of last seven were decided by 3 or less points. NE won three of last four visits here, with last two decided by total of four points.
5) Texans (7-7) @ Titans (6-8)--Tennessee lost five of its last six games (0-5-1 vs spread); they're 1-9 vs spread when scoring less than 33, a figure Texans allowed twice all year. Underdogs are 5-3-1 vs spread in AFC South divisional games, 1-0 at home.
4) Packers (10-4) @ Cardinals (12-2)-- Arizona won its last eight games; they're 2-4 as home favorite, with only SU loss to Rams in Week 4- Cards were -3 in turnovers in both their losses. Under is 8-3 in last 11 Green Bay games, 3-1 in four Cardinal tilts.
3) Rams (6-8) @ Seahawks (9-5)-- St Louis is 0-5 vs the spread outdoors this year- their only road cover was Week 4 win at Arizona. Rams are 0-10 in Seattle since they beat Seahawks 27-20 in '04 playoff game, when both of them got to playoffs at 8-8.
2) Steelers (9-5) @ Ravens (4-10)-- Ravens are down to #3 QB Clausen; in his three starts this season, his offense was outscored 21-20 by other teams' defense, special teams. In last three games, Pitt outscored foes 62-13 in second half; they're 5-1 as favorite this season.
1) Giants (6-8) @ Vikings (9-5)-- Minnesota is playng for playoff position; Giants are without Beckham- they got eliminated last night when Redskins won NFC East. NFC East non-divisional road dogs are 4-8 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 8-4.
NFL ATS
NFL > (115) SAN FRANCISCO@ (116) DETROIT | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST SAN FRANCISCO against the spread in All games in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
The record is 0 Wins and 10 Losses for the last two seasons (-11 units)
NFL > (123) HOUSTON@ (124) TENNESSEE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games against conference opponents
The record is 3 Wins and 17 Losses for the last two seasons (-15.7 units)
NFL > (123) HOUSTON@ (124) TENNESSEE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games in December games
The record is 0 Wins and 9 Losses for the last three seasons (-9.9 units)
NFL > (127) ST LOUIS@ (128) SEATTLE | 2015-12-27 16:25:00 - 2015-12-27 16:25:00
Play ON SEATTLE against the spread in All games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
The record is 9 Wins and 0 Losses for the last three seasons (+9 units)
NFL > (119) INDIANAPOLIS@ (120) MIAMI | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST MIAMI against the spread in All games in December games
The record is 0 Wins and 8 Losses for the last two seasons (-8.8 units)
NFL > (127) ST LOUIS@ (128) SEATTLE | 2015-12-27 16:25:00 - 2015-12-27 16:25:00
Play ON SEATTLE against the spread in All games in December games
The record is 11 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.9 units)
NFL > (131) CINCINNATI@ (132) DENVER | 2015-12-28 20:30:00 - 2015-12-28 20:30:00
Play ON CINCINNATI against the spread in All games in road games
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses for the this season (+7 units)
NFL > (105) NY GIANTS@ (106) MINNESOTA | 2015-12-27 20:30:00 - 2015-12-27 20:30:00
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 27 Wins and 9 Losses for the last three seasons (+17.1 units)
NFL > (107) CHICAGO@ (108) TAMPA BAY | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST CHICAGO against the spread in Road games in December games
The record is 11 Wins and 33 Losses for the since 1992 (-25.3 units)
NFL > (113) JACKSONVILLE@ (114) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-27 16:05:00 - 2015-12-27 16:05:00
Play AGAINST JACKSONVILLE against the spread in All games in non-conference games
The record is 1 Wins and 10 Losses for the last three seasons (-10 units)
NFL > (105) NY GIANTS@ (106) MINNESOTA | 2015-12-27 20:30:00 - 2015-12-27 20:30:00
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games off a division game
The record is 12 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)
--------------------
NFL MONEYLINE
NFL > (123) HOUSTON@ (124) TENNESSEE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE using money line in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 7 Wins and 29 Losses for the last three seasons (-26.9 units)
NFL > (113) JACKSONVILLE@ (114) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-27 16:05:00 - 2015-12-27 16:05:00
Play AGAINST NEW ORLEANS using money line in Home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
The record is 17 Wins and 20 Losses for the since 1992 (-38.5 units)
NFL > (113) JACKSONVILLE@ (114) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-27 16:05:00 - 2015-12-27 16:05:00
Play AGAINST NEW ORLEANS using money line in Home games in December games
The record is 20 Wins and 33 Losses for the since 1992 (-43.95 units)
NFL > (121) NEW ENGLAND@ (122) NY JETS | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line in All games in games played on turf
The record is 36 Wins and 4 Losses for the last three seasons (+28.2 units)
NFL > (115) SAN FRANCISCO@ (116) DETROIT | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST SAN FRANCISCO using money line in All games in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
The record is 1 Wins and 9 Losses for the last two seasons (-11.45 units)
NFL > (117) CLEVELAND@ (118) KANSAS CITY | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST CLEVELAND using money line in All games in December games
The record is 1 Wins and 11 Losses for the last three seasons (-12.35 units)
NFL > (105) NY GIANTS@ (106) MINNESOTA | 2015-12-27 20:30:00 - 2015-12-27 20:30:00
Play ON NY GIANTS using money line in Road games against NFC North division opponents
The record is 16 Wins and 8 Losses for the since 1992 (+21.75 units)
NFL > (123) HOUSTON@ (124) TENNESSEE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE using money line in Home games in games played on a grass field
The record is 5 Wins and 18 Losses for the last three seasons (-19.2 units)
NFL > (107) CHICAGO@ (108) TAMPA BAY | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TAMPA BAY using money line in Home games against conference opponents
The record is 3 Wins and 14 Losses for the last three seasons (-14.45 units)
NFL > (117) CLEVELAND@ (118) KANSAS CITY | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST CLEVELAND using money line in All games in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
The record is 3 Wins and 14 Losses for the last three seasons (-14.4 units)
NFL > (125) GREEN BAY@ (126) ARIZONA | 2015-12-27 16:25:00 - 2015-12-27 16:25:00
Play ON ARIZONA using money line in All games in games played on turf
The record is 25 Wins and 8 Losses for the last three seasons (+18.3 units)
NFL > (129) PITTSBURGH@ (130) BALTIMORE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST BALTIMORE using money line in All games in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
The record is 1 Wins and 7 Losses for the this season (-9.3 units)
NFL > (121) NEW ENGLAND@ (122) NY JETS | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line in All games against conference opponents
The record is 20 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+14.7 units)
------------------------
NFL FIRST HALF
NFL > (129) PITTSBURGH@ (130) BALTIMORE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST BALTIMORE ?>in the first halfin All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 0 Wins and 9 Losses for the this season (-9.9 units)
NFL > (127) ST LOUIS@ (128) SEATTLE | 2015-12-27 16:25:00 - 2015-12-27 16:25:00
Play ON ST LOUIS ?>in the first halfin All games as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 16 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+12.7 units)
NFL > (121) NEW ENGLAND@ (122) NY JETS | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST NY JETS ?>in the first halfin All games in games where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5
The record is 1 Wins and 10 Losses for the last two seasons (-10 units)
NFL > (107) CHICAGO@ (108) TAMPA BAY | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TAMPA BAY ?>in the first halfin Home games against conference opponents
The record is 1 Wins and 10 Losses for the last two seasons (-10 units)
NFL > (113) JACKSONVILLE@ (114) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-27 16:05:00 - 2015-12-27 16:05:00
Play AGAINST JACKSONVILLE ?>in the first halfin All games when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 1 Wins and 10 Losses for the last two seasons (-10 units)
NFL > (109) CAROLINA@ (110) ATLANTA | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play ON CAROLINA ?>in the first halfin All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 9 Wins and 1 Losses for the this season (+7.9 units)
NFL > (129) PITTSBURGH@ (130) BALTIMORE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST BALTIMORE ?>in the first halfin All games in December games
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-7.7 units)
NFL > (113) JACKSONVILLE@ (114) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-27 16:05:00 - 2015-12-27 16:05:00
Play AGAINST JACKSONVILLE ?>in the first halfin All games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-7.7 units)
NFL > (109) CAROLINA@ (110) ATLANTA | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play ON CAROLINA ?>in the first halfin All games after 2 or more consecutive wins
The record is 10 Wins and 2 Losses for the this season (+7.8 units)
-------------------------
NFL TOTALS
NFL > (109) CAROLINA@ (110) ATLANTA | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the totalin All games in all lined games
The record is 2 Overs and 12 Unders for the this season (+9.8 units)
NFL > (109) CAROLINA@ (110) ATLANTA | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the total in all games
The record is 2 Overs and 12 Unders for the this season (+9.8 units)
NFL > (117) CLEVELAND@ (118) KANSAS CITY | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play UNDER CLEVELAND on the totalin All games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders for the last two seasons (+8 units)
NFL > (117) CLEVELAND@ (118) KANSAS CITY | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play UNDER CLEVELAND on the totalin All games in December games
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)
NFL > (109) CAROLINA@ (110) ATLANTA | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play OVER CAROLINA on the totalin Road games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 9 Overs and 1 Unders for the last two seasons (+7.9 units)
NFL > (115) SAN FRANCISCO@ (116) DETROIT | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST SAN FRANCISCO against the spread in All games in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
The record is 0 Wins and 10 Losses for the last two seasons (-11 units)
NFL > (123) HOUSTON@ (124) TENNESSEE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games against conference opponents
The record is 3 Wins and 17 Losses for the last two seasons (-15.7 units)
NFL > (123) HOUSTON@ (124) TENNESSEE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games in December games
The record is 0 Wins and 9 Losses for the last three seasons (-9.9 units)
NFL > (127) ST LOUIS@ (128) SEATTLE | 2015-12-27 16:25:00 - 2015-12-27 16:25:00
Play ON SEATTLE against the spread in All games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
The record is 9 Wins and 0 Losses for the last three seasons (+9 units)
NFL > (119) INDIANAPOLIS@ (120) MIAMI | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST MIAMI against the spread in All games in December games
The record is 0 Wins and 8 Losses for the last two seasons (-8.8 units)
NFL > (127) ST LOUIS@ (128) SEATTLE | 2015-12-27 16:25:00 - 2015-12-27 16:25:00
Play ON SEATTLE against the spread in All games in December games
The record is 11 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.9 units)
NFL > (131) CINCINNATI@ (132) DENVER | 2015-12-28 20:30:00 - 2015-12-28 20:30:00
Play ON CINCINNATI against the spread in All games in road games
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses for the this season (+7 units)
NFL > (105) NY GIANTS@ (106) MINNESOTA | 2015-12-27 20:30:00 - 2015-12-27 20:30:00
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 27 Wins and 9 Losses for the last three seasons (+17.1 units)
NFL > (107) CHICAGO@ (108) TAMPA BAY | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST CHICAGO against the spread in Road games in December games
The record is 11 Wins and 33 Losses for the since 1992 (-25.3 units)
NFL > (113) JACKSONVILLE@ (114) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-27 16:05:00 - 2015-12-27 16:05:00
Play AGAINST JACKSONVILLE against the spread in All games in non-conference games
The record is 1 Wins and 10 Losses for the last three seasons (-10 units)
NFL > (105) NY GIANTS@ (106) MINNESOTA | 2015-12-27 20:30:00 - 2015-12-27 20:30:00
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games off a division game
The record is 12 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)
--------------------
NFL MONEYLINE
NFL > (123) HOUSTON@ (124) TENNESSEE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE using money line in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 7 Wins and 29 Losses for the last three seasons (-26.9 units)
NFL > (113) JACKSONVILLE@ (114) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-27 16:05:00 - 2015-12-27 16:05:00
Play AGAINST NEW ORLEANS using money line in Home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
The record is 17 Wins and 20 Losses for the since 1992 (-38.5 units)
NFL > (113) JACKSONVILLE@ (114) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-27 16:05:00 - 2015-12-27 16:05:00
Play AGAINST NEW ORLEANS using money line in Home games in December games
The record is 20 Wins and 33 Losses for the since 1992 (-43.95 units)
NFL > (121) NEW ENGLAND@ (122) NY JETS | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line in All games in games played on turf
The record is 36 Wins and 4 Losses for the last three seasons (+28.2 units)
NFL > (115) SAN FRANCISCO@ (116) DETROIT | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST SAN FRANCISCO using money line in All games in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
The record is 1 Wins and 9 Losses for the last two seasons (-11.45 units)
NFL > (117) CLEVELAND@ (118) KANSAS CITY | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST CLEVELAND using money line in All games in December games
The record is 1 Wins and 11 Losses for the last three seasons (-12.35 units)
NFL > (105) NY GIANTS@ (106) MINNESOTA | 2015-12-27 20:30:00 - 2015-12-27 20:30:00
Play ON NY GIANTS using money line in Road games against NFC North division opponents
The record is 16 Wins and 8 Losses for the since 1992 (+21.75 units)
NFL > (123) HOUSTON@ (124) TENNESSEE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE using money line in Home games in games played on a grass field
The record is 5 Wins and 18 Losses for the last three seasons (-19.2 units)
NFL > (107) CHICAGO@ (108) TAMPA BAY | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TAMPA BAY using money line in Home games against conference opponents
The record is 3 Wins and 14 Losses for the last three seasons (-14.45 units)
NFL > (117) CLEVELAND@ (118) KANSAS CITY | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST CLEVELAND using money line in All games in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
The record is 3 Wins and 14 Losses for the last three seasons (-14.4 units)
NFL > (125) GREEN BAY@ (126) ARIZONA | 2015-12-27 16:25:00 - 2015-12-27 16:25:00
Play ON ARIZONA using money line in All games in games played on turf
The record is 25 Wins and 8 Losses for the last three seasons (+18.3 units)
NFL > (129) PITTSBURGH@ (130) BALTIMORE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST BALTIMORE using money line in All games in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
The record is 1 Wins and 7 Losses for the this season (-9.3 units)
NFL > (121) NEW ENGLAND@ (122) NY JETS | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line in All games against conference opponents
The record is 20 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+14.7 units)
------------------------
NFL FIRST HALF
NFL > (129) PITTSBURGH@ (130) BALTIMORE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST BALTIMORE ?>in the first halfin All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 0 Wins and 9 Losses for the this season (-9.9 units)
NFL > (127) ST LOUIS@ (128) SEATTLE | 2015-12-27 16:25:00 - 2015-12-27 16:25:00
Play ON ST LOUIS ?>in the first halfin All games as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 16 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+12.7 units)
NFL > (121) NEW ENGLAND@ (122) NY JETS | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST NY JETS ?>in the first halfin All games in games where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5
The record is 1 Wins and 10 Losses for the last two seasons (-10 units)
NFL > (107) CHICAGO@ (108) TAMPA BAY | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TAMPA BAY ?>in the first halfin Home games against conference opponents
The record is 1 Wins and 10 Losses for the last two seasons (-10 units)
NFL > (113) JACKSONVILLE@ (114) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-27 16:05:00 - 2015-12-27 16:05:00
Play AGAINST JACKSONVILLE ?>in the first halfin All games when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 1 Wins and 10 Losses for the last two seasons (-10 units)
NFL > (109) CAROLINA@ (110) ATLANTA | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play ON CAROLINA ?>in the first halfin All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 9 Wins and 1 Losses for the this season (+7.9 units)
NFL > (129) PITTSBURGH@ (130) BALTIMORE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST BALTIMORE ?>in the first halfin All games in December games
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-7.7 units)
NFL > (113) JACKSONVILLE@ (114) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-27 16:05:00 - 2015-12-27 16:05:00
Play AGAINST JACKSONVILLE ?>in the first halfin All games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-7.7 units)
NFL > (109) CAROLINA@ (110) ATLANTA | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play ON CAROLINA ?>in the first halfin All games after 2 or more consecutive wins
The record is 10 Wins and 2 Losses for the this season (+7.8 units)
-------------------------
NFL TOTALS
NFL > (109) CAROLINA@ (110) ATLANTA | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the totalin All games in all lined games
The record is 2 Overs and 12 Unders for the this season (+9.8 units)
NFL > (109) CAROLINA@ (110) ATLANTA | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the total in all games
The record is 2 Overs and 12 Unders for the this season (+9.8 units)
NFL > (117) CLEVELAND@ (118) KANSAS CITY | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play UNDER CLEVELAND on the totalin All games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders for the last two seasons (+8 units)
NFL > (117) CLEVELAND@ (118) KANSAS CITY | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play UNDER CLEVELAND on the totalin All games in December games
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)
NFL > (109) CAROLINA@ (110) ATLANTA | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play OVER CAROLINA on the totalin Road games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 9 Overs and 1 Unders for the last two seasons (+7.9 units)
NFL TOP POWERLINES
NFL > (117) CLEVELAND @ (118) KANSAS CITY | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Line: KANSAS CITY-11 BTB PowerLine: KANSAS CITY-21
Edge On: KANSAS CITY (10)
NFL > (109) CAROLINA @ (110) ATLANTA | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Line: CAROLINA BTB PowerLine: CAROLINA12
Edge On: CAROLINA (5.5)
NFL > (121) NEW ENGLAND @ (122) NY JETS | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Line: NEW ENGLAND BTB PowerLine: NEW ENGLAND5
Edge On: NEW ENGLAND (3)
NFL > (111) DALLAS @ (112) BUFFALO | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Line: BUFFALO-6 BTB PowerLine: BUFFALO-7
Edge On: BUFFALO (1)
NFL > (129) PITTSBURGH @ (130) BALTIMORE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Line: PITTSBURGH BTB PowerLine: PITTSBURGH11
Edge On: PITTSBURGH (0.5)
NFL > (115) SAN FRANCISCO @ (116) DETROIT | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Line: SAN FRANCISCO BTB PowerLine: SAN FRANCISCO-8
Edge On: SAN FRANCISCO (1)
NFL > (119) INDIANAPOLIS @ (120) MIAMI | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Line: MIAMI-2 BTB PowerLine: MIAMI-4
Edge On: MIAMI (2)
NFL > (123) HOUSTON @ (124) TENNESSEE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Line: HOUSTON BTB PowerLine: HOUSTON5
Edge On: HOUSTON (1.5)
NFL > (113) JACKSONVILLE @ (114) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-27 16:05:00 - 2015-12-27 16:05:00
Line: JACKSONVILLE BTB PowerLine: JACKSONVILLE-1
Edge On: JACKSONVILLE (1.5)
NFL > (127) ST LOUIS @ (128) SEATTLE | 2015-12-27 16:25:00 - 2015-12-27 16:25:00
Line: SEATTLE-12 BTB PowerLine: SEATTLE-20
Edge On: SEATTLE (8)
NFL > (125) GREEN BAY @ (126) ARIZONA | 2015-12-27 16:25:00 - 2015-12-27 16:25:00
Line: ARIZONA-5.5 BTB PowerLine: ARIZONA-10
Edge On: ARIZONA (4.5)
NFL > (105) NY GIANTS @ (106) MINNESOTA | 2015-12-27 20:30:00 - 2015-12-27 20:30:00
Line: NY GIANTS BTB PowerLine: NY GIANTS-4
Edge On: NY GIANTS (2.5)
NFL > (131) CINCINNATI @ (132) DENVER | 2015-12-28 20:30:00 - 2015-12-28 20:30:00
Line: CINCINNATI BTB PowerLine: CINCINNATI2
Edge On: CINCINNATI (5)
NFL > (117) CLEVELAND @ (118) KANSAS CITY | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Line: KANSAS CITY-11 BTB PowerLine: KANSAS CITY-21
Edge On: KANSAS CITY (10)
NFL > (109) CAROLINA @ (110) ATLANTA | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Line: CAROLINA BTB PowerLine: CAROLINA12
Edge On: CAROLINA (5.5)
NFL > (121) NEW ENGLAND @ (122) NY JETS | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Line: NEW ENGLAND BTB PowerLine: NEW ENGLAND5
Edge On: NEW ENGLAND (3)
NFL > (111) DALLAS @ (112) BUFFALO | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Line: BUFFALO-6 BTB PowerLine: BUFFALO-7
Edge On: BUFFALO (1)
NFL > (129) PITTSBURGH @ (130) BALTIMORE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Line: PITTSBURGH BTB PowerLine: PITTSBURGH11
Edge On: PITTSBURGH (0.5)
NFL > (115) SAN FRANCISCO @ (116) DETROIT | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Line: SAN FRANCISCO BTB PowerLine: SAN FRANCISCO-8
Edge On: SAN FRANCISCO (1)
NFL > (119) INDIANAPOLIS @ (120) MIAMI | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Line: MIAMI-2 BTB PowerLine: MIAMI-4
Edge On: MIAMI (2)
NFL > (123) HOUSTON @ (124) TENNESSEE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Line: HOUSTON BTB PowerLine: HOUSTON5
Edge On: HOUSTON (1.5)
NFL > (113) JACKSONVILLE @ (114) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-27 16:05:00 - 2015-12-27 16:05:00
Line: JACKSONVILLE BTB PowerLine: JACKSONVILLE-1
Edge On: JACKSONVILLE (1.5)
NFL > (127) ST LOUIS @ (128) SEATTLE | 2015-12-27 16:25:00 - 2015-12-27 16:25:00
Line: SEATTLE-12 BTB PowerLine: SEATTLE-20
Edge On: SEATTLE (8)
NFL > (125) GREEN BAY @ (126) ARIZONA | 2015-12-27 16:25:00 - 2015-12-27 16:25:00
Line: ARIZONA-5.5 BTB PowerLine: ARIZONA-10
Edge On: ARIZONA (4.5)
NFL > (105) NY GIANTS @ (106) MINNESOTA | 2015-12-27 20:30:00 - 2015-12-27 20:30:00
Line: NY GIANTS BTB PowerLine: NY GIANTS-4
Edge On: NY GIANTS (2.5)
NFL > (131) CINCINNATI @ (132) DENVER | 2015-12-28 20:30:00 - 2015-12-28 20:30:00
Line: CINCINNATI BTB PowerLine: CINCINNATI2
Edge On: CINCINNATI (5)
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 27
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS
CAR at ATL 01:00 PM
ATL +7.0 DOUBLE PLAY
O 46.5 DOUBLE PLAY
CLE at KC 01:00 PM
CLE +11.5
U 42.0
PIT at BAL 01:00 PM
PIT -10.5
O 47.5
NE at NYJ 01:00 PM
NE -2.5
U 45.0
DAL at BUF 01:00 PM
BUF -6.5 TRIPLE PLAY
U 42.0 TRIPLE PLAY
CHI at TB 01:00 PM
TB -3.0
O 44.0
HOU at TEN 01:00 PM
HOU -3.5 BLOW OUT
U 39.0
IND at MIA 01:00 PM
MIA -2.0
O 43.5
SF at DET 01:00 PM
SF +8.5 *****
O 43.0 *****
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS
CAR at ATL 01:00 PM
ATL +7.0 DOUBLE PLAY
O 46.5 DOUBLE PLAY
CLE at KC 01:00 PM
CLE +11.5
U 42.0
PIT at BAL 01:00 PM
PIT -10.5
O 47.5
NE at NYJ 01:00 PM
NE -2.5
U 45.0
DAL at BUF 01:00 PM
BUF -6.5 TRIPLE PLAY
U 42.0 TRIPLE PLAY
CHI at TB 01:00 PM
TB -3.0
O 44.0
HOU at TEN 01:00 PM
HOU -3.5 BLOW OUT
U 39.0
IND at MIA 01:00 PM
MIA -2.0
O 43.5
SF at DET 01:00 PM
SF +8.5 *****
O 43.0 *****
Total Talk - Week 16
December 26, 2015
After watching the ‘under’ produced an eye opening 12-4 (75%) mark in Week 14, total bettors saw the ‘over’ rebound with a solid 10-6 (63%) record last weekend. After 15 weeks, the ‘over/under’ results stand at 110-110-4 and that shows how you back and forth the totals market has been this season.
Closing Strong
The old adage “Offense wins games, Defense wins championships” could be tossed out the window this season, especially when you look at the hottest teams in the league. Along with the unbeaten Carolina Panthers, there are three other clubs that have been perfect the last five weeks and two of them (Cardinals, Chiefs) have ripped off eight straight wins.
The one thing they all have in common right now is potent offensive units and those efforts have resulted in a combined ‘over’ record of 12-8. Also, savvy bettors that enjoy playing team totals have seen the ‘over’ produce an eye-opening 17-3 mark for this quartet.
Will those trends continue this weekend?
As Micah Roberts noted in his Vegas Money Moves piece, the public is backing them again.
-- Kansas City is averaging 28.2 PPG in its last five games and 29.3 PPG in its last eight.
-- Carolina leads the league in offense at 32.1 PPG and it hasn’t slowed down at all, averaging 38.8 PPG in its last five victories.
-- Arizona’s attack tempered off a bit between Week 13 and 15 but it silenced any doubts with a 40-point effort last Sunday.
-- Seattle’s offense has been very efficient during its current five-game winning streak, averaging 34.2 PPG. The ‘under’ has cashed the last two weeks but those results were helped with great defensive efforts (9.5 PPG).
-- Pittsburgh is just behind this group with a 4-1 record the last five weeks and 5-1 in its last six. The offense has been lights out, averaging 35 PPG during this stretch and that’s helped the ‘over’ go 5-1.
AFC vs. NFC
The ‘under’ went 4-2 in the six non-conference games last weekend and is now 40-20-2 (67%) on the season.
We have two more games on tap this weekend and it’s hard to justify ‘over’ plays based on the quarterback situations for a couple of the teams in action:
Jacksonville at New Orleans
Dallas at Buffalo
Divisional Battles
Including the first two primetime games this week, we only have seven divisional games in Week 16 and four of the final five will be played in the early session on Sunday.
Carolina at Atlanta: Two weeks ago, the Panthers blasted the Falcons 38-0 and ‘under’ (45) bettors were helped with no points scored in the fourth quarter. Including this result, the ‘under’ has cashed in five straight in this series and Atlanta enters this game on a 10-0 ‘under’ streak. Despite those stats, this week’s total is shaded a tad higher and while Carolina (32.1 PPG) has a great shot to do its job, you should be hesitant backing Atlanta’s inconsistent offense (21.6 PPG).
New England at N.Y. Jets: The Patriots held off the Jets 30-23 in Week 7 and the ‘over’ (47) connected for the eighth time in the last 10 meetings between the pair. The Jets defense has buckled down the last two weeks albeit against rookie and backup signal callers. New England has scored 27-plus in 12 of its 14 games but the lower total (45 ½) on this game suggests a tightly contested affair here.
Houston at Tennessee: Due to the QB situation for both teams, you’re better off passing both the side and total on this game. In the first meeting, the Texans defeated the Titans 20-6 on Nov. 1 at home and the ‘under’ (43) hit easily.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore: The ‘over’ is on a 5-4-1 in this series but the numbers in those games were all lower than this week’s total of 47 ½. The Steelers offense (see above) has scored 30-plus in six straight games while the Ravens have a combined 33 points in their last three games. On paper, this game is a mismatch but we all know that when it looks too easy, it usually isn’t!
St. Louis at Seattle: As noted above, the Seahawks are rolling right now on both sides of the ball. The Rams have won two straight while scoring 21 and 31 points and for those still following, this game does fit the “Thursday Night System” angle which hasn’t been profitable this season. St. Louis nipped Seattle 34-31 in Week 1 and the ‘over’ cashed easily but the ‘under’ has cashed in three straight meetings at CenturyLink Field.
Under the Lights
The ‘over’ went 3-1 in the four primetime games last week and all of those results were never in doubt. This past Thursday’s game between the Raiders and Chargers slid ‘under’ the number but it did have chances. Including that result, the ‘under’ stands at 28-20 (58%) in the night games and it looks like that number could improve with this week’s slate.
N.Y. Giants at Minnesota: When you look at the strong ‘under’ (10-3-1) numbers for Minnesota, it makes you believe that this week’s total (45) seems too high. Especially, with the Giants missing its best offensive weapon (Beckham) on the outside. However, even though Vikings coach Mike Zimmer has stressed defense and the running game, the team closed last season with a 3-2 ‘over’ mark and its 2-1 to the ‘over’ in its last three games this season. Also, everybody has had success against the atrocious defense of the Giants, which is ranked last in yards allowed (423) and 23rd in points (25.6).
Cincinnati at Denver: What once looked like a must-see matchup now appears to be a preseason matchup when you look at the players under center. This is the lowest total (39 ½) on the board and deservingly so with the defensive units of the Bengals (17.4 PPG) and Broncos (18.5 PPG). Denver is coming off a 34-27 shootout loss at Pittsburgh and bettors should be aware that the Broncos haven’t seen back-to-back ‘over’ tickets this season. Plus, the ‘under’ is 4-1-1 at Sports Authority Field this season and it could easily be a perfect 6-0 if it wasn’t for a couple late surges.
Fearless Predictions
We’ve all learned that you can’t handicap turnovers or penalties and that’s what doomed one of our losses as the Bengals scored 21 points in a three-minute span against the 49ers. That’s gambling and the deficit was two dollars ($200) on the week and four times that amount ($800) on the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and I wish you all a great Christmas and New Year!
Best Over: San Francisco-Detroit 43
Best Under: Chicago-Tampa Bay 46
Best Team Total: Over Falcons 21 ½
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 38 Carolina-Atlanta
Over 34 San Francisco-Detroit
Under 48 ½ Cincinnati-Denver
December 26, 2015
After watching the ‘under’ produced an eye opening 12-4 (75%) mark in Week 14, total bettors saw the ‘over’ rebound with a solid 10-6 (63%) record last weekend. After 15 weeks, the ‘over/under’ results stand at 110-110-4 and that shows how you back and forth the totals market has been this season.
Closing Strong
The old adage “Offense wins games, Defense wins championships” could be tossed out the window this season, especially when you look at the hottest teams in the league. Along with the unbeaten Carolina Panthers, there are three other clubs that have been perfect the last five weeks and two of them (Cardinals, Chiefs) have ripped off eight straight wins.
The one thing they all have in common right now is potent offensive units and those efforts have resulted in a combined ‘over’ record of 12-8. Also, savvy bettors that enjoy playing team totals have seen the ‘over’ produce an eye-opening 17-3 mark for this quartet.
Will those trends continue this weekend?
As Micah Roberts noted in his Vegas Money Moves piece, the public is backing them again.
-- Kansas City is averaging 28.2 PPG in its last five games and 29.3 PPG in its last eight.
-- Carolina leads the league in offense at 32.1 PPG and it hasn’t slowed down at all, averaging 38.8 PPG in its last five victories.
-- Arizona’s attack tempered off a bit between Week 13 and 15 but it silenced any doubts with a 40-point effort last Sunday.
-- Seattle’s offense has been very efficient during its current five-game winning streak, averaging 34.2 PPG. The ‘under’ has cashed the last two weeks but those results were helped with great defensive efforts (9.5 PPG).
-- Pittsburgh is just behind this group with a 4-1 record the last five weeks and 5-1 in its last six. The offense has been lights out, averaging 35 PPG during this stretch and that’s helped the ‘over’ go 5-1.
AFC vs. NFC
The ‘under’ went 4-2 in the six non-conference games last weekend and is now 40-20-2 (67%) on the season.
We have two more games on tap this weekend and it’s hard to justify ‘over’ plays based on the quarterback situations for a couple of the teams in action:
Jacksonville at New Orleans
Dallas at Buffalo
Divisional Battles
Including the first two primetime games this week, we only have seven divisional games in Week 16 and four of the final five will be played in the early session on Sunday.
Carolina at Atlanta: Two weeks ago, the Panthers blasted the Falcons 38-0 and ‘under’ (45) bettors were helped with no points scored in the fourth quarter. Including this result, the ‘under’ has cashed in five straight in this series and Atlanta enters this game on a 10-0 ‘under’ streak. Despite those stats, this week’s total is shaded a tad higher and while Carolina (32.1 PPG) has a great shot to do its job, you should be hesitant backing Atlanta’s inconsistent offense (21.6 PPG).
New England at N.Y. Jets: The Patriots held off the Jets 30-23 in Week 7 and the ‘over’ (47) connected for the eighth time in the last 10 meetings between the pair. The Jets defense has buckled down the last two weeks albeit against rookie and backup signal callers. New England has scored 27-plus in 12 of its 14 games but the lower total (45 ½) on this game suggests a tightly contested affair here.
Houston at Tennessee: Due to the QB situation for both teams, you’re better off passing both the side and total on this game. In the first meeting, the Texans defeated the Titans 20-6 on Nov. 1 at home and the ‘under’ (43) hit easily.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore: The ‘over’ is on a 5-4-1 in this series but the numbers in those games were all lower than this week’s total of 47 ½. The Steelers offense (see above) has scored 30-plus in six straight games while the Ravens have a combined 33 points in their last three games. On paper, this game is a mismatch but we all know that when it looks too easy, it usually isn’t!
St. Louis at Seattle: As noted above, the Seahawks are rolling right now on both sides of the ball. The Rams have won two straight while scoring 21 and 31 points and for those still following, this game does fit the “Thursday Night System” angle which hasn’t been profitable this season. St. Louis nipped Seattle 34-31 in Week 1 and the ‘over’ cashed easily but the ‘under’ has cashed in three straight meetings at CenturyLink Field.
Under the Lights
The ‘over’ went 3-1 in the four primetime games last week and all of those results were never in doubt. This past Thursday’s game between the Raiders and Chargers slid ‘under’ the number but it did have chances. Including that result, the ‘under’ stands at 28-20 (58%) in the night games and it looks like that number could improve with this week’s slate.
N.Y. Giants at Minnesota: When you look at the strong ‘under’ (10-3-1) numbers for Minnesota, it makes you believe that this week’s total (45) seems too high. Especially, with the Giants missing its best offensive weapon (Beckham) on the outside. However, even though Vikings coach Mike Zimmer has stressed defense and the running game, the team closed last season with a 3-2 ‘over’ mark and its 2-1 to the ‘over’ in its last three games this season. Also, everybody has had success against the atrocious defense of the Giants, which is ranked last in yards allowed (423) and 23rd in points (25.6).
Cincinnati at Denver: What once looked like a must-see matchup now appears to be a preseason matchup when you look at the players under center. This is the lowest total (39 ½) on the board and deservingly so with the defensive units of the Bengals (17.4 PPG) and Broncos (18.5 PPG). Denver is coming off a 34-27 shootout loss at Pittsburgh and bettors should be aware that the Broncos haven’t seen back-to-back ‘over’ tickets this season. Plus, the ‘under’ is 4-1-1 at Sports Authority Field this season and it could easily be a perfect 6-0 if it wasn’t for a couple late surges.
Fearless Predictions
We’ve all learned that you can’t handicap turnovers or penalties and that’s what doomed one of our losses as the Bengals scored 21 points in a three-minute span against the 49ers. That’s gambling and the deficit was two dollars ($200) on the week and four times that amount ($800) on the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and I wish you all a great Christmas and New Year!
Best Over: San Francisco-Detroit 43
Best Under: Chicago-Tampa Bay 46
Best Team Total: Over Falcons 21 ½
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 38 Carolina-Atlanta
Over 34 San Francisco-Detroit
Under 48 ½ Cincinnati-Denver
Week 16 Tip Sheet
December 26, 2015
Panthers (-7, 47 ½) at Falcons – 1:00 PM EST
Only two victories stand between the Panthers (14-0 SU, 10-4 ATS) and a perfect regular season. Ron Rivera’s team squandered a 35-7 lead over the Giants last Sunday, but Graham Gano kicked the game-winning field goal to lift Carolina to its 14th straight victory in a 38-35 triumph. Carolina failed to cash as 4 ½-point road favorites as the Panthers are 0-2 ATS in the past two games away from Charlotte. The Panthers have won five of the past six matchups with the Falcons, including a 38-0 shutout of Atlanta at Bank of America Stadium two weeks ago.
It’s very difficult to go nine consecutive games without a cover, but the Falcons (7-7 SU, 5-9 ATS) accomplished that dubious feat from mid-October through mid-December. However, Atlanta finally picked up an ATS win in last Sunday’s 23-17 triumph at Jacksonville as two-point underdogs, while snapping a six-game losing streak. Atlanta cashed another ‘under’ to improve to 9-0-1 to the ‘under’ the last 10 contests, as Dan Quinn’s club has finished ‘under’ the total in five of six games at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons have covered six of the last seven in the role of a home underdog since November 2013, including a 26-24 victory over the Eagles as three-point ‘dogs in the season opener.
Patriots (-3, 46) at Jets – 1:00 PM EST
Following a two-game losing streak, New England (12-2 SU, 7-5-2 ATS) has bounced back with consecutive double-digit victories over Houston and Tennessee. Tom Brady has thrown for less than 300 yards in four of the last five games, but the four-time Super Bowl champion quarterback has tossed 11 touchdowns in this span. The Patriots can clinch home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs with a win, as Bill Belichick’s club has won in three of the last four visits to Met Life Stadium.
The Jets (9-5 SU, 7-5-2 ATS) are still alive for a playoff berth in the AFC, but the Chiefs and Steelers have the inside track on the two Wild Card spots. New York is riding a four-game winning streak, although all four victories in this stretch have come against teams currently below the .500 mark, including a 19-16 triumph at Dallas last Saturday. Todd Bowles’ squad looks to avenge a 30-23 defeat at Gillette Stadium in Week 7, as the Jets led 20-16 in the fourth quarter prior to a pair of Brady touchdown passes.
Texans (-3 ½, 41) at Titans – 1:00 PM EST
The sloppy AFC South race can finally crown a champion on Sunday with a combination of a Houston win and an Indianapolis loss at Miami. The Texans (7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS) picked up a huge road victory against the Colts in Week 15 to grab a one-game edge in the division, but lost quarterback T.J. Yates to a torn ACL. Now, Houston will turn to its fourth starting quarterback of the season in Week 16, as former Cowboy Brandon Weeden gets the call under center. Weeden threw the go-ahead touchdown pass to Jaelen Strong in the fourth quarter of last Sunday’s 16-10 win at Indianapolis to improve to 3-1 in the AFC South.
Tennessee (3-11 SU, 4-9-1 ATS) hopes to avoid the worst record in the NFL with two games remaining, but will be without its top pick from last season’s draft on Sunday. Rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota suffered a right knee injury in a 33-16 loss at New England last week and is out against Houston. Zach Mettenberger will start in Mariota’s place, as the Titans look for revenge from a 20-6 setback at Houston in Week 8 as 3 ½-point underdogs. The Titans have lost six of the last seven matchups with the Texans since 2012, while Tennessee owns a dreadful 1-6 SU and 2-4-1 ATS record at Nissan Stadium this season.
Packers at Cardinals (-4 ½, 50 ½) – 4:25 PM EST
Both these teams are headed to the NFC playoffs, but seeding is still undetermined. Arizona (12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS) can clinch a first-round bye with a victory on Sunday, coming off a 40-17 rout of Philadelphia last week to wrap up the NFC West title. Since losing at Pittsburgh in mid-October, Bruce Arians’ club has ripped off eight consecutive victories, but the Cardinals are just 4-4 ATS in this span. Arizona has failed to cover in each of its last four games at University of Phoenix Stadium, as three of those contests were decided by three points or less.
For the seventh consecutive season, the Packers (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS) are headed to the playoffs, as Green Bay stands one victory plus a Minnesota loss away from an NFC North championship. Following a 1-4 slump in November, Mike McCarthy’s team has rebounded with three straight wins, capped off by a 30-20 triumph at Oakland last Sunday as four-point favorites. Since back-to-back ugly showings at Denver and Carolina, the Packers have won three consecutive road games, while making its first visit to Arizona since a 51-45 overtime loss in the Wild Card round of the 2009 playoffs.
Rams at Seahawks (-12, 40 ½) – 4:25 PM EST
Some of the top teams in the NFC are playing its best football in December, which includes the two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks. Seattle (9-5 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) has won seven of its past eight games, while covering in each of its last five contests overall. Pete Carroll’s club cashed as a double-digit favorite for the second straight game, pounding Cleveland at home, 30-13 to cover as 14 ½-point chalk. Russell Wilson has been on fire during this five-game hot streak for Seattle, putting together an incredible 19-0 touchdown to interception ratio, including 10 scoring strikes to wide receiver Doug Baldwin.
It’s probably too little, too late for the Rams (6-8 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) to salvage their season with a potential move to Los Angeles next season. However, St. Louis has won each of its last two games at home against Detroit and Tampa Bay to finish with a 5-3 record at the Edward Jones Dome. The first of those five victories came in the season opener against Seattle in overtime, 34-31 to cash as 3 ½-point underdogs. The Rams haven’t much luck in the Pacific Northwest, dropping 10 straight visits to Seattle dating back to 2004, including a 2-8 ATS mark.
December 26, 2015
Panthers (-7, 47 ½) at Falcons – 1:00 PM EST
Only two victories stand between the Panthers (14-0 SU, 10-4 ATS) and a perfect regular season. Ron Rivera’s team squandered a 35-7 lead over the Giants last Sunday, but Graham Gano kicked the game-winning field goal to lift Carolina to its 14th straight victory in a 38-35 triumph. Carolina failed to cash as 4 ½-point road favorites as the Panthers are 0-2 ATS in the past two games away from Charlotte. The Panthers have won five of the past six matchups with the Falcons, including a 38-0 shutout of Atlanta at Bank of America Stadium two weeks ago.
It’s very difficult to go nine consecutive games without a cover, but the Falcons (7-7 SU, 5-9 ATS) accomplished that dubious feat from mid-October through mid-December. However, Atlanta finally picked up an ATS win in last Sunday’s 23-17 triumph at Jacksonville as two-point underdogs, while snapping a six-game losing streak. Atlanta cashed another ‘under’ to improve to 9-0-1 to the ‘under’ the last 10 contests, as Dan Quinn’s club has finished ‘under’ the total in five of six games at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons have covered six of the last seven in the role of a home underdog since November 2013, including a 26-24 victory over the Eagles as three-point ‘dogs in the season opener.
Patriots (-3, 46) at Jets – 1:00 PM EST
Following a two-game losing streak, New England (12-2 SU, 7-5-2 ATS) has bounced back with consecutive double-digit victories over Houston and Tennessee. Tom Brady has thrown for less than 300 yards in four of the last five games, but the four-time Super Bowl champion quarterback has tossed 11 touchdowns in this span. The Patriots can clinch home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs with a win, as Bill Belichick’s club has won in three of the last four visits to Met Life Stadium.
The Jets (9-5 SU, 7-5-2 ATS) are still alive for a playoff berth in the AFC, but the Chiefs and Steelers have the inside track on the two Wild Card spots. New York is riding a four-game winning streak, although all four victories in this stretch have come against teams currently below the .500 mark, including a 19-16 triumph at Dallas last Saturday. Todd Bowles’ squad looks to avenge a 30-23 defeat at Gillette Stadium in Week 7, as the Jets led 20-16 in the fourth quarter prior to a pair of Brady touchdown passes.
Texans (-3 ½, 41) at Titans – 1:00 PM EST
The sloppy AFC South race can finally crown a champion on Sunday with a combination of a Houston win and an Indianapolis loss at Miami. The Texans (7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS) picked up a huge road victory against the Colts in Week 15 to grab a one-game edge in the division, but lost quarterback T.J. Yates to a torn ACL. Now, Houston will turn to its fourth starting quarterback of the season in Week 16, as former Cowboy Brandon Weeden gets the call under center. Weeden threw the go-ahead touchdown pass to Jaelen Strong in the fourth quarter of last Sunday’s 16-10 win at Indianapolis to improve to 3-1 in the AFC South.
Tennessee (3-11 SU, 4-9-1 ATS) hopes to avoid the worst record in the NFL with two games remaining, but will be without its top pick from last season’s draft on Sunday. Rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota suffered a right knee injury in a 33-16 loss at New England last week and is out against Houston. Zach Mettenberger will start in Mariota’s place, as the Titans look for revenge from a 20-6 setback at Houston in Week 8 as 3 ½-point underdogs. The Titans have lost six of the last seven matchups with the Texans since 2012, while Tennessee owns a dreadful 1-6 SU and 2-4-1 ATS record at Nissan Stadium this season.
Packers at Cardinals (-4 ½, 50 ½) – 4:25 PM EST
Both these teams are headed to the NFC playoffs, but seeding is still undetermined. Arizona (12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS) can clinch a first-round bye with a victory on Sunday, coming off a 40-17 rout of Philadelphia last week to wrap up the NFC West title. Since losing at Pittsburgh in mid-October, Bruce Arians’ club has ripped off eight consecutive victories, but the Cardinals are just 4-4 ATS in this span. Arizona has failed to cover in each of its last four games at University of Phoenix Stadium, as three of those contests were decided by three points or less.
For the seventh consecutive season, the Packers (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS) are headed to the playoffs, as Green Bay stands one victory plus a Minnesota loss away from an NFC North championship. Following a 1-4 slump in November, Mike McCarthy’s team has rebounded with three straight wins, capped off by a 30-20 triumph at Oakland last Sunday as four-point favorites. Since back-to-back ugly showings at Denver and Carolina, the Packers have won three consecutive road games, while making its first visit to Arizona since a 51-45 overtime loss in the Wild Card round of the 2009 playoffs.
Rams at Seahawks (-12, 40 ½) – 4:25 PM EST
Some of the top teams in the NFC are playing its best football in December, which includes the two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks. Seattle (9-5 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) has won seven of its past eight games, while covering in each of its last five contests overall. Pete Carroll’s club cashed as a double-digit favorite for the second straight game, pounding Cleveland at home, 30-13 to cover as 14 ½-point chalk. Russell Wilson has been on fire during this five-game hot streak for Seattle, putting together an incredible 19-0 touchdown to interception ratio, including 10 scoring strikes to wide receiver Doug Baldwin.
It’s probably too little, too late for the Rams (6-8 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) to salvage their season with a potential move to Los Angeles next season. However, St. Louis has won each of its last two games at home against Detroit and Tampa Bay to finish with a 5-3 record at the Edward Jones Dome. The first of those five victories came in the season opener against Seattle in overtime, 34-31 to cash as 3 ½-point underdogs. The Rams haven’t much luck in the Pacific Northwest, dropping 10 straight visits to Seattle dating back to 2004, including a 2-8 ATS mark.
Armadillo: Monday's six-pack
Westgate Super Contest (1,727 entrants-- prize pool is $2.5M)
Most popular picks in Week 16 season record: 50-46-2
Redskins (+3) were 4th most popular pick; they played Saturday night- W.
7) Browns +12 (335)-- People showing faith in big underdogs this week- W.
6) Rams +13.5 (353)-- St Louis lost its last ten visits to King County- W.
5) Patriots -3 (411)-- Don't get many chances at New England -3- L.
3) Vikings -4.5 (431)-- Going to be a frigid night in the Twin Cities.- W.
2) Steelers -10 (437)-- Jimmy Clausen is 0-3 against spread this year- L.
1) Broncos -3.5 (446)-- Denver could actually still miss the playoffs.
**********
Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday........
13) Rams 23, Seahawks 17-- St Louis sweeps Seahawks for first time in 11 years; at 7-8, Rams are finishing strong, but when they go 3-1 vs Arizona/Seattle and miss the playoffs, its an empty feeling. St Louis was +3 in turnovers; last two weeks, teams with +2 or better turnover ratio are 14-0 SU.
12) Bears 26, Buccaneers 21-- Tampa Bay faded down stretch, losing four of last five games; in those five games, Bucs started 37 drives 80+ yards from goal line, their opponents only 20. Bad special teams, lousy on 3rd down (9 of last 29). Up 14-13 in third quarter with ball in red zone, Winston threw an awful INT, giving up an easy FG. Chicago dominated game from that point on.
11) Falcons 20, Panthers 13-- First loss of season for Carolina; not sure it is worst thing, takes some pressure off- they can rest banged-up guys next week. Atlanta was eliminated when the Giants got beat in Minnesota last night- they started season 5-0, so missing the playoffs.makes this season a crummy one.
10) Bills 16, Cowboys 6-- Buffalo hosts the Jets next week, with chance to knock Rex Ryan's old team out of playoffs. Dallas is 1-10 with backup QB starting this year, and they used three of them. Broncos (Week 5) are only team this year to win a game they didn't score an offensive TD in, when other team did- Broncos also won a game in Week 1 when neither team scored an offensive TD.
9) Saints 38, Jaguars 27-- New Orleans had 10 drives; five TDs, three FGs, not good day for Jaguars, who have now lost four of last five games. If you're the Saints, would you trade your coach for a draft pick and if so, how high a pick would you want? Lot of rumors out there that the Dolphins/Colts are interested in Sean Payton.
8) Lions 32, 49ers 17-- Detroit won five of last seven games; if they're smart, they get rid of Jim Caldwell anyway, hire a defensive-minded coach who will keep OC Cooter on his staff. 49ers are 2-9 vs spread in its 11 losses, 4-8 vs the spread as an underdog of 6+ points. They must've really not liked Jim Harbaugh to fire him.
7) Chiefs 17, Browns 13-- Chiefs won last nine games (7-2 against spread) have made playoffs despite starting season 1-5. Cleveland lost nine of last ten games (2-8 against spread) as another dismal season comes to an end. This is good time to point out that all 16 games next weekend will be divisional rivalry games.
6) Colts 18, Dolphins 12-- Miami lost seven of last nine games (1-8 vs spread); their next coach will be a big name- they had ball in red zone five times in this game, scored only 12 points. Indy is still alive for playoff spot; they host hapless Titans, Houston plays Jacksonville. Still baffled how Ryan Tannehill never gets benched.
5) Jets 26, Patriots 20 OT-- I'm pretty sure last NFL coach who chose to kick off to start OT was Marty Mornhinweg, who got fired shortly thereafter; if defense keeps Jets out of EZ on first drive, no one says a word. They didn't.
Tom Brady used to date actress Bridget Moynihan- they had a kid together- the young man's name is John Edward Thomas, as in J-E-T. Not a coincidence. Apparently Ms Moynihan holds a grudge-- hope she bet the Jets in this game.
4) Texans 34, Titans 6-- Houston won six of its last eight games, despite using five QBs this season- they could be tough out in AFC playoffs. Tennessee lost six of its last seven games (0-6-1 vs spread); they're 1-10 vs spread when scoring less than 33 points. How happy will Jerry Jones be when Brandon Weeden starts a playoff game?
3) Cardinals 38, Packers 8-- Next week's Sunday night game: Vikings-Packers, so for second week in row, a game in frigid conditions gets moved from noon to 7:30pm local time kickoff. Does no one care about fans who buy tickets? Packers' OL was useless in this game. Arizona won last nine games; they were -3 in turnovers in both their losses- they're the best team in the NFL right now.
2) Ravens 20, Steelers 17-- Steelers now need to win in Cleveland and get help from Buffalo next week to make playoffs. Ravens found a competent backup QB in Mallett, who was cut by Houston when he missed plane to Miami game, after he took a day off when Hoyer was named starter this summer.
1) Vikings 49, Giants 17-- Tank job by Giants, who were eliminated when Redskins won Saturday night. If you owned the Giants and it was your money being spent, do you bring Tom Coughlin back as coach? It was pretty much assumed in the media last summer that if he missed the playoffs this year it was sayonara.
And if you do fire a coach who won two Super Bowls, who do you bring in who will be better? Do you fire the GM, who hasn't drafted well? Interesting questions.
Westgate Super Contest (1,727 entrants-- prize pool is $2.5M)
Most popular picks in Week 16 season record: 50-46-2
Redskins (+3) were 4th most popular pick; they played Saturday night- W.
7) Browns +12 (335)-- People showing faith in big underdogs this week- W.
6) Rams +13.5 (353)-- St Louis lost its last ten visits to King County- W.
5) Patriots -3 (411)-- Don't get many chances at New England -3- L.
3) Vikings -4.5 (431)-- Going to be a frigid night in the Twin Cities.- W.
2) Steelers -10 (437)-- Jimmy Clausen is 0-3 against spread this year- L.
1) Broncos -3.5 (446)-- Denver could actually still miss the playoffs.
**********
Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday........
13) Rams 23, Seahawks 17-- St Louis sweeps Seahawks for first time in 11 years; at 7-8, Rams are finishing strong, but when they go 3-1 vs Arizona/Seattle and miss the playoffs, its an empty feeling. St Louis was +3 in turnovers; last two weeks, teams with +2 or better turnover ratio are 14-0 SU.
12) Bears 26, Buccaneers 21-- Tampa Bay faded down stretch, losing four of last five games; in those five games, Bucs started 37 drives 80+ yards from goal line, their opponents only 20. Bad special teams, lousy on 3rd down (9 of last 29). Up 14-13 in third quarter with ball in red zone, Winston threw an awful INT, giving up an easy FG. Chicago dominated game from that point on.
11) Falcons 20, Panthers 13-- First loss of season for Carolina; not sure it is worst thing, takes some pressure off- they can rest banged-up guys next week. Atlanta was eliminated when the Giants got beat in Minnesota last night- they started season 5-0, so missing the playoffs.makes this season a crummy one.
10) Bills 16, Cowboys 6-- Buffalo hosts the Jets next week, with chance to knock Rex Ryan's old team out of playoffs. Dallas is 1-10 with backup QB starting this year, and they used three of them. Broncos (Week 5) are only team this year to win a game they didn't score an offensive TD in, when other team did- Broncos also won a game in Week 1 when neither team scored an offensive TD.
9) Saints 38, Jaguars 27-- New Orleans had 10 drives; five TDs, three FGs, not good day for Jaguars, who have now lost four of last five games. If you're the Saints, would you trade your coach for a draft pick and if so, how high a pick would you want? Lot of rumors out there that the Dolphins/Colts are interested in Sean Payton.
8) Lions 32, 49ers 17-- Detroit won five of last seven games; if they're smart, they get rid of Jim Caldwell anyway, hire a defensive-minded coach who will keep OC Cooter on his staff. 49ers are 2-9 vs spread in its 11 losses, 4-8 vs the spread as an underdog of 6+ points. They must've really not liked Jim Harbaugh to fire him.
7) Chiefs 17, Browns 13-- Chiefs won last nine games (7-2 against spread) have made playoffs despite starting season 1-5. Cleveland lost nine of last ten games (2-8 against spread) as another dismal season comes to an end. This is good time to point out that all 16 games next weekend will be divisional rivalry games.
6) Colts 18, Dolphins 12-- Miami lost seven of last nine games (1-8 vs spread); their next coach will be a big name- they had ball in red zone five times in this game, scored only 12 points. Indy is still alive for playoff spot; they host hapless Titans, Houston plays Jacksonville. Still baffled how Ryan Tannehill never gets benched.
5) Jets 26, Patriots 20 OT-- I'm pretty sure last NFL coach who chose to kick off to start OT was Marty Mornhinweg, who got fired shortly thereafter; if defense keeps Jets out of EZ on first drive, no one says a word. They didn't.
Tom Brady used to date actress Bridget Moynihan- they had a kid together- the young man's name is John Edward Thomas, as in J-E-T. Not a coincidence. Apparently Ms Moynihan holds a grudge-- hope she bet the Jets in this game.
4) Texans 34, Titans 6-- Houston won six of its last eight games, despite using five QBs this season- they could be tough out in AFC playoffs. Tennessee lost six of its last seven games (0-6-1 vs spread); they're 1-10 vs spread when scoring less than 33 points. How happy will Jerry Jones be when Brandon Weeden starts a playoff game?
3) Cardinals 38, Packers 8-- Next week's Sunday night game: Vikings-Packers, so for second week in row, a game in frigid conditions gets moved from noon to 7:30pm local time kickoff. Does no one care about fans who buy tickets? Packers' OL was useless in this game. Arizona won last nine games; they were -3 in turnovers in both their losses- they're the best team in the NFL right now.
2) Ravens 20, Steelers 17-- Steelers now need to win in Cleveland and get help from Buffalo next week to make playoffs. Ravens found a competent backup QB in Mallett, who was cut by Houston when he missed plane to Miami game, after he took a day off when Hoyer was named starter this summer.
1) Vikings 49, Giants 17-- Tank job by Giants, who were eliminated when Redskins won Saturday night. If you owned the Giants and it was your money being spent, do you bring Tom Coughlin back as coach? It was pretty much assumed in the media last summer that if he missed the playoffs this year it was sayonara.
And if you do fire a coach who won two Super Bowls, who do you bring in who will be better? Do you fire the GM, who hasn't drafted well? Interesting questions.
NFL
Monday, December 28
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Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Bengals at Broncos
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If the Bengals win, they clinch a bye. If the Broncos win, they clinch a playoff spot.
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-3.5, 39)
Both starting quarterbacks have been lost to injury, but the stakes are still high in Monday night's clash between the visiting Cincinnati Bengals and the Denver Broncos. Despite losing starter Andy Dalton to a fractured right thumb two weeks ago, the Bengals can wrap up the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye in the postseason with a victory.
Cincinnati, which holds a one-game edge over Denver and is one game behind New England for the best record in the AFC, can also wrap up the AFC North with a win. "It will be fun, it's a great opportunity," Bengals coach Marvin Lewis said. "Both teams have earned it, and we've got to have at it." Brock Osweiler will make his sixth consecutive start in place of Peyton Manning for Denver, which blew a 17-point halftime lead in a 34-27 defeat at Pittsburgh last weekend. The Broncos still have a chance at the No. 2 seed but also had their lead cut to one game over Kansas City in the AFC West.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened as 3.5-point home favorites and were bet down to -3, but have come back up to the opening number. The total opened at 41 and has since come down 2-points to now sit at 39.
INJURY REPORT:
Bengals - WR A. Green (probable Monday, back), T J. Fisher (questionable Monday, concussion), S G. Iloka (questionable Monday, knee), WR M. Alford (questionable Monday, personal), TE T. Eifert (out Monday, concussion), QB A. Dalton (out indefinitely, thumb).
Broncos - RB C. Anderson (probable Monday, back), QB B. Osweiler (probable Monday, shoulder), S T. Ward (questionable Monday, ankle), S O. Bolden (questionable Monday, groin), S D. Stewart (questionable Monday, hamstring), LB L. McCray (questionable Monday, hamstring), QB P. Manning (out Monday, foot).
WEATHER REPORT: It will be a chilly night in Denver. It will be a clear night, but temperatures will be in the low 20's to high teens for the game.
POWER RANKINGS: Bengals (-3) - Broncos (-3) + home field (-3) = Broncos -3
CAPPERS SAY: "Despite the fact that TE Tyler Eifert didn?t play and AJ Green limped off the field early, backup QB AJ McCarron looked solid even with a VERY conservative gameplan at San Francisco. As for Denver, after going 8-8 on third downs while racking up 27 first half points against the Steelers, Brock Osweiler?s second half was ugly: 7-26 for 82 yards, with only one third down conversion."
ABOUT THE BENGALS (11-3, 11-2-1 ATS, 7-7 O/U): A.J. McCarron threw for two touchdowns and two interceptions in relief of Dalton in a loss to Pittsburgh, but was solid in a 24-14 win at San Francisco with 192 yards on 15-of-21 despite the absence of star tight end Tyler Eifert and limited nature of top wideout A.J. Green. With Eifert set to miss a second straight game due to a concussion and Cincinnati's ground game struggling the past two weeks, McCarron will have his hands full with the league's top-ranked defense. The Bengals are no slouches on the other side of the ball, allowing a league-low 17.4 points per game.
ABOUT THE BRONCOS (10-4, 8-6 ATS, 5-8-1 O/U): Osweiler threw for three touchdowns and ran for another in the first half alone against Pittsburgh, but for the third straight week he was unable to put any points on the scoreboard in the second half as Denver lost its second in a row. The running game has not been much of a factor all season, but Emmanuel Sanders came alive with 10 catches for 181 yards and a touchdown and fellow wideout Demaryius Thomas had a pair of scoring receptions. The Broncos were torched by Pittsburgh's passing game, but they are tied for the league lead with 47 sacks and feature the No. 1 run defense.
TRENDS:
* Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games.
* Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
* Under is 4-1 in Bengals last 5 vs. AFC.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Broncos last 7 home games.
CONSENSUS: Fifty-seven percent of bettors are backing the Broncos in this Monday night matchup. As for the total, 61 percent of wagers are on the over.
Monday, December 28
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Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Bengals at Broncos
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If the Bengals win, they clinch a bye. If the Broncos win, they clinch a playoff spot.
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-3.5, 39)
Both starting quarterbacks have been lost to injury, but the stakes are still high in Monday night's clash between the visiting Cincinnati Bengals and the Denver Broncos. Despite losing starter Andy Dalton to a fractured right thumb two weeks ago, the Bengals can wrap up the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye in the postseason with a victory.
Cincinnati, which holds a one-game edge over Denver and is one game behind New England for the best record in the AFC, can also wrap up the AFC North with a win. "It will be fun, it's a great opportunity," Bengals coach Marvin Lewis said. "Both teams have earned it, and we've got to have at it." Brock Osweiler will make his sixth consecutive start in place of Peyton Manning for Denver, which blew a 17-point halftime lead in a 34-27 defeat at Pittsburgh last weekend. The Broncos still have a chance at the No. 2 seed but also had their lead cut to one game over Kansas City in the AFC West.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened as 3.5-point home favorites and were bet down to -3, but have come back up to the opening number. The total opened at 41 and has since come down 2-points to now sit at 39.
INJURY REPORT:
Bengals - WR A. Green (probable Monday, back), T J. Fisher (questionable Monday, concussion), S G. Iloka (questionable Monday, knee), WR M. Alford (questionable Monday, personal), TE T. Eifert (out Monday, concussion), QB A. Dalton (out indefinitely, thumb).
Broncos - RB C. Anderson (probable Monday, back), QB B. Osweiler (probable Monday, shoulder), S T. Ward (questionable Monday, ankle), S O. Bolden (questionable Monday, groin), S D. Stewart (questionable Monday, hamstring), LB L. McCray (questionable Monday, hamstring), QB P. Manning (out Monday, foot).
WEATHER REPORT: It will be a chilly night in Denver. It will be a clear night, but temperatures will be in the low 20's to high teens for the game.
POWER RANKINGS: Bengals (-3) - Broncos (-3) + home field (-3) = Broncos -3
CAPPERS SAY: "Despite the fact that TE Tyler Eifert didn?t play and AJ Green limped off the field early, backup QB AJ McCarron looked solid even with a VERY conservative gameplan at San Francisco. As for Denver, after going 8-8 on third downs while racking up 27 first half points against the Steelers, Brock Osweiler?s second half was ugly: 7-26 for 82 yards, with only one third down conversion."
ABOUT THE BENGALS (11-3, 11-2-1 ATS, 7-7 O/U): A.J. McCarron threw for two touchdowns and two interceptions in relief of Dalton in a loss to Pittsburgh, but was solid in a 24-14 win at San Francisco with 192 yards on 15-of-21 despite the absence of star tight end Tyler Eifert and limited nature of top wideout A.J. Green. With Eifert set to miss a second straight game due to a concussion and Cincinnati's ground game struggling the past two weeks, McCarron will have his hands full with the league's top-ranked defense. The Bengals are no slouches on the other side of the ball, allowing a league-low 17.4 points per game.
ABOUT THE BRONCOS (10-4, 8-6 ATS, 5-8-1 O/U): Osweiler threw for three touchdowns and ran for another in the first half alone against Pittsburgh, but for the third straight week he was unable to put any points on the scoreboard in the second half as Denver lost its second in a row. The running game has not been much of a factor all season, but Emmanuel Sanders came alive with 10 catches for 181 yards and a touchdown and fellow wideout Demaryius Thomas had a pair of scoring receptions. The Broncos were torched by Pittsburgh's passing game, but they are tied for the league lead with 47 sacks and feature the No. 1 run defense.
TRENDS:
* Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games.
* Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
* Under is 4-1 in Bengals last 5 vs. AFC.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Broncos last 7 home games.
CONSENSUS: Fifty-seven percent of bettors are backing the Broncos in this Monday night matchup. As for the total, 61 percent of wagers are on the over.
MNF - Bengals at Broncos
December 28, 2015
The Bengals are headed to the playoffs while the Broncos on the verge of clinching a berth, but each team is down to their second-string quarterback for the immediate future. Denver led the AFC West with a 7-0 record halfway through the season, but Kansas City has made this division race interesting with one week remaining. The Chiefs held off the Browns on Sunday to improve to 10-5 and pull within a half-game of first place in the AFC West. Now, if Denver wins its final two games or Kansas City loses to Oakland next week, the Broncos will wrap up their fifth straight division title.
Cincinnati (11-3 SU, 11-2-1 ATS) travels west for the second straight week, coming off last Sunday’s 24-14 triumph at San Francisco to cash as seven-point favorites. A.J. McCarron stepped in for the injured Andy Dalton as the former Alabama quarterback threw for 192 yards and a touchdown to give the Bengals their third win over an NFC West foe this season. Cincinnati built a 24-0 advantage before San Francisco reached the end zone twice in the second half, while forcing four 49ers turnovers.
Two weeks ago, Denver (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) was in a prime spot to capture the top seed in the AFC playoffs as long as it finished December strong. However, Gary Kubiak’s team has lost back-to-back games to the Raiders and Steelers to potentially falling into a Wild Card spot. In last Sunday’s 34-27 setback at Pittsburgh, the Broncos blew a 27-10 second quarter lead and didn’t register a single point after halftime. Brock Osweiler put together one of his best games as a pro by throwing for 296 yards and three touchdowns, while former Steeler wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders hauled in 181 yards and a score in the loss.
These teams hooked up last December in a Monday night contest at Paul Brown Stadium, as the Bengals escaped with a 37-28 triumph as 3 ½-point underdogs. Denver erased a 20-7 deficit by outscoring Cincinnati, 21-7 to grab a 28-27 advantage heading into the fourth quarter. Mike Nugent put the Bengals in front with a field goal, followed by a Dre Kirkpatrick interception return of Peyton Manning for a touchdown and clinch the nine-point victory. The Bengals’ defense picked off Manning four times, while A.J. Green was held without a catch for Cincinnati.
Marvin Lewis’ squad has seen plenty of success on the road this season, posting a 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS mark away from Paul Brown Stadium. Cincinnati has faced only two teams on the highway that own winning records, losing at Arizona and beating Pittsburgh, while the Bengals are 3-0 SU/ATS against AFC West opponents this season.
The Broncos wrap up the regular season with consecutive home games as Denver hosts San Diego next week with the division title on the line. Denver hasn’t lost three consecutive contests since the end of the 2011 regular season with Tim Tebow at quarterback, while the Broncos have compiled a 10-2 record off a loss since September 2012.
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson breaks down the effect of each team losing its starting quarterback, “After leading Denver to wins in his first three starts, the Broncos have lost back-to-back games despite building early leads as Osweiler and the Broncos have had consecutive terrible second half performances from the offense. Cincinnati won with McCarron starting last week, but the offense struggled with very limited production against San Francisco and this figures to be a much tougher test against one of the top ranked defenses in the league and this matchup likely comes down to which quarterback has a better performance.”
Nelson believes this matchup is a toss-up in spite of the Broncos being favored, “Denver has had the upper hand in this AFC series winning SU in 13 of the last 16 meetings going back to 1983, but the Broncos appear in worse shape for this matchup with key injuries with the loss of safety David Bruton added to the mix as well as the distractions surrounding Manning in the headlines this weekend. For his part, Osweiler has played well in stretches through some big games already while this will be a big leap in class for McCarron in his second ever start in the NFL with the Bengals in a second straight road game out west.”
Tonight marks the final Monday night game of the season as underdogs put together a 12-3-1 ATS record, while winning nine times outright. Road underdogs posted a 5-0-1 ATS and 5-1 SU mark in the last six opportunities, including Detroit’s 35-27 triumph at New Orleans last Monday. Denver is making its first appearance on Monday night football this season, while Cincinnati looks to atone for a 10-6 home defeat to Houston as 10-point favorites back in Week 10.
From a totals perspective, the Broncos have cashed the ‘under’ in four of six games at Sports Authority Field this season, while the Bengals have finished ‘under’ the total in six of the previous eight games, following a 5-1 start to the ‘over.’ Cincinnati will be without standout tight end Tyler Eiffert for the second straight game due to a concussion suffered against Pittsburgh two weeks ago.
The Broncos are currently listed as a three-point favorite at most books, with the juice listed at -125 or -130, while other outlets have Denver listed at -3 ½ (-110). The total is set at 40 with frigid temperatures expected in the single-digits when the game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST. This AFC showdown can be seen on ESPN.
December 28, 2015
The Bengals are headed to the playoffs while the Broncos on the verge of clinching a berth, but each team is down to their second-string quarterback for the immediate future. Denver led the AFC West with a 7-0 record halfway through the season, but Kansas City has made this division race interesting with one week remaining. The Chiefs held off the Browns on Sunday to improve to 10-5 and pull within a half-game of first place in the AFC West. Now, if Denver wins its final two games or Kansas City loses to Oakland next week, the Broncos will wrap up their fifth straight division title.
Cincinnati (11-3 SU, 11-2-1 ATS) travels west for the second straight week, coming off last Sunday’s 24-14 triumph at San Francisco to cash as seven-point favorites. A.J. McCarron stepped in for the injured Andy Dalton as the former Alabama quarterback threw for 192 yards and a touchdown to give the Bengals their third win over an NFC West foe this season. Cincinnati built a 24-0 advantage before San Francisco reached the end zone twice in the second half, while forcing four 49ers turnovers.
Two weeks ago, Denver (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) was in a prime spot to capture the top seed in the AFC playoffs as long as it finished December strong. However, Gary Kubiak’s team has lost back-to-back games to the Raiders and Steelers to potentially falling into a Wild Card spot. In last Sunday’s 34-27 setback at Pittsburgh, the Broncos blew a 27-10 second quarter lead and didn’t register a single point after halftime. Brock Osweiler put together one of his best games as a pro by throwing for 296 yards and three touchdowns, while former Steeler wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders hauled in 181 yards and a score in the loss.
These teams hooked up last December in a Monday night contest at Paul Brown Stadium, as the Bengals escaped with a 37-28 triumph as 3 ½-point underdogs. Denver erased a 20-7 deficit by outscoring Cincinnati, 21-7 to grab a 28-27 advantage heading into the fourth quarter. Mike Nugent put the Bengals in front with a field goal, followed by a Dre Kirkpatrick interception return of Peyton Manning for a touchdown and clinch the nine-point victory. The Bengals’ defense picked off Manning four times, while A.J. Green was held without a catch for Cincinnati.
Marvin Lewis’ squad has seen plenty of success on the road this season, posting a 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS mark away from Paul Brown Stadium. Cincinnati has faced only two teams on the highway that own winning records, losing at Arizona and beating Pittsburgh, while the Bengals are 3-0 SU/ATS against AFC West opponents this season.
The Broncos wrap up the regular season with consecutive home games as Denver hosts San Diego next week with the division title on the line. Denver hasn’t lost three consecutive contests since the end of the 2011 regular season with Tim Tebow at quarterback, while the Broncos have compiled a 10-2 record off a loss since September 2012.
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson breaks down the effect of each team losing its starting quarterback, “After leading Denver to wins in his first three starts, the Broncos have lost back-to-back games despite building early leads as Osweiler and the Broncos have had consecutive terrible second half performances from the offense. Cincinnati won with McCarron starting last week, but the offense struggled with very limited production against San Francisco and this figures to be a much tougher test against one of the top ranked defenses in the league and this matchup likely comes down to which quarterback has a better performance.”
Nelson believes this matchup is a toss-up in spite of the Broncos being favored, “Denver has had the upper hand in this AFC series winning SU in 13 of the last 16 meetings going back to 1983, but the Broncos appear in worse shape for this matchup with key injuries with the loss of safety David Bruton added to the mix as well as the distractions surrounding Manning in the headlines this weekend. For his part, Osweiler has played well in stretches through some big games already while this will be a big leap in class for McCarron in his second ever start in the NFL with the Bengals in a second straight road game out west.”
Tonight marks the final Monday night game of the season as underdogs put together a 12-3-1 ATS record, while winning nine times outright. Road underdogs posted a 5-0-1 ATS and 5-1 SU mark in the last six opportunities, including Detroit’s 35-27 triumph at New Orleans last Monday. Denver is making its first appearance on Monday night football this season, while Cincinnati looks to atone for a 10-6 home defeat to Houston as 10-point favorites back in Week 10.
From a totals perspective, the Broncos have cashed the ‘under’ in four of six games at Sports Authority Field this season, while the Bengals have finished ‘under’ the total in six of the previous eight games, following a 5-1 start to the ‘over.’ Cincinnati will be without standout tight end Tyler Eiffert for the second straight game due to a concussion suffered against Pittsburgh two weeks ago.
The Broncos are currently listed as a three-point favorite at most books, with the juice listed at -125 or -130, while other outlets have Denver listed at -3 ½ (-110). The total is set at 40 with frigid temperatures expected in the single-digits when the game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST. This AFC showdown can be seen on ESPN.
Bengals, Broncos clash on MNF
December 26, 2015
CINCINNATI BENGALS (11-3) at DENVER BRONCOS (10-4)
Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Denver -3.5, Total: 41
The Bengals will head to Denver on Monday night to face a Broncos team that is suddenly no longer a lock to finish atop the AFC West.
The Bengals went into San Francisco on Sunday and came away with a 24-14 victory as seven-point favorites. Cincinnati was dominant defensively in that one, allowing just 55 rushing yards and forcing four turnovers.
The team will look to keep up the solid play on that end against a Broncos team that was lousy offensively in the second half of a 34-27 loss to the Steelers in Week 15. Denver has now lost two straight games and now finds itself with only a one-game lead over Kansas City in the AFC West.
The Broncos and Bengals have met just once over the past three seasons and Cincinnati was victorious in that contest. The Bengals hosted the Broncos in the game and won 37-28 as 3.5-point home underdogs. Since 1992, the Broncos are, however, 9-3 SU against the Bengals and that includes a 4-0 record in Denver. The Bengals have kept things interesting in the losses though, going 7-5 ATS overall and 3-1 ATS in Denver.
Cincinnati is 7-0 ATS in road games on the year, but does have to face a Denver team that is 8-0 ATS after allowing 50 or less rushing yards in two straight games since 1992.
QB Andy Dalton (Thumb) remains out for the Bengals and TE Tyler Eifert (Concussion) is questionable for the team. The Broncos could be without RB C.J. Anderson (Back), who is questionable for this game. However, they could get back S T.J. Ward (Ankle), who has missed the past few games and is listed as questionable for Monday night.
The Bengals dominated the 49ers on Sunday, winning 24-14 in a game that truly never seemed like it was going to get away. AJ McCarron looked excellent in his first start for Cincinnati, throwing for 192 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. He completed 71.4% of his passes and will have the Bengals in position to win games as long as he isn’t turning the ball over.
The guy that was responsible for most of Cincinnati’s points was Jeremy Hill. Hill rushed for just 31 yards on 19 carries, but he did find the end zone twice. He will need to run the ball well the rest of the way, as the Bengals will be leaning heavily on the ground game until Andy Dalton is back.
Cincinnati’s defense (17.4 PPG allowed, 1st in NFL) was superb against the 49ers, allowing just 14 points in the game. The Bengals are allowing just 93.2 YPG (8th in NFL) on the ground this season and were able to hold the 49ers to 55 yards on Sunday. If they can keep it up defensively then McCarron will be under a lot less pressure the rest of the season.
Brock Osweiler threw for 296 yards with three touchdowns and one pick in last week’s loss to the Steelers, but he completed just 47.7% of his throws. If he is to start over Peyton Manning on Monday then he will need to be a lot more accurate. His inefficiency as a passer killed his team in the second half and it was a major reason they were unable to come away with a big road win in Pittsburgh.
Denver’s defense wasn’t much better though. The Broncos are allowing just 79.9 YPG on the ground this season (1st in NFL) and 200.0 YPG through the air (1st in NFL), but they were unable to stop Pittsburgh on Sunday. Antonio Brown shredded the Broncos defense for 189 yards and two touchdowns. He had 16 receptions in the game and Denver will need to turn things around on Monday night. A matchup with the inexperienced AJ McCarron could be just what the doctor ordered and this Broncos team will come out with plenty of emotion, as it does not want to let its division lead slip away. Sportsbook.ag
December 26, 2015
CINCINNATI BENGALS (11-3) at DENVER BRONCOS (10-4)
Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Denver -3.5, Total: 41
The Bengals will head to Denver on Monday night to face a Broncos team that is suddenly no longer a lock to finish atop the AFC West.
The Bengals went into San Francisco on Sunday and came away with a 24-14 victory as seven-point favorites. Cincinnati was dominant defensively in that one, allowing just 55 rushing yards and forcing four turnovers.
The team will look to keep up the solid play on that end against a Broncos team that was lousy offensively in the second half of a 34-27 loss to the Steelers in Week 15. Denver has now lost two straight games and now finds itself with only a one-game lead over Kansas City in the AFC West.
The Broncos and Bengals have met just once over the past three seasons and Cincinnati was victorious in that contest. The Bengals hosted the Broncos in the game and won 37-28 as 3.5-point home underdogs. Since 1992, the Broncos are, however, 9-3 SU against the Bengals and that includes a 4-0 record in Denver. The Bengals have kept things interesting in the losses though, going 7-5 ATS overall and 3-1 ATS in Denver.
Cincinnati is 7-0 ATS in road games on the year, but does have to face a Denver team that is 8-0 ATS after allowing 50 or less rushing yards in two straight games since 1992.
QB Andy Dalton (Thumb) remains out for the Bengals and TE Tyler Eifert (Concussion) is questionable for the team. The Broncos could be without RB C.J. Anderson (Back), who is questionable for this game. However, they could get back S T.J. Ward (Ankle), who has missed the past few games and is listed as questionable for Monday night.
The Bengals dominated the 49ers on Sunday, winning 24-14 in a game that truly never seemed like it was going to get away. AJ McCarron looked excellent in his first start for Cincinnati, throwing for 192 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. He completed 71.4% of his passes and will have the Bengals in position to win games as long as he isn’t turning the ball over.
The guy that was responsible for most of Cincinnati’s points was Jeremy Hill. Hill rushed for just 31 yards on 19 carries, but he did find the end zone twice. He will need to run the ball well the rest of the way, as the Bengals will be leaning heavily on the ground game until Andy Dalton is back.
Cincinnati’s defense (17.4 PPG allowed, 1st in NFL) was superb against the 49ers, allowing just 14 points in the game. The Bengals are allowing just 93.2 YPG (8th in NFL) on the ground this season and were able to hold the 49ers to 55 yards on Sunday. If they can keep it up defensively then McCarron will be under a lot less pressure the rest of the season.
Brock Osweiler threw for 296 yards with three touchdowns and one pick in last week’s loss to the Steelers, but he completed just 47.7% of his throws. If he is to start over Peyton Manning on Monday then he will need to be a lot more accurate. His inefficiency as a passer killed his team in the second half and it was a major reason they were unable to come away with a big road win in Pittsburgh.
Denver’s defense wasn’t much better though. The Broncos are allowing just 79.9 YPG on the ground this season (1st in NFL) and 200.0 YPG through the air (1st in NFL), but they were unable to stop Pittsburgh on Sunday. Antonio Brown shredded the Broncos defense for 189 yards and two touchdowns. He had 16 receptions in the game and Denver will need to turn things around on Monday night. A matchup with the inexperienced AJ McCarron could be just what the doctor ordered and this Broncos team will come out with plenty of emotion, as it does not want to let its division lead slip away. Sportsbook.ag
NFL ATS
NFL > (131) CINCINNATI@ (132) DENVER | 2015-12-28 20:30:00 - 2015-12-28 20:30:00
Play ON CINCINNATI against the spread in All games in road games
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses for the this season (+7 units)
--------------------
NFL MONEYLINE
NFL > (131) CINCINNATI@ (132) DENVER | 2015-12-28 20:30:00 - 2015-12-28 20:30:00
Play AGAINST CINCINNATI using money line in Road games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 11 Wins and 53 Losses for the since 1992 (-36.2 units)
NFL > (131) CINCINNATI@ (132) DENVER | 2015-12-28 20:30:00 - 2015-12-28 20:30:00
Play ON CINCINNATI against the spread in All games in road games
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses for the this season (+7 units)
--------------------
NFL MONEYLINE
NFL > (131) CINCINNATI@ (132) DENVER | 2015-12-28 20:30:00 - 2015-12-28 20:30:00
Play AGAINST CINCINNATI using money line in Road games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 11 Wins and 53 Losses for the since 1992 (-36.2 units)
