Thursday's Top Action
October 29, 2015
ATLANTA HAWKS at NEW YORK KNICKS
Tip-off: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Hawks -4, Total 199
The Hawks will be seeking to build on last season’s success on Thursday as they make their first road trip of the season at the lowly Knicks.
Atlanta is coming off its best season in franchise history, and is hoping to soar even higher this year. The Hawks won 60 games (60-22 SU) and were 55-40-3 ATS (58%, 2nd-best in NBA) including the playoffs, en route to a first-place finish in the Eastern Conference. The season came to a halt in the conference finals, where Atlanta was swept in four games by Cleveland. The team benefited greatly from a home-court advantage (40-9 SU) as opposed to playing on the road (28-21 SU), though they were a slightly better bet in away games (27-19-3 ATS) than in Atlanta (28-21 ATS).
At the bottom of the Eastern Conference, New York had a historically bad season in 2014-2015, setting a team record for losses with a 17-65 mark and going 34-46-2 ATS (43%, T-3rd-worst in league). The Knicks proved to be a worse bet at Madison Square Garden (16-25 ATS, 39%, T-4th-lowest NBA) than on the road (18-20-2 ATS), and were awful in the second half of back-to-backs (3-18 SU, 9-12 ATS), which is the scenario they are in for Thursday after a trip to Milwaukee to open the season.
In three meetings between the teams last season, Atlanta was 2-1 (SU and ATS), though New York squeaked by the Hawks in the last matchup 112-108.
The Hawks roster is in good health, as F/G Thabo Sefolosha (ankle) is the only questionable player for Thursday. For New York, there are some notable injuries with SG Arron Afflalo (hamstring) doubtful, PF Lou Amundson (back) questionable and SF Carmelo Anthony (knee) and C Robin Lopez (undisclosed) both probable.
Atlanta’s offense was solid last season, with 101.8 PPG (11th in league) on 46.0% FG (5th in NBA) and a sharp-shooting 36.9% on threes (T-2nd in league). The team truly played as a disciplined unit under NBA Coach of the Year Mike Budenholzer, averaging 26.8 assists per game (2nd in NBA) and committing a league-low 18.1 personal fouls per game.
The Hawks’ defense was similarly proficient, tying for 5th in the NBA with 97.3 PPG allowed, 43.7% FG, and 15.1 turnovers generated per game. Atlanta will be attempting to replicate last season’s success without SF DeMarre Carroll (12.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.7 APG), who signed with the Toronto Raptors in the offseason, but hope to fill his shoes with the newly-acquired C Tiago Splitter and SG Tim Hardaway Jr.
The team will once again have great balance with underrated PG Jeff Teague (16.8 PPG, 6.7 APG) running the show, PF Paul Millsap (15.2 PPG, 8.7 RPG) and C Al Horford (14.4 PPG, 8.6 RPG) down low and SG Kyle Korver (11.1 PPG, 36% threes) providing the long-range shooting. Korver was the club's top scorer versus New York last season with 21.0 PPG on 48% threes, while Millsap averaged 15.0 PPG and 8.5 RPG and Teague chipped in 13.7 PPG, 6.7 APG and only 1.7 TOPG.
New York’s offensive statistics last season reflected their worst-in-the-conference record. The team scored a league-low 91.9 PPG on 42.8% FG (28th in NBA), but was perfectly average from beyond the arc, shooting 34.7% (tied for 15th in league).
The Knicks also had difficulty on the boards at 48.5 RPG (29th in NBA) and struggled in other defensive facets, as they allowed 101.2 PPG (19th in league) on 46.0% FG (tied for 26th in NBA), and were particularly susceptible to three-point shots, allowing a league-worst 38.0% from downtown. New York parted ways with Hardaway (for Atlanta’s 1st Round draft pick) and C Jason Smith, but hopes several key additions – including fourth overall pick PF Kristaps Porzingis, C Robin Lopez, SG Arron Afflalo, C Kyle O’Quinn, and PF Derrick Williams – will help the team turn their fortunes around this season.
The offense will still revolve around SF Carmelo Anthony, who averaged 24.2 PPG (5th in NBA among players with 40+games) and 6.6 RPG last season, including 22.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG and 4.5 APG in two games versus Atlanta.
DALLAS MAVERICKS at LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Tip-off: Thursday, 10:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Clippers -11, Total 210
The Mavericks hope to spoil the Clippers’ home opener Thursday in a Western Conference showdown.
Dallas was 50-32 last regular season, good enough for the seventh seed in the Western Conference. The team was also 35-48-4 ATS (42%) including its playoffs appearance when it lost in five games to Houston. The Mavericks were 23-21 SU in road games last season, but just 19-24-1 ATS (44%). After traveling to Phoenix to open the 2015-16 campaign, Dallas will be playing Thursday on zero days' rest, a situation in which it performed a subpar 6-11 ATS mark (35%) last season.
Los Angeles earned the No. 3 seed in the West with a franchise-best 56 wins (56-26 SU) but were just 44-51-1 ATS (47%) including playoffs where the team took out the Spurs in a thrilling seven-game series before falling in seven games to Houston in the second round. While the Clippers were a force to be reckoned with at home last season (34-14 SU), they were a poor ATS wager at Staples Center (19-29 ATS, 40%).
L.A. will also play the night before in Sacramento, but this team thrived on back-to-backs last season, going 20-4 SU (10-10 ATS) with zero days rest.
In the past 10 meetings, Dallas is only 3-7 SU and 5-5 ATS versus Los Angeles, finishing 1-2 SU and ATS in their three matchups last season, though the Mavericks thrashed the Clippers 129-99 in their most recent game in March.
Dallas is currently riddled by injuries with C JaVale McGee (leg) out indefinitely and with PG Deron Williams (calf) and SF Chandler Parsons (knee) both questionable for this matchup. The good news is that SG Wesley Matthews is expected to return from a ruptured Achilles.
Los Angeles has two notable injuries with SG Lance Stephenson (groin) listed as questionable and SG Jamal Crawford (tricep) considered probable.
Dallas displayed a high-octane offense last season, averaging 105.5 PPG (3rd in league) on 46.2% FG (4th in NBA). The Mavericks had some difficulties pulling down rebounds at 50.1 RPG (23rd in league), but excelled at protecting the ball in surrendering only 12.6 turnovers per game (tied for 4th in NBA). Dallas’ defense was severely lacking though, as the team spotted opponents an average of 103.0 PPG (25th in league) on 45.1% FG (18th in NBA) and 36.4% three-point shooting (27th in league).
PF Dirk Nowitzki was the high-scorer in the season series with the Clippers, averaging 19.0 PPG on a blistering 56% FG in the three meetings.
The Mavericks saw some high-profile departures in the offseason, including PG Rajon Rondo, C Tyson Chandler, SG/PG Monta Ellis, and SF Al-Farouq Aminu, but will welcome the additions of SG Wes Matthews, PG Deron Williams, C/PF Zaza Pachulia, C JaVale McGee, and 1st round draft pick SG/SF Justin Anderson.
Los Angeles was an offensive juggernaut last season, scoring 106.9 PPG (2nd in NBA) on 47.2% FG (2nd in league), while draining 36.9% of its three-point shots (tied for 2nd in NBA). The team struggled with personal fouls, committing an average of 21.8 per game (26th in league), but coughed up only 11.9 turnovers per game (2nd in NBA). For all of their success on offense, the Clippers’ defensive play was average. The team allowed opponents to score 101.1 PPG (18th in NBA) on 44.3% FG (11th in league) and 35.0% of three-point shots (tied for 15th in NBA).
Los Angeles had five players average at least 16.0 PPG in the series with Dallas last season and all five return to the team this season -- PF Blake Griffin (22.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG in 1 game), SG Jamal Crawford (20.5 PPG in 2 games), PG Chris Paul (17.7 PPG, 11.0 APG in 3 games), C DeAndre Jordan (17.0 PPG, 20.0 RPG in 3 games) and SG J.J. Redick (16.0 PPG, 53% threes in 3 games).
The Clippers parted ways with SF Matt Barnes and C/PF Spencer Hawes, but were quite active in the offseason, acquiring SF Paul Pierce, SG Lance Stephenson, PF Josh Smith, F/G Wes Johnson, PG Pablo Prigioni, and C Cole Aldrich.
