NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 15
Buccaneers (6-7) @ Rams (5-8)-- Tampa Bay was all but KO'd by home loss to Saints last week; Bucs are 4-2 vs spread on road- this is their fifth dome game this year (2-2, with all four staying under). Rams snapped 5-game skid LW; they're 4-3 at home this year- there is an undercurrent that this could easily be Rams' last game in St Louis, should team move out to LA. St Louis won last three series games; two of three were in Tampa. Bucs lost three of four visits here, losing 23-13 in last visit here, in '13. NFC West non-divisional home teams are 9-8 vs spread; NFC South road clubs are 11-7. Under is 4-1 in Bucs' last five games, 8-1 in last nine St Louis games. Tampa Bay is 1-5 if it scores less than 23 points, a figure Rams held five of last eight opponents under.
Jets (8-5) @ Cowboys (4-9)-- Jets won last three games, scoring 30.3 ppg; they're in 3-way battle for two Wild Card slots. Dallas is 1-8 in games started by backups; in their last three games they were outscored 40-6 in first half, with no TDs. Cowboys are 1-5 at home, with only win by point over Giants in Week 1. Jets are +15 in turnovers in their eight wins, -13 in five losses; Cowboys has eight takeaways all season (-15). Gang Green lost its last three true road games by 7-14-7 points- their only true road victory was 20-7 at Indy in Week 2. Dallas is 7-3 in series, with all seven wins by 10+ points; Jets lost two of three visits here, with last visit in '07. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 8-13 vs spread, 4-5 at home; AFC East road favorites are 4-6. Under is 4-1 in last five games for both teams.
Bears (5-8) @ Vikings (8-5)-- Minnesota scored 10 points in last 1:49 to nip Bears 23-20 in Chicago in Week 8 (-1), first road series win in last seven meetings. Bears lost last three in Minnesota by 7-3-4 points. Four of last five series games were decided by 4 or less points. Nine of Bears' last ten games were decided by 6 or less points; Chicago won last three road games, is 5-0 vs spread on road with Cutler at QB (Clausen lost 26-0 at Seattle). Vikings are 1-3 in last four games- the lost last two home tilts by combined 68-20. Home teams are 1-8 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this year. Minnesota is 10-3 vs spread this year, 4-1 as home favorite; they've had three extra days since Thursday loss to Arizona. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Minnesota games.
Falcons (6-7) @ Jaguars (5-8)-- Free-falling Atlanta lost seven of eight games since starting 5-0; Jaguars are 4-3 in last seven games after 1-5 start- they're only game out of first place in hideous AFC South. Jags outscored Indy 42-3 in second half Sunday;the average total in their last three games is 68. Jax is 5-1-1 vs spread in last seven games; they're 3-3 at home, 1-2 as home favorites. Falcons are 2-1 as underdogs; they're 0-9 vs spread last nine weeks. AFC South non-divisional home favorites are 3-5 vs spread; NFC South road underdogs are 5-5. Underdogs are 5-1 vs spread week after playing Carolina; favorites are 0-4-2 week after playing J'ville. Last seven Atlanta games stayed under total; over is 9-3 in last dozen Jaguar games. If you value positive/negative momentum, Jaguars are the side for you.
Texans (6-7) @ Colts (6-7)-- Indy (+5) won 27-20 at Houston in Week 5, thanks to plus-2 turnover ratio and Texans scoring one TD on three red zone drives. Colts won last six series games; Texans are 0-13 in Indy, losing last three visits here by 12-22-7 points. QB issues on both sides; could be TJ Yates vs Charlie Whitehurst in game with division lead on line. Colts lost 45-10/51-16 last two games; they were outscored 42-3 in second half Sunday by Jags. Indy is 3-3 at home, winning by 3-13-3 points (1-3 as home favorite). Houston lost 30-21/27-6 last two games; they're 2-4 as road underdogs, with all four losses by 7+ points. Teams are 3-6 week after playing Jaguars. Six of last nine Indy games went over total; five of last six Houston games stayed under.
Chiefs (8-5) @ Ravens (4-9)-- Streaking KC is first team since 1970 to win seven in a row after losing five in row; Chiefs won last three road games, all by 14+- they're 5-3 vs spread as favorite. Teams are 7-2-1 vs spread week after playing San Diego. 11 of 13 Raven games were decided by 6 or less points; 2-4 at home, with three losses by 4 or less- they're 3-2 as underdogs, 0-1 at home. Baltimore won three of last four games in series where visitor won six of last seven meetings. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 7-10 vs spread, 2-4 on road; AFC North underdogs are 8-7-1, 2-2 at home. Under is 3-1-1 in last five Raven games; over is 4-2-1 in KC road games. If Clausen is starting again, keep in mind he's started two games this year, both vs Seattle, losing 26-0/35-6.
Bills (6-7) @ Redskins (6-7)-- Buffalo is on road for fifth time in last six weeks; they've lost three in row on road, by 7-8-3 points. Bills won last six games with Redskins, last of which was a 23-0 win in Toronto. Last home game for Washington team that is 5-2 at home, losing last one to Dallas; Skins are tied for first in NFC Least, finish with Iggles/Dallas. Buffalo's defense allowed five TDs, two FGs on foes' first drive of second half; only Colts have given up more points. Redskins allowed 71.3 rushing ypg last three weeks; Buffalo has run ball for 156 ypg last three weeks but has struggled on red zone. NFC East non-divisional home teams are 6-10 vs spread, AFC East road teams 7-7. Under is 5-2 in Redskin home games, 4-1 in last five Buffalo road games.
Titans (3-10) @ Patriots (11-2)-- New England is #1 seed in AFC right now; they close at Jets/Miami, get home field thru playoffs if they win out. Patriots won last five games with Tennessee, last three all by 17+ points. This is 11th time in 14 games Pats are favored by 7+ points (4-3-3 as favorite of 7+)- they're 3-1-3 as home favorites. Tennessee was in tank at Swamp Sunday, trailing 27-0 at half; Titans are 3-3 as road dogs; three of four losses on road were by 14+ points. Tennessee scored 34+ in each of its three wins; they're 1-8 vs the spread when scoring less than 33 points. Under is 3-1-1 in last five Tennessee games, 5-2 in last seven Patriot tilts. In last five games, Tennessee started 38 drives 80+ yards from goal line, their opponents 20- they're getting killed in field position battle.
Cardinals (10-2) @ Eagles (6-7)-- Arizona won last seven games, clinches NFC West title with win here; Redbirds won last seven games, but covered one of last four- they're 4-2 as road favorites. Eagles scored 35-23 points in winning last two games; they're 6-1 if they score 23+ points, 0-6 if they don't. Arizona allowed 23+ in five of 13 games, none of last three. Cardinals had -3 turnover ratio in both losses this year. West non-divisional favorites are 9-9 vs spread, 5-3 on road; NFC East underdogs are 8-13, 4-5 at home. Last three Cardinal games stayed under total; three of last four Philly games went over. Arizona won four of last five series games; home side is 7-1 in last eight in series.
Panthers (13-0) @ Giants (6-7)-- Unbeaten Carolina is 5-4 vs Giants; last four in series were decided by 13+ points. Panthers scored 33+ in last four games; they're 4-1 as road favorites this year- five of their last six wins were by 8+. Giants allowed 25 ppg in losing last two home games; they're on short week after Monday nite win in Miami. Carolina has run ball for 147 ypg in last four games. Giants are 1-6 in games decided by less than 7 points. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 12-9, 5-3 on road; NFC East underdogs are 8-13, 4-5 at home. Over is 8-3 in last eleven Carolina games; three of last four Giant games stayed under the total.
Browns (3-10) @ Seahawks (8-5)-- Steamrolling Seattle scored 34.6 ppg in its five post-bye games, winning/covering last four; Seahawks haven't allowed an offensive TD in last two games- they're 3-3 as a home favorite- only TD they allowed in last two games was kick return when up 38-7. Cleveland lost seven of last eight games; they're 2-4 as road underdog, losing last three on road by combined 84-25. Teams split four series games; Browns lost 34-7 in only visit here, in '03. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 6-5-1 vs spread; NFC West home favorites are 4-6. Four of last five Cleveland games stayed under; over is 4-0-1 in last five Seattle games.
Packers (9-4) @ Raiders (6-7)-- McCarthy took over play calling last week and Green Bay ran ball for 230 yards on rainy day; they've won three of last four games, lead AFC North but have tough schedule rest of way. Pack is 3-2 as a road favorite. Oakland allowed 64 points in losing last two home games; they are 6-3 vs spread as an underdog this year. Packers won last six series games, last three by average of 42-10- this is only their third visit to Oakland (1-1, 1-1 vs Raiders in LA). NFC North non-divisional favorites are 9-7 vs spread, 1-3 on road; AFC West underdogs are 10-6, 3-1 at home. Eight of last ten Green Bay games stayed under total.
Dolphins (5-8) @ Chargers (3-10)-- This is likely Chargers' last home game in San Diego, will be an emotional day. Bolts are 1-8 since a 2-2 start; they tried hard in rainy Arrowhead LW, losing 10-3 with Rivers playing after being sick late in week. Chargers lost last five home games, didn't score TD in last two. Long travel on short week for Miami after Monday nite loss; Dolphins lost three of last four road games; they're 1-8 if they allow 20+ points, 4-0 if they hold foe under 20. Chargers scored more than 20 once in last five games. Home side won last five Dolphin-Charger games- Miami lost 23-13/26-16 in last two visits here. Four of last five San Diego games stayed under total.
Broncos (10-3) @ Steelers (8-5)-- Denver is 3-1 in Osweiler starts, but scored 17 or less points in three of four games. Steelers won four of last five games, scoring 30+ points in all five. Pitt is 3-1 as home favorite- their last three wins were all by 13+ points. Broncos are 4-0 SU as an underdog TY; they ran ball for only 34 yards LW, after running for 161 ypg in Osweiler's first three starts. Denver won four of last five series games; they won 24-21/31-20 in last two visits to Steel City. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 10-6 vs spread, 7-5 on road. AFC North favorites are 9-7, 7-5 at home. Three of four Osweiler starts stayed under total; four of last five Steeler games went over.
Bengals (10-3) @ 49ers (4-9)-- McCarron gets first NFL start here, with Dalton out with broken thumb; last Alabama QB to win NFL start was Jeff Rutledge in 1988 (Giants). 49ers are 3-3 SU at home (4-2 as home dogs) losing by 14-17-6 points. Bengals are 2-3 last five games after an 8-0 start; they're 5-1 on road, with only loss by FG at Arizona, but that was with Dalton at QB. Cincinnati turned ball over three times last week for first time this year. Niners are 11-3 vs Cincy, including two Super Bowl wins; Bengals lost five of six visits here, with only win in 1974. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 10-7 vs spread, 3-2 on road; NFC West underdogs are 7-9, 5-2 at home. Under is 5-2 in last seven games for both sides.
Lions (4-9) @ Saints (5-8)-- New Orleans snapped 4-game skid LW; they are 3-3 at home TY, 1-2-1 as home favorites, with wins by 6-10-3 at home- they're 3-8-1 in last 12 games as home faves. Detroit lost two in row; they're 0-9 vs spread this season when allowing more than 16 points. Lions lost five of six road games, with only win at Green Bay, where they hadn't won since '91- they're 2-3 as road underdogs. Saints won four of last five series games, with average total, 57.8; Detroit lost five of last six visits here, with all five losses by 11+ points. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 10-7 vs spread, 8-3 on road; NFC South favorites are 12-11, 7-6 at home. Since 2012, Detroit is 6-12 vs spread when getting points on the road.