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Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

According to ESPN.com, six of the biggest strength of schedule mismatches in the bowl games that start this weekend.........

-- Southern Miss vs Washington (#21 SOS)-- USM was 4-32 last three years.

-- Air Force vs California (#7 SOS)-- Golden Bears in first bowl in four years.

-- Marshall vs UConn (#69 SOS)-- Huskies are 3-2 all-time in bowl games.

-- Wisconsin vs USC (#3 SOS)-- How did Badgers play the #70-ranked schedule?

-- Central Michigan vs Minnesota (#25 SOS)-- Gophers have a new coach.

-- Arizona (#50 SOS) @ New Mexico-- Lobos are playing on their home field.

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud.......

13) Golden State is obviously best NBA team right now, but 3-4 years ago, when I was at the Las Vegas Summer League, it was striking that the Warriors had way more fans than any other team. I remember telling a friend of mine that if you didn't know, you would assume the Warriors were the best team in the NBA because of their big following, but at the time, they were nowhere near that. Strong, loyal fanbase.

12) Lebron James is making $22,970,580 this year; Kevin Love $19,689,000. Just seems a little weird; is Lebron underpaid or Love overpaid? Or both?

11) Bartolo Colon bags a $7.25M deal with the Mets for next year; not even sure if Colon will be in the rotation once Zack Wheeler comes back next summer.

10) Navy football coach Ken Niumatalolo turned BYU down, will stay with Navy next season. You wonder if BYU being an independent hurts them as they try and get a new coach? Cougars aren't on national TV every week like Notre Dame.

9) UNLV has made a 3-pointer in 952 straight games, which is every game they've played since the 3-point shot came into college ball 30 years ago.

8) White Sox acquired 3B Todd Frazier from the Reds in a 3-team deal with Reds and Dodgers; scouts were criticial of the return Cincinnati got back, while thinking that the Dodgers are trying to stockpile young talent to make a run at Jose Fernandez in a potential trade with the Marlins.

7) NHL ratings are up 12% this year on NBC Sports Network telecasts.

6) There have been 24 head coaching changes in college football this year; 11 of the 24 teams are playing in bowls. Bowling Green-Georgia Southern is a bowl where both teams have had really good seasons but both head coaches are gone already.

5) If a team plays badly in a mid or lesser-level bowl game, does that automatically mean "They didn't want to be there"? You hear guys on TV say this all the time, but sometimes team play badly in big games too and you know everyone wanted to be in that game. I'm thinking coaching turnover might have more to do with preparation for a bowl game. Players tend to enjoy games no matter when/where they are.

4) UCLA offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone was hospitalized this week with a blood clot in his lung. Bruins play Nebraska in a bowl game next week, so obviously their prep for that game has been disrupted. Get well soon, coach.

3) Texas A&M has QB issues; Kyle Allen is transferring and Kyler Murray missed practice Wednesday, amidst rumors that he will be gone too, but it was reported last night that Murray will be back practicing Thursday and will start the Aggies' bowl game on December 30 against Louisville.

2) Ryan Mallett signed on with QB-starved Ravens; Houston cut him after he acted like a 10-year old when Brian Hoyer was named starter, then later missed a team flight. It says a lot that it took him so long to latch on with another team.

1) Los Angeles Angels have been in top 10 in salary the last 12 years, but missed the playoffs five of last six years. They won a World Series under Mike Scioscia, but it was in 2002. In lot of places, Scioscia would have another job by now.
 

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NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, December 17

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TORONTO (16 - 10) at CHARLOTTE (14 - 10) - 12/17/2015, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CHARLOTTE is 48-73 ATS (-32.3 Units) in home games after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 6-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CHARLOTTE is 5-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (17 - 8) at CLEVELAND (16 - 7) - 12/17/2015, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 21-34 ATS (-16.4 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-1 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 2-2 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (12 - 14) at LA LAKERS (4 - 21) - 12/17/2015, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 126-82 ATS (+35.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
HOUSTON is 120-83 ATS (+28.7 Units) in road games after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 139-180 ATS (-59.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 23-35 ATS (-15.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 5-2 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 6-2 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, December 17

Hot teams
-- Raptors, Hornets both won four of last five games (Toronto 6-2 AU, Charlotte 4-4HF).
-- Oklahoma City won its last five games (1-1-1AU). Cavaliers won last three games, by 5-35-12 points (3-6 last nine HF).

Cold teams
-- Houston lost three of last four on road (2-3AF). Lakers lost six of their last seven games (2-3HU).

Series records
-- Raptors won their last two games with Charlotte, after losing previous six games with the Hornets.
-- Cavaliers-Thunder split their last ten games.
-- Lakers lost six of their last seven games with Houston.

Totals
-- Four of last five Toronto games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last nine Cavalier-Thunder games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Laker games went over the total.

Back/backs
-- Charlotte is 2-1SU (0-3 vs spread) if it played night before.




NBA

Thursday, December 17

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
TORONTO vs. CHARLOTTE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Charlotte
Toronto is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Charlotte
Charlotte is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Charlotte's last 6 games when playing Toronto

8:00 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Oklahoma City's last 10 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Oklahoma City is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cleveland's last 9 games at home

10:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. LA LAKERS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the LA Lakers last 6 games
LA Lakers are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games at home

 

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Dunkel

Thursday, December 17


Toronto @ Charlotte

Game 701-702
December 17, 2015 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
119.467
Charlotte
126.506
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Charlotte
by 6
190
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 1
196
Dunkel Pick:
Charlotte
(+1); Under

Oklahoma City @ Cleveland

Game 703-704
December 17, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
126.193
Cleveland
124.544
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 1 1/2
200
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 3 1/2
205
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma City
(+3 1/2); Under

Houston @ LA Lakers

Game 705-706
December 17, 2015 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
115.617
LA Lakers
107.556
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 8
219
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 6
213
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-6); Over
 

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Short Sheet

Thursday, December 17

Toronto at Charlotte, 7:05 ET
Toronto: 29-15 ATS in road games
Charlotte: 1-9 ATS in home games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more

Oklahoma City at Cleveland, 8:05 ET
Oklahoma City: 15-4 ATS after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite
Cleveland: 0-7 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins

Houston at LA Lakeers, 10:35 ET
Houston: 93-58 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses
Los Angeles: 1-10 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more
 

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Preview: Raptors (16-10) at Hornets (14-10)
Date: December 17, 2015 7:00 PM EDT

The Toronto Raptors could hardly even grasp the ball while losing a big lead and ultimately a winning streak in their previous game. The storyline was the same in Charlotte's last contest, though a bit more surprising.


The clubs will try to clean up their play when the visiting Raptors seek a third straight victory over the Hornets on Thursday night.


Toronto (16-10) had won four consecutive games heading into the opener of a three-game trip at Indiana on Monday and appeared well on its way to matching a season high with a fifth straight victory.


Things unraveled quickly for the Raptors, who coughed up a 26-5 first-quarter lead when the Pacers rolled through a massive 39-4 run en route to an easy 106-90 victory.


Toronto, still playing without regular starters DeMarre Carroll and Jonas Valanciunas, turned the ball over 13 times in the first half, leading to 17 Indiana points. Overall, the Pacers converted 21 Raptors miscues into 22 points.


The loss also ended the Raptors' four-game road winning streak and dropped them to 8-6 away from home.


"You can't develop bad habits from it," coach Dwane Casey said. "You have to flush it and go to the next game. The most important play is the next play."


Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan each finished with 20 points, but the rest of the team shot just 31.9 percent. DeRozan has averaged 23.8 points in his last five games against the Hornets, while Lowry has averaged 25.0 in his last three.


A two-day break was a welcome sight for Toronto, which played three games in four days to close a stretch of eight in 13. The Hornets, meanwhile, are trying to bounce back from their own clunker in the closer of their second back-to-back set in a week.


Charlotte (14-10) is turning the ball over a league-low 12.6 times per game but committed seven in the first quarter alone during Wednesday's 113-98 loss at Orlando.


The Hornets finished with 16 giveaways that led to 25 Magic points and lost their second straight following four consecutive wins.


"The whole tone for the game was set by turnovers in the first quarter," coach Steve Clifford said. "That led to wide open shots and that's how some of their guys got going. We never got our defense where it was good enough to make a real run in the game."


Orlando shot 55.8 percent - a season high for a Charlotte opponent - and made 14 of 24 from 3-point range.


The Hornets made 45.6 percent of their shots, but the starting five finished 16 of 40. Charlotte's top two scorers, Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum, combined for 18 points on 6-of-19 shooting.


The Hornets have played the last seven games without center Al Jefferson due to a calf strain, and although he's now healthy, the 12-year veteran will miss the next five while serving a suspension for violating the NBA's drug policy. He will be eligible to return when Charlotte hosts Memphis on Dec. 26.


Charlotte is 2-1 in the second of back-to-backs, though the lone loss came with Saturday's 98-93 defeat against Boston. The Hornets are 10-4 at Time Warner Cable Arena, but they have split their last six games there.


Toronto has won the last two meetings in this series, but the Hornets took the previous six. The Raptors' 92-74 win April 8 ended an eight-game skid in Charlotte.
 

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Preview: Thunder (17-8) at Cavaliers (16-7)
Date: December 17, 2015 8:00 PM EDT

Signs were pointing to Cleveland's star point guard making his season debut against the hottest team in basketball. Now, not only will he remain sidelined, but the Cavaliers could be without another guard who was two games into his return.


Kyrie Irving won't suit up Thursday night at home against the Oklahoma City Thunder, and Iman Shumpert's status isn't yet known.


Irving's return seemed imminent after joining Cleveland (16-7) on a road trip to Orlando and Boston, but he didn't play despite coach David Blatt saying last week there was a possibility he would be back after missing the start of the season while recovering from broken kneecap. Irving then said Wednesday via Twitter that reports of him facing Oklahoma City were inaccurate.


"Sorry to dwindle the news, but I won't be returning tmrw. It was wrongfully reported. When I do come back you'll hear it directly from me," he wrote.


Even with Irving, the Thunder (17-8) at present would make for a considerable challenge. Wednesday's 106-90 home win over Portland was their sixth straight and 10th in their last 12 after starting 7-6. With an 88-67 lead after the third quarter, no one played 30 minutes, so they could be fresh entering the more daunting end of this back-to-back.


"Definitely easy," said Russell Westbrook, who matched a season-low with 13 points and has shot 35 percent in the last two games. "Don't got to do much. Don't got to play the fourth quarter. Get a chance to rest."


Huge offensive efforts from Kevin Durant and Westbrook have defined such streaks from the Thunder for years, but it's been defense that's fueled this one. The Thunder have held seven straight opponents under 100 points, including an overtime game. On the winning streak, opponents have shot 40.5 percent.


That's not to say Durant hasn't been impressive. He's averaged 25.5 points on the streak, which is 1.8 under his season average, but he's done so while shooting 58.4 percent. His 112.2 offensive rating thus far this season is better than even his 109.7 mark from his 2013-14 MVP campaign.


A season after missing the playoffs in large part due to massive injury disruptions, Oklahoma City again has the Cavaliers' attention.


"It should be a great game," Cleveland guard Mo Williams said. "Obviously, they're one of the better teams in our league."


The Cavs have also been impressive as they open a three-game homestand looking to improve on their 10-1 record there. They've won three straight, with the two road victories coming by an average of 23.5 points.


Tuesday's 89-77 win over the Celtics followed Friday's 111-76 victory over the Magic with the teams combining to shoot 35.2 percent, so they too have been doing it on the defensive end.


"We want to do this every single game, and it's just attention to detail. When our attention to detail is there, we're very good defensively," Williams said.


The road wins were Shumpert's first two games back from wrist surgery, but the shooting guard - traded to Cleveland in a three-team deal in January that sent Dion Waiters to Oklahoma City - left Tuesday's win in the second half with a groin injury.


The teams split two games in each of the last three seasons. Cleveland's 108-98 home win on Jan. 25 was the latest meeting and is part of a 17-2 regular-season span against the Western Conference with 10 straight wins at home.


LeBron James had 34 points in that latest meeting after missing the loss in Oklahoma City on Dec. 11, 2014. He's averaged 33.8 points and shot 56.5 percent in his last six games against the Thunder and is at 27.3 on 57.6 percent on the current winning streak.
 

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Preview: Rockets (12-14) at Lakers (4-21)
Date: December 17, 2015 10:30 PM EDT

Dwight Howard insists a recent report that he's unhappy with the Rockets is a lie, but the truth is there's not much going right in Houston these days.


The Rockets' upcoming schedule is going to make it harder for the league's most disappointing team to find its footing.


That makes Thursday night's date with the Los Angeles Lakers so significant, not only to avoid a winless three-game trip but to head toward a daunting slate around the holidays with even a glimmer of confidence.


Houston (12-14) won seven of nine following Thanksgiving, and although six of those came against sub-.500 teams, there seemed to be promise of a turnaround.


But the Rockets followed Saturday's 126-97 rout of the Lakers with a pair of uninspiring defensive efforts in losses to Denver and Sacramento on Monday and Tuesday. In the hours between those games, a report surfaced that Howard wasn't happy with his role and wanted out during his third season in Houston following one in Los Angeles.


"I haven't said nothing to nobody about anything," Howard said. "I've been positive and trying to help turn this thing around every way possible. People are always going to make up lies and rumors to get off. But I haven't said nothing about anything to anybody. That has never been my focus. I'm trying to get these guys to play better and get myself to play better. So why would I say that to anybody?"


Getting Howard involved offensively seems to be in everyone's best interest. The Rockets are 7-1 when he scores at least 14 points, and they're 5-10 when he has seven field-goal attempts or fewer or doesn't play.


He spent much of Tuesday's 107-97 loss to the Kings in foul trouble and finished with four points as Houston allowed a second straight opponent to shoot 50 percent.


"Whatever it was, we need to play harder and figure it out," James Harden said. "That's the type of messages that are sent. Our defense will get there, but we have to make it get there. We're showing spurts on defense but we are not consistent."


Perhaps Houston's best effort on that end came Saturday, when it limited the Lakers to 39.8 percent, forced 20 turnovers and held a 62-28 scoring edge in the paint. Howard scored 18 points on 7-of-8 shooting against his former team.


After a rematch with Los Angeles (4-21), the Rockets are going to find the schedule less forgiving. Houston's slate so far has been the league's lightest - its opponents have a .466 winning percentage entering Wednesday - but seven of the next eight clubs it faces are above .500, including two against San Antonio and one against Golden State.


The Lakers had two days off after playing eight games in 12 days to begin December, and a little rest seemed to do wonders. Los Angeles put seven players in double figures in a 113-95 rout of Milwaukee on Tuesday, led by 22 from Kobe Bryant.


"I think this is the blueprint tonight of how we've got to play every game," said Jordan Clarkson, who returned after missing the previous two with an ankle sprain.


The Lakers assisted on a season-high 26 of their 41 field goals, a big step for a team that assists on just 52 percent of its baskets - fourth worst in the NBA. A second straight efficient performance from Bryant - who was 7 of 15 after going 9 for 16 against the Rockets - didn't hurt.


"I'm consistently feeling good now," Bryant said. "I feel like I have my legs underneath me."


Houston has won four straight against the Lakers at Staples Center behind 32.8 points per game from Harden and won the two Howard has played by a combined 44 points.
 

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NBA MONEYLINE


NBA > (705) HOUSTON@ (706) LA LAKERS | 2015-12-17 22:30:00 - 2015-12-17 22:30:00
Play AGAINST HOUSTON using money line in All games as a favorite
The record is 8 Wins and 9 Losses for the this season (-21.8 units)


NBA > (701) TORONTO@ (702) CHARLOTTE | 2015-12-17 19:00:00 - 2015-12-17 19:00:00
Play AGAINST TORONTO using money line in All games after a loss by 10 points or more
The record is 10 Wins and 10 Losses for the last three seasons (-24.7 units)


NBA > (705) HOUSTON@ (706) LA LAKERS | 2015-12-17 22:30:00 - 2015-12-17 22:30:00
Play AGAINST HOUSTON using money line in All games in all games
The record is 12 Wins and 14 Losses for the this season (-20.05 units)


NBA > (703) OKLAHOMA CITY@ (704) CLEVELAND | 2015-12-17 20:00:00 - 2015-12-17 20:00:00
Play ON CLEVELAND using money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 38 Wins and 19 Losses for the last two seasons (+19.7 units)


----------------------


NBA FIRST HALF


NBA > (703) OKLAHOMA CITY@ (704) CLEVELAND | 2015-12-17 20:00:00 - 2015-12-17 20:00:00
Play AGAINST OKLAHOMA CITY ?>in the first halfin Road games after 3 or more consecutive unders
The record is 2 Wins and 15 Losses for the last three seasons (-14.5 units)


NBA > (703) OKLAHOMA CITY@ (704) CLEVELAND | 2015-12-17 20:00:00 - 2015-12-17 20:00:00
Play AGAINST CLEVELAND ?>in the first halfin All games first half of the season
The record is 17 Wins and 37 Losses for the last two seasons (-23.7 units)
 

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Inside the Paint - Thursday
December 17, 2015


Thursday’s NBA slate features three games on tap, which includes the nationally televised double-header on TNT. Some bettors could be feeling a little confident after last night’s results, especially those that leaned heavily to the ‘chalk.’


Favorites produced an eye-opening 10-2 record both straight up and against the spread. The two underdogs to win weren’t that surprising as Magic (+1) and Pelicans (+3) captured outright wins.


Usually the point-spread plays a factor in the Association but that hasn’t been the case yet this week. Since Monday, favorites are 20-6 SU and 19-5-1 ATS.


That trend could continue tonight with tight numbers set for Thursday.


Toronto at Charlotte: The Hornets are coming off a 113-98 loss at Orlando last night and will be playing on no rest in this spot. So far, Charlotte has gone 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS in back-to-back situations this season with the two victories coming by a combined seven points. The Raptors had their four-game winning streak snapped on Monday as they lost as 4 ½-point road underdogs at Indiana, 106-90. Despite that loss, Toronto has been a solid road bet this season (8-6 SU, 8-5-1 ATS).


Charlotte has been a very sound bet at home, going 10-4 SU and 7-6-1 ATS. Delving into those numbers further, the Hornets are 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS when favored at home. The Raptors have been installed as short road favorites (-1) and Charlotte is 2-3 in this role as a home underdog.


These teams split the four regular season meetings last year with each team winning on each other’s court once. The total went 2-2.


Oklahoma City at Cleveland: This is a great game between two of the top five contenders in the NBA and the oddsmakers opened the Cavaliers as three-point home favorites over the Thunder with a total of 205. The home team went 2-0 both SU and ATS in the regular season meetings between the pair last season and the ‘under’ cashed in both games.


Cleveland enters this game with three straight wins, which includes a pair of impressive back-to-back road victories over the Magic (111-76) and Celtics (89-77). The Cavaliers have the 76ers and Knicks on deck so the look-ahead angle can be ignore and the focus should be on OKC in this spot.


The Thunder will be playing on zero days rest after ripping Portland 106-90 at home last night. OKC has gone 2-2 both SU and ATS in back-to-back spots this season and the ‘under’ has gone 3-1 during this span.


Including Wednesday’s win, the Thunder have captured six straight victories (4-2 ATS) and nine of their last 11 games since Kevin Durant returned to the lineup from an ankle injury. The two losses during this span were by three and six points and they both came to Eastern Conference opponents in the Hawks (106-100) and Heat (98-95).


Surprisingly, the Thunder have struggled against the East this season with a 6-6 record and they’ve gone 4-8 ATS in those games. Delving into those numbers further, OKC has gone 2-3 in non-conference road games but the losses were tight, two of them mentioned above.


The Cavaliers have played the West four times this season and its gone 3-1 SU and 1-3 ATS while the ‘over’ has produced a 3-1 mark.


Cleveland has slightly leaned to the ‘over’ (12-11) this season but OKC has been a clear-cut ‘under’ (17-8) winner thus far despite being ranked second in scoring with 107.6 points per game.


Houston at L.A. Lakers: The Rockets opened as six-point road favorites over the Lakers and they continue to be a tough team to figure out. After winning seven of nine, Houston has dropped two straight games. Tonight, the club will be looking to salvage its three-game road trip with at least one win but it’s tough to back them in this situation knowing the Rockets are 2-3 both SU and ATS as road favorites.


Making a case for the Lakers isn’t easy either but they did run past the Bucks 113-95 as home ‘dogs on Tuesday, which snapped a six-game losing streak. Including that win, Los Angeles is 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS at home and four of those losses were by double digits.


The Rockets should be confident as they blasted the Lakers 126-97 last Saturday as 11 ½-point home favorites. Including this result, Houston has won and covered six of the last seven games against Los Angeles.


The point-spread has never mattered in Houston’s 12 road games this season. It’s only 5-7 but when the Rockets have won, they’ve covered and when they lose its lights out for them. For those looking to buy the Lakers outright, you can a decent money-line wager around 2/1 odds.


The Lakers (106.8 PPG) and Rockets (107.1 PPG) are both near the bottom of the league in scoring defense and that’s why you’re looking at a total of 213 for tonight’s game.
 

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Rockets head to Los Angeles
December 17, 2015


HOUSTON ROCKETS (12-14) at LOS ANGELES LAKERS (4-21)


Tip-off: Thursday, 10:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Houston -5.5


The Lakers will be looking to win their second straight game when they face a struggling Rockets team on Thursday.


The Rockets would be in the postseason if the season was to end today, but the team has looked miserable recently. Houston is coming off of back-to-back losses both SU and ATS in Denver and Sacramento respectively. The Rockets have allowed 110.5 PPG over the past two contests and will need to tighten things up defensively moving forward. One plus is that they did beat the Lakers 126-97 as 11.5-point home favorites on Dec. 12. Los Angeles could come into this one with confidence, though, as the team beat Milwaukee 113-95 in its most recent game.


One thing that favors the Rockets coming into this game is the fact that they are 4-2 both SU and ATS when facing Pacific division opponents on the season. It also helps that they’ll be playing a Lakers group that is a pathetic 0-12 SU and 1-11 ATS against Western Conference teams this year. Both teams enter this contest on Thursday at close to full strength.


The Rockets are not playing nearly as well as they could be this season and a lot of that has to do with the usage of C Dwight Howard (12.6 PPG, 11.6 RPG, 1.8 BPG). The big man is averaging just 8.3 shot attempts per game and that is really unacceptable. Howard is a force in the paint and if the Rockets want to start winning games then they should really start getting him more touches around the basket.


SG James Harden (29.0 PPG, 6.7 APG, 6.2 RPG, 1.9 SPG) has been doing everything he can to win this team games, but if Howard could step it up then it would take a bit off his shoulders. Harden should be excited to play against this Lakers team, though. He had 30 points in 32 minutes of action when they faced off on Dec. 12 and should be able to repeat that performance on Thursday.


Another player that will be important for the Rockets is PG Patrick Beverley (8.2 PPG, 1.3 SPG). Beverley is a fantastic defender and the Rockets will need him to do a good job of guarding Los Angeles’ many talented perimeter players. If he can do that then Harden will be able to use less energy on the defensive end.


The Lakers are coming off of a win over the Bucks and one thing that is really standing out is the improved play of SG Kobe Bryant (16.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.1 SPG). Bryant was off to an embarrassingly bad start to the season, but he is averaging 23.5 PPG, 6.0 APG, 5.0 RPG and 1.5 SPG over the past two contests (one being against Houston on Dec. 12). In those games, Bryant shot a combined 16-for-31 from the field and 7-for-16 from the outside. He is playing more efficiently and will need to continue to do so moving forward.


Another player who is really a bright spot for Los Angeles is PG D’Angelo Russell (12.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 3.4 APG). Over the past five contests, Russell is averaging 17.4 PPG, 4.4 APG and 1.6 SPG in 31.2 MPG. He is starting to earn the trust of his coaches and teammates and his ability to drive to the rim and find his teammates is something that will really make him a stud in the future.
 

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Tech Trends - Week 15


THURSDAY, DEC. 17


TAMPA BAY at ST. LOUIS (NFL NETWORK, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Bucs 9-4 vs. spread last 13 as visitor, while Rams 1-4-1 last six vs. line this season. Rams also “under” 8-1 last nine in 2015.
Tech Edge: Bucs and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.




SATURDAY, DEC. 19


N.Y. JETS at DALLAS (NFL NETWORK, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Cowboys 3-8 vs. line last 11 this season, also 1-5 vs. spread in 2015 at Arlington. Jets have covered last three TY and 6-2 vs. spread last 8 as visitor.
Tech Edge: Jets, based on team trends.



SUNDAY, DEC. 20


CHICAGO at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Vikes 10-3 vs. line this season, now 18-5 last 23 vs. number since mid 2014. Bears, however, are 4-0-1 vs. spread last five away. Minny also “under” 14-8-2 since mid 2014.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Vikings, based on “totals” and team trends.




ATLANTA at JACKSONVILLE (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcons no covers last nine this season! Jags 5-2 last seven vs. spread, also “over” last 3 and 10 of last 14 since late 2014.
Tech Edge: Jags and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.




HOUSTON at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Colts 6-0 SU, 5-0-1 vs. line last six meetings. Texans “over” 4-1-1 away this season.
Tech Edge: Slight to Colts and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.




KANSAS CITY at BALTIMORE (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Ravens 0–5-1 vs. spread as host this season, 0-8-1 last nine vs. number at M&T Bank Stadium. Ravens also “under” 4-1 last five this season. Chiefs 7-0 SU, 6-1 vs. line last seven in 2015.
Tech Edge: Chiefs and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.




BUFFALO at WASHINGTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Skins 5-2 SU, 4-3 vs. line at FedEx Field this season. Also “under” 5-2 as host this season. Bills 1-4-1 vs. line last six away from Orchard Park.
Tech Edge: Slight to Redskins and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.




TENNESSEE at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Patriots 8-4-2 last 14 vs. spread at Gillette, 2-0 as DD chalk this season though just 3-8 in that role since 2012. Belichick has won last three vs. Titans since 2006 by 17, 59, and 21 points. Titans just 4-12-1 last 17 vs. number on road (2-4 this season).
Tech Edge: Patriots and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.




CAROLINA at N.Y. GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Panthers 13-0 SU, 10-3 vs. line TY, now 17-0 SU and 12-4-1 vs. spread last 17 reg.-season games. G-Men just 2-5 last seven as home dog (1-1 TY).
Tech Edge: Panthers, based on team trends.




CLEVELAND at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Seattle 20-4-1 vs. line in last seven games of regular season since 2012. Browns 1-6 vs. line last seven this season.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team trends.




GREEN BAY at OAKLAND (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Pack only 7-7 vs. line last 14 away in reg.-season play. Pack also “under” 13-6 last 19 reg.-season games. Raiders, however, “over” 9-4 this season, but just 2-4 vs. spread at Coliseum in 2015.
Tech Edge: Slight to packers, based on team trends.




MIAMI at SAN DIEGO (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Chargers 7-17 last 24 vs. line since early 2014, no covers last six and 1-11 vs. line last 12 at Qualcomm. Dolphins 15 vs. line last six this season.
Tech Edge: Slight to Dolphins, based on Charger negatives.




DENVER at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Denver 6-3-1 vs. number last ten away and 3-0 as dog this season. Steel “over” last three TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Broncos, based on recent Denver underdog mark.




CINCINNATI at SAN FRANCISCO (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Cincy 10-2-1 vs. line this season, but 0-1 SU and vs. line in games when Andy Dalton did not finish. 49ers 4-2 vs. line at Levi’s this season, all as dog. SF also “under” 6-1 last seven at home.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on 49er home “totals” trends.




ARIZONA at PHILADELPHIA (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Cards “under” last three after “over” 8-2 first ten this season. Big Red 4-2 vs. line away TY. Birds had been “over” three straight prior to Bills game.
Tech Edge: Slight to Cards, based on team trends.




MONDAY, DEC. 21


DETROIT at NEW ORLEANS (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Saints on their third 2-game cover streak this season, but have yet to cover three in a row. Saints also “over” 8-4-1 last 13 at Superdome. Lions 2-4 vs. spread away this season, 2-9 vs. number last 11 away from Ford Field.
Tech Edge: Saints and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
 

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Dunkel

Week 15


Tampa Bay @ St. Louis

Game 301-302
December 17, 2015 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
129.541
St. Louis
126.512
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 3
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
by 3
41
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+3); Under


NY Jets @ Dallas

Game 303-304
December 19, 2015 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
131.247
Dallas
130.182
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 1
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 3 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+3 1/2); Under


Houston @ Indianapolis

Game 309-310
December 20, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
124.464
Indianapolis
128.545
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 4
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
N/A

Kansas City @ Baltimore

Game 311-312
December 20, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
141.266
Baltimore
126.743
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 14 1/2
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 7
42
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-7); Under

Buffalo @ Washington

Game 313-314
December 20, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
133.637
Washington
129.092
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 4 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 1
44
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(-1); Over

Tennessee @ New England

Game 315-316
December 20, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
122.009
New England
140.492
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 18
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 14
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-14); Over

Arizona @ Philadelphia

Game 317-318
December 20, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
135.402
Philadelphia
133.996
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 1 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 4
50
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+4); Over

Carolina @ NY Giants

Game 319-320
December 20, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
143.436
NY Giants
133.908
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 9 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 5
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-5); Over

Cleveland @ Seattle

Game 321-322
December 20, 2015 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
123.421
Seattle
146.630
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 23
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 14
43
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-14); Under

Green Bay @ Oakland

Game 323-324
December 20, 2015 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
137.262
Oakland
130.878
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 6 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 3
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-3); Under

Miami @ San Diego

Game 325-326
December 20, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
124.319
San Diego
130.265
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 6
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
by 1 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(-1 1/2); Over

Chicago @ Minnesota

Game 305-306
December 20, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
126.034
Minnesota
133.552
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 7 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 5
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-5); Over

Denver @ Pittsburgh

Game 327-328
December 20, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
133.957
Pittsburgh
136.954
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 6 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+6 1/2); Over

Atlanta @ Jacksonville

Game 307-308
December 20, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
131.179
Jacksonville
130.201
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 3
48
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+3); Over

Cincinnati @ San Francisco

Game 329-330
December 20, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
130.833
San Francisco
128.488
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 2 1/2
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 5
41
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+5); Under


Detroit @ New Orleans

Game 331-332
December 21, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
131.414
New Orleans
128.422
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 3
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3
51
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+3); Under
 

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Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 15


Buccaneers (6-7) @ Rams (5-8)-- Tampa Bay was all but KO'd by home loss to Saints last week; Bucs are 4-2 vs spread on road- this is their fifth dome game this year (2-2, with all four staying under). Rams snapped 5-game skid LW; they're 4-3 at home this year- there is an undercurrent that this could easily be Rams' last game in St Louis, should team move out to LA. St Louis won last three series games; two of three were in Tampa. Bucs lost three of four visits here, losing 23-13 in last visit here, in '13. NFC West non-divisional home teams are 9-8 vs spread; NFC South road clubs are 11-7. Under is 4-1 in Bucs' last five games, 8-1 in last nine St Louis games. Tampa Bay is 1-5 if it scores less than 23 points, a figure Rams held five of last eight opponents under.


Jets (8-5) @ Cowboys (4-9)-- Jets won last three games, scoring 30.3 ppg; they're in 3-way battle for two Wild Card slots. Dallas is 1-8 in games started by backups; in their last three games they were outscored 40-6 in first half, with no TDs. Cowboys are 1-5 at home, with only win by point over Giants in Week 1. Jets are +15 in turnovers in their eight wins, -13 in five losses; Cowboys has eight takeaways all season (-15). Gang Green lost its last three true road games by 7-14-7 points- their only true road victory was 20-7 at Indy in Week 2. Dallas is 7-3 in series, with all seven wins by 10+ points; Jets lost two of three visits here, with last visit in '07. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 8-13 vs spread, 4-5 at home; AFC East road favorites are 4-6. Under is 4-1 in last five games for both teams.


Bears (5-8) @ Vikings (8-5)-- Minnesota scored 10 points in last 1:49 to nip Bears 23-20 in Chicago in Week 8 (-1), first road series win in last seven meetings. Bears lost last three in Minnesota by 7-3-4 points. Four of last five series games were decided by 4 or less points. Nine of Bears' last ten games were decided by 6 or less points; Chicago won last three road games, is 5-0 vs spread on road with Cutler at QB (Clausen lost 26-0 at Seattle). Vikings are 1-3 in last four games- the lost last two home tilts by combined 68-20. Home teams are 1-8 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this year. Minnesota is 10-3 vs spread this year, 4-1 as home favorite; they've had three extra days since Thursday loss to Arizona. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Minnesota games.


Falcons (6-7) @ Jaguars (5-8)-- Free-falling Atlanta lost seven of eight games since starting 5-0; Jaguars are 4-3 in last seven games after 1-5 start- they're only game out of first place in hideous AFC South. Jags outscored Indy 42-3 in second half Sunday;the average total in their last three games is 68. Jax is 5-1-1 vs spread in last seven games; they're 3-3 at home, 1-2 as home favorites. Falcons are 2-1 as underdogs; they're 0-9 vs spread last nine weeks. AFC South non-divisional home favorites are 3-5 vs spread; NFC South road underdogs are 5-5. Underdogs are 5-1 vs spread week after playing Carolina; favorites are 0-4-2 week after playing J'ville. Last seven Atlanta games stayed under total; over is 9-3 in last dozen Jaguar games. If you value positive/negative momentum, Jaguars are the side for you.


Texans (6-7) @ Colts (6-7)-- Indy (+5) won 27-20 at Houston in Week 5, thanks to plus-2 turnover ratio and Texans scoring one TD on three red zone drives. Colts won last six series games; Texans are 0-13 in Indy, losing last three visits here by 12-22-7 points. QB issues on both sides; could be TJ Yates vs Charlie Whitehurst in game with division lead on line. Colts lost 45-10/51-16 last two games; they were outscored 42-3 in second half Sunday by Jags. Indy is 3-3 at home, winning by 3-13-3 points (1-3 as home favorite). Houston lost 30-21/27-6 last two games; they're 2-4 as road underdogs, with all four losses by 7+ points. Teams are 3-6 week after playing Jaguars. Six of last nine Indy games went over total; five of last six Houston games stayed under.


Chiefs (8-5) @ Ravens (4-9)-- Streaking KC is first team since 1970 to win seven in a row after losing five in row; Chiefs won last three road games, all by 14+- they're 5-3 vs spread as favorite. Teams are 7-2-1 vs spread week after playing San Diego. 11 of 13 Raven games were decided by 6 or less points; 2-4 at home, with three losses by 4 or less- they're 3-2 as underdogs, 0-1 at home. Baltimore won three of last four games in series where visitor won six of last seven meetings. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 7-10 vs spread, 2-4 on road; AFC North underdogs are 8-7-1, 2-2 at home. Under is 3-1-1 in last five Raven games; over is 4-2-1 in KC road games. If Clausen is starting again, keep in mind he's started two games this year, both vs Seattle, losing 26-0/35-6.


Bills (6-7) @ Redskins (6-7)-- Buffalo is on road for fifth time in last six weeks; they've lost three in row on road, by 7-8-3 points. Bills won last six games with Redskins, last of which was a 23-0 win in Toronto. Last home game for Washington team that is 5-2 at home, losing last one to Dallas; Skins are tied for first in NFC Least, finish with Iggles/Dallas. Buffalo's defense allowed five TDs, two FGs on foes' first drive of second half; only Colts have given up more points. Redskins allowed 71.3 rushing ypg last three weeks; Buffalo has run ball for 156 ypg last three weeks but has struggled on red zone. NFC East non-divisional home teams are 6-10 vs spread, AFC East road teams 7-7. Under is 5-2 in Redskin home games, 4-1 in last five Buffalo road games.


Titans (3-10) @ Patriots (11-2)-- New England is #1 seed in AFC right now; they close at Jets/Miami, get home field thru playoffs if they win out. Patriots won last five games with Tennessee, last three all by 17+ points. This is 11th time in 14 games Pats are favored by 7+ points (4-3-3 as favorite of 7+)- they're 3-1-3 as home favorites. Tennessee was in tank at Swamp Sunday, trailing 27-0 at half; Titans are 3-3 as road dogs; three of four losses on road were by 14+ points. Tennessee scored 34+ in each of its three wins; they're 1-8 vs the spread when scoring less than 33 points. Under is 3-1-1 in last five Tennessee games, 5-2 in last seven Patriot tilts. In last five games, Tennessee started 38 drives 80+ yards from goal line, their opponents 20- they're getting killed in field position battle.


Cardinals (10-2) @ Eagles (6-7)-- Arizona won last seven games, clinches NFC West title with win here; Redbirds won last seven games, but covered one of last four- they're 4-2 as road favorites. Eagles scored 35-23 points in winning last two games; they're 6-1 if they score 23+ points, 0-6 if they don't. Arizona allowed 23+ in five of 13 games, none of last three. Cardinals had -3 turnover ratio in both losses this year. West non-divisional favorites are 9-9 vs spread, 5-3 on road; NFC East underdogs are 8-13, 4-5 at home. Last three Cardinal games stayed under total; three of last four Philly games went over. Arizona won four of last five series games; home side is 7-1 in last eight in series.


Panthers (13-0) @ Giants (6-7)-- Unbeaten Carolina is 5-4 vs Giants; last four in series were decided by 13+ points. Panthers scored 33+ in last four games; they're 4-1 as road favorites this year- five of their last six wins were by 8+. Giants allowed 25 ppg in losing last two home games; they're on short week after Monday nite win in Miami. Carolina has run ball for 147 ypg in last four games. Giants are 1-6 in games decided by less than 7 points. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 12-9, 5-3 on road; NFC East underdogs are 8-13, 4-5 at home. Over is 8-3 in last eleven Carolina games; three of last four Giant games stayed under the total.


Browns (3-10) @ Seahawks (8-5)-- Steamrolling Seattle scored 34.6 ppg in its five post-bye games, winning/covering last four; Seahawks haven't allowed an offensive TD in last two games- they're 3-3 as a home favorite- only TD they allowed in last two games was kick return when up 38-7. Cleveland lost seven of last eight games; they're 2-4 as road underdog, losing last three on road by combined 84-25. Teams split four series games; Browns lost 34-7 in only visit here, in '03. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 6-5-1 vs spread; NFC West home favorites are 4-6. Four of last five Cleveland games stayed under; over is 4-0-1 in last five Seattle games.


Packers (9-4) @ Raiders (6-7)-- McCarthy took over play calling last week and Green Bay ran ball for 230 yards on rainy day; they've won three of last four games, lead AFC North but have tough schedule rest of way. Pack is 3-2 as a road favorite. Oakland allowed 64 points in losing last two home games; they are 6-3 vs spread as an underdog this year. Packers won last six series games, last three by average of 42-10- this is only their third visit to Oakland (1-1, 1-1 vs Raiders in LA). NFC North non-divisional favorites are 9-7 vs spread, 1-3 on road; AFC West underdogs are 10-6, 3-1 at home. Eight of last ten Green Bay games stayed under total.


Dolphins (5-8) @ Chargers (3-10)-- This is likely Chargers' last home game in San Diego, will be an emotional day. Bolts are 1-8 since a 2-2 start; they tried hard in rainy Arrowhead LW, losing 10-3 with Rivers playing after being sick late in week. Chargers lost last five home games, didn't score TD in last two. Long travel on short week for Miami after Monday nite loss; Dolphins lost three of last four road games; they're 1-8 if they allow 20+ points, 4-0 if they hold foe under 20. Chargers scored more than 20 once in last five games. Home side won last five Dolphin-Charger games- Miami lost 23-13/26-16 in last two visits here. Four of last five San Diego games stayed under total.


Broncos (10-3) @ Steelers (8-5)-- Denver is 3-1 in Osweiler starts, but scored 17 or less points in three of four games. Steelers won four of last five games, scoring 30+ points in all five. Pitt is 3-1 as home favorite- their last three wins were all by 13+ points. Broncos are 4-0 SU as an underdog TY; they ran ball for only 34 yards LW, after running for 161 ypg in Osweiler's first three starts. Denver won four of last five series games; they won 24-21/31-20 in last two visits to Steel City. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 10-6 vs spread, 7-5 on road. AFC North favorites are 9-7, 7-5 at home. Three of four Osweiler starts stayed under total; four of last five Steeler games went over.


Bengals (10-3) @ 49ers (4-9)-- McCarron gets first NFL start here, with Dalton out with broken thumb; last Alabama QB to win NFL start was Jeff Rutledge in 1988 (Giants). 49ers are 3-3 SU at home (4-2 as home dogs) losing by 14-17-6 points. Bengals are 2-3 last five games after an 8-0 start; they're 5-1 on road, with only loss by FG at Arizona, but that was with Dalton at QB. Cincinnati turned ball over three times last week for first time this year. Niners are 11-3 vs Cincy, including two Super Bowl wins; Bengals lost five of six visits here, with only win in 1974. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 10-7 vs spread, 3-2 on road; NFC West underdogs are 7-9, 5-2 at home. Under is 5-2 in last seven games for both sides.


Lions (4-9) @ Saints (5-8)-- New Orleans snapped 4-game skid LW; they are 3-3 at home TY, 1-2-1 as home favorites, with wins by 6-10-3 at home- they're 3-8-1 in last 12 games as home faves. Detroit lost two in row; they're 0-9 vs spread this season when allowing more than 16 points. Lions lost five of six road games, with only win at Green Bay, where they hadn't won since '91- they're 2-3 as road underdogs. Saints won four of last five series games, with average total, 57.8; Detroit lost five of last six visits here, with all five losses by 11+ points. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 10-7 vs spread, 8-3 on road; NFC South favorites are 12-11, 7-6 at home. Since 2012, Detroit is 6-12 vs spread when getting points on the road.
 

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Thursday, December 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football betting preview: Buccaneers at Rams
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tampa Bay's disappointing campaign has not deterred quarterback Jameis Winston, who threw for 182 yards versus the Saints to raise his season total to 3,059 - a franchise rookie record.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams (-1.5, 41)

A pair of high-profile rookies square off Thursday night as the St. Louis Rams host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their final home game of the season. St. Louis halted its five-game losing streak last week with a 21-14 triumph over Detroit at the Edward Jones Dome, where it has recorded four of its five wins this campaign.

Todd Gurley led the way for the Rams, running for 140 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries to climb within 25 of joining Eric Dickerson (1983) and Jerome Bettis (1993) as the only rookies in franchise history to rush for 1,000 yards. Tampa Bay's slim playoff hopes took a hit Sunday when it suffered a 24-17 loss to New Orleans at home. The Buccaneers, who haven't qualified for the postseason since 2007, are two games off the pace in the NFC wild-card race and could officially be eliminated from contention this weekend. Tampa Bay's disappointing campaign has not deterred quarterback Jameis Winston, who threw for 182 yards versus the Saints to raise his season total to 3,059 - a franchise rookie record.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened this game as a Pick, but that has moved to -1.5. The total has remained at the opening number of 41.

INJURY REPORT:

Bucs - DT Gerald McCoy (Probable, hand), LB Lavonte David (Probable, ankle), DT Akeem Spence (Questionable, ankle), G Logan Mankins (Questionable, undisclosed), DE George Johnson (Questionable, calf), DE Jacquies Smith (Questionable, hamstring), LB Bruce Carter (Questionable, leg), WR Vincent Jackson (Out indefinitely, knee), LB Kwon Alexander (Out for season, suspension), DT Clinton McDonald (I-R, pectoral), WR Louis Murphy (I-R, knee), T.J. Fatinikun (I-R, shoulder), WR Kenny Bell (I-R, hamstring), DE Larry English (I-R, knee).

Rams - RB Todd Gurley (Probable, knee), T Rob Havenstein (Questionable, calf), DE Robert Quinn (Questionable, back), T Andrew Donnal (Questionable, knee), CB Janoris Jenkins (Questionable, concussion), RB Trey Watts (Out for season, suspension), WR Stedman Bailey (I-R, head), S T.J. McDonald (I-R, shoulder), T Jamon Brown (I-R, leg), T Darrell Williams (I-R, wrist), CB E.J. Gaines (I-R, foot), LB Alec Ogletree (I-R, leg), G Rodger Saffold (I-R, shoulder).

WEATHER: N/A

POWER RANKINGS: Bucs (+1) + Rams (+5) + home field (-3.0) = Rams +1

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Bucs lost SU at home on Sunday, likely dooming their playoff chances. They also lost second leading receiver Vincent Jackson to a potential season ending MCL injury. Last week I wrote about Todd Gurley’s dramatic decline in this spot. Then Gurley stepped up with his best game in months on Sunday, gashing the Lions for 140 yards and two TD’s."

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS, 6-7 O/U): Doug Martin ranks second in the league with 1,214 rushing yards and third in the NFC with 1,413 yards from scrimmage. The 26-year-old has recorded six touchdowns in his last 10 games, including five on the ground. Winston is the third rookie quarterback in league history to eclipse the 3,000-yard mark.

ABOUT THE RAMS (5-8 SU, 5-7-1 ATS, 3-10 O/U): One bright spot for St. Louis this season has been its ability to get to the opposing quarterback. The Rams are second in the NFC with 36 sacks, including 11 by Aaron Donald. The 24-year-old, who is second in the conference in sacks, leads all NFL defensive tackles with 20 since the start of the 2014 campaign

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Buccaneers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games in December.
* Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six Thursday games.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-eight percent of bettors are backing the Rams.
 

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NFL ATS


NFL > (329) CINCINNATI@ (330) SAN FRANCISCO | 2015-12-20 16:25:00 - 2015-12-20 16:25:00
Play AGAINST SAN FRANCISCO against the spread in All games in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
The record is 0 Wins and 9 Losses for the last two seasons (-9.9 units)


NFL > (315) TENNESSEE@ (316) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games against conference opponents
The record is 3 Wins and 16 Losses for the last two seasons (-14.6 units)


NFL > (307) ATLANTA@ (308) JACKSONVILLE | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play AGAINST ATLANTA against the spread in All games off a division game
The record is 0 Wins and 8 Losses for the last two seasons (-8.8 units)


NFL > (321) CLEVELAND@ (322) SEATTLE | 2015-12-20 16:05:00 - 2015-12-20 16:05:00
Play ON SEATTLE against the spread in All games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
The record is 8 Wins and 0 Losses for the last three seasons (+8 units)

NFL > (315) TENNESSEE@ (316) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games in December games
The record is 0 Wins and 8 Losses for the last three seasons (-8.8 units)

NFL > (305) CHICAGO@ (306) MINNESOTA | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play AGAINST CHICAGO against the spread in Road games in December games
The record is 11 Wins and 32 Losses for the since 1992 (-24.2 units)


NFL > (321) CLEVELAND@ (322) SEATTLE | 2015-12-20 16:05:00 - 2015-12-20 16:05:00
Play ON SEATTLE against the spread in All games in December games
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+8.9 units)


NFL > (327) DENVER@ (328) PITTSBURGH | 2015-12-20 16:25:00 - 2015-12-20 16:25:00
Play ON DENVER against the spread in Road games in games played on a grass field
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+8.9 units)


NFL > (325) MIAMI@ (326) SAN DIEGO | 2015-12-20 16:25:00 - 2015-12-20 16:25:00
Play AGAINST MIAMI against the spread in All games in December games
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-7.7 units)


NFL > (329) CINCINNATI@ (330) SAN FRANCISCO | 2015-12-20 16:25:00 - 2015-12-20 16:25:00
Play ON CINCINNATI against the spread in all games
The record is 10 Wins and 2 Losses for the this season (+7.8 units)


-----------------------


NFL MONEYLINE


NFL > (319) CAROLINA@ (320) NY GIANTS | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play ON CAROLINA using money line in All games after 2 or more consecutive wins
The record is 14 Wins and 2 Losses for the last two seasons (+13.2 units)


NFL > (331) DETROIT@ (332) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-21 20:30:00 - 2015-12-21 20:30:00
Play AGAINST NEW ORLEANS using money line in Home games in December games
The record is 20 Wins and 33 Losses for the since 1992 (-43.95 units)


NFL > (315) TENNESSEE@ (316) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE using money line in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 7 Wins and 28 Losses for the last three seasons (-25.9 units)


NFL > (317) ARIZONA@ (318) PHILADELPHIA | 2015-12-20 20:30:00 - 2015-12-20 20:30:00
Play ON ARIZONA using money line in All games in games where the money line is +130 to -150
The record is 15 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+13.8 units)


NFL > (319) CAROLINA@ (320) NY GIANTS | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play ON CAROLINA using money line in All games as a favorite
The record is 16 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+14.5 units)


NFL > (331) DETROIT@ (332) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-21 20:30:00 - 2015-12-21 20:30:00
Play AGAINST NEW ORLEANS using money line in Home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
The record is 17 Wins and 19 Losses for the since 1992 (-37.2 units)

NFL > (315) TENNESSEE@ (316) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line in All games in games played on turf
The record is 35 Wins and 4 Losses for the last three seasons (+27.2 units)


NFL > (303) NY JETS@ (304) DALLAS | 2015-12-19 20:25:00 - 2015-12-19 20:25:00
Play AGAINST DALLAS using money line in Home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season
The record is 17 Wins and 22 Losses for the since 1992 (-36.8 units)


NFL > (319) CAROLINA@ (320) NY GIANTS | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play ON CAROLINA using money line in All games in December games
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+11.3 units)


NFL > (325) MIAMI@ (326) SAN DIEGO | 2015-12-20 16:25:00 - 2015-12-20 16:25:00
Play ON MIAMI using money line in All games against AFC West division opponents
The record is 41 Wins and 15 Losses for the since 1992 (+32.6 units)


NFL > (301) TAMPA BAY@ (302) ST LOUIS | 2015-12-17 20:25:00 - 2015-12-17 20:25:00
Play AGAINST TAMPA BAY using money line in All games in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
The record is 2 Wins and 13 Losses for the last three seasons (-14 units)


NFL > (313) BUFFALO@ (314) WASHINGTON | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play AGAINST WASHINGTON using money line in Home games when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 30 Wins and 33 Losses for the since 1992 (-47.75 units)


---------------------

NFL FIRST HALF



NFL > (311) KANSAS CITY@ (312) BALTIMORE | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play AGAINST BALTIMORE ?>in the first halfin All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 0 Wins and 8 Losses for the this season (-8.8 units)


NFL > (301) TAMPA BAY@ (302) ST LOUIS | 2015-12-17 20:25:00 - 2015-12-17 20:25:00
Play ON ST LOUIS ?>in the first halfin All games as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 16 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+12.7 units)


NFL > (325) MIAMI@ (326) SAN DIEGO | 2015-12-20 16:25:00 - 2015-12-20 16:25:00
Play AGAINST MIAMI ?>in the first halfin Road games after playing on Monday night football
The record is 3 Wins and 17 Losses for the since 1992 (-15.7 units)


NFL > (319) CAROLINA@ (320) NY GIANTS | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play ON CAROLINA ?>in the first halfin Road games against NFC East division opponents
The record is 19 Wins and 4 Losses for the since 1992 (+14.6 units)


NFL > (327) DENVER@ (328) PITTSBURGH | 2015-12-20 16:25:00 - 2015-12-20 16:25:00
Play ON PITTSBURGH ?>in the first halfin Home games against conference opponents
The record is 15 Wins and 3 Losses for the last three seasons (+11.7 units)


NFL > (321) CLEVELAND@ (322) SEATTLE | 2015-12-20 16:05:00 - 2015-12-20 16:05:00
Play AGAINST SEATTLE ?>in the first halfin Home games after 2 or more consecutive wins
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-7.7 units)


NFL > (301) TAMPA BAY@ (302) ST LOUIS | 2015-12-17 20:25:00 - 2015-12-17 20:25:00
Play ON ST LOUIS ?>in the first halfin All games as a home underdog of 1.5 points or less vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 21 Wins and 6 Losses for the since 1992 (+14.4 units)


NFL > (303) NY JETS@ (304) DALLAS | 2015-12-19 20:25:00 - 2015-12-19 20:25:00
Play AGAINST NY JETS ?>in the first halfin All games in games where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5
The record is 1 Wins and 9 Losses for the last two seasons (-8.9 units)


NFL > (307) ATLANTA@ (308) JACKSONVILLE | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play AGAINST JACKSONVILLE ?>in the first halfin All games when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 1 Wins and 9 Losses for the last two seasons (-8.9 units)


----------------------


NFL TOTALS


NFL > (331) DETROIT@ (332) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-21 20:30:00 - 2015-12-21 20:30:00
Play UNDER DETROIT on the totalin Road games in games played on turf
The record is 0 Overs and 10 Unders for the last three seasons (+10 units)


NFL > (319) CAROLINA@ (320) NY GIANTS | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play OVER CAROLINA on the totalin Road games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 9 Overs and 0 Unders for the last two seasons (+9 units)


NFL > (307) ATLANTA@ (308) JACKSONVILLE | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the totalin All games after 2 or more consecutive losses
The record is 0 Overs and 9 Unders for the last two seasons (+9 units)


NFL > (331) DETROIT@ (332) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-21 20:30:00 - 2015-12-21 20:30:00
Play UNDER DETROIT on the totalin Road games against conference opponents
The record is 2 Overs and 15 Unders for the last three seasons (+12.8 units)

NFL > (321) CLEVELAND@ (322) SEATTLE | 2015-12-20 16:05:00 - 2015-12-20 16:05:00
Play UNDER CLEVELAND on the totalin All games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season
The record is 0 Overs and 9 Unders for the last three seasons (+9 units)


NFL > (307) ATLANTA@ (308) JACKSONVILLE | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the totalin Road games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 1 Overs and 11 Unders for the last two seasons (+9.9 units)


NFL > (331) DETROIT@ (332) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-21 20:30:00 - 2015-12-21 20:30:00
Play UNDER DETROIT on the totalin All games when playing on Monday night
The record is 1 Overs and 12 Unders for the since 1992 (+10.9 units)


NFL > (305) CHICAGO@ (306) MINNESOTA | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play UNDER MINNESOTA on the totalin All games as a favorite
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the this season (+7 units)


NFL > (319) CAROLINA@ (320) NY GIANTS | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play UNDER CAROLINA on the totalin All games off a win against a division rival
The record is 17 Overs and 46 Unders for the since 1992 (+27.3 units)


NFL > (331) DETROIT@ (332) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-21 20:30:00 - 2015-12-21 20:30:00
Play UNDER DETROIT on the totalin All games in all games where the first half total is 25 or higher
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders for the last three seasons (+8 units)
 

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THURSDAY, DECEMBER 17


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


TOR at CHA 07:00 PM


CHA +2.5 DOUBLE PLAY


O 194.0 DOUBLE PLAY





OKC at CLE 08:00 PM


OKC +3.0 TRIPLE PLAY


O 203.5 TRIPLE PLAY





HOU at LAL 10:30 PM


HOU -6.0 *****


O 215.0 *****
 

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Messages
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*******..............single plays
double plays
triple plays
slam dunk.............4 units
 

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Joined
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Messages
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Tokens
Preview: Trail Blazers (11-16) at Magic (14-11)
Date: December 18, 2015 7:00 PM EDT

Though major offseason personnel losses were expected to reduce the Portland Trail Blazers' chances of competing in a deep Western Conference, their early season struggles can be attributed more to a lack of success against the East.


They'll try to reverse those recent fortunes in interconference play as they continue a road trip Friday night against the improving Orlando Magic.


Despite the departures of star forward LaMarcus Aldridge and three other starters from last season's 51-win team, Portland (11-16) has gone a respectable 10-10 within the loaded West. The Blazers are 1-6 against the East, though, losing 10 of 11 matchups with those teams overall.


Portland has dropped seven straight and 10 of 11 to East teams on the road. That includes a 111-104 loss March 20 to a Magic squad that's been considerably tougher than the one that went 25-57 last season.


Orlando (14-11) has won eight of 11 while showing better efficiency and resiliency under first-year coach Scott Skiles. After a 35-point home loss to Cleveland last Friday, the Magic responded with their best two shooting efforts of the season in back-to-back blowout victories.


The Magic shot 53.9 percent in Monday's 105-82 road win over Brooklyn, then hit 55.8 percent from the field in Wednesday's 113-98 defeat of Charlotte.


'It says a lot that we got back on track,' guard Elfrid Payton said. 'Sometimes those games are going to happen, but you can't let consecutive losses go on."


Channing Frye's hot streak has spurred the offensive surge. The veteran forward was 5 of 7 from 3-point range and scored a season-high 17 points against the Hornets, two days after going 3 of 5 from beyond the arc.


'We were missing him out there the last couple of games and now we found him,' Skiles said. 'Opponents have something else to be concerned about and that should open some other guys up.'


Orlando is shooting 51.1 percent on 3s during the win streak and was 14 of 24 on Wednesday.


The most recent win pushed the Magic to 8-4 at Amway Center, a major upgrade over last season's 13-28 mark. They've won three straight at home over Portland, loser of nine of 13 on the road after a 2-1 start.


The Trail Blazers are in the midst of a five-game trip in which they'll face three Southeast Division teams currently above .500. They got the trek off to a rough start by shooting 31.8 percent from inside the arc and a season-low 34.8 percent overall in Wednesday's 106-90 loss to surging Oklahoma City.


"I thought their defense was very good," Portland coach Terry Stotts said. "They were very good protecting the basket. They made it difficult for us."


The Blazers have had more success from outside, with guards C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard combining to make eight of 15 from 3-point range. McCollum scored 24 points and has averaged 22.4 while shooting 51.5 percent from beyond the arc in his last five.


Lillard added 20 points but was 0 for 9 in the second half after spraining his ankle in the second quarter. The All-Star point guard still expects to play Friday.
 

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