Game 6 - Raptors at Heat
May 12, 2016
Editor's note: Brian Edwards owns an 18-11 record (62%, +6 units) in the NBA Playoffs since April 25. Even better, he's cashed 11 of his last 15 guaranteed plays, including an easy winner on the Spurs-Thunder 'over' last night! Don't miss out on tonight's pay-if-it-wins-only selection!
Toronto (63-31 straight up, 49-45 against the spread) took a 3-2 series advantage with Wednesday’s Game 5 win to set up Friday’s close-out game at Miami in the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Raptors captured a 99-91 victory as five-point home favorites, pulling away in the final 1:32 with an 11-4 run.
Dwane Casey’s club led by as many as 20 late in the second quarter, but Miami went on a 10-0 run in the final 3:08 of the first half to pull to within 55-45 at intermission. Nevertheless, Toronto easily hooked up its betting supporters for first-quarter (-1.5) and first-half wagers (-2.5). The 100 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 94.5-point first-half total.
Miami (54-40 SU, 50-43-1 ATS) trailed by 15 when Terrence Ross made a driving layup to start the fourth quarter, but it quickly responded with a 7-0 run behind a pair of buckets from Joe Johnson and a 3-ball from rookie Josh Richardson out of the University of Tennessee.
Toronto’s lead ballooned to 13 on a 3-point play the hard way by DeMar DeRozan with 8:33 remaining. However, Richardson answered with back-to-back triples to put Miami back within striking distance. Down seven with 3:02 left, the Heat went on a 6-0 run thanks to consecutive baskets from Johnson and a pair of free throws from Dwyane Wade with 1:54 remaining.
DeRozan hit two free throws to push the lead back to three and then Miami’s Goran Dragic committed a costly turnover. For most of the playoffs, especially at crunch time, Toronto has had way-too-many possessions in which it fails to get any movement on offense and is left to force a low-percentage shot just before the shot-clock buzzer.
On Wednesday night, though, Kyle Lowry made things happen late in the shot clock. With a 90-87 advantage at the 52-second mark, the Villanova product drained an audacious stepback 3-pointer that inserted the dagger into the Heat’s Game 5 comeback hopes.
At this point, the outright victory was nearly sealed, but nothing was settled whatsoever in terms of the spread cover and the total. Ahead of the number by merely one point, Toronto allowed Wade to get a quick basket to make it 93-89 with 46 ticks left. But again, Lowry turned what appeared to be an ugly possession into gold when he penetrated late in the shot clock and buried a fadeaway jumper from the baseline.
After a timeout gave Miami the ball at halfcourt, Wade needed only two seconds to make a layup to cut the deficit to 95-91 with 21 seconds remaining. The Heat had to foul right away and DeRozan hit a pair of free throws to get the Raptors back ahead of the spread by one point. Also, the total, which closed at 189 at many books, was still on the line with the combined score at 188.
Wade missed a 3-pointer and Miami fouled again with nine seconds left. With gamblers on the total cringing over the result of the looming free throws, DeRozan knocked down both attempts from the stripe to make the ‘over’ a winner.
Game 2 also went ‘over’ the tally, but only because of overtime. Though Game 5 was at a rate to go ‘over’ for most of the night, the 177 combined points with 52 seconds remaining had ‘under’ supporters liking their chances. In other words, the ‘under’ could easily be 5-0 in the series so far. Instead, it’s just 3-2.
For Friday’s Game 5 at American Airlines Arena, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened Miami as a 4.5-point home ‘chalk’ with a total of 190.5 points. By Thursday night, however, the Heat were favored by four points and the total was adjusted to 189.5. Miami was -180 on the money line, leaving the Raptors at +160 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $160). The Heat was favored by 2.5 points for first-half wagers.
VegasInsider.com’s Chris David offered these thoughts on Game 5: “From a betting perspective, every game in this series has been a toss-up and there hasn’t been any wire-to-wire outcomes. I believe bettors are going to be in for another long night on Friday and you could argue for both sides and totals in Game 6. While Miami is banged up, I haven’t seen enough from Toronto to make a case for them to close out this series on the road. Since the Raptors came back into the playoff scene a couple of years ago, the team has built 3-2 leads twice and they failed to close out those series on the road. Toronto lost to Brooklyn in 2014 and in this year’s first round to Indiana and both losses were by double digits.”
David continued, “Looking at this year’s postseason, favorites have gone 49-13 straight up and they’ve covered 77 percent (38-24 ATS) of those games. Miami has helped that record, going 4-2 as a favorite in this year’s postseason but the kicker is that the Heat have covered all four of its victories. Instead of betting the Game 6 side or total on Friday, I would suggest taking Miami on the adjusted series price. The Heat are listed as high as a 3/1 underdog to win the next two games and if they can force a Game 7, then you can always get out of your bet with a hedge on Toronto.”
Both teams sustained key injuries in Game 5. Miami’s Luol Deng and Toronto’s DeMarre Carroll suffered wrist injuries, but MRI results for both players came back negative. They have both been upgraded to ‘probable,’ but whether either player will be effective is a major question mark.
Both teams are already missing their starting centers. Toronto’s Jonas Valanciunas had recorded four straight double-doubles before spraining his ankle in Game 3. He is out for the rest of the series. Miami’s Hassan Whiteside, who led the NBA with 3.7 blocked shots per game during the regular season, is ‘out’ for Game 6 with a knee injury. His status for a potential Game 7 back in Toronto remains in doubt.
Miami is 32-15 SU and 27-19 ATS at home, going 10-2 both SU and ATS in its last 12 at the Triple-A.
Toronto has posted a 25-20 SU record and a 24-21 ATS mark on the road this season. The Raptors are 2-3 both SU and ATS in five postseason road assignments so far.
The ‘under’ is on a 10-3 run in Toronto’s last 13 games. The Raptors have watched the ‘under’ go 48-45-1 overall, 26-19-1 in their road contests. They have seen the ‘under’ cash in eight consecutive road games.
The ‘under’ has cashed at an 8-2 clip in Miami’s last 10 outings. The Heat has seen the ‘under’ go 55-38-1 overall, 28-19 in its home contests.
Tip-off is scheduled for Friday night at 8:05 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**
-- I'm not so convinced like many seem to be that Tim Duncan is going to retire. But if he is, the greatest power forward in NBA history went out in style last night. He had struggled the entire series, scoring just 17 combined points in the first five games. But the 40-year-old Duncan was pivotal in the Spurs getting back to within spitting distance (11) after trailing by 24 at intermission. The Wake Forest product finished with 19 points and five rebounds and had a team-best plus-minus rating of +13.
-- OKC advanced to the Western Conference finals with a 113-99 win in a pick 'em affair. The 212 combined points soared 'over' the total that closed at 198.5. The tally moved up after being 195.5 early Thursday morning.
-- Kevin Durant was the catalyst for the Thunder in the deciding Game 6, scoring 37 points and grabbing nine rebounds. Russell Westbrook produced 28 points, 12 assists, three rebounds and a pair of steals. Steven Adams had a double-double with 15 points and 11 boards.
-- As of Friday morning, Sportsbook.ag had the Warriors listed as 7.5-point favorite for Game 1 vs. OKC. The total was 231.5 points.
-- I'm a few days late on this, but huge props to the Portland Trail Blazers. They may have lost to the Warriors in five games, but you won't ever watch a more competitive five-game series. Terry Stotts's team led for the majority of Games 2, 4 and 5 before getting outplayed at crunch time. The front office did a sensational job of re-tooling the roster after losing four starters, building around one of the NBA's best point guards in Damian Lillard. C.J. McCollum and Lillard compose the second-best backcourt in the league behind only the combination of Golden State's Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. The Blazers will be a major factor in the West next season.
-- I can't believe I'm writing (or even thinking) this. In fact, this notion had never even occurred to me until late in Game 5 of Golden St.'s come-from-behind home win over Portland earlier this week. And to be clear, I'm not stating it as fact by any means. But I'm starting to think that Curry might (maybe!) be entering the Michael Jordan Stratosphere of domination. Obviously, he has to win many more rings for this to even be a discussion, but that looks quite possible in the coming years. And if he can get his team to the Finals (going through the Durant-Westbrook combo) and then beat LeBron and the Cavs for a second straight year by ripping those teams up, he'll be well on his way while entering the prime of his career. Now obviously, Curry has to stay healthy, etc., etc. But if you don't think his performances, especially at winning time, in Games 4 and 5 against Portland were on a level of greatness comparable to MJ, then you just weren't paying attention. We'll get back to this thought process in the coming weeks (and years). It might prove to be an outrageous reach, or it might be legit. We shall see....
May 12, 2016
Editor's note: Brian Edwards owns an 18-11 record (62%, +6 units) in the NBA Playoffs since April 25. Even better, he's cashed 11 of his last 15 guaranteed plays, including an easy winner on the Spurs-Thunder 'over' last night! Don't miss out on tonight's pay-if-it-wins-only selection!
Toronto (63-31 straight up, 49-45 against the spread) took a 3-2 series advantage with Wednesday’s Game 5 win to set up Friday’s close-out game at Miami in the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Raptors captured a 99-91 victory as five-point home favorites, pulling away in the final 1:32 with an 11-4 run.
Dwane Casey’s club led by as many as 20 late in the second quarter, but Miami went on a 10-0 run in the final 3:08 of the first half to pull to within 55-45 at intermission. Nevertheless, Toronto easily hooked up its betting supporters for first-quarter (-1.5) and first-half wagers (-2.5). The 100 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 94.5-point first-half total.
Miami (54-40 SU, 50-43-1 ATS) trailed by 15 when Terrence Ross made a driving layup to start the fourth quarter, but it quickly responded with a 7-0 run behind a pair of buckets from Joe Johnson and a 3-ball from rookie Josh Richardson out of the University of Tennessee.
Toronto’s lead ballooned to 13 on a 3-point play the hard way by DeMar DeRozan with 8:33 remaining. However, Richardson answered with back-to-back triples to put Miami back within striking distance. Down seven with 3:02 left, the Heat went on a 6-0 run thanks to consecutive baskets from Johnson and a pair of free throws from Dwyane Wade with 1:54 remaining.
DeRozan hit two free throws to push the lead back to three and then Miami’s Goran Dragic committed a costly turnover. For most of the playoffs, especially at crunch time, Toronto has had way-too-many possessions in which it fails to get any movement on offense and is left to force a low-percentage shot just before the shot-clock buzzer.
On Wednesday night, though, Kyle Lowry made things happen late in the shot clock. With a 90-87 advantage at the 52-second mark, the Villanova product drained an audacious stepback 3-pointer that inserted the dagger into the Heat’s Game 5 comeback hopes.
At this point, the outright victory was nearly sealed, but nothing was settled whatsoever in terms of the spread cover and the total. Ahead of the number by merely one point, Toronto allowed Wade to get a quick basket to make it 93-89 with 46 ticks left. But again, Lowry turned what appeared to be an ugly possession into gold when he penetrated late in the shot clock and buried a fadeaway jumper from the baseline.
After a timeout gave Miami the ball at halfcourt, Wade needed only two seconds to make a layup to cut the deficit to 95-91 with 21 seconds remaining. The Heat had to foul right away and DeRozan hit a pair of free throws to get the Raptors back ahead of the spread by one point. Also, the total, which closed at 189 at many books, was still on the line with the combined score at 188.
Wade missed a 3-pointer and Miami fouled again with nine seconds left. With gamblers on the total cringing over the result of the looming free throws, DeRozan knocked down both attempts from the stripe to make the ‘over’ a winner.
Game 2 also went ‘over’ the tally, but only because of overtime. Though Game 5 was at a rate to go ‘over’ for most of the night, the 177 combined points with 52 seconds remaining had ‘under’ supporters liking their chances. In other words, the ‘under’ could easily be 5-0 in the series so far. Instead, it’s just 3-2.
For Friday’s Game 5 at American Airlines Arena, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened Miami as a 4.5-point home ‘chalk’ with a total of 190.5 points. By Thursday night, however, the Heat were favored by four points and the total was adjusted to 189.5. Miami was -180 on the money line, leaving the Raptors at +160 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $160). The Heat was favored by 2.5 points for first-half wagers.
VegasInsider.com’s Chris David offered these thoughts on Game 5: “From a betting perspective, every game in this series has been a toss-up and there hasn’t been any wire-to-wire outcomes. I believe bettors are going to be in for another long night on Friday and you could argue for both sides and totals in Game 6. While Miami is banged up, I haven’t seen enough from Toronto to make a case for them to close out this series on the road. Since the Raptors came back into the playoff scene a couple of years ago, the team has built 3-2 leads twice and they failed to close out those series on the road. Toronto lost to Brooklyn in 2014 and in this year’s first round to Indiana and both losses were by double digits.”
David continued, “Looking at this year’s postseason, favorites have gone 49-13 straight up and they’ve covered 77 percent (38-24 ATS) of those games. Miami has helped that record, going 4-2 as a favorite in this year’s postseason but the kicker is that the Heat have covered all four of its victories. Instead of betting the Game 6 side or total on Friday, I would suggest taking Miami on the adjusted series price. The Heat are listed as high as a 3/1 underdog to win the next two games and if they can force a Game 7, then you can always get out of your bet with a hedge on Toronto.”
Both teams sustained key injuries in Game 5. Miami’s Luol Deng and Toronto’s DeMarre Carroll suffered wrist injuries, but MRI results for both players came back negative. They have both been upgraded to ‘probable,’ but whether either player will be effective is a major question mark.
Both teams are already missing their starting centers. Toronto’s Jonas Valanciunas had recorded four straight double-doubles before spraining his ankle in Game 3. He is out for the rest of the series. Miami’s Hassan Whiteside, who led the NBA with 3.7 blocked shots per game during the regular season, is ‘out’ for Game 6 with a knee injury. His status for a potential Game 7 back in Toronto remains in doubt.
Miami is 32-15 SU and 27-19 ATS at home, going 10-2 both SU and ATS in its last 12 at the Triple-A.
Toronto has posted a 25-20 SU record and a 24-21 ATS mark on the road this season. The Raptors are 2-3 both SU and ATS in five postseason road assignments so far.
The ‘under’ is on a 10-3 run in Toronto’s last 13 games. The Raptors have watched the ‘under’ go 48-45-1 overall, 26-19-1 in their road contests. They have seen the ‘under’ cash in eight consecutive road games.
The ‘under’ has cashed at an 8-2 clip in Miami’s last 10 outings. The Heat has seen the ‘under’ go 55-38-1 overall, 28-19 in its home contests.
Tip-off is scheduled for Friday night at 8:05 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**
-- I'm not so convinced like many seem to be that Tim Duncan is going to retire. But if he is, the greatest power forward in NBA history went out in style last night. He had struggled the entire series, scoring just 17 combined points in the first five games. But the 40-year-old Duncan was pivotal in the Spurs getting back to within spitting distance (11) after trailing by 24 at intermission. The Wake Forest product finished with 19 points and five rebounds and had a team-best plus-minus rating of +13.
-- OKC advanced to the Western Conference finals with a 113-99 win in a pick 'em affair. The 212 combined points soared 'over' the total that closed at 198.5. The tally moved up after being 195.5 early Thursday morning.
-- Kevin Durant was the catalyst for the Thunder in the deciding Game 6, scoring 37 points and grabbing nine rebounds. Russell Westbrook produced 28 points, 12 assists, three rebounds and a pair of steals. Steven Adams had a double-double with 15 points and 11 boards.
-- As of Friday morning, Sportsbook.ag had the Warriors listed as 7.5-point favorite for Game 1 vs. OKC. The total was 231.5 points.
-- I'm a few days late on this, but huge props to the Portland Trail Blazers. They may have lost to the Warriors in five games, but you won't ever watch a more competitive five-game series. Terry Stotts's team led for the majority of Games 2, 4 and 5 before getting outplayed at crunch time. The front office did a sensational job of re-tooling the roster after losing four starters, building around one of the NBA's best point guards in Damian Lillard. C.J. McCollum and Lillard compose the second-best backcourt in the league behind only the combination of Golden State's Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. The Blazers will be a major factor in the West next season.
-- I can't believe I'm writing (or even thinking) this. In fact, this notion had never even occurred to me until late in Game 5 of Golden St.'s come-from-behind home win over Portland earlier this week. And to be clear, I'm not stating it as fact by any means. But I'm starting to think that Curry might (maybe!) be entering the Michael Jordan Stratosphere of domination. Obviously, he has to win many more rings for this to even be a discussion, but that looks quite possible in the coming years. And if he can get his team to the Finals (going through the Durant-Westbrook combo) and then beat LeBron and the Cavs for a second straight year by ripping those teams up, he'll be well on his way while entering the prime of his career. Now obviously, Curry has to stay healthy, etc., etc. But if you don't think his performances, especially at winning time, in Games 4 and 5 against Portland were on a level of greatness comparable to MJ, then you just weren't paying attention. We'll get back to this thought process in the coming weeks (and years). It might prove to be an outrageous reach, or it might be legit. We shall see....
