Thursday's Top Action
January 28, 2016
NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (14-5) at SYRACUSE ORANGE (13-8)
Carrier Dome – Syracuse, NY
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Syracuse -2.5, 141
Former Big East rivals Syracuse and Notre Dame tangle once again, as the No. 25 Fighting Irish look to win in the Carrier Dome against the Orange for the first time since 2007.
Coach Mike Brey’s Fighting Irish will be looking for some payback on the Orange’s home floor after being upset at home last season 65-60 (Notre Dame -8.5) as the No. 9 team in the nation to unranked Syracuse. Again, Notre Dame enters this game in the national rankings, but if they’re to return the favor against the Orange, the Fighting Irish will have to do it without leading scorer, G Demetrius Jackson. Jackson, who averaged 17.6 PPG and 5.3 APG until Saturday’s win over Boston College, injured his hamstring moments into that contest and didn’t record any points, rebounds, or assists.
The Irish do come in as winners of four straight (2-1-1 ATS) and are 3-1 SU (3-1 ATS) on the road this season, including a win at Duke on Feb 16th. Syracuse is 3-2 SU (4-1 ATS) since getting their hall of fame head coach, Jim Boeheim, back on the bench after his NCAA sanctions.
After dropping his first game back, at home to North Carolina, the Orange reeled off three straight wins which included a road win at Duke as well. Syracuse couldn’t pull off the road sweep of two nationally ranked teams, as they most recently fell at Virginia on Sunday, 73-65 (Syracuse +9.5). Syracuse has opened this season with only one conference home win (1-2 SU) over last place Boston College.
Historically, Syracuse is 14-6 SU (10-9-1 ATS) since 2001 against Notre Dame, with the two teams playing consistently as former Big East and current ACC rivals. Notre Dame is 3-13 SU (8-7-1 ATS) in the Carrier Dome dating back to 1996, and has never been a road favorite against Syracuse in that span. The total in this rivalry has been UNDER for six games straight now, dating back to 2010.
Thankfully Notre Dame was playing cellar-dweller, Boston College, when Jackson pulled up lame with his hamstring issues. The Fighting Irish easily dispatched of the Eagles, 76-49 (Notre Dame -19.5) on the strength of stifling defense (BC shot 28.6% FG) and impeccable free throw shooting (25-27 FT).
While it will be interesting to see how the normally efficient (1.17 Points per possession, 10th NCAA) Fighting Irish attack the vaunted Syracuse 2-3 Zone without their point guard, coach Brey’s teams have historically always been very careful with the ball and shot selection, regardless of personnel, and this year’s team is no different (9.2 TO/G, 2nd NCAA; 49.9% FG, 9th NCAA).
In Jackson’s absence, Brey turned to G Steve Vasturia (12.8 PPG, 3.3 APG, 50% FG) to run the point, and while not a pure point guard, Vasturia produced 16 points and four assists in Saturday’s win. More of an offensive load will also fall on double-double machine, F Zach Auguste (13.9 PPG, 10.1 RPG). During Notre Dame’s current four-game winning streak, Auguste is averaging 16.8 PPG and 10.8 RPG. Maybe most importantly, Auguste has stayed on the court for 30+ minutes in all four wins.
F Bonzie Colson (12.6 PPG, 7 RPG) is the x-factor of this Notre Dame team, and could be just the mismatch that Syracuse loathes in the middle of their zone. Colson has the strength of a power forward, the quickness of a guard, and doesn’t shy away from contact. Catching the ball in the middle of the zone and given a step for a head full of steam to the basket could be bad news for the Orange trying to contain Colson on Thursday, as he won’t shy away from big games (31 points at Duke).
F V.J. Beachem (11 PPG, 42% 3PT) would normally be a big key against a team like Syracuse, but coach Brey’s sharpshooter has really struggled lately (6 PPG, 2-12 3PT over his last four games).
Syracuse catches a slight break, avoiding Jackson in this game, but given how poorly they’ve defended the interior against the likes of teams with only one paint presence -- Duke’s Marshall Plumlee and Virginia’s Anthony Gill (35 points, 25 rebounds, 14-22 FG combined) -- taking on Auguste and Colson together could yield frightening results on the glass.
The lone inside force for Syracuse is F Tyler Roberson (10 PPG, 9 RPG), he of 14 points and 20 rebounds in the win over Duke two Mondays ago. Boeheim can’t ask that of Roberson every game and, predictably, Roberson was human in the loss to Virginia on Sunday (6 points, 7 rebounds, 4 fouls). Syracuse will have to continue their consistency beyond the arc (40% 3PT or better in last three games) if they’re to defeat the Fighting Irish, who are very suspect defending the arc (39.1% 3PT allowed, 330th NCAA).
It was G Trevor Cooney (13.7 PPG, 2.8 3PM) who sank Notre Dame in South Bend last season, as Cooney hit two back-breaking threes to put Syracuse ahead to stay down the stretch. Cooney was 10-20 from three on the road in wins over Wake Forest and Duke just 10 days ago before cooling for a 2-8 performance at Virginia. In addition to Cooney, G Michael Gbinije (17.4 PPG, 4.5 APG) and G Malachi Richardson (13.4 PPG) both average more than two threes per game, as while Syracuse only averages 70.4 PPG (211th NCAA), they get 37.9% of their points from threes (17th NCAA).
In the Orange’s last three games, they’ve gotten a staggering 48.1% of their total points from shots beyond the arc. While it was in a loss, the freshman Richardson really looks to be coming into his own, as he led Syracuse with 23 points (6-10 3PT) on Sunday at Virginia against their vaunted “pack line” defense that usually stifles perimeter threats.
OREGON DUCKS (16-4) at ARIZONA WILDCATS (16-4)
McKale Center – Tuscon, Arizona
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Arizona -7.5, 152
Top 25 Pac-12 rivals meet as No. 23 Oregon visits Tucson hoping to avenge three lopsided defeats against Arizona last season.
The No. 18 Wildcats will have had four days to digest their 74-73 (Arizona -2.5) loss to undermanned California last Saturday. Thankfully, the Wildcats return home to the McKale Center where they’re 11-0 SU (7-4 ATS).
Saturday’s defeat was Arizona’s first loss without injured freshman G Allonzo Trier (14.8 PPG) who was really coming into his own before breaking his hand in the Wildcats’ epic 103-101 loss against USC on Jan. 9th. Trier is doubtful for the game Thursday night. Without Trier, Arizona held serve to defeat Washington and Washington State, scoring 90+ points in each game, while also going to Palo Alto and beating Stanford on the road, 71-57. Arizona went 3-0 ATS in that span before the loss at Cal on Saturday.
Oregon is 1-2 SU (1-2 ATS) on the road in Pac-12 play, their lone victory coming against Utah on January 14th. The Ducks lost at Colorado, 91-87 (PK) on January 17th before reeling off two home victories last week against USC (89-81, Oregon -5) and UCLA (86-72, Oregon -6.5) respectively.
Oregon comes into this matchup with Arizona having been pasted three times last season by the Wildcats by an average defeat of 26.6 points. Oregon is 4-16 SU (10-10 ATS) when facing off against Arizona away from Eugene. The total when Oregon plays Arizona has gone UNDER in six of the last seven meetings.
Coach Dana Altman’s Ducks come into this contest averaging 76.8 PPG against Division 1 opponents (83rd NCAA), on the strength of turning their defense into offense (6.1 BPG, 7th NCAA; 7.6 SPG, 41st NCAA vs D1 opponents). Oregon excels getting into the paint, shooting 52.1% inside the arc (57th NCAA vs D1 opponents), as unsurprisingly that plays into the strength of their three best players, F Dillon Brooks (16.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG), F Chris Boucher (12.3 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 3.3 BPG), and F Elgin Cook (13.5 PPG).
The Ducks will need improved play from freshman G Tyler Dorsey (13.4 PPG, 45% 3PT) if they’re to reverse their downward recent trend against the Wildcats, as he’s their key perimeter threat but only has 14 points over his last two games. Brooks has emerged as the leader of Altman’s offense as of late, upping his scoring to 18.7 PPG (57% FG) over his last three games. Steady sophomore G Casey Benson (6.1 PPG, 3.3 APG) doesn’t fill the box score, but he plays 27.9 minutes per game and is 9-16 3PT over his last five games.
Senior F Dwayne Benjamin (8.7 PPG) is always liable to have a big game, but his inconsistency makes those games impossible to predict. After going for 26 points (6-11 3PT) as Oregon split with Colorado and USC, Benjamin slipped back into anonymity in the win over UCLA (4 points in 14 minutes).
Coach Sean Miller has done a masterful job mixing personnel this season to deal with injuries, first to C Kaleb Tarczewski (10.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG) and now to Trier. Arizona isn’t the top 10 powerhouse they were last year, oozing with NBA talent, but Miller’s work with this squad shouldn’t go unnoticed.
Speaking of the big man, since Tarczewski has returned, he’s played the best basketball of his career. His last five games speak for themselves, with averages of 13 points, 10.4 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game. Tarczewski has six straight games with double-figure scoring.
F Ryan Anderson (14.9 PPG, 10 RPG) is the steady leader of the Wildcats, as the Boston College transfer is seemingly a lock to stuff the box score for numbers always consistently close to his season average. Anderson and Tarczewski combine to lead an offense that shoots 49.3% FG versus D1 opponents (9th NCAA). That said, without Trier in the lineup, Anderson hasn’t looked for his shot more often, as he hasn’t attempted more than 10 FG in a game in 2016, a trend that may continue against Oregon’s stingy defense in the paint.
Picking up the slack in Trier’s scoring absence has been G Kadeem Allen (9.0 PPG, 3.7 APG) who’s averaged 11.3 PPG over his last eight games. G Gabe York (13.9 PPG, 44% 3PT) has been as steady in the backcourt as Anderson has been up front for Miller’s Wildcats, but while the points have been there, York’s efficiency has been waning with more shots to go around (38% FG over his last four games).
G Parker Jackson-Cartwright (4.8 PPG, 3.9 APG) has soaked up many of Trier’s extra minutes and has averaged 6.8 APG over his last four games, providing Miller with a pure point guard option when he’s on the floor.
