Saturday's Night Tip Sheet
January 22, 2016
**Maryland at Michigan State**
-- Michigan State (16-4 straight up, 10-9 against the spread) will try to avoid an unfathomable four-game losing streak Saturday night when it takes on Maryland at Breslin Center. As of Friday afternoon, one offshore shop had opened the Spartans as 3.5-point favorites.
-- Tom Izzo’s team lost its third consecutive game Wednesday at home when Nebraska came into East Lansing and won a 72-71 decision as a 14-point road underdog. In his postgame presser, Izzo described his team’s situation as a “mid-life crisis.” Fortunately for the Spartans, they are accustomed to Izzo fixing flaws and getting his team ready to play its best basketball in March.
-- Denzel Valentine produced 24 points, six assists and six rebounds in the losing effort against the Cornhuskers. Eron Harris had 14 points in 22 minutes of playing time, draining all four of his attempts from 3-point range. The Spartans hit 11-of-18 shots (61.1%) from downtown and enjoyed the rebounding advantage (35-31). However, just as Izzo noted in his postgame presser, Nebraska shot at a 50.0 percent clip (29-of-58) from the field.
-- Since returning from an injury that kept him out for four games, Valentine is scoring at a 17.8 points-per-game clip. For the season, the senior slasher is averaging 18.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, 6.6 assists and 1.1 steals per game.
-- Maryland (17-2 SU, 9-10 ATS) is one-half game back of the Big Ten co-leaders, Indiana and Iowa, both of whom remain undefeated in league play. The Terrapins improved to 6-1 in Big Ten action with Tuesday’s 62-56 win over Northwestern in overtime. They failed to cover the number as 12-point home ‘chalk.’ Melo Trimble scored 18 points and dished out six assists, while Robert Carter tallied 10 points, 14 rebounds, three blocked shots, two assists and one steal. Diamond Stone was also in double figures with 11 points in only 15 minutes of playing time.
-- Like Valentine, Trimble is a likely All-American selection. The sophomore guard is averaging 13.9 points, 5.7 assists and 1.4 steals per game. Stone is averaging 13.5 points and 5.5 rebounds per game, while Carter is scoring at a 13.2 PPG clip and pulling down a team-best 7.0 RPG.
-- Michigan State has won eight of its 10 home games, posting a 5-4 spread record.
-- If the line holds and Maryland is an underdog, it’ll be just its second such spot this year. The Terps lost 89-81 at North Carolina as 7.5-point ‘dogs.
-- Michigan State is No. 30 in the RPI Rankings, going 4-2 against the Top 50 and 6-3 versus the Top 100. The Spartans’ top four wins including home victories over Florida and Louisville, in addition to neutral-court scalps of Kansas and Providence.
-- Maryland is No. 9 in the RPI Rankings, but it is winless in a pair of games against Top-50 opponents. The Terps lost 89-81 at North Carolina and 70-67 at Michigan. They have five Top-100 wins, including a neutral-floor triumph over UConn.
-- The ‘under’ is 11-8 overall for Michigan State, 6-3 in its home games.
-- Totals have been an overall wash for Maryland (9-9), but it has seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 in its four true road assignments. The ‘under’ has cashed at a 6-2 clip for the Terps in their last eight outings.
-- ESPN will have the broadcast at 6:30 p.m. Eastern.
**Arizona at California**
-- Arizona (16-3 SU, 11-8 ATS) is tied for second place in the Pac-12 with Southern Cal and Oregon, with each team one game back of league-leading Washington. The Wildcats are 4-2 in conference action, while the Golden Bears are 3-3 in league play. As of Friday afternoon, one offshore book had UA favored by two points.
-- Since losing back-to-back games at UCLA and at USC two weeks ago, Sean Miller’s team has won three in a row both SU and ATS. Arizona thumped Stanford 71-57 as a 5.5-point road favorite Thursday night in Palo Alto. Gabe York hit four treys and finished with a game-high 19 points. Ryan Anderson added 18 points and eight rebounds, making all seven of his shots from the floor and 4-of-5 at the charity stripe. The Wildcats destroyed the Cardinal on the glass with a 41-25 rebounding advantage.
-- Anderson is UA’s leading scorer (15.0 PPG) who averages a double-double (10.1 RPG) and is shooting at a 57.1 percent clip from the field. Anderson, a transfer from Boston College, is draining 40.0 percent of his launches from 3-point range.
-- Arizona freshman guard Allonzo Trier is averaging 14.8 PPG, while York is scoring at a 13.7 PPG clip. Senior center Kaleb Tarczewski is averaging 10.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per game.
-- Arizona is the best rebounding team in the Pac-12 and ranks eighth in the country in rebounding margin (11.3).
-- California (13-6 SU, 9-10 ATS) is undefeated in 12 home games with a 7-5 spread record. However, Cuonzo Martin’s squad won’t have its leader in scoring and assists, as Tyrone Wallace (14.5 PPG, 4.5 APG) will miss his second straight game with a broken bone in his hand. Wallace isn’t expected to return until late February at the earliest.
-- Without Wallace for the first time all year, California snapped a three-game losing streak by knocking off Arizona St. 75-70 as a seven-point home favorite Thursday night. Ivan Rabb was the catalyst with 20 points, eight rebounds, six assists and three blocked shots. Jaylen Brown added 17 points despite fouling out and playing only 20 minutes due to foul trouble. Jabari Bird contributed 10 points and eight rebounds, while Sam Singer dished out eight assists and pulled down six boards. Jordan Matthews was also in double figures with 10 points.
-- Martin pulled a monster recruiting class last year, hauling in a pair of consensus Top-10 players in Brown and Rabb. Both have been ‘as advertised’ to date. Brown is averaging 14.9 points and 5.7 rebounds per game, while Rabb is averaging 12.7 points and 8.6 rebounds per game. Rabb, the 6’10” Oakland product from Bishop O’Dowd High School, has a team-best 27 blocked shots and is making 64.6 percent of his shots from the field.
-- Arizona is No. 26 in the RPI Rankings, going 2-3 versus the Top 50 and 6-3 against the Top 100. The Wildcats own road wins at Arizona St., at Stanford and at Gonzaga. They have a pair of wins over a likely NCAA Tournament team in Boise St. and blasted Washington by 32 points at home.
-- Cal is No. 48 in the RPI, compiling a 4-3 record against the Top 50 and a 5-5 mark versus the Top 100. The Golden Bears owns quality victories at home over Saint Mary’s, Davidson, Colorado, Utah and ASU. There was no shame in a 63-62 loss at Virginia and a 68-65 setback at Oregon.
-- Arizona has won four in a row both SU and ATS in this rivalry, including a 73-50 win at Cal on Jan. 24 of last season. The Wildcats beat the Golden Bears three times last year by margins of 23, 39 and 22 points.
-- The ‘over’ is 13-6 overall for the Wildcats after cashing in seven of their last eight contests.
-- The ‘under’ is 10-9 overall for the Golden Bears, 7-5 in their home games. However, they have seen the ‘over’ cash in three straight outings.
-- The ‘over’ has hit at a 20-8 clip in the last 28 head-to-head meetings between these long-time conference rivals.
-- Tip-off in Berkeley is slated for 8:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-- Gonzaga is in legit danger of perhaps missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since Mark Few took over the program in 2000. The Bulldogs dropped a 70-67 decision Thursday night at Saint Mary’s, but they did cover the number as five-point underdogs. Few’s team played its standard non-conference schedule featuring heavyweights like Washington, Arizona, UCLA, Texas A&M, UConn and Tennessee. But the Bulldogs are 0-4 against the RPI Top 50 and lost at home to BYU. We should note that Gonzaga’s five losses have come by just 15 combined points. The ‘Zags lost by one to the Aggies and the Cougars.
-- Since covering the spread in its first 12 games, Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the spread in three consecutive games.
-- If Monmouth (14-5 SU) doesn’t win its conference tournament, it is going to be an interesting case for the selection committee. The Hawks have quality wins galore, including road wins over teams in the Big Ten, Big East and Pac-12. They beat USC and Notre Dame on neutral courts, won by double digits at Georgetown and knocked off UCLA at Pauley Pavilion in the season opener. But Monmouth lost at Manhattan on Thursday night and also has defeats at Canisius and at Army.
-- Texas will be looking to pull a second straight upset on the road Saturday when it goes to Lawrence for a 2:00 p.m. Eastern tip. The Longhorns went into Morgantown on Wednesday night and beat West Virginia by a 56-49 count as 12-point underdogs. They’ll be significant ‘dogs again at Kansas.
-- Fresh off its fourth consecutive victory in Big Ten play, Nebraska will attempt to cover the number for the sixth straight time when it hosts Michigan on ESPN2 at 2:00 p.m. Eastern.
-- Florida has won back-to-back games since losing at heartbreaker at Texas A&M. The Gators will collide with Auburn on Saturday night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network. Bruce Pearl’s team brings plenty of confidence to the O-Dome after scoring consecutive home wins over Kentucky and Alabama.
-- Ole Miss might be without three starters for Saturday’s game at Mississippi State. Stefan Moody, the SEC’s leading scorer, is ‘questionable’ due to a hamstring strain.
-- If you don’t get the Pac-12 Network (Arizona State at Stanford at 11:00 p.m.), the last televised game on the board will be UNLV at Nevada. This game will tip at 10:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU. The Rebels are unbeaten in three games since firing head coach Dave Rice.
-- Can you name the mascot of the nation’s best ATS team? If you can, that’s impressive. If you can’t, it’s the IUPU-Ft. Wayne Mastodons, who are 14-2 versus the number. They host IUPUI at 7:00 p.m. Easter on Saturday night.
