Tuesday's Bowl Action
December 19, 2016
Boca Raton Bowl (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Memphis Tigers vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Western Kentucky (-6.5); Total set at 81
The 2016 Bowl Season got off to a great start on Saturday as my two free picks were able to sweep the board. Those of you that weren't shy about putting a ML bet on San Diego State even added to that tally and now that the first official Bowl Week has arrived, I'm looking to keep that momentum rolling. Tuesday's game is the Boca Raton Bowl between Memphis and Western Kentucky where we should see plenty of points based on the total alone.
Western Kentucky was an offensive juggernaut in Conference USA scoring 50 or more points in six of their final nine games and dominating opponents along the way. The Hilltoppers were able to avenge their lone conference loss to Louisiana Tech during the year by beating them in the Conference USA Title game (58-44) and all of that success helped HC Jeff Brohm move onto bigger things as he accepted the same position at Purdue earlier this month.
Purdue is hoping that Brohm's brilliant offensive mind can help turn their program around in the Big 10, but for right now you've got to wonder how his absence on the Western Kentucky sideline will affect that team. Coaches moving on from smaller programs after a successful year is a harsh reality in CFB at this time of year and it's the Hilltoppers that have to deal with it this time around.
Memphis is known for their offensive abilities as well although they weren't able to reach the same heights that Western Kentucky did this year. But the Tigers did play tougher competition with ranked foes like Temple, Navy, and Houston on their resume, and Memphis' 2-1 SU (1-2 ATS) record in those games speaks a bit to how well they should perform in this Bowl game. Obviously the #1 goal for the Tigers here is figuring out ways to slow down the Hilltoppers attack, but having a few weeks to prepare a plan of attack in that regard doesn't hurt.
Early action on the Boca Raton Bowl has seen Western Kentucky and their offense get plenty of support as this spread has been bet up to it's current number after opening up at -5.5. Offensive football teams tend to get plenty of support during Bowl season, but those backing Western Kentucky here will be quick to point out that their defense was tremendous down the stretch as well, holding three of their last five opponents to 7 points or less.
Yet, as I mentioned before, the competition level in Conference USA isn't quite what it is elsewhere (Western Kentucky is 0-4 ATS in last four non-conference games) – even in the AAC where Memphis resides – and this game could very well end up being one of those shootout-type games where the team with the ball last wins.
But the overriding factor for me making a play here is the Brohm absence. With coaches moving on being a regular occurrence this time of year, it's those teams that have been “abandoned” by their HC that you typically want to play against. Collegiate athletes get sold and play at a program in large part to the sales pitches those same coaches make during recruiting trips and these young, impressionable adults can't help but feel disappointed when those same coaches go back on their original message and become about themselves when the right opportunity comes up.
We saw this play out in spades during the Las Vegas Bowl when Houston played their sloppiest, worst game of the year as the motivation simply wasn't present. That worked out well for us being on the other side of that contest, and that's the angle I'm taking here by playing on Memphis and grabbing the points.
The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Conference USA opponents and have a 18-7-1 ATS run going against non-conference foes from any area. Memphis has all the talent to keep up with Western Kentucky on the scoreboard should that be the case, and without Brohm at the helm directing the Hilltoppers offense, it's tough to see them operating as efficiently or as successfully here.
Best Bet: Take Memphis +6.5
