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Cards travel to D.C.


April 21, 2015




ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (8-3) at WASHINGTON NATIONALS (6-7)


First pitch: Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Washington -115, St. Louis +105, Total: 7


Two of the National League’s elite clubs, the St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals, meet in the nation’s capitol this Tuesday night.


The Cardinals are having another solid start to a season and come into this game with wins in each of their past five games. In that time they have outscored opponents 21-6 while holding opposing offenses at two or fewer runs in each victory. They continued with their great play in a 2-1 win on Sunday which finished off a sweep of the Reds. St. Louis had just four hits in the win and took advantage of them with a solo homer off the bat of 3B Matt Carpenter and a double from OF Jon Jay; which led to a run-scoring sacrifice fly. Carpenter (.400) had a total of two hits in the game and added to his tremendous start to the campaign over the course of the Cincinnati series, going 6-for-12 with three runs, a homer and three RBIs and now has multiple hits in each of his last seven games.


The Nationals began the season as one of the favorites to win the World Series but haven’t exactly lived up to the expectations just yet with a loss in three of their first four series’. They have started to come around in the last week, though, as they finished off their series with Boston with a 10-5 win and proceeded to beat the Phillies three times in four contests. They scored 19 runs in the four contests and capped off the series win with a 4-1 win on Sunday where they tallied nine hits and were 3-for-10 with RISP. SS Ian Desmond (.314) has been the hottest hitter for this group and has a hit in each of his last six games, including going 9-for-19 with four runs and a double against the Reds.


The pitching matchup should be a good one as RHP Lance Lynn (1-1, 1.64 ERA) of the Cardinals goes up against LHP Gio Gonzalez (1-1, 5.11 ERA) of the host Nationals. St. Louis has absolutely destroyed Washington in the past two years, going 11-2 against them with each of the losses coming on the road (5-2). They won the last four contests against the Nationals, outscoring them 13-5 in that time as Washington failed to hit a ball out of the park. Some trends to watch include that the Cardinals are 51-22 (.699) after six consecutive games against division rivals since the start of the 2013 season as the Nationals have gone 30-10 (.750) when playing with a day off in the same timeframe. The injury report has OFs Randal Grichuk (Back) and Thomas Pham (Quadriceps) out for St. Louis as Washington has SS Yunel Escobar (Groin) day-to-day and 2B Anthony Rendon (Knee) still out.


Lynn has been a tremendous contributor to this great rotation over the past few years and has tallied double-digit wins in each of the last five seasons, totaling a record of 73-47 (.608) in that time. He has always done a great job at keeping the ball in the park with a 0.66 HR/9 mark in his career as he has the ability to strike out a ton of batters. So far on the year he has shown impeccable control (1.6 BB/9) while striking out 13 batters in 11 innings and has not allowed a HR just yet. Lynn has been great when meeting with Washington, going 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA (0.90 WHIP) and was nearly flawless (8 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 8 K) in his last outing against them. He has had some issues against 2B Danny Espinosa in the past, as he is 3-for-8 with two HRs and four RBIs and is joined by the positive play of SS Ian Desmond (3-for-9, 1 double, 2 RBI).


On the other hand, OFs Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman have combined to go a meager 1-for-13 with a solo homer against him. The bullpen for St. Louis has gone 1-1 with a 1.88 ERA (1.19 WHIP) and has successfully saved 6-of-7 contests. Trevor Rosenthal (1.59 ERA, 4 saves) has given up just two hits with eight strikeouts in 5.2 frames and is a perfect 4-for-4 in save chances.


Gonzalez has seen his performance decline in each of his first three seasons since joining the Nationals and was just 10-10 last year as he still performed well with his strikeouts (9.2 K/9) and homers allowed (0.57 HR/9). His 2015 campaign hasn’t started off too great with eight runs allowed (7 ER) in his first two starts (12.1 IP) as he has already walked six batters. Gonzalez has done well in his meetings with the Cardinals, posting a 2-1 record (3-2 record) behind a 2.18 ERA (1.09 WHIP) and has given up a mere three runs on ten hits over his last two starts (14 IP).


The St. Louis batters have not done well in their time against Gonzalez, combining to go a mere 20-for-102 (.196) as a team with 25 strikeouts, but OF Jon Jay (3-for-6) and C Yadier Molina (3-for-9, 2 doubles) are a few of the players who have actually done a solid job against the lefty. On the other hand, OF Jason Heyward (6-for-25, 1 double, 4 RBIs), SS Jhonny Peralta (3-for-16, 1 double, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 4 K) and 3B Matt Carpenter (1-for-6) have really struggled. The relievers for Washington have combined to go 1-2 with a 2.27 ERA (1.12 WHIP) and are successful in just 4-of-8 save chances. Drew Storen (1.80 ERA, 4 saves) has been successful in his four save opportunities while owning a 5:2 K/BB ratio in five innings of work
 

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Weekly Betting Notes


April 20, 2015




As we march into the latter portion of April with two full weeks in the books now, some teams have already begun to make their move towards cementing legitimacy, while others are hurriedly seeking answers in trying to dig out of slumps they might currently be mired in. Either way, it was another notable seven days of baseball this past week, so let’s review some of it, and take a look at the week ahead.

-- Mega prospect Kris Bryant is now up for the Cubs after debuting on Friday, and despite an 0-for-4, three-strikeout performance in his much-anticipated first game, the 23-year-old third baseman bounced back over the weekend by going 3-for-6 with three walks one RBI. Some people were worried that Chicago might be a little erratic out of the gate, due to the on-going controversy of leaving Bryant in the minor leagues to begin the season despite the fact that he was the best hitter in spring training, but instead, the Cubs managed to play well, and now have their future face of the franchise up to help continue their surge. They’ve been getting a balanced effort on both sides of the ball, led by Jorge Soler on offense and Jake Arrieta pacing the pitching staff. Interestingly, Jon Lester has been off thus far, so when he inevitably gets going, that can only provide a considerable boost for Chicago. I detailed them as one of my sure-to-improve teams of 2015, and they certainly look like they’ll be contending all-year long. With Bryant now in the picture, a hot run could be on the horizon, and have an interesting division showdown this week coming up against the Pirates.

-- Another week, another impressive showing by the AL Central-resident Tigers and Royals, who continue to engage in one of the more emerging rivalries in sports right now. Detroit is 10-2 after taking another series, this time from the White Sox, while Kansas City is coming off an impressive series victory over the Athletics to move to 9-3. With those records, both teams own the top two marks in the American League entering the third week. And it’s all the more impressive when you consider how a couple of other clubs in the division, the White Sox and Indians, were expected to be solid and contend this year, but are currently stuck under .500, and even below the Twins. The Tigers and Royals are also each 7-5 towards the over in the early going.

-- The Giants lost another series over the weekend -- this time at home to the team with the worst record in baseball last year, Arizona -- and the defending World Series champions now find themselves in last place in the NL West with a 4-10 record. It shouldn’t be that surprising, as anyone who religiously follows baseball knows that despite winning the title last year, the Giants weren’t the best team, and combined with the injuries they’ve been dealing with and the offseason departure of Pablo Sandoval, a regression was more so expected than anything else. The fact that they’ve spiraled down so quickly, though, is definitely intriguing. For bettors debating whether or not to tail San Francisco, with hope they can suddenly get back on track since they’re the champs, that probably wouldn’t be so wise, as this looks like something that can take some time before the Giants are able to right the ship. Their offense and pitching have been inconsistent, and until there’s some normalcy there, it’s probably best to avoid taking them unless you find the right spot.

-- With a three-game sweep of Tampa Bay, the Yankees are suddenly looking hot, having now soared back to the .500 mark. They’re a team definitely worth monitoring from a betting standpoint, as we’ve seen them propel on long runs before. At the very least, they should definitely be on everyone’s radar as far as over/unders go, as their three-game series with the Rays provided three more overs, bringing their record to an MLB-best 10-2 in over betting. With so much ammo in their lineup, featuring numerous guys capable of doing considerable damage in any given at-bat, maybe this isn’t such a surprise, especially with Alex Rodriguez looking a bit like his old self. They should continue to make some noise in the coming weeks, although it’s hard to see their stud starting pitchers Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda continue to contribute towards overs. Tanaka is coming off his finest outing in awhile on Saturday, while Pineda always has the potential to dominate any given lineup when he toes the rubber.

-- The Nationals impressively responded to their first-week struggles pretty quickly, and coming off a series in which they took three of four from Philadelphia over the weekend, it appears they’re back in form. However, they’re really going to have to work hard if they want to live up to their -500 NL East-winning odds, considering they’re still looking up at the ascending Mets and Braves. I said it a hundred times that New York was for real this season so their incredible start doesn’t surprise me, but Atlanta being 8-4 when they’re supposed to be in a “lost” year certainly does. As a result, we could have ourselves a very compelling three-way race for division supremacy that plays out very closely the rest of the year. Meanwhile, the Marlins have some issues that need to be corrected right away or they’ll be in danger of digging themselves too deep a hole, given how their division residents above them are performing. Their offense just hasn’t gotten going yet, and their rotation has been too inconsistent. They could be a team to fade, just as I suggested for their series loss to the Mets this past weekend.

Upcoming Series to Watch

New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers

As already mentioned, the Yankees are suddenly hot after an impressive sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend, and now they’ll really be tested against a team that actually hasn’t even cooled off yet, that of course being the 10-2 Detroit Tigers. The Tigers have been doing it on both sides of the ball, as evident in the fact that their +33 run differential is the best in baseball. Remarkably, they’re tied for the league-lead in runs scored (68), and if not for the Cardinals, their 35 runs given up would be the lowest of any team.

It will be an interesting measuring stick for both squads -- one seeking to see if their current win streak is legit enough to push them past the class of the American League; the other seeking to see if their MLB-best ways can continue through at least one more series against a quality team. The series commences tonight as the ESPN Monday Night Baseball game, with Alfredo Simon squaring off against C.C. Sabathia. While this might look like an advantage in favor of Simon at first glance, Sabathia is coming off a solid seven-inning start in Baltimore last week, and has actually looked good this year after missing most of 2014. Through two starts, he’s compiled an astounding 15/1 K/BB ratio in 12.2 innings, which could be a strong sign of things to come.

Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

This isn’t just because I’m a Rangers fan but the AL West is my favorite division in all of baseball right now. Everybody is bunched together within 1.5 games of the division lead, and no team is currently over .500 after the season’s opening two weeks. On top of that, it’s the unlikely Astros who find themselves in first place under new manager A.J. Hinch. When will somebody begin to break from the pack?

A run for the division crown could begin to formulate right here, as two of the teams expected to duke it out for AL West, the Angels and Athletics, are set to meet for the first time this year, in a four-game series. Ironically, despite having one of the best home records a year ago, Anaheim enters this one being 0-3 at Angel Stadium, which was the result of a three-game sweep at the hands of the Royals. The A’s, meanwhile, have the league’s second best run differential at +24, and have looked good early on despite being 6-7. Only one of those teams will ascend over .500 when this set is over, making it as crucial as an April series could be. Rookie Kendall Graveman takes the ball for Oakland in game one against sophomore Matt Shoemaker.

Team to Watch

I’ve already wrote a lot about the Mets this year, dubbing them my main breakout team of 2015 coming into the campaign (And assuring you that Over 82½ Wins was the best Win Total on the board), and detailed them further in my “Fearless Prediction” from my Weekend Primer article this past week, stressing they would continue their dominant ways with a series win over the Marlins. They ended up sweeping that four-game set at Citi Field to extend their current win streak to eight, and now enter the third week of the season with the best record in the National League.

Simply put, everything is clicking for New York right now and everyone should be taking notice. This is no fluke, nor any sort of aberration. I actually had the Mets making the playoffs this season for the first time since 2006, and based on their marvelous start, it’s looking very promising that a berth in the postseason will indeed occur. It was already a given that their starting pitching would be outstanding, and that’s been exactly the case, as Matt Harvey and reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom have led the way. deGrom, actually, has one of the best ERAs in baseball at 0.93, and Bartolo Colon and Jon Niese have also been very good. In addition, the bullpen’s been holding their end, too, even with closer Jenrry Mejia out via suspension.

The key for the Mets’ early success, though, might be related to their offense. Even with David Wright landing on the disabled list, the Mets are proving that their lineup is legit for the first time in years, getting consistent production from their bats and timely hitting in the process. Lucas Duda and Michael Cuddyer continue to solidify themselves as formidable middle-of-the-order sluggers, both combining for 15 RBI, while Travis d’Arnaud has been living up to my expectations of being one of the better offensive catchers in the league. Surprisingly, they’ve also received some notable contributions from Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada at shortstop, which was considered the Mets’ biggest weakness entering ’15.

Another interesting note concerning the organization from Flushing is that despite being one of top teams for unders throughout the past handful of years, the Mets have suddenly become one of the best over clubs, currently sitting at 8-4 for over bets on the year, including a shocking 3-0 when Harvey toes the rubber. Due to their strong and steady starting pitching, I do not expect this trend to continue at such a high clip. But as far as tailing the Mets through moneyline and runline bets, that’s probably a pretty good idea at this point in time, although Vegas will surely begin to start listing them as heavier favorites.

Fearless Prediction

-- The Rockies, having experienced a soaring start, were humbled in Los Angeles this weekend after getting swept by the Dodgers, and although they’re returning home where they’re considerably better, I think they’ll drop their upcoming series to the Padres. As I’ve said all along, the NL West race is going to come down to a very closely-contested battle between the Padres and Dodgers, and with LA riding a seven-game winning streak into first, I think San Diego will continue to win on their own accord as well, thus keeping up with their division rivals. The Padres already have nearly as many homers this year (12) as they did through the entire first two months of last season (15), which is obviously no coincidence. Their offense is much, much improved from years’ past, and they’ll continue to swing the lumber effectively, especially being at Coors Field. Don’t be afraid to take them for the series, especially since you’ll probably be getting plus odds.
 

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Wild Wild West


April 20, 2015




NBA Playoffs: The Best of the West

Start your engines! The NBA playoffs have started, time for endless full court action every night as the league crowns another champion. Let's take a look at the best of the West, the conference that has won 11 of the last 16 NBA titles.

Warriors: The team no one wants to play! Golden State’s front office took some heat the last few years for trading for Andruw Bogut (“we needed some height”) and for jettisoning a winning coach a year ago. Well hats off, because this team has been a juggernaut under first-year coach Steve Kerr, tops in the NBA in field goal shooting defense, tops in scoring and assists.


Klay Thompson (21.5 ppg) and Stephen Curry (23 ppg) provide the offense from outside, but a slew of talent role players give Golden State incredible depth and flexibility. Bogut, David Lee and Draymond Green provide frontcourt muscle, while Andre Iguodala and Leandro Barbosa excel off the bench.

Spurs: The defending champs paced themselves this season, battling injuries in the first half of the season, but they’ve been healthy and on a roll at the right time. That’s similar to what happened a year ago, too, with a 19-game win streak that wrapped up everything in the West. The Spurs play great defense under Gregg Popovich, plus use an awesome array of depth to blitz opponents, ranking 11th in the NBA in scoring, 5th in assists and Top 10 in points allowed.


San Antonio still has the Big Three of 38-year old Tim Duncan (14 ppg, 7 rpg), 37-year old Manu Ginobili (11 ppg) and 32-year old Tony Parker (14.8 ppg). Popovich has done a great job in limiting the minutes of the Big 3. The Spurs have won 50 or more games in an astonishing 16 straight seasons, breaking the longest streak in league history behind the Lakers, who won 50 12 times in a row from 1979 to 1991.


The Spurs rely heavily on their bench, which leads the league in scoring for the fifth straight season, with role players Danny Green, Boris Diaw, 7-foot Matt Bonner, 6-11 Tiago Splitter, plus Kawhi Leonard (16 ppg, 7.4 rpg) now a starting offensive and defensive star.


Coach Gregg Popovich and Duncan have 5 NBA title rings and they know defense is essential in the postseason. After ranking 17th in points allowed and 21st in field goal shooting percentage defense, the Spurs have improved to 9th, 8th and 13th in field goal defense the last three seasons.

Grizzlies: Memphis is a young team few want to face, with a big frontcourt and a suffocating defense, second in the NBA in points allowed and Top 11 in field goal shooting defense. There's no denying the talent and depth on this team, led by 32-year old 6-9 Zach Randolph (16.6 ppg, 11 rpg), 7-foot-1 29-year old Marc Gasol (17.8 ppg, 9 rpg), guard Mike Conley (16 ppg) and newcomer 6-9 Jeff Green. The Grizzlies are 48-23-2 ATS at home against a team with a winning road record, plus 19-7-1 under the total at home.

Rockets: Houston has given Dwight Howard the season off (for the most part) but hasn’t missed a beat, Top 10 in the NBA in scoring and assists behind 25-year old James Harden (27 ppg, 7 apg). Harden is able to get the most out of a good collection of role players in 29-year old Trevor Ariza (12 ppg), Patrick Beverley and Josh Smith, the latter coming off the bench as sixth-man. Despite a dazzling offense, Houston has really upgraded the defense this season, Top 10 in field goal shooting defense, plus No. 1 at defending the three. Houston is 14-3 under the total against a team with a winning record.

LA Clippers: Adding guard Chris Paul (18.8 ppg) with Blake Griffin (22 ppg, 7.6 rpg) is certainly a nice one-two punch to upgrade any franchise, especially on offense. This team is second in the NBA in scoring. But the depth and talent is exceptional for second-year Coach Doc Rivers, who has really helped to upgrade the defense, 14th in points scored, 5th in field goal defense, tops against the three-pointer.


Jamal Crawford, J.J. Redick and Matt Barnes are fine role players and Rivers has got DeAndre Jordan to focus on defense with 14.8 boards and 2.2 blocks per game. They will be fun to watch in the playoffs but here’s one warning: The Clippers rank 28th in free throw shooting. Will that hurt in close playoff games?


Odds to win the 2015 Western Conference - per Sportsbook.ag


Golden State Warriors 5/7
San Antonio Spurs 9/2
Los Angeles Clippers 5/1
Houston Rockets 8/1
Memphis Grizzlies 12/1
Dallas Mavericks 50/1
Portland Blazers 60/1
New Orleans Pelicans 150/1
 

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NBA post-Game 1 series takes


April 20, 2015


All 16 NBA playoff teams are on an even playing field now. That’s not to say the Celtics are suddenly going to get a game off LeBron James’ Cavaliers, but they were never going to win that Game 1.


While you couldn’t go anywhere without hearing that Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love were finally experiencing the postseason under much maligned first-time head coach David Blatt, it went virtually unnoticed that Boston’s Brad Stevens, Sixth Man of the Year runner-up Isaiah Thomas and young guys like Marcus Smart, Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger were all getting their first taste of the playoffs, too.


On the road.


That’s the game-changer, because a hostile environment fueled by fans thrilled to get free t-shirts and soak in an atmosphere that simply can’t be replicated on any other night during the season usually proves to be insurmountable. Last year was the anomaly, since five of the eight road teams won after every single one of them had lost the previous season.


This past weekend, every home team except Toronto, seven of eight, won their first-round game. Feeding off both the juice provided by sellout crowds and the familiarity of being able to get to their spots in striving to get comfortable, Game 1’s built-in advantage allowed the favorite to cover five of eight spreads.


The playoffs are what most players refer to as the “real season,” despite so many of them having little experience working when games matter most. It’s always telling to see who responds and who wilts.


Every team has their agendas early in a postseason, be it as simple as settling in and making sure everyone touches it on the first few possessions. Cleveland’s mission was far more contrived, which we’ll get into in these Game 1 observations:


No. 1 Atlanta vs. No. 8 Brooklyn


Hawks fans definitely answered the call that they would be able to supply a suitable homecourt advantage given their history of poor attendance. They’ve taken notice of this year’s team as a special one and will make it tough on road teams. Former fan favorite Joe Johnson was booed every time he touched the ball and didn’t handle it well early, contributing to Atlanta building a substantial cushion. Kyle Korver felt comfortable with the green light and took his 3-point looks fearlessly, which is also a great sign for this group. Brooklyn’s Deron Williams wasn’t sharp in Game 1 and will doom his team to a quick early exit if he doesn’t step his game up. On the heels of getting called out by Paul Pierce for shrinking from the spotlight, his poor performance was even more discouraging.


No. 2 Cleveland vs. No. 7 Boston


LeBron went out of his way to play facilitator, striving to get Irving, Love, J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Timofey Mozgov off before himself. That he led the team in assists should come as no surprise, but getting 20 points when barely trying to assert himself in that phase of the game has to give those who backed a sweep great hope. Irving’s brilliance should come as no surprise, since that kid’s nickname should be “Born Ready” instead of Lance Stephenson. Love’s struggles early were glaring, especially since Boston really overwhelmed him in the paint, but he rebounded well and made a positive contribution on that end. The Cavs then had he and Irving join James at the podium in their first three-man press conference of the season, a sign that the team is trying to prop up his confidence as the key to a run to the Finals.


No. 3 Chicago vs. No. 6 Milwaukee


Derrick Rose’s Game 1 was liberating. Both he and Jimmy Butler came in with injury-related concerns and took over the game in spite of them. The Bucks are putting a lot on Khris Middleton’s plate and will need to hit 3-pointers to hang around in the series. Unless Jason Kidd can free up Michael Carter-Williams to be more of a threat driving into the paint, the Bucks don’t figure to get much around the rim, which means this might be a far shorter series than some (me) imagined.


No. 4 Toronto vs. No. 5 Washington


Pierce isn’t like most. This Game 2 will be his 150th career playoff game, so he’s heard his share of boos. Making himself Public Enemy No. 1 in Toronto last year wound up working out for the Brooklyn Nets, so it became a priority this season. Saying the Wizards didn’t have “it,” he took all the pressure off young guards John Wall and Bradley Beal, then came through with big shot after big shot to quiet naysayers. He’s made this whole series about him. It’s on Raptors All-Star guard Kyle Lowry to change that or his team will be in a major hole.


No. 1 Golden State vs. No. 8 New Orleans


The Warriors aren’t going to be challenged here. New Orleans doesn’t have guards capable of making enough perimeter shots to hang with Golden State, at least at ORACLE Arena. Not only do elite shooters know every spot on that floor, they excel in feeding off the NBA’s top homecourt advantage, one that has produced a 40-2 mark and counting thus far this season. Anthony Davis is going to win a game by himself because he’s that blessed, but it won’t be happening in Oakland and won’t happen more than once. This series goes a maximum of five games.


No. 2 Houston vs. No. 7 Dallas


The Mavericks got stuck playing catch-up and lost a game where Dirk Nowitzki shot 10-for-14, something that isn’t likely to happen again this postseason. Amar’e Stoudemire, 2-for-12 off the bench, was outplayed by Swiss rookie Clint Capela, who helped make up for Dwight Howard playing just 17 minutes due to foul trouble. Rajon Rondo shot the ball well (7-for-16), yet was a -25 when on the court. It was a disconcerting opener for Dallas, who lost by double-digits despite James Harden shooting just 4-for-11.


No. 3 L.A. Clippers vs. No. 6 San Antonio


Tiago Splitter could only give the Spurs nine minutes, which means they’re in deep trouble if that doesn’t change. Being forced to use Boris Diaw and Aron Baynes against an athletically superior frontcourt led by Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan is something the defending champs may not be able to overcome. Chris Paul was brilliant in scoring 32 points on 13-for-20 shooting, overwhelming Tony Parker. Gregg Popovich can no longer afford to play anyone but Kawhi Leonard on him. It’s not panic time in San Antonio, even if it loses Game 2, but a lineup without Splitter won’t win four games here.


No. 4 Portland vs. No. 5 Memphis


Beno Udrih isn’t going to scorer a game-high 20 points again, but his emergence only made the result more pronounced. The Grizzlies might sweep this series if the Trail Blazers can’t establish better balance on offense, as LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard combined for 56 shots, making just 18 due to the increased attention they received. Going up against an elite defensive team like Memphis, Portland head coach Terry Stotts, a gifted offensive mind, needs to get creative. It’s not helping his cause that Arron Afflalo remains out, but he’s going to need to get more out of Nicolas Batum and young guys C.J. McCollum and Allan Crabbe. The fact Tony Allen looks spry doesn’t aid the Blazer cause.
 

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Tuesday's Playoff Essentials


April 21, 2015




Celtics at Cavaliers – 7:05 PM EST
Well, as great a strategist as Brad Stevens is, already one of the best in the pro game, he doesn’t have too many answers or tricks up his sleeve here. His Celtics led the Cavs 38-31 nearly 15 minutes into Game 1, having just gotten six straight points from rookie Marcus Smart before Cleveland wrestled the game back with a flurry of 3-pointers. Boston’s most effective offense was spreading the floor and allowing big reserve forward Kelly Olynyk to take advantage of mismatches on the perimeter. Center Tyler Zeller got clean looks around the rim early and made the most of it, but outside of Olynyk and Sixth Man of the Year runner-up Isaiah Thomas coming off the bench to wreak havoc, there aren’t a lot of offensive options for Stevens to call upon. Thomas scored a game-high 22 points, but since the four regular-season meetings included a Nov. 14 game that featured Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green as well as two April games where the Cavs didn't play to win, there isn't much for the Celtics to draw from beyond Game 1. Boston was +1500 to pull the upset in this series per Sportsbook.ag and is now +2500. The 113-100 Game 1 loss was the Celtics second consecutive game that went over the posted total after three straight unders, two of which came against Cleveland.


The Cavs have made a concerted effort to make sure Kevin Love is included in all “Big 3” activities to start this postseason. That included a post-game press conference including him alongside LeBron James and Kyrie Irving for the first time all year, which tells you Cleveland is using this series with Boston as the first part of a progression, looking to boost the confidence of a supporting cast expected to help James reach his fifth straight NBA Finals. LeBron did his part by concentrating on facilitating and dictating tempo, never forcing the issue and deferring to teammates in an effort to make sure they got into a rhythm. He wound up with 20 points, six rebounds and a team-high seven assists. Irving stole the show with a game-high 30 points, including five 3-pointers, declaring post-game, “we are the Big 3, we have really great players on this team, but we set the tone.” Love shot the ball poorly but grabbed a game-high 12 rebounds, while Iman Shumpert ended up playing a bench-high 32 minutes, providing impressive defense. Head coach David Blatt had a relatively stress-Bonus Playoff debut due to James’ game management and the fact Cleveland took a 20-point second-half lead and was never seriously challenged in the fourth. The Cavs were -3500 to win the series according to Sportsbook.ag and are now -10000 up 1-0. Their last three games have gone over the posted total.


Wizards at Raptors – 8:05 PM EST


While their Game 1 overtime win was well-deserved, it was also indicative of why the Wizards underachieved as much as they did this season. Head coach Randy Wittman, who got himself an extension after defeating Chicago in last year’s playoffs, was the subject of scorn and criticism throughout multiple Washington losing streaks, particularly since they often blew leads and looked powerless to stop it. The trend reared its ugly head again as Toronto erased a 15-point edge with just 8:45 to go, taking advantage of unimaginative offense sets that resulted in brutal possessions. Paul Pierce, who helped Brooklyn overcome the Raptors in last year’s first round, shot 48.5 percent and averaged 14.7 points against the Raptors during the regular season, the most he averaged against any Eastern Conference opponent except Boston. He relished in all the boos that rained down from the Air Canada Centre on Saturday, coming up with a game-high 20 points, the most he’s scored since Feb. 24. The Wizards are now 4-1 when he scores 20 or more. John Wall and Bradley Beal combined for just 26 points on 11-for-41 shooting, finishing 1-for-9 from 3-point range. Winning in spite of such a power outage from an explosive backcourt does inspire hope, especially since injury-prone PF Nene shook off the effects of an injured ankle to score 12 points and grab 13 rebounds in only 21 minutes. The Wizards opened +165 to pull the upset in this series according to Sportsbook.ag and are now -165. Four of Washington’s last six games have gone over the posted total, but Game 1’s 93-86 result went under 194 handily in spite of the five extra minutes.


The Raptors managed to get into OT despite shooting just 38 percent, including 6-for-29 from 3-point range. They were outrebounded 61-48 and were beaten in both fast-break points (52-44) and points in the paint (13-6). All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry closed the regular season by shooting 34.4 percent after returning from a seven-game absence due to back issues, so seeing him shoot 2-for-10 from the field, 0-for-4 from 3-point range, certainly wasn’t reassuring. DeMar DeRozan averaged 21.0 and 5.3 rebounds in the three wins over the Wizards during the regular season, but shot just 38.3 percent. He went 6-for-20 (30 pct) in Game 1, but did finish with team-highs in rebounds (11) and assists (6). Toronto’s bench was the main bright spot, since Amir Johnson, Sixth Man of the Year Lou Williams, Patrick Patterson, and Greivis Vasquez all scored in double-figures, combining for 48 points. Head coach Dwane Casey is going to have to push the right buttons early in this one, since avoiding falling into an 0-2 hole at home qualifies this as a must-win game. The Raptors opened at -190 to win the series according to Sportsbook.ag, but are now +145 after falling behind. Toronto is 2-6 ATS in their last eight and have seen five of their last six games go under the posted total.


Mavericks at Rockets – 9:35 PM EST


Who knows if we’ll ever see Dirk Nowitzki shoot 10-for-14 in another playoff game, but, offensively, he looked like the 2011 Finals MVP in Houston during Game 1. Defensively, he looked two steps low, which the Rockets took advantage of by putting him in pick-and-rolls and taking advantage of his lack of lateral movement. He was every bit the defensive liability, which is how he ended up a -6 in spite of such efficient offensive numbers. Point guard Rajon Rondo ended up -25 despite a relatively strong offensive game, aggressively taking a team-high 16 shots, scoring 15 points on seven makes. He had just five assists in spite of one turnover, but struggled to help get stops. Monta Ellis shot 5-for-16 and was also victimized defensively. Chandler Parsons briefly left the series opener with a knee issue but returned and wound up playing 36 minutes, shooting just 5-for-15, including 0-for-4 from 3-point range. Rockets fans booed him whenever he touched the ball. Parsons (knee) and Devin Harris (toe) are both questionable for Game 2 after missing practice on Monday. Amar’e Stoudemire struggled in his first significant playoff action since 2012 with the Knicks, shooting just 2-for-12 off the bench. Tyson Chandler wound up with 11 points and 18 rebounds, grabbing eight offensive boards. The Mavericks opened at +265 at Sportsbook.ag and is now +320.The over has hit in nine of the last 10 Dallas games, including seven straight.


Houston’s 118-108 win was keyed by the fact it took 45 free-throws, making 32 and avoiding the Hack-a-Shaq treatment for its worst shooters. James Harden overcame a 4-for-11 shooting night by going 15-for-17 from the stripe, adding 11 assists in a strong performance. The Rockets won by double-digits in spite of Dwight Howard saddled with foul trouble the entire game, winding up playing just 17 minutes. He ended up with 11 points, five rebounds and five blocks, but also had five fouls that prevented him from getting in much of a rhythm. Swiss rookie Clint Capela played 16 huge minutes, finishing with eight points and six rebounds while Josh Smith added 11 points and seven boards. With Donatas Motiejunas done for the season with a back injury, surviving Howard’s foul trouble as effectively as they managed to provides a huge mental boost for Houston. Patrick Beverley (wrist) must also be replaced, so seeing Jason Terry (16 points) play as well as he did against his former teammates also provided a major lift. Starting forwards Terrence Jones and Trevor Ariza combined for 31 points, 20 rebounds and 12 assists, keeping the ball moving and providing terrific defense. Corey Brewer was a tremendous asset off the bench, scoring 15 points and connecting on 3-of-4 clutch 3-pointers. Despite their personnel losses, beating Dallas while short-handed is proof the Rockets do have enough in the cupboard to make a championship run. Sportsbook.ag had Houston at -330 to win this series when it started and now lists it at -400. The Rockets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight, and have seen the posted total surpassed for overs in six of seven..


Total Notes


Chris David of VegasInsider.com provides us with his quick handicap on Tuesday’s totals.


For total bettors, the story of this year’s playoffs has been the ‘under’ which has started off with a 6-3-1 record and that number could be 8-2 if a couple games catch bounces. The two ‘over’ tickets were rather easy and they took place in two of three series taking place Tuesday.


Boston at Cleveland: The total on Game 1 closed at 204 and the game easily went ‘over’ as the two teams combined for 213 points. Cleveland got to the free throw line 33 times and unless the refs swallow their whistle, I doubt that number drops off significantly. The pace was slow for both teams but the aforementioned free throws, 55 combined attempts, made up for it. Unless the Celtics shoot a ridiculous percentage from the perimeter, I don’t see them busting 100 points again. Cleveland’s defense allowed 96.1 PPG at home this season, which is ranked fifth in the NBA, and that will come into play in Game 2.


Washington at Toronto: Even though Game 1 only saw a combined 179 points scored, I believe this total was adjusted too much. Saturday’s opener, which took place early in the afternoon, closed at 196. Now you’re dropping the line six points? Both teams shot below 40 percent in the opener and that’s an anomaly for this pair. Toronto averaged 103.8 PPG in the regular season while Washington posted 98.5 PPG. Another reason Game 1 lacked points was due to free throws or the lack thereof, as the teams took 29 combined attempts. I would expect another tight affair in Game 2 and believe this number eclipses the closing total.


Dallas at Houston: The Rockets ran past the Mavericks 118-108 in Game 1 and if the two teams run ‘n gun like they did in the opener, it’s hard to argue for an ‘under’ play in Game 2. Dallas took 14 more shots (99-85) but 28 less free throws (45-17), which was the difference. Houston gets to the line and it’s not because of the officials, rather James Harden. Some pundits believe Dallas coach Rick Carlisle will employ a hack-a-Howard or hack-a-Smith approach in Game 2. If that’s the case, ‘over’ bettors are getting opportunities to score with the clock stopped and not to sound redundant, but that makes the ‘under’ a tough lean.
 

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Tuesday, April 21


Miami at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET
Haren: 62-80 TSR against division opponents
Williams: 8-3 TSR after a loss

St Louis at Washington, 7:05 ET
Lynn: 4-13 TSR in road games after a win
Gonzalez: 21-6 TSR against NL Central opponents

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh, 7:05 ET
Chicago Cubs: 38-72 after allowing 2 runs or less
Pittsburgh: 75-42 after scoring 2 runs or less

Atlanta at NY Mets, 7:10 ET
Atlanta: 49-30 in road games against division opponents
Niese: 8-18 TSR in home games after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing

Cincinnati at Milwaukee, 8:10 ET
Marquis: 93-67 TSR in the first half of the season
Milwaukee: 2-11 in all games

San Diego at Colorado, 8:40 ET
Morrow: 14-4 TSR OVER in all games over
Colorado: 67-50 OVER against right-handed starters

LA Dodgers at San Francisco, 10:15 ET
LA Dodgers: 18-24 after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games
San Francisco: 328-257 after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games

Baltimore at Toronto, 7:05 ET
Norris: 14-2 TSR against division opponents
Buehrle: 14-5 TSR OVER against division opponents

NY Yankees at Detroit, 7:05 ET
Eovaldi: 10-25 TSR against the money line in all games
Detroit: 11-2 in all games

Boston at Tampa Bay, 7:10 ET
Miley: 16-4 TSR UNDER as an underdog of +100 or higher
Archer: 1-9 TSR after giving up 2 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings

Minnesota at Kansas City, 8:10 ET
Milone: 10-2 TSR OVER against division opponents
Vargas: 29-12 TSR at home with a money line of -100 to -150

Cleveland at Chicago White Sox, 8:10 ET
Carrasco: 10-1 TSR UNDER as a favorite of -110 or higher
Chicago White Sox: 32-49 in home games against division opponents

Oakland at LA Angels, 10:05 ET
Oakland: 98-73 OVER after one or more consecutive overs
Santiago: 2-9 TSR at home with a money line of -100 to -150

Houston at Seattle, 10:10 ET
Mchugh: 8-0 TSR after a game where he did not walk a batter
Seattle: 24-36 in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games

Texas at Arizona, 9:40 ET
Texas: 46-41 in road games off 2 straight road losses against a division rival
Arizona: 7-15 as a favorite of -125 to -175​



 

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Tuesday, April 21


Eastern Conference - Rd 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2

Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:05 ET
Boston: 84-59 OVER after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more
Cleveland: 15-5 OVER after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers


Eastern Conference - Rd 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2

Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors, 8:05 ET
Washington: 26-15 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog
Toronto: 10-22 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less


Western Conference - Rd 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2

Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets, 9:35 ET
Dallas: 7-15 ATS as a road underdog
Houston: 35-20 ATS after playing a game as favorite
 

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Tuesday, April 21


Eastern Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 4

Tampa Bay at Detroit, 7:05 ET
Tampa Bay: 22-7 SU after playing 3 consecutive home games
Detroit: 9-14 SU revenging a same season loss vs opponent


Eastern Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 4

Washington at NY Islanders, 7:35 ET
Washington: 7-1 SU in road games off a road loss
NY islanders: 9-13 SU after playing a game where 4 or fewer total goals were scored


Western Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 4

Nashville at Chicago, 9:35 ET
Nashville: 6-14 SU after 2 or more consecutive overs
Chicago: 18-3 SU in home games after 2 or more consecutive overs
 

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Tuesday, April 21


Game Score Status Pick Amount


Tampa Bay - 7:00 PM ET Tampa Bay -106 500 *****
Detroit - Over 5.5 500 *****


Washington - 7:30 PM ET Washington +118 500 DOUBLE PLAY
NY Islanders - Under 5.5 500


Nashville - 9:30 PM ET Chicago -160 500 HAT TRICK
Chicago - Under 5.5 500


Vancouver - 10:00 PM ET Calgary -116 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Calgary - Over 5 500 DOUBLE PLAY




------------------------------------------------------------------


NBA


Tuesday, April 21


Game Score Status Pick Amount


Boston - 7:00 PM ET Cleveland -11 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Cleveland - Over 205.5 500


Washington - 8:00 PM ET Toronto -4.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Toronto - Over 192.5 500


Dallas - 9:30 PM ET Houston -6.5 500 *****
Houston - Over 215 500 *****


------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MLB


Tuesday, April 21


Game Score Status Pick Amount


Chi. Cubs - 7:05 PM ET Chi. Cubs +137 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Pittsburgh - Over 7 500


Miami - 7:05 PM ET Philadelphia +111 500 *****
Philadelphia - Over 7.5 500


St. Louis - 7:05 PM ET Washington -115 500
Washington - Under 7 500


Baltimore - 7:07 PM ET Baltimore +114 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Toronto - Under 9 500


NY Yankees - 7:08 PM ET NY Yankees +107 500
Detroit - Over 8.5 500


Boston - 7:10 PM ET Tampa Bay -113 500 *****
Tampa Bay - Over 7.5 500


Atlanta - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets -149 500 GRAND SLAM
NY Mets - Over 7 500


Cleveland - 8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox +119 500
Chi. White Sox - Over 8.5 500


Minnesota - 8:10 PM ET Kansas City -145 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Kansas City - Over 8 500


Cincinnati - 8:10 PM ET Cincinnati +115 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Milwaukee - Under 8 500


San Diego - 8:40 PM ET San Diego +101 500 GRAND SLAM
Colorado - Over 10 500


Texas - 9:40 PM ET Arizona -140 500
Arizona - Over 9 500


Oakland - 10:05 PM ET Oakland +109 500
LA Angels - Over 7.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY


Houston - 10:10 PM ET Houston -106 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Seattle - Under 7 500
 

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