Sunday's Playoff Essentials
May 10, 2015
Cavaliers (-1.5, 194.5) at Bulls – 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC
East Semis Game 4 – Chicago leads 2-1
LeBron James comes off one of his worst playoff games of his career. It says a lot about him when that can be said after 27-8-14, but he shot 8-for-25 (1-for-7 from 3) and committed seven turnovers in Friday’s 99-96 loss. Because of how the game ended, it’s easy to forget how it started. James dished out seven assists in an opening quarter where he again looked to facilitate first. He never got himself into a rhythm, which creates an interesting dilemma for him in Game 4. Can James afford to wait before working himself into a lather for a must-win game or does he put a priority on ensuring his primary tag-team partner gets going?
Kyrie Irving had one of the worst games of his entire career, nevermind the playoffs. He failed to record an assist for the first time since Nov. 5 and shot 3-for-13, making no shots inside the 3-point arc. Irving scored 30 points in the series opener and Bulls defenders were having a hard time keeping him in front of them, but he rolled his ankle in the first quarter and hasn’t been 100 percent due to a right foot sprain that was disclosed by head coach David Blatt in defending his point guard’s performance. James’ decision to help Irving get going first or put the entire team on his back is going to be the key to this entire game, since the Bulls defense will adjust accordingly.
Chris David writes that “Unfortunately for fans, this series has become a battle of attrition and it appears that whichever team is left standing could be deemed the winner. Along with turnovers and fouls, you can’t handicap health and nobody really knows the status of these players.” Irving’s woes were softened by J.R. Smith returning from a two-game suspension. Playing his first game of the series, he drilled a pair of clutch 3-pointers in the fourth quarter, inspiring confidence from James, who will undoubtedly have him riding on the wing alongside him down the stretch going forward. Iman Shumpert played 34 minutes despite being limited by his groin injury and shot just 3-for-9, including 2-for-7 from 3-point range, but it’s clear he’s also not the same player who started the series.
Matthew Dellavedova remained in Blatt’s rotation while Mike Miller, and Shawn Marion were cut out altogether, giving the Cavs a smaller, quicker look since Kendrick Perkins remains unutilized. The Bulls won the rebounding battle 54-39 in Game 3, so it will be interesting to see if Blatt deviates again and opts to go bigger. The Cavs opened -215 to win the series according to Sportsbook.ag., but have gone from a -160 favorite before Game 3 to +140 now down 2-1. Five of the last six Cavs playoffs games have gone under the posted total.
Derrick Rose showed no ill effects from the shoulder stinger suffered in Game 1, firing up 26 shots, including the game-winning bank shot. He’ll continue to be aggressive, but still hasn’t shot the ball all that well in the series (27-for-72, 37.5 pct). He did manage to finally get to the free-throw line after going three consecutive games without doing so, winding up 9-for-10, but nailing the first Bulls playoff buzzer-beater since Michael Jordan doesn’t alter the fact that he’s still struggling with his shooting. Rose has improved in limiting his turnovers and has been active on the boards, which helped Chicago regain control of an area that was an issue in Game 2, as the Cavs turned 14 offensive rebounds into points.
The Bulls finished with an 18-9 edge on the offensive boards in Game 3 despite losing Pau Gasol to a strained hamstring that has him questionable to play. Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson combined for 10 of the offensive rebounds and did a better job matching up with the athleticism of Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov, but neither is the weapon on pick-and-pops that Gasol is. Jimmy Butler is averaging 19.3 points and shooting 5-for-16 from 3-point range in the series, but his greatest contributions this have been his defensive work on James. He had five steals in Game 3.
David’s betting nugget for this series highlights Chicago’s performance as a home underdog, which only occurred eight times this season. “The Bulls have gone 4-4 both SU and ATS in those games but the ‘over’ has produced a 6-2 mark. Chicago averaged 100 PPG over this span and that tells me that its playing aggressive and feeding off the home fans.” Chicago initially was +185 to pull the upset in this series per Sportsbook.ag., and are now available at -120. Unders had prevailed in five of the last six Bulls games.
Rockets at Clippers (-4, 217) – 8:30 pm. ET – TNT
West Semis Game 4 – L.A. leads 2-1
The Rockets knew their first playoff game outside of the state of Texas wasn’t going to be easy, but they felt confident given the uncertainty surrounding Clippers point guard Chris Paul and the re-emergence of James Harden in Game 2’s fourth quarter. That confidence was short-lived. The Clippers last trailed less than four minutes in and dominated coming out of the halftime break, crushing Houston’s spirit in Game 3. It remains to be seen if they’ve stomped out their heart for the series. Harden is averaging 25.7 points and 10 assists against L.A. thus far and is 25-for-26 from the free-throw line in the series, but he’s also turned the ball over 21 times in the three games. He’s yet to play like the MVP runner-up against the Clips despite no defender on the roster who should be able to check him.
The Rockets tied the Clips with a 26-15 road record that was second-best in the West behind Golden State, so there’s hope that they can pick themselves up off the mat yet again, but there isn’t much to point toward from Game 3 as something they can rally behind. Dwight Howard played his worst game of the series, outplayed by DeAndre Jordan and unable to overcome the free-throw shooting woes that have shaken his confidence. Howard ended up 4-for-11 from the stripe and is now 16-for-41 (39 pct) against the Clippers. Doc Rivers will certainly play the Hack-a-Dwight again on Sunday since the addition of a hostile crowd to the equation has shaken the defensive focus he’s shown all postseason. Houston lacks a rim protector when he’s off the floor, leaving its suspect defense further exposed.
Trevor Ariza, Terrence Jones and Josh Smith were a combined 10-for-29 from the field and blocked no shots between them. Smith grabbed nine rebounds, but Houston’s starting forwards each had just two boards and went 1-for-10 from 3-point range. Jason Terry was the only Rocket to shoot better than 50 percent from the field and still managed a team-worst -22 in the plus/minus game, bringing little to the table defensively. The Rockets are now +400 at Sportsbook.ag.. Six of Houston’s eight playoff games have gone over the posted total, and the over is 11-3 in its games dating back to the end of the regular season.
More total talk from VI’s David: ”I’m very surprised this total isn’t higher for Game 4 just based on Houston’s defense. The Rockets are allowing 112.5 points per game in the postseason and they’ve made bench players named Rivers and Barea look like All-Stars in the playoffs. At this point, Houston can’t fix its issues defensively but I do believe the offense is too good to be held under 100 points again. The Rockets live and die by the 3-pointer and it’s been more of the latter in this series. If they ever shoot 40 percent from downtown, they will put up a minimum of 110 on Los Angeles.”
Paul debuted in the series after missing the first two games with a strained left hamstring and really shined. He played just 23 minutes and probably won’t see his typical allotment of playing time on Sunday, but he scored 12 points, dished out seven assists and helped everyone get comfortable. Head coach Doc Rivers got the ultimate boost from son Austin Rivers, who put the game away with his unexpected scoring flurry, winding up with 25 points on 10-for-13 shooting. J.J. Redick added 31 points on 11-for-14 shooting, including 5-for-6 from 3-point range. Ball movement has been a major factor in the series, since everyone has looked to make the extra pass and share the glory, a specialty of the vanquished Spurs that the Clips seemed to focus on as a key to getting through that series.
Blake Griffin continued his exceptional play in the series, finishing with 22 points, 14 boards and four assists in continuing his run as one of the most productive performers of these playoffs. Jordan was back in foul trouble in Game 3, but played 36 minutes, grabbing 15 rebounds and changing the game with his activity.
Despite the one-sided dominance L.A. demonstrated in Game 3, VI’s David warns you to think twice before laying the big number. “Oddsmakers have installed them as even healthier favorites in Game 4. A lot of bettors often put too much stock into big wins and it could come back to bite you in the ass. The one betting trend on Los Angeles that should be noted is how it does off an ATS victory in the postseason. Since 2012, Los Angeles is 1-11-1 ATS off an ATS win in the playoffs, the lone victory coming in Game 3’s double-digit victory of this series. The Clippers are 3-0 ATS in this series but Sunday’s number seems a tad inflated.”
Sportsbook.ag. has installed the Clippers as -550 chalk to reach the Western Conference Finals. Six of the Clippers last seven games have gone over the posted total.
