Cnotes Best Bets For Friday May 1st - MLB - NBA -NHL !

[CNOTES]

MLB
Long Sheet

Friday, May 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MILWAUKEE (5 - 17) at CHICAGO CUBS (12 - 8) - 2:20 PM
WILY PERALTA (R) vs. JON LESTER (L)
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 5-17 (-13.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 19-37 (-21.7 Units) against the money line in May games over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 41-54 (-17.3 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 5-17 (-13.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
LESTER is 38-9 (+20.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)
MILWAUKEE is 7-2 (+9.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +175 over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1399-1561 (-277.3 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 150-124 (-49.0 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 750-731 (-165.6 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 150-189 (-56.1 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 356-342 (-87.2 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 747-791 (-149.2 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1342-1474 (-252.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1026-1159 (-210.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 685-685 (-153.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

WILY PERALTA vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
PERALTA is 3-5 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.74 and a WHIP of 1.265.
His team's record is 3-6 (-4.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-2. (+3.6 units)

JON LESTER vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
LESTER is 0-2 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 2.94 and a WHIP of 1.174.
His team's record is 0-2 (-3.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-0. (+2.1 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (9 - 13) at NY METS (15 - 7) - 7:10 PM
MAX SCHERZER (R) vs. MATT HARVEY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 12-19 (-15.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 94-90 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 10-0 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
NY METS are 10-0 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents this season.
NY METS are 10-0 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field this season.
NY METS are 9-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
NY METS are 51-29 (+21.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 31-10 (+17.6 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.
SCHERZER is 52-21 (+22.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SCHERZER is 29-7 (+18.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
NY METS is 2-1 (+1.6 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.9 Units)

MAX SCHERZER vs. NY METS since 1997
SCHERZER is 2-1 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 2.22 and a WHIP of 1.191.
His team's record is 2-2 (-1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.1 units)

MATT HARVEY vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
HARVEY is 2-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 0.82 and a WHIP of 0.879.
His team's record is 2-3 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-3. (-1.5 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (8 - 14) at MIAMI (10 - 12) - 7:10 PM
JEROME WILLIAMS (R) vs. TOM KOEHLER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 68-87 (-29.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 123-107 (+28.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Friday since 1997.
WILLIAMS is 10-5 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
WILLIAMS is 7-1 (+8.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
WILLIAMS is 10-5 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-1 (+1.0 Units) against PHILADELPHIA this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

JEROME WILLIAMS vs. MIAMI since 1997
WILLIAMS is 1-1 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 7.29 and a WHIP of 1.619.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+1.8 units)

TOM KOEHLER vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
KOEHLER is 2-1 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 3.60 and a WHIP of 1.233.
His team's record is 3-2 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-4. (-3.6 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (10 - 11) at ATLANTA (10 - 11) - 7:35 PM
ANTHONY DESCLAFANI (R) vs. TREVOR CAHILL (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

ANTHONY DESCLAFANI vs. ATLANTA since 1997
No recent starts.

TREVOR CAHILL vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
CAHILL is 0-1 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 2.77 and a WHIP of 1.154.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.4 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (12 - 10) at ST LOUIS (14 - 6) - 8:15 PM
A.J. BURNETT (R) vs. LANCE LYNN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 248-482 (-104.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
BURNETT is 206-209 (-41.1 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997. (Team's Record)
BURNETT is 8-33 (-22.4 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 since 1997. (Team's Record)
BURNETT is 87-128 (-46.7 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997. (Team's Record)
BURNETT is 32-43 (-19.3 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday since 1997. (Team's Record)
BURNETT is 37-59 (-24.4 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)
BURNETT is 166-176 (-39.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997. (Team's Record)
BURNETT is 136-148 (-34.1 Units) against the money line in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
BURNETT is 104-108 (-26.0 Units) against the money line after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 121-63 (+29.7 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 20-4 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in home games when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 58-26 (+18.1 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 121-63 (+29.7 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 167-107 (+34.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 415-281 (+64.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
LYNN is 12-1 (+10.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -150 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
PITTSBURGH is 197-156 (+29.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 21-7 (+14.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 195-155 (+27.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 136-93 (+32.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 159-127 (+26.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

A.J. BURNETT vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
BURNETT is 9-7 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 4.34 and a WHIP of 1.327.
His team's record is 10-9 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 10-9. (+0.4 units)

LANCE LYNN vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
LYNN is 5-4 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 5.11 and a WHIP of 1.487.
His team's record is 8-6 (+0.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 9-5. (+3.8 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (10 - 11) at LA DODGERS (13 - 8) - 10:10 PM
RUBBY DE LA ROSA (R) vs. CARLOS FRIAS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 74-109 (-31.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 74-109 (-31.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 56-81 (-23.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 26-47 (-21.7 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 28-57 (-24.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 26-32 (-14.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 3 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 54-53 (-12.0 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-1 (+1.8 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

RUBBY DE LA ROSA vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
No recent starts.

CARLOS FRIAS vs. ARIZONA since 1997
No recent starts.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO (11 - 10) at SAN DIEGO (11 - 12) - 10:10 PM
EDDIE BUTLER (R) vs. IAN KENNEDY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 16-44 (-22.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 148-267 (-64.5 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 since 1997.
COLORADO is 28-65 (-30.6 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 16-44 (-22.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 91-178 (-68.5 Units) against the money line in road games in May games since 1997.
COLORADO is 28-65 (-30.6 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 18-49 (-28.3 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 53-82 (-28.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 16-43 (-24.0 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 66-84 (-28.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 31-19 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 2-2 (+0.3 Units) against COLORADO this season
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.2 Units)

EDDIE BUTLER vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
No recent starts.

IAN KENNEDY vs. COLORADO since 1997
KENNEDY is 5-4 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 2.95 and a WHIP of 1.200.
His team's record is 12-6 (+5.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-11. (-6.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (12 - 10) at BALTIMORE (10 - 10) - 7:05 PM
ALEX COLOME (R) vs. CHRIS TILLMAN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 89-95 (-24.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 57-64 (-18.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 110-80 (+35.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 53-39 (+12.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 58-37 (+15.7 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 57-39 (+20.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 97-69 (+31.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 78-46 (+37.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 85-58 (+31.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 61-47 (+16.9 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 53-37 (+22.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TILLMAN is 28-13 (+16.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 25-11 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 20-9 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 26-14 (+16.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
TAMPA BAY is 566-647 (+16.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents since 1997.
BALTIMORE is 16-27 (-15.0 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-1 (+1.1 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

ALEX COLOME vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
COLOME is 1-0 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 1.59 and a WHIP of 1.058.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)

CHRIS TILLMAN vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
TILLMAN is 5-6 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.87 and a WHIP of 1.132.
His team's record is 9-6 (+4.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-9. (-4.7 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (10 - 12) at CLEVELAND (7 - 13) - 7:05 PM
MARK BUEHRLE (L) vs. CARLOS CARRASCO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 19-36 (-18.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 24-10 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in home games in May games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 102-56 (+34.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 21-9 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in May games over the last 2 seasons.
BUEHRLE is 24-12 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BUEHRLE is 10-2 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in May games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BUEHRLE is 15-3 (+12.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CARRASCO is 3-10 (-10.6 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
CARRASCO is 3-10 (-10.6 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
CARRASCO is 4-15 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
CARRASCO is 1-7 (-9.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MARK BUEHRLE vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
BUEHRLE is 15-17 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 4.78 and a WHIP of 1.387.
His team's record is 26-22 (-2.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 22-24. (-4.7 units)

CARLOS CARRASCO vs. TORONTO since 1997
CARRASCO is 0-1 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 9.34 and a WHIP of 2.076.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY YANKEES (13 - 9) at BOSTON (12 - 10) - 7:10 PM
C.C. SABATHIA (L) vs. JUSTIN MASTERSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SABATHIA is 1-9 (-9.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BOSTON is 83-102 (-28.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 597-535 (-76.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.
BOSTON is 7-19 (-15.2 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 40-52 (-25.3 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 14-20 (-12.6 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 39-54 (-17.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 74-88 (-24.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 34-50 (-22.3 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 15-31 (-21.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 2-1 (+1.1 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.0 Units)

C.C. SABATHIA vs. BOSTON since 1997
SABATHIA is 11-14 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 4.98 and a WHIP of 1.369.
His team's record is 12-19 (-10.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 16-14. (+0.5 units)

JUSTIN MASTERSON vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
MASTERSON is 4-4 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 3.70 and a WHIP of 1.339.
His team's record is 4-5 (-0.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-2. (+3.7 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (9 - 13) at TEXAS (7 - 14) - 8:05 PM
SCOTT KAZMIR (L) vs. COLBY LEWIS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 97-88 (-23.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 46-49 (-22.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 95-84 (-21.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 74-109 (-24.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 35-55 (-22.6 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 3-10 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS is 16-32 (-17.4 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 72-105 (-22.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 47-86 (-35.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 21-34 (-14.5 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 22-42 (-22.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 2-2 (+1.0 Units) against OAKLAND this season
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.2 Units)

SCOTT KAZMIR vs. TEXAS since 1997
KAZMIR is 10-5 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 3.12 and a WHIP of 1.189.
His team's record is 13-6 (+5.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 9-7. (+1.6 units)

COLBY LEWIS vs. OAKLAND since 1997
LEWIS is 9-4 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 3.31 and a WHIP of 1.248.
His team's record is 12-9 (+4.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 9-11. (-2.9 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (10 - 11) at HOUSTON (14 - 7) - 8:10 PM
ROENIS ELIAS (L) vs. SAM DEDUNO (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-1 (+2.0 Units) against SEATTLE this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.9 Units)

ROENIS ELIAS vs. HOUSTON since 1997
ELIAS is 0-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 1.59 and a WHIP of 1.324.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.1 units)

SAM DEDUNO vs. SEATTLE since 1997
DEDUNO is 3-1 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 1.38 and a WHIP of 0.885.
His team's record is 3-1 (+2.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.2 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (15 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (14 - 7) - 8:10 PM
KYLE LOBSTEIN (L) vs. CHRIS YOUNG (R)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 142-213 (-55.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997.
KANSAS CITY is 114-84 (+18.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 23-8 (+13.6 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 18-6 (+11.6 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 110-81 (+16.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 82-57 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 55-39 (+15.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
YOUNG is 17-11 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
DETROIT is 39-23 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 20-37 (-23.6 Units) against the money line in May games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

KYLE LOBSTEIN vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
No recent starts.

CHRIS YOUNG vs. DETROIT since 1997
YOUNG is 2-0 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 1.67 and a WHIP of 0.852.
His team's record is 2-2 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.1 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHI WHITE SOX (8 - 10) at MINNESOTA (9 - 12) - 8:10 PM
JOSE QUINTANA (L) vs. KYLE GIBSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHI WHITE SOX are 17-35 (-19.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 67-61 (+16.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHI WHITE SOX is 2-1 (+0.9 Units) against MINNESOTA this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

JOSE QUINTANA vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
QUINTANA is 3-2 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 4.40 and a WHIP of 1.395.
His team's record is 4-6 (-4.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-5. (-0.8 units)

KYLE GIBSON vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
GIBSON is 1-0 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 4.26 and a WHIP of 1.105.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA ANGELS (10 - 11) at SAN FRANCISCO (9 - 13) - 10:15 PM
C.J. WILSON (L) vs. CHRIS HESTON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
WILSON is 5-14 (-10.2 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 19-9 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in May games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1029-863 (+114.7 Units) against the money line in night games since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 244-157 (+51.0 Units) against the money line in home games against left-handed starters since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 756-733 (+70.9 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 275-202 (+50.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 94-71 (+30.9 Units) against the money line in road games in an inter-league game since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 635-617 (+64.7 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 539-518 (+50.9 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 59-28 (+20.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

C.J. WILSON vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
WILSON is 1-1 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.65 and a WHIP of 1.298.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.1 units)

CHRIS HESTON vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
No recent starts.

 

[CNOTES]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, May 1

National League
Brewers @ Cubs
Peralta is 0-3, 5.04 in his four starts; seven of his last nine stayed under.

Lester is 0-0, 6.23 in his four starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six.

Cubs won five of last six games with Milwaukee; seven of last ten games in series stayed under. Brewers are 5-17 (3-7 in last ten); four of their last five games went over total. Chicago won four of last five games; over is 3-1-2 in its last six games.

Nationals @ Mets
Scherzer is 1-2, 2.20 in his four starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven.

Harvey is 4-0, 3.04 in his four starts; all four went over. Mets scored 27 runs in his four starts.

Mets are 2-5 in last seven games since their 11-game win streak; they're 10-1 at home this season. NY is 4-7 in last 11 games against Washington, with five of last eight staying under total. Nationals won last three games, scoring 34 runs; their last six went over the total. Over is 4-1-1 in last six Met games.

Phillies @ Marlins
Williams is 2-1, 4.56 in his four starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five.

Koehler is 2-2, 4.50 in his four starts; six of his last eight went over.

Miami won five of last seven games with Philly; over is 3-0-1 in the last four. Phillies lost last three games, allowing 25 runs; over is 3-1-1 in last five. Miami won seven of last eight games; over is 6-3-1 in their last ten.

Reds @ Braves
DeSclafani is 2-1, 2.42 in his four starts; under is 3-0-1 in those four.

Foltynewicz was 0-1, 5.30 in 16 relief stints for Houston LY; this is his first MLB start. He is 0-3, 2.08 in four AAA starts this year.

Braves lost eight of last ten games overall, with four of last five going over total. Reds won three of last four games- four of their last six went over. Atlanta won five of last eight games with Cincinnati; under is 5-1-1 in last seven series games.

Pirates @ Cardinals
Burnett is 0-1, 1.80 in his four starts; under is 4-0-1 in his last five.

Lynn is 1-2, 4.03 in his four starts; five of his last seven stayed under.

Pittsburgh lost seven of last ten games with the Cardinals; three of last four played in St Louis went over total. Pirates won six of last eight games; under is 3-1-2 in last six. St Louis won seven of last nine games; over is 4-1-1 in last six games. Redbirds scored 25 runs in last three games.

Diamondbacks @ Dodgers
de la Rosa is 2-1, 5.04 in four starts; four of his last six went over.

Frias started two games LY; one really good (0 runs/6 IP), one awful (8 runs in 0.2 IP); he is 1-1, 6.12 in 32.1 big league IP.

Dodgers won six of last eight games with Arizona; four of last five played in LA went over total. Diamondbacks won last two games, scoring 21 runs after they lost five of previous six- their last three went over. Dodgers won four of last six games; under is 5-3 in their last eight.

Rockies @ Padres
Butler is 2-1, 3.27 in his four starts (under 2-1-1).

Kennedy is 0-1, 10.80 in his two starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight.

Rockies are 6-4 in last ten games with San Diego; five of last seven tilts went under the total. Colorado lost three of last four games; last three went over. Padres lost seven of last eight games; four of last five went over.

American League
Orioles @ Rays (O's are home team)
Tillman is 2-2, 7.58 in his four starts; five of his last six went over.

Colome is making first '15 start; he is 3-1, 2.34 in six MLB starts, his last three stayed under the total.

Baltimore won three of last four games with the Rays; three of four went over the total. Orioles won last three games, scoring 31 runs- their last five games went over. Tampa Bay won six of last eight games; last five stayed under.

Blue Jays @ Indians
Buehrle is 3-1, 4.94 in his four starts; six of last eight went over. Jays scored 37 runs in his three wins, one in his loss.

Carrasco is 2-2, 4.60 in his four starts; six of his last seven stayed under.

Indians lost five of last six games; five of their last seven games went over the total. Blue Jays lost five of last seven games. Toronto won five of last seven games with Cleveland; under is 5-2-1 in last eight series games.

Bronx @ Red Sox
Sabathia is 0-4, 6.31 in his four starts; six of his last nine went over.

Masterson is 2-2, 5.16 in four starts, three of which went over.

Bronx is 5-3 in its last eight games with Boston; their last five games all went over the total. Bombers won seven of last nine games, with last three going under total. Red Sox are 3-5 in last eight games; five of last six went over.

A's @ Rangers
Kazmir is 2-0, 0.99 in his four starts; over is 5-1-1 in his last seven.

Lewis is 1-2, 3.75 in four starts; four of his last five stayed under.

Oakland lost six of last seven games, with last six going over- they lost six of last ten games with Texas; three of last four went over the total. Rangers lost six of last seven games, with five of last six staying under the total.

Mariners @ Astros
Elias is 1-3, 2.86 in his last seven starts; five of the seven stayed under.

Deduno has started 42 MLB games, nine LY; he's allowed three runs in 9.1 IP in five relief stints this season- this is his first 2015 start.

Houston is on a serious roll, winning seven in row, 11 of last 12: they've won seven of last nine games with Seattle- five of last seven series games went over, as have eight of last ten Astro games. Mariners won five of last eight games; seven of those eight stayed under the total.

Tigers @ Royals
Lobstein is 2-1, 3.50 in his three starts; three of his last four went over.

Young is making first '15 start; he's made 188 career starts in 10 years- he was 0-3, 9.82 in his last four starts LY. He is 1-0, 1.86 in 9.2 IP this year (5 games).

Detroit won four of last six games overall, seven of last 11 with Kansas City; seven of last ten series games stayed under total. Royals won four of last five home games- their last four games overall went over. Four of last five Detroit games went over the total.

White Sox @ Twins
Quintana is 1-1, 6.95 in his four starts this season.

Gibson is 1-2, 5.24 in his four starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five.

Chicago-Minnesota split last ten games; nine of last 11 series games went over. White Sox lost last three road games, outscored 29-5. Twins won four of their last six games- three of last four went over.

Interleague
Angels @ Giants
Wilson is 1-2, 3.46 in his four starts; three of the four stayed under.

Heston is 2-2, 3.81 in his four starts; under is 3-0-1 in the four games.

Angels won six of last seven games with the Giants; LA won five of their last seven games, with last four going over total. Giants won four of last five at home; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten games overall.

Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Mil-Chi-- Peralta 0-4; Lester 2-2
Wsh-NY-- Scherzer 2-2; Harvey 4-0
Phil-Mia-- Williams 3-1; Koehler 2-2
Cin-Atl-- DeSclafani 3-1; Foltynewicz 0-0
Pitt-StL-- Burnett 1-3; Lynn 1-3
Az-LA-- de la Rosa 2-2; Frias 0-0
Col-SD-- Butler 3-1; Kennedy 0-2

TB-Balt-- Colome 0-0; Tillman 2-2
Tor-Clev-- Buehrle 3-1; Carrasco 2-2
NY-Bos-- Sabathia 0-4; Masterson 3-1
A's-Tex-- Kazmir 2-2; Lewis 1-3
Sea-Hst-- Elias 0-1; Deduno 0-0
Det-KC-- Lobstein 2-1; Young 0-0
Chi-Minn-- Quintana 2-2; Gibson 2-2

LAA-SF-- Wilson 2-2; Heston 2-2

Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Mil-Chi-- Peralta 1-4; Lester 3-4
Wsh-NY-- Scherzer 1-4; Harvey 1-4
Phil-Mia-- Williams 2-4; Koehler 0-4
Cin-Atl-- DeSclafani 0-4; Foltynewicz 0-0
Pitt-StL-- Burnett 0-4; Lynn 0-4
Az-LA-- de la Rosa 2-4; Frias 0-0
Col-SD-- Butler 0-4; Kennedy 1-2

TB-Balt-- Colome 0-0; Tillman 1-4
Tor-Clev-- Buehrle 2-4; Carrasco 3-4
NY-Bos-- Sabathia 2-4; Masterson 1-4
A's-Tex-- Kazmir 0-4; Lewis 0-4
Sea-Hst-- Elias 1-1; Deduno 0-0
Det-KC-- Lobstein 2-3; Young 0-0
Chi-Minn-- Quintana 2-4; Gibson 1-4

LAA-SF-- Wilson 0-4; Heston 1-4

 

[CNOTES]

MLB

Friday, May 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2:20 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. CHI CUBS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 10 games when playing Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chi Cubs's last 9 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

7:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. BALTIMORE
Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games at home

7:10 PM
TORONTO vs. CLEVELAND
Toronto is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Toronto is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Cleveland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto

7:10 PM
NY YANKEES vs. BOSTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
NY Yankees are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing NY Yankees

7:10 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. MIAMI
Philadelphia is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Miami's last 15 games

7:10 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NY METS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets's last 6 games at home
NY Mets are 13-5 SU in its last 18 games

7:35 PM
CINCINNATI vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games at home

8:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. TEXAS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games
Oakland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Texas is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas's last 6 games

8:10 PM
SEATTLE vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing Houston
Seattle is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games

8:10 PM
DETROIT vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 10 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 12 games on the road
Kansas City is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
Kansas City is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Detroit

8:10 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games on the road
Chi White Sox are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

8:15 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
St. Louis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

10:10 PM
COLORADO vs. SAN DIEGO
Colorado is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
Colorado is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games

10:10 PM
ARIZONA vs. LA DODGERS
Arizona is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing LA Dodgers
Arizona is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games on the road
LA Dodgers are 11-5 SU in their last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona

10:15 PM
LA ANGELS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games
LA Angels are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Angels
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

 

[CNOTES]

MLB

Friday, May 1


Wind blowing in at Wrigley Field Friday

According to weather forecasts, wind will be blowing in from center field at Wrigley Field Friday afternoon as the Chicago Cubs host the Milwaukee Brewers.

At the time of writing, the total remained off the board and the Cubbies were priced at -175.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Dunkel

Friday, May 1

Atlanta Hawks @ Brooklyn Nets

Game 537-538
May 1, 2015 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta Hawks
125.846
Brooklyn Nets
112.389
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta Hawks
by 13 1/2
207
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta Hawks
by 3 1/2
200 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta Hawks
(-3 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, May 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (63 - 24) at BROOKLYN (40 - 47) - 5/1/2015, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 12-31 ATS (-22.1 Units) in road games in all playoff games since 1996.
ATLANTA is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in road games in the first round of the playoffs since 1996.
ATLANTA is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) when leading in a playoff series since 1996.
BROOKLYN is 55-37 ATS (+14.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 50-34 ATS (+12.6 Units) in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
ATLANTA is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points this season.
ATLANTA is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) on Friday nights this season.
ATLANTA is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
ATLANTA is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) after scoring 105 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 8-8 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 10-6 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
8 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, May 1

Home side won all five Brooklyn-Atlanta games in this series, as Hawks lost Games 3-4 here by 8-5 points. Hawks made 35 of 94 from arc, 49-61 on line in three home wins, but were 19-63 from arc, 23-32 on line in Game 3-4 losses. Johnson is just 29-81 in series, he had best game (7-15) last game. Hawks lost last four road games, all by 9 or less points. Brooklyn won its last three home games, by 13-8-5 points. Nets have to win to force a Game 7.

Home favorites are 15-14 in this round, home dogs are 5-5; home teams are 24-15 SU-- over is 17-22.

2015 playoffs
Brooklyn vs Atlanta
Atl 99-92, -10, U201.5
Atl 96-91, -9.5, U202
Brook 91-83, +3.5, U199
Brook 120-115 OT, +5, O198
Atl 107-97, -9, O200

Boston vs Cleveland
Clev 113-100, -11.5, O203
Clev 99-91, -11, U206
Clev 103-95, -4, U204
Clev 101-93, -6.5, U201.5
Cavaliers won series, 4-0

Milwaukee vs Chicago
Chi 103-91, -8, O186
Chi 91-82, -8, U190.5
Chi 113-106, 2OT, -2.5, O187
Mil 92-90, +4, U190
Mil 94-88, +8, U189
Chi 120-66, -3.5, U188.5
Bulls win series 4-2

Washington vs Toronto
Wash 93-86 OT, +4, U194.5
Wash 117-106, +5, O193.5
Wash 106-99, -4.5, O195.5
Wash 125-94, -6.5, O197.5
Wizards win series, 4-0

New Orleans vs Golden State
GSt 106-99, -12, U205
GSt 97-87, -13, U206.5
GSt 123-119 OT, -5, O203
GSt 109-98, -6.5, U208
Warriors win series, 4-0

Dallas vs Houston
Hst 118-108, -5.5, O212.5
Hst 111-99, -6.5, U214
Hst 130-128, +1, O214.5
Dal 121-109, +3, O218.5
Hst 103-94, -8, U221.5
Rockets win series, 4-1

San Antonio vs LA Clippers
LAC 107-92, -1.5, U207
SA 111-107 OT, +1.5, O207.5
SA 100-73, -5, U203.5
LAC 114-105, +6, O202.5
SA 111-107, +2.5, O203
LAC 102-96, +5.5, U206

Portland vs Memphis
Mem 100-86, -5.5, U188.5
Mem 97-82, -6, U189
Mem 115-109, +3.5, O189
Port 99-92, -4, U193
Mem 99-93, -6, O189.5
Grizzlies win series, 4-1

East vs West
SU: West 242-177 ATS: West 214-202-3
East teams HF vs West: 56-57
East teams HU vs West: 46-52
West teams HF vs East: 81-79-3
West teams HU vs East: 24-21




NBA

Friday, May 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. BROOKLYN
Atlanta is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Brooklyn is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Atlanta
Brooklyn is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home

 

[CNOTES]

NHL
Dunkel

Friday, May 1


Minnesota Wild @ Chicago Blackhawks

Game 53-54
May 1, 2015 @ 9:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota Wild
9.979
Chicago *********
11.475
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago *********
by 1 1/2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago *********
-140
5
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago *********
(-140); Under

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Montreal Canadiens

Game 57-58
May 1, 2015 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay Lightni
10.216
Montreal Canadien
13.274
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Montreal Canadien
by 3
4 1/2
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Montreal Canadien
-130
5
Dunkel Pick:
Montreal Canadien
(-130); Under




NHL
Long Sheet

Friday, May 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (50-30-0-8, 108 pts.) at CHICAGO (52-30-0-6, 110 pts.) - 5/1/2015, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 38-15 ATS (+9.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-11 ATS (+30.4 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5 or less this season.
MINNESOTA is 33-20 ATS (+7.2 Units) second half of the season this season.
MINNESOTA is 21-14 ATS (+5.9 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
MINNESOTA is 18-10 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
CHICAGO is 27-24 ATS (-22.0 Units) second half of the season this season.
CHICAGO is 56-66 ATS (-38.2 Units) in home games on Friday nights since 1996.
CHICAGO is 13-18 ATS (-18.2 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 15-9 (+1.9 Units) against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 15-9-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
11 of 21 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.3 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (54-27-0-8, 116 pts.) at MONTREAL (54-24-0-10, 118 pts.) - 5/1/2015, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 6-14 ATS (-10.9 Units) in road games after a win by 2 goals or more this season.
MONTREAL is 54-34 ATS (+10.9 Units) in all games this season.
MONTREAL is 48-29 ATS (+10.4 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 47-29 ATS (+9.2 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 20-10 ATS (+6.4 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more this season.
MONTREAL is 24-16 ATS (+3.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MONTREAL is 32-25 ATS (+57.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 11-2 ATS (+8.6 Units) in the second round of the playoffs since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 179-191 ATS (+409.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 8-8-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.5 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, May 1

Tampa Bay won its last five games with Montreal; five of last six series games went over total. Habs scored total of five goals in losing last three home games with Tampa Bay. Lightning won last two games to beat Detroit in seven games; last game was Wednesday- they've won four of last six at home. Canadiens haven't played since they beat Ottawa in Game 6 Sunday- they won three of their last four home games- three of their last four games stayed under total. Since they last won Stanley Cup in '93, Montreal is 2-4 in this round. In its franchise history, Tampa Bay is 1-2 in this round.

Minnesota won its last two games with Chicago after losing previous five; five of last seven games in series stayed under. Wild won three of last four games; they haven't played since Sunday- they gave up two or fewer goals in their last six wins. Chicago won three of last four games; five of their last six went over the total- they've been off since Saturday. Minnesota split its two appearances in the 2nd round. Chicago won last four series in this round; they won Stanley Cup in '10 and '13.

2015 NHL playoffs
Washington vs NY Rangers
Wash 2-1, +$143, U5

Tampa Bay vs Montreal

Calgary vs Anaheim
Ana 6-1, -$190, O5.5

Minnesota vs Chicago




NHL

Friday, May 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. MONTREAL
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Montreal
Montreal is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Montreal is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games

9:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing Chicago
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing Minnesota

 

[CNOTES]

NHL

Friday, May 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday's NHL Playoffs betting cheat sheet
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens (-124, 5)

The Tampa Bay Lightning were swept out of the postseason by Montreal a year ago but will get a shot to avenge that humbling defeat when they visit the Canadiens on Friday night in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series. The Lightning battled back from a 3-2 series deficit against Detroit to earn a rematch with Montreal, which edged out Tampa Bay by two points for the Atlantic Division title.

The Lightning dominated the regular season against the Canadiens, winning all five matchups by a combined 21-8 margin and posting three victories in Montreal. "We're probably the only team in the playoffs with home-ice advantage that's the underdog," said Canadiens coach Michel Therrien, whose team has been idle since eliminating Ottawa on Sunday in Game 6 of their opening-round series. Montreal goaltender Carey Price on Thursday was among three finalists named for the Hart Trophy, which goes to the league's most valuable player. He'll be opposed by Tampa Bay netminder Ben Bishop, who missed last season's four-game sweep due to a dislocated elbow.

LINE HISTORY: The Canadiens opened as -133 favorites, but have been bet down to -124. The total of 5 has not shifted since open.

ABOUT THE LIGHTNING: Bishop, who blanked Detroit in Wednesday's Game 7, could be the "X" factor for Tampa Bay after posting a career-high 40 victories and beating the Canadiens five times this season, allowing a total of eight goals. The Lightning do have two issues that need to be rectified: Their power play converted on only 2-of-30 chances against the Red Wings while captain Steven Stamkos, the NHL's second-leading goal scorer with 43, failed to tally in the series to stretch his postseason drought to 10 games. Tyler Johnson did most of the heavy lifting versus Detroit with a trio of two-goal games and has four tallies in eight career contests against Montreal.

ABOUT THE CANADIENS: Price established league highs in wins (44), goals-against average (1.96) and save percentage (.933) to become the first netminder to lead the NHL in all three categories since 1990-91, but he was torched for 16 goals in going 0-4-1 against the Lightning this season. Price had to come up big against Ottawa due to the struggles of Montreal's offense, which managed six regulation goals in the final five games and was woeful on the power play with one tally in 20 chances. "There’s really no one out there who can say they have a good power play and it’s making the difference for them," defenseman P.K. Subban said. "But, we know that it can be the difference as the playoffs go on.”

TRENDS:

*Lightning are 8-0 in their last 8 Conference Semifinals games.
*Canadiens are 5-0 in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
*Over is 6-1-2 in the last 9 meetings.
*Under is 4-0 in Lightning last 4 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.



Minnesota Wild at Chicago Blackhawks (-128, 5)

The Minnesota Wild are hoping the third time truly is a charm when they open their Western Conference semifinal series against the Chicago Blackhawks at United Center on Friday. Minnesota has been eliminated by Chicago in each of the last two postseasons, dropping a first-round matchup in five games in 2013 and falling in last year's conference semifinals in six contests.

The Wild enter this matchup having knocked off the Central Division champion for the second straight time, defeating St. Louis in six games after ousting Colorado in seven last postseason. Chicago is coming off a hard-fought first-round triumph over Nashville in six games, with one contest going to double overtime and another needing three extra sessions - both won by the Blackhawks. One of three Original Six teams remaining in the playoffs, Chicago won all three of its home games versus the Predators while being led by captain Jonathan Toews, who finished the first round leading the league in scoring with eight points - including three goals. The Blackhawks will turn back to Corey Crawford, who gave way to Scott Darling after starting the first two games against Nashville before coming on in relief in Game 7 and notching the decisive victory.

LINE HISTORY: The 'Hawks opened as -135 before dropping to -128. the opening total of 5 has remained steady.

ABOUT THE WILD: Minnesota is counting on Vezina and Masterton Trophy finalist Devan Dubnyk to continue his superb play against Chicago. The 28-year-old turned aside 56-of-57 shots in helping the Wild win the final two meetings of the regular season after dropping the first three of the five-game series. "He definitely gives us a lot of confidence," Wild forward Kyle Brodziak said of Dubnyk, who went 27-9-2 with five shutouts and a 1.78 goals-against average after being acquired from Arizona. "He came and calmed things down and let us get back to our game. We feel very confident with him back there."

ABOUT THE BLACKHAWKS: Chicago nearly went scoreless in its two regular-season encounters with Dubnyk, as Bryan Bickell scored with 1:48 remaining in the third period of a 2-1 loss on April 7. The Blackhawks know they have a tough task ahead if they hope to advance to the conference final for the second straight postseason and fourth in the last six years. "He is one of the strengths in their game," forward Marcus Kruger said of the netminder. "He's been great for them since he's been there. I know that is something we need to talk about, to find a way to score on him."

TRENDS:

*Wild are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago.
*Blackhawks are 2-5 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
*Over is 4-1-3 in Wild last 8 overall.
*Under is 12-4-3 in Blackhawks last 19 games following a win.

 

[CNOTES]

Cheat Sheet - Conference Semis


April 30, 2015




Chicago Blackhawks vs. Minnesota Wild


Blackhawks: 13-8 SU Last 21 Meetings (Reg Season & Playoffs)
Blackhawks: 8-3 SU & 4-5-2 O/U vs Wild Last 2 Postseasons
Blackhawks: Won First Home Game in 8 Consecutive Series


Wild: Won 14 of Last 16 Road Contests
Wild: Won First Home Game in Each Playoff Meeting
Wild: Won Last 2 Regular Season Meetings this year


Betting Trends:
-- Underdogs are 2-9 Last 11 Playoff Meetings


Anaheim Ducks vs. Calgary Flames


Ducks: 14-6 SU Last 20 Meetings
Ducks: Scored 4 or more goals in 3 of last 4 games
Ducks: Haven't Lost at Home to Flames since 2006


Flames: 3-7 O/U Last 10 with 5.5 total
Flames: 5-1 ATS including 3-0 as Puck-Line Favorite
Flames: 4-0 SU & ATS Last 4 Home Games


Betting Trends:
-- Over is 6-3 Last 9 Meetings
-- In 5 games this year, Over is 4-1 with 3 of those games reaching 9 total goals


Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning


Lightning: Won All 5 Meetings in Regular Season
Lightning: On a 2-4-1 O/U Run Last 7 Games


Canadiens: Swept Lightning in 2014 First Round Match-up
Canadiens: Failed to Convert 22 of Last 23 Power-Plays


New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals


Rangers: 20-4 SU as a Favorite vs Division Opponents
Rangers: 7-1 SU Last 8 Games as a Favorite
Rangers: 8-2 SU Last 10 Meetings


Capitals: 3-7 O/U Last 10 Games


Betting Trends:
-- Under is 12-5-3 Last 20 Meetings
-- Road Underdogs are 6-3 Last 9 Meetings

 

[CNOTES]

Team Open Line Movements Current Moneyline Halftime Scores


8:05 PM EDT
537 ATLANTA HAWKS -4.5 -13 -4 -05 / -3.5 / -3.5 -12 -3.5 -15 -170
FREE
538 BROOKLYN NETS 200o05 200u14 / 199.5 / 199.5u14 199 +145 HOT PICK
TV: ESPN, DTV: 206

 

[CNOTES]

Team Pitcher Open Line Movements Current Runline Scores


2:20 PM EDT
951 MILWAUKEE BREWERS (R) Peralta, W 7.5u25 7.5u25 7.5u20 +1.5(-135)
FREE
952 CHICAGO CUBS (L) Lester, J -170 -187 / -195 / -200 -195 -1.5(+115) HOT PICK
MIL-CF-Carlos Gomez-OUT | TV: CSN-Chicago, FS-Wisconsin, DTV: 665, 669 | PARTLY CLOUDY, WIND IN FROM CENTER 5-10. GAME TEMP 63, RH 36%
FREE MATCH UP5-STAR PICKSTOP POWER LINESVEGAS ODDSFREE PICKSBOX SCORERECAPLINEUPSPROJECTIONSBET NOW


7:10 PM EDT
953 WASHINGTON NATIONALS (R) Scherzer, M 6 -101 / -105 / -106 -105 -1.5(+160)
954 NEW YORK METS (R) Harvey, M -120 6 / 6o20 / 6o15 6u16 +1.5(-190)
TV: MASN, SNY, DTV: 639, 640 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, WIND RIGHT TO LEFT 5-10. GAME TEMP 56, RH 52%
FREE MATCH UP5-STAR PICKSTOP POWER LINESVEGAS ODDSFREE PICKSBOX SCORERECAPLINEUPSPROJECTIONSBET NOW


7:10 PM EDT
955 PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (R) Williams, J 8u15 8u15 8o15 +1.5(-165)
956 MIAMI MARLINS (R) Koehler, T -165 -165 / -155 / -145 -146 -1.5(+145)
TV: FS-Florida, DTV: 654 | PARTLY CLOUDY, WIND OUT TO CENTER 3-8. GAME TEMP 79, RH 45% HEAT INDEX 80
FREE MATCH UP5-STAR PICKSTOP POWER LINESVEGAS ODDSFREE PICKSBOX SCORERECAPLINEUPSPROJECTIONSBET NOW


7:35 PM EDT
957 CINCINNATI REDS (R) Desclafani, A -120 -126 / -119 / -116 -121 -1.5(+140)
958 ATLANTA BRAVES (R) Foltynewicz, M 7.5u15 7o15 / 7o20 / 7o21 7o20 +1.5(-160)
TV: FS-Ohio, DTV: 661 | PARTLY CLOUDY, WIND IN FROM LEFT 3-8. GAME TEMP 66, RH 40%
FREE MATCH UP5-STAR PICKSTOP POWER LINESVEGAS ODDSFREE PICKSBOX SCORERECAPLINEUPSPROJECTIONSBET NOW


8:15 PM EDT
959 PITTSBURGH PIRATES (R) Burnett, A 7.5u25 7.5u25 +1.5(-175)
960 ST LOUIS CARDINALS (R) Lynn, L -140 -140 / -146 / -145 -140 -1.5(+155)
TV: FS-Midwest, ROOT-Pittsburgh, DTV: 659, 671 | MOSTLY FAIR, WIND RIGHT TO LEFT 2-7. GAME TEMP 68, RH 32%
FREE MATCH UP5-STAR PICKSTOP POWER LINESVEGAS ODDSFREE PICKSBOX SCORERECAPLINEUPSPROJECTIONSBET NOW


10:10 PM EDT
961 ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (R) De La Rosa, R 8 8 8u20 +1.5(-160)
962 LOS ANGELES DODGERS (R) Frias, C -150 -150 / -153 / -152 -145 -1.5(+140)
TV: FS-Arizona, DTV: 686 | CLEAR, WIND OUT TO RIGHT 4-9. GAME TEMP 61, RH 83%
FREE MATCH UP5-STAR PICKSTOP POWER LINESVEGAS ODDSFREE PICKSBOX SCORERECAPLINEUPSPROJECTIONSBET NOW


10:10 PM EDT
963 COLORADO ROCKIES (R) Butler, E 7u20 7o17 / 7o20 / 7o25 7.5u20 +1.5(-175)
964 SAN DIEGO PADRES (R) Kennedy, I -150 -150 / -145 -140 -1.5(+155)
TV: FS-San Diego, DTV: 694 | CLEAR, WIND IN FROM LEFT 3-8. GAME TEMP 68, RH 67%
FREE MATCH UP5-STAR PICKSTOP POWER LINESVEGAS ODDSFREE PICKSBOX SCORERECAPLINEUPSPROJECTIONSBET NOW


7:05 PM EDT
965 TAMPA BAY RAYS (R) Colome, A -125 -115 / -112 / -109 -107 -1.5(+150)
966 BALTIMORE ORIOLES (R) Tillman, C 8 8u20 / 8u19 / 8u15 8o15 +1.5(-170)
TV: MASN2, SunSports, DTV: 641, 653 | Dome
FREE MATCH UP5-STAR PICKSTOP POWER LINESVEGAS ODDSFREE PICKSBOX SCORERECAPLINEUPSPROJECTIONSBET NOW


7:10 PM EDT
967 TORONTO BLUE JAYS (L) Buehrle, M 8u15 7.5 / 7.5u20 / 7.5u15 7.5u20 +1.5(-210)
968 CLEVELAND INDIANS (R) Carrasco, C -130 -116 / -118 / -115 -113 -1.5(+180)
TV: SportsTime Ohio, DTV: 662 | FAIR, WIND IN FROM CENTER 5-10. GAME TEMP 61, RH 47%
FREE MATCH UP5-STAR PICKSTOP POWER LINESVEGAS ODDSFREE PICKSBOX SCORERECAPLINEUPSPROJECTIONSBET NOW


7:10 PM EDT
969 NEW YORK YANKEES (L) Sabathia, C 8.5o20 9u21 / 9u20 / 8.5o15 8.5o20 +1.5(-205)
970 BOSTON RED SOX (R) Masterson, J -130 -115 / -112 / -119 -114 -1.5(+175)
TV: NESN, YES, DTV: 628, 631 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, WIND IN FROM RIGHT 3-8. GAME TEMP 48, RH 65%
FREE MATCH UP5-STAR PICKSTOP POWER LINESVEGAS ODDSFREE PICKSBOX SCORERECAPLINEUPSPROJECTIONSBET NOW


8:05 PM EDT
971 OAKLAND ATHLETICS (L) Kazmir, S -135 -145 / -143 / -148 -151 -1.5(+110)
972 TEXAS RANGERS (R) Lewis, C 8.5 8.5 / 8.5u12 8.5u15 +1.5(-130)
TEX-P-Yu Darvish-OUT | TV: CSN-California, FS-Southwest, DTV: 676, 698 | FAIR, WIND IN FROM CENTER 3-8. GAME TEMP 81, RH 36% HEAT INDEX 80
FREE MATCH UP5-STAR PICKSTOP POWER LINESVEGAS ODDSFREE PICKSBOX SCORERECAPLINEUPSPROJECTIONSBET NOW


8:10 PM EDT
973 SEATTLE MARINERS (L) Elias, R 8.5o20 +100 / -104 -112 -1.5(+145)
974 HOUSTON ASTROS (R) Deduno, S -120 8.5o20 / 8.5o25 8.5o20 +1.5(-165)
TV: FS-Southwest, ROOT-Northwest, DTV: 676, 687 | MOSTLY FAIR, WIND OUT TO CENTER 3-8. GAME TEMP 73, RH 25% WIND CHILL 0 (MINUTE MAID PARK ROOF MAY CLOSE IN COLD WEATHER)
FREE MATCH UP5-STAR PICKSTOP POWER LINESVEGAS ODDSFREE PICKSBOX SCORERECAPLINEUPSPROJECTIONSBET NOW


8:10 PM EDT
975 DETROIT TIGERS (L) Lobstein, K 8.5o20 8.5o15 / 8.5o20 / 9u20 8.5 +1.5(-190)
976 KANSAS CITY ROYALS (R) Young, C -120 -119 / -115 / -116 -117 -1.5(+160)
TV: FS-Detroit, FS-Kansas City, DTV: 663, 672 | MOSTLY FAIR, WIND OUT TO LEFT 4-9. GAME TEMP 76, RH 30% HEAT INDEX 74
FREE MATCH UP5-STAR PICKSTOP POWER LINESVEGAS ODDSFREE PICKSBOX SCORERECAPLINEUPSPROJECTIONSBET NOW


8:10 PM EDT
977 CHICAGO WHITE SOX (L) Quintana, J 8 -112 / -110 / -112 -109 -1.5(+145)
978 MINNESOTA TWINS (R) Gibson, K -107 8 8o20 +1.5(-165)
TV: CSN-Chicago, FS-North, DTV: 665, 668 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, 20% CHANCE LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY. WIND RIGHT TO LEFT 6-11. GAME TEMP 59, RH 72%
FREE MATCH UP5-STAR PICKSTOP POWER LINESVEGAS ODDSFREE PICKSBOX SCORERECAPLINEUPSPROJECTIONSBET NOW


10:15 PM EDT
979 LOS ANGELES ANGELS (L) Wilson, C 7u25 7u11 / 7u15 / 7u16 7u15 +1.5(-215)
980 SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (R) Heston, C -125 -107 / -114 / -115 -117 -1.5(+185)
LAA-1B-Albert Pujols-OUT | TV: CSN-Bay, FS-West, DTV: 692, 696 | FAIR, WIND OUT TO RIGHT CENTER 7-12. GAME TEMP 63, RH 64%

 

[CNOTES]

Team Open Line Movements Current Puck Line Scores

9:35 PM EDT
53 MINNESOTA WILD 5u20 5u20 5 +1.5(-260)
FREE
54 CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS -140 -140 -135 -1.5(+215) HOT PICK
CHI-G-Corey Crawford-Probable | TV: NBCS, DTV: 220
FREE MATCH UP5-STAR PICKSTOP POWER LINESVEGAS ODDSFREE PICKSBOX SCORERECAPBET NOW


7:05 PM EDT
57 TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING 5u20 5u22 / 5 / 5u20 5u25 +1.5(-275)
58 MONTREAL CANADIENS -135 -135 -125 -1.5(+230)
TV: NBCS, DTV: 220
FREE MATCH UP5-STAR PICKSTOP POWER LINESVEGAS ODDSFREE PICKSBOX SCORERECAPBET NOW

 

[CNOTES]

MLB EARLY START:


Friday, May 1


Game Score Status Pick Amount


Milwaukee - 2:20 PM ET Chi. Cubs -195 500 *****


Chi. Cubs - Under 7.5 500 *****

 

[CNOTES]

MLB EARLY GAMES:


Date WLT Pct Net Units Record


05/01/15 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail


Totals 2-*0-*0 100.00% +1000

 

[CNOTES]

Friday, May 1


Game Score Status Pick Amount


Tampa Bay - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore -102 500
Baltimore - Over 8 500 *****


NY Yankees - 7:10 PM ET NY Yankees +111 500
Boston - Over 8.5 500 *****


Toronto - 7:10 PM ET Toronto +123 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Cleveland - Over 7.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY


Philadelphia - 7:10 PM ET Philadelphia +136 500
Miami - Over 8 500


Washington - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets -113 500 *****
NY Mets - Under 6 500


Cincinnati - 7:35 PM ET Cincinnati -121 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Atlanta - Over 7 500


Oakland - 8:05 PM ET Texas +134 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Texas - Under 8.5 500


Chi. White Sox - 8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox -111 500 GRAND SLAM
Minnesota - Over 8 500


Detroit - 8:10 PM ET Kansas City -118 500 GRAND SLAM
Kansas City - Under 8.5 500


Seattle - 8:10 PM ET Houston +102 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Houston - Over 8.5 500


Pittsburgh - 8:15 PM ET Pittsburgh +131 500 *****
St. Louis - Over 7.5 500


Arizona - 10:10 PM ET Arizona +136 500
LA Dodgers - Under 8 500


Colorado - 10:10 PM ET San Diego -138 500 DOUBLE PLAY
San Diego - Under 7.5 500


LA Angels - 10:15 PM ET LA Angels +111 500 GRAND SLAM
San Francisco - Over 7 500

 

[CNOTES]

2015 playoffs


Brooklyn vs Atlanta


Atl 99-92, -10, U201.5


Atl 96-91, -9.5, U202


Brook 91-83, +3.5, U199


Brook 120-115 OT, +5, O198


Atl 107-97, -9, O200


Friday, May 1


Game Score Status Pick Amount


Atlanta - 8:00 PM ET Brooklyn +4.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY


Brooklyn - Over 199 500 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Friday, May 1


Game Score Status Pick Amount


Tampa Bay - 7:00 PM ET Tampa Bay +106 500 DOUBLE PLAY


Montreal - Over 5 500 DOUBLE PLAY


Minnesota - 9:30 PM ET Minnesota +122 500 DOUBLE PLAY


Chicago - Over 5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

FOR THOSE WHO WANT SOME INFOR ON THE DERBY......I'LL POST THIS HERE AND PICKS ON HORSES THREAD.....


Kentucky Derby Breakdown


May 1, 2015




Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the field for the 141st Kentucky Derby!


Kentucky Derby Odds


2015 BREAKDOWN


PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Derby Record) Trainer (Derby Record)


1 - Ocho Ocho Ocho 50/1 Elvis Trujillo (0-1) Jim Cassidy (0-2)


Notes: Someone gets stuck with the dreaded rail draw every year and unfortunately for his connections he got stuck with it this year. He came into this season undefeated in three starts and had some steam but he just hasn’t lived up to his expectations. He had an excuse in the San Felipe but none last out when he set easy fractions in the Blue Grass. And now this. I was never a fan and I’m certainly not now.


2 - Carpe Diem 8/1 John Velazquez (1-16) Todd Pletcher (1-40)


Notes: The first of three from Pletcher, he could very well be the best of the Todd Squad this year. His lone defeat in five starts came in the B.C, Juvenile where he finished second so it’s obvious that he has a ton of talent. However, his two biggest wins, the Breeders’ Futurity and Blue Grass last out, came at Keeneland and Pletcher decided that this colt loved in there so much that he kept him there until early this week to train for this race while the rest of his runners were at Churchill. It could be that he’s a good horse overall but an exceptional one at Keeneland. The draw adds to the conundrum because you’d think he’s going to have to leave a bit harder from the gate than Johnny V. would have liked. If he doesn’t, he runs the risk of getting shuffled back going into the first turn frenzy. And he has a history of being problematic at the gate and will be in there an awfully long time while the rest of them load. Factor in Pletcher’s terrible Derby record and I can’t endorse him to win the race but will use him on the bottom end of my exotic wagers based mainly on his ability.


3 – Materiality 12/1 Javier Castellano (0-8) Todd Pletcher (1-40)


Notes: He is famously looking to become the first horse to win the Derby without having run as a juvenile since Apollo did so in 1882. He’s run just three times and while he has won them all and sports the highest Beyer Speed Figure of any runner in this event, I feel like he has certainly benefited from others’ misfortunes. In his second start, fellow Derby runner/stablemate Stanford bore out on the backside and made his job a whole lot easier while I think he should have been DQed in his latest, the Florida Derby, for interference with Upstart in the stretch. His connections win everything in sight but haven’t had the greatest success here. Like Carpe Diem, the post position does him no favor but it’s not as bad since he figured to be a part of the expected hot pace even before they drew the pills. Ultimately, I think his lack of seasoning will do him in against this salty bunch but wouldn’t hold using him in your exotics against you.


4 – Tencendur 30/1 Manny Franco (Debut) George Weaver (Debut)


Notes: One of three New York breds in here looking to follow in the steps of 2003 Derby winner Funny Cide, the only horse bred in the Empire State to win the Derby thus far. Like 2005 winner Giacomo, this guy comes into this still eligible for an entry level allowance contest. Weaver added blinkers two starts back in the Gotham and he took a ton of action but was inexplicably taken off the pace. Last out he was involved much earlier on and he ran a bang up second behind Frosted in the Wood Memorial. Still, he lacks accomplishments and his pedigree is suspect, to put it nicely, in regards to getting this trip. He’s not for me.


5 – Danzig Moon 30/1 Julien Leparoux (0-7) Mark Casse (0-7)


Notes: Another with just a maiden tally under his belt from five starts, he’s gotten a lot of attention in Louisville this past week as many are impressed with his appearance and how he has trained. He’s chased Carpe Diem in his last two, the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass, and needs to make up several lengths on him to even think about being a major player in here. Frankly, I’ve never been a fan and don’t understand all of the attention. Even if you’re a longshot player there are far more attractive options in here. I’m passing.


6 – Mubtaahij 20/1 Christophe Soumillon (Debut) Mike de Kock (Debut)


Notes: Ships in from Dubai looking to become the first horse to win the Derby via the UAE Derby. He’s four for five on dirt, beat older horses as a juvenile in his maiden win and has won twice at 1 3/16 miles. The last horse to win twice past nine furlongs going into this was Canonero II back in 1971 and he was victorious. He sat behind a wall of speed horses last out, took dirt for about six furlongs then exploded home to win by eight lengths once he was shown daylight. He admittedly didn’t beat much and his time was ordinary but he looked amazing doing it. He’s trained by one of the sharpest guy in the world who has won races on four different continents. He’s handled all of the travel brilliantly, has put the weight that he lost back on since his arrival and should work out a fantastic trip from this post. I think he’ll come down from that big morning line price but will still be between 12-1 and 15-1.


7 - El Kabeir 30/1 Calvin Borel (3-12) John Terranova, III( 0-1)


Notes: Was one of the feel-good stories of the winter as Chuckie Lopez subbed for Borel in the Jerome, won, then did a fine job with him all winter long before getting sacked by Zayat after the third place finish in the Wood Memorial. This colt toughed it out all winter in NY and missed some training because of the weather but still ran four times and ran well. Kudos to Terranova. Unfortunately, this isn’t the inner track at Aqueduct and Frosted handled him easily last out. He does own a win over the course but a lot, mainly his change in running style from a front runner to a closer, has changed since then and I just think he’s a cut or two below the best ones in here.


8 – Dortmund 3/1 Martin Garcia (0-3) Bob Baffert (3-24)


Notes: He’s a perfect six for six, has won at three different racetracks, including this one, at four different distances from on the lead and off the pace. He’s a monster in stature, his sire Big Brown won the race in 2008 and is trained by a Hall of Famer with three Derby wins under his belt. There really wasn’t anything not to like until this week when he started misbehaving while schooling in the Churchill paddock. He acted up Wednesday and again on Thursday to a lesser degree, actions that will make Baffert saddle him on the walking path and not in a paddock stall. It makes you wonder: if he’s pulling some antics in front of a few hundred people, what’s going to happen when 140,000 people are singing My Old Kentucky Home? Now, I’m not going to tell you to toss him because of it. He’s a real contender in here, if not the entire Triple Crown. If you play multi-race wagers, he is a must use. If you don’t and you’re just betting the race itself, keep an eye on him wherever you watch the race. Listen to what people are saying on radio, TV, social media and act accordingly. But throw him completely out at your own peril.


9 – Bolo 30/1 Rafael Bejarano (0-9) Carla Gaines (0-1)


Notes: Made a serious run at Dortmund in the San Felipe, his first start on dirt and off a 10 week layoff then couldn’t muster a solid rally when third in the Santa Anita Derby last out, an effort that in part led his trainer and his former rider Mike Smith, who won two turf races aboard him, to say he was better suited for the turf. That’s enough for me to be turned off. Only reason he is here is because the owners have Derby Fever and that is the worst reason of all to run. I’m passing on him.


10 - Firing Line 12/1 Gary Stevens (3-20) Simon Callaghan (Debut)


Notes: He’s the only horse in here trying to win off of a six week break between races, an angle I am not fond of. Plus, he’s only run twice this year. He did give Dortmund all he could handle in the Los Alamitos Futurity and the Robert Lewis, a race in which he actually opened up a length lead in the stretch before his foe came back to get him along the rail. Callaghan was so annoyed at losing two decisions by a head that he got his charge away from Dortmund and took him to New Mexico, where he promptly won the Sunland Derby by a stones’ throw. My issues are his running style, since I think he does his best running on the front end which is already plenty crowded and his pedigree, which isn’t very appealing. He does get Stevens but I am really turned off by the amount of time between races. I’m gonna pass.


11 – Stanford SCR SCRATCHED SCRATCHED


Notes: He’ll be scratched and will point towards the Peter Pan at Belmont on May 8th or the Preakness on May 15th at Pimlico.


12 - International Star 20/1 Miguel Mena (0-1) Mike Maker (0-8)


Notes: He led all runners in Derby points with 171 after winning all three of his preps this year down at the Fair Grounds. He showed his cool when he was able to get himself off of the rail to win the LeComte once outside of horses, his courage when he made his way through an opening along the rail to win by a length and his determination last out when Stanford dug his heels in before he finally got to the money in the Louisiana Derby. Those are all tremendous qualities in a racehorse, especially one running for the roses. He’s a tad on the slow side and I’m not enamored with his connections in this spot but I’m willing to look past those things because of his other redeeming qualities. His sire won this in 2000 and he’s always gaining ground at the end of his races so the distance shouldn’t be an issue. Using him in all of my exotic wagers.


13 – Itsaknockout 30/1 Luis Saez (0-2) Todd Pletcher (1-40)


Notes: I’ll give his connections this: they’ve done a great job at getting him some exposure by having him wear a blanket promoting the Mayweather fight, with his name and all. He was technically undefeated going into the Florida Derby but I think the disqualification of Upstart in the Fountain of Youth, one that resulted in this guy getting the win, was a joke. And I think that point was proven last time when he finished nearly 20 lengths behind his rival. Based on his last two starts, it looks like a one turn mile will be his best game. The Pat Day Mile on the undercard would have been a great spot for him but, once again, Derby Fever kicked in. An easy toss.


14 - Keen Ice 50/1 Kent Desormeaux (3-18) Dale Romans (0-5)


Notes: He’s won just one of his seven starts and finished third in two others, including the Risen Star two starts back. He comes from far back and should benefit from the probable hot pace, plus his pedigree cries out for this trip. Also, his lone win came at Churchill Downs. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he is slow, he exits some of the slower preps and is getting his sixth different rider, albeit one that has won three of these. Normally, I like to see some consistency and continuity when it comes to horses I use in the Derby and while I doubt he can win this I feel like he can grab a share based on his running style. Using him on the bottom half of my exotics.


15 – Frosted 15/1 Joel Rosario (1-5) Kiaran McLaughlin (0-5)


Notes: I can’t say enough about the job McLaughlin did with him between the Fountain of Youth and the Wood Memorial. He turned for home in the Fountain of Youth with a two length lead and appeared to be on cruise control. 15 seconds later he was fourth. So Kiaran deconstructed this colt. He discovered a breathing problem so he had a minor, common throat surgery performed. He fiddled with the newly added blinkers. He changed riders to Rosario. The result: a hand ride victory in the Wood Memorial where he closed from last into a slow pace while racing widest of all. The scratch moves him from the first stall of the auxiliary gate to the last stall of the main gate but that shouldn’t be an issue since he’ll still have a bit of wiggle room leaving out of there. It’ll just be on his right side as opposed to his left. His outside draw was key, in my opinion, because he doesn’t seem to like being inside of horses. That shouldn’t be a problem from this post. I’m using him in all of my wagers, especially at that price.


16 - War Story 50/1 Joe Talamo (0-1) Tom Amoss (0-3)


Notes: Boy, did I love this guy earlier in the year. He won both of his starts last year, then ran a good second in the LeComte before a wide trip in the Risen Star where he had to settle for place money again. He was primed to turn the tables on International Star in the Louisiana Derby. He broke well, was in contention and appeared poised to pounce on the far turn and then….nothing. He didn’t fire one bit. I watched the replay a few times and I’ve come to the conclusion that he just doesn’t want any part of the distance. AND they are taking the blinkers off, a big no-no in my book. Why would you make an equipment change in the Kentucky Derby? He’s not getting any of my money.


17 - Mr. Z 50/1 Ramon Vazquez (Debut) D Wayne Lukas (4-47)


Notes: You know, maybe Zayat will scratch him and El Kabeir so American Pharoah can move in a couple of spots. That would be the smartest thing they could do. Scratch. This horse doesn’t belong and the only reason he is here is because his owner and trainer have enormous egos and just love seeing their names in those proverbial lights. Nothing more than a pace player.


18 - American Pharoah 5/2 Victor Espinoza (2-6) Bob Baffert (3-24)


Notes: Your morning line favorite is a three time grade 1 winner and comes into this off of a pair of blowout scores at Oaklawn in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, a race in which he sat off a pacesetter for the first time in his career. He’s getting all of the attention, with folks in his home state of California going as far as to compare him to Seattle Slew, a horse who went through the Triple Crown undefeated in 1977. I think they’re out of their minds. This horse hasn’t really beaten much, something you can say about all of them, but the difference is he’s 5/2 on the board and the rest are going to be much higher. He’s been racing and training in a shoe that has a bar on it to protect part of the injured hoof that forced him to miss the B.C. Juvenile last year. His connections are downplaying it, going as far as to say it’s not a big deal or even a bar shoe. But it is and it is. They’ve been playing catch-up all year, as Baffert crammed a bunch of works into him in February in order to have him ready for the Rebel. This will be his third race in seven weeks after being off over five months and they want him to go this distance with a bar shoe. I’m not saying he’s not an excellent mover or that he isn’t talented. He absolutely is. I probably don’t think as highly of him as most do but he is a good horse. I just think this is too much to ask of him. This field offers a ton of value and is as deep as they come. Using him on the bottom of my exotics based solely on his raw ability but I’m hoping he’s off the board.


19 – Upstart 15/1 Jose Ortiz (0-1) Rick Violette, Jr. (0-2)


Notes: Another who came into the season with a large bandwagon and they had to be ecstatic after his daylight score to start the year in the Holy Bull. But things have gotten strange since. He looked beat on the far turn in the Fountain of Youth before eventually picking up the pieces to win by almost three lengths but was erroneously disqualified from the win. Things got even stranger in the Florida Derby when he was interfered with in the stretch and the stewards didn’t even look at it while his rider was told he was too late to claim foul. Needless to say the Gulfstream Park stewards and this guy’s connections won’t be sending Christmas cards to each other this year. My biggest problems with him are the fact that he had every chance to get by Materiality last time before getting bothered but couldn’t and he missed some time a few weeks back after spiking a fever. Everything needs to go perfectly this time of year and they haven’t. For those reasons, I’m out.


20 - Far Right 30/1 Mike Smith (1-20) Ron Moquett (Debut)


Notes: Looked good winning his first two starts of the year from far back at Arkansas and has shown the ability to get through traffic and win along the inside, great qualities in such a large field. His deep closer running style fits Smith, who won this in that manner with Giacomo back in 2005 at 50-1, and the post is no big deal because of it. American Pharoah beat him by eight lengths last out but Smith said he wasn’t going to catch the winner so he made sure he got the place money and the points. He’s run three times over the course, including a maiden tally and should benefit from the hot pace. Would need everything to break perfectly to win it, and I’m not saying he will, but stranger things have happened. Using him in all of my exotic wagers.


21 – Frammento 50/1 Corey Nakatani (0-17) Nick Zito (2-25)


Notes: Zito really wanted to get him in and got his wish when Pletcher scratched Stanford Thursday afternoon. He’s won just once in seven tries but has run better since adding blinkers two back when he was third in the Fountain of Youth and the only horse really running at the end. Zito has been saying he is a true 10 furlong horse. I will use him on the bottom half of my exotics.


22 – Tale of Verve AE B.J. Hernandez, Jr. (Debut) Dallas Stewart (0-2)


Notes: From the trainer that brought you your last two longshot Derby runner-ups, Golden Soul and Commanding Curve, he finally broke his maiden in start six last out going 1 3/16 miles at Keeneland. Wasn’t even mentioned in the same breath as the Derby until entry day. I can see why. He needs another scratch to get in and about 15 more after that to have a chance at hitting the board.