Wednesday's Betting Notes
April 22, 2015
Trending Up
-- I just can’t stop raving about the Mets, my main breakout team for 2015. It’s just incredible how sudden their transformation has occurred. Yesterday, they pushed their remarkable winning streak to nine -- amazingly all against divisional opponents -- and that’s even while dealing with injuries. They had to place their unofficial captain David Wright on the disabled list last week, and just recently lost catcher Travis d’Arnaud, who was enjoying a phenomenal start to the year, and a key part of their late-inning relief corps, Jerry Blevins. Even so, the Amazins are still rolling with no signs of letting up. They’ve done with it with excellent balance on both sides of the ball, being top ten in baseball in runs scored on offense, while receiving the expected outstanding pitching from their starting rotation. While New York was carrying a streak of six consecutive losing seasons into 2015, this run should be seen as no surprise whatsoever, as they even showed signs last year of a potential break-out. Now, it has come to fruition, and it certainly helps having ace Matt Harvey back lead the way in such a confident manner. Interestingly, the Mets’ offense has been so active that they’re actually 9-4 towards Over bets, and as a result, aren’t the dependable Under team they’ve been in recent years. Their getting timely and consistent production throughout the lineup, and as long as the linesmakers continue to attach them to the same lines as in past seasons -- hovering around 7-ish -- then that’s a trend that can continue, as the Mets continue their pursuit of reaching the postseason for the first time since ’06.
-- With another win last night, the Padres continue to prove that they’re for real, thanks in large part to their very active offseason conducted by new general manager A.J. Preller. They were my bold pick to surprise everyone and actually dethrone the Dodgers in winning the NL West this year, although I didn’t expect it to formulate this quickly, but San Diego already looks like the real deal in only the first couple of weeks-and-change of the season. There are several reasons for their quick ascension to the upper echelon of the league, but I’ll provide you with arguably the most telling stat of all: Last season, the Padres had 15 home runs as a team through the first two months of the campaign. This season? They already have 14 home runs in less than three weeks! It was painfully obvious that San Diego could contend if they could just improve their previously dreadful offense that consistently had them in last in most major offensive categories in recent years, all while maintaining very solid pitching from their starters and relievers, so credit Preller for recognizing that right away and making the necessary changes. Also of note, most of the Padres’ 10-5 record has come opposite their fellow NL West residents, whom they are 8-4 again thus far. As they continue to streak, San Diego has built up a ton of confidence and should remain a safe, consistent bet through the foreseeable future. Additionally, they have one of the best records for Overs at 10-4-1 -- a complete turnaround from years’ past when they were one of the most dependable constants for Unders in all of sports.
-- I could use this space to break down the surging Tigers and Royals, shareholders of the best record in MLB, but we'll go over the similarly trending Cubs instead. Is their 8-5 start evidence that they are going to live up to the hype throughout 2015? Being one of my picks to break out this year, this is a no-brainer - the Cubs are for real and should continue their winning ways. Their outlook can safely be tied to the development of their youngsters, such as Kris Bryant, who debuted less than a week ago but has already made a notable impact at the plate and with the glove. Jorge Soler has also looked like he's in the midst a very god first full season in the big leagues, and now fellow top prospect Addison Russell has arrived. Their starting pitching has been steady, anchored by one of my sleeper picks of a year ago, Jake Arrieta, and that's even with struggles from new ace Jon Lester. Once he finally gets into normal form, Chicago will be even more dangerous. But they're having a lot of fun right now, and led by new manager Joe Maddon, they're absolutely for real. They’re also in the process of making a statement right now, having gone into Pittsburgh and taken the first two games of their current series. This is an interesting test for them, and so far they’re passing with flying colors. Jason Hammel will be seeking to keep it going tonight.
Trending Down
-- A trendy pick to make a postseason push in 2015, the Marlins look like they’ve been making more of a push towards the golf course as soon as the season concludes. At 3-11, Miami has dug itself quite a hole -- especially while three of their fellow division tenants in the NL East continue to play at a very high level -- posting baseball’s second-worst record entering play today. So what exactly has happened to the Marlins after their very encouraging campaign from a year ago? Well one, their starting pitching, which looked like a strength entering the season, has been mostly lackluster. While Dan Haren has performed well after being acquired by the club this past offseason, their other acquisition for the staff, Mat Latos, has been a disaster in his first three starts. It looks even worse right now considering they surrendered Anthony DeSclafani in that deal, and he’s been tremendous with the Reds thus far. Furthermore, Henderson Alvarez, their Opening Day starter, is on the disabled list, while Jarred Cosart and Tom Koehler have been inconsistent. And so has their bullpen, for that matter. But just as glaring, their offense has greatly disappointed. They have eight home runs as a team, which has them anchored almost at the very bottom of the league, and as a result, their run production is much lower than anticipated. Furthermore, they’re striking out a ton, only behind the Astros and Nationals in that category. It’s only a matter of time before their face of the franchise, Giancarlo Stanton, gets going, but they’re going to need a lot more than that to get back into the thick of things. It’s probable that the Marlins will get out of this rut that they’re in and play decent baseball at the very least, but the ship is already sailing on their playoff hopes. They need to pick it up right away and salvage this road series in Philadelphia.
-- Uh, what’s going on with the Brewers? Owners of baseball’s worst record at 2-12, Milwaukee has almost looked lifeless every single night, quickly spiraling to the bottom of Major League Baseball in a span of only a couple of weeks. First and foremost, this can be attributed to their offense, which is hitting a pitiful .217 to begin the year and is actually last in baseball in OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) with an embarrassing .581 mark. They’re also second-to-last in home runs. Their best and most dynamic player, Carlos Gomez, has been on the DL, and they haven’t really gotten much from anyone else. In fact, only one player is hitting above .280 (Jean Segura), and they have no one with more than one homer this year. Ryan Braun, who is supposed to be their leader, has provided nothing of importance at all, slashing a weak .255/.286/.319 with only four runs driven in. Comically, their pitching might be even worse, as all but one of their starting pitchers owns an ERA well above 5.00. Promising youngster Jimmy Nelson has been the one saving grace, but as for the rest of the pitching staff, it’s been a nightmare, particularly for Kyle Lohse and Mike Fiers. There are some huge problems in Milwaukee right now that won’t be figured out for awhile, and it’s probably best to just fade them.
-- Just like they do every year under manager Walt Weiss, the Rockies came storming out of the gate, opening up the 2015 campaign with an impressive 7-2 record. But just like clockwork, the club couldn't sustain it - except this time, they began their fade quicker, and didn't need the usual injuries to Carlos Gonzalez and/or Troy Tulowitzki to do it. Colorado has still exhibited signs that they can be much better than people think, and certainly better than their low win total assigned to them by linesmakers, as their offense is still raking regardless. However, as is always the case, their starting pitching has looked suspect, although there is some potential there with how one of their key starters of the future, Eddie Butler, has looked in the early going. They were swept by the Dodgers over the weekend, and after losing the first two games of a four-game home set with the Padres, they could be on the verge of suffering the same fate. Opening Day starter Kyle Kendrick will be tasked tonight with stopping the bleeding. Colorado should get back on track, but ultimately, they won't keep up with division behemoths Los Angeles and San Diego.
Trending Pitcher
-- A former top prospect that was on the verge of turning into a bust, Trevor Bauer has turned it around and looks dominant in the early going to help keep his Indians afloat through these first couple of weeks. Drafted by Arizona, it was anticipated that Bauer would develop into an upper echelon starting pitcher, but due to a combination of injuries and ineffectiveness, he hasn’t quite panned out. In three 2015 outings, however, Bauer has looked like the overpowering starter scouts pegged him to be, owning a 2-0 record with a microscopic 0.95 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Even more remarkable, opposing lineups are hitting just .125 off the promising right-hander, and Bauer has also logged 26 strikeouts in 19 innings of work. If he continues along in this rhythm, the 24-year-old may challenge teammate Corey Kluber for the AL strikeout title. He’s 3-0 towards Under bets thus far, going at least six strong in each start, and should be monitored for such bets when going into an assignment.
Trending Hitter
-- While Adrian Gonzalez has probably garnered the most attention of any offensive player out to a hot start this season, it may be Adam Jones who is enjoying a better beginning. Jones, looking like an early AL MVP candidate, has been very instrumental in helping guide his Baltimore Orioles to .500, even while the team has received horrendous starting pitching to start the season. Thus far, Jones is raking an unbelievable .442/.483/.808 in 52 at-bats, while clocking five home runs and driving in 16, which have him near the top of baseball in runs batted in. Furthermore, he’s scored 12 runs and has contributed his usual sound defense center field. Having established himself as one of baseball’s most complete offensive players, don’t be surprised to find Jones being very prevalent in the MVP conversation at the conclusion of the season. His success may ultimately be the No. 1 deciding factor on whether or not Baltimore can successfully defend their AL East title.
