CNOTES 2024 - 2025 COLLEGE BASKETBALL NEWS-BEST BETS-OPINIONS THRU THE CHAMPIONSHIP !

[ozzy44 1,080]

March Madness Sweet 16 Betting Trends​

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Wednesday, March 26, 1:00 p.m. ET.

Chalk Full​

Favorites Strike Back
Entering the Sweet 16, chalk has mostly survived both in the bracket world and in the betting world, too…

• Favorites of 8 points or more are 18-0 SU in the NCAA Tournament — the fourth time in the history of the tournament that 18 or more 8+ pt favorites won outright before the Sweet 16 with no losses.
• Favorites of 6 points or more are 26-2 SU and 19-9 ATS in the NCAA Tournament — Over the last two years, these big favs are 51-6 SU and 38-19 ATS entering the Sweet 16.
• We have no 11 seeds or higher in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2007.
• Top-4 seeds are 19-13 ATS in this year's tournament and 40-22 ATS over the last two years entering the Sweet 16.
• Lower-seeded teams finished 27-21 ATS through two rounds. They are above .500 ATS three straight years through two rounds for a combined 81-62-2 ATS mark in the last three tournaments.

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SEC Strikes Back​

The New Sweet 16
Through the Round of 64 and First Four, the SEC was 5-9 ATS, and they were mainly the joke of the dance. In the Round of 32, the SEC went 6-2 ATS, and of the five "upsets" in March Madness—five points or more on the spread—the SEC has three of those, one with Ole Miss and two with Arkansas.

In March, SEC underdogs are 29-19 ATS and 6-3 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. This season, the SEC is 28-13 ATS as an underdog vs. non-conference opponents.

The SEC is 15-7 SU in the 2025 NCAA Tournament, the Big 12 is 10-3 SU and the Big Ten is 12-4 SU. Combined, the SEC, Big Tenn and Big 12 are 29-6 SU vs. all other conferences in this year's dance. Every other conference is 15-38 SU in this year's tournament.

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Back In The 70's​

Alabama's High Total
The Alabama–BYU over/under could make some history in the Sweet 16. The over/under currently sits at 175.5.

We've seen five games close with a total above 170 in the last 30 years — three have happened since the 1995 NCAA Tournament, and they were all last year, all with Alabama — closing at 172.5, 173, and 175. The record is 177 with Texas–Maryland back in 1995.

This year has been even higher.

On Feb. 22, vs. Kentucky, they had a game close at 181.5—the highest total in any CBB game since 2019, and the highest closing total in a Conference Tournament game in the last 20 years.

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First Time​

Cal's New Experience
In his coaching career, John Calipari had never been an underdog in the Round of 64 — that ended Friday (a favorite in 23 straight R64 games). Then he was an underdog again in the Round of 32 and beat 2-seed St. John's and Rick Pitino.

Now Calipari is an underdog again in the Sweet 16. The first time he's ever been an underdog in three straight NCAA Tournament games and going back to the SEC Tournament, the 4th straight game he's been a dog — his most in a row since at least 2005.

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Southern History​

Dog Again
Arkansas and Ole Miss are the lone teams to win as underdogs in the Round of 64 and Round of 32 and now they are both listed as underdogs in the Sweet 16.

If either win, they would be the 16 team since 1985 to win as dogs in the first three rounds entering the Elite 8 and they would become just the second from the SEC, joining LSU in 1987. In the last 30 years, we've actually seen six major conference teams pull off this 3-game stretch: 2024 Clemson, 2021 Oregon State, 2021 UCLA, 2018 Syracuse, 2017 Xavier and 2002 Missouri.

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Dogless Race​

No Longshots
Of the 16 teams left in the field entering the Sweet 16, none had odds higher than 100-1 to win it all at the start of the regular season back in November—this is the first time since 2009 that has been the case.

The biggest longshots from preseason are Texas Tech and Maryland, who both had 100-1 odds to win it all.

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History Unkind​

Gators vs. World
Isn't this interesting? Florida opened the tournament by beating Norfolk State but not covering. Then, they beat UConn but couldn't cover the lofty 9-point spread. The only team since 1985 to start an NCAA Tournament 0-2 ATS and go on to win it all was Arizona in 1997.

Florida entered the regular season at 60-1 odds to win it all and was awarded a one-seed. Since 2009, we’ve had 12 teams listed at 30-1 or higher in the preseason and end up with a 1 seed — two made the Final Four, Gonzaga in 2017 and Minnesota in 1997, and none have won it all

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Quiet on the Western Front​

Is This The Year?
Since Arizona won the national title in 1997, no team west of Texas has won it all. We only have two teams left in the field that fit this criteria: BYU and Arizona

Reversal of Fortune​

Have A Lead, Hold A Lead?
Teams who lead at the half in the NCAA Tournament went 21-30 against the second half spread in this year's NCAA Tournament entering the Sweet 16. That 21-30 2H ATS mark is the 2nd-worst for any tourney in the last 15 years after the Round of 32.

It is crazy, especially when you consider this: Teams that led at the half in the NCAA Tournament were above .500 against the second-half spread in six consecutive tournaments dating back to 2018, going 220-160-5 (58%) against the second-half spread in that span entering this year.

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Change It Up​

Avoiding Houston Curse
Houston lost in the Sweet 16 in 2023 and 2024, both times as the betting favorite. Since 1980, 35 one-seeds have lost in the Sweet 16. Only Duke, in 2005 and 2006, lost in consecutive years as a one-seed in the Sweet 16; no team has done it in three straight years.

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True Home Dog​

One For the State
Purdue will be playing the Sweet 16 in their home state of Indianapolis. In the seeding era, we’ve had 70 teams playing in Sweet 16 or later playing in their home state.

7 of those 70 teams were underdogs of 7 pts or more. They went 0-7 SU and 3-4 ATS — none being able to pull the upset.

 

[ozzy44 1,080]

March Madness Sweet 16 Analytics Report​

Prior Tournament Game Systems​

Here are the “prior game reactionary systems” of 60% or better that I found when I studied the subject and how they impact the following games:

NCAA Tournament Prior Game System #2

· Teams that win in the NCAAs by scoring 88 or more points have gone 57-10 SU and 42-25 ATS (62.7%) in the follow-up game since 2000 when favored by six points or more.
Steve’s thoughts: Obviously a big offensive performance can dramatically lift the confidence of a team in a tournament setting. This system should be enhanced in short turnaround games.
This system favors DUKE on Thursday

NCAA Tournament Prior Game System #4

· Teams that win in the NCAAs but are beaten by 7+ points on the point spread have rebounded nicely in the next game, 30-8 SU and 25-12-1 ATS (67.6%) since 2010.
Steve’s thoughts: Because these teams survived underperforming efforts, they are obviously among the stronger teams in the field. There is a reason the term “survive and advance” has accompanied this tournament for years. Don’t expect a second straight flat effort.
This system favors FLORIDA and MARYLAND in the Sweet 16

Sweet 16 Trends​

• Laying big points seems to be getting more and more risky in the Sweet 16 in recent years, as favorites of five points or more are 14-11 SU but just 8-17 ATS (32%) since 2017.
This trend goes against Duke -9.5, Alabama -5.5, Texas Tech -5.5, Florida -6.5, Auburn -9.5 and Houston -8.5

• Sweet 16 favorites of eight points or more are on a 27-8-3 Under (77.1%) the total run, allowing 62.7 PPG.
This trend favors Under in Arizona-Duke 153.5, Michigan-Auburn 153.5 and Purdue-Houston 132.5

• Sweet 16 No. 1 and 2 seeds have taken care of business lately and combined are on a 38-17 SU and 31-23-1 ATS (57.4%) run over the last 10 seasons. However, they are just 4-8 SU and ATS over the last two years, as many people’s brackets have been obliterated on those Thursday and Friday nights.
This trend favors Duke -9.5, Alabama -5.5, Florida -6.5, Auburn -9.5, Michigan State -3.5, Houston -8.5 and Tennessee -4.5

• The Sweet 16 is usually the end of the line for double-digit seeds, however, they have been very competitive as underdogs, going 16-7-1 ATS (69.6%) in that role since 2011.
This trend favors Arkansas +5.5

• The popular No. 1 vs. No. 4 matchup has been all No. 1 lately, 12-4 SU and 9-6-1 ATS (60%) over the last 10 tournaments. However, No. 4s Duke and Alabama both won last year over No. 1s.
This trend favors Duke -9.5, Florida -6.5 and Houston -8.5

• Over the last 10 years, there have been 25 Sweet 16 games with totals of less than 138, and Under the total is 18-7 (75%).
This trend favors Under in Purdue-Houston 132.5

• I mentioned earlier that bettors have not enjoyed a winning second round since 2017, and I referenced the short prep window as the potential reason. In the Sweet 16, they have bounced back, going 38-27-1 ATS (58.5%) in moving opening lines since 2012.
As of Tuesday, March 25, this trend was favoring Alabama -5.5, Florida -6.5, Duke -9.5, Michigan State -3.5, Auburn -9.5 and Houston -8.5

From the “Handicapping the tournament by conferences” article, here are the conference trends that will be applicable for the Sweet 16 games on Thursday and Friday:

ACC​

Teams in the field/First matchup
DUKE (East #1) vs. ARIZONA — Big 12

Trends
– Over the last three NCAA Tournaments, the ACC boasts a record of 33-15 SU and ATS (68.8%).
This trend favors Duke -9.5

– ACC teams are on a surge of 11-4 SU and 13-2 ATS (86.7%) in the NCAAs versus Big 12 foes, including 3-0 SU and ATS last year. In addition, underdogs are on an impressive 9-9 SU and 13-5 ATS (72.2%) surge in the matchup.
The ACC trend favors Duke -9.5, the underdog trend favors Arizona +9.5

Big 12​

Teams in the field/First matchup
ARIZONA (East #4) vs. DUKE — ACC
BYU (East #6) vs. ALABAMA — SEC
HOUSTON (Midwest #1) vs. PURDUE — Big Ten
TEXAS TECH (West #3) vs. ARKANSAS — SEC

Trends
– Big 12 teams in the No. 4 vs. No. 8 seed ranges are on a slide of 25-35 SU and 22-37 ATS (37.3%) since 2010, popular upset victims.
This trend goes against Arizona +9.5 and BYU +5.5

– Favorites are 14-6 SU and 12-7-1 ATS (63.2%) in the last 20 NCAA Tournament games between the Big 12 and Big Ten.
This trend favors Houston -8.5

– Big 12 teams have lost 59 of their 74 NCAA Tournament games since 2000 as underdogs of 2.5 points or more and are 30-43-1 ATS (41.1%) in those games.
This trend goes against Arizona +9.5 and BYU +5.5

– As favorites of seven points or more in the NCAAs, Big 12 teams are on a run of 31-2 SU and 22-11 ATS (66.7%).
This trend favors Houston -8.5

Big Ten​

Teams in the field/First matchup
MARYLAND (West #4) vs. FLORIDA — SEC
MICHIGAN (South #5) vs. AUBURN — SEC
MICHIGAN STATE (South #2) vs. OLE MISS — SEC
PURDUE (Midwest #4) vs. HOUSTON — Big 12

Trends
– Big Ten teams have been vulnerable in the No. 4 seed of late, 4-13-1 ATS (23.5%) in their last 18 tournament tries.
This trend goes against Maryland +6.5 and Purdue +8.5

– Overall, Big Ten teams and top-6 seeds haven’t meshed well since 2015, as they are 49-33 SU but 35-46-1 ATS (43.2%) in that scenario.
This trend goes against Maryland +6.5, Michigan +9.5, Michigan State -3.5 and Purdue +8.5

– Big Ten teams are on a 13-8 SU and 15-5-1 ATS (75%) run vs. SEC foes in the NCAA Tournament, including 2-1 SU and ATS last year.
This trend goes against Maryland +6.5, Michigan +9.5 and Michigan State -3.5

– Big Ten teams have gone just 16-20 SU and 15-20-1 ATS (42.9%) since 2015 in the NCAA tournament vs. Big 12 foes.
This trend goes against Purdue +8.5

– For as good as Big Ten teams have been in the big favorite role, they have been brutal as underdogs of 5.5 points or more in the tournament, 6-53 SU and 21-38 ATS (35.6%) since 1998. They were 0-3 SU and ATS in this role a year ago, losing by 19 PPG.
This trend goes against Maryland +6.5, Michigan +9.5 and Purdue +8.5

– In tournament games of the second round and later, Big Ten teams are just 22-35 SU & 23-32-2 ATS (41.8%) since 2017.
This trend goes against Maryland +6.5, Michigan +9.5, Michigan State -3.5 and Purdue +8.5

SEC​

Teams in the field/First matchup
ALABAMA (East #2) vs. BYU — Big 12
ARKANSAS (West #10) vs. TEXAS TECH — Big 12
AUBURN (South #1) vs. MICHIGAN — Big Ten
FLORIDA (West #1) vs. MARYLAND — Big Ten
KENTUCKY (Midwest #3) vs. TENNESSEE — SEC
OLE MISS (South #6) vs. MICHIGAN STATE — Big Ten
TENNESSEE (Midwest #2) vs. KENTUCKY — SEC

Trends
– The last five NCAA tournaments have been a struggle for SEC teams, as they are just 44-43 SU and 33-54 ATS (37.9%) since the Friday of the first round in the 2018 tourney. They were a combined 8-8 SU and ATS in 2024. This trend figures to get tested heavily in ’25.
This trend goes against Alabama -5.5, Arkansas +5.5, Auburn -9.5, Florida, -6.5, Ole Miss +3.5 — Note: Kentucky and Tennessee cancel each other out

– Underdogs are 48-32 ATS (60%) in the last 80 SEC NCAA Tournament games overall, but they were just 5-11 ATS last year.
This trend goes against Alabama -5.5, Auburn -9.5, Florida, -6.5 and Tennessee -4.5 but favors Arkansas +5.5, Ole Miss +3.5 and Kentucky +4.5

– As pick-’ems or small favorites of five points or less, SEC teams are an ugly 45-51 SU and 37-55-4 ATS (40.2%) in the NCAAs since 1999.
This trend goes against Ole Miss +3.5 and Kentucky +4.5

– SEC teams have been a solid wager in the Sweet 16 round, 23-14-2 ATS (62.2%) since 2003.
This trend favors Alabama -5.5, Arkansas +5.5, Auburn -9.5, Florida, -6.5, Ole Miss +3.5 – Note: Kentucky and Tennessee cancel each other out

– Seeded in the bottom half of the field (#9-#14), SEC teams have struggled to a 10-25 SU and 13-20-2 ATS (39.4%) record since 2007.
This trend goes against Arkansas +5.5

Top Head-to-Head Trends for the Sweet 16​

There are only three Sweet 16 games with any recent relevancy in terms of head-to-head history:

(625) ARIZONA at (626) DUKE
* UNDER the total is on a 3-0 streak in the Arizona-Duke series since 2013

(629) ARKANSAS at (630) TEXAS TECH
* ARKANSAS is on a 3-0 ATS streak versus Texas Tech since 2016, and UNDER the total has converted in the last four head-to-head meetings

(639) KENTUCKY at (640) TENNESSEE
* UNDERDOGS have converted in the last seven Kentucky-Tennessee rivalry games both straight up and against the spread

 

[ozzy44 1,080]

SWEET 16 INCREDIBLE STAT

Over the last 20 years, the #1 or #2 seed in
the NCAA Tournament that was not selected in
the AP Preseason Top 25 poll has failed to make
it to the Final Four. (Read: Michigan State)

PLAY ON any NCAA
tournament team in the
Elite 8 round if they upset
a #1 seed as an underdog
in the Sweet 16 round.
ATS W-L Record
Since 1996:
17-3
(85%)

NCAA Sweet 16 Round Notes

• #1 Seed favs > 2 pts are 9-3 ATS
• #2 Seeds are 2-5 ATS
• #3 Seed dogs are 1-5 ATS
• #4 Seeds are 3-1 ATS
• #5 or worse seeds are 1-8 SU & 3-6 ATS
• Favorites are 5-0 ATS vs an opponent w/ revenge
• Dogs > 2 pts who allowed 60 > pts in the Final 4 round
are 1-6 ATS
• Favorites of 5 < pts are 1-5 ATS
• Teams off BB SU dog wins are 1-4 ATS
• Big East teams are 9-1 ATS
• ACC teams are 9-3
• SEC teams are 4-1 ATS
• Big 10 teams are 0-7 ATS L19Y
• West Coast Conference teams are 0-2 ATS
• Big 12 teams are 2-4 ATS

NCAA Elite 8 Round Notes

• #1 Seeds are 25-9 ATS off BB SUATS wins (DUKE)
• #2 Seeds are 18-9 ATS vs opp off a SU dog win (ALABAMA,
MICHIGAN ST, TENNESSEE)
• #3 Seed favs are 9-20 ATS / 1-8 ATS L12Y (Texas Tech)
• #5 Seeds are 5-10 ATS L0Y (Michigan)
• #6 Seeds are 6-1 ATS L11Y (BYU, MISSISSIPPI)
• #10 or worse Seed dogs > 4 pts are 14-4 ATS L13Y (ARKANSAS)
• Underdogs of > 6 pts are 14-6 ATS L7Y (ARIZONA,
MARYLAND, MICHIGAN, PURDUE)
• Favorites of 3 < pts are 0-6 ATS L3Y (Michigan St)
• Favorites who allowed 75 > pts in Round 2 are 2-11 ATS
L8Y (Florida, Houston)
Best Team ATS records in this round
KENTUCKY 8-1 ATS L19Y, FLORIDA 5-2-1 ATS L25Y.
Worst Team ATS records in this round
Arizona 0-5 ATS L11Y, Houston 0-2 ATS L2Y, Maryland 0-2
ATS L22Y, Arkansas 1-4 ATS L25Y, Purdue 3-7 ATS L25Y,
Michigan St 2-4 ATS L13Y, Duke 3-6 ATS as favs L20Y.
Best Conference ATS records in this round
Big 10: 5-1 ATS as favs > 2 pts (MICHIGAN ST), CUSA: 4-1 ATS,
SEC: 4-1-1 ATS as favs 6 < pts (ALABAMA, TENNESSEE), AAC:
9-3 ATS as favs, ACC: 7-3 ATS L3Y (DUKE).
Worst Conference ATS records in this round
Big 10: 0-8 ATS as dogs > 3 pts (Maryland, Michigan, Purdue),
Big 12: 1-5 as dogs > 2 pts (Arizona), Moun West: 1-5-1 ATS,
SEC: 1-4 ATS as favs > 6 pts (Auburn, Florida).

NCAA Final 4 Round Notes

• #1 Seeds are 9-3 ATS L8Y
• #2 Seeds are 2-12 as favs 3 > pts
• #3 Seeds are 4-16 ATS L17Y
• #4 Seeds are 9-2 ATS off a SU dog win
• #5 Seeds are 10-1 ATS
• #6 Seeds are 2-9 ATS
• #7 Seeds are 4-1-1 ATS L20Y
• #8 Seeds are 6-1 ATS
• #9 Seeds are 3-1 ATS
• #10 or worse Seeds are 8-3-1 ATS L16Y
• Teams with same-season single revenge are 9-2-2 ATS
L22Y
• Favs of 10 > pts are 0-5-1 ATS
• Dogs off an ATS loss are 1-4 ATS L11Y
Best Conference ATS records in this round
A-10: 6-0-1, SEC: 5-1-1 as favs 7 > pts, ACC: 9-3 as favs
> 3 pts, Big East: 10-4 as dogs, Big 10: 7-3 as dogs.
Worst Conference ATS records in this round
Big 10: 1-5 as favs 3 > pts, Big 12: 3-13 as favs, SEC: 4-15
vs opp off ATS win, AAC: 2-6-1.

NCAA Championship Notes

• #1 Seeds are 8-3 ATS vs opp w/ revenge
• #2 Seed favs are 7-17-1 ATS
• #3 Seeds are 7-1 ATS
• #4 Seeds are 3-6 ATS
• #5 Seeds are 2-4 ATS
• #8 or #9 Seeds are 4-0-1 ATS L14Y
• #10 or worse Seeds are 1-5 ATS
• Dogs off an ATS loss are 6-1 ATS
• Teams off BB SU dog wins are 3-10 ATS
• Dogs off BB DD SU wins are 1-7 ATS
• Favs 4 > pts who scored 80 > pts in Elite 8 round are
4-12 ATS
• Teams with Revenge are 5-13 ATS
• Big East teams are 7-1 ATS L14Y
• Big 10 favs are 6-1 ATS
• BIg 12 teams are 3-1 ATS L5Y
• SEC favs are 0-4-1 ATS L13Y
• Mountain West teams are 0-2 ATS
• West Coast Conference teams are 0-2 ATS

 

[CNOTES 3,265]

Thursday, March 27​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
BYU at ALA	07:09 PM	ALA -5.0 O 176.0	+500 +500
MD at FLA	07:39 PM	FLA -6.0 U 156.0	+500 +500
ARIZ at DUKE	09:39 PM	ARIZ +9.5 O 154.5	+500 +500
ARK at TTU	10:09 PM	TTU -5.5 U 147.0	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES 3,265]

NCAA COLLEGE HOOPS BEST BETS !

03/27/2025................3 - 3 - 0.....................50.00%..................- 1.50
03/25/2025................4 - 2 - 0.....................66.66%...................+ 12.00
03/24/2025................2 - 3 - 0.....................40.00%...................- 6.50
03/23/2025..............14 - 13 - 1...................51.85%..................- 1.50
03/22/2025................10 - 6 - 1...................62.50%..................+ 17.00
03/21/2025...............10 - 16 - 0...................38.46%..................- 38.00
03/20/2025...............11 - 14 - 0....................44,99%..................- 22.00
03/19/2025...................8 - 6 - 1....................57.14%...................+ 7.00
03/18/2025...................5 - 8 - 0....................38.46%...................- 19.00
03/16/2025...................4 - 6 - 0....................40.00%...................- 13.00
03/15/2025.................12 - 11 - 1.................52.19%...................- 0.50
03/14/2025.................22 - 10 - 1.................68.75%...................+ 55.00
03/13/2025.................15 - 14 - 0.................51.72%....................- 2.00
03/12/2025.................16 - 18 - 0.................47.05%....................- 19.00
03/11/2025.................15 - 15 - 0..................50.00%....................- 7,50
03/10/2025.................12 - 5 - 0....................70.58%....................+ 32.50
03/09/2025.................20 - 20 - 1.................50.00%.....................- 10.00
03/08/2025.................16 - 19 - 0.................45.71%.....................- 24.50
03/07/2025.................15 - 13 - 1.................53.57%.....................+ 3.50
03/06/2025.................18 - 16 - 2.................52.94%......................+ 2.00
03/05/2025....................7 - 8 - 0.................46.66%......................- 9.00
03/04/2025..................5 - 10 - 0.................33.33%.....................- 30.00
03/03/2025....................3 - 9 - 0.................25.00%......................- 34.50
03/02/2025....................4 - 5 - 0.................44.44%......................- 7.50
03/01/2025.................34 - 25 - 0.................57.62%......................+ 32.50

TOTALS:...................295 - 275 - 9.................51.75%......................- 84.50

 

[CNOTES 3,265]

Friday’s 6-pack:
States with the most Waffle Houses:
433— Georgia
185— Florida
183— North Carolina
171— South Carolina
153— Alabama
134— Tennessee

Quote of the Day
“My biggest concerns in life right now, I don’t know who my boss is going to be. The guy that brought me here — who I really like, but appreciative of him bringing me to College Park — is not here anymore and I don’t know who we’re going to hire and in today’s day and age that worries me a little bit.”
Maryland basketball coach Kevin Willard

Friday’s quiz
Colorado Rockies have played in one World Series; who was their manager?
(Hint: He was also the Pirates’ manager, last time they had a winning season)

Thursday’s quiz
2008 was the last time all four #1-seeds made the Final Four.

Wednesday’s quiz
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar played the last 14 years of his great career for the Lakers; he played his first six years for the Milwaukee Bucks.

*****************************************

Friday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Thursday​

— Texas Tech 85, Arkansas 83 OT
Arkansas led by 16 with 11:00 left in the game.
Tech tied it up on a 3-pointer with 0:09.7 left in regulation.
Tech out-rebounded Arkansas, 51-39
Red Raiders move on to play #1-seed Florida Saturday.

— Duke 100, Arizona 93
Duke shot 11-19 on the arc.
Blue Devils are 30-1 since Thanksgiving.
Arizona started season 17-6, went 7-7 in their last 14 games.
Duke is in Elite 8 for third time in four years.

— Florida 87, Maryland 71
Gators led 40-38 at halftime.
Florida out-rebounded Maryland, 42-20.
Gators shot 59.4% inside the arc.
Florida has won nine in row, 15 of last 16 games.

— Alabama 113, BYU 88
Alabama shot 25-51 on the arc, scored 1.43 points/possession.
BYU shot 6-30 on arc, 64.3% inside arc, and lost by 25.
Crimson Tide scored 62 points in the second half.
Alabama scored 94.3 ppg in its three NCAA tourney wins.

— Famous birthdays, March 28th
Rick Barry, 80
Len Elmore, 73
JK McKay, 72
Reba McIntyre, 70
Glenn Davis, 64
Byron Scott, 64
Vince Vaughn, 55
Chris Long, 40
Stefani Germanotta, 39 (Lady Gaga)
Christian Walker, 34
Derek Carr, 34
Will Smith, 30 (Dodgers’ catcher)

— Orioles 12, Blue Jays 2
Tyler O’Neill homered on Opening Day for the sixth year in a row.

— Padres 7, Braves 4
Padres took the lead with four runs in 7th inning.
Jackson Merrill drove in four runs for San Diego.

— Astros 3, Mets 1
Mets had 6 hits, drew 6 walks, were 0-6 with RISP.
Framber Valdez threw seven shutout IP (90 PT)

— Marlins 5, Pirates 4
Pittsburgh led 4-2 in the eighth inning.
Kyle Stowesr had a walk-off single to send 31,590 fans home happy.

— Bronx 4, Brewers 2
Freddy Peralta gave up two home runs in his 5 IP:
Austin Wells’ homer would’ve only been a home run in this stadium.
Anthony Volpe’s homer would’ve been a homer in only 9 of 30 MLB stadiums.
In other words, Peralta gave up two cheap home runs.
(There is an app that says how many ballparks each home run would’ve gone out of)

— Word of the Day— Over-reaction- Responding to something with too strong an emotion.
Example: the nine hitters in my fantasy baseball lineup went 4-32 Thursday; the guys on my bench went 10-22. A lesser person would’ve over-reacted and be annoyed by that

— Guardians 7, Royals 4 (10)
Kyle Manzardo was 3-4, scored twice, had four RBI
Royals led 3-0 early, tied game in bottom of ninth

— Giants 6, Reds 4
Wilmer Flores hit a 3-run homer in the ninth inning.
Jeimer Candelario knocked in three runs for the Reds.

— Red Sox 5, Rangers 2
Wilyer Abreu hit a 3-run tater in 9th inning, his second homer of the day.
Boston’s bullpen threw four shutout innings.

— Dodgers 5, Tigers 4
Detroit was 0-15 with runners in scoring position.
Ohtani hit another home run, is off to a 5-12 start at the plate.

— White Sox 8, Angels 1
Sean Burke tossed six shutout innings for Chicago.
Andrew Benintendi hit a 3-run homer.

 

[Udog 3,450]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Friday, March 28

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, March 28

Friday’s games
Ole Miss vs Michigan State (-3.5) (@ Atlanta)
Ole Miss (24-11, 10-8. T6th)
KenPom rating: 20
Tempo: 132
Experience: 3
Continuity: 134
Ole Miss is 5-2 in its last seven games.
Rebels are 13-2 in non-league games (NC sked #194)
Ole Miss is 13-11 vs opponents in top 50.
Rebels are forcing turnovers 20.3% of time (#33)
Ole Miss lost 80-78 to Big 14’s Purdue back in November.
Rebels are in Sweet 16 for first time since 2001
Coach Beard is 2-0 in Sweet 16 games.

Michigan State (29-6, 17-3. 1st)
KenPom rating: 7
Tempo: 171
Experience: 214
Continuity: 83
MSU won 10 of its last 11 games.
Spartans are 11-2 in non-league games.
MSU is 14-4 vs teams ranked in top 50.
Spartans have #12 eFG% defense in country.
MSU is #8 team in country on defensive boards.
Since 2016, Spartans are 1-1 in Sweet 16 games.


Big 18 is #2 league, SEC the #1 league
Last six NCAA’s, #2-seeds are 8-6 ATS in this round.


Kentucky vs Tennessee (-4.5) (@ Indianapolis)
Kentucky (24-11, 10-8. T6th)
KenPom rating: 15
Tempo: 26
Experience: 7
Continuity: 355
Kentucky is 9-4 in its last 13 games.
Wildcats are 13-11 vs teams ranked in top 50.
Kentucky was 10-8 in SEC games this season.
Wildcats have #22 eFG% offense in country.
Kentucky is #27 team on defensive boards.
Since 2010, Wildcats are 7-1 in Sweet 16 games.

Tennessee (29-7, 12-6. 4th)
KenPom rating: 5
Tempo: 346
Experience: 14
Continuity: 164
Tennessee won 12 of its last 15 games.
Vols are 12-6 vs SEC teams this season.
Tennessee is #27 team on offensive boards.
Vols have #2 eFG% defense in the country.
Tennessee is 16-7 vs top 50 teams.
Since 2007, Vols are 2-5 SU in Sweet 16 games.


Kentucky beat Tennessee twice this year, 78-73/75-64.
Last six NCAA’s, #2-seeds are 8-6 ATS in this round.
Last four times conference rivals met in Sweet 16, favorites were 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS


Michigan vs Auburn (-9.5) (@ Atlanta)
Michigan (27-9, 14-6. T2nd)
KenPom rating: 21
Tempo: 58
Experience: 78
Continuity: 265
Michigan is 13-4 in its last seventeen games.
Wolverines are 10-3 in non-conference games.
Michigan is shooting 57.3% inside arc (#15)
Wolverines have #14 eFG% defense in country.
Michigan turns ball over 19.6% of time (#324)
Since 2017, Wolverines are 2-3 in Sweet 16 games.
Michigan is 1-2 vs SEC teams TY, losing by 1-2 points.

Auburn (30-5, 15-3. 1st)
KenPom rating: 4
Tempo: 147
Experience: 25
Continuity: 40
Auburn won three of its last four games.
Tigers are 14-1 outside the SEC.
Auburn is 20-5 vs top 50 opponents.
Tigers have #15 eFG% defense in country.
Auburn is shooting 56.1% inside arc (#30)
Auburn is 2-0 vs Big 18 teams TY, winning by 38-18 points.
Tigers are in Sweet 16 for second time since 2003.


SEC is the #1 league, Big 18 the #2 league
Last three years, #1-seeds were 2-7 ATS in Sweet 16 games.


Purdue vs Houston (-8.5) (@ Indianapolis)
Purdue (24-11, 14-7, T4)
KenPom rating: 16
Tempo: 299
Experience: 184
Continuity: 41
Purdue won five of its last seven games.
Boilers are 10-3 in non-conference games.
Purdue has #18 eFG% offense in country.
Opponents are shooting 56.2% inside arc (#341)
Purdue is 9-10 vs top 50 opponents.
Since 2017, Boilers are 2-3 in Sweet 16 games.

Houston (32-4, 19-1. 1st)
KenPom rating: 3
Tempo: 360
Experience: 39
Continuity: 8
Houston won its last fifteen games.
Cougars have #4 eFG% defense in country.
Cougars are forcing turnovers 21.5% of time (#18)
Houston is shooting 39.8% on the arc (#1)
Cougars are 9-3 vs teams ranked in top 50.
Last four years, Houston is 2-2 SU in Sweet 16 games.


Big 18 is the #2 league this year, Big X #3.
Last three years, #1-seeds were 2-7 ATS in Sweet 16 games.




NCAAB

Friday, March 28

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ole Miss VS Michigan State
Mississippi - Ole Miss are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Mississippi - Ole Miss' last 8 games.
Mississippi - Ole Miss are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Mississippi - Ole Miss' last 9 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.
Michigan State are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Michigan State's last 12 games.
Michigan State are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games.
Michigan State are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.

Kentucky VS Tennessee
Kentucky are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
Kentucky are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
Kentucky are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Tennessee.
Kentucky are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games against Tennessee.
Tennessee are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games.
Tennessee are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games against Kentucky.

Michigan VS Auburn
Michigan are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.
Michigan are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games.
Michigan are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.
Michigan are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in March.
Auburn are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Auburn's last 16 games.
Auburn are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games.
Auburn are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.

Purdue VS Houston
Purdue are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Purdue's last 8 games against an opponent in the Big 12 conference.
Purdue are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games played in March.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Purdue's last 8 games played on a Friday.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games.
Houston are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games.
Houston are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games played in March.
Houston are 17-2 SU in their last 19 games played on a Friday.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[CNOTES 3,265]

Friday, March 28​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
MISS at MSU	07:09 PM	MISS +3.5 O 145.0	+500 +500
UK at TENN	07:39 PM	TENN -4.5 O 144.5	+500 +500
MICH at AUB	09:39 PM	MICH +9.0 O 155.0	+500 +500
PUR at HOU	10:09 PM	HOU -8.5 U 133.5	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES 3,265]

NCAA COLLEGE HOOPS BEST BETS !

03/28/2025................3 - 5 - 0....................37.50.....................- 12.50
03/27/2025................3 - 3 - 0.....................50.00%..................- 1.50
03/25/2025................4 - 2 - 0.....................66.66%...................+ 12.00
03/24/2025................2 - 3 - 0.....................40.00%...................- 6.50
03/23/2025..............14 - 13 - 1...................51.85%..................- 1.50
03/22/2025................10 - 6 - 1...................62.50%..................+ 17.00
03/21/2025...............10 - 16 - 0...................38.46%..................- 38.00
03/20/2025...............11 - 14 - 0....................44,99%..................- 22.00
03/19/2025...................8 - 6 - 1....................57.14%...................+ 7.00
03/18/2025...................5 - 8 - 0....................38.46%...................- 19.00
03/16/2025...................4 - 6 - 0....................40.00%...................- 13.00
03/15/2025.................12 - 11 - 1.................52.19%...................- 0.50
03/14/2025.................22 - 10 - 1.................68.75%...................+ 55.00
03/13/2025.................15 - 14 - 0.................51.72%....................- 2.00
03/12/2025.................16 - 18 - 0.................47.05%....................- 19.00
03/11/2025.................15 - 15 - 0..................50.00%....................- 7,50
03/10/2025.................12 - 5 - 0....................70.58%....................+ 32.50
03/09/2025.................20 - 20 - 1.................50.00%.....................- 10.00
03/08/2025.................16 - 19 - 0.................45.71%.....................- 24.50
03/07/2025.................15 - 13 - 1.................53.57%.....................+ 3.50
03/06/2025.................18 - 16 - 2.................52.94%......................+ 2.00
03/05/2025....................7 - 8 - 0.................46.66%......................- 9.00
03/04/2025..................5 - 10 - 0.................33.33%.....................- 30.00
03/03/2025....................3 - 9 - 0.................25.00%......................- 34.50
03/02/2025....................4 - 5 - 0.................44.44%......................- 7.50
03/01/2025.................34 - 25 - 0.................57.62%......................+ 32.50

TOTALS:...................298 - 280 - 9.................51.55%......................- 97.00

 

[CNOTES 3,265]

Saturday’s 6-pack:
Six least valuable MLB franchises:
30) Marlins $1.05B
29) Rays $1.25B
28) Royals $1.3B
27) Reds $1.325B
26) Pirates $1.35B
25) Guardians $1.4B

Quote of the Day
“Real generosity toward the future lies in giving all to the present.”
Albert Camus

Sunday’s quiz
In the movie Major League, what actor plays the catcher for Cleveland?

Friday’s quiz
Colorado Rockies have played in one World Series; Clint Hurdle was their manager.

Thursday’s quiz
2008 was the last time all four #1-seeds made the Final Four.

****************************************

Saturday’s Den: Clearing out a cluttered mind…….​

— Michigan State 73, Ole Miss 70
Ole Miss led by 9 with 12:15 left in the game.
Michigan State was 19-22 on foul line, Rebels 9-10
Michigan State won 11 of its last 12 games.
Spartans are Elite 8 for first time since 2019.

— Tennessee 78, Kentucky 65
Tennessee shot 63.2% inside arc, led 43-28 at halftime.
Vols lost to Kentucky twice during the regular season.
Vols out-rebounded Kentucky, 34-24.
Tennessee is one win away from its first-ever Final Four.

— Auburn 78, Michigan 65
Auburn led 30-29 at halftime.
Pettiford scored 20 points in 29:00 off the bench.
Michigan shot 38.1% inside the arc.
Auburn out-rebounded the Wolverines, 48-33

— Houston 62, Purdue 60
Milos Uzan’s layup on an inbounds play with 0:00.9 left was the game-winner.
Uzan scored 22 points, had 6 assists, shot 6-9 on the arc.
Cougars led by 10 points with just under 8:00 left to play.
Houston is a #1-seed for third year in a row; they lost in Sweet 16 the last two years.

— Mountain West Player of the Year Donovan Dent bolted from New Mexico to UCLA; Lobos lost their coach earlier this week, when Richard Pitino bolted to Xavier.

— Drake hired South Dakota State coach Eric Henderson as its new coach; Henderson led the Jackrabbits to two NCAA tourneys the last four years- he won 20+ games in four of his six years at South Dakota State.

— Penn Quakers hired former Iowa coach Fran McCaffery as their new coach; last two years, Quakers were 7-21 in the Ivy League- they haven’t make NCAA Tournament since 2-18.
McCaffery is a Penn alum, graduating in 1982; he coached Iowa for the last 15 years.

— Famous birthdays, March 29th
Denny McLain, 81
Walt Frazier, 80
Ed Ratleff, 75
Earl Campbell, 70
Billy Beane, 63
Brian Jordan, 58
Chad Pinder, 33
Matt Olson, 31

— A’s 7, Mariners 0
A’s have played two games; starting P’s threw 12 scoreless innings.
Rookie IF Max Muncy’s first big league hit was a home run.
Last year, Seattle scored 3 or fewer runs in 16 of Luis Castillo’s 30 starts.

— Dodgers 8, Tigers 5 (10)
Detroit scored twice in top of 10th, Dodgers scored five runs.
Mookie Betts hit a 3-run homer for the game-winning hit.
Gleyber Torres got hurt hitting a home run in the third inning.
Earlier this week, Pirates’ 1B Nick Gonzales broke his ankle, also while hitting a home run. He hobbled around the bases, but is on the injured list now.

— Rays 3, Rockies 2
Rookie Kameron Misner hit a walk-off homer for Tampa Bay: he is the first player EVER whose first MLB home run was a walk-off homer on his team’s Opening Day.

— Mets 3, Astros 1
Juan Soto hit his first home run for the Mets.
Tylor Megill allowed only four baserunners, one run in five IP.
Houston had only three hits.

— Padres 4, Braves 3
Tatis, Cronenworth homered for the Padres.
San Diego’s bullpen threw 4.2 scoreless IP.
San Diego won the first two games in this series.

— Rangers 4, Red Sox 1
Jonah Heim homered twice for Texas.
Jack Leiter threw 5 IP, got his first MLB win.
Five Texas relievers got the last 12 outs, didn’t allow a run.

— Arizona Diamondbacks signed P Brandon Pfaadt to a 5-year, $45M contract; Pfaadt was 11-10, 4.71 in 32 starts last year, his second in the big leagues.

 

[Udog 3,450]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, March 29

Saturday’s games
Texas Tech vs Florida (-6.5) (@ San Francisco)
Texas Tech (28-8, 15-5. 2nd)
KenPom rating: 9
Tempo: 268
Experience: 42
Continuity: 144
Texas Tech won seven of its last eight games.
Red Raiders are 7-5 vs teams ranked in the top 50.
Texas Tech has #37 eFG% in the country.
Red Raiders are getting 37.2% of points on 3’s (#50)
Texas Tech is 12-2 outside the Big X.
Tech won in OT Thursday, after trailing by 16 with 9:50 left.
Five Red Raiders played 37:00+ Thursday.
Red Raiders are in Elite 8 for first time since 2019.

Florida (33-4, 14-4. 2nd)
KenPom rating: 2
Tempo: 61
Experience: 62
Continuity: 42
Florida won nine in row, 15 of last 16 games.
Gators are 16-0 out of conference (NC sked #238)
Florida is 17-4 vs teams ranked in the top 50.
Gators have #5 eFG% defense in country.
Florida is #5 team on offensive boards.
Florida played four guys 31:00+ in Thursday’s 87-71 win
Gators are in Elite 8 for first time since 2017.


Big X is the #3 league this year, SEC is the #1 league.
Last four years, #1-seeds are 5-1 ATS in Elite 8 games.


Duke (-6.5) vs Alabama (@ Newark, NJ)
Duke (34-3, 19-1. 1st)
KenPom rating: 1
Tempo: 266
Experience: 128
Continuity: 268
Duke won their last 14 games.
Blue Devils are shooting 58.6% inside the arc (#6)
Duke is #50 team on offensive boards.
Blue Devils have the #1 eFG% defense in country.
Duke is 11-3 vs top 50 opponents.
Blue Devils played four starters 32:00+ in Thursday’s 100-93 win
Duke shot 11-21 on arc in that game, scored 1.41 points/possession.
Duke is 1-3 in last four Elite 8 games; their last Final 4 was 2022.

Alabama (28-8, 13-5. 3rd)
KenPom rating: 6
Tempo: 1
Experience: 9
Continuity: 111
Alabama is 5-1 in its last six games.
Crimson Tide is shooting 60.1% inside the arc (#3)
Alabama is 19-8 vs teams in the top 50.
Crimson Tide has #37 eFG% defense in country.
Alabama plays the fastest-paced games in country.
Alabama shot 25-51 on arc, won 113-88 Thursday.
Crimson Tide played only one guy more than 28:00 in that 79-possession game.

SEC is the #1 league, ACC is the #5 league.
Last four years, #1-seeds are 5-1 ATS in Elite 8 games.




NCAAB

Saturday, March 29

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Texas Tech VS Florida
Texas Tech are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas Tech's last 5 games.
Texas Tech are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games.
Texas Tech are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.
Florida are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games.
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Florida's last 10 games.
Florida are 9-0 SU in their last 9 games.
Florida are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the Big 12 conference.

Alabama VS Duke
Alabama are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Alabama's last 7 games.
Alabama are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Alabama's last 5 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Coast conference.
Duke are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games.
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Duke's last 13 games.
Duke are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games.
Duke are 13-6 SU in their last 19 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Udog 3,450]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Saturday, March 29

 

[CNOTES 3,265]

Saturday, March 29​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
TTU at FLA	06:09 PM	FLA -7.0 O 157.0	+500 +500
ALA at DUKE	08:49 PM	DUKE -7.0 U 174.0	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES 3,265]

NCAA COLLEGE HOOPS BEST BETS !

03/29/2024................3 - 1 - 0....................75.00%..................+ 9.50
03/28/2025................3 - 5 - 0....................37.50.....................- 12.50
03/27/2025................3 - 3 - 0.....................50.00%..................- 1.50
03/25/2025................4 - 2 - 0.....................66.66%...................+ 12.00
03/24/2025................2 - 3 - 0.....................40.00%...................- 6.50
03/23/2025..............14 - 13 - 1...................51.85%..................- 1.50
03/22/2025................10 - 6 - 1...................62.50%..................+ 17.00
03/21/2025...............10 - 16 - 0...................38.46%..................- 38.00
03/20/2025...............11 - 14 - 0....................44,99%..................- 22.00
03/19/2025...................8 - 6 - 1....................57.14%...................+ 7.00
03/18/2025...................5 - 8 - 0....................38.46%...................- 19.00
03/16/2025...................4 - 6 - 0....................40.00%...................- 13.00
03/15/2025.................12 - 11 - 1.................52.19%...................- 0.50
03/14/2025.................22 - 10 - 1.................68.75%...................+ 55.00
03/13/2025.................15 - 14 - 0.................51.72%....................- 2.00
03/12/2025.................16 - 18 - 0.................47.05%....................- 19.00
03/11/2025.................15 - 15 - 0..................50.00%....................- 7,50
03/10/2025.................12 - 5 - 0....................70.58%....................+ 32.50
03/09/2025.................20 - 20 - 1.................50.00%.....................- 10.00
03/08/2025.................16 - 19 - 0.................45.71%.....................- 24.50
03/07/2025.................15 - 13 - 1.................53.57%.....................+ 3.50
03/06/2025.................18 - 16 - 2.................52.94%......................+ 2.00
03/05/2025....................7 - 8 - 0.................46.66%......................- 9.00
03/04/2025..................5 - 10 - 0.................33.33%.....................- 30.00
03/03/2025....................3 - 9 - 0.................25.00%......................- 34.50
03/02/2025....................4 - 5 - 0.................44.44%......................- 7.50
03/01/2025.................34 - 25 - 0.................57.62%......................+ 32.50

TOTALS:...................302 - 281 - 9.................51.80%......................- 87.50

 

[CNOTES 3,265]

Sunday’s 6-pack:
Highest MLB tax payrolls in 2024:
$399M- Dodgers
$328M- Mets
$310M- Bronx
$304M- Phillies
$267M- Blue Jays
$265M- Padres

Quote of the Day
“Life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your balance, you must keep moving.”
Albert Einstein

Sunday’s quiz
Which NFL team has gone the longest since the last time they drafted a quarterback in the first round?

Saturday’s quiz
In the movie Major League, Tom Berenger plays the catcher for Cleveland.

Friday’s quiz
Colorado Rockies have played in one World Series; Clint Hurdle was their manager.

**************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……..​

— Florida 84, Texas Tech 79
Red Raiders led by 9 with 3:14 left in the game.
Florida was 25-27 on foul line, Tech was 7-13.
Gators are in Final Four for first time since they won the 2007 title.

— Duke 85, Alabama 65
Blue Devils led 46-37 at halftime.
Alabama shot 35.4% from floor, 8-32 on arc.
Duke is going to the Final Four for the 18th time.

— This year’s Elite 8: three games between #1-#2 seeds, and a #1-#3 seed game, making it the chalkiest Elite 8 since 2007, when the same thing happened.
In 2009, there were two 1-2 matchups, two 1-3 matchups.
In 2008, all four #1-seeds advanced to the Final Four, the last time that happened; that year, there was a #10-seed in the Elite 8. Davidson had some kid named Steph Curry.

— Final Four of the NIT this week will be in Hinkle Fieldhouse, home of the Butler Bulldogs and site of the climactic scene in Hoosiers, the great Gene Hackman movie.

Semi-finals Tuesday:
North Texas vs Cal-Irvine and Chattanooga vs Loyola-Chicago.

— Does winning the NIT or CBI help a team the next season? Interesting question……..
Last six teams to win the CBI didn’t go to any postseason tournament the next year, so that’s a big no for the CBI, although in 2011, VCU made the Final Four the year after they won it, but that was 14 years ago. Since then, Pitt (2012), Nevada (2016) are only teams who made the NCAA’s the year after winning the CBI

Of the last nine NIT champs, only three made the NCAA’s the next year; Xavier made the Sweet 16 in 2022, Memphis (2021), TCU (2017) are the other two teams.

Since 2008, the 15 NIT champs are a combined 5-6 in NCAA Tourney games the next year.

— Memphis Grizzlies fired coach Taylor Jenkins this week, despite the team’s 44-29 record; Jenkins coached the Grizzlies to a 259-228 record, 9-14 in playoff games. This will be their fourth winning season in five years.
Memphis is 28-15 this year when Ja Morant plays, 16-14 when he doesn’t; this whole situation seems pretty strange- there must be an interesting backstory we don’t know about.

— Fordham Rams hired Cal-Riverside coach Mike Magpayo as its new coach; Riverside was 55-32 in Big West games during his time at Riverside, 89-63 overall.

Fordham was 25-8 two years ago, their only winning season since 2016.
— Arkansas State’s coach bolted to South Florida after the Red Wolves’ 25-11 season that ended in the 2nd round of the NIT; Ark State’s new coach is Ryan Pannone, an assistant coach at Alabama, just like the previous coach (Bryan Hodgson) was.

— Famous birthdays, March 30th
John Astin, 95
Warren Beatty, 88
Jerry Lucas, 85
Dave Chapple, 78
Paul Reiser, 69
Lomas Brown, 62
Celine Dion, 57
Chris Sale, 36
Alex Bregman, 31
Jacob Wilson, 23

— If you like baseball and you’re on Twitter, Umpire Scorecards is a good follow; they post a chart for every game, showing how accurate the home plate umpire was in that game, and where the pitches were that he missed. The one thing you learn is, these guys are pretty, pretty good.

— Padres 1, Braves 0
Pinch-hitter Yuli Gurriel knocked in the only run with a 7th inning single.
Braves are off to an 0-3 start, scoring total of seven runs.

— Angels 1, White Sox 0
Jose Soriano allowed only four baserunners, no runs in 7 IP (73 PT)
Angels’ TV guys even said that it seemed weird that they took him out.
Yoan Moncada’s 8th inning infield hit knocked in the game’s only run.

— Bronx 20, Brewers 9
Nestor Cortes returned to New York and gave up home runs to the first three hitters he faced, on the first three pitches he threw. Aaron Judge hit three homers, knocked in eight runs.
Weird game; Bronx hit eight home runs in first four innings, made five errors in the first five innings.

— Astros 2, Mets 1
Jeremy Pena homered for Houston.
Mets had only one hit, a Juan Soto double.
First three games of this series, total of only 11 runs have scored.

— Marlins 5, Pirates 4 (12)
Dane Myers’ RBI single was a walk-off winner.
Myers, Otto Lopez, Kyle Stowers had three hits apiece.
Marlins are 2-1 this weekend, with two walk-off wins.

— Rangers 4, Red Sox 3
Adolis Garcia was 3-3, with a double, two-run homer.
Texas used six pitchers, none of whom got more than six outs.
Wilyer Abreu is 6-9 this week, but Boston pinch-hit for him in 8th inning, because God forbid he hit against a lefty pitcher.

 

[CNOTES 3,265]

Sunday’s games

Tennessee vs Houston (-2.5) (@ Indianapolis)

Tennessee (30-7, 12-6. 4th)
KenPom rating: 5
Tempo: 349
Experience: 14
Continuity: 164
Tennessee won 13 of its last 16 games.
Vols are 16-0 outside the SEC this season.
Tennessee is #20 team on offensive boards.
Vols have #3 eFG% defense in the country.
Tennessee is 17-7 vs top 50 teams.
Tennessee played four guys 30:00+ in Friday’s win.
Since 1997, Vols are 0-2 SU in Elite 8 games; they’re trying to get to the Final Four for the first time (Rick Barnes was there in 2003, with Texas).

Houston (33-4, 19-1. 1st)
KenPom rating: 3
Tempo: 360
Experience: 39
Continuity: 8
Houston won its last sixteen games.
Cougars have #4 eFG% defense in country.
Cougars are forcing turnovers 21.3% of time (#20)
Houston is shooting 39.8% on the arc (#1)
Cougars are 10-3 vs teams ranked in top 50.
Houston lost in Elite 8 to Villanova in 2022.
Cougars played four starters 35:00+ Friday

SEC is the #1 league this year, Big X #3.
Last 4+ years, #1-seeds are 6-2 ATS in Elite 8 games.

Michigan State vs Auburn (-9.5) (@ Atlanta)

Michigan State (30-6, 17-3. 1st)
KenPom rating: 7
Tempo: 179
Experience: 214
Continuity: 81
MSU won 11 of its last 12 games.
Spartans are 12-2 in non-league games.
MSU is 15-4 vs teams ranked in top 50.
Spartans have #15 eFG% defense in country.
MSU is #8 team in country on defensive boards.
Last 20 years, Spartans are 4-1 in Elite 8 games.

Auburn (31-5, 15-3. 1st)
KenPom rating: 4
Tempo: 134
Experience: 24
Continuity: 40
Auburn won four of its last five games.
Tigers are 15-1 outside the SEC.
Auburn is 21-5 vs top 50 opponents.
Tigers have #11 eFG% defense in country.
Auburn is shooting 55.8% inside arc (#32)
Auburn is 3-0 vs Big 18 teams TY, winning by 38-18-13 points.
Tigers made it to the Final Four six years ago.

SEC is the #1 league, Big 18 the #2 league
Last 4+ years, #1-seeds are 6-2 ATS in Elite 8 games.

 

[Udog 3,450]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Sunday, March 30

NCAAB

Sunday, March 30

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Tennessee VS Houston
Tennessee are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
Tennessee are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games against an opponent in the Big 12 conference.
Tennessee are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played in March.
Houston are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games.
Houston are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.

Michigan State VS Auburn
Michigan State are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Michigan State's last 13 games.
Michigan State are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games.
Michigan State are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.
Auburn are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Auburn's last 5 games.
Auburn are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games.
Auburn are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[CNOTES 3,265]

Sunday, March 30​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
TENN at HOU	02:20 PM	TENN +3.0 U 124.5	+500 +500
MSU at AUB	05:05 PM	MSU +5.0 U 147.5	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES 3,265]

NCAA COLLEGE HOOPS BEST BETS !

03/30/2025................2 - 2 - 0....................50.00%..................- 1.00
03/29/2024................3 - 1 - 0....................75.00%..................+ 9.50
03/28/2025................3 - 5 - 0....................37.50.....................- 12.50
03/27/2025................3 - 3 - 0.....................50.00%..................- 1.50
03/25/2025................4 - 2 - 0.....................66.66%...................+ 12.00
03/24/2025................2 - 3 - 0.....................40.00%...................- 6.50
03/23/2025..............14 - 13 - 1...................51.85%..................- 1.50
03/22/2025................10 - 6 - 1...................62.50%..................+ 17.00
03/21/2025...............10 - 16 - 0...................38.46%..................- 38.00
03/20/2025...............11 - 14 - 0....................44,99%..................- 22.00
03/19/2025...................8 - 6 - 1....................57.14%...................+ 7.00
03/18/2025...................5 - 8 - 0....................38.46%...................- 19.00
03/16/2025...................4 - 6 - 0....................40.00%...................- 13.00
03/15/2025.................12 - 11 - 1.................52.19%...................- 0.50
03/14/2025.................22 - 10 - 1.................68.75%...................+ 55.00
03/13/2025.................15 - 14 - 0.................51.72%....................- 2.00
03/12/2025.................16 - 18 - 0.................47.05%....................- 19.00
03/11/2025.................15 - 15 - 0..................50.00%....................- 7,50
03/10/2025.................12 - 5 - 0....................70.58%....................+ 32.50
03/09/2025.................20 - 20 - 1.................50.00%.....................- 10.00
03/08/2025.................16 - 19 - 0.................45.71%.....................- 24.50
03/07/2025.................15 - 13 - 1.................53.57%.....................+ 3.50
03/06/2025.................18 - 16 - 2.................52.94%......................+ 2.00
03/05/2025....................7 - 8 - 0.................46.66%......................- 9.00
03/04/2025..................5 - 10 - 0.................33.33%.....................- 30.00
03/03/2025....................3 - 9 - 0.................25.00%......................- 34.50
03/02/2025....................4 - 5 - 0.................44.44%......................- 7.50
03/01/2025.................34 - 25 - 0.................57.62%......................+ 32.50

TOTALS:...................304 - 283 - 9.................51.78%......................- 88.50

 

[CNOTES 3,265]

Monday’s 6-pack:
Six players who homered in each of their team’s first four games of a season:
1971— Willie Mays
1998— Mark McGwire
2011— Nelson Cruz
2013— Chris Davis
2016— Trevor Story
2019— Christian Yelich

Quote of the Day
“If you believe you can, you’re halfway there.”
Theodore Roosevelt

Monday’s quiz
In the last ten NCAA Tournaments, how many times has a #1-seed won the national title?

Sunday’s quiz
New Orleans Saints have gone the longest since the last time they drafted a quarterback in the first round; they drafted Archie Manning, in 1971.

Saturday’s quiz
In the movie Major League, Tom Berenger plays the catcher for Cleveland.

*************************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday……..​

— All four #1-seeds get to the Final Four for the second time (2008 was the other)

— Houston 69, Tennessee 50
Tennessee shot 28.8% from the floor.
Cougars led 34-15 at halftime.
Houston is 30-1 since December 1st.
Houston is the first #1-seed since North Carolina in 2017 to make the Final Four by beating the hardest-possible opponents, the #8-4-2 seeds, to get there.

— Auburn 70, Michigan State 64
Auburn raced out to a 23-8 lead, led 33-24 at halftime.
Johni Broome had 25 points, 14 rebounds in 29:00.
Auburn-Florida is a Final Four game between SEC rivals Saturday in San Antonio.

— Ex-Maryland coach Kevin Willard bolted the Terrapins and signed to coach Villanova.
Maryland was 65-39/32-28 in three years under Willard, going 3-2 in NCAA Tourney games, making the Sweet 16 this season. It was the first Sweet 16 for Maryland since 2016.
Villanova was 54-47/31-29 in three years under Kyle Neptune, missing the NCAA’s all three years. Neptune replaced Jay Wright, who won two national titles with the Wildcats.

— New Mexico signed former Cal-San Diego coach Eric Olen to be its new coach; Olen led the Tritons to a 30-5 record and an NCAA Tourney bid in their first year of being eligible.

New Mexico went 88-49/40-33 under Richard Pitino, 75-30 the last three years. Pitino left Albuquerque to become the new coach at Xavier.

— Cal-San Diego promoted from within, hired assistant coach Clint Allard to be its new coach; Allard played for the Tritons, has been an assistant there the last 14 years.

— Earlier this season, Timberwolves’ star Anthony Edwards was suspended for one game; his missing that game, one game, cost Edwards $242,393.

— Famous birthdays, March 31st
Shirley Jones, 91
Christopher Walken, 82
Rhea Perlman, 77
Mick Luckhurst, 67
Ron Brown, 64
JR Reid, 57
Steve Smith, 56
Kamren Curl, 26

— Four baseball teams had Sunday off; why the bleep are teams getting Sundays off?

— There have been 53 baseball games played so far:
In 17 of those 53 games, the game-winning run scored from the 7th inning on, which is a high percentage of close games.
106 starting pitchers, Chris Bassitt (106 PT) was the only guy to throw 100+ pitches.
27 pitchers threw 90+ pitches.
32 pitchers lasted 6+ innings; only 5 lasted seven innings.

— Arizona 10, Cubs 6- Diamondbacks scored eight runs in 8th inning of their comeback win.
Arizona lost its DH when Ketel Marte went in to play 2B in the 6th inning; P Ryne Nelson got a hit, scored a run and knocked one in during the 8-run uprising.

— Marlins 3, Pirates 2
Marlins are 3-1, with all three wins walk-off wins.

— Padres 5, Braves 0
Nick Pivetta allowed one hit in seven IP for San Diego.
Braves are 0-4; they got shut out the last two games.

— Rangers 3, Red Sox 2
Jacob deGrom tossed five shutout IP, threw 73 pitches.

— Nationals 5, Phillies 1
Mitchell Parker allowed 9 baserunners in 6.1 IP, but didn’t allow a run.
Nathaniel Lowe went 3-4 with a homer and two RBI

— New York 12, Brewers 3
New York scored 32 runs the last two games; their starting pitcher didn’t get the win in either game.
In three games, Aaron Judge has scored eight times, knocked in 11 runs. He doesn’t use the new type of bat (which is 100% legal, by the way)

— Angels 3, White Sox 2
Kyren Paris hit an 8th inning home run to break a 2-2 tie, after a 2-hour, 48-minute rain delay, as the Halos won two of three games in Chicago.

— Cardinals 9, Twins 2
St Louis outscored the Twins 19-6 in sweeping the three-game series.
Cardinals’ #6/#7 hitters both went 3-4, combined to score five runs.