CNOTES 2023-2024 NBA TRENDS, NEWS, BEST BETS AND OPINIONS THRU THE PLAYOFFS !

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ATLANTA is 35-55 ATS (-25.5 Units) in road games in the last 3 seasons.

INDIANA is 50-32 Over (14.8 Units) in home games in the last 3 seasons.

BOSTON is 16-4 Under (11.6 Units) on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

HOUSTON is 58-86 ATS (-36.6 Units) as a dog in the last 3 seasons.

BROOKLYN is 18-43 ATS (-29.3 Units) in home games as a home favorite in the last 3 seasons.

MIAMI is 164-215 ATS (-72.5 Units) in home games in the first half of the season since 1996.

MINNESOTA is 12-3 Over (8.7 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-8 ATS (13.2 Units) in road games in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons.

NEW ORLEANS are 41-25 Under (13.5 Units) as a road underdog in the last 3 seasons.

UTAH is 12-3 ATS (8.7 Units) as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons.

DALLAS are 156-111 ATS (33.9 Units) in road games vs. division opponents since 1996.

LA CLIPPERS are 15-3 Under (11.7 Units) in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
 

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NBA
Dunkel

Wednesday, October 25


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NBA

Wednesday, October 25


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Trend Report
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WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 25

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
WAS at IND07:00 PMIND -5.0
O 235.5
+500 +500
BOS at NY07:00 PMNY +3.5
U 223.0
+500 +500
HOU at ORL07:00 PMO 220.5+500
ATL at CHA07:00 PMATL -3.5
U 236.0
+500 +500
MIN at TOR07:30 PMTOR +1.0
U 221.5
+500 +500
CLE at BK07:30 PMCLE -2.5
U 219.0
+500 +500
DET at MIA07:30 PMDET +9.5
U 218.5
+500 +500
NO at MEM08:00 PMNO +1.0
U 224.5
+500 +500
OKC at CHI08:00 PMOKC +2.5
O 225.5
+500 +500
SAC at UTA09:00 PMSAC -2.0
O 234.0
+500 +500
DAL at SA09:30 PMDAL -4.5
O 230.5
+500 +500
POR at LAC10:30 PMPOR +9.0
O 225.5
+500 +500
 

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NBA OCTOBER BEST BETS !

10/25/2023.....................14 - 5..............................73.68%............................+ 42.50
10/24/2023.......................3 - 1..............................75.00%............................+ 9.50


TOTALS.............................17 - 6..............................79.91%............................+ 52.00
 

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Thursday’s 6-pack:
Passing yardage leaders in college football:
2,576— Michael Penix, Wash
2,573— Jayden Daniels, LSU
2,433— Brayden Schager, Hawai’i
2,420— Shedeur Sanders, Colo
2,280— Austin Reed, Western Kentucky
2,277— Caleb Williams, USC

Quote of the Day
“It’s silly, silly meaning my genuine feeling is that we have too many smart people that have looked at this and said we should be doing it and we haven’t taken the time to actually move it forward.”
LSU football coach Brian Kelly, on why the SEC hasn’t adopted headset communication between the sidelines and the QB, which would eliminate sign stealing issues

Thursday’s quiz
Which NFL team is the only one that hasn’t covered a spread (0-5-1) so far this season?

Wednesday’s quiz
Chris Paul has been in the NBA for 18 years; he played his college basketball at Wake Forest.

Tuesday’s quiz
Detroit Lions are the only NFC team that has never played in a Super Bowl.


*********************************************

Two dens for Thursday: NHL trends, and a story from the past

NHL trends (thru October 25)
I’ll try to post this once a week……..

Anaheim 2-4
— lost three of last four games.
— Ducks are 1-2 at home, 1-2 on road
— under 5-1

Arizona 3-3
— 1-0 at home, 2-3 on road.
— over 3-2 on road

Boston 6-0
— won all six of their games.
— under 2-0 at home, 3-1 on road.
— allowed seven goals in six games.

Buffalo 3-4
— 2-3 at home, 1-1 on road.
— under 5-2, 4-1 at home

Calgary 2-4-1
— lost five of last six games.
— 1-1 at home, 1-5 on road.
— over 4-3
— scored four goals in last three games

Carolina 3-4
— lost last three games, outscored 16-8
— 1-0 at home, 2-4 on road.
— over 6-1

Chicago 2-5
— lost five of last six games.
— 0-2 at home, 2-3 on road.
— under 6-1
— last three games, were outscored 12-3

Colorado 6-0
— Colorado won all six of its games
— 2-0 at home, 4-0 on road.
— over 3-3
— outscored opponents 28-12

Columbus 3-2-1
— 2-3 at home, 1-0 on road.
— under 4-1 on road

Dallas 4-0-1
— won four of first five games
— only loss was in OT
— 2-0 at home, 2-1 on road.
— under 4-1
— three of five games went to OT.

Detroit 5-1-1
— won five of last six games
— 3-1 at home, 2-1 on road.
— last four games went over total.

Edmonton 1-5
— lost five of first six games.
— 0-2 at home, 1-3 on road.
— over 3-1 on road

Florida 3-3
— won three of last four games.
— 2-1 at home, 1-2 on road.
— under 2-1 at home, over 2-1 on road

Los Angeles 3-2-1
— won three of last four games.
— 1-3 at home, 2-0 on road.
— over is 5-1, 4-0 at home

Minnesota 3-2-1
— 2-2 at home, 1-1 on road.
— last five games went over.
— allowed 6 goals in wins, 19 in losses.

Montreal 3-2-1
— 2-2 at home, 1-1 on road.
— over 3-3

Nashville 3-4
— 2-2 at home, 1-2 on road.
— under 4-1-1 last six games

New Jersey 3-2-1
— 1-3 at home, 2-0 on road.
— over is 6-0
— 4 of 6 games decided by one goal

NY Islanders 2-2-1
— lost last three games.
— 2-2 at home, 0-1 on road.
— under is 3-2
— allowed 2 goals in wins, 15 in losses

NY Rangers 4-2
— won three of last four games.
— 1-1 at home, 3-1 on road.
— under 5-1, 2-0 at home

Ottawa 3-3
— 3-2 at home, 0-1 on road.
— over 6-0
— allowed 5 goals in wins, 16 in losses

Philadelphia 3-3
— 2-0 at home, 1-3 on road.
— under 3-1 in their last four games.
— allowed 3 goals in wins, 13 in losses

Pittsburgh 2-4
— lost last three games, giving up 14 goals.
— 1-2 at home, 1-2 on road.
— under 2-1 at home, 2-1 on road

St Louis 2-3
— 2-1 at home, 0-2 on road.
— under is 4-1
— scored 11 goals in five games

San Jose 0-6
— lost their first six games.
— 0-4 at home, 0-2 on road.
— under is 4-1-1
— scored eight goals in six games

Seattle 2-5
— lost five of first seven games.
— 1-2 at home, 1-3 on road.
— under is 5-2, 3-1 on road

Tampa Bay 3-4
— 3-1 at home, 0-3 on road.
— over 3-1 at home, 2-1 on road
— 0-2 in OT/SO

Toronto 4-2
— 2-1 at home, 2-1 on road.
— under 3-1 last four games
— 2-0 in OT/SO
— scored 21 goals in wins, 2 in losses

Vancouver 4-2
— 1-0 at home, 3-2 on road.
— over 4-2

Vegas 7-0
— won their first seven games.
— 4-0 at home, 3-0 on road.
— under 4-0 home, over 2-1 road

Washington 1-4
— lost four of first five games.
— 1-2 at home, 0-2 on road.
— under 4-1

Winnipeg 3-3
— 2-2 at home, 1-1 on road.
— over 2-1-1 home, 1-1 road
— allowed 14 goals in first four games, 4 goals in last two games.

**********************************************

A story from the past……..

One of my favorite movies was on today, Searching for Bobby Fischer; Joe Mantegna is a sportswriter who is surprised to find out that his 11-year old son is a chess prodigy. It is a great movie: Mantegna, Ben Kingsley, Lawrence Fishburne, William H Macy.
Anyway, when I was in 8th grade 50 years ago, chess was a big deal. Bobby Fischer was a quirky chess grandmaster who was playing Russian Boris Spassky for the world title, and it got a ton of attention— for a couple years in the early 70’s, chess was a big deal.
A friend of my parents had taught me how to play; in May of 1973, there was a tournament of all the Catholic grade schools in Albany County, probably 50 or so kids on a Saturday morning. Two kids from our school went; I had never beaten the other kid. Ever.

So our 8th grade teacher picks us up at the other kid’s house to go to the tournament, but we played a game before he got there, and I beat him.
This had never happened before.
We get to the tournament, played in a ratty old gym, and the games begin. I won my first game, but the other kid, who seriously was a much better player than me, he got beat and just like that, he was eliminated. He very rarely played sports as a kid, and the competition apparently wasn’t his thing. I sucked at sports, but enjoyed playing.

Thinking about it, it was a lot like the scenes in this movie; just a bunch of nerdy kids hunched over chess boards, studying their moves.
While my parents’ friend taught me how to play chess, I had my own ideas, which weren’t better ideas, but I was incapable of grinding out moves, playing patterns, the way great players do.

I just played fast, got my queen out as quickly as possible, tried to do damage with the queen, and it often got people off their games, because it was different.

So I win two more games, and now there are a lot fewer kids in the gym; my 4th game, the board is set up with plastic chess pieces. My opponent requests that we switch to a wooden chess set, a classic Bobby Fischer mind game move, which I had no idea of at the time.
He crushed me, not even close and my teacher took the two of us home. I was happy that at least I won a few games— had never played in a tournament before.

The phone rings in our house and it is a nun from the chess tournament; I had lost, but I wasn’t done playing yet, there were still games to be played to determine who won the championship, so my father drove me back to the gym and he had to sit there watching his nerdy kid play chess.
I won two more games, and the whole event came down to this: I was playing this girl in the last game of the tournament. If she won, she won the championship and I finished 3rd.

If I won, the jerk who beat me won the championship and I finished 2nd. (don’t ask, I can’t remember how/why they ran the tournament like this, but they did)

Seriously, I didn’t like that kid after he beat me; I went over to look at the 2nd/3rd place prizes. If the 3rd place prize was good, I was considering losing on purpose so he wouldn’t win the tournament, but the 3rd place price was cruddy, and the 2nd place prize was this small plastic scroll that at least looked like a trophy, so I tried to win.

(This is where I realize that I was an over-thinker, even at age 13)
Anyway, we sit down and play the last game; my opponent was very nervous; her hand was shaking when she moved her chess pieces. It didn’t take long to beat her, and the jerk won the championship trophy.
50 years later, the small plastic scroll is still hanging in my living room. That was a fun day.
 

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MILWAUKEE is 16-5 ATS (10.5 Units) as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

PHOENIX is 34-19 ATS (13.1 Units) off a road win in the last 3 seasons.




NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, October 26


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NBA

Thursday, October 26


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Trend Report
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Philadelphia @ Milwaukee
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Philadelphia is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games at home

Phoenix @ LA Lakers
Phoenix
Phoenix is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games on the road
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
LA Lakers is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home


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NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 26


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THURSDAY, OCTOBER 26

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
PHI at MIL07:30 PMMIL -6.0
O 227.5
+500 +500
PHO at LAL10:00 PMPHO +6.5
U 227.0
+500 +500
 

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NBA OCTOBER BEST BETS !

10/26/2023........................3 - 1.............................75.00%.............................+ 9.50
10/25/2023.....................14 - 5..............................73.68%............................+ 42.50
10/24/2023.......................3 - 1..............................75.00%............................+ 9.50


TOTALS.............................20 - 7.............................74.07%............................+ 61.50
 

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Friday’s 6-pack:
All-time leaders in rushing touchdowns:
164— Emmitt Smith
145— LaDainian Tomlinson
123— Marcus Allen
120— Adrian Peterson
110— Walter Payton
106— Jim Brown

Quote of the Day
“I think everyone should go to college and get a degree, and then spend six months as a bartender and six months as a cab driver. Then they would really be educated.”
Al McGuire

Friday’s quiz
Where did Texas football coach Steve Sarkisian play his college football?
Hint: he was a quarterback

Thursday’s quiz
Carolina Panthers are only NFL team that hasn’t covered a spread (0-5-1) this season.

Wednesday’s quiz
Chris Paul has been in the NBA for 18 years; he played his college basketball at Wake Forest.

***************************************

Friday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here……..

Bills 24, Buccaneers 18
Bills in first half: 33 plays, 234 yards, 17 points.
Bills in 2nd half: 35 plays, 184 yards, 7 points.
Bills allowed 10-3-20-9-18 points in wins, 22-25-29 in losses.
Allen was 31-40/324 passing, with two TD’s.
Buccaneers lost four of their last five games.
Tampa is 3-0 ATS as road dog this year (6-13-3 from 2017-22)
Tampa scored 20-27-26 points in wins, 11-6-13-18 in losses.
Bucs’ opponents’ team total: under 6-0-1
Tampa Bay threw a Hail Mary 55 yards to the end zone on the last play; had Bucs’ WR Chris Godwin looked up a little quicker, ball would’ve hit him in the hands.

— Steelers/Cardinals are only NFL teams that have been outgained in every game this season; the 4-2 Steelers have been outgained by 110 yards/game, the 1-6 Cardinals by 48.4 yards/game.

— Odd scheduling by the NFL; six teams had last week off, so only 13 games were played, while this week, all 32 teams are playing, then next week, four teams have the week off.

— Sounds like Tennessee Titans are going to start rookie QB Will Levis against Atlanta Sunday, but will also use backup Malik Willis at times. Starting QB Ryan Tannehill (ankle) like won’t play in the game, which sets Levis up to make his first NFL start.

— Minnesota Vikings have thrown 16 TD passes this season; they haven’t run for a TD yet.

— Air Force football team is 7-0 this season; they’re ranked in the top 20 in the country for the first time since 2002.

— Movie of the Day: Punchline (1988)— A medical school dropout and a housewife/mom try to make it as stand-up comedians. They become friends and help each other out at a Manhattan comedy club.
Tom Hanks, Sally Field, John Goodman; hard to go wrong with those stars.

— Tough stretch for Philadelphia sports teams; they’ve lost seven Game 7’s in a row, with 76ers losing last four Game 7’s, Flyers losing last two and now the Phillies losing Game 7 of the NLCS.

— This year’s Diamondbacks are second team ever (1987 Twins) to make it to the World Series, even though they had a negative run differential (-15) during the regular season. Twins had a minus-20 run differential in ’87.

— Only twice in MLB history has the road team won all seven games in a best-of-7 series; the 2019 Nationals won the World Series, the 2023 Rangers won the ALCS— both of them beat the Astros in those series.

— Odds to win the World Series: Rangers -170, Diamondbacks +150

— Arizona Diamondbacks made the World Series with a payroll of $116.5M, 21st in MLB.
By way of contrast, in the near future, two guys on the Milwaukee Bucks, Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo, will be earning a total of $122.1M/year. Two guys.

— Dodgers’ 1B Freddie Freeman has missed only 11 games the last six years, while knocking in 557 runs, scoring 626 runs in 859 games. A Hall of Famer, for sure.

— Jacksonville State 41, FIU 16
Gamecocks are 7-2, in their first year of I-A football.
Jacksonville State ran ball 55 times for 265 yards.
FIU had nine penalties for 92 yards; JSU had one penalty, for 15 yards.

— Texas-El Paso 37, Sam Houston State 34

0-8 Bearkats led 27-13 with 2:00 left in third quarter.
UTEP kicked 32-yard FG with 0:03 left for the win.
Miners ran ball 40 times for 222 yards.

— Virginia Tech 38, Syracuse 10
Hokies led 30-3 at halftime.
Rushing yards: Tech 318, Syracuse 0
3rd down conversions: Tech 8-16, Syracuse 0-9

— Georgia Southern 44, Georgia State 21
Eagles threw for 334 yards (9.3 yards/attempt)
Georgia State ran ball 40 times for 290 yards.
Both teams are 6-2.
 

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DETROIT is 18-35 ATS (-20.5 Units) in road games off a close road loss of 3 points or less since 1996.

MEMPHIS are 9-0 ATS (9 Units) in home games on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.

CLEVELAND is 27-10 ATS (16 Units) in home games in the first half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

NEW YORK is 17-5 ATS (11.5 Units) in road games after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons.

MIAMI is 9-0 Under (9 Units) off a close home win by 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

TORONTO is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) after allowing 100 points or less in the last 3 seasons.

HOUSTON is 22-42 ATS (-24.2 Units) off a road loss in the last 3 seasons.

BROOKLYN is 79-49 Under (25.1 Units) when the total >=220 in the last 3 seasons.

UTAH is 100-70 Under (23 Units) in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) since 1996.

PORTLAND is 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) as a home underdog in the last 3 seasons.

GOLDEN STATE is 15-4 Over (10.6 Units) on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
 

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NBA

Friday, October 27


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Trend Report
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Denver @ Memphis
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against Memphis
Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Memphis
Memphis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver

Detroit @ Charlotte
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Detroit's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Detroit's last 18 games when playing Charlotte
Charlotte
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Charlotte's last 8 games at home
Charlotte is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games when playing Detroit

Miami @ Boston
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Miami's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Boston
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

New York @ Atlanta
New York
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New York's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New York's last 12 games
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games

Oklahoma City @ Cleveland
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland's last 8 games

Houston @ San Antonio
Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Antonio's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Antonio's last 8 games at home

Toronto @ Chicago
Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Chicago
Chicago
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto

Brooklyn @ Dallas
Brooklyn
Brooklyn is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Brooklyn's last 9 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games

LA Clippers @ Utah
LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games
Utah
Utah is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Clippers

Golden State @ Sacramento
Golden State
Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Sacramento
Golden State is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
Sacramento
Sacramento is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Sacramento's last 12 games

Orlando @ Portland
Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games on the road
Orlando is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Portland
Portland is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing Orlando
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games


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FRIDAY, OCTOBER 27

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
DEN at MEM07:00 PMDEN -5.5
U 220.5
+500 +500
DET at CHA07:00 PMCHA -4.5
U 226.0
+500 +500
OKC at CLE07:30 PMOKC +4.0
U 228.5
+500 +500
MIA at BOS07:30 PMBOS -8.5
U 218.0
+500 +500
NY at ATL07:30 PMNY +1.0
O 229.5
+500 +500
HOU at SA08:00 PMSA -3.0
O 225.0
+500 +500
TOR at CHI08:00 PMCHI -2.5
U 217.0
+500 +500
BK at DAL08:30 PMDAL -6.0
O 230.0
+500 +500
LAC at UTA09:30 PMLAC -4.5
O 227.5
+500 +500
ORL at POR10:00 PMORL -2.5
O 222.5
+500 +500
GS at SAC10:00 PMSAC -2.5
U 237.0
+500 +500
 

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Messages
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NBA OCTOBER BEST BETS !

10/27/2023........................9 - 7.............................56.25%.............................+ 6.50
10/26/2023........................3 - 1.............................75.00%.............................+ 9.50
10/25/2023.....................14 - 5..............................73.68%............................+ 42.50
10/24/2023.......................3 - 1..............................75.00%............................+ 9.50


TOTALS.............................29 - 14.............................67.44%..........................+ 68.00
 

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