Cnotes 2020 Playoff's News. Trends. Picks !

[CNOTES]

711DENVER -712 LA LAKERS
DENVER is 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) when trailing in a playoff series over the last 2 seasons.








NBA
Dunkel


Saturday, September 26

Denver @ LA Lakers


Game 711-712
September 26, 2020 @ 9:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Denver
123.769
LA Lakers
123.210
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
Even
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 5
214
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+5); Under








NBA
Long Sheet


Saturday, September 26


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


DENVER (55 - 36) vs. LA LAKERS (63 - 22) - 9/26/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when trailing in a playoff series this season.
DENVER is 40-27 ATS (+10.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 8-6 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 9-6 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------







NBA


Saturday, September 26


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Denver @ LA Lakers
Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games when playing LA Lakers
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
LA Lakers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

 

[CNOTES]

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 26


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


DEN at LAL 09:00 PM


DEN +5.5


O 215.0

 

[CNOTES]

COMPLETED PICKS


Past Completed Picks


DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


09/26/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/25/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/24/2020 1-0-1 75.00% +500 Detail
09/23/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/22/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
09/20/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
09/19/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/18/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/15/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/13/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/12/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
09/11/2020 3-0-1 87.50% +1500 Detail
09/10/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
09/09/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/08/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
09/07/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/06/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/05/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
09/04/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
09/03/2020 0-4-0 0.00% -2200 Detail
09/02/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/01/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail


Totals.......31-35-2........46.96%.....-37.50

 

[CNOTES]

That best portion of a good man's life; His little, nameless, unremembered acts Of kindness and of love.




Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack


Major league leaders in hits:
76— Jose Abreu, Trea Turner
75— Marcell Ozuna
72— Freddie Freeman
70— Whit Merrifield
69— DJ LeMahieu
68— Trevor Story, Manny Machado


I apologize for not posting the SuperContest picks; as of 3am Saturday night, they haven’t been posted- they haven’t been posting them on Saturday this year.


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 203,481
Please wear a mask when you go out.




**********


Armadillo: Sunday's Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday


13) Mississippi State 44, LSU 34:
— Stanford transfer Costello was 36-60 for 623 yards, five TD’s; 623 freakin’ yards.
— Three different MSU receivers had 120+ receiving yards.
— Bulldogs turned ball over four times (-2), still scored 44 points.


12) Mike Leach is a legend, as far as coaching quarterbacks goes; his record against the spread as a road underdog:
— Texas Tech 15-12 ATS
— Washington State 19-11 ATS
— Mississippi State 1-0 ATS
— total 35-23, 60.3%


11) Kansas State 38, Oklahoma 35:
— Sooners led 35-14 with 2:00 left in third quarter.
— K-State upset Oklahoma for second year in a row.
— Wildcats blocked a punt for second week in a row.


Since 2009, Oklahoma has lost six games when they were favored by 20+ points; during that time, no one else in the country has lost more than three such games.


10) Texas 63, Texas Tech 56 OT:
— Seems like lot of teams haven’t practiced tackling much this fall.
— Tech led 56-41 with 3:00 left in the game; quite a comeback.


9) Upsets of the Day:
— Kansas State (+28) 38, Oklahoma 35
— Mississippi State (+16.5) 44, LSU 34
— UTEP (+9.5) 31, UL-Monroe 6
— Syracuse (+7.5) 37, Georgia Tech 20


8) Lakers 117, Nuggets 107 (LA wins 4-1)
— James/Davis combined for 65 points.
— Lakers held Jamal Murray to 19 points.
— Caruso was +16 in 26:00 off the bench.


7) AL Central update:
— Twins 7, Reds 3— Minnesota leads division by a game
— White Sox 9, Cubs 5— Pale Hose snapped a six-game skid.
— Pirates 8, Indians 0— Cleveland needs a win Sunday and a Chicago loss to get home field in the first round of the playoffs.


6) Iowa State 37, TCU 34— Horned Frogs scored a TD at the gun to make it 37-34; spread was either TCU +2.5 or +3, but they didn’t kick the PAT, which made some people happy, and other people very unhappy.


5) Louisiana 30, Georgia Southern 28— Ragin’ Cajuns’ kicker split the uprights with a 53-yard field goal on the last play of the game, as Louisiana improved to 3-0- their last two wins were by a total of five points, and they were a 13-point underdog in the other game.


4) Georgia 37, Arkansas 10— Hogs led 7-5 at halftime. Here is Georgia’s QB situation:
— Presumptive starter Jamie Newman opted out of this season.
— USC transfer JT Daniels hasn’t been cleared to play yet.
— 3rd-stringer D’Wan Mathis went 8-17 for 55 yards, was benched.
— 4th-stringer Stetson Bennett, a 5-10 former walk-on, was 20-29 for 211 yards, two TD’s.


3) UCF 51, East Carolina 28— Officials in this game may need rotator cuff surgery soon; Golden Knights were penalized 19 times for 139 yards. ECU was penalized 11 times for 105 yards.


2) COVID has made subbing players in/out easier in goal-line situations in college football, since the benches now extend to the 15-yard line, instead of the 30, the way it used to be.


1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they don’t):
AL East: Tampa Bay, New York
AL Central: Minnesota, Clev/CWS
AL West: Oakland, Houston
AL wild cards: Clev/CWS, Toronto


NL East: Atlanta, Miami
NL Central: Chicago, St Louis
NL West: Los Angeles, San Diego
NL wild cards: Cincinnati, Milwaukee

 

[CNOTES]

717BOSTON -718 MIAMI
BOSTON is 54-31 ATS (19.9 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.








NBA
Dunkel


Sunday, September 27

Boston @ Miami


Game 717-718
September 27, 2020 @ 8:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Boston
126.885
Miami
125.320
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 1 1/2
220
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 3 1/2
214
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+3 1/2); Over








NBA
Long Sheet


Sunday, September 27


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BOSTON (58 - 30) vs. MIAMI (55 - 32) - 9/27/2020, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 46-30 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 50-34 ATS (+12.6 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 41-30 ATS (+8.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 39-29 ATS (+7.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 9-6 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 8-7 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
8 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------







NBA


Sunday, September 27


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Boston @ Miami
Boston
Boston is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Boston

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 27


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


BOS at MIA 07:30 PM


MIA +3.0


O 214.5

 

[CNOTES]

COMPLETED PICKS


Past Completed Picks......REVISED TOTALS 09/27/20


DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


09/27/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
09/26/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/25/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/24/2020 1-0-1 75.00% +500 Detail
09/23/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/22/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
09/20/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
09/19/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/18/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/15/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/13/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/12/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
09/11/2020 3-0-1 87.50% +1500 Detail
09/10/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
09/09/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/08/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
09/07/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/06/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/05/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
09/04/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
09/03/2020 0-4-0 0.00% -2200 Detail
09/02/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/01/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail


Totals.......33-35-2........48.52%.....-27,50

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack


Six interesting spreads for Week 4 NFL games:
— Chargers @ Tampa Bay (-7)
— Ravens (-13) @ Washington
— NJ Giants @ LA Rams (-13)
— New England @ Kansas City (-7)
— Buffalo (-3) @ Las Vegas
— Philadelphia @ San Francisco (-7)


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 205,268
Please wear a mask when you go out.




**********


Armadillo: Wednesday's Den: Mid-week musings……..


13) Tennessee Titans had three players, five staff members test positive for COVID; they shut down their facility until Saturday. Minnesota Vikings also shut down their facility until their contact tracing is finished, since they hosted the Titans Sunday. No word yet if this changes this weekend’s schedule at all.


12) NFL teams with the most plays of 20+ yards this season:
19— Buffalo
18— LA Rams
17— Dallas
16— Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota


11) NFL teams with the fewest plays of 20+ yards this season:
6— Cincinnati
7— NJ Jets
8— Carolina
9— NJ Giants, New Orleans, Miami, Tennessee


10) NFL defenses that have allowed the fewest plays of 20+ yards this year:
8— Tampa Bay
9— Jacksonville, LA Rams, LA Chargers
10— Kansas City, NJ Giants


9) NFL defenses that allowed the most plays of 20+ yards this year:
18— Atlanta
15— Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota
14— Detroit, Seattle, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Baltimore


8) Lamar Jackson has started 27 NFL games; the team leading at halftime won every game. Ravens trailed six of those games at the half.


7) Denver Broncos will start their 3rd different QB in four weeks Thursday, when Brett Rypien gets his first NFL start against the Jets in Swamp Stadium.


6) Cincinnati Reds are first major league team EVER to have more walks than singles over the course of a season; Reds walked 239 times, had 221 singles. Granted it was a 60-game season, but that’s a lot of walks, or not a lot of singles.


5) Houston 4, Minnesota 1— Greinke got out of a 30-pitch first inning without allowing a run, but only lasted four innings. Valdez was stellar with five shutout innings of relief, Brantley knocked in a couple run and Minnesota lost its 17th straight playoff game, dating back to 2004.


4) Chicago 4, Oakland 1— Lucas Giolito had a perfect game into the 7th inning; Jose Abreu hit a 2-run homer, as the White Sox won in their first playoff game since 2008.


Giolito’s grandfather was an actor who played Susan’s father on Seinfeld.


3) Tampa Bay 3, Toronto 1— Blake Snell allowed three baserunners while throwing 5.2 scoreless innings; Tampa Bay had gotten saves from 12 different pitchers this season, but Fairbanks got this save, and he wasn’t one of those 12 guys. Incredible juggling of a pitching staff.


2) New York 12, Cleveland 3— Shane Bieber picked a bad night to have a bad night; he gave up seven runs over 4.2 IP. New York hit four home runs; they send Tanaka out to the moumd for the two-game sweep Wednesday.


1) The presidential debate was so tedious/annoying last night, I put the WNBA game on- much better to watch. What an embarrassment. Our country desires better than this.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA public betting, line movement September 30
Patrick Everson


The Miami Heat have seven SU and ATS wins as underdogs in the 2020 NBA Playoffs. They opened as five-point underdogs for Wednesday's NBA Finals Game 1 against the Los Angeles Lakers.


NBA betting odds are on the board for Game 1 of the NBA Finals, set for Wednesday night. The surprising Miami Heat, who are a torrid 12-3 SU and ATS in the postseason, take on the Los Angeles Lakers at 9 p.m. ET.


DraftKings Sportsbook provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Wednesday’s matchup, along with odds to win the NBA championship.


NBA line movement


UPDATE 8 P.M. ET TUESDAY: BetMGM in Nevada opened the Lakers -5.5 and the line is now -4.5, but that's not indicative of the bulk of the action, nor the need. See below for details.


---


Miami’s run through the playoffs includes winning seven games SU and ATS from the underdog role. The Heat put away the Boston Celtics in six games in the Eastern Conference finals, closing with a 125-113 victory Sunday night. The Lakers are 12-3 SU and 9-5-1 ATS in the playoffs, finishing off the Nuggets 117-107 in Game 5 of the Western Conference finals Saturday.


DraftKings opened the Lakers -5 on Monday morning, and the line stuck there through Monday night. Likewise, the total opened and stuck at 217.5 Monday.


UPDATE 8 P.M. ET TUESDAY: BetMGM Nevada's Jeff Stoneback said sharp play on the Heat +5.5 helped bring the number down to 4.5 for Wednesday's Game 1.
NBA public betting


UPDATE 8 P.M. ET TUESDAY: "We already need the Heat," BetMGM Nevada's Stoneback said. "There's a little sharp money on the 'dog, but the public is all over the Lakers." There's been little interest in the total so far, though it ticked from 218 to 217.5.


---


The Lakers were taking 64 percent of tickets and 72 percent of money on the spread Monday at DraftKings. And early bettors liked the Over, too, to the tune of 80 percent of tickets and 94 percent of dollars.

 

[CNOTES]

701MIAMI -702 LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS are 16-5 ATS (10.5 Units) in road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games in the current season.








NBA
Dunkel


Wednesday, September 30

Miami @ LA Lakers


Game 701-702
September 30, 2020 @ 9:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Miami
121.317
LA Lakers
130.066
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 9
224
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 5
217 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(-5); Over








NBA
Long Sheet


Wednesday, September 30


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MIAMI (56 - 32) vs. LA LAKERS (64 - 22) - 9/30/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 20-37 ATS (-20.7 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 142-107 ATS (+24.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
MIAMI is 47-39 ATS (+4.1 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 29-20 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LA LAKERS are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 3-3 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 5-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------







NBA


Wednesday, September 30


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Miami @ LA Lakers
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Miami's last 10 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Lakers's last 10 games when playing at home against Miami

 

[CNOTES]

Game 1 Odds: Heat vs. Lakers
Michael Crosson


It has been a little over 11 months since the winner of last year’s Finals, the Toronto Raptors, received their championship rings on the opening night of the 2019-20 NBA season, but the wait is finally over.


Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat will square off with LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers for one last series to crown the kings of the Disney World bubble in Orlando, Florida.


Betting Resources


Matchup: NBA Finals Game 1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ABC


The Lakers will meet the Heat in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday from the NBA Bubble in Orlando, Florida. (AP)


NBA Finals Schedule


All games to be played on one day of rest


Game 1 - Wednesday, Sept. 30
Game 2 - Friday, Oct. 2
Game 3 - Sunday, Oct. 4
Game 4 - Tuesday, Oct. 6
Game 5 - Friday, Oct. 9
Game 6 - Sunday, Oct. 11
Game 7 - Tuesday, Oct. 13


Line Movements


The Heat continue to be doubted by the oddsmakers out in Las Vegas, now listing Miami as an ‘underdog’ in its third straight post-season series and a four and a half-point ‘dog for its Game 1 contest with the Lakers.


Without Steph Curry and the Warriors in the NBA Finals for the first time in five years, expect the landscape of the series to look much different as we will see two teams with defensive-minded coaches that play with a lot of energy go up against each other on basketball’s biggest stage.


The ‘over-under’ for this contest sits at 217.5 though, which is still a higher opening total than last year’s Toronto-Golden State Game 1 contest (OU 215).


Spread: Los Angeles -4.5
Money-Line: Los Angeles -185 Miami +165
Total: 217.5
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -350, Miami +290


Heat vs. Lakers Head-to-Head


Last Four Meetings (2018-2019)


Dec. 13, 2019: Los Angeles 113 at Miami 100, Lakers -5.5, Over 212
Nov. 8, 2019: Los Angeles 95 vs. Miami 80, Lakers -8.5, Under 218.5
Dec. 10, 2018: Los Angeles 108 vs. Miami 105, Lakers -5.5, Under 222
Nov. 18, 2018: Los Angeles 113 at Miami 97, Lakers -1, Under 224.5


The Lakers have won both matchups so far with the Heat this year in two very different fashions, but do not get it confused, it was all about Anthony Davis in both games. The first time these teams met up his defense was on display, as the Brow rejected three shots and scored a team-high 26 points during the Lakers’ 95-80 victory.

Aside from Butler’s 22 points on 44% shooting in the Heat’s first game with LAL this season, it was a miserable offensive performance from Erik Spoelstra’s team across the board as his team finished the contest shooting 35% from the field and 17% from deep in the loss.


The second meeting between Miami and Los Angeles was much higher scoring and closely contested, but the spotlight shone bright on Davis yet again by leading the Lakers in scoring for his second consecutive contest against the Heat (33 points, 10 reb, 4-9 3FG).


The Lakers won the contest so it got overshadowed, but the LAL defensive struggles at the guard position were on full display in their second contest with Miami this year, as Kendrick Nunn and Butler combined for 39 points and 6 steals in the contest. It simply was not enough though, as the Lakers escaped with the 113-110 victory.


Including the aforementioned results from this season, make a note that since LeBron joined the Lakers in 2018, Los Angeles has gone 4-0 straight up and 2-2 against the spread in four regular season meetings against his former team.


Miami Betting Outlook


Inside the Stats


Bubble: 15-8 SU, 15-8 ATS, 12-10-1 O/U
Playoffs: 12-3 SU, 12-3 ATS, 8-7 O/U


At the start of the playoffs, it appeared to be a rocky path ahead, but the Heat have cruised right through the Eastern Conference by knocking off Indiana, Milwaukee, and Boston in just a combined 15 games.


The Lakers were built to beat teams like the Clippers and Rockets, but the Heat actually pose as an interesting matchup for LAL. Mainly because Bam Adebayo is capable of guarding Davis, but also because Miami has multiple, aggressive catch-and-shoot snipers in Herro, Robinson, and Dragic that the Lakers are notorious for having trouble defending outside.


I am not personally putting a dime on the Heat in this series, but Miami still sits as a +375 ‘underdog’ to win this year’s NBA Finals. So, if you are begging for reasons to bet against LeBron, now might be your best chance.


Los Angeles Betting Outlook


Inside the Stats


Bubble: 15-8 SU, 10-12-1 ATS, 11-12 O/U
Playoffs: 12-3 SU, 9-5-1 ATS, 7-8 O/U


People were worried about the Lakers following their Game 1 blunder to Damian Lillard and the Blazers in the first round...


People were worried about the Lakers following their Game 1 loss to James Harden and the Rockets in the conference semifinals...


People were worried when the Nuggets knocked off the Clippers in seven and if the Lakers could handle the one-two punch of Jokic and Murray...


Now, people are worried about this magical Heat unit that has made the Eastern Conference look like a cakewalk...


Should bettors backing L.A. be worried? No!


There is no need to worry about the Lakers whatsoever heading into this series. Los Angeles’ stars have had their heads on straight and eyes on the prize all the way inside the bubble, as LeBron and AD combined for 50+ points in all five contests against the Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals.


The Lakers have completed gentlemen’s sweeps in all three of their playoff series so far, have no injuries, and come into this series piping hot. The betting outlook appears bright in LA to say the least.


Key Injuries


Miami


PG Gabe Vincent: Knee - Game Time Decision
PF Chris Silva: Pelvis - Game Time Decision


Los Angeles


SG Dion Waiters: Groin - Game Time Decision


Good to see King James left off the injury report heading into the NBA Finals. His name was added to the report due to a nagging groin injury during the heart of the Lakers’ series with the Nuggets, but obviously was just for precautionary reasons as LeBron appears to be healthier than ever heading into his 10th NBA Finals.

 

[CNOTES]

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


MIA at LAL 09:00 PM


MIA +5.0


U 217.5

 

[CNOTES]

NBA FINALS RECORD:


ATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


09/30/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack


Odds to win the college hoop national title next April:
10-1— Gonzaga
12-1— Baylor
14-1— Villanova
16-1— Kentucky
18-1— Virginia
20-1— Duke, Texas Tech


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 206,005
Please wear a mask when you go out.




**********


Armadillo: Friday's Den: Wrapping up a busy Thursday


13) From James Logan: This week’s NFL games come with an average over/under of 49.9 points; since 2006, that would be the highest average over/under for any NFL weekend.
48.7- Week 11, 2018
48.2- Week 3, 2020
48.0- Week 10, 2018
47.8- Week 8, 2018
47.7- Week 9, 2018
47.3- Week 5, 2018
47.3- Week 7, 2018
47.1- Week 13, 2018
46.9- Week 11, 2014
46.8- Week 2, 2019


Ironic thing is that in those ten weeks, under wound up going 85-59-1 (59%)


12) Penalties per game are down about 1.5 flags per game over the previous four years; holding calls are down roughly 40%. Another reason for more scoring, higher totals.


11) Reader named Greg sent me this stat Thursday morning: over last 33 NFL games, if you bet first half totals, over is now 26-7, 16-1 in the last 17 games played.


Good weather is part of it, but is it easier to run an offense with no crowd noise? Fair question.


10) A’s 6, White Sox 4 (Oakland wins series 2-1)
— 17 pitchers were used in this game; none of them got more than six outs.
— Chicago led 3-0 after third inning.
— A’s win their first playoff series since 2006.
— For season, White Sox wound up 15-0 vs lefty starters, 23-27 vs righties.
— Tim Anderson had nine hits in three games for Chicago.


9) Braves 5, Reds 0 (Atlanta wins series 2-0):
— Cincinnati scored zero runs in 22 innings in this series. Zero. None. Bupkis.
— Rookie Anderson threw six shutout innings for Atlanta.
— Ozuna, Duvall both homered in a 4-run 8th inning.


8) Padres 11, Cardinals 9 (series 1-1):
— St Louis led 4-2 after five innings, before the Padres’ bats exploded.
— Fernando Tatis homered twice, knocked in five runs.
— 17 pitchers were used in this game, too.


7) Dodgers 3, Brewers 0 (LA wins series 2-0)
— Kershaw threw eight shutout innings, struck out 13.
— Milwaukee had a guy picked off first when they were down 3-0 in 8th inning; no bueno.
— At no point this season were the Brewers ever over .500.


6) Sunday’s Steeler-Titans game was postponed until later this season, after more Tennessee players tested positive for COVID.


5) Marlins’ OF Starling Marte broke his pinkie Wednesday; he can still pinch-run or play the field, but he can’t swing a bat for a while.


4) Philadelphia 76ers acted quickly, named Doc Rivers their new head coach.


3) Week or so ago, New York catcher Gary Sanchez was called for catcher’s interference three times in a 5-game stretch; he is the first major league catcher to do that since Vic Roznovsky of the Cubs, on September 28-29, 1965.


2) Philadelphia Eagles have been outscored 49-16 in second half of games this year.


1) Denver 37, NJ Jets 28:
— McManus drilled a 52-yard FG with 3:08 left for the win.
— Rookie QB Rypien was 19-31/242 in his first NFL start, but he did throw three INT’s.
— AFC West teams are 7-3-1 ATS outside their division.


— Jets had six personal fouls in this game, four in the first half.
— Jets lost their first four games, allowing 32.5 ppg.
— Jets are 6-11-1 ATS in their last 18 home games.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA public betting, line movement for October 2
Patrick Everson


LeBron James and Co. breezed to a 116-98 victory laying 4.5 points in Game 1. FanDuel Sportsbook opened them at -7 for Game 2, which rose quickly to -9.5 amid Miami injury concerns.


NBA betting odds are on the board for Game 2 of the NBA Finals, set for Friday night. The Los Angeles Lakers look to pick up where they left off in Wednesday’s Game 1, aiming to take firm control of this championship series against the Miami Heat.


FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on NBA Finals opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday’s matchup, along with odds to win the NBA championship.


NBA line movement


Miami entered Game 1 with a 12-3 SU and ATS record in this year’s playoffs, then sprinted out to an early double-digit lead in the opener against Los Angeles. But it was all Lakers the rest of the way, as LeBron James and Co. breezed to a 116-98 victory laying 4.5 points.


That led FanDuel to install Los Angeles as 7-point favorites for Game 2, and the line was already up to Lakers -9.5 by Thursday afternoon. Part of that is surely bettors’ reaction to Game 1, but the Heat are also banged up: Goran Dragic (foot) is doubtful for Game 2, while Jimmy Butler (ankle) and Bam Adebayo (shoulder) are questionable.


The total opened at 216 and moved to 216.5 Thursday afternoon.


NBA public betting


Bettors were buying the Lakers early and often at FanDuel, with 84 percent of tickets and 95 percent of dollars wagered landing on Los Angeles, through Thursday afternoon. On the total, ticket count is two-way, with the Over at 54 percent, but money is running 81 percent on the Over.

 

[CNOTES]

703MIAMI -704 LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS are 42-25 ATS (14.5 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game in the last 3 seasons.








NBA
Dunkel


Friday, October 2

Miami @ LA Lakers


Game 703-704
October 2, 2020 @ 9:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Miami
124.750
LA Lakers
126.632
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 2
213
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 7 1/2
216
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+7 1/2); Under








NBA
Long Sheet


Friday, October 2


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MIAMI (56 - 33) vs. LA LAKERS (65 - 22) - 10/2/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
LA LAKERS are 40-32 ATS (+4.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MIAMI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 4-3 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 6-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------







NBA


Friday, October 2


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Miami @ LA Lakers
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami's last 11 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing LA Lakers
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Lakers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami

 

[CNOTES]

Game 2 Odds: Heat vs. Lakers
Michael Crosson


Now just three wins away from securing his first ever championship ring, Anthony Davis and the Los Angeles Lakers will square off for Game 2 of the NBA Finals against Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat at the HP Field House in Disney’s Wide World of Sports complex in Orlando.


Betting Resources


Matchup: NBA Finals Game 2
Series: Lakers lead 1-0
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Friday, Oct. 2, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ABC


The Lakers blasted the Heat 116-98 in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, dominating the game in wire-to-wire fashion. (AP)


Line Movements


Following their 116-98 rout of Eric Spoelstra’s team in Game 1, the Lakers are getting a slight bump on the spread heading into the second contest of this series – setting the line for Friday night’s tilt at Los Angeles -7.5.


‘Under’ bettors were the victors in the first game of these NBA Finals as Miami and Los Angeles combined for just 214 points on Wednesday night. The ‘over-under’ for Game 2 sits in the same ballpark as Game 1’s final total – OU 216.


Spread: Los Angeles -8
Money-Line: Los Angeles -360 Miami +285
Total: 216
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -1200, Miami +750


Game 1 Recap


The Heat jumped out to an early lead in the opening stanza of Wednesday night’s contest, but that was short lived as the Lakers were able to secure a 31-28 lead before the final horn of the period, and never looked back.


The first game of these Finals was pretty much over at halftime, as the Lakers set a franchise record for most 3-point field goals made in the first half of a post-season contest by drilling 11 longballs in the opening two stanzas of Wednesday’s matchup, and gained a 65-48 lead at the break.

Miami started the game sitting back in a 2-3 zone similarly to how they prepared for Boston, daring Los Angeles to beat them from deep, but Frank Vogel’s team executed a drive-and-kick game plan flawlessly in Game 1 as his team scored a combined 70 points on Wednesday night from strictly 3-point land and the foul line.


Bam Adebayo was expected to give Davis some trouble down low on the defensive side of the ball, but that was far from the case in Game 1, as Bam exited the game with a neck injury, leaving Davis to dominate the contest with 34 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 blocks over 38 minutes in the Lakers’ win.


Game 1 Betting Results


Outcome: Lakers 116 Heat 98


After watching the Heat jump out to a 28-18 first quarter lead on the Lakers with three minutes remaining, Los Angeles closed on a 13-0 run and that effort not only helped the "Purple and Gold" carry the momentum into the final three quarters.


The Lakers covered for bettors in the first quarter, first-half and the game, plus they picked up a second-half ticket as a short 'dog too. The Heat's inabilty to score in the second and third quarters (39 combined points) hurt bettors who took the 'over' in the first-half and the second-half too.


Game: Lakers Win, Lakers Cover (-4.5), Under 217.5
First Quarter: Lakers Win (31-28), Lakers Cover (-2), Over 56
First-Half: Lakers Win (63-48), Lakers Cover (-3), Under 111.5
Second-Half: Lakers Win (51-50), Lakers Cover (+2.5), Under 105.5


Miami Betting Outlook


Inside the Stats


Bubble: 15-9 SU, 15-9 ATS, 12-11-1 O/U
Playoffs: 12-4 SU, 12-4 ATS, 8-8 O/U


Miami got blown out in the first game of this series, but if you have paid attention to the Heat this season, then you know this is one of the most resilient bunches in the NBA and they are going to come back re-energized, with a brand new scheme to attack the Lakers with on Friday night.


The Heat will likely be without Adebayo in this game, so even if the zone concept worked in Game 1, they would likely have to switch up their defensive strategy after losing the heartbeat of their defense.


Although his team did not show up, Jimmy Buckets was still great for the Heat on Wednesday night – Butler going for 23 points and 5 assists on 61% shooting for the game. He may need to take matters into his own hands in Game 2 considering the names listed on Friday’s injury report if Miami wants a chance at evening up this series.


Los Angeles Betting Outlook


Inside the Stats


Bubble: 16-8 SU, 11-12-1 ATS, 11-13 O/U
Playoffs: 13-3 SU, 10-5-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U


Following Los Angeles’ blowout victory in Game 1 of these NBA Finals, the oddsmakers have shifted the Lakers from -380 favorites, to -1200 favorites heading into the second game of this series.


The Lakers are typically streaky from deep and they still were in this contest, but it was plenty to knock off the Heat in this game once they became ravaged by injury in the early goings of this one.


LeBron James nearly recorded another triple-double to open this year’s Finals by tallying 25 points, 13 rebounds, and 9 assists across 36 minutes in Game 1.


Los Angeles is now 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games and will look to keep that pace going with another win on Friday night.


Key Injuries


Miami


PG Goran Dragic: Foot - Doubtful
PF Bam Adebayo: Shoulder - Doubtful
PF Jimmy Butler: Ankle - Probable


Los Angeles


None


Along with Adebayo’s potential absence, Goran Dragic is listed as a game time decision as well with torn plantar fascia in his last foot. The diagnosis does not necessarily rule him 'out' for Game 2, but the injury commonly gives players discomfort on the court and is something to take note of if the guard suits up on Friday night.

 

[CNOTES]

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 2


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


MIA at LAL 09:00 PM

LAL -10.0


U 216.5

 

[CNOTES]

NBA FINALS RECORD:


ATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


10/02/2020 0-1-1 25.00% -550 Detail


09/30/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail


Totals...............1-2-1........33.33%.....-6.00

 

[CNOTES]

Courtesy is the one coin you can never have too much of or be stingy with.






Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack


NFL leaders in passing yardage:
1,188— Dak Prescott, Dal
1,038— Josh Allen, Buff
961— Matt Ryan, Atl
925— Russell Wilson, Sea
898— Patrick Mahomes, KC
887— Aaron Rodgers, GB


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 208,025
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.




**********


Armadillo: Sunday's Den: Wrapping up a college football Saturday


13) New England QB Cam Newton tested positive for COVID; Sunday’s game with the Chiefs has been postponed, without a new date being set. One of the Chiefs’ backup QB’s has apparently also tested positive.


12) There is talk that the NFL may push back the start of their playoffs by a week, eliminate the extra week between conference title games and the Super Bowl to create a Week 18 in the regular season which would become a parking lot for some of these postponed games.


11) Iowa State 37, Oklahoma 30:
— Sooners lose consecutive regular season games for first time since 1999.
— Oklahoma scored 65 points in its two D-I games, but allowed 38-37 points.
— Cyclones lost at home to Louisiana, then beat TCU/Oklahoma. Go figure.


10) Arkansas 21, Mississippi State 14:
— MSU QB Costello threw for 623 yards last week; he threw three INT’s here, including a pick-6, as Arkansas ended their 20-game SEC losing streak.


9) Ole Miss 42, Kentucky 41 (OT)
— Very fun game to watch; Kentucky’s kicker missed a PAT in overtime.
— Ole Miss QB Corral threw for 320 yards, ran for 51 more.
— Kentucky led this game 28-14 with 10:00 left in third quarter.


8) Tennessee 35, Missouri 12:
— Volunteers have now won eight games in a row, dating back to last year.


7) Upsets of the Day:
— Tulsa (+20.5) 34, Central Florida 26
— Arkansas (+17) 21, Mississippi State 14
— NC State (+14) 30, Pittsburgh 29
— TCU (+10.5) 33, Texas 31
— Iowa State (+7.5) 37, Oklahoma 30
— Air Force (+7) 40, Navy 7
— Ole Miss (+7) 42, Kentucky 41


6) TCU 33, Texas 31:
— Longhorns fumbled on the TCU 1-yard line with 2:44 left.
— Total yardage was 457-388, TCU
— Penalties: TCU 14-109, Texas 12-92


5) West Virginia 27, Baylor 21 OT:
— WVU survived four turnovers (-2), held Baylor 256 total yards.
— Bears lost their fifth straight visit to Morgantown.


4) Virginia Tech 38, Duke 31:
— Tech ran ball for 324 yards, keeping their depleted defense off the field.
— Hokies were missing their top 8 DB’s, their defensive coordinator, their DB’s coach and 13 other players.


3) NC State 30, Pittsburgh 29:
— Teams combined for 747 passing yards, no turnovers.
— Wolfpack scored the winning TD with 0:23 left.


2) SMU 30, Memphis 27:
— Both teams gained over 500 yards, converted over half their 3rd downs.
— Mustangs threw TD passes of 70-85 yards.
— AAC football is underrated; lot of fun teams to watch.


1) American League playoffs start Monday, in LA/San Diego. National League series start /Tuesday, in Arlington/Houston.