Cnotes 2019 nfl preseason - news - notes - picks !

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Tip Sheet
August 23, 2019
By Kevin Rogers


Note: Quarterback rotation subject to change. Lines courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.


Bears at Colts (-3, 37 ½) - 7:00 PM EST


Chicago
Head Coach: Matt Nagy (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Mitchell Trubisky, Chase Daniel, Tyler Bray
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Brad Biggs


Chicago's offense hasn't accomplished much in the preseason by scoring 13 points each in a pair of losses to the Panthers and Giants. In last week's setback at New York, the Bears were held to only 165 yards as Mitchell Trubisky sat out. In spite of Chicago's offensive woes through two exhibition games, the OVER has hit in both contests, while the OVER is currently on a six-game run in the Bears' last six preseason contests. The Bears have won each of their last two preseason games in Week 3, including a 27-20 victory over the Bears as six-point home underdogs.


Indianapolis
Head Coach: Frank Reich (3-3 SU, 3-2-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Jacoby Brissett, Phillip Walker, Chad Kelly
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Stephen Holder


The Colts never led in a 21-18 home setback to the Browns last week as three-point favorites to fall to 0-2 in the preseason. Andrew Luck remains sidelined for the Colts with an ankle injury, but all three Indianapolis quarterbacks threw for at least 100 yards each, led by Chad Kelly's 115 yards. The Colts covered in all four preseason games in 2018 before failing to cash the first two weeks in 2019, as Indianapolis beat San Francisco in Week 3 last preseason in a pick-em spot.




Texans at Cowboys (PK, 40) - 7:00 PM EST


Houston
Head Coach: Bill O'Brien (13-8 SU, 12-8-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Deshaun Watson, AJ McCarron, Joe Webb
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Aaron Wilson


The Texans bounced back from a two-point loss at Green Bay to hold off Detroit last week, 30-23 to cash as three-point favorites. Deshaun Watson led the Texans to a touchdown in his only drive of the night by hooking up with DeAndre Hopkins on a four-yard scoring strike. Houston has easily hit the OVER in both preseason games after drilling the UNDER in three of four exhibition contests last season. The Texans have lost their last two Week 3 preseason contests, including a 21-20 road defeat to the Rams in 2018.


Dallas
Head Coach: Jason Garrett (13-22 SU, 11-21-3 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Dak Prescott, Cooper Rush, Mike White
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: David Helman


In a battle of teams that have proven they care little about the preseason, the Cowboys edged the Rams in Hawaii last Saturday, 14-10. Dallas not only covered as a 3 ½-point favorite, but the Cowboys snapped a five-game preseason skid to grab their first exhibition win since 2017. Ezekiel Elliott remains out for the Cowboys due to his contract dispute, while Dak Prescott completed all five passes for 64 yards in his limited action. Dallas lost at Houston in its previous exhibition matchup in Week 4 of 2018 by a 14-6 count as 4 ½-point underdogs.




Saints (-3, 42 ½) at Jets - 7:30 PM EST


New Orleans
Head Coach: Sean Payton (25-26 SU, 26-24-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater, Taysom Hill, J.T. Barrett
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Mike Triplett


Following a 34-25 defeat to Minnesota to kick off the preseason, the Saints rebounded for a 19-17 triumph over the Chargers last week in Los Angeles. New Orleans rallied from a 17-3 deficit to outscore Los Angeles, 16-0 in the second half, highlighted by a pair of touchdown passes by Taysom Hill. The former BYU standout threw for 136 yards and rushed for an additional 53 yards, while Teddy Bridgewater was less than impressive by throwing for 40 yards and getting intercepting once. Drew Brees will see his first action of the preseason against New York as the Saints seek their fifth consecutive preseason road win dating back to 2017.


N.Y. Jets
Head Coach: Adam Gase (6-8 SU, 6-8 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Sam Darnold, Trevor Siemian, Davis Webb, Luke Falk
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Manish Mehta


The Jets also needed a rally in their last preseason contest as they scored the final 16 points of a 22-10 road victory over the Falcons. Luke Falk put the Jets ahead early in the fourth quarter with a touchdown pass to Deontay Burnett, while James Burgess returned a late interception for a touchdown to seal it. The Jets have lost three consecutive Week 3 preseason games by a total of eight points since 2016.




49ers at Chiefs (-3 ½, 45) - 8:00 PM EST


San Francisco
Head Coach: Kyle Shanahan (5-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Mullens, C.J. Beathard, Wilton Speight
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Cam Inman


Jimmy Garoppolo returns to the scene of the crime at Arrowhead Stadium as the 49ers' quarterback sustained a season-ending torn ACL last September. Garoppolo didn't play in the preseason opening win over the Cowboys, but suited up for the first time since that ACL injury in last Monday's 24-15 victory at Denver. The former Patriots' quarterback wasn't sharp in his return to the field by completing 1-of-6 passes, while getting intercepted once. The win over the Broncos snapped a three-game road preseason skid, as the Niners make their first exhibition trip to Kansas City since a 27-17 triumph in the 2017 opener.


Kansas City
Head Coach: Andy Reid (39-43 SU, 37-41-4 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne, Chase Litton, Kyle Shurmur
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Brooke Pryor


The Chiefs dominated the Bengals in the preseason opener at home, 38-17, but didn't produce much offense in last week's 17-7 defeat at Pittsburgh as three-point favorites. Patrick Mahomes didn't last long as threw for 15 yards on 2-of-5 attempts, while Chad Henne led the Chiefs to their only touchdown of the game late in the second quarter. As obscure as it may seem, the Chiefs have won five consecutive home preseason games that don't take place in Week 1, while losing their last two Week 3 preseason contests, both on the road.




Broncos at Rams (-1 ½, 35) - 8:00 PM EST


Denver
Head Coach: Vic Fangio (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Joe Flacco, Kevin Hogan, Brett Rypien
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Ryan O'Halloran


The Broncos rallied past the Falcons in the Hall of Fame game, 14-10, but Denver hasn't won since after losing to Seattle and San Francisco the last two weeks. Denver kicked three field goals early but didn't reach the end zone against San Francisco until 2:15 remaining in regulation in a 24-15 defeat. The Broncos racked up only 215 yards of offense, while second round pick Drew Lock exited the game with a thumb injury. All three preseason games for the Broncos have finished UNDER the total, which is in stark contrast to the 3-1 OVER mark in the 2018 exhibition campaign.


Los Angeles
Head Coach: Sean McVay (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Blake Bortles, Brandon Allen, John Wolford
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Gary Klein


The Rams have gutted out 13 points in two preseason losses to the Raiders and Cowboys, while Jared Goff and Todd Gurley haven't sniffed the field and won't until the regular season. The only positive to come out of the preseason is Los Angeles has allowed 14 points in each defeat, as the Rams yielded 20 or more points in three of four exhibition contests in 2018. This marks only the second time in Sean McVay's tenure as head coach of the Rams that Los Angeles is an exhibition favorite, as they failed to cover as 2 ½-point chalk in a 21-19 setback to the Chargers in Week 3 of the 2017 preseason.




Seahawks at Chargers (-3, 40 ½) - 10:00 PM EST


Seattle
Head Coach: Pete Carroll (33-22 SU, 36-18-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Russell Wilson, Paxton Lynch, Geno Smith
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Bob Condotta


The Seahawks took care of the Broncos in their preseason opener, 22-14 as two-point home underdogs to snap a four-game preseason skid. Seattle fell at Minnesota last week, 25-19 as three-point underdogs, while not scoring an offensive touchdown. The Seahawks returned an interception for a score, while the rest of their points came on four field goals. Russell Wilson threw for 82 yards in his first preseason action, while the Seahawks mustered 221 yards of offense. Seattle lost at Los Angeles last preseason, 24-14 as three-point underdogs, marking the Seahawks' lowest point total in an exhibition contest since an 18-11 loss to the Vikings in 2016.


Los Angeles
Head Coach: Anthony Lynn (4-8 SU, 4-7-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Philip Rivers, Tyrod Taylor, Cardale Jones, Easton Stick
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Jeff Miller


The Chargers have dropped a pair of low-scoring preseason contests to the Cardinals and Saints by a combined six points. Los Angeles blew a 14-point lead in last week's 19-17 home defeat to New Orleans, as the Chargers' offense reached the end zone only once. Philip Rivers has yet to suit up in the preseason, as the veteran quarterback last played in an exhibition contest in a 36-7 drubbing to the Saints in Week 3 of 2018. Since starting the 2015 preseason at 2-0, the Chargers have slipped to a 4-12 mark in their past 16 exhibition games, while covering only six times in this stretch.

 

[CNOTES]

Bills top Lions, key players injured
August 23, 2019
By The Associated Press


DETROIT (AP) Matthew Stafford threw a go-ahead touchdown in his first preseason game of the year and the Buffalo Bills came back to beat the Detroit Lions 24-20 Friday night in a preseason game that became significant because key players on both teams were hurt.


Detroit linebacker Jarrad Davis was carted off the field early in the first quarter with an injured right leg and center Frank Ragnow had to be helped off the field after appearing to hurt his right knee.


Bills guard Quinton Spain limped off the field with an ankle injury in the first quarter and cornerback Tre'Davious White left the game with a bruised quadriceps in the second quarter.


Stafford, meanwhile, got on and off the field unscathed.


He was 12 of 19 for 137 yards with an 11-yard touchdown pass to Ty Johnson, perfectly connecting with the rookie running back in the flat while linebacker Matt Milano was covering him closely, to give Detroit a 14-10 lead early in the second quarter.


Lions kicker Matt Prater made a 61-yard field goal as the second quarter ended to narrow the Bills' lead to 14-13 at the half.


Buffalo's Josh Allen was 3 of 6 for 49 yards in the first half, playing against starters. Against reserves, Matt Barkley completed 12 of 14 passes for 142 yards and a 16-yard touchdown pass to Duke Williams late in the third quarter to give Buffalo an 11-point lead.


BUCCANEERS 13, BROWNS 12


TAMPA, Fla. (AP) - Matt Gay kicked a 21-yard field goal with 15 seconds remaining, giving Tampa Bay a preseason victory over Cleveland.


The rookie's game-winner capped a 16-play drive lasting more than seven minutes. Cairo Santos booted a 23-yard field goal in the third quarter and third-string quarter Ryan Griffin threw a 20-yard touchdown pass to Jordan Leggett for the Bucs (2-1).


Rookie Austin Seibert kicked four field goals for the Browns (2-1), who led 9-0 when Baker Mayfield and the rest of Cleveland's starters left the game.


Mayfield, the No. 1 overall pick from the 2018 draft, started and played the entire first half.


Playing without starting receivers Odell Beckham Jr. (hip) and Jarvis Landry, the second-year quarterback led three short field-goal drives and was not particularly sharp while completing 10 of 26 passes for 72 yards and one interception.


Tampa Bay's Jameis Winston had an even tougher night, though it wasn't all his doing.


Gay missed a 37-yard field goal and Tampa Bay's leaky offensive line had difficulty protecting Winston, allowing five sacks while the fifth-year pro was in the game.


The No. 1 overall pick from the 2015 draft, who's closing in on becoming the franchise's career passing leader yet still trying to prove he's the club's long-term answer at quarterback, finished 9 of 19 for 88 yards without an interception.

 

[CNOTES]

Column: The NFL preseason shows all its ills in 1 night
August 23, 2019
By The Associated Press


Cam Newton hobbling to the locker room, the recipient of an unnecessary injury in an unnecessary game.


A cash-grab in Canada, leading to what didn't even qualify as a glorified scrimmage on an 80-yard field.


The Falcons charging top dollar to cheer for a quarterback last seen trying to make the Patriots as a receiver.


Stop the madness.


The NFL preseason needs to go.


If there was any way to cancel the final week of friendlies, that would be just fine with us. Since such an option isn't really feasible, let's make it the swan song for what has become the height of the league's arrogance: a monthlong slog of meaningless exhibitions that serve no discernible purpose other than ill-gotten gain for billionaire owners.


At least they had the right idea in Philadelphia, where a preseason game between the Eagles and the Baltimore Ravens was halted with nearly 12 minutes remaining. Allegedly, there was lightning in the area. Maybe someone just forgot to turn off the flash on their cellphone. Whatever the case, no one really complained.


ICYMI - and we hope you did - the penultimate round of exhibition games began Thursday night with needless pain and drama for one of the league's most prominent players, a debacle north of the border that was right out of the playbook of a fledgling startup like the short-lived Alliance of American Football, and more than enough ''who the heck is that?'' moments to persuade even the most die-hard of preseason supporters (seriously, does such a person even exist?) there must be a better way to get ready for the actual season.


- Let's start in Foxborough, where Newton dropped back to pass for the Carolina Panthers, got tripped up by a New England rusher and tumbled to the turf with a sprained left foot. The 2015 NFL MVP already was coming off an injury plagued season. Now, this. Newton left the stadium in a walking boot and didn't speak with reporters, though general manager Marty Hurney is ''cautiously optimistic'' he'll be ready for the Sept. 8 regular-season opener against the Los Angeles Rams.


- Moving on to Winnipeg, where football is normally played on 110-yard fields and features the rouge, they came up with a set of rules that aren't used on either side of the border for the Caesars Palace Raiders vs. the Green Bay Packers Junior Varsity. You see, they had to take up the goalposts used for Canadian Football League games, since those would've been in the middle of the end zones on an NFL field. Trouble is, they apparently covered those spots with some shag carpet left over from a 1970s bedroom. Both teams expressed concerns about the safety of the turf, so the field was hastily shortened to 80 yards and there were no kickoffs.


In keeping with the amateurish feel of the game, the Packers decided to sit 33 players, including star quarterback Aaron Rodgers and running back Aaron Jones. (Rodgers, it should be noted, hasn't played at all during the preseason, so he's got the right idea.) The Raiders countered with a B-team of their own, sending out a lineup that didn't include quarterback Derek Carr or receiver Antonio Brown (we won't even get into that).


- Finally, we take you to ... well, pretty much any stadium that was hosting a preseason game. If you like paying NFL prices to watch guys who'll soon be trying out for the XFL, you've come to the right place. But for the sake of clarity, we'll go with our personal favorite: Atlanta Falcons ''quarterback'' Danny Etling. A couple of weeks ago, the former college QB was trying to make it in New England as a receiver. He wound up being claimed off waivers by the Falcons, who are giving him a shot at his former position after injuries derailed their plans to develop a third quarterback.


With little knowledge of the playbook, Etling spent most of the night just running around in a 19-7 loss to Washington. Yes, those seven carries for 48 yards show he's got potential if the Falcons ever switch to the wishbone. But if they're looking for a legit NFL quarterback, even one who'll be nothing more than a scout teamer behind Matt Ryan and Matt Schaub, then completing 2 of 6 passes for 19 yards is not encouraging.


Then again, that's pretty much par for the course during the preseason.


Since most teams probably have no more than a half-dozen positions that are really up for grabs on the 53-man roster, it doesn't make much sense to play anyone of significance - and, if so, certainly not for an extended period of time. Why risk a season-ending injury to a player who's already locked up his spot?


Some teams have started holding joint practices with other teams, which seem much more productive in getting prepared for the season. And let's not forget: college teams don't play any preseason games, yet they get along just fine by practicing and scrimmaging among themselves leading up to the season.


NFL owners have pushed the idea of reducing the preseason from four to two games, while increasing the regular season from 16 to 18 games. The players, understandably, have been reluctant to add two more real games to a schedule that already is brutal on their bodies. But they might reconsider if preseason games are dropped altogether, especially if it comes with some sort of across-the-board increase in salaries.


No doubt, some difficult negotiations are on the horizon as the two sides try to bang out a new collective bargaining agreement.


But there is one thing we should all agree on after a night like Thursday.


The preseason needs to go.

 

[CNOTES]

My Picks....268 + Un / 269 Un / 274 Ov / 275 / 278 / 280 Un

 

[Udog]

SNF - Steelers at Titans
Matt Blunt

The final game of Week 3 of the preseason has the rare conference battle between the Steelers and Titans, as both organizations look to get back to the playoffs as they were at the end of the 2017 season. Thankfully the Steelers and Titans aren't scheduled to meet in the regular season this year so there doesn't have to be over-developed concerns about this game being completely vanilla, but will the teams show anything dramatic at all?

Pittsburgh's had a solid 2-0 SU preseason so far and the ability to a Chiefs team to just 7 points for an entire game is a nice notch in the belt to have, even if it is only the preseason. There is not a left for the Steelers to do this preseason except maybe get Big Ben some snaps – which should be in the plan this week. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement for backing Pittsburgh this week, but a team like the Steelers has got to be anxious for the games to start to count for real.

From Tennessee's perspective, they've still got QB Ryan Tannehill pushing his case to possibly be the starter for this team going forward, although Marcus Mariota will be under center in Week 1. His leash could be quite a bit shorter though should Tannehill continue to look impressive in the preseason, and given that this Steelers defense just contained the explosive Kansas City offense, for Tannehill (or any of the Titans QB's) to put up big numbers on Pittsburgh's defense here would be a nice notch in their belt going forward.

So with a combined 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS preseason record between the two teams, who ends up getting the cash this week?

NFL Odds: Tennessee (-2.5); Total set at 40

I'm not sure which side is going to get the money, but I believe you can only look to Tennessee in that scenario simply because of the situation. Pittsburgh's got nothing left to prove out there this August, are on the road for the first time this summer, and want nothing more then for Roethlisberger to get his reps and get out of town unscathed. That's not exactly the best game plan for going out and winning/covering a number out on the road, even if the Steelers are getting points.

Compared to Tennessee being a team that's more about the entire process under Mike Vrabel's leadership, and a team that's got a potential QB battle brewing under the surface, I can only look at backing the Titans in this spot, especially on any point spread below that -3 key number. Tennessee's did get a spike in early action pushing the opener of -1.5 up to -3, but it's stayed stagnant since, and it would be that Titans side that I'd only look to.

However, it's this total that presents a better betting opportunity to me, as this total of a flat 40 points seems about a FG or so too low given that this is still Week 3 of the preseason.

Although the often overlooked part of “dress rehearsal” week in the NFL preseason is the fact that the starting defenses get significant time out on the field as well – many hear that starting offenses are playing a half or so and automatically want to think 'overs' because of it – this total is still too low in my eyes.

Yes, both defenses are out there for longer (in terms of starters), but they are in self-preservation mode now too, not looking to launch their body around and blow themselves up before the games start to count. In fact, you could make the argument that this week we can get defense that resembles somewhere in between actual defense and Pro-Bowl type defense from starting units because they don't want to get hurt either. Starters don't need to fly around the field and make impressions with big hits in August, and even against vanilla-flavored gameplans, starting units can look bad. And for units that have very few starting position battles going on, there really isn't a whole lot of incentive to look “good” this week if it's going to potentially cost you a start or two in September.

At the same time, the Steelers/Chiefs and Titans/Patriots preseason games a week ago were two of the most heavily bet 'overs' from a market perspective we had all week. Only the Titans/Patriots game came close to cashing an 'over' ticket, and because of that there is always going to be some hesitation in the market going back to that well. Betting percentage numbers up at VegasInsider.com already show significant percentages of 75%+ on the 'unders' in this game and the Patriots game this week, as it appears some don't want to get burned again backing an 'over' in the preseason.

Yet, when the majority of the market is going one way and the number doesn't move, it's never a bad idea to start to search for supporting reasons to submit a play on the other side. For this game specifically, we've got it being in prime time, under the bright lights of SNF in a scheduling spot where an entertaining game would be welcomed.

Secondly, the starting units on both sides are going to want to be responsible for putting points up on the board when they can, and should be able to do so. Remember, there is so much talk about offenses being vanilla this time of year, but starting defenses are in the same boat, and with this game being their longest stint on the field, soft serve defense may be on the menu as well. Get the starters to give us something like a 14-10 game at half and we are well on our way to an 'over' cashing. Both teams have scored at least 17 points in both preseason tilts so far, and from there it's just one more TD needed to cash an 'over' ticket as well.

Finally, even with last week's home game against the Patriots going 'under', Tennessee is still on a 6-3 O/U run at home in the preseason the past couple of years, and have averaged 42.4 points per game in that span. Pittsburgh went 2-0 O/U on the road in the preseason last year as they really don't mind testing their mettle in back-and-forth affairs in hostile territory this time of year, and have a 6-3 O/U run going themselves during this week of the preseason with 42.7 points per game averaged in those contests as well.

With the SNF crew setting the stage for this game and the upcoming season, this Pittsburgh/Tennessee game should play up to the level of prime time football and put up plenty of points on the board relative to this total. Give me the high side of the total.

Best Bet: Over 40