Cnotes 2017 Stanley Cup Championship Trends-Stats-Picks-News !

[CNOTES]

NHL
Dunkel


Sunday, June 11



Pittsburgh @ Nashville


Game 11-12
June 11, 2017 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
11.535
Nashville
12.453
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Nashville
by 2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Nashville
-135
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Nashville
(-135); Over








NHL
Long Sheet


Sunday, June 11


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PITTSBURGH (65-28-0-13, 143 pts.) at NASHVILLE (55-35-0-13, 123 pts.) - 6/11/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 31-43 ATS (-23.2 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 5-12 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games after a non-conference game this season.
NASHVILLE is 23-9 ATS (+9.2 Units) in home games second half of the season this season.
NASHVILLE is 24-6 ATS (+15.0 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when trailing in a playoff series over the last 2 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 243-195 ATS (+467.5 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
NASHVILLE is 37-19 ATS (+12.2 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 35-22 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NASHVILLE is 27-15 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
PITTSBURGH is 129-83 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 86-51 ATS (+12.0 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 49-32 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 32-37 ATS (-17.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 7-4 (+2.5 Units) against the spread versus NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 7-4-0 straight up against NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.3 Units)

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NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Sunday, June 11


Home team won first five Finals games, and last eight Nashville-Pittsburgh tilts overall; Penguins are 11-4 in last 15 games with Nashville- six of last eight series games went over. Predators won four of last five home games; over is 4-2 in their last six games. Pittsburgh lost last three road games, outscored 11-3. Penguins lost last three visits to Music City, outscored 14-3. Over is 4-2 in their last six games. Penguins won Cup LY and in 2009; they’re 4-1 overall in Stanley Cup final series. Nashville is in its first Stanley Cup final. Predators are 4-14 on power play in series; Penguins are 2-22. Pittsburgh wins second Stanley Cup in a row if they win this game.


Stanley Cup final
Nashville-Pittsburgh
Pitt 5-3, -$160, O5.5
Pitt 4-1, -$140, U5.5
Nash 5-1, -$150, O5.5
Nash 4-1, -$135, U5.5
Pitt 6-0, -$165, O5.5








NHL


Sunday, June 11


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Trend Report
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8:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. NASHVILLE
Pittsburgh is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Nashville
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing Nashville
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Nashville's last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Nashville is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games

 

[CNOTES]

Stanley Cup contenders bounce back big time from shutout losses


Heading into Game 6 Sunday, there have been 12 NHL contenders coming off a shutout loss in the Stanley Cup final (that wasn’t a series-ending game) and all but two of those teams have rebounded to win the following game.


Nothing is more demoralizing to a team than failing to register a single goal, especially when that comes in a series as important as the Stanley Cup final.


The Nashville Predators are licking their wounds after taking a 6-0 beating from the hands of the Pittsburgh Penguins in Game 5 of the Cup final.


But if you’re backing the Preds or holding a tasty futures ticket on them to win the Cup, don’t put the catfish in the freezer just yet. On top of the series swinging back to “Smashville” for Game 6 and Nashville priced as a -140 home favorite, NHL contenders coming off a shutout loss in the Stanley Cup final have been betting gold the past 11 postseasons.


Heading into Game 6 Sunday, there have been 12 NHL contenders coming off a shutout loss in the Stanley Cup final (that wasn’t a series-ending game) and all but two of those teams have rebounded to win the following game.


This trend does offer great betting value on the team coming off a shutout loss, as NHL betting markets will make a knee-jerk reaction to that previous score. Bettors, impressed with the shutout win, will jump on the other side. We're seeing this type of pattern with Game 6, as Nashville opened -150 and has since been trimmed to -140 with money on the Penguins forcing a significant move of 10 cents as of Saturday afternoon.


The Predators had been shutout only four times prior to Game 5, going back to the regular season, and bounced back to win the following game in three of those situations. They've also won 20 of their last 28 games coming off an offensive output of two goals or less, including a 5-1 home win in Game 3 following a 4-1 loss at Pittsburgh in Game 2.


For those betting goal totals, those teams coming off the shutout losses scored an average of 2.83 goals the next game while allowing 1.91 goals against – a combined count of 4.74 goals. Sunday’s Game 6 betting total is set at 5.5 with three of the first five games playing Over the number.


Here’s a look at those shutouts and the following result (*team coming off shutout loss lost next game):


2014


Los Angeles 3, N.Y. Rangers 0 (Game 3)
N.Y Rangers 2, Los Angeles 1 (Game 4)


2013


Boston 2, Chicago 0 (game 3)
Chicago 6, Boston 5 (Game 4)


2012


Los Angeles 4, New Jersey 0 (Game 3)
New Jersey 3, Los Angeles 1 (Game 4)


2011


Vancouver 1, Boston 0 (Game 1)
Vancouver 3, Boston 2 (Game 2)*
Boston 4, Vancouver 0 (Game 4)
Vancouver 1, Boston 0 (Game 5)
Boston 5, Vancouver 2 (Game 6)


2009


Detroit 5, Pittsburgh 0 (Game 5)
Pittsburgh 2, Detroit 1 (Game 6)


2008


Detroit 4, Pittsburgh 0 (Game 1)
Detroit 3, Pittsburgh 0 (Game 2)*
Pittsburgh 3, Detroit 2 (Game 3)


2007


Anaheim 1, Ottawa 0 (Game 2)
Ottawa 5, Anaheim 3 (Game 3)


2006


Carolina 5, Edmonton 0 (Game 2)
Edmonton 2, Carolina (Game 3)
Edmonton 4, Carolina 0 (Game 6)
Carolina 3, Edmonton 1 (Game 7)

 

[CNOTES]

High-scoring hockey has been followed by Under results in Stanley Cup final


Going back to the 2011 Stanley Cup final, playing the Under following an Over result is a perfect 9-0 winner. Sunday's Game 6 total is 5.5 goals.


A wild and crazy Game 1 of the Stanley Cup final produced a total of eight goals – the highest scoring Stanley Cup final game since Game 2 of the 2014 final - and set the tone for what has been an action-packed final series so far.


Heading into the 2017 final there had been only 20 Stanley Cup final games that had topped the total since the 2005 NHL lockout. So far this year, there have been three: Game 1 (Pittsburgh 5, Nashville 3 - Over 5.5), Game 3 (Nashville 5, Pittsburgh 1 - Over 5.5), and Game 5 (Pittsburgh 6, Nashville 0 - Over 5.5).


That Game 1 final score of 5-3 set up an interesting angle for total bettors that has since cashed in twice during the 2017 Cup final. Since the lockout, Stanley Cup final games following an Over result are 4-14-1 Over/Under (78 percent Under), with three Over results coming in the deciding game of a series (no following game). Heading into this year's final, the average combined score in those contests following an Over was just 4.3 goals.


Nashville and Pittsburgh played Under in Game 2 (Pittsburgh 4, Nashville 1 - Under 5.5) and Game 4 (Nashville 4, Pittsburgh 1 - Under 5.5). This trend comes back into play Sunday for Game 6 in Nashville, after the Pens blanked the Predators 6-0 in Game 5 - topping the 5.5-goal total. The Game 6 number is 5.5 with the Under priced at -125.


In fact, going back to the 2011 Stanley Cup final, playing the Under following an Over has produced a perfect 9-0 streak. And, if you take the 2010 final out of the equation – which saw the Chicago Blackhawks and Philadelphia Flyers top the total in five of six games – you get a Over/Under record of 1-13-1 in Cup final games following an Over since 2006.


Before Game 1, the Penguins entered the Cup final with a 8-9-2 Over/Under record in the NHL playoffs while the Predators posted a 3-7-6 O/U mark in their first three postseason series.


The Predators are -140 moneyline favorites in Game 6 Sunday.

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, JUNE 11


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


PIT at NAS 08:00 PM


NAS -147


O 5.5

 

[CNOTES]

Penguins end Predators magical postseason run
June 11, 2017


NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) The Predators' amazing, improbable playoff run finally is over.


After capturing the hearts of Nashville's country music stars and tens of thousands more in and around Music City, Nashville's season ended at the hands of the Pittsburgh Penguins 2-0 in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final.


P.K. Subban, brought over from Montreal in last summer's blockbuster swap of All-Star defensemen, said the loss stings and will for a while. Then he made another bold promise, not all that different from his guarantee of a Game 3 that proved true.


''We're going to be back here again next year,'' Subban said. ''We've got a lot of guys who are coming into their own. ... I think we're going to take a lot of experience on this run and we'll be back again next year.''


Not many gave Nashville a chance. The Predators were the bottom seed in the West, seemingly unlikely to advance out of the first round much less be one of the last two teams standing. But Peter Laviolette's fast-skating bunch with the lockdown defense roared past Chicago in a sweep to get things started and shrugged off the home-ice advantage of St. Louis and Anaheim on the way to the first Final in the franchise's 19-year history - much to the joy of their catfish-tossing fans.


Injuries to forwards Kevin Fiala and Ryan Johansen opened the door for unsung playoff heroes like Colton Sissons and Frederick Gaudreau to not only get into the lineup but make significant contributions. Sissons recorded a hat trick in the clinching Game 6 of the Anaheim series. The undrafted Gaudreau scored Nashville's game-winning goals in Games 3 and 4 of the Final.


Sissons had several chances Sunday. He had an apparent goal waived off in the second due to a quick whistle and was later stopped on a breakaway. In the third, both he and Filip Forsberg had shots ring off the post.


Nashville also had a 32-second, 5-on-3 opportunity in the third but could not beat Murray, who did not allow a goal in the last 126:52.


''Things didn't go our way, but that happens,'' said team captain Mike Fisher. ''That's sport. Like I said, this team never gave up. We believed all the way. Just a great group of guys. Our goal coming into the playoffs was just to unite and inspire a city and obviously win a Cup. We didn't do that but I think we did the first one. That's a pretty cool feeling.''


Including Sunday night's loss, the Predators were 9-2 at Bridgestone Arena this postseason. After selling out each regular-season home game, Nashville's fans not only packed the arena in the postseason, they attempted to blow the roof off of the building with their constant full-throated yelling beginning even before the opening faceoff. The hockey world was abuzz with talk of who would be the next country music star to sing the anthem at home games. The likes of Carrie Underwood, Kelly Clarkson and Keith Urban among others did not disappoint.


Fans who could not get tickets packed the plaza outside Bridgestone and a nearby park to watch the games on outdoor televisions. In the Final, the city blocked off portions of Broadway, where estimated crowds of 50,000 gathered to watch the games.


Around town, many jumped on the Predators' bandwagon, driving television ratings for both home and away games to numbers never previously seen in Nashville. ''Go Preds'' was a common greeting or goodbye.


They should have plenty to cheer for next season, too.


Approaching the shortest offseason in team history, the 2017-18 version of the Predators should look very similar to the one that made this deep playoff run.


Two members of the team's top offensive line, Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson are restricted free agents, but the team has enough cap space remaining that signing them shouldn't be a problem. That duo, along with linemate Forsberg, are all in their early 20s.


On the blue line, Nashville's top four defensemen of Subban, Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis are all signed for at least the next two seasons. Just 28, Subban is the elder statesman of that group. Fisher is an unrestricted free agent, but he seems likely to stay in Nashville if he wants to.