NFL Week 6 Essentials
October 14, 2017
No time to waste, let's get right into thought process mode in handicapping Week 6's offerings:
Sunday, Oct. 15
Browns at Texans: It took four games for Hue Jackson to decide rookie QB DeShone Kizer needed to take a step back and watch someone else work. The expectation here is that he'll eventuallly get the job back from Kevin Hogan to help the Browns determine whether they need to draft another quarterback next April, but for now, the second-year ex-Stanford starter gets the ball. He gets his passes out quicker and moved Cleveland better than Kizer against the Jets, but the franchise's 28th starting QB since 1999 isn't the answer either.
His arm isn't strong and his delivery isn't fluid, but his brain should make him a more than serviceable backup for years to come. The Browns need more than that. The Texans need to prove they can beat teams being led by backup QBs in the wake of season-ending injuries to J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus. Although banged up, Jadeveon Clowney (knee), Benardick McKinney (hip) and Johnathan Joseph (groin) are all set to be a part of a revamped defense that needs to try and succeed going forward without a number of their most gifted assets.
Cleveland will try and slow down rookie QB Deshaun Watson, who has thrown 11 touchdown passes over his last three games while running for an additional one. The Texans have averaged over 41 points per game but are just 1-2 in that span, defeating Tennessee but losing to New England and Kansas City. The winless Browns have only topped 20 points once this season and have only once in their last 24 games. They've lost 15 straight road games, last winning over two years ago (Oct. 11, 2015) in Baltimore.
Patriots at Jets: I don't know whether it's more unlikely that the entire AFC East is at .500 or better entering Week 6 or that these teams are currently tied, but the winner here gets to stay in first place. Shockingly, there's a heavy favorite as to who that will be, but the Jets are almost certain to be an underdog in every remaining game this season, so it's a role they've grown accustomed to even though they come off a win as a road favorite in Cleveland.
New York has won three in a row in a season where its projected win total closed at 3.5 at Westgate, riding a defense that has pitched first-half shutouts in two of the last three weeks and has stifled opponents in the red zone. Of course, the quarterbacks they've faced include luminaries Jay Cutler, Blake Bortles, Kizer and Hogan, so we'll see if they can have similar success against Tom Brady. New England has dominated this for the majority of the past two decades, winning 23 of the last 30 meetings.
Bill Belichick is 11-2 against New York since his team's 2010 playoff loss, a run that opened with a 45-3 win and featured a 41-3 rout in the most recent meeting last Christmas Eve. That was only one of two covers New England has recorded over its last 10 games against the Jets. The Pats have prevailed in 10 straight road games (9-1 ATS), only failing to cover in last season's 22-17 Nov. 27 win over these Jets. Tom Brady (shoulder) and Rob Gronkowski (thigh) will play.
Dolphins at Falcons: Adam Gase's team has won five of their last seven games outside south Florida, but find themselves in a major offensive rut, having scored a single offensive touchdown in three of their four games and getting shutout by the Saints in the outlier. Jay Ajayi has played through a nagging knee injury, while Jay Cutler's passing yardage has decreased every week thus far. That's likely to change this week since the bar is set so low (92 yards), unless he struggles so much that some Dolphins fans get their wish and Matt Moore gets a shot. It won't help that WR DeVante Parker is unlikely to play due to an ankle injury. Offensive line issues have certainly played a key role in the regression, so it will be interesting to see how the team responds following the controversy that cost line coach Chris Foerster his job.
Atlanta, meanwhile, comes off a drama-free bye week that allowed the offense to catch get back in the lab after being held to a season-low 17 points in a loss to Buffalo, their second-lowest point total since 2015. Steve Sarkisian's offense failed to score in the first and third quarter against Buffalo and turned it over three times. There were two other fumbles that they recovered, so it was a sloppy performance that continued a theme since Matt Ryan threw three picks in a 30-26 win at Detroit. The reigning NFL MVP will have Julio Jones back in the mix as his main target after he left in the first half of the Buffalo loss due to a hip flexor injury. No. 2 WR Mohamed Sanu still needs a few more weeks to heal his injured hamstring, which could give other weapons like Andre Roberts, Justin Hardy and TE Austin Hooper more targets. The Dolphins list CB Byron Marshall as questionable, while Atlanta will have speedy playmaker Vic Beasley back to help make up for pass rusher Courtney Upshaw's absence.
Lions at Saints: Detroit has won each of the last three seasons, averaging 29 points per game while outrushing New Orleans and applying more defensive pressure. The last two wins have come in New Orleans, which is where nine of the last 12 matchups have taken place. The Saints have only won once in Detroit in the last 25 years, rolling 42-7 behind Drew Brees back in 2008 against a team that ultimately went winless. Matthew Stafford was drafted No. 1 the next year, lost his first two matchups against Brees in '11, including dropping an NFC wild card game, but has since dominated the series. He popped up on the injury report with an ailing quad and hurt ankle, but is expected to play.
The Saints avoided committing a turnover in any of their first four games, the first time Brees has managed that in his career, so they'll be looking to secure a winning record this deep into a season for the first time since opening 5-0 in 2013. Tackles Terron Armstead and Andrus Peat each have a chance to play following the layoff, which would definitely help the cause against a Lions defensive front loaded with athletes. The best of the pass-rushers, Ziggy Ansah, is listed as questionable with a lingering knee issue he's been able to play through. Only LB Paul Worrilow has been ruled out for Detroit.
Packers at Vikings: Case Keenum gets another turn under center, coming in 2-2 in games where he's had to step in for Sam Bradford. The latest pinch-hitting appearance was his first coming in off the bench, as he helped pull out Monday night's 20-17 win in Chicago after Bradford couldn't continue. He's 1-2 in starts and will have to make due with out top wideout Stefon Diggs, who won't play due to a groin injury that really limited the Vikings' passing attack against the Bears. Safety Andrew Sendejo is also a key question mark for Minnesota, while guard Nick Easton won't play.
The Packers are going to be thin in the back with safety Morgan Burnett sidelined, won't have LB Joe Thomas and list LB Ahmad Brooks and CB Kevin King as doubtful. Davon House should play, but if he suffers a setback, depth in the secondary will be scarce. Aaron Rodgers rescued a win in Dallas and is hoping to have top tackles Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari back to provide even more protection. RB Aaron Jones has emerged in Ty Montogmery's absence, but the receiver turned back is hopeful to return from suffering broken ribs. Jordy Nelson's back was also a concern in practice this week, so how much he can do remains to be seen. Green Bay is 11-3-1 SU against Minnesota over the last 14 meetings and haven't lost by more than a single possession in any of those games.
Bears at Ravens: The other team facing a short week situation also has to overcome a rookie quarterback making his first road start. Mitch Trubisky threw his first career touchdown pass on a ball that probably should've been intercepted and threw two picks he wasn't as fortunate on, the last of which ended up setting Minnesota's game-winning field goal. His athleticism still made him an improvement over Mike Glennon since he created offense with his ability to buy time and move the pocket, but he's not going to have the impact Watson has had with Houston.
Baltimore has a veteran defense that has already posted one shutout (at Cincinnati) and picked off rookie DeShone Kizer three times in his road debut, so defensive coordinator Dean Pees is sure to challenge Trubisky. He'll probably have to do so without DT Brandon Williams and OLB Tim Williams, both of whom are doubtful. Corner Jimmy Smith is going to play, but DT Carl Davis is questionable. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Ravens are 14-1 at home vs. rookie QBs in their 22-year history, losing to Jake Plummer back in 1997. They're 9-0 under John Harbaugh, who will have to stay perfect despite missing a pair offensive starters in RB Terrance West and lineman Matt Skura. Buck Allen and Alex Collins will continue to get carries.
49ers at Redskins: Kyle Shanahan encounters former pupil Kirk Cousins for the second time in a regular-season game, winning as offensive coordinator in OT when Cousins threw a walk-off pick-six in OT against the Falcons in 2015. He's now looking for his first win as a head coach, having lost four games by a combined 11 points. The last two losses have come in OT, and the schedule has done him no favors as this is the team's fourth road game in five weeks and third in succession. The team released veteran LB NaVorro Bowman, which frees up the middle for rookie Reuben Foster, who seeks to return from an ankle injury. Safety Eric Reid could also return from a knee injury that's forced him to miss the last few games.
Although Washington comes off an early bye week that it badly needed, the extra time off wasn't enough to ensure the healthy return of numerous key figures. Left tackle Trent Williams, still limping around due to a knee injury, is questionable. Top corner Josh Norman will sit due to his rib injury, DB Deshazor Everett is doubtful and LB Zach Brown is questionable. Considering the next five weeks feature road games at Philadelphia, Seattle and New Orleans in addition to home dates against the Cowboys and Vikings, handling business against one of the NFL's three winless squads at home is a must.
Rams at Jaguars: One of the NFL's top young defenses awaits the arrival of a new-look attack that has made the league take notice over the first five gaems. The winner of this L.A./Jacksonville matchup will unexpectedly move to 4-2, atop their division, even if likely not in sole possession of first place. Considering the Jags never won a fourth game last season and L.A. stopped at five, losing 11 of 12, it's a big deal to take a significant step forward into contention. Only the Chiefs (32.8) are averaging more points per game than the Rams (30.4), while Jacksonville (16.6) surrenders fewer points than anyone but Buffalo (14.8), so this should be determined by the team that best imposes its will.
Both teams are relatively helathy, particularly in their areas of strength. The Rams are a bit banged up in their back seven with LB/S Mark Barron and DB Lamarcus Joyner each questionable and CB Troy Hill considered doubtful to play. Jacksonville has struggled to replace the explosiveness of projected big-play WRs Allen Robinson and Dede Westbrook, who have been out since the opening week, while center Brandon Linder will miss his second straight game due to an undisclosed illness. Tyler Shatley filled in for the upset at Pittsburgh and will make his sixth start here. This will be just the fourth-ever meeting between these franchises. The Rams are 1-3, but the Jaguars won in OT in the lone meeting in Jacksonville back on Oct. 18, 2009.
"The wiseguys hit Jacksonville and Tampa Bay early, and hard. Those were bad numbers," Oddsmaker.eu spokesman Scott Cooley said. "Probably should have opened each at -2 or even -3. Trying to entice some money on the other sides."
Buccaneers at Cardinals: The game above involves two of the NFL's biggest surprises. This one is all about avoiding becoming one of the most disappointing. Arizona is already under .500, while Tampa Bay arrives 2-2, owning wins over the Giants and Bears, who enter Sunday's game a combined 1-9. The Bucs will be playing just their second road game and are making their only trip of the season to the west coast, so it's fortunate that even with no bye due to Week 1's hurricane-related cancellation, they're coming in off their longest layoff. Tampa Bay fell 19-14 against the Patriots two Thursdays ago and should be healthier. Although LB Kwon Alexander and safety Keith Tandy remain out, fellow starting LB Lavonte David and S T.J. Ward are likley to return. DE Robert Ayers is also back, so Tampa Bay is healthier than its been in a few weeks. It also has a new kicker, replacing Nick Folk with Patrick Murray, back for a second tour with the Bucs after injuries have shelved him the past few seasons.
Jameis Winston threw four interceptions and lost a fumble in last season's 40-7 to the Cardinals, so you know he's had this game circled. He hasn't been intercepted in three of his four starts, but he was picked off in his only road game. Patrick Peterson (quad) should play despite coming in questionable, but DT Corey Peters (knee), DT Robert Nkemdiche (calf) and LB Karlos Dansby (hamstring) are all questionable. Arizona is hoping a 34-7 loss in Philadelphia last Sunday was rock bottom, since they're still hopeful that David Johnson can return by early December and help the Cardinals make a playoff run. Adrian Peterson, acquired for a conditional draft pick earlier in the week, will debut and should get early-down carries with Andre Ellington getting third-down work. With a trip to London scheduled for next week for a divisional game against the Rams, this feels like a must-win for Arizona.
Steelers at Chiefs: Pittsburgh was favored to win the Super Bowl by Westgate entering Week 5, but its awful loss to the Jaguars dropped it to fourth at 7-to-1, coming in behind New England (9/2), Green Bay (5/1) and Kansas City (6/1). This Chiefs team is one it will likely have to get through again come postseason, making this potential preview the top matchup we're getting this weekend. Whether it lives up to expectations will depend on whether Ben Roethlisberger can rebound from a five-interception day against Jacksonville. The future Hall of Fame QB has played considerably better at home than he has on the road over the past few seasons, so Arrowhead isn't the ideal venue for him to bounce back in. He's 2-1 in Kansas City, leading the Steelers to an 18-16 win in the AFC Divisional playoffs in the most recent meeting back in mid-January, setting up six field goals. He's thrown for 815 yards with four TD passes and 4 INTs in three career starts there. The return of RT Marcus Gilbert should help, especially if LG Ramon Foster can play after failing to practice all week due to a back issue.
Kansas City's ability to pressure requires all hands on deck for the Steelers, especially since Justin Logan, Dee Ford and Bennie Logan will all play this week. The Chiefs got great news regarding skill players Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Albert Wilson too, so Alex Smith will have all his weapons to work with. The offensive line will need to be shuffled again since center Mitch Morse (foot) and guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (knee) will miss this key contest. Rookie RB Kareem Hunt leads the NFL in rushing yardage (609) and key rushing categories like yards after contact (338) and forced missed tackles (35).
Chargers at Raiders: Derek Carr is set to return after breaking bones in his back two weeks ago in Denver, which means a merciful end to the temporary E.J. Manuel era. In fairness, the Raiders didn't fall off a cliff due to their QB since Carr was present for the Sunday night debacle in Landover to close out September that started their current three-game losing streak. Oakland has been outscored 73-37 and never really been in any of the games, falling behind almost immediately. Amari Cooper caught one pass for 28 yards last week and has gotten in his own head, so the Raiders badly need to turn this home game into a revival. Super Bowl odds dipped to 30/1 this week, the lowest they've been all season.
By comparison, the Chargers are at 300/1 despite finally picking up their first win by outlasting the Giants 27-22. They've faced the two teams that already have compiled five wins and also were forced to visit Denver, so it's hard to lump this team in among the league's bottom-five even though they reside there record-wise. Not having any homefield advantage at Carson's Stub Hub Center means they'll be fine in Oakland, or even Santa Clara if the NFL winds up moving the game there due to air quality. Philip Rivers has dropped four consecutive games over the last two years, losing the last three contests by three points each time. The expectation is that he'll finally have rookie receiver Mike Williams in the mix to throw to, which gives him a full compliment of weapons to work with against a depleted Raiders secondary.
Giants at Broncos: NBC certainly didn't envision an 0-5 team being a part of this one and had no way to forecast such a depleted version of the Giants visiting Invesco Field at Mile High. WRs Odell Beckham, Jr., Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard join center Weston Richburg on the sidelines for the offense here, while DE Olivier Vernon (ankle) is hurt, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is suspended and safety Landon Collins is questionable due to an ankle injury. New York hasn't won in Denver since 1989, losing its last three meetings.
Denver comes off a bye, so complacency could be a factor to deal with. It's up to first-year head coach Vance Joseph to prove he can keep his team focused since the Broncos' next three games all come on the road against the Chargers, Chiefs and Eagles before they return home for another Sunday night date (Nov. 12) against the Patriots.
Monday, Oct. 9
Colts at Titans: It sounds like we won't know about Marcus Mariota's availability due to an injured hamstring until closer to kickoff. He's hopeful that he'll be able to participate and did work all week that suggests there's a realistic possibility he'll return and this isn't just a smokescreen to force the Colts to prepare for him instead of putting in more work on backup Matt Cassel. Save your jokes about that being light duty, though they do ring true given his showing in Sunday's loss in Miami, an effort that displayed the depths bad quarterback play can sink to. Even though it would potentially be easier for Cassel to find a rhythm at home, the Titans badly need their franchise QB back for a key divisional game. LT Taylor Lewan should play after leaving the Dolphins loss early due to an injured knee.
Indianapolis is looking for consecutive wins, something it managed only once last season. Jacoby Brissett has settled in as the starter, throwing for a career-high 314 yards in Sunday's OT win over San Francisco. He's 2-2 in his starts, throwing a pair of TD passes, three interceptions and has rushed for three scores. He's not Andrew Luck, but he has displayed growth since arriving in town in early September. Tight end Jack Doyle caught 15 passes on 20 targets from him before missing last week's game with a concussion, but he could clear protocol this week given the extra day. This is arguably the healthiest Indy has been all season, though Andrew Luck is likely still weeks away.
