Cnotes 2017 College Football Picks-Trends-News Etc. !

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 11
November 7, 2017


TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 7


Matchup Skinny Edge


AKRON at MIAMI-OHIO...Four straight wins and two straight covers for Bowden vs. Miami-O. Zips 6-2 vs. line last eight TY, RedHawks only 1-3 at Yager Stadium TY.
Akron, based on team and series trends.


BOWLING GREEN at BUFFALO... Rare win and cover last week for BG, now just 2-7 vs. line TY, Jinks 6-15 vs. line since LY. Buff has covered last three in series.
Buffalo, based on team and series trends.


WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 8


Matchup Skinny Edge


KENT STATE at WESTERN MICHIGAN...Painful Kent State on 3-8 spread skid since late LY. WMU, however, only 1-4 vs. line at Waldo TY and 3-6 vs. spread post-Fleck.
Slight to WMU, based on recent Kent woes.

TOLEDO at OHIO...Solich on 7-2 spread surge TY, also 8-3 last 11 vs. line in MAC. Solich 9-3 as dog since 2015 (1-1 TY). Rockets now four straight covers after 3-10-1 spread slump previous 14.
Ohio, based on team trends.


EASTERN MICHIGAN at CENTRAL MICHIGAN... EMU still rock ‘n roll vs. spread, 7-2 TY, now 16-4 last 20 since early LY, now 11 straight covers away from Ypsilanti! Covered last two vs. CMU. Chips recovering a bit but still just 6-13 vs. spread last 19 on board.
EMU, based on team trends.


THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 9


Matchup Skinny Edge


BALL STATE at NORTHERN ILLINOIS....Ball really falling, no covers last five TY, now 0-6-1 last seven on board. Though NIU on 1-4 spread skid itself, has covered last 5 and won last 8 SU vs. Cards. Huskies 9-3 last 12 laying DDs.
NIU, based on team and series trends.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN at APP STATE...GSU 2-501 vs. line TY, 5-14-1 vs. spread since 2016. Overrated App, however, just 2-7 vs. spread in 2017, 4-12 last 16 as Boone chalk.
Slight to App State, based on GaSo woes.


NORTH CAROLINA at PITTSBURGH... Fedora 1-8 SU, 2-7 vs. line TY, on 2-8-1 spread skid since late LY. Narduzzi only 5-13 vs. spread at Heinz Field since 2015, however.
Slight to Pittsburgh, based on UNC woes.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 10


Matchup Skinny Edge

TEMPLE at CINCINNATI...Owls have won and covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 in series. Temple has recovered from slow start with covers in 4 of last 5. Bearcats just 2-10 vs. line last 12 at Nippert.
Temple, based on team trends.


WASHINGTON at STANFORD...Petersen 8-4 last 12 on board. Tree only 7-11-1 last 19 on board and was drilled in Seattle LY, though hadn’t lost to Huskies previously since 2012.
Slight to Washington, based on recent trends.

BYU at UNLV...Cougs were on 9-game spread skid before San Jose win. UNLV 3-7 last ten as chalk.
Slight to UNLV, based on team trends.


SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 11


Matchup Skinny Edge


MICHIGAN at MARYLAND...Harbaugh 5-10-1 last 16 on board. Durkin 2-5 as visiting dog since LY.
Slight to Maryland, based on team trends.

FLORIDA at SOUTH CAROLINA...Gators 2-7-2 last 11 vs. spread since late LY, Muschamp on 7-2-1 spread uptick.
South Carolina, based on recent trends.


VIRGINIA TECH at GEORGIA TECH... Road team has covered seven straight in series. VPI 5-2 vs. points last 6 away from Blacksburg, Paul Johnson, however, on 10-1-1 spread run, and is 12-6-1 as dog since 2014.
Slight to Georgia Tech, based on team trends.


TULANE at EAST CAROLINA...ECU on 3-15-1 spread skid for Montgomery since early 2016.
Tulane, based on ECU woes.

NC STATE at BOSTON COLLEGE...Surging BC on 6-game spread win streak, five of those as an underdog. Road team has covered last three meetings, NCS 5-2 vs. line last seven as visitor.
Slight to Boston College, based on recent trends.

UCONN at UCF...Frost 14-7 vs. spread at UCF (if counting Cincy as a W earlier TY), and 6-3 as DD chalk (if counting Cincy). Edsall as covered 3 of last 4 TY but Huskies still on 3-11 spread skid since mid 2016.
UCF, based on team trends.


WAKE FOREST at SYRACUSE...Wake on 13-4 spread run since mid 2016, 5-2 last seven away from Winston-Salem. Cuse had won and covered three straight in series into last year. Babers has covered 6 of last 7 TY but only 3-7 vs. spread last 10 at Carrier Dome (2-3 TY).
Slight to Wake Forest, based on team trends.


RUTGERS at PENN STATE...‘Gers actually 6-2 vs. line TY, 3-0 vs. line away. But James Franklin on 16-3 spread uptick since early 2016 and has covered 9 of last 10 at Happy Valley.
Penn State, based on team trends.


DUKE at ARMY... Cutcliffe has won and covered last two years in series. Blue Devils, however, on 1-4 spread skid after preceding 13-5 spread uptick. Army 1-4 vs. spread at Michie this season.
Slight to Duke, based on team and series trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at OHIO STATE...Dantonio 206 in role since 2011. Spartans have also covered 3 of last four vs. Urban Meyer. Urban 1-4 vs. line at home TY, now 6-15 vs. spread last 21 at Big Horseshoe.
Michigan State, based on team and series trends.


INDIANA at ILLINOIS...Lovie just 3-9 last 12 on board since late LY, and 3-8 vs. line last 11 at Champaign-Urbana. Hoosiers just 1-5 last six vs. number on Big Ten road, and 5-10-1 vs. points last 16 since mid 2016.
Slight to Indiana, based on team trends.

TROY at COASTAL CAROLINA...Troy 3-1-1 vs. spread last five away from home though just 2-6-1 vs. line overall in 2017.
Slight to Troy, based on team trends.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE at CHARLOTTE...Charlotte 4-1 vs. line last four TY, but did same LY before late fade.. MTSU has won and covered last two meetings.
Slight to MTSU, based on recent series trends.

WYOMING at AIR FORCE...Bohl on 6-game cover streak TY and now 11-3 last 14 as dog. Wyo has also covered 8 straight vs. Force. Calhoun 2-10 vs. points last 12 as chalk.
Wyoming, based on team and series trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at NEVADA... Pack 6-1 last seven vs. spread at Reno vs. Spartans. SJSU 2-9 vs. line last 11 as visitor.
Nevada, based on team and series trends.

TEXAS TECH vs. BAYLOR (at Jerry Jones Stadium, Arlington)...Tech on 0-4 skid after 5-0-1 mark previous six, but 6-3 last 9 vs. line away from Lubbock. Bears only 6-10 vs. spread last 16 on board.
Slight to Texas Tech, based on team trends.

WEST VIRGINIA at KANSAS STATE...Bill Snyder 5-0 vs. line against Holgorsen since Mounties entered Big 12 in 2012.
Kansas State, based on Snyder vs. WVU trends.

TCU at OKLAHOMA... Patterson 10-4 as dog since 2013. Sooners just 2-4 vs. line last five TY.
TCU, based on team trends.


OKLAHOMA STATE at IOWA STATE...ISU has covered last two in series and now 6-2-1 vs. line TY. Matt Campbell 20-11-1 as dog with Toledo and Cyclones. OSU 3-5-1 vs. line last nine on Big 12 road.
Iowa State, based on recent and Campbell as dog trends.

VIRGINIA at LOUSIVILLE...Cavs have covered all three vs. Cards since 2014. ‘Ville 2-7 vs. line TY, Petrino now on 2-11 and 4-14 spread skids dating to mid 2016.
Virginia, based on series trends and recent Petrino woes.


NOTRE DAME at MIAMI-FLA...Richt teams at Georgia and Miami just 1-3 as dog since 2013. Richt, however, on 14-0 SU run since mid 2016. Irish 7-2 vs. line TY.
Slight to Notre Dame, based on recent trends.


SMU at NAVY...Mids have abused SMU, blowouts past two years by 130-45 total score! Though Navy only 3-4-1 vs. line TY and 0-3-1 vs. spread at Annapolis after 9-3 spread mark previous 12 at home.
Slight to Navy, based on recent series trends.


WASHINGTON STATE at UTAH...Leach only 1-6 vs. spread last seven away from Pullman, though is 15-6 as visiting chalk since 2013. Utah 11-3 last 14 as dog.
Slight to Utah, if dog, based on team trends.

PURDUE at NORTHWESTERN...Boilermakers 2-0 as road dog TY and 14-3 in role since late 2013. Road team has also covered last three years in series. Pat Fitz 6-1 vs. line last seven TY, but 9-13 as Evanston chalk since 2013 (2-1 in role TY).
Slight to Purdue, based on team trends.

ULL at OLE MISS... Ole Miss 4-12 last 16 vs. spread since mid 2016. Also 1-6 last seven vs. spread non-SEC and 1-8 last nine as chalk. ULL just 2-6 vs. spread TY and 1-3 as road dog after 3-0 mark in role LY.
Slight to ULL, based on Ole Miss negatives.

NEBRASKA at MINNESOTA...Note that road team has covered all nine Huskers games in 2017 (Riley 3-0 vs. spread away!). Riley now 7-2 vs. points last 9 as visitor and has won and covered last two years vs. Gophers. Fleck only 3-5-1 vs. points in Gopher debut and 2-3 vs. spread as host.
Nebraska, based on team and recent series trends.


ALABAMA at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Dan Mullen 3-5 vs. spread against Saban, with Ls the past two years. Though MSU is 4-1 vs. line at home in 2017. Bama is 9-2 vs. number last 11 as SEC visitor.
Alabama, based on team trends.


FAU at LA TECH...FAU had covered 4 in a row and 6 of 7 before gifting a cover to Marshall. Kiffin 3-1 vs. line away TY. Skip just 1-3 vs. line at home TY and 4-5 vs. line at Ruston since LY.
FAU, based on recent trends.


SOUTHERN MISS at RICE...Owls just 2-7 vs. line TY. Road team has covered last three years in series. Golden Eagles have covered last four away from home and 8-2 vs. points last ten on board.
USM, based on team and series road trends.


USC at COLORADO...Trojans 4-11 vs. points last 11 away from Coliseum. CU has covered three of last four in series.
Colorado, based on team and series trends.


IOWA at WISCONSIN... Hawks only 4-6 vs. spread last ten away from Iowa City (1-2 TY). Iowa 8-4-1 vs. points last 13 Big Ten games, however. Chryst just 3-4-1 vs. spread last 8 as Big Ten host, though 17-7-1 last 25 overall vs. spread.
Slight to Wisconsin, based on team trends.


GEORGIA at AUBURN...Dawgs have won and covered last three meetings after Auburn miracle win in Malzahn Tiger debut year of 2013. Kirby Smart has covered last six away from Athens. Malzahn on 3-1001 spread skid since late 2016, and just 6-13 vs. line last 19 at Jordan-Hare.
Georgia, based on team and series trends.

TENNESSEE at MISSOURI...Butch has won and covered last two vs. Mizzou after Tigers had won three previous in series. But Voles 5-11-2 last 18 on board. Tigers on 5-game cover streak TY.
Mizzou, based on recent trends.


NEW MEXICO at TEXAS A&M... Sumlin on 5-19-1 spread skid at Kyle Field and 7-23-1 vs. points since 2013 after facing Bama. Bob Davie 13-7 vs. spread last 20 as dog for Lobos.
New Mexico, based on team trends.


ARIZONA STATE at UCLA...Mora on 6-16-1 spread skid, 4-8 last 12 at Rose Bowl. Also 1-3 vs. line last four vs. ASU. Sun Devils 5-1-1 vs. spread last seven TY, Graham 2-0-1 vs. spread away in 2017.
ASU, based on team trends.

KENTUCKY at VANDERBILT...Dores have won and covered last three at home in series and have covered 5 of last 6 vs. Cats.
Vandy, based on series trends.


ARKANSAS STATE at SOUTH ALABAMA...Ark State rolling with wins and covers four in a row TY. Red Wolves on 12-4 spread uptick since mid 2016. Also covered last four and won last 5 SU vs. USA. Jags 7-16-1 vs. points as host since 2014.
Arkansas State, based on team and series trends.


GEORGIA STATE at TEXAS STATE...GSU 4-1-1 vs. line last 5 TY, and 12-3-1 vs. spread last 15 on Belt road. Panthers also won and covered big vs. Bobcats last 2 years. Withers just 2-7 vs. spread last 8 at Bobcat Stadium.
Georgia State, based on team trends.


UTEP at NORTH TEXAS...UTEP has won and covered last three meetings, though Miners just 6-13-1 last 20 on board and 1-4-1 last six away from Sun Bowl vs. points.
North Texas, based on recent UTEP woes.


KANSAS at TEXAS...KU beat Charlie Strong LY. But Jayhawks just 1-7-1 vs. line TY and Tom Herman 6-1-1 last seven on board.
Texas, based on recent trends.


WKU at MARSHALL...Tops just 1-7-1 vs. line TY for Sanford, Jr. Brohm won and covered his last three vs. Herd as WKU scored over 55 ppg in process. Herd, however, has recovered to 7-2 spread mark TY after FAU miracle.
Marshall, based on recent trends.


ODU at FIU...Butch Davis won and covered last 3 TY, and Monarchs just 1-5 as visiting dog since LY.
FIU, based on recent trends.


UAB at UTSA...UAB has covered 6 of last 7 TY and last four as dog, and 8-3 as dog since 2014. UTSA only 1-4 last four vs. spread TY, no covers in three tries at Alamodome.
UAB, based on team trends.


FLORIDA STATE at CLEMSON...Jimbo 0-8 vs. line TY. Dog has covered last three in this series and Dabo just 0-4-1 last five as ACC host at Death Valley.
Slight to Clemson, based on recent FSU negatives.


ARKANSAS at LSU...Arkansas had won 2 in a row and covered 4 straight vs. LSU prior to LY’s 38-10 loss. Bielema on 5-13-1 spread skid since early LY and only 6-8 last 14 in once-profitable dog role. Orgeron just 1-4 last five vs. line at Baton Rouge but overall 10-6-1 vs. spread since taking over midway LY.
LSU, based on recent trends.

OREGON STATE at ARIZONA...Beavs have covered 3 of last 4 TY, note OSU also began to cover numbers midway and late in 2016. They’re now 10-7 last 16 on board. Zona has won 4-1 SU last five TY but Cats were just 4-14 vs. line in 18 previous games. Rich-Rod is 11-6 last 17 laying DD, however.
Slight to Arizona, based on team trends.


BOISE STATE at COLORADO STATE...Boise 4-0 vs. line away TY. Broncos now 13-4 vs. spread last 17 as visitor. CSU no covers last four TY and just 1-3 vs. line in new stadium. Broncos 6-0 SU in series since 2011.
Boise State, based on team trends.


FRESNO STATE at HAWAII...FSU 6-2-1 vs. line TY, and 11-4-1 last 16 vs. line. UH no covers last 7, 1-13 vs. line last 14 as MW host.
Fresno State, based on team trends.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Dunkel


Week 11


Tuesday, November 7

Akron @ Miami of Ohio


Game 101-102
November 7, 2017 @ 7:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Akron
75.515
Miami of Ohio
71.422
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Akron
by 4
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami of Ohio
by 7
51
Dunkel Pick:
Akron
(+7); Over


Bowling Green @ Buffalo


Game 103-104
November 7, 2017 @ 7:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Bowling Green
72.435
Buffalo
72.530
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Bowling Green
Even
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 8 1/2
59 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Bowling Green
(+8 1/2); Over








NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 11


Akron won its last four games with Miami (2-1-1 vs spread), winning 37-28/24-17 in its last two visits here. Zips won four of their last five games, covered five of their six games; their last two wins were both by a point. Akron is 2-2 vs spread as a road underdog this season. Miami lost four of last five games, losing two of last three at home, to Cincy/Bowling Green. RedHawks are 2-6 vs spread this season, 1-4 as a favorite- they lost four of their five home games. Under is 7-1 in Akron games. Home teams are 11-17 vs spread in MAC games this season.


Bowling Green is 2-7 this season, but they split last four games; Falcons are 1-5 vs spread as an underdog this year, but they did win their last two road games. Buffalo lost its last four games after a 3-2 start; Bulls’ three I-A home games were decided by a total of seven points- they beat FAU 34-31, lost the other two. Buffalo lost its last six games with Bowling Green, but covered last three. Falcons won their last six visits to Buffalo (4-2 vs spread). Last four Falcon games went over the total. MAC home favorites are 8-8 vs spread this season.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Long Sheet


Tuesday, November 7


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


AKRON (5 - 4) at MIAMI OHIO (3 - 6) - 11/7/2017, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
AKRON is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
AKRON is 2-0 straight up against MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BOWLING GREEN (2 - 7) at BUFFALO (3 - 6) - 11/7/2017, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOWLING GREEN is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 50-29 ATS (+18.1 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
BOWLING GREEN is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
BOWLING GREEN is 52-33 ATS (+15.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
BOWLING GREEN is 39-21 ATS (+15.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-0 against the spread versus BOWLING GREEN over the last 3 seasons
BOWLING GREEN is 2-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAF


Week 11


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tuesday, November 7


AKRON @ MIAMI-OH
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Akron's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Akron's last 6 games on the road
Miami-OH is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Akron
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami-OH's last 9 games when playing Akron


BOWLING GREEN @ BUFFALO
Bowling Green is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Bowling Green is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Bowling Green
Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

 

[CNOTES]

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 7
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


BGSU at BUFF 07:30 PM


BGSU +8.0 *****


U 60.5 *****




AKR at M-OH 07:30 PM


AKR +7.5 *****


U 55.0 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Ragland, Young lead Miami (Ohio) past Akron 24-14
November 7, 2017


OXFORD, Ohio (AP) Gus Ragland threw three touchdown passes, Kenny Young had a combined 198 yards rushing and receiving, and Miami (Ohio) kept Akron from becoming bowl eligible with a 24-14 victory on Tuesday night.


Ragland was 19-of-32 passing for 244 yards and two interceptions. It was the first time the RedHawks (4-6, 2-3 Mid-American Conference) won a game in which Ragland threw an interception. He was 8-0 in games without a pick and 0-5 with a pick.


Ragland hit Sam Martin for a 19-yard score in the first quarter to tie the game at 7. Young turned a short pass into a 30-yard score, his first-ever TD reception, in the third quarter before James Gardner's 19-yard reception made it 24-7 entering the fourth.


Young finished with nine catches for 98 yards, both career highs, and rushed 14 times for 100.


Nelson Kato opened the scoring with a 7-yard run and found Tra'Von Chapman for a 30-yard TD for the Zips (5-5, 4-2).


**********************


Buffalo trio leads Bulls to 38-28 win over Bowling Green
November 7, 2017


BUFFALO, N.Y. (AP) Tyree Jackson and Theo Anderson had career games, and Anthony Johnson went over 1,000 yards receiving to lead Buffalo to a 38-28 win over Bowling Green on Tuesday night.


Jackson was 23 of 37 passing for a career-high 406 yards and three touchdowns for the Bulls (4-6, 2-4 Mid-American Conference). It marked the first time that two players threw for at least 400 yards in a game in the same season for Buffalo. Drew Anderson, now injured, had 597 yards in a seven-overtime loss to Western Michigan.


Two of the touchdowns went to Johnson, who had eight receptions for 160 yards, pushing him to 1,048. It's the sixth 1,000-yard receiving season in Buffalo history, and Johnson is the fourth player to reach that milestone. Johnson had two TD receptions in the first quarter, including a career-best 69-yarder, as Buffalo jumped to a 21-7 lead.


Anderson carried 22 times for a career-high 133 yards. His 8-yard touchdown capped the scoring with 8:53 to play as Buffalo ended a six-game losing streak against Bowling Green.


Jarret Dodge threw for 294 yards and two touchdowns to keep the Falcons (2-8, 2-4) in the game.

 

[CNOTES]

Wednesday's MAC Action
November 7, 2017


There are three games on tap in the MAC on Wednesday night. That means college football bettors have six options with sides and totals. Let’s get you ready for the action with in-depth previews of two games and some notes on the other.

**Toledo at Ohio**


-- In what might be a preview of the MAC Championship Game, Ohio (7-2 straight up, 7-2 against the spread) will play host to Toledo in a battle between division leaders. The Bobcats were in a first-place tie with Akron (pending the Zips’ Tuesday night result at Miami (OH) in the East with identical 4-1 league records. Meanwhile, Toledo holds a one-half game lead over Northern Illinois in the West. The Rockets are 5-0 in conference play, while the Huskies are 4-1.


-- As of Tuesday night, most betting shops had Toledo (8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) listed as a four-point road ‘chalk’ with a total of 65. The Bobcats were +155 on the money line (risk $100 to win $155).


-- Toledo took its only loss at Miami by a 52-30 count as a 13.5-point road underdog. However, this was a misleading final, as the Rockets led 16-10 at halftime and trailed by only eight midway through the fourth quarter.


-- Jason Candle’s team is 3-0 both SU and ATS as a road favorite this season. The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in five such spots since Candle took over for current Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell going into the 2016 campaign.


-- Toledo has ripped off five consecutive wins since the loss at Miami. The Rockets have covered the number in four straight, winning each of those games by double-digit margins. They’re off last week’s 27-17 win over No. Illinois last Thursday as 7.5-point home favorites. Senior quarterback Logan Woodside completed 23-of-31 passes for 361 yards, while senior RB Terry Swanson rushed for 116 yards and three TDs on 29 carries. Sophomore WR Diontae Jonson had 10 receptions for 166 yards, while sophomore TE Jordan Fisher brought down six catches for 102 yards.


-- Woodside, a first-team All-MAC selection in 2016 when he threw for 4,129 yards with a stellar 45/9 TD-INT, hasn’t missed a beat despite losing his favorite target Cody Thompson to a season-ending injury. Thompson, a senior WR who was also a first-team All-MAC pick in ’16, went down in early October. He had 28 catches for 537 yards and four TDs in the team’s first four games (and change; he was injured early in a 20-15 home win over Eastern Michigan). Woodside has connected on 64.3 percent of his throws for 2,656 yards with a 19/2 TD-INT ratio.


-- Diontae Jonson has a team-best 46 receptions for 859 yards and eight TDs. Jon’Vea Johnson, a second-team All-MAC selection last season, has 24 grabs for 354 yards and three TDs.


-- Toledo is three-deep in the backfield. Swanson gets the bulk of the touches and he’s rushed for 844 yards and 11 TDs, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Shakif Seymour has run for 468 yards and six TDs with a 6.6 YPC average, while Art Thompkins has rushed for 466 yards and one TD with a 5.5 YPC average.


-- Toledo is sixth in the nation in total offense, averaging 519.7 yards per game. The Rockets are ranked 19th in the country in passing offense, 23rd in rushing and 14th in scoring with a 39.0 points-per-game average.


-- Since losing 26-23 to Central Michigan as a 10.5-point home favorite on Oct. 7, Frank Solich’s 13th team at Ohio has won three consecutive games both SU and ATS. Solich’s squad has won those three games by margins of 17 points or more, including last Tuesday’s 45-28 win over Miami (OH.) as a 6.5-point home favorite. The 73 combined points soared above the 54-point total to provide the Bobcats with their third straight ‘over.’ Nathan Rourke completed 21-of-33 passes for 294 yards and three TDs without an interception. Rourke absolutely dominated the game, rushing for 54 yards and three TDs on 10 attempts as well. RB A.J. Ouellette added 80 rushing yards on 20 carries, while senior WR Brendan Cope had five catches for 80 yards and one TD. Papi White contributed five receptions for 80 yards and one TD.


-- Ohio’s only other loss of the year came in Week 2 when it dropped a 44-21 decision at Purdue. The Bobcats hosted Kansas in non-conference play, defeating the Jayhawks 42-20 as 7.5-point home ‘chalk.’


-- Rourke has completed 56.7 percent of his passes for 1,517 yards with a 13/3 TD-INT ratio. He has also run for 548 yards and 16 TDs, averaging 6.2 YPC. Ouellette has run for a team-best 832 yards and six TDs with a 5.9 YPC average. Dorian Brown has added 458 rushing yards, four TDs on the ground and a 5.7 YPC average.


-- Cope has been Rouke’s favorite target, making 31 catches for 436 yards and three TDs. Andrew Meyer has 25 receptions for 361 yards and two TDs, while White has 17 grabs for 312 yards and two TDs.


-- During Solich’s tenure, Ohio has compiled an 11-5 spread record in 16 games as a home underdog.


-- Toledo saw its 12-game winning streak over Ohio snapped in a 31-26 loss as a 15-point home favorite in last season’s meeting. Brown was the catalyst for the winners, rushing for 212 yards and one TD on 29 carries. White had three catches for 64 yards and one TD, in addition to five rushing attempts for 54 yards. In the losing effort, Woodside threw for 438 yards and three TDs with one interception. Swanson ran for 58 yards on 10 carries, while J-Johnson had six receptions for 156 yards and two TDs.


-- The ‘over’ is 7-2 overall for the Bobcats, 4-1 in their home outings. They’ve watched their games net combined scores of 66.9 PPG.


-- The ‘over’ is 5-4 overall for the Rockets, 2-2 in their four road assignments. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 63.4 PPG.


-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.


**Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan**


-- As of Tuesday night, most spots had Eastern Michigan (3-6 SU, 7-2 ATS) installed as a two-point road favorite. The Chippewas were +105 to win outright.


-- Eastern Michigan brought its brutal six-game losing streak to an end with last week’s 56-14 bludgeoning of Ball St. as a 25-point home favorite. Presuming you’d like me to define a ‘brutal’ six-game losing streak, here goes: EMU lost three of the six games in overtime, including back-to-back OT setbacks before the win over the Cardinals. The six defeats came by 23 combined points and the OT home loss to Ohio was the widest margin (seven; 27-20).


-- EMU started the season 2-0 both SU and ATS with a home win vs. Charlotte (24-7) and a 16-13 triumph at Rutgers. In the victory over Ball State, senior QB Brogan Roback connected on 15-of-21 passes for 263 yards and three TDs without an interception. Ian Eriksen ran 21 times for 114 yards and one TD, while Sergio Bailey contributed two catches for 110 yards and one TD.


-- For the season, Roback has completed 60.8 percent of his passes for 2,347 yards with a 14/8 TD-INT ratio. Bailey is his favorite target, hauling in 46 receptions for 763 yards and six TDs. Meanwhile, Antoine Porter has 38 catches for 464 yards and four TDs, while John Niupalau has 24 grabs for 328 yards and three TDs.


-- Eriksen, EMU’s junior RB, has produced a team-high 535 yards and five TDs with a 4.4 YPC average.


-- Eastern Michigan has lost four of its five games on the road, but it has hooked up its backers with an incredible 5-0 spread record.


-- This is only the second time Eastern Michigan has been a road favorite during Chris Creighton’s four-year tenure. The Eagles took the cash in the lone prior such situation by beating Charlotte 37-19 last year as three-point road ‘chalk.’


-- Central Michigan (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) has won three of its last four games both SU and ATS since dropping three consecutive games. John Bonamego’s squad won 35-28 at Western Michigan last week as a 3.5-point road underdog. The Chippewas rallied from a 28-14 deficit with less than 10 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Shane Morris threw both of his TD passes in the final stanza, including a 77-yard scoring strike to Corey Willis with 2:37 left. Jonathan Ward rushed for 130 yards and one TD on 18 carries. Morris threw for 243 yards without a pick and he also had a pair of scoring runs. Willis caught five balls for 148 yards and one TD, while Ward added four receptions for 81 yards.


-- For the season, Morris has completed 55.2 percent of his passes for 2,209 yards with an 18/11 TD-INT ratio. He’s also run for 136 yards and three scores. Ward has run for 590 yards and five TDs with a 5.2 YPC average. Willis, a second-team All-MAC selection last season, has 28 receptions for 441 yards and five TDs. He missed four games with an injury, though. Mark Chapman has a team-best 44 catches for 593 yards and three TDs, while Ward has 38 grabs for 326 yards and one TD.


-- CMU has limped to a 1-2 SU record and a 0-3 ATS mark at home. The Chippewas are 2-3 ATS as home ‘dogs on Bonamego’s watch, failing to cover in their lone such spot this year in a 30-10 loss to Toledo.


-- CMU has won four in a row over EMU until losing 26-21 last year. The Eagles prevailed thanks to Roback’s 24-yard scoring strike to Bailey with 21 ticks remaining.


-- The ‘under’ is 6-3 overall for CMU, 3-0 in its home contests. The Chippewas have seen their games produce average combined scores of 53.9 PPG.


-- The ‘under’ is 6-3 overall for EMU, 3-2 in its five road assignments. Their games have netted average combined scores of 45.0 PPG.


-- ESPNU will have the broadcast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**


-- Western Michigan will host Kent State in a third #MACtion game on Wednesday night. This 7:00 p.m. Eastern kick will be on the CBS Sports College Network. As of Tuesday night, most spots had the Broncos installed as 21.5-point favorites with a total of 46.5. The Golden Flashes haven’t scored more than 17 points against an FBS foes all year long. Their team total was 13 at most books as of Tuesday night.


-- Miami junior DE Demetrious Jackson had season-ending knee surgery on Monday. This is a big loss for the ‘Canes, who are poised to take on Notre Dame in South Florida on Saturday. Jackson had recorded 18 tackles, 3.5 sacks, four TFL’s, one interception with a four-yard return, one QB hurry and two passes broken up.


-- 5Dimes.eu has Alabama listed as a seven-point favorite over Georgia for a potential matchup at the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta during the first weekend of December.

 

[CNOTES]

College football notebook: No change at top of CFP rankings
November 7, 2017


The second College Football Playoffs rankings released Tuesday night looked very much like the first one released a week ago, although games this weekend could have impact going forward.


The top five teams this week, as chosen by the 13-member selection committee, were identical to the top five teams a week ago, with Georgia (9-0) holding the No. 1 spot, followed by No. 2 Alabama (9-0), No. 3 Notre Dame (8-1) and No. 4 Clemson (8-1). Those would be the four teams involved in the College Football Playoff if it were held today.


But these ranking don't matter at all at this point. The pairings for the four-team national championship playoff are not determined until the final CFP rankings come out on Dec. 3.


Holding the fifth spot again this week is Oklahoma (8-1). The newcomer to the top six is TCU (8-1), as Ohio State, which was No. 6 a week ago, slipped all the way to No. 13 following its 55-24 loss to Iowa.


Unbeaten Miami (8-0) moved up from No. 10 to No. 7 following its victory over Virginia Tech, while unbeaten Wisconsin (9-0) moved up just one spot to No. 8.


Washington (8-1) comes in at No. 9, and Auburn (7-2), the highest ranked two-loss team, is No. 10.


Auburn hosts Georgia this Saturday in game that will have an impact on the rankings. The other Saturday game with significant ranking ramifications is Notre Dame's game at Miami. Notre Dame's only loss was by one point against Georgia.


--Two players from Alabama's 2009 national championship team accepted cash in exchange for signing their names to memorabilia, Sports Illustrated reported.


Cliff Panezich, who sold signed sports memorabilia, told the magazine that he and associate Adam Bollinger paid Crimson Tide players Marquis Johnson and Terrence Cody $200 and $400, respectively, in December 2009.


Johnson denied that he was paid for his autograph and told Sports Illustrated that he did not know Panezich. Cody, through his agent, declined comment.


Other players mentioned in the report include cornerback Rod Woodson and tight end Colin Peek. Defensive back Ali Sharrief and quarterback Greg McElroy were also included in the story, although Panezich said those two declined compensation in order to comply with NCAA rules.


Panezich pleaded guilty in December 2016 to aggravated theft, identity fraud, telecommunications fraud, money laundering, engaging in a pattern of corrupt activity and three counts of forgery with a forfeiture specification. He was sentenced to six years in prison.


--Florida Gators wide receiver Kadarius Toney and defensive end Jachai Polite have been ruled out for Saturday's game at South Carolina, the team announced.


Toney and Polite are nursing shoulder injuries for the Gators (3-5, 3-4 SEC).


Toney has recorded 117 rushing yards and 115 receiving this season while Polite has registered 22 tackles and two sacks.


--Florida State has rescheduled its football game against Louisiana-Monroe for Saturday, Dec. 2 at noon, the university announced..


The contest was originally scheduled for Sept. 9 but was canceled due to Hurricane Irma.

 

[CNOTES]

CFB November's Best Bets & Opinions ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )


DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


11/07/2017 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
11/04/2017 26-28-2 48.15% -24.00
11/03/2017 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00
11/02/2017 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00
11/01/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00


Totals.............35 - 39.........47.29%.....-39.50




Best Bets:*****
Best Bets :........................ATS............TOTALS.... .............O/U................TOTALS


11/07/2017......................0 - 2............-11.00..................1 - 1..................-0.10
11/04/2017....................11 - 10..........+0.00...................5 - 2.................+14.00
11/03/2017......................2 - 1............+4.50..................0 - 2..................-11.00
11/02/2017......................2 - 0............+10.00................1 - 3..................-11.50
11/01/2017......................1 - 0............+5.00..................1 - 0 .................+5.00


Totals.............................16 - 13..........+8.50..................8 - 8...................-3.60

 

[CNOTES]

Wednesday’s six-pack


Odds to win the college football national title


— Alabama 2-3


— Georgia 5-1


— Clemson 7-1


— Notre Dame 10-1


— Ohio State 12-1


— Wisconsin 16-1


************************

Wednesday’s List of 13: Mid-week musings……


13) UCLA plays Georgia Tech in basketball Friday night in China. Tuesday, three freshman on UCLA’s team were busted for shoplifting from a Louis Vuitton store in Shanghai.


Was reading some stuff on the Interweb about this; the Chinese system is different from ours- these three nitwits could get 3-10 years in prison for shoplifting. There is no guarantee they’ll be back in the United States anytime soon- the Chinese justice system is slower, they don’t offer bail the way we do.


Donald Trump is going to be in China later this week; now there are worlds colliding, Trump and LaVar Ball in China at the same time, with Ball’s son in dire need of some legal aid.


Put that on your reality show.


12) The Andrew Luck situation in Indianapolis is becoming a huge mess, as Colts owner Jim Irsay is apparently questioning Luck in private conversations, saying Luck’s injury is “in his head.” Terrific.


Luck first hurt his shoulder in 2015; now he won’t play until next summer, at the earliest.


11) Suns traded Eric Bledsoe to Milwaukee, for Greg Monroe and protected 2018 1st/2nd-round picks. Monroe’s contract is up after this season, so that becomes valuable salary cap space.


10) Detroit Lions didn’t punt in Monday night’s win in Green Bay, the first time Detroit didn’t punt in a game since……..1971.


9) Interesting bit of knowledge from Aaron Rodgers Monday night; he says if you get a broken bone x-rayed a lot to check on progress of healing, the radiation actually slows down the bone’s healing, so Green Bay doctors will not be doing that with Rodgers’ clavicle this time around.


8) Green Bay lost RT Bryan Bulaga with a torn ACL in Monday’s loss, as their season crumbles even further……..if I coached the Packers, we’d go no-huddle with Brett Hundley. He looked a lot more comfortable playing at a faster pace.


7) Omri Casspi has played in 507 career NBA games, scoring 8.2 ppg thanks largely to a 36.8% mark from 3-point range; this is his 9th season, but he has never been on a team that made the playoffs. That changes soon; Casspi is on the Warriors this season.


6) Houston Texans signed QB Josh Johnson to be their #3 QB, and waived Matt McGloin.


5) Former Mets’ pitching coach Dan Warthen has moved on to the same job with the Texas Rangers.


4) Anaheim Ducks captain Ryan Getzlaf broke his cheekbone, will be out for a couple of months. He got hit in the face with a puck and broke his cheekbone- it hurts me just to type that.


3) Alabama had one basketball player declared ineligible this week; another one had his knee scoped. Going to take some time in November to get a handle on who is and isn’t eligible, with all the off-court nonsense going on.


One of the non-basketball people scheduled to be indicted in SneakerGate won’t be indicted this week, meaning he could be cooperating with authorities, which means more heads could roll, and more players could be declared ineligible.


2) Charlotte’s Malik Monk is 19 years old; he scored 8.8 ppg in 21.3 mpg in his first 10 NBA games. Tuesday night in New York, he scored 21 points in 27 minutes in the Hornets’ highly entertaining 118-113 loss to the Knicks. Monk looks like he will be an elite scorer.


1) RIP to the great big league pitcher Roy Halladay 40, who passed away Tuesday in a plane crash in the Gulf of Mexico. Halladay will likely get elected to the Hall of Fame in 2019. He was 203-105, 3.38 in 16 big league seasons, with the Blue Jays/Phillies.


Halladay and Don Larsen threw the only two postseason no-hitters.

 

[CNOTES]

Wednesday, November 8


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


KENT ST (2 - 7) at W MICHIGAN (5 - 4) - 11/8/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
W MICHIGAN is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
KENT ST is 1-0 against the spread versus W MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
W MICHIGAN is 1-0 straight up against KENT ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TOLEDO (8 - 1) at OHIO U (7 - 2) - 11/8/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO U is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO U is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO U is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
TOLEDO is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
TOLEDO is 81-55 ATS (+20.5 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
TOLEDO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
TOLEDO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TOLEDO is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO U is 1-0 against the spread versus TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
OHIO U is 1-0 straight up against TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


E MICHIGAN (3 - 6) at C MICHIGAN (5 - 4) - 11/8/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E MICHIGAN is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
E MICHIGAN is 2-0 against the spread versus C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
C MICHIGAN is 1-1 straight up against E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Wednesday, November 8


KENT STATE @ WESTERN MICHIGAN
Kent State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Western Michigan
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kent State's last 7 games
Western Michigan is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
Western Michigan is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games


TOLEDO @ OHIO
Toledo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Toledo is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Ohio
Ohio is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Ohio is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games


EASTERN MICHIGAN @ CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Eastern Michigan is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Eastern Michigan is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Central Michigan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Eastern Michigan
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Central Michigan's last 5 games when playing at home against Eastern Michigan


----------------------------------------


NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 11


Wednesday’s games
Western Michigan lost two of three games since its epic 71-68 OT win over Buffalo; four of their last six games went over total. Western ran ball for 315 yards in 35-28 home loss to Central Mich LW- they’re 1-3 as a home favorite this year. Kent State lost five of last six games; they allowed 563 yards in last two games, are 2-3 as road dogs. Favorites covered eight of last nine Kent-WMU games; Flashes lost three of last four visits to Kalamazoo, with all three losses by 23+ points- Kent covered last three series games. Under is 5-2 in last seven Kent games.


Ohio (+16) upset Toledo 31-26 LY, in teams’ first meeting since 2010; total yardage was 560-512. Rockets won last three visits to Athens, by 7-9-7 points. Toledo won its last five games, covering last four; they’re 3-1 on road, with all three wins by 13+ points- they lost 52-30 at unbeaten Miami, FL. Ohio won three in row, six of last seven games; they’re 4-1 at home, with a 26-23 loss to Central Michigan. Four of Bobcats’ last five games went over the total. MAC home underdogs are 3-9 vs spread this season.


Eastern Michigan snapped a 6-game skid LW with 56-14 win over Ball St; all is of those losses were by 7 or less points. Eagles are 1-4 on road, with win 16-13 at Rutgers. Central Michigan won three of its last four games- they scored 91 points in winning last two games. CMU won six of last eight games with Eastern Michigan, winning three of last four here, winning by 7-32-48 points. EMU outgained Central 538-383 in LY’s win. Over is 3-1 in last four EMU games, 2-5 in last seven Chippewa games.


-------------------------------------


NCAAF
Dunkel


Week 11


Wednesday, November 8


Kent State @ Western Michigan


Game 105-106
November 8, 2017 @ 7:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Kent State
56.414
Western Michigan
83.600
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Western Michigan
by 27
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Western Michigan
by 21
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Western Michigan
(-21); Over


Toledo @ Ohio


Game 107-108
November 8, 2017 @ 7:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Toledo
91.467
Ohio
83.599
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toledo
by 8
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toledo
by 3 1/2
64 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toledo
(-3 1/2); Over


Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan


Game 109-110
November 8, 2017 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Eastern Michigan
82.535
Central Michigan
82.120
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Central Michigan
Even
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Eastern Michigan
by 2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Central Michigan
(+2); Over

 

[CNOTES]

Wednesday's MAC Action
November 7, 2017


There are three games on tap in the MAC on Wednesday night. That means college football bettors have six options with sides and totals. Let’s get you ready for the action with in-depth previews of two games and some notes on the other.


**Toledo at Ohio**


-- In what might be a preview of the MAC Championship Game, Ohio (7-2 straight up, 7-2 against the spread) will play host to Toledo in a battle between division leaders. The Bobcats were in a first-place tie with Akron (pending the Zips’ Tuesday night result at Miami (OH) in the East with identical 4-1 league records. Meanwhile, Toledo holds a one-half game lead over Northern Illinois in the West. The Rockets are 5-0 in conference play, while the Huskies are 4-1.


-- As of Tuesday night, most betting shops had Toledo (8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) listed as a four-point road ‘chalk’ with a total of 65. The Bobcats were +155 on the money line (risk $100 to win $155).


-- Toledo took its only loss at Miami by a 52-30 count as a 13.5-point road underdog. However, this was a misleading final, as the Rockets led 16-10 at halftime and trailed by only eight midway through the fourth quarter.


-- Jason Candle’s team is 3-0 both SU and ATS as a road favorite this season. The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in five such spots since Candle took over for current Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell going into the 2016 campaign.


-- Toledo has ripped off five consecutive wins since the loss at Miami. The Rockets have covered the number in four straight, winning each of those games by double-digit margins. They’re off last week’s 27-17 win over No. Illinois last Thursday as 7.5-point home favorites. Senior quarterback Logan Woodside completed 23-of-31 passes for 361 yards, while senior RB Terry Swanson rushed for 116 yards and three TDs on 29 carries. Sophomore WR Diontae Jonson had 10 receptions for 166 yards, while sophomore TE Jordan Fisher brought down six catches for 102 yards.


-- Woodside, a first-team All-MAC selection in 2016 when he threw for 4,129 yards with a stellar 45/9 TD-INT, hasn’t missed a beat despite losing his favorite target Cody Thompson to a season-ending injury. Thompson, a senior WR who was also a first-team All-MAC pick in ’16, went down in early October. He had 28 catches for 537 yards and four TDs in the team’s first four games (and change; he was injured early in a 20-15 home win over Eastern Michigan). Woodside has connected on 64.3 percent of his throws for 2,656 yards with a 19/2 TD-INT ratio.


-- Diontae Jonson has a team-best 46 receptions for 859 yards and eight TDs. Jon’Vea Johnson, a second-team All-MAC selection last season, has 24 grabs for 354 yards and three TDs.


-- Toledo is three-deep in the backfield. Swanson gets the bulk of the touches and he’s rushed for 844 yards and 11 TDs, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Shakif Seymour has run for 468 yards and six TDs with a 6.6 YPC average, while Art Thompkins has rushed for 466 yards and one TD with a 5.5 YPC average.


-- Toledo is sixth in the nation in total offense, averaging 519.7 yards per game. The Rockets are ranked 19th in the country in passing offense, 23rd in rushing and 14th in scoring with a 39.0 points-per-game average.


-- Since losing 26-23 to Central Michigan as a 10.5-point home favorite on Oct. 7, Frank Solich’s 13th team at Ohio has won three consecutive games both SU and ATS. Solich’s squad has won those three games by margins of 17 points or more, including last Tuesday’s 45-28 win over Miami (OH.) as a 6.5-point home favorite. The 73 combined points soared above the 54-point total to provide the Bobcats with their third straight ‘over.’ Nathan Rourke completed 21-of-33 passes for 294 yards and three TDs without an interception. Rourke absolutely dominated the game, rushing for 54 yards and three TDs on 10 attempts as well. RB A.J. Ouellette added 80 rushing yards on 20 carries, while senior WR Brendan Cope had five catches for 80 yards and one TD. Papi White contributed five receptions for 80 yards and one TD.


-- Ohio’s only other loss of the year came in Week 2 when it dropped a 44-21 decision at Purdue. The Bobcats hosted Kansas in non-conference play, defeating the Jayhawks 42-20 as 7.5-point home ‘chalk.’


-- Rourke has completed 56.7 percent of his passes for 1,517 yards with a 13/3 TD-INT ratio. He has also run for 548 yards and 16 TDs, averaging 6.2 YPC. Ouellette has run for a team-best 832 yards and six TDs with a 5.9 YPC average. Dorian Brown has added 458 rushing yards, four TDs on the ground and a 5.7 YPC average.


-- Cope has been Rouke’s favorite target, making 31 catches for 436 yards and three TDs. Andrew Meyer has 25 receptions for 361 yards and two TDs, while White has 17 grabs for 312 yards and two TDs.


-- During Solich’s tenure, Ohio has compiled an 11-5 spread record in 16 games as a home underdog.


-- Toledo saw its 12-game winning streak over Ohio snapped in a 31-26 loss as a 15-point home favorite in last season’s meeting. Brown was the catalyst for the winners, rushing for 212 yards and one TD on 29 carries. White had three catches for 64 yards and one TD, in addition to five rushing attempts for 54 yards. In the losing effort, Woodside threw for 438 yards and three TDs with one interception. Swanson ran for 58 yards on 10 carries, while J-Johnson had six receptions for 156 yards and two TDs.


-- The ‘over’ is 7-2 overall for the Bobcats, 4-1 in their home outings. They’ve watched their games net combined scores of 66.9 PPG.


-- The ‘over’ is 5-4 overall for the Rockets, 2-2 in their four road assignments. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 63.4 PPG.


-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.


**Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan**


-- As of Tuesday night, most spots had Eastern Michigan (3-6 SU, 7-2 ATS) installed as a two-point road favorite. The Chippewas were +105 to win outright.


-- Eastern Michigan brought its brutal six-game losing streak to an end with last week’s 56-14 bludgeoning of Ball St. as a 25-point home favorite. Presuming you’d like me to define a ‘brutal’ six-game losing streak, here goes: EMU lost three of the six games in overtime, including back-to-back OT setbacks before the win over the Cardinals. The six defeats came by 23 combined points and the OT home loss to Ohio was the widest margin (seven; 27-20).


-- EMU started the season 2-0 both SU and ATS with a home win vs. Charlotte (24-7) and a 16-13 triumph at Rutgers. In the victory over Ball State, senior QB Brogan Roback connected on 15-of-21 passes for 263 yards and three TDs without an interception. Ian Eriksen ran 21 times for 114 yards and one TD, while Sergio Bailey contributed two catches for 110 yards and one TD.


-- For the season, Roback has completed 60.8 percent of his passes for 2,347 yards with a 14/8 TD-INT ratio. Bailey is his favorite target, hauling in 46 receptions for 763 yards and six TDs. Meanwhile, Antoine Porter has 38 catches for 464 yards and four TDs, while John Niupalau has 24 grabs for 328 yards and three TDs.


-- Eriksen, EMU’s junior RB, has produced a team-high 535 yards and five TDs with a 4.4 YPC average.


-- Eastern Michigan has lost four of its five games on the road, but it has hooked up its backers with an incredible 5-0 spread record.


-- This is only the second time Eastern Michigan has been a road favorite during Chris Creighton’s four-year tenure. The Eagles took the cash in the lone prior such situation by beating Charlotte 37-19 last year as three-point road ‘chalk.’


-- Central Michigan (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) has won three of its last four games both SU and ATS since dropping three consecutive games. John Bonamego’s squad won 35-28 at Western Michigan last week as a 3.5-point road underdog. The Chippewas rallied from a 28-14 deficit with less than 10 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Shane Morris threw both of his TD passes in the final stanza, including a 77-yard scoring strike to Corey Willis with 2:37 left. Jonathan Ward rushed for 130 yards and one TD on 18 carries. Morris threw for 243 yards without a pick and he also had a pair of scoring runs. Willis caught five balls for 148 yards and one TD, while Ward added four receptions for 81 yards.


-- For the season, Morris has completed 55.2 percent of his passes for 2,209 yards with an 18/11 TD-INT ratio. He’s also run for 136 yards and three scores. Ward has run for 590 yards and five TDs with a 5.2 YPC average. Willis, a second-team All-MAC selection last season, has 28 receptions for 441 yards and five TDs. He missed four games with an injury, though. Mark Chapman has a team-best 44 catches for 593 yards and three TDs, while Ward has 38 grabs for 326 yards and one TD.


-- CMU has limped to a 1-2 SU record and a 0-3 ATS mark at home. The Chippewas are 2-3 ATS as home ‘dogs on Bonamego’s watch, failing to cover in their lone such spot this year in a 30-10 loss to Toledo.


-- CMU has won four in a row over EMU until losing 26-21 last year. The Eagles prevailed thanks to Roback’s 24-yard scoring strike to Bailey with 21 ticks remaining.


-- The ‘under’ is 6-3 overall for CMU, 3-0 in its home contests. The Chippewas have seen their games produce average combined scores of 53.9 PPG.


-- The ‘under’ is 6-3 overall for EMU, 3-2 in its five road assignments. Their games have netted average combined scores of 45.0 PPG.


-- ESPNU will have the broadcast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.


**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**


-- Western Michigan will host Kent State in a third #MACtion game on Wednesday night. This 7:00 p.m. Eastern kick will be on the CBS Sports College Network. As of Tuesday night, most spots had the Broncos installed as 21.5-point favorites with a total of 46.5. The Golden Flashes haven’t scored more than 17 points against an FBS foes all year long. Their team total was 13 at most books as of Tuesday night.


-- Miami junior DE Demetrious Jackson had season-ending knee surgery on Monday. This is a big loss for the ‘Canes, who are poised to take on Notre Dame in South Florida on Saturday. Jackson had recorded 18 tackles, 3.5 sacks, four TFL’s, one interception with a four-yard return, one QB hurry and two passes broken up.


-- 5Dimes.eu has Alabama listed as a seven-point favorite over Georgia for a potential matchup at the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta during the first weekend of December.

 

[CNOTES]

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 8
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


TOL at OHIO 07:00 PM
OHIO +3.5
O 64.5 *****


KENT at WMU 07:00 PM
KENT +21.5 *****
U 48.5 *****


EMU at CMU 08:00 PM
EMU -2.0
U 48.0 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Western Michigan crushes Kent, 48-20
November 8, 2017


KALAMAZOO, Mich. (AP) Darius Phillips had one of Western Michigan's three defensive touchdowns to extend his FBC record, and Jarvion Franklin ran for 191 yards and a touchdown in the Broncos' 48-20 victory over Kent State on Wednesday night.


Phillips made it 31-14 late in the first half with a 43-yard interception return, his FBC-record 12th touchdown on runbacks. He has scored on five kickoff returns, five interceptions, a punt return and a fumble return. Allen Rossum (Notre Dame, 1994-97) and Adoree' Jackson (USC, 2014-16) are second with nine each.


Phillips had a 100-yard kickoff return called back in the first quarter.


Four rushers combined for 292 yards for Western Michigan (6-4, 4-2 Mid-American Conference), which is bowl eligible for a fourth straight season.


WMU went on a 12-play, 92-yard scoring drive to open the game. On Kent State's first possession, Robert Spillane returned an interception 35 yards for a 14-point lead. Kent State punted on its next possession, but Erik Simpson forced a fumble and recovered it, and the Golden Flashes got on the board with Justin Rankin's 21-yard touchdown run on a reverse.


Franklin gave Western Michigan a 21-14 lead on a career-long, 72-yard run up the middle. He had 149 yards rushing in the first quarter.


Rankin rushed for 67 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries for Kent State (2-8, 1-5). He took a direct snap and stretched out at the goal line for a 3-yard touchdown to tie it at 14.


****************************


Ohio runs all over Toledo, 38-10
November 8, 2017


ATHENS, Ohio (AP) Dorian Brown had 142 yards rushing and two touchdowns, Ohio quarterback Nathan Rourke added 115 yards on the ground and a score, and the Bobcats handed Toledo its first conference loss, 38-10 on Wednesday night.


On the first possession of the second half, Ohio went 73 yards and Rourke ran it in from the 8 for a 17-7 lead. Brown made it 24-7 on a 62-yard, untouched touchdown run and the Bobcats' third straight scoring drive was capped by Brendan Cope's 12-yard grab in the middle of the end zone.


Rourke was 7-of-15 passing for 139 yards and one touchdown and one interception for Ohio (8-2, 5-1, Mid-American Conference), which rushed for 393 yards.


In the first half, A.J. Ouellette gave Ohio a 7-0 lead late on a 6-yard run. Javon Hagan returned a fumble 34 yards and Ohio's Louie Zervos kicked a 44-yard field goal for a 10-7 lead with 11 seconds left before halftime.


Logan Woodside completed 24 of 35 passes for 263 yards and a touchdown for Toledo (8-2, 5-1), which lost for the first time since a 52-30 defeat at then-No. 14 Miami on Sept. 23. Four plays after Toledo's Toled Ja'Wuan Woodley recovered a fumble, Diontae Johnson caught a 34-yard touchdown pass to tie it at 7.


*****************************


Central Michigan has 5 interceptions, tops EMU 42-30
November 8, 2017


MOUNT PLEASANT, Mich. (AP) Shane Morris threw three touchdown passes in the first half, Sean Bunting had two of Central Michigan's five interceptions, and the Chippewas held off Eastern Michigan 42-30 on Wednesday night.


Central Michigan was ahead 28-10 late in the second quarter, but the Chippewas' only first down of the second half came with 6:27 remaining in the game.


EMU scored on back-to-back drives in the fourth to pull to 35-30. The Eagles punted on their next two possessions, but got the ball back at their 26 with 1:03 left. Two plays later, Amari Coleman sealed it with his eighth career interception, returning it for a 32-yard TD.


Jonathan Ward rushed for 159 yards and two touchdowns, including a career-long 79-yarder, for Central Michigan (6-4, 4-2 Mid-American Conference), which is bowl eligible for the 10th time in 12 years. Morris was 9-of-12 passing for 141 yards before halftime and finished with 155 yards on 11 completions.


Tyler Conklin made a 4-yard catch to set a CMU record for tight ends with 11 TDs, topping David Blackburn (2008-11). Corey Willis had back-to-back touchdown catches, of 12 and 4 yards, to make it 28-10. Willis has six touchdowns this season - all in the last three games.


Brogan Roback was 23 of 39 for 204 yards with two touchdowns and five interceptions for Eastern Michigan (3-7, 1-5).


Roback's second fourth-quarter touchdown pass set the program record with 54 passing TDs, topping former Pittsburgh Steeler Charlie Batch. Roback found Mathew Sexton over the middle from 18 yards out to pull to 35-30 and set the mark with 7:24 remaining.

 

[CNOTES]

Inside the Stats - Week 11
November 8, 2017


Stats don’t lie. People who interpret them do.


Let’s take a look at how teams are performing this season ‘Inside The Stats’.


LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS


Here are the teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game.


This week includes:


College Football: Florida State, Kansas State


NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers, Washington Redskins


PUTTIN’ ON THE STATS PLAY LIST


Listed below are the qualifying teams to date with their respective ITS win-loss records that have either won or lost all - or all but one – of their games in the stats. Play accordingly as long as these teams remain on this list from now thru the end of the season.


Play On ITS teams: Alabama 8-1, Central Florida 8-0, Georgia 9-0, LSU 8-1, Michigan 8-1, Michigan State 8-1, Oklahoma 9-0, Oklahoma State 8-1, South Florida 9-0, Toledo 8-1, Washington 8-1, Washington State 9-1 and Wisconsin 9-0.


Play Against ITS teams: Connecticut 0-8-1, East Carolina 1-7-1, Kent State 1-8, Kentucky 1-8, Rutgers 1-8, and UTEP 1-8.


WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY


From this week’s MIDWEEK ALERT it’s apparent that certain teams are in current form that is diametrically opposite to that of their overall season-to-date team stats.


The net differential of their overall team stats, with a net difference of 100 YPG or more since Game Five, as opposed to the overall season-to-date team stats, are contained below. You would be wise to observe these opposite-form comparison teams.


Positive Game Five Out Net Stats: Arkansas State +100, Temple +128


Negative Game Five Out Net Stats: Clemson -116, Duke -140, Georgia Tech -145, Kansas State -115, Maryland -100, Navy -101, Oregon -104, Rutgers -103

LEAKING OIL


Each week on the football card each we isolate favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.


We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s Pennzoil favorites and their current ITS losing skein record.


College Football: Duke 0-5, Kansas State 0-6, Navy 0-4, Texas A&M 0-4, Tulane 0-4


NFL: New York Giants 0-5, New York Jets 0-3


SEASON-HIGH; SEASON-LOW


One of the gauges of how a team can be expected to perform on the field is how they go toe-to-toe with other teams throughout the course of a season.


When a team holds another to season-low yardage it’s an indicator that their defense is legit. Conversely, when they allow foes season-high yards their defense is waning and trouble is generally looming.


With that thought in mind, below is a list of teams that have held four or more FBS opponents to either season-low marks, or season-high yards this campaign, along with the amount of times they have accomplished the feat this season to date:


Season-lows: Alabama 5, Boston College 4, Clemson 5, Michigan 6, Michigan State 5, Ohio State 5, TCU 6, Texas 4, Virginia Tech 4, Washington 5, Washington State 5.


Season-highs: Bowling Green 4, Tulsa 4, UL Lafayette 4, UL Monroe 5.


Keep in mind that season-lows are season-lows, and season-highs are season-highs. It doesn’t matter against whom they were recorded.


STAT OF THE WEEK


The success of the Jacksonville Jaguars this season can be largely attributed to its top ranked rush offense. The real strength of the team, though, is a defense that has surrendered season-low yards in five games, including sub 200-yard efforts on three occasions, more than any other team in the league.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday’s six-pack


NFL trends with Week 10 approaching:


— Minnesota is 1-6 vs spread in last seven post-bye games.


— Cleveland is 4-14 vs spread in its last 18 games.


— 49ers are 2-16 vs spread in last 18 non-divisional games.


— Colts are 12-3 vs spread in last 15 games as a home dog.


— Saints covered eight of their last eleven games.


— Arizona is 5-14 vs spread in its last 19 games.


***********************


Thursday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……


13) Funny/not funny story of the day:


A Qatar Airways pilot was forced to make an emergency landing after a passenger found out her husband was cheating on her, leading to a violent reaction in midair; the woman reportedly used her sleeping husband’s finger to unlock his phone and discovered his cheating ways.


Officials say she started fighting with her husband, and also fought with crew members who tried to calm her down.


The flight was forced to land in India on the way to Bali; the woman and her family members were escorted off the plane there.


Morals of this story:
a) Don’t cheat on your spouse.
b) Don’t leave your cellphone within reach of your spouse, especially if you’re cheating.


12) Here is a breakdown of where major league ballplayers come from; players used here are from 2017 Opening Day rosters:
4-year colleges: 43.8%
International: 26.5%
High school: 23.9%
2-year colleges: 5.8%


11) Coming into this year, in five NBA seasons, Detroit’s Andre Drummond was 683-1,793 (38.1%) on the foul line— really bad.


So far this year, Drummond is 30-47 (63.8%) on the charity stripe. I applaud his hard work in the offseason to strengthen his game, but after I added this, he went 0-7 on the line Wednesday against the Pacers, so it is an ongoing struggle.


10) Sounds like Auburn basketball coach Bruce Pearl is on the way out; one of his assistants (Chuck Person) just got fired because of SneakerGate, and Pearl isn’t cooperating with the school’s internal investigation. That not good.


9) I’m wondering how much Dak Prescott’s success in the NFL helps Mississippi State when they recruit young quarterbacks?


8) DeShaun Watson’s injury figures to help the Cleveland Browns, since they have the Texans’ first-round draft pick in April. Now all Cleveland needs is someone in charge who has a clue on how to draft productive players.


7) Vikings activated QB Teddy Bridgewater and put Sam Bradford on IR; both those guys’ contracts are up after the season, so Minnesota has some decisions to make, especially since they’re 6-2 and Case Keenum has been playing well for them.


6) Our country does a census every ten years; so, you know, everyone knows how many people live here. Apparently the 2020 census will cost $15.6B, which seems a little excessive, but that is just me.


5) Royals manager Ned Yost, 63, broke his pelvis recently when he fell while trying to fix a tree stand on his property in Georgia.


4) Joe Buck has a good interview show called Undeniable, on the Audience Network (channel 500 on DirecTV); he has had an interesting cross-section of guests, but why in God’s name would he have Robert M Knight on as a guest? Knight is a bully, a creep; he was a really good coach at one time, but that time has passed. Now he adds nothing but negative energy.


3) Minnesota’s Taj Gibson is the first NBA player EVER to wear number 67; turns out he went to PS 67 in Brooklyn. Used to be in high school, no digits above 5 could be on a uniform, to make it easier for refs to signal fouls to the scorer’s table.


2) How many college basketball coaches spent time at Wednesday preaching to their teams about how they represent their families, their friends, their school whenever they go on a road trip?


Three UCLA kids are stuck in China now after they got caught shoplifting from a Louis Vuitton store. There is no “easy out” for athletes there— this is a foreign country that isn’t real fond of America- they have their own laws, and they’re tougher laws than we have here.


1) Never thought I’d spend an hour in the middle of the night reading up on Chinese law, but that was me at 3am Tuesday night, trying to learn more about the situation the UCLA kids are in. I’m pretty sure Bill Walton is on the mike for UCLA-Georgia Tech game Friday night from China; he is pretty much unfiltered all the time, and he is obviously a UCLA alum, so this broadcast could be interesting, to say the least.

 

[CNOTES]

CFB November's Best Bets & Opinions ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )


DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


11/08/2017 1-5-0 16.67% -22.50
11/07/2017 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
11/04/2017 26-28-2 48.15% -24.00
11/03/2017 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00
11/02/2017 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00
11/01/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00


Totals.............36 - 44.........45.00%.....-62.00




Best Bets:*****
Best Bets :........................ATS............TOTALS.... .............O/U................TOTALS


11/08/2017......................0 - 1............-5.50...................0 - 3..................-16.50
11/07/2017......................0 - 2............-11.00..................1 - 1..................-0.10
11/04/2017....................11 - 10..........+0.00...................5 - 2.................+14.00
11/03/2017......................2 - 1............+4.50..................0 - 2..................-11.00
11/02/2017......................2 - 0............+10.00................1 - 3..................-11.50
11/01/2017......................1 - 0............+5.00..................1 - 0 .................+5.00


Totals.............................16 - 14..........+3.00..................8 - 11...................-20.10

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday, November 9


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BALL ST (2 - 7) at N ILLINOIS (6 - 3) - 11/9/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALL ST is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
N ILLINOIS is 55-34 ATS (+17.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
N ILLINOIS is 2-0 against the spread versus BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
N ILLINOIS is 2-0 straight up against BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


GA SOUTHERN (0 - 8) at APPALACHIAN ST (5 - 4) - 11/9/2017, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GA SOUTHERN is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GA SOUTHERN is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
APPALACHIAN ST is 2-0 against the spread versus GA SOUTHERN over the last 3 seasons
APPALACHIAN ST is 2-0 straight up against GA SOUTHERN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


N CAROLINA (1 - 8) at PITTSBURGH (4 - 5) - 11/9/2017, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N CAROLINA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-1 against the spread versus N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
N CAROLINA is 2-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Thursday, November 9


BALL STATE @ NORTHERN ILLINOIS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ball State's last 6 games
Ball State is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Northern Illinois is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Ball State
Northern Illinois is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Ball State


NORTH CAROLINA @ PITTSBURGH
North Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of North Carolina's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home


GEORGIA SOUTHERN @ APPALACHIAN STATE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Georgia Southern's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Georgia Southern's last 6 games
Appalachian State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Appalachian State is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games


-------------------------------------------


Thursday’s games


Northern Illinois won its last eight games with Ball State, covering four of last five. Cardinals lost last four visits to DeKalb, losing 59-41/48-27 in last two trips here. NIU had 4-game win streak snapped by Toledo LW; Huskies are 3-1 at home, with MAC wins by 21-3 points- they lost 23-20 at home to Boston College. NIU is 0-2 vs spread as a home favorite. Ball State lost its last six games (0-5-1 vs spread)- they gave up 55+ points in four of last five games, with 28 points the closest of those five losses.


Georgia Southern is 0-8 but they’ve got a good, mobile freshman QB and are still competing; they’re 2-2 vs spread as a road underdog, covering at Auburn/Troy. Eagles lost 34-10/31-13 to Appalachian State the last two years. Favorites are 2-1 vs spread in this series. App State is 5-4, needs one more win to be bowl eligible; Mountaineers are 3-1 at home, 1-1 as a home favorite- their only home loss was 20-19 to Wake Forest. Five of last six Ga Southern games went over total; over is 3-1-1 in last five App State games.


North Carolina lost its last six games, is having a dreadful 1-8 season; they’re 0-2 as road underdogs, getting outscored 92-14 at Ga Tech/Virginia- they did win on road at Old Dominion. Pittsburgh is 4-5, needs two wins to get to a bowl; Panthers beat Duke/Virginia last two weeks, allowing 17-14 points. Pitt lost six of last seven games with UNC, losing last four in row, all by 7 or less points. Tar Heels won last three visits here, by 7-7-3 points. Five of last six UNC games stayed under the total; under is 5-0-1 in last six Panther games.


-----------------------------------


NCAAF
Dunkel


Week 11


Thursday, November 9



Ball State @ Northern Illinois


Game 113-114
November 9, 2017 @ 7:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Ball State
57.762
Northern Illinois
82.757
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Northern Illinois
by 25
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Northern Illinois
by 32
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Ball State
(+32); Under


Georgia Southern @ Appalachian St


Game 115-116
November 9, 2017 @ 7:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Georgia Southern
60.974
Appalachian St
76.414
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Appalachian St
by 15 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Appalachian St
by 18 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia Southern
(+18 1/2); Under


North Carolina @ Pittsburgh


Game 117-118
November 9, 2017 @ 7:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
North Carolina
85.422
Pittsburgh
92.325
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 7
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 9 1/2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
North Carolina
(+9 1/2); Under

 

[CNOTES]

UNC at Pittsburgh
November 7, 2017


While Thursday’s ACC matchup isn’t going to make a dent on the national scene or even the ACC standings, North Carolina and Pittsburgh have played four consecutive tight games as ACC foes including one of the better games of the season last year.


Two teams in disappointing seasons look for a big late season win in Thursday’s national TV game to start the college football weekend.


Matchup: North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers
Venue: At Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Time/TV: Thursday, Nov. 9, 7:30 PM ET ESPN
Line: Pittsburgh -9, Over/Under 52½
Last Meeting: 2016, at North Carolina (-7) 37, Pittsburgh 36


Since Pittsburgh joined the ACC in 2013 the matchup with North Carolina has been an entertaining series with four single-score results and an average of more than 63 points scored per game. The past two seasons this Coastal matchup has carried some weight with both teams in the division race as these teams combined to go 24-9 in ACC games in 2015 and 2016, with North Carolina appearing in the ACC championship in the 2015 season. North Carolina sits at 0-6 in ACC play this season while Pittsburgh is just 2-3 as it has been step-back season for both programs.


A North Carolina program that was routinely stocked with NFL talent but seemed to plateau at 7 or 8 wins in the best years in the 2000s finally had a breakthrough season in 2015, going 11-1 in the regular season and giving Clemson a great game in the ACC championship. The Tar Heels fell back to a modestly successful 8-5 campaign last season and in Larry Fedora’s sixth season in Chapel Hill very little has gone right.


The Tar Heels had to replace the #2 pick in the NFL draft at quarterback and it has been a challenge to replace Mitch Trubisky. Former LSU quarterback Brandon Harris was expected to lead the team but after early season struggles, freshman Chazz Surratt has been the team’s main quarterback. Sophomore Nathan Elliott took the bulk of the snaps two weeks ago in the narrow homecoming loss to Miami after Surratt was injured however as it isn’t clear what will happen under center this week.

The Tar Heels were a great rushing team two years ago posting 6.0 yards per rush and still a decent ground team last season. This year’s team has gained just 3.8 yards per carry as the poor quarterback play has deteriorated the potential of the entire offense. Sophomore Jordon Brown leads the team in carries and yards but freshman Michael Carter has been a big play threat with seven touchdowns on 6.0 yards per carry.


Ryan Switzer had 96 catches for the Tar Heels last season as Trubisky’s favorite target but this year’s team lacks a receiver with more than 20 catches. Brown has 24 catches out of the backfield but the young receiving corps has struggled with the lack of consistency at quarterback and the unit has been beset with several injuries including losing four scholarship receivers to season-ending injuries.


North Carolina is surrendering 33.4 points per game on 447 yards per game ranking 104th nationally in scoring defense and 111th in total defense. The Tar Heels have surrendered 205 yards per game rushing this season on 4.6 yards per carry. The secondary has lost two starters to injury as well as it has been a tough-luck season for the North Carolina roster.


North Carolina has also taken on one of the nation’s most difficult schedules playing non-conference games with California and Notre Dame to add to the 1-8 record on the season. From the Atlantic the Tar Heels played Louisville in September and will face NC State in the season finale for a difficult crossover pull.


While North Carolina doesn’t have a bowl game to play for the Tar Heels have an opportunity on a national stage this week and certainly this is a team that can perform at a higher level than the 1-8 record indicates. Five losses have been decided by 12 or fewer points and the 24-19 late October loss to undefeated Miami shows the potential of this group. Despite playing most of the game with an inexperienced third-string quarterback, North Carolina out-gained Miami 428-415 and might have won if not for four turnovers.


Pittsburgh started the season needing overtime to defeat FCS Youngstown State and most of the first half of the season was a struggle with the Panthers going 2-5 in the first seven games. Pittsburgh played Penn State and Oklahoma State in non-conference action for a very difficult start to the season but with wins in the final two games of October the Panthers are 4-5 and still have bowl aspirations.


This looks like a must-win game in the postseason goal as the Panthers will close the regular season with games against the top two ACC Coastal squads, at Virginia Tech next week and closing the season lurking as a potential spoiler hosting undefeated Miami.


The Panthers also had to replace a NFL quarterback with Nathan Peterman drafted by the Bills in the fifth round. Peterman actually led the ACC in quarterback rating last season ahead of Trubiksy and Deshaun Watson and he was a key to the success the Panthers have had in Pat Narduzzi’s first two seasons at Pittsburgh with matching 8-5 campaigns and winning ACC seasons.


Pittsburgh thought they had a quick-fix replacement at quarterback with USC transfer Max Browne. Once the most sought after high school quarterback in the nation, Browne struggled as the USC starter early last season facing great expectations. With Sam Darnold clearly establishing himself he looked for another opportunity and wound up at Pittsburgh. His senior season hasn’t worked out as planned who began to split time with sophomore Ben DiNucci after the 1-2 start to the season and then Browne suffered a season ending injury in early October.


DiNucci’s numbers haven’t been stronger than Browne’s even through a lighter schedule but the Panthers are playing better ball in recent weeks. Pittsburgh also lost top running back James Conner to the NFL and the rushing attack took awhile to develop this season. Moving junior Darrin Hall into a more prominent role has paid dividends as he rushed for 365 yards in the wins over Duke and Virginia with four touchdowns.


Pittsburgh’s defensive numbers are only slightly better than the numbers for North Carolina though allowing 92 points in the losses to Penn State and Oklahoma State skew the numbers a bit. In ACC play Pittsburgh has allowed 25.6 points per game compared to 35.0 points per game allowed by North Carolina. Pittsburgh’s run defense was a strength last season allowing only 3.6 yards per rush despite deficiencies against the pass but this year the Panthers have shown improvement against the pass but are allowing 4.5 yards per rush.


Both teams entered this season appearing to head towards rebuilding seasons and certainly Pittsburgh has had a better run towards that aim heading into the final three weeks. A win this week and an upset in one of the final two games can get the Panthers into a bowl game for a 10th consecutive season. For North Carolina this is an opportunity to avoid a winless ACC season with a tough finale at NC State as the only other opportunity. For two teams caught in the middle of the ACC pecking order in now a wide swath of recruiting territory in a 14-team conference, any positive national TV exposure can help the cause.


Last Season: These teams met in late September in Chapel Hill for an early ACC opener. Both teams were 2-1 with North Carolina losing to Georgia but Beating Illinois and James Madison. Pittsburgh had a marquee win over Penn State but had lost in a shootout with Oklahoma State the previous week. A game that ended with 73 points actually started with a safety and a 50-yard field goal as Pittsburgh led 5-0 at the end of the first quarter. Early in the second half Pittsburgh still had a slight advantage with a 26-16 lead and the Panthers appeared on their way to victory after a fourth quarter field goal made the score 36-23 and the Pittsburgh defense forced a 3-and-out. Pittsburgh had to punt back to the Tar Heels halfway through the final frame and a marginal punt with a strong return shifted momentum back to the Tar Heels. Trubisky converted a big 4th down play with about six minutes remaining and eventually put the Tar Heels in the end zone to close to within six. Conner and Peterman weren’t able to pick up a first down and Trubisky led one of the drives of the season needing 17 plays and three 4th down conversions to eventually score with two seconds remaining for a one-point win.

Historical Trends:


-- North Carolina has won all four meetings as ACC Coastal foes with last season’s one-point win the only missed cover.


-- Since 1982 North Carolina is 6-2 S/U and ATS in this series though Pittsburgh won the only postseason meeting with a 2009 Meineke Car Care Bowl win.


-- North Carolina is 11-7 S/U and ATS in road games since 2014 and riding a 15-11-1 ATS run when dogged by 7 or more points going back to 2006.


-- Pittsburgh is just 5-14-2 ATS as a home favorite since 2013, though splitting the two instances this season.


-- Since 2013 Pittsburgh is also just 4-11-1 ATS as a favorite of 7 or more points though losing S/U just twice in that span.

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 9
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


BALL at NIU 07:00 PM
BALL +29.5 *****
U 51.0


UNC at PITT 07:30 PM
PITT -8.5 *****
O 52.0


GASO at APP 07:30 PM
APP -18.0 *****
U 52.0 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Childers' 4 TD passes help N. Illinois beat Ball St., 63-17
November 9, 2017


DEKALB, Ill. (AP) Marcus Childers threw a career-high four touchdown passes and Jackson Abresch scored twice on blocked punts to help Northern Illinois beat Ball State 63-17 on Thursday night.


Sutton Smith, who came in leading the FBS with 20 tackles for losses this season, had two Thursday to set the Northern Illinois single-season record. The Huskies (7-3, 5-1 Mid-American Conference) finished with a school-record 18 TFLs (the most in an FBS game this season), including a season-high-tying seven sacks.


Childers threw touchdown passes to Shane Wimann and Jordan Huff before Trayshon Foster blocked a punt which Jackson Abresch returned 13 yards for a score to make it 21-7 at the end of the first quarter. Jauan Wesley blocked another Ball State (2-8, 0-6) punt, from inside its own end zone, and Abresch covered it to cap the scoring with 4:18 to play. The Huskies have blocked four punts in their last three games.


Drew Plitt, Ball State's fourth-string quarterback, made his second career start and completed 9 of 14 passes for 89 yards and a score before being replaced by Jack Milas at halftime.


Northern Illinois has won nine in a row against the Cardinals.


********************


Lamb, Appalachian State beat Georgia Southern 27-6
November 9, 2017


BOONE, N.C. (AP) Taylor Lamb threw two touchdown passes and Jalin Moore had 28 carries for 130 yards to help Appalachian State beat Georgia Southern 27-6 on Thursday night.


Lamb was 7-of-13 passing for 161 yards and added 62 yards rushing on five carries for Appalachian State (6-4, 5-1 Sun Belt Conference).


Collin Reed's 23-yard touchdown reception gave the Mountaineers their first lead midway through the second quarter and freshman Chandler Staton hit a career-long 53-yard field goal as time in the first half expired to make it 10-3.


On Appalachian State's first play from scrimmage in the second half, Lamb hit Thomas Hennigan for a 51-yard gain to set up a 28-yard field goal by Staton. Georgia Southern (0-9, 0-5) answered with an 11-play, 36-yard drive capped by Tyler Bass' 44-yard field goal to make it 13-6 late in the third quarter.


On Appalachian State's next possession, defensive end Caleb Fuller, on fourth-and-1 from midfield, ran 23 yards on a fake punt and, three plays later, Lamb hit Ike Lewis for a 20-yard touchdown. The Eagles went three-and-out on their ensuing drive and, after Lamb connected with Lewis for a 30-yard gain on fourth-and-6, Daetrich Harrington's 3-yard scoring run capped the scoring with 9:40 to go.


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Ratliff-Williams stars as North Carolina trips up Pitt 34-31
November 9, 2017


PITTSBURGH (AP) Anthony Ratliff-Williams returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown, threw for another on a trick play and hauled in the eventual go-ahead score midway through the fourth quarter to lift North Carolina to a 34-31 over Pittsburgh on Thursday night.


Ratliff-Williams accounted for 230 all-purpose yards for the Tar Heels (2-8, 1-6 Atlantic Coast Conference), who ended a six-game losing streak by rallying repeatedly against the Panthers. Nathan Elliott completed 20 of 31 passes for 235 yards and two scores in his first start for North Carolina, which beat the Panthers for the fifth straight time thanks to Ratliff-Williams' playmaking.


Darrin Hall ran for 121 yards and four touchdowns for Pitt (4-6, 2-4), but the Panthers saw their modest two-game winning streak come to an end and now face an uphill battle if they want to lock down a bowl berth for a 10th consecutive year. Pitt finishes the regular season against No. 17 Virginia Tech and No. 7 Miami.


North Carolina has struggled this season thanks in large part to an avalanche of injuries, including one to freshman quarterback Chazz Surratt last month against the Hurricanes that forced Elliott to get extensive playing time.


Elliott more than held his own against the Panthers, though it was Ratliff-Williams who did the majority of the damage. He took the opening kick and broke through several arm tackles while racing down the sideline for a 98-yard touchdown to give the Tar Heels the lead just 16 seconds in. He floated a 35-yard score to Josh Cabrera in the second quarter then hauled home on the winning score on a 3-yard flip from Elliott with 6:18 to go.


The Panthers responded repeatedly behind Hall, whose four touchdowns were the most by a Pitt player since James Conner scored four times against the Tar Heels in 2014. The Panthers lost that afternoon and fell again when quarterback Ben DiNucci couldn't get Pitt past midfield on the possession after Ratliff-Williams' touchdown grab.


Pitt punted with 2:54 to go and three timeouts but never got the ball back.


THE TAKEAWAY


UNC: Elliott likely deserves another look. The sophomore needs work as a passer but his mobility kept Pitt's improved pass rush in check for long stretches. He was at his best late while leading the Tar Heels on the late drive that put them ahead to stay.


Pitt: The Panthers are going to need something miraculous to keep their bowl streak alive. Virginia Tech and Miami will both have something significant to play for and Pitt will need to win both if it wants to extend its' season beyond the day after Thanksgiving.


UP NEXT

UNC: Welcomes Western Carolina to Chapel Hill on Nov. 18.


Pitt: travels to No. 17 Virginia Tech on Nov. 18.