Cnotes 2017 College Football Picks-Trends-News Etc. !

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Week 8

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 19


LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE @ ARKANSAS STATE
Louisiana-Lafayette is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Louisiana-Lafayette is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Arkansas State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Arkansas State is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home


MEMPHIS @ HOUSTON
Memphis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Memphis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games




Friday, October 20


WESTERN KENTUCKY @ OLD DOMINION
Western Kentucky is 20-2 SU in its last 22 games at home
Western Kentucky is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
Old Dominion is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Old Dominion's last 7 games


MARSHALL @ MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Marshall is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Marshall is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Middle Tennessee's last 8 games
Middle Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home


AIR FORCE @ NEVADA
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Air Force's last 7 games at home
Air Force is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home
Nevada is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home
Nevada is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home


COLORADO STATE @ NEW MEXICO
Colorado State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Mexico
Colorado State is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Mexico's last 7 games
New Mexico is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home




Saturday, October 21


IDAHO @ MISSOURI
Idaho is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Idaho's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Missouri's last 6 games
Missouri is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home


LOUISVILLE @ FLORIDA STATE
Louisville is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Louisville is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida State's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida State's last 5 games at home


IOWA STATE @ TEXAS TECH
Iowa State is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Iowa State's last 8 games on the road
Texas Tech is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Iowa State
Texas Tech is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home


IOWA @ NORTHWESTERN
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Iowa's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Iowa's last 5 games when playing on the road against Northwestern
Northwestern is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northwestern's last 5 games when playing at home against Iowa


MARYLAND @ WISCONSIN
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Maryland's last 7 games on the road
Maryland is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
Wisconsin is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Wisconsin is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


PURDUE @ RUTGERS
Purdue is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Purdue is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Rutgers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Rutgers is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home


OKLAHOMA STATE @ TEXAS
Oklahoma State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Texas
Oklahoma State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Texas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas's last 6 games when playing at home against Oklahoma State


TULSA @ CONNECTICUT
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tulsa's last 8 games on the road
Tulsa is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Connecticut's last 5 games
Connecticut is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games


AKRON @ TOLEDO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Akron's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Akron's last 5 games on the road
Toledo is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
Toledo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games


TEMPLE @ ARMY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Temple's last 5 games
Temple is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Army
Army is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Army is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games


PITTSBURGH @ DUKE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games
Pittsburgh is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Duke's last 5 games
Duke is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home


BOSTON COLLEGE @ VIRGINIA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston College's last 7 games at home
Boston College is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Virginia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Virginia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games


TROY @ GEORGIA STATE
Troy is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Troy's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Georgia State's last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Georgia State's last 23 games


NORTHERN ILLINOIS @ BOWLING GREEN
Northern Illinois is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Northern Illinois is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Bowling Green's last 7 games when playing Northern Illinois
Bowling Green is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Northern Illinois


KENT STATE @ OHIO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kent State's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kent State's last 9 games when playing Ohio
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Ohio's last 9 games when playing Kent State
Ohio is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games


WESTERN MICHIGAN @ EASTERN MICHIGAN
Western Michigan is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Western Michigan's last 5 games when playing Eastern Michigan
Eastern Michigan is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Eastern Michigan's last 6 games


BUFFALO @ MIAMI-OH
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami-OH
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami-OH's last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami-OH's last 6 games when playing Buffalo


CENTRAL MICHIGAN @ BALL STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Central Michigan's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Central Michigan's last 6 games on the road
Ball State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Central Michigan
Ball State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Central Michigan


TENNESSEE @ ALABAMA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing Alabama
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing on the road against Alabama
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


SYRACUSE @ MIAMI-FL
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Syracuse's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Syracuse's last 7 games
Miami-FL is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Syracuse
Miami-FL is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


NORTH CAROLINA @ VIRGINIA TECH
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of North Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against Virginia Tech
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of North Carolina's last 10 games when playing Virginia Tech
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Virginia Tech's last 5 games when playing at home against North Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Virginia Tech's last 10 games when playing North Carolina


ARIZONA STATE @ UTAH
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona State's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona State's last 5 games at home
Utah is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games at home


ILLINOIS @ MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Illinois's last 5 games at home
Illinois is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Illinois
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Illinois


INDIANA @ MICHIGAN STATE
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Indiana's last 9 games when playing Michigan State
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indiana's last 8 games on the road
Michigan State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana


GEORGIA SOUTHERN @ MASSACHUSETTS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia Southern's last 6 games on the road
Georgia Southern is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Massachusetts's last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Massachusetts's last 9 games


CENTRAL FLORIDA @ NAVY
Central Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Central Florida is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Navy is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games at home
Navy is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games


COASTAL CAROLINA @ APPALACHIAN STATE
Coastal Carolina is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Coastal Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Appalachian State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
Appalachian State is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games


KENTUCKY @ MISSISSIPPI STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kentucky's last 6 games when playing on the road against Mississippi State
Kentucky is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Mississippi State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Kentucky
Mississippi State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home


OREGON @ CALIFORNIA-LOS ANGELES
Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing California-Los Angeles
Oregon is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against California-Los An
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of California-Los Angeles's last 6 games when playing at home against Oregon
California-Los Angeles is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home


OKLAHOMA @ KANSAS STATE
Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas State
Kansas State is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas State's last 6 games when playing at home against Oklahoma


SOUTHERN METHODIST @ CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Southern Methodist's last 6 games on the road
Southern Methodist is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cincinnati's last 15 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cincinnati's last 14 games


NORTH TEXAS @ FLORIDA ATLANTIC
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of North Texas's last 8 games when playing Florida Atlantic
North Texas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Florida Atlantic
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Florida Atlantic's last 8 games when playing North Texas
Florida Atlantic is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games


LOUISIANA-MONROE @ SOUTH ALABAMA
LLouisiana-Monroe is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Louisiana-Monroe's last 5 games on the road
South Alabama is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
South Alabama is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games


UTAH STATE @ NEVADA-LAS VEGAS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Utah State's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah State's last 5 games when playing Nevada-Las Vegas
Nevada-Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nevada-Las Vegas's last 5 games


ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM @ CHARLOTTE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Alabama-Birmingham's last 5 games on the road
Alabama-Birmingham is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Charlotte is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
Charlotte is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home


BRIGHAM YOUNG @ EAST CAROLINA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Brigham Young's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Brigham Young's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of East Carolina's last 6 games
East Carolina is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games


SOUTHERN MISS @ LOUISIANA TECH
Southern Miss is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Southern Miss's last 6 games when playing Louisiana Tech
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Louisiana Tech's last 6 games when playing Southern Miss
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisiana Tech's last 5 games


RICE @ TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Rice's last 5 games at home
Rice is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Texas-San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas-San Antonio's last 5 games when playing Rice
Texas-San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Rice


SOUTH FLORIDA @ TULANE
South Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
South Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tulane is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Tulane is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home


LOUISIANA STATE @ MISSISSIPPI
Louisiana State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisiana State's last 5 games when playing Mississippi
Mississippi is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Mississippi's last 5 games when playing Louisiana State


AUBURN @ ARKANSAS
Auburn is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Auburn is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Arkansas's last 13 games at home
Arkansas is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home


WAKE FOREST @ GEORGIA TECH
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Wake Forest's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Wake Forest's last 6 games when playing Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Georgia Tech is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games


MICHIGAN @ PENN STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Michigan's last 8 games at home
Michigan is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Penn State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Penn State is 13-1-1 ATS in its last 15 games at home


SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA @ NOTRE DAME
Southern California is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games at home
Southern California is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Notre Dame is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Notre Dame is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games


ARIZONA @ CALIFORNIA
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing California
Arizona is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
California is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
California is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona


WEST VIRGINIA @ BAYLOR
West Virginia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
West Virginia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Baylor is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing West Virginia
Baylor is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games


KANSAS @ TEXAS CHRISTIAN
Kansas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Texas Christian
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Kansas's last 8 games at home
Texas Christian is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Texas Christian is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas


WYOMING @ BOISE STATE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Wyoming's last 6 games on the road
Wyoming is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boise State
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Wyoming
Boise State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Wyoming


FRESNO STATE @ SAN DIEGO STATE
Fresno State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Fresno State is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games
San Diego State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
San Diego State is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games at home


COLORADO @ WASHINGTON STATE
Colorado is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Colorado is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games at home
Washington State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Washington State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 8


Thursday’s game
Underdogs covered last four Memphis-Houston games; Tigers’ 48-44 (+6.5) win over Houston LY was their first in last seven series games. Memphis split its two road games this year, losing 40-13 (+4.5) at UCF, then routing UConn 70-31 (-14.5). Tigers won tough 30-27 game with Navy LW; they lost last three visits to Houston, by 1-10-41 points. Cougars lost 45-17 as a 13-point favorite at Tulsa; they allowed 200+ rushing yards in their two losses, 152 or less in their four wins. AAC home favorites are 7-4 vs spread in conference play.


Arkansas State scored 94 points in winning its first two Sun Belt games, by 18-34 points; they lost three of last four games with Louisiana, but won two of last three played here. Underdogs covered four of last six series games. Under Anderson, ASU is 12-5 vs spread as a home favorite. Ragin’ Cajuns allowed 16-7 points in their last two games, after allowing average of 53.8 ppg in first four games. Under Hudspeth, ULL is 18-11 vs spread as road underdogs, 1-2 this season. Sun Belt home favorites are 3-6 vs spread in conference play.


Friday’s games
Western Kentucky scored 60 pts/game in winning/covered its three games with Old Dominion, winning by 15-25-35 points. WKU split its two road games, losing 20-7 (-7.5) at Illinois, then escaping UTEP with a 15-14 (-17.5) win. Over last 4+ years, Hilltoppers are 7-10 vs spread as a road favorite. Old Dominion allowed 46 ppg in losing its last four games, all by 30+ points; Monarchs are 2-6 as home underdogs since moving up to I-A. C-USA home underdogs are 6-1 vs spread this season. Under is 3-2 in both teams’ games this season.


Marshall won its last four games, holding 3 of 4 opponents to 3 or less points; Thundering Herd is 2-1 on road this season- underdogs covered all three games. Marshall is 0-3 vs spread in its last three games as a road favorite. Middle Tennessee’s QB is hurt; they’re 2-1 at home this year but 1-3 vs spread when getting points. Since ’13, Blue Raiders are 3-2 as home dogs- they gave up 221+ rushing yards in their last three losses. C-USA home underdogs are 6-1 vs spread this season. MTSU is 6-1 vs spread in game following its last seven losses.


Air Force got its first I-A win LW, rallying back from down 30-7 in 3rd quarter to beat UNLV 34-30; Falcons allowed 266+ rushing yards in their last three games. Flyboys are 0-3 on road this year, 2-1 as road underdogs, despite allowing 44.3 pts/game- they’re 6-2 vs spread in last eight games as a road dog. Nevada is 1-6 with a loss to I-AA Idaho State; they’re 4-7 vs spread in last 11 games as a home underdog. Over is 3-1 in last four games for both teams. Mountain West home underdogs are 2-5 vs spread this season.


Colorado State won its last three games, scoring 41 ppg, since losing at Alabama; Rams won their last seven games with New Mexico, covering last five. State won its last three visits to Albuquerque, by 7-24-4 points. Rams are 2-0 as road favorites this year, 8-3 going back to ’13. Lobos allowed 38-38 points in their last two games; they got blanked 38-0 in Fresno LW; they are 5-2 vs spread in last seven games as a home underdog. Mountain West home underdogs are 2-5 against the spread this season. Under is 4-1 in Lobos’ last five games.


Saturday’s top 13 games
Favorites won/covered 5 of last 6 Iowa-Northwestern games; Hawkeyes won three of last four series games- they’re 2-3 in last five visits to Evanston. Iowa split its two road games, winning 44-41 (OT) at Iowa St, losing 17-10 (+4) at Michigan State; Hawkeyes scored 24+ points in their four wins, were held to 19-10 in their two losses- they’re 17-5 vs spread in last 22 road games. Northwestern is 11-20 vs spread in last 31 home games; they’re 2-1 SU at home this year. Big 14 road teams are 15-8 vs spread in conference games.


Michigan State is 5-1, winning road games last two weeks by combined total of 7 points; they’re 12-10 in last 22 games as a home favorite, 3-0 this year. Spartans (-6.5) were upset 24-21 LY at Indiana, their first loss in eight games against the Hoosiers. Indiana hasn’t won/covered in their last six visits here, losing by average score of 46-17. Hoosiers lost in OT to Michigan LW, a tough loss; Indiana is 11-18 in its last 29 games as a road underdog, 0-1 this year. Big 14 home favorites are 5-6 against spread this season.


Underdogs covered six of last seven Wake Forest-Georgia Tech games; Deacons lost four of last five visits to Tech, losing last two, 30-27/30-17. Tech is 8-3 in last 11 series games- they are 3-2 this season with two 1-point losses, 42-41 to Tennessee, 25-24 at Miami. Jackets are 2-0 as a home favorite this year, 5-2 in last 7 tries as a HF. Wake had last week off; they lost to Florida State/Clemson before the bye but have road wins at BC/Appalachian State. Deacons are 8-3 vs spread in last 11 games as a road underdog. ACC home favorites are 3-8 vs spread.


Michigan won its last three games with Penn State; they pounded the Lions 49-10 LY, running ball for 326 yards. Wolverines lost three of last four visits to Happy Valley. Michigan is 5-1 this year but they’ve struggled on offense, have backup QB playing- they’re 4-8 vs spread in last 12 games as a road underdog. Penn State had a bye LW; they’re 6-0, 3-1 vs spread as a home favorite this year; under Franklin, they’re 13-7 as a home favorite. Lions ran ball for only 39-95 yards in their last couple of games. Big 14 home favorites are 5-6 vs spread this season.


Virginia won its last four games, is a surprising 5-1, with home loss to Indiana; Cavaliers are 6-4 vs spread in last ten games as a home favorite (2-0 this year). Virginia is +7 in turnovers; they were + in turnovers in every game but one. In their last two games, Virginia opponents were just 21-60/170 passing. BC beat Louisville 45-42 as a 21.5-point road underdog LW; Eagles are 3-1 as an underdog this year; since 2014, they’re 9-2-1 vs spread as a road underdog. BC ran ball for 364 yards at Louisville last week. These teams haven’t met since 2010.


Navy-Central Florida haven’t played before; UCF is 5-0 this year, beating Memphis 40-13- Navy lost 30-27 at Memphis last week. Knights won 38-10 at Maryland (Terps played #3 QB), 51-23 at Cincinnati in their two road games- under Frost, UCF is 4-0 vs spread as a road favorite. With 28 points their closest wins of year, if UCF has to play a full 60:00, it’ll be new to them. Navy is 5-1 after loss in Memphis LW; their last two games were both decide by a FG. Since 2013, Middies are 4-0 vs spread as a home underdog. Under is 4-2 in Navy games this season.


Oregon lost three of its last four games, giving app 37-49 points in their last two road games. Ducks scored total of 17 points in their last two games- they were 5-13/33 passing in 49-7 loss to Stanford LW. Oregon won its last six games with UCLA (teams last met in ’14), covering four of last five; they won 42-30/24-10 in last two visits to Pasadena. Ducks are 1-3-1 vs spread in last five games as a road underdog. UCLA lost three of last four games, allowing 47+ points in all three losses; they’re 5-12 vs spread in last 17 games as a home favorite.


Arizona ran ball for 425-457 yards in last two games, behind QB Tate, who has 557 of those yards himself. Wildcats are 2-0 on road, winning 63-16 at UTEP, 45-42 at Colorado; they’re 5-4 as road favorites under RichRod. Wildcats were held to 16-24 points in their two losses. Arizona won its last three games with Cal, but teams last met in 2014; Wildcats lost four of last five trips to Berkeley. Golden Bears snapped 3-game skid with shocking 37-3 home win over Wazzu LW. Cal covered all three of its games as a home underdog this season.


Oklahoma State won five of its last seven games with Texas, winning last four visits here (3-0-1 vs spread). Favorites are 7-0-1 vs spread in last eight series games. Cowboys scored 48 ppg in winning its three road games this year- since 2012, they’re 5-9-2 vs spread as a road favorite, 2-1 this season. Texas is 3-3 after tough 29-24 loss to Oklahoma LW; Longhorns played an OT game with K-State the week before that. Last 2+ years, Texas is 3-0-1 vs spread as a home dog. Big X home underdogs are 2-3 against the spread so far this season.


Louisville hammered Florida State 63-20 early LY, outgaining Seminoles 530-284. Cardinals are 1-2 in ACC play vs FSU- they lost 41-21 here in 2015. Cardinals allowed 1,075 yards, 84 points in losing its last two games; they were a 21.5-point fave when they lost to Boston College LW. Louisville split two road games this year, winning 47-35 at UNC, losing 39-25 at NC State two weeks ago. Florida State is 2-3 with shaky wins over Wake Forest (26-19), Duke (17-10); they ran ball for 203-228 yards last two weeks, taking heat off of their true freshman QB.


Home team won last four USC-Notre Dame games; Trojans lost 41-31/14-10 in last two visits to South Bend. Favorites covered last five series games. USC has a very young OL because of injuries; they split two road games, winning 30-20 at Cal, losing 30-27 at Wazzu. Since 2012, Trojans are 3-8 vs spread as a road underdog. Notre Dame is 5-1, losing 20-19 to Georgia at home; Irish ran ball for 674 yards in their last two games- they’re 7-6 vs spread in last 13 games as a home favorite. Pac-12 teams are 11-16 vs spread out of conference, 2-2 as underdogs.


Oklahoma allowed 1,400 yards in its last three games, narrow wins over Baylor (49-41), Texas (29-24), and a 38-31 home loss to Iowa State. Sooners are 8-2 in last ten games, with Kansas State, winning/covering their last four visits to Little Apple- they won 55-0 here two years ago. Oklahoma is 8-5 in its last 13 games as a road favorite. K-State lost its last two games; they were held to 216 yards in 26-6 home loss to TCU LW. Wildcats are 8-3 vs spread in their last 11 games as a home underdog. Big X home underdogs are 2-3 against the spread.


Iowa State is 4-2, with road wins at Akron (41-14), Oklahoma (38-31); they hammered Texas Tech 66-10 LY, after losing previous four games with Tech by average score of 42-27. State lost five of its last six visits to Lubbock (2-4 vs spread). Underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in last seven series games. Texas Tech is 6-1-1 vs spread in its last eight games as a home favorite- they beat Arizona State 52-45 (-7) in only game this year as a home favorite. Home favorites are 4-4 vs spread in Big X games this season. Red Raiders allowed 41+ points in 3 of their last 5 games.

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 8
October 18, 2017

THURSDAY, OCT. 19


Matchup Skinny Edge


MEMPHIS at HOUSTON...Underdog team has covered last three years in series. Tigers 6-10 last 15 on board, but Cougs only 1-5-1 last 7 as home chalk.
Memphis, based on series and team trends.


UL-LAFAYETTE at ARKANSAS STATE...Ark State 14-6 vs. line at Jonesboro since 2014 for Blake Anderson. Red Wolves won and covered last two vs. ULL. Cajuns on 2-5 spread skid since late 2016.
Arkansas State, based on team trends.


FRIDAY, OCT. 20


Matchup Skinny Edge


WESTERN KENTUCKY at OLD DOMINION...WKU 1-4-1 vs. line under Mike Sanford, Jr. Though ODU only 1-5 vs. line TY and has failed to cover last three in a row vs. Tops. Monarchs 0-3 vs. line at home TY after 5-0-1 Norfolk mark LY.
Slight to Old Dominion, based on team trends.


MARSHALL at MTSU...Herd 5-1 vs. line TY and is 2-0-1 vs. line last three meetings. MTSU very middling in most categories, just 9-12-1 last 22 on board.
Slight to Marshall, based on recent series trends.


AIR FORCE at NEVADA...Force 1-5 last six as MW road chalk but is 5-3 last eight vs. spread overall and 22-16-1 last 39 on board. Pack 3-6 vs. line last nine in Reno, 7-12 vs. spread since 2016 (3-4 TY).
Air Force, based on team trends.


COLORADO STATE at NEW MEXICO....Like Davie has owned Air Force since arriving at UNM, he has been owned by CSU, which has won and covered last five meetings. Bobo has covered 8 straight and 10 of last 11 as visitor.
Colorado State, based on team and series trends.


SATURDAY, OCT. 14


Matchup Skinny Edge


IOWA at NORTHWESTERN...Iowa has won and covered 3 of last 4 meetings after Pat Fitz won and covered 3 of previous four in series. Ferentz 16-5-1 vs. spread as visitor since 2013.
Iowa, based on team trends.


TULSA at UCONN... Huskies now on 1-10 spread skid since midway LY after Temple upset! Tulsa 11-5 vs. line away from home since Philip Montgomery was hired in 2015.
Tulsa, based on team trends.


TROY at GEORGIA STATE...Troy 9-5-1 vs. line away since 2015, though has not covered last two seasons vs. GSU. Panthers 6-12 vs. spread as host since 2014.
Slight to Troy, based on team trends.

SMU at CINCINNATI...Bearcats now 2-3-1 vs. line for Fickell, 6-15-1 last 22 on board since late 2015. SMU on 10-3 spread uptick.
SMU, based on team trends.


NORTH TEXAS at FAU...Lane Kiffin has now covered 4 of last 5 TY for Owls. UNT just 2-4 vs. spread last six as visitor, though Seth Littrell is 5-3 as road dog since LY.
Slight to FAU, based on recent trends.


BUFFALO at MIAMI-OHIO...Buff now 6-1 vs. line in spread turnaround season. Meanwhile M-O a disappointing 1-6 vs. spread this term and has dropped all three vs. spread at Yager Stadium, and RedHawks 2-7 vs. spread last nine as host, though have covered last 2 in series.
Buffalo, based on recent trends.


AKRON at TOLEDO...Akron working on four straight covers TY. Bowden 6-2 last eight as road dog. UT 2-7-1 last ten, 4-10-1 last 15 vs. spread since early 2016.
Akron, based on recent trends.


KENT STATE at OHIO...Kent State has somehow covered 3 of last 4 TY despite scoring 3 or fewer in four of seven games this season. Solich has won and covered last three in series and is 16-9 last 25 on board since late 2015.
Solich and Ohio, based on team and recent series trends.


NORTHERN ILLINOIS at BOWLING GREEN...NIU on 10-3-1 spread uptick since mid 2015. BGSU 5-14 vs. line for Jinks since LY.
NIU, based on team trends

WESTERN MICHIGAN at EASTERN MICHIGAN...EMU continues to cover, 5-1 vs. line TY, now 14-3 last 17 on board! Though note only 2-3 last five vs. spread at Ypsilanti. EMU has also covered 5 of last 7 vs. WMU. Broncos on 2-7 spread skid since late LY.
EMU, based on recent and series trends.


INDIANA at MICHIGAN STATE...Dantonio 3 -0 as East Lansing chalk after 4-8 mark in role past two years. Hoosiers mostly middling, just 7-9 vs. line since LY, but only 8-13 last 21 as visiting dog.
Slight to Michigan State, based on team trends.


UAB at CHARLOTTE...Charlotte had dropped 7 straight vs. line prior to Marshall cover. UAB 5-1 vs. line TY, 11-6 vs. spread for Bill Clark since 2014.
UAB, based on team trends.


TEMPLE at ARMY...Owls 1-6 vs. line since Rhule departed before bowl LY, but 11-3 as dog since 2015 (1-2 TY).
Slight to Army, based on recent trends.


BYU at EAST CAROLINA...Cougs no covers last 7 since late LY. ECU on 2-14-1 spread skid.
Slight to ECU, based on BYU negatives.


PURDUE at RUTGERS...Brohm 5-1 vs. line TY, 25-12-1 since late 2014 at WKU & Purdue. 'Gere 1-4 last 5 vs. line as Big Ten host.
Purdue, based on team trends.


PITT at DUKE...Narduzzi 8-4 vs. line as visiting dog since 2015, much better than home marks. Duke no covers last three TY but Cutcliffe still on 37-20-2 spread uptick.
Slight to Duke, based on series trends.

SYRACUSE at MIAMI-FL... Babers has covered 4 of last 5 as road dog since mid 2016. Richt 8-2 last ten vs. spread, and Miami 12-6-1 as home chalk since 2014.
Miami, based on team trends.


CENTRAL MICHIGAN at BALL STATE... Ball has suffered a couple of bad beatings in a row, now no covers last four TY. CMU however only 2-5 vs. line TY, 4-13 last 17 vs. number. Ball on 5-14-1 vs. spread at Muncie since 2014, though Cards have covered last three meetings.
Slight to Ball State, based on series trends.


WAKE FOREST at GEORGIA TECH...Wake 5-1 vs. line TY, 11-3 last 14 on board since early 2016. Deacs 9-2 vs. spread last 11 away from Winston-Salem. Though Paul Johnson 9 straight covers since late 2016.
Slight to Wake Forest, based on extended trends.

COASTAL CAROLINA at APP STATE...CC only 1-5 vs. line in debut, no covers last 5. App just 2-9 vs. line last 11 at Boone.
Slight to App State, based on recent trends.

MICHIGAN at PENN STATE...Harbaugh 6-3 vs. line last nine away from Ann Arbor. Only 1-1 as dog with Wolverines (both vs. Ohio State). Has won and covered handily last two years vs. James Franklin including 49-10 LY. Penn State on 14-2 spread uptick since early 2016.
Slight to Penn State, based on recent trends.

MARYLAND at WISCONSIN...Durkin only 2-4 as visiting dog with Terps (though 2-1 TY). Badgers only 6-9-1 as home chalk for Paul Chryst (as opposed to 11-1 vs. line last 12 away from Camp Randall!).
Slight to Wisconsin, based on team trends.


NORTH CAROLINA at VIRGINIA TECH...Fedora 1-6 vs. line TY, 1-7-1 last nine on board. Heels no covers last four in series, though UNC 6-2 vs. spread last 8 as visitor. Hokies 5-3 as Blacksburg chalk for Fuente.
Virginia Tech, based on recent trends.


BOSTON COLLEGE at VIRGINIA...Addazio 9-2-1 last 11 as visiting dog and has covered last four TY. Cavs also now on 4-game cover streak.
Slight to BC, based on team trends.


WYOMING at BOISE STATE...Bohl has three covers in a row after opening with 3 straight Ls this season. Bohl 9-3 last 12 as dog. Broncos no covers last 12 (0-11-1) as blue carpet chalk!
Wyoming, based on team trends.


KANSAS at TCU...Frogs 1-8 as Fort Worth chalk since LY (1-2 TY), cover vs. Jackson State! Kansas has covered 5 straight in series! Though Beaty just 4-9 as road dog since 2015.
Slight to Kansas, based on team and series trends.


RICE at UTSA...Owls 1-5 vs. line TY, 0-4 as DD dog in 2017. Home team has covered last 3 in series.
UTSA, based on team and series trends.


GEORGIA SOUTHERN at UMASS...Something has to give here! GSU 4-13 vs. line since Summers took over LY, 2-5 as road dog. Mass 3-10 vs. line last 13 as host but is 5-5 last 10 as chalk (0-2 TY).
Slight to UMass, based on team trends.


UCF at NAVY...Scott Frost 5-0 vs. line TY and 13-5 since taking over UCF. Navy 7-2 last nine as dog.
Slight to Navy, based on team trends.


IDAHO at MISSOURI... Mizzou 4-10 vs. line last 14 on board. Vandals 18-3 vs. line away from Kibbie Dome since 2014.
Idaho, based on team trends.


KENTUCKY at MISSISSIPPI STATE...MSU only 2-4 vs. spread last six as SEC host. Stoops 5-1 as visiting dog since LY.
Kentucky, based on team trends.

USF at TULANE... USF has covered last four TY and on 21-10 spread run since 2015, also 15-6-1 as chalk since 2015.
Slight to USF, based on team trends.


UTAH STATE at UNLV...Utags 2-11 vs. line last 13 away from home, 3-13 last 15 vs. spread in MW. Sanchez just 5-8 vs. line last 13 at Sam Boyd Stadium.
Slight to UNLV, based on extended Utag road woes.

SOUTHERN MISS at LA TECH...USM on 7-1 spread run since late LY. Golden Eagles have romped past Skip Holtz past two seasons. Tech on 3-6 spread skid since late LY.
Slight to Southern Miss, based on recent trends.

OREGON at UCLA...Bruins have lost last six meetings, Ducks covered 4 of those last 5, no win margin fewer than 12 that span, though those covered most of UO glory years. Mora 3-8 last 11 vs. spread at Rose Bowl. Mora on 5-14-1 spread skid, Ducks 3-7-1 last eleven on road.
Slight to Oregon, based on series trends.


ARIZONA at CAL...Rich-Rod 2-0 SU and vs. line away TY after 2-12 spread mark previous 14 away from Tucson. Even after WSU upset, Cal only 5-7 last 12 on board since mid 2016.
Slight to Arizona, based on recent trends.


ILLINOIS at MINNESOTA...Lovie Smith on 1-8 spread skid since late LY. Illini 8-18 vs. line on road since 2008 (0-2 TY). Gophers have covered 5 of last 6 meetings
Minnesota, based on team and series trends.


TENNESSEE at ALABAMA...Tide 8-3 vs. line last 11 in series and hasn’t lost to UT since Mike Shula’s last year of 2006. Saban 6-1 vs. line last seven as SEC host. Butch Jones 7-8-1 as dog since taking over Vols in 2013.
Alabama, based on team trends.


OKLAHOMA STATE at TEXAS... Tom Herman unbeaten last five vs. line TY and 7-0 as dog since 2015 with Houston and Horns. Gundy just 5-9-1 as visiting chalk since 2012.
Texas, based on team trends.


WEST VIRGINIA at BAYLOR...Matt Rhule Temple and Baylor teams are 12-4 their last 14 as a dog. Baylor 4-1 vs. line last five in series, and Bears 5-0 as home dog since 2011.
Baylor, based on team and series trends.

AUBURN at ARKANSAS...Malzahn has won and covered 3 of 4 vs. his home-state Hogs since taking over Arkansas. Malzahn 6-4 as visiting chalk since 2013. Bielema on 0-7-1 spread skid since late LY.
Auburn, based on Arkansas woes.


LOUISVILLE at FLORIDA STATE...’Ville on 3-13 spread skid since mid 2016. But did romp over FSU big LY. Cards 2-6 vs. line last eight away from Papa John’s. Jimbo 0-4-1 vs. line TY.
Slight to FSU, based on team trends.


ULM at SOUTH ALABAMA...USA 2-10-1 vs. line at Mobile since 2014. Matt Viator’s ULM has covered five straight on road.
ULM, based on team trends.


USC at NOTRE DAME...Home team has won and covered last four meetings. Trojans on 1-7 spread skid since late LY. Irish in midst of turnaround, 5-1 SU and vs. spread TY.
Notre Dame, based on recent and series home trends.


OKLAHOMA at KANSAS STATE...Bill Snyder 33-18-1 as dog since returning to K-State in 2009. Sooners have covered 4 of last 6 meetings.
Slight to Kansas State, based on Snyder dog marks.


LSU at OLE MISS...Orgeron 5-1 vs. line last six away from Baton Rouge. Though home team has won and covered last four in series. Rebs have covered last 2 TY but still on 3-10 spread skid.
Slight to LSU, based on team trends.


IOWA STATE at TEXAS TECH...ISU destroyed TT 66-10 LY. Cyclones have covered 4 of last 6 on road, and Matt Campbell Toledo & ISU teams 19-10 as dog. Kingsbury however 7-1-1 last 9 as home chalk.
Slight to Iowa State, based on Campbell dog marks.


ARIZONA STATE at UTAH...Utes have covered four straight in series. Sun Devils 3-7-1 vs. spread last 11 as visitor. Whittingham 6-0 vs. line TY, on 10-2 spread uptick.
Utah, based on team trends.


COLORADO at WASHINGTON STATE...Leach 9-2 vs. spread last 11 as Pac-12 host. But Buffs have covered last seven as straight visitor, and MacIntyre 10-6 last 16 as dog.
Slight to Colorado, based on team trends.


FRESNO STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE...Tedford 5-0-1 vs. line TY, Fresno 7-0-1 last eight and 10-2-1 last 12 vs number. Bulldogs 6-1 last seven as dog. Aztecs 3-8 vs. line last 11 as Qualcomm chalk.
Fresno State, based on team and series trends.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Surprising Bets
October 18, 2017


Almost nobody likes to go out of their comfort zone when it comes to betting on college football. They prefer their former school, or at least the conferences that you can see on television. That’s fine and all, but you’re leaving money on the table if you’re not careful. Check out some of the most shocking bets and their weekend slate as you prepare your Week 8 NCAAF betting ticket.


NO. 16 NOTRE DAME (5-1 SU and ATS)
Next Game: USC at Notre Dame -3.5


At this time last season, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish were untouchable. They ended their 2016 campaign with an abysmal betting record of 4-8 SU and ATS. Obviously, their fortunes have turned around immensely.


So how are they doing this?


Well, a lot of it has to do with schedule. As a glorious little independent school, Notre Dame always faces some whacked out slate and this year is no different. The Irish have faced Temple, Boston College, Miami of Ohio and UNC in blowout wins. Astonishingly, they also crushed the Michigan State Spartans 38-18 on the road.


The one-loss Irish have only coughed up a single game, and it was against the currently undefeated Georgia Bulldogs. That game happened all the way back in Week 2 when nobody knew that Georgia was this good and everyone anticipated Notre Dame to make a comeback. The Irish were -5.5 point favorites and lost 20-19 in an excellent game.


Truthfully, there’s no rhyme or reason for why Notre Dame is posting such a great ATS record and there’s no point in caring. Josh Adams is a fantastic running back talent and quarterback Brandon Wimbush is a very annoying, 6-foot-1 quarterback that likes to run for touchdowns. The Irish rank 5th in the country with 308 yards on the ground and are averaging 40.0 points against, while their fledgling schedule has granted them a 16.8 points against average. All good things.


The Irish face their biggest test of the year in the fun, annual rival game against USC this weekend. They’re soft favorites at -3.5, but the deliciously un-bettable Trojans are 1-5 ATS this season and Aaron Darnold is doing nothing to prove why he’s the top quarterback prospect in the country. Right now, there’s no reason to back off Notre Dame. Don’t overanalyze. Don’t overthink it. Just bet them, especially this weekend when the Trojans find another way to lose on the big stage.


NO. 20 UCF KNIGHTS (5-0 SU and ATS)
Next Game: UCF -7.5 at Navy


Offence, offence and more offense. That’s the ticket to the Knights, who have used turned in to a big play machine, which is sort of what they do. The trend with UCF is to just book them when they’re a hot ticket item. They’ve done this in the past so consistently that you can’t ignore it anymore.


UCF went 9-5 ATS in 2013, 8-4 ATS in 2014 and 2016 and threw the scent off the trail in 2015 with an abysmal, winless season that saw them go 2-10 ATS. The point is that outside of that one blip of a season two years ago, the Knights have been bankable. The Knights have their hands full with the wily Navy Midshipmen this weekend as -7.5 favorites but overall it’s not a huge concern. UCF is far too explosive offensively for Navy to keep up with, and the rush defence for the Knights is 18th best in the nation.


BUFFALO BULLS (3-4 SU and 7-0 ATS)
Next Game: Buffalo vs. Miami (Ohio) -3.0


This is pretty obvious. The Bulls are an automatic bet at the roulette wheel until the table turns up a red. Every now and then, there’s a team in a far off distance conference that nobody cares about that’s just going bananas against the spread. This year, it’s Buffalo in the MAC where they have to contend with a lot of pretty bad teams.


At its core, an ATS record is simply how well a team performs against long term expectations. The market on Buffalo and the MAC in general is so small that it doesn’t help or hurt a sportsbook to dole out lines. People don’t bet on Buffalo and teams in the lesser conferences because they’re unknowns and it’s terribly boring. Plus, you can never find them on television.


But why look a gift horse in the mouth? Buffalo is averaging a steady +3.1 point differential this season with a consistent passing game complimented by a well balanced defence. In short, Buffalo is simply well built. Take them as dogs on the road against Miami of Ohio and keeping spinning that wheel.


FRESNO STATE (4-2 SU and 5-0-1 ATS)
Next Game: Fresno State at San Diego State -7.5


People who have tracked Fresno State for this very reason have been well rewarded. They went 7-4 ATS over 12 games in 2016 and also buoyed a stretch of games in 2014 where they ripped off a 7-3 ATS record after beginning the year on their heels at 0-3 SU and ATS. The point is that we’ve seen these Bulldogs show some bite before. At +13.0 in point differential on the season, they’re either a great team to bet against fledgling competition or as spread busting heroes against monster lines.


GEORGIA TECH (3-2 SU and 5-0 ATS)
Next Game: Wake Forest at Georgia Tech -6.5


Nobody seems to be buying in on what Georgia Tech is doing, and that’s fine. But at 5-0 ATS on the year with both losses coming by one-point, why wouldn’t you take a look? The Jackets are led by quarterback TaQuon Marshall who has run his way in to the hearts of his classmates by leading a ground game that averages 362 yards per game. On top of that, the recruiting efforts on the defensive side have yielded positive gains with the team surrendering just 304.2 yards per game and 20.2 points against.


I’m not saying you should mortgage your future on the Jackets, but there’s value here that nobody else is really noticing. What they’re doing is riding a wave that they crated last year when they ended the season going 4-0 SU and ATS. Eventually, the bow will break and the flood is coming against Clemson next week. For now, however, Georgia Tech remains a bet-on proposition.

 

[CNOTES]

Memphis at Houston
October 17, 2017


This week’s Thursday night game figures to play a big role in determining the 2017 AAC West champion. Memphis and Houston are both 2-1 in conference play with Navy also in the mix on top of the division standings.


Here is a look at a key Thursday night game to kick off the college football weekend with these teams delivering an entertaining 48-44 result late last season.


Matchup: Memphis Tigers at Houston Cougars
Venue: At TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas
Time/TV: Thursday, Oct. 19, 8:00 p.m. ET ESPN
Line: Houston -3, Over/Under 60½
Last Meeting: 2016, at Memphis (+6½) 48, Houston 44


Houston made national waves last season climbing as high as #6 in polls on the strength of a huge opening weekend victory over #3 Oklahoma. The Cougars would beat then #3 Louisville late in the season as well but wound up dropping three conference games and lost badly in the Las Vegas Bowl for a 9-4 final tally.


As was widely speculated late last season Tom Herman left Houston after just two successful seasons to take over at Texas. With no head coaching experience, Major Applewhite was hired to lead the Cougars in 2017 even though he coached the team in the 34-10 loss to San Diego State in the bowl season. Applewhite was a quarterback at Texas and spent six seasons under Mack Brown in Austin before serving as the offensive coordinator at Houston the past three seasons.


Houston’s 2017 started with some logistical challenges due to Hurricane Harvey as the opening week game with Texas-San Antonio wound up cancelled. The Cougars won Applewhite’s regular season debut with a win at Arizona, a victory that now looks a bit more impressive than it did at the time. A 27-24 loss to Texas Tech was a competitive performance before the Cougars won their first two AAC games in tight contests with Temple and SMU.


Last week’s loss at Tulsa was a setback however with an ugly 45-17 result. Houston struggled to stop Tulsa’s rushing attack allowing 288 yards on the ground and the Cougars also had three turnovers. It was a misleading final score however as it was still a seven-point game into the fourth quarter as Tulsa scored a pair of touchdowns in the final minute of the game.


Kyle Allen was one of the nation’s top recruits at Texas A&M in 2014. He had mixed results in two seasons with the Aggies before transferring to Houston last season, sitting out last year with the expectation to be the starter this season. Allen didn’t play particularly well in the first three games of the season with four interceptions and he has been replaced by senior Kyle Postma who had previously made two starts and saw some meaningful action the past two seasons when Greg Ward was injured, including leading a huge 35-34 win over Memphis two years ago. Postma’s numbers aren’t any better than Allen’s at this point in the season, though he is a bit more of a rushing presence.


The Cougars are actually posting stronger rushing numbers than last season, gaining 4.4 yards per carry with Duke Catalon nearly approaching his season total from a year ago when he led the Cougars in net rushing yards. A returning duo of receivers is on pace for strong contributions as well with seniors Steven Dunbar and Linell Bonner combining for 77 receptions in six games.


Houston had very impressive defensive scoring numbers until last week, holding Arizona to 16, Texas Tech to 27, and SMU to 22 for three strong showings against high scoring teams. Sophomore defensive lineman Ed Oliver is one of the highest regarded NFL draft prospects for the 2019 draft but he has battled a knee injury in recent weeks, though he has played the past two weeks since leaving the Temple game on September 30.


The Houston defense will be severely tested again this week as 5-1 Memphis has scored nearly 37 points per game. The Tigers lost 40-13 at UCF earlier this season but delivered a marquee non-conference win over UCLA and last week picked up a potentially big tiebreaker with a win over Navy, who currently leads the AAC West at 3-1.


Only a handful of quarterbacks nationally have been more productive than Memphis senior Riley Ferguson who seamlessly stepped in to replace NFL Draft pick Paxton Lynch last season. Ferguson threw for nearly 3,700 yards last season with 32 touchdowns and 10 interceptions and he is on a similar pace this season. Anthony Miller had 95 catches last season and in his senior season he already has 45 catches and nine touchdowns.


Memphis is on a stronger rushing pace this season as sophomore Darrell Henderson has incredibly gained 8.1 yards per rush while the top two rushers from last season Doroland Dorceus and Patrick Taylor remain positive contributors as well, though Dorceus is still working his way back from an early season injury. Collectively the Tigers have gained 5.1 yards per carry this season, up from just 4.3 last season.


Memphis caught some breaks last week with Navy committing five turnovers as the Tigers held on for a 30-27 win. The 3-0 start to the season also featured close calls over UL-Monroe and FCS Southern Illinois as well as the big 48-45 win over UCLA at home. Memphis will have to play at Tulsa in November while hosting improved Tulane and SMU teams in the remaining AAC games but a win this week will put the Tigers in the driver’s seat for their first trip to the conference championship game.


Should Memphis continue to have success Mike Norvell in just his second season as the head coach at Memphis, he could get some attention from major conference programs. He led successful offenses under Todd Graham and Tulsa, Pittsburgh, and Arizona State and as one of the younger coaches in the nation he would be an attractive fit for several programs leading a fan-friendly offense.


Last Season: These teams didn’t meet until Thanksgiving weekend last season with Navy already claiming the AAC West title. Both teams were headed to bowl games but Houston’s bid to be the top Group of Five squad had expired and the rumors of Herman heading to Texas were strong. The Cougars were still ranked team when they visited Memphis as they had just stunned then #3 Louisville 36-10 in a national TV game.


The teams traded scores early but Memphis managed to score the final 13 points of the first half to double-up Houston 34-17. Houston scored 20 consecutive points to start the second half to lead 37-34 with about seven minutes remaining. Memphis hit a long touchdown pass just after the four-minute mark but Houston answered with 1:29 on the clock to still lead by three. Ferguson with his feet and his arm brought the Tigers to the Houston 30-yard-line in just two plays to at least be in position to set-up a tying field goal attempt. A pass interference call gave Memphis 15 more yards and on 3rd-and-5 with 19 seconds remaining Ferguson hit Miller for the game-winning score.


Historical Trends:


-- Last season’s win snapped a six-game slide for Memphis in this series though they have covered in the past two meetings.


-- Going back to 1996 Houston has won 10 of 16 meetings with an 8-8 ATS mark, going 4-2 ATS the past six meetings with these teams meeting each year since 2009.


-- Memphis is on a 15-10-1 ATS run as a road underdog going back to the 2012 season though Memphis is just 2-6 in the past eight instances as an underdog regardless of venue.


-- Houston is 47-12 S/U and 31-25-1 ATS at home since 2008.


-- The Cougars went just 2-4 ATS at home last season however and are just 8-14 ATS as a home favorite since 2014, though 2-1 ATS this season under Applewhite.


-- As a single-digit favorite Houston is just 4-7 ATS since 2015 as the main area of success for the Cougars has been in the underdog role where Houston is 14-1 ATS since 2013 with nine S/U wins.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday’s six-pack


NFL trends with Week 7 upon us……..


— Chiefs covered 7 of last 9 games as a favorite.


— Colts covered 12 of last 14 tries as a home underdog.


— Cleveland is 3-13 vs spread in its last 16 games.


— Panthers are 1-6-1 in last 8 tries as a road favorite.


— Dallas is 9-3 vs spread in its last 12 post-bye games.


— Atlanta is 8-1 in its last 9 games as a road underdog.


******************


Thursday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but…….


13) Philadelphia Eagle fans are not happy with NFL referee Pete Morelli; the last four times Morelli worked an Eagle game, his crew called a total of 40 penalties for 396 yards on the Iggles, only 8 penalties for 74 yards on their opponents. Its enough to make a guy paranoid.


A petition was circulated; last I heard, over 60,000 people had signed it, requesting that Morelli not work any more Eagle games. Alrighty then.


12) Andrew Luck had a setback with his injured shoulder, and now there is talk he won’t play at all this season, which is bad news for everyone in Indianapolis except Jacoby Brissett.


11) 2018 NFL Draft will be at Jerry World in Dallas, the first time the draft will be in an actual NFL stadium.


10) General Electric shelled out a lot of money to put their patch on the Boston Celtics’ uniforms this season; less than six minutes into the Celtics’ season, newly-acquired star Gordon Hayward breaks his ankle, is lost for the season. So much for seeing those patches in June.


9) Celtics were the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference last year, but they’ve got 11 new players on their team this season. Am I the only person who finds this unusual?


8) Jacksonville told its kicker Jason Myers to take a hike, signed former Chargers’ kicker Josh Lambo, who in a perfect world, would kick for the Packers (Lambeau Field…..get it??)


7) BYU’s football team is 1-6, with only win 20-6 against I-AA Portland State; they’re off to their worst start since 1969. Cougars need to join a league- -maybe when the new dome gets built in Las Vegas, UNLV/BYU can join the Big X as a western tandem.


6) When I was a kid, I loved game shows, totally enjoyed them. One of the games was Jokers’ Wild, hosted by Jack Barry, where contestants played with a simulated slot machine to try and win their money/prizes. It wasn’t the best show, but it had an odd appeal.


Now it is coming back on WTBS and it is being hosted by Snoop Dawg. I have no opinion on this, other than I’ve got to watch it at least once. In the commercials I saw, Snoop Dawg appears to be wearing a velour smoking jacket. If gameshows make a comeback, that would be good.


5) Yu Darvish walked with the bases loaded Monday night; he is the first pitcher in 40 years to walk with the bases loaded in a playoff game. Larry Christensen of the Phillies was the last pitcher to draw a bases loaded walk in a playoff game, in 1977.


4) Nick Young scored 23 points for the Warriors Tuesday night, but Golden State was also -10 in the 29:00 he was on the floor in their 122-121 loss to Houston. Warriors were +9 in the 19:00 he was on the bench, -10 when he was on the floor. Thats more important than his point total.


3) There are rumors that the Big 14 is considering moving to 20 conference games next season, with the eventual goal of juicing up their teams’ power ratings so mid-majors get blocked out of at-large bids for the NCAA tournament. That would be sad, if that is the reason.


2) Baseball playoffs:
New York 5, Houston 0— Astros have scored 9 runs in five series games.


1) When you watch NBA/college games this season, consider this:


Several years ago, I was sitting at an AAU tournament talking to a college basketball coach who is very good at his job. I was asking him lot of questions, trying to pick his brain as far as what he looked for at these tournaments with mostly glorified pickup games being played.


“I look at what their college skill is” the coach said. “Some guys shoot it well, others pass it well, some rebound well. I’ll tell you this, getting loose balls is a skill, too”


So when there is a loose ball in an NBA game and the same couple guys are getting most of them, know that their toughness/quickness is what helped get them to the NBA in the first place. Its not an accident.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Dunkel


Week 8


Thursday, October 19

Memphis @ Houston


Game 303-304
October 19, 2017 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
88.532
Houston
89.239
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3
60 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Memphis
(+3); Over


LA-Lafayette @ Arkansas St


Game 305-306
October 19, 2017 @ 7:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
LA-Lafayette
72.109
Arkansas St
81.973
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arkansas St
by 10
74
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arkansas St
by 13
65
Dunkel Pick:
LA-Lafayette
(+13); Over




Friday, October 20

Western Kentucky @ Old Dominion


Game 307-308
October 20, 2017 @ 6:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Western Kentucky
80.646
Old Dominion
67.309
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Western Kentucky
by 13 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Western Kentucky
by 9 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Western Kentucky
(-9 1/2); Over


Marshall @ Middle Tennessee St


Game 309-310
October 20, 2017 @ 7:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Marshall
79.372
Middle Tennessee
79.372
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Marshall
by 5
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Marshall
by 2 1/2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Marshall
(-2 1/2); Over


Air Force @ Nevada


Game 311-312
October 20, 2017 @ 9:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Air Force
82.488
Nevada
74.077
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Air Force
by 8 1/2
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Air Force
by 5 1/2
67 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Air Force
(-5 1/2); Under


Colorado State @ New Mexico


Game 313-314
October 20, 2017 @ 10:15 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Colorado State
95.625
New Mexico
79.136
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Colorado State
by 16 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado State
by 7 1/2
60
Dunkel Pick:
Colorado State
(-7 1/2); Under


Princeton @ Harvard


Game 501-502
October 20, 2017 @ 7:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Princeton
64.419
Harvard
58.083
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Princeton
by 6 1/2
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Princeton
by 4
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Princeton
(-4); Over

 

[CNOTES]

ACC Report - Week 8
October 19, 2017


2017 ACC STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Boston College 3-4 1-3 4-3 2-5
Clemson 6-1 4-1 4-3 2-5
Duke 4-3 1-3 4-2-1 2-5
Florida State 2-3 2-2 0-3-2 0-5
Georgia Tech 3-2 2-1 5-0 1-4
Louisville 4-3 1-3 1-6 4-3
Miami (Fla.) 5-0 3-0 3-2 1-4
North Carolina 1-6 0-4 1-6 3-4
North Carolina State 6-1 4-0 3-4 3-4
Pittsburgh 2-5 0-3 1-4-2 1-5-1
Syracuse 4-3 2-1 4-2-1 1-6
Virginia 5-1 2-0 4-2 2-4
Virginia Tech 5-1 1-1 3-3 1-4-1
Wake Forest 4-2 1-2 4-1-1 2-4

Louisville at Florida State (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Cardinals and Seminoles hook up in Tallahassee, and it's a win or go home game for both. Both teams already have three losses, and a fourth loss would be unchartered territory, especially for FSU. The Cards are coming off a shocking 45-42 loss at home to Boston College, their second straight loss and fifth consecutive non-cover. FSU picked up a feel-good road win at Duke last weekend, but they're still 0-3-2 ATS overall on the season. The offense is struggling mightily behind a true freshman quarterback following the loss of Deondre Francois in their opener vs. Alabama. The 'under' has connected in each of the team's five games to date, as they're averaging an un-FSU-like 18.2 PPG on offense. Louisville shut down Murray State and Kent State in two out of conference games, but they have allowed 35 or more points in each of their four confernce tilts.


Pittsburgh at Duke (ACC Network, 12:20 p.m. ET)
The Panthers head down to Durham to battle the Blue Devils in a game between two teams desperate for a win. the Panthers have won just once in the past six outings, and they're 1-3-2 ATS during the span. The Blue Devils opened 4-0 SU/ATS in their first four outings, but they have dropped three in a row inside the conference while going 0-2-1 ATS. The 'under' has connected in five in a row for Duke, too. The under has also been a popular play for Pitt, going 4-0 in their past four on the road and 3-0-1 in their past four overall. However, the over is 8-3 across their past 11 league games and 7-2 over their past nine against teams with a winning overall mark.

Boston College at Virginia (ACC Network, 12:30 p.m. ET)
The Cavaliers are off to their best start since 2007, and they're just one win shy of becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2011. They are expected to get their win Saturday against visiting Boston College, as UVA is a seven-point favorite as of Thursday morning. B.C. will be a tough out, as they stunned Louisville on the road last weekend and won't be intimidated. The Eagles have covered four in a row, and four of their past five league games. They're also 9-4 ATS over their past 13 road games and 8-1 ATS over the past nine road outings against teams with a winning home mark. The Cavs are 4-0 ATS over their past four, too, but just 4-10-1 ATS over the past 15 at home against teams with a losing road record. The under has been hot for both, going 36-14-1 over their past 51 road games, and 37-17-2 over the past 56 league games. The under is 6-1 in UVA's past seven home games, and 19-7-1 over their past 27 conference tilts.



Syracuse at Miami-Florida (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
What can Syracuse do for an encore? They stunned Clemson last weekend by a 27-24 score, tossing a huge monkey wrench into the ACC picture and national title picture. That's what kind of weekend it was all across college football last week. Miami needed a miracle fourth-down conversion to get into the red zone and earn a last-second field goal to top Georgia Tech. As such, the Canes moved to 6-1 ATS over their past seven ACC games, 4-1 ATS over their past five against teams with a winning overall mark and 8-2 ATS over their past 10 overall. 'Cuse is 5-0 ATS across their past five against winning teams, and 3-0-1 ATS in the past four league games. The favorite has hit six of the past seven, and the Orange are 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings. The under might be the play here. The under is 9-1 in Syracuse's past 10 league games, and 16-5 over their past 21 overall. The under is 5-1 in Miami's past six, and 5-1 in their past six league games.


North Carolina at Virginia Tech (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)
The Tar Heels were expected to be a top-tier team in the ACC, but they have lost six of seven games and are already in danger of being eliminated from the bowl picture with a loss. Injuries have crushed Larry Fedora's bunch, and they find themselves a three-touchdown underdog heading to Blacksburg. Hey, for what it's worth, their only victory of the season came in the Commonwealth of Virgina, a 53-23 win at Old Dominion on Sept. 16. That was also their only coverage, as they're 1-6 ATS overall and 0-4 ATS since that victory. The 'under' is also 4-0 during the span, as their offense has wilted with inexperienced players at the skill positions and shaky offensive line play. The under is also 4-0-1 in Virginia Tech's past five home games, 13-3 in their past 16 following a bye and 20-8 over the past 28 inside the conference.

Wake Forest at Georgia Tech (ESPNU, 7:30 p.m.)
The Demon Deacons head down Interstate 85 to Atlanta to battle the Yellow Jackets. The Ramblin' Wreck should be awfully angry after letting their upset bid slip away in sloppy, wet conditions in Miami on a fluke fourth-quarter deflection and first down. The Demon Deacons are an impressive 7-1-1 ATS over their past nine conference tilts, and they're 5-1 ATS over their past six inside the conference. Wake is 8-2 ATS over the past 10 road outings, too. Georgia Tech has covered nine in a row, and they're 5-0 ATS over their past five against teams with a winning overall mark. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the past seven in this series, with the Deacs 5-2 ATS over the past seven. The under is 5-1 in the past six, too. Under bettors might love this game. The under is 17-4 in Wake's past 21 in the month of October, and 35-17 in their past 52 on the road. The under is 4-1 in Ga. Tech's past five at home, 5-0 in the past five league games and 4-1 in the past five against teams with a winning overall mark.


Bye Week
Clemson, North Carolina State

 

[CNOTES]

Big 12 Report - Week 8
October 19, 2017
By Joe Williams




2017 BIG 12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Baylor 0-6 0-3 2-4 3-3
Iowa State 4-2 2-1 5-1 3-3
Kansas 1-5 0-3 1-5 5-1
Kansas State 3-3 1-2 2-3-1 3-3
Oklahoma 5-1 2-1 3-3 4-2
Oklahoma State 5-1 2-1 4-2 4-2
Texas 3-3 2-1 4-1-1 2-4
Texas Christian 6-0 3-0 3-3 2-4
Texas Tech 4-2 1-2 5-1 3-3
West Virginia 4-2 2-1 4-2 4-1-1


Oklahoma State at Texas (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Cowboys hit the road for Austin in a tough noon time kick. The Cowboys have won back-to-back games while scoring a total of 100 points since their setback against TCU back on Sept. 23. The Cowboys offense has posted 31 or more points in each of their games, and 41 or more points in each of their first victories. Texas played well in their rivalry game against Oklahoma, coming up just short in Dallas by a 29-24 count. However, they improved to 4-0-1 ATS over the past five outings. The 'under' hit in that one, and is now 4-1 over the past five for the 'Horns. The under is also 5-0-1 in the past six meetings in Austin. Oklahoma State has covered five in a row at Texas, while the road team is 9-1 ATS in the past 10 in this series. The favorite is also 16-5 ATS in the past 21 meetings. As of early Thursday morning the Cowboys are a touchdown road favorite.


Iowa State at Texas Tech (FOX Sports 1, 12:00 p.m.)
The Cyclones really turned around their season with a win at Oklahoma, going from pushover to surprisingly tough out overnight. They blasted Kansas 45-0 last weekiend, and they've now covered five of their six games overall. Texas Tech is doing their usual thing, scoring plenty of points and not playing a lot of defense. They have managed 34 or more points in five of their six games while going 5-1 ATS. Their lone non-cover was last weekend in West Virginia, falling 46-35 as 5 1/2-point underdogs. The Red Raiders are a touchdown favorite as of Thursday morning. Total bettors might also like to know the over is 11-5 in the past 16 overall for I-State, 11-5 in their past 16 conference games and 6-1 in their past seven against teams with a winning record. The over is 14-6 in Texas Tech's past 20 at home, 13-4 in their past 17 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 in the past six inside the league.


Oklahoma at Kansas State (FOX, 4:00 p.m. ET)
The Sooners roll out to Manhattan trying to keep their playoff aspirations alive and well. There is no room for error after their stunning 38-31 loss against Iowa State two weeks ago. After opening the season 3-0 ATS, the Sooners are 0-3 ATS over their past three outings. For K-State, they started out 2-0 SU/ATS, but they have dropped three of the past four while going 0-3-1 ATS. In this series, Oklahoma has covered four in a row on the road against K-State, while the road team is 12-3-1 ATS over the past 16 meetings. The over is also 4-0 in the past four battles in Manhattan, while going 7-2 over the past nine meetings.


Kansas at Texas Christian (FOX, 8:00 p.m. ET)
The playoff-hopeful Horned Frogs look to keep on course against the lowly Jayhawks, and Vegas feels rather confident they'll do just that. TCU enters as a 39-point favorite. However, as we saw two weeks ago with Iowa State-Oklahoma, no team should be overlooked regardless of the spread. Kansas was blanked last week at Iowa State, but they have had some success on offense earlier in the season. The Jayhawks averaged 32.3 PPG over their first four outings, and the 'over' cashed in their first five outings. The under is 5-2 in the past seven home games for TCU, while going 5-1 in the past six conference tilts. The under is also 10-4 in the past 14 overall for TCU. The Jayhawks have covered five in a row in the series, while the underdog is 6-0 ATS in the past six outings. The undere is 4-1 in the past five in the series.


West Virginia at Baylor (No National TV, 8:00 p.m. ET)
The Mountaineers roll into Waco look to kick the Bears while they're down. West Virginia is an impressive 14-2 ATS over their past 16 road games against a team with a losing home record. Baylor has covered just eight of their past 26 overall, while going 7-16 ATS over the past 23 following a straight-up loss of 20 or more points. It has been a difficult season for Baylor, and it doesn't look to get any easier. West Virginia is just 1-4 ATS over the past five meetings, but that's also been when the Bears have been much, much better. West Virginia enters as just a 9 1/2-point favorite as of Thursday night. While the Bears have lost their three home games by just 6.0 PPG, outside of their impressive game against Oklahoma, those other teams were FCS Liberty and Texas-San Antonio. Not exactly the cream of the college football crop.

 

[CNOTES]

Pac-12 Report - Week 8
October 19, 2017
By Joe Williams


2017 PAC-12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Arizona 4-2 2-1 4-2 4-2
Arizona State 3-3 2-1 3-3 1-5
California 4-3 1-3 4-3 2-5
Colorado 4-3 1-3 2-5 3-4
Oregon 4-3 1-3 3-4 3-4
Oregon State 1-6 0-4 2-5 5-2
Southern California 6-1 4-1 1-6 3-4
Stanford 5-2 4-1 3-3-1 3-4
UCLA 3-3 1-2 1-5 5-1
Utah 4-2 1-2 5-0-1 2-4
Washington 6-1 3-1 4-3 2-5
Washington State 6-1 3-1 4-3 2-5


Arizona State at Utah (FOX Sports 1, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Sun Devils used an amazing defensive effort to thwart Washington and deal their playoff chances a huge blow with a 13-7 win. It was a much-needed victory, getting AZ State back to 3-3. It was the first consecutive cover for the Sun Devils, and their first real sign of defense this season. They had allowed at least 30 points in each of their first five outings. Still, the under is an impressive 5-1 for Arizona State. Under results have been popular for Utah, too, going 4-2 overall. The Utes started out 4-0 SU, but they have dropped two in a row. Overall they're an impressive 5-0-1 ATS. After Arizona State's big win, a spread anywhere from 9 1/2 to 10 1/2 looks quite large. However, they're 4-12 ATS over their past 16 road games and 17-38-2 ATS over the past 57 road games against a team with a winning home mark. Utah has an impressive 5-2-1 ATS mark over their past eight at Rice-Eccles Stadium, and they're 3-0-1 ATS over their past four league games.

Oregon at UCLA (Pac-12 Network, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Oregon hits the road for UCLA in a battle of three-loss teams. The Ducks have really struggled on the road, going 2-7-1 ATS over their past 10 away from Autzen Stadium in Eugene, and they're just 5-15-1 ATS over their past 21 games overall. The Bruins haven't been much better, going 3-8 ATS over their past 11 at the Rose Bowl, while going 8-26 ATS in their past 34 tilts in the month of October. UCLA has also failed to cover in five straight league games, and four straight overall. Oregon has covered five of their past six trips to UCLA, while going 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings overall. The under is 3-0-1 in the past four at UCLA. The Bruins haven't beaten the Ducks since 2007, dropping six straight in the series.

Southern California at Notre Dame (NBC, 7:30 p.m. ET)
In one of the marquee games of the weekend, perhaps THE marquee game, the Trojans and Irish square off in the shadows of Touchdown Jesus. The Trojans haven't had a lot of luck on the road in recent seasons, going 3-9 ATS over the past 12 away from home while going 2-6 ATS in their past eight non-conference tilts. USC is also 0-5 ATS over the past five games overall. On the flip side, Notre Dame has covered four straight non-conference games, but they're just 3-7 ATS in the past 10 against teams with a winning overall record. The favorite has cashed in five straight meetings in this series, while the home team is 4-0 ATS in the past four overall. The over is 10-4-1 in the past 15 non-conference games for USC, while going 6-2 in Notre Dame's past eight non-ACC battles.

Arizona at California (Pac-12 Network, 8:00 p.m. ET)
The Wildcats ran roughshod over UCLA last weekend, now they'll look to do the same against Cal. The Bears posted one of the most stunning victories of last weekend, topping previously unbeaten Washington State by a 37-3 count. The Wildcats have cashed in five of the past seven outings, but they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven against winning teams and 3-8 ATS in the past 11 inside the conference. The Wildcats are also 2-7 ATS over the past nine road games. For Cal, they have covered four of their past five at home. However, despite their big win last week, they're still just 6-13 ATS over their past 19 league games. They're also 3-7 ATS in the past 10 against teams with a winning overall mark. While those facts make Arizona look impressive against the number, they are 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings with Cal and 0-5 ATS in their past five trips to Berkeley.

Colorado at Washington State (ESPN, 10:45 p.m. ET)
The Cougars look to pick themselves up and dust themselves off after a stunning loss last week at Cal. It wasn't even so much that Washington State lost, but it's how they lost - a 37-3 whitewashing. Colorado has covered seven of their past nine games on the road, and they're 6-1 ATS in the past seven road outings against teams with a winning home mark. However, they have covered just once in the past six league games and they're 1-6 ATS in the past seven against a team with a winning record. Washington State hasn't been much better against winning clubs, going 2-5 ATS in the past seven against winning sides. However, they are 15-7 ATS in the past 22 inside the conference and 4-1 ATS across the past five overall. The underdog has cashed in five of the past seven meetings, and the road team is 5-2 ATS in the seven in this series.


Bye Teams
Oregon State, Stanford, Washington

 

[CNOTES]

USC's defense dealt blow before facing ND
October 19, 2017


LOS ANGELES (AP) Southern California knows what it has to do to win at No. 13 Notre Dame, but another injury will make the task that much harder.


''I think our offense is going to do what they do,'' safety Chris Hawkins said. ''I think it's up to us to stop the run.''


The No. 11 Trojans are preparing to play without starting nose tackle Josh Fatu. Coach Clay Helton said Wednesday that Fatu was not expected to be cleared from a concussion he suffered in a car accident in time to play against the Fighting Irish.


Fatu has seven tackles for loss and five sacks, ranking second on the team in both categories.


Fatu's absence leaves Brandon Pili, a freshman who will be playing in his third career game, to deal with an experienced and capable Notre Dame offensive line that has been dominant in run blocking. Notre Dame is rushing for 308 yards per game, and its per-carry average of 6.90 yards ranks third among FBS teams.


Helton liked how Pili played in a 28-27 win over Utah, especially in giving inside linebacker Cam Smith the freedom to make plays.


''He really stepped up big time for us,'' Helton said. ''He just holds the point of attack. When you have a big man holding that gap where there's two offensive linemen having to double-team, who ends up having a great game? Cam Smith. You look at 16 tackles, that means the nose tackle is doing his job.''


Still, the Utes rushed for 169 yards. Hawkins said the defense was missing assignments in the first half, but played better as the game went on. The redshirt senior understands that similar breakdowns will result in long runs by quarterback Brandon Wimbush and running back Josh Adams.


The backfield pairing essentially has Notre Dame playing option football. The defense has to focus on Adams, who has rushed for 776 yards and five touchdowns. That allows Wimbush to keep the ball for big gains. Play-action can get linebackers and the secondary to overcommit, creating chances for explosive plays in the passing game.


''He's their best player on offense to me, along with their line,'' Hawkins said of Adams. ''I expect them to get the ball to him early, try to make us honest and then try to throw some shots over our heads.''


How Wimbush plays will likely determine which team keeps its aspirations of reaching the College Football Playoff alive for another week. Wimbush has one more completion (69) than rushing attempts (68) this season, which reflects his willingness to run and the overall efficiency of the Notre Dame offense.


However, in Notre Dame's 20-19 loss to No. 3 Georgia, Wimbush completed half of his 40 pass attempts for 210 yards and had one net yard rushing.


Putting the game on Wimbush's arm would seem to be the best approach, provided USC has enough healthy defenders to take away the run game.


Outside linebacker Porter Gustin will miss his fifth consecutive game with biceps and toe injuries. Defensive lineman Rasheem Green was held out of practice as he continues to deal with a sprained ankle.


''We certainly are missing our guys, but as a coordinator you look at what they do and what we have and formulate a game plan,'' defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast said.


The level of concern is at the point that freshman defensive lineman Jay Tufele practiced with the first team. USC wants to redshirt Tufele this season, and the five-star recruit had been working on the scout team until this week.


Helton said Tufele wouldn't play against Notre Dame expect in an emergency because of injuries, but it reflects the level of concern with the depth on the defensive line.


Said Helton: ''We're a little light.''

 

[CNOTES]

Iowa State has consecutive Big 12 wins going to Texas Tech
October 19, 2017


Some things to watch during Week 8 of the Big 12 Conference, with a full slate of five games Saturday:


GAME OF THE WEEK


Iowa State (4-2, 2-1 Big 12) at Texas Tech (4-2, 1-2). Two of the Big 12's improving teams meet. The Cyclones, under second-year coach Matt Campbell, have won consecutive Big 12 games and already have their most overall wins since going 6-7 in 2012. They followed up their shocking 38-31 upset at then-No. 3 Oklahoma with a 45-0 win over Kansas , and have four wins in their last six conference games after losing the previous 10. Texas Tech was back in the Top 25 for the first time in four seasons before losing last week at West Virginia. The Red Raiders are one win shy of matching last year's overall total, and their defense has improved drastically since losing 66-10 to the Cyclones in Ames last November.

BEST MATCHUP


Oklahoma State QB Mason Rudolph throwing to WRs James Washington and Marcell Ateman vs. Texas' secondary. Rudolph is the Big 12's leading passer at 395 yards per game, with 19 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Washington leads the league with 147 yards receiving a game, and he and Ateman both have four consecutive 100-yard receiving games. The Longhorns, led by DeShon Elliott's five interceptions, have a Big 12-high nine picks. Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield hadn't thrown an interception this season until last week against the Longhorns. But Texas has also given up long TD passes to USC, Kansas State and the Sooners.


INSIDE THE NUMBERS


While No. 9 Oklahoma's overall 14-game winning streak ended with a home loss to Iowa State, the Sooners are going for their 14th consecutive true road win when they play at Kansas State. They won 55-0 two years ago in Manhattan, Kansas, where they have won six straight games by at least 10 points. ... Kansas State hasn't beaten a Top 10 team at home since 2006. ... No. 23 West Virginia is 24-24 in Big 12 games since joining the conference in 2012. The Mountaineers play at Baylor on Saturday.


LONG SHOT


Kansas (1-5, 0-3) has never beaten No. 4 TCU in Big 12 play, and the last three games have been decided by a combined 11 points . But the Jayhawks, coming off that 45-0 loss at Iowa State, are more than five-touchdown underdogs going to Fort Worth to play the league's only undefeated team - and the Big 12's top defense.


PLAYER TO WATCH


Oklahoma State sophomore RB Justice Hill took over as the Big 12 rushing leader with his third straight 100-yard rushing game last week against Kansas. He is averaging 105.5 yards per game, about 17 yards more per game than last season. He has four 100-yard games this season and 10 in his career with the Cowboys.

 

[CNOTES]

Syracuse-Miami matchup headlines ACC Week 8
October 19, 2017


Things to watch in the Atlantic Coast Conference in Week 8:


GAME OF THE WEEK: Syracuse at Miami. The eighth-ranked Hurricanes (5-0, 3-0) are the only unbeaten team remaining in the conference, using a most unlikely late rally to beat Georgia Tech . There's little chance they take Syracuse (4-3, 2-1) lightly after the Orange pulled the season's biggest upset by knocking off then-No. 2 Clemson. Miami coach Mark Richt says he ''would hope that we would be ready no matter what, but you can't deny what happened.'' Syracuse QB Eric Dungey, who ranks second in the ACC in total offense (352 ypg), figures to test a Miami defense that's fourth in the league, allowing 4.85 yards per play.


BEST MATCHUP: Boston College rushing offense vs. Virginia defense. BC freshman A.J. Dillon burst onto the scene last week, rushing for 272 yards and four touchdowns in an upset at Louisville . The Cavaliers haven't allowed more than 211 yards rushing in any game this season, and have held four of their six opponents to 168 yards rushing or fewer. Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall says his players ''have to have a stomach for contact in this kind of game.''


INSIDE THE NUMBERS: The top-heavy Atlantic Division is showing significantly more depth than in years past. In the previous three seasons, Clemson, Florida State and Louisville combined to go 36-0 against the other four teams in the division - N.C. State, Wake Forest, Boston College and Syracuse. Not this year. N.C. State knocked off the Seminoles and Cardinals before BC beat Louisville and Syracuse stunned the Tigers last week.


LONG SHOT: History suggests Pittsburgh could at least keep things close at Duke. The Panthers - eight-point underdogs - have won three of the four meetings since they joined the ACC in 2013, finding ways to beat both good and poor Duke teams. Both teams are slumping, with Pitt (2-5, 0-3) losing four of five and the Blue Devils (4-3, 1-3) dropping three in a row since their 4-0 start.


IMPACT PLAYER: Miami RB Travis Homer ran for 170 yards and two touchdowns in his first start for the Hurricanes, who lost top rusher Mark Walton to a season-ending ankle injury. In the process, he went from backup to the ninth-leading rusher in the conference. He'll try to keep going against a Syracuse run defense that held Clemson to just 113 yards rushing.

 

[CNOTES]

Kentucky trying to make push in SEC's Eastern Division
October 19, 2017


Here are some things to watch in Week 8 of the Southeastern Conference season:


GAME OF THE WEEK: Kentucky at Mississippi State. The Wildcats and Bulldogs are often afterthoughts in the SEC, but both have quietly had a solid first half of the season. Kentucky has a 5-1 record and is in second place in the Eastern Division. Mississippi State is 4-2 and undefeated at home, including a 37-7 victory over LSU on Sept. 16.


MATCHUP OF THE WEEK: Mississippi WR A.J. Brown vs. LSU's secondary. The 6-foot-1, 225-pound Brown leads the SEC in catches (35), yards receiving (678) and receiving TDs (6). He's the main target in an Ole Miss passing game that's ranked at the top of the league and among the best in the nation. No. 24 LSU will counter with a talented secondary that includes cornerbacks Donte Jackson and Greedy Williams. Williams leads the team with three interceptions.


NUMBERS GAME: No. 1 Alabama is favored by 35 + points against Tennessee. RJ Bell, the founder and CEO of Pregame.com, says Tennessee has never been that much of an underdog in any game since at least 1980. ... Tennessee hasn't scored a touchdown in its last 10 quarters. ... Kentucky's Austin MacGinnis had 16 points in a 40-34 victory over Missouri last week to increase his career total to 314 and become the Wildcats' all-time leading scorer. MacGinnis passed Lones Seiber, who scored 305 points from 2006-09. ... Mississippi State's Nick Fitzgerald had the 10th 100-yard rushing performance of his career last week in a 35-10 rout of BYU. That's the highest total ever for a Mississippi State quarterback. Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys had nine 100-yard rushing efforts during his Mississippi State career. ... LSU has won 20 of the last 21 times it has scored at least 20 points, the lone exception being a 24-21 loss to Troy on Sept. 30. ... Ole Miss posted its second-highest point total ever in an SEC game last week as the Rebels blasted Vanderbilt 57-35. The Rebels beat Vanderbilt 63-28 in 1979.


UPSET WATCH: It's surprising to see Mississippi State favored by 11 + points over Kentucky since the two teams have similar records and their matchup last season went down to the final play. Kentucky should at least manage to keep this game at a single-digit margin.


IMPACT PERFORMER: Alabama running back Damien Harris needed just nine carries to run for 125 yards last week in a 41-9 blowout of Arkansas. He has delivered 75-yard touchdown runs in each of his last two games. Harris has rushed for 625 yards this season on only 68 carries to average 9.2 yards per attempt.

 

[CNOTES]

No. 19 Michigan seeks big upset of No. 2 Penn State
October 19, 2017


Some things to watch during Week 8 of Big Ten play, with 12 teams in action:


GAME OF THE WEEK


No. 19 Michigan (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) at No. 2 Penn State (6-0, 3-0). Forget the playoffs. If Michigan wants to remain a factor in the East division race, it'll almost certainly have to upset the Nittany Lions on the road on Saturday night in Happy Valley. The Wolverines have slipped to fourth in the division, and No. 6 Ohio State remains on their schedule. Penn State features the league's stingiest defense at just nine points allowed per game, while Michigan's middling offense (27.2 points per game) is slotted between Northwestern and Purdue.


BEST MATCHUP


Michigan's front vs. Penn State RB Saquon Barkley. The Wolverines have made life miserable for opposing rushing attacks, allowing just 85.8 yards per game on just 2.6 yards a carry. Barkley is arguably the best back in America and a front-runner for the Heisman Trophy, but if Michigan can keep him under wraps, it has a shot. The problem, of course, is that Nittany Lions quarterback Trace McSorley leads the league in passing yards.


INSIDE THE NUMBERS

Penn State and fifth-ranked Wisconsin are two of just eight FBS teams still unbeaten. The Nittany Lions are 6-0 for the first time since 2008. ... Both Michigan and Ohio State won their 500th Big Ten games last week. The Wolverines improved to 500-203-18 in conference games, while the Buckeyes are 500-173-24. ...Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor ranks third in the country with 164.3 yards rushing per game.

LONG SHOT

Maryland (3-3, 1-2) vs. Wisconsin (6-0, 3-0). The Terrapins are coming off a 16-point loss at home to Northwestern (3-3, 1-2). The unbeaten Badgers held off Purdue 17-9 last week, but just one of their six opponents has scored more than 17 points.

PLAYER TO WATCH


Maryland WR D.J. Moore. He had the best game of his season last week against Northwestern, hauling in 12 passes for 210 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

 

[CNOTES]

Georgia, Alabama stand out in SEC
October 18, 2017


GAINESVILLE, Fla. (AP) The Southeastern Conference has produced upsets, letdowns, blowouts and frantic finishes - and it's only the midway point of the season.


There have been surprises, disappointments and the usual dominance from top-ranked Alabama.


The Tide and No. 3 Georgia are the league's only unbeaten teams and remain popular picks to reach the SEC championship game in early December. Both teams were well represented in midseason voting by Associated Press writers who cover the 14 SEC schools in 11 states.


The results in several categories:


---

Coach of the Year: Georgia's Kirby Smart.


Smart has the Bulldogs rolling, notching impressive win after impressive win. And he's not just doing it with defense. In his second season at his alma mater after spending more than a decade working under Nick Saban, Smart has quickly built the Bulldogs into Alabama 2.0. They are recruiting near the top of the league, dominating on both sides of the ball and raising the bar in the watered-down Eastern Division. He has several huge games remaining, beginning next week against rival Florida in Jacksonville, Florida, and continuing two weeks later at Auburn.


Also receiving votes: Saban.


---

Offensive Player of the Year: Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts.


Hurts has accounted for 14 touchdowns in seven games: eight passing and six rushing. He ranks second on the Tide with 558 yards on the ground, including three 100-yard games. Although he has topped 200 yards passing just once, against Colorado State, he's doing a much better job of protecting the football. After throwing nine interceptions in 15 games as a freshman in 2016, Hurts has just one this season.


Also receiving votes: Georgia running back Nick Chubb, Alabama running back Damien Harris and Auburn running back Kerryon Johnson.


---


Defensive Player of the Year: Alabama cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick.


It's hard to stand out on a defense filled with talent, but Fitzpatrick has this season. He's the leader of the SEC's top unit, which has held opponents to single digits in four of seven games. Fitzpatrick plays his position ''as well as anybody I ever coached,'' Saban said. He has 32 tackles, including 4 1/2 tackles for loss, and five pass breakups. He also has an interception, a blocked kick and a forced fumble.


Also receiving votes: LSU cornerback Donte Jackson, Alabama defensive lineman Da'Ron Payne, Georgia linebacker Roquan Smith and LSU linebacker Devin White.


---


Freshman of the Year: Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm.


Fromm replaced injured starter Jacob Eason in the season opener and has played well enough since that no one expects the Bulldogs to make a change now that Eason is healthy. Fromm has completed 60 percent of his passes for 836 yards, with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. He also has two rushing scores. Smart said playing a freshman at the all-important position begins with patience and preparation.


''Allow them to grow and develop and teaching him,'' Smart said. ''You don't want to paralyze them with information, but you can't be too simple with the defenses in this league. You have to get better in each game.''


Also receiving votes: Florida running back Malik Davis, Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond and LSU cornerback Andraez Williams.


---


Most Surprising Team: Georgia.


Even though the Bulldogs were the preseason favorite to win the East, few expected them to have four lopsided victories through four SEC games. Beating Mississippi State 31-3 raised eyebrows. Thumping Tennessee 41-0 on the road made it clear Georgia was no fluke. The last two wins - 41-14 at Vanderbilt and 53-28 against Missouri - simply reinforced outside beliefs that the Bulldogs can play with anyone - maybe even Alabama.


''When you see the scores and the point differential and what looks like really lights-out defensive play, that's what champions are built of,'' former Georgia coach and current Miami coach Mark Richt said.


Also receiving votes: Auburn, Kentucky and South Carolina.


---


Most Surprising Player: Vanderbilt quarterback Kyle Shurmur.


The son of Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, Kyle Shurmur has been one of a few bright spots for the Commodores. Although he looked overmatched against Alabama, he's been better since. He has completed 55 percent of his passes for 1,331 yards, with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions. Only Hurts has a better touchdown-to-interception ratio in the league.


Also receiving votes: Tennessee running back John Kelly, Georgia cornerback J.R. Reed and Alabama cornerback Levi Wallace.


---


Most Disappointing Team: Tennessee.


No surprise here. The Volunteers have been the talk of college football much of the year, from the garbage can on the sideline to the team's play on the field and to coach Butch Jones' future. It could get worse, too. Tennessee travels to Alabama on Saturday.


Also receiving votes: Florida.


---


Most Disappointing Player (s): LSU running back Derrius Guice and LSU linebacker Arden Key.

Tie goes to LSU. Guice and Key have been equally disappointing for the Tigers this season. At times last year, Guice was just as effective as Leonard Fournette. But Guice ranks 12th in the league in rushing in 2017, averaging 4.3 yards a carry and scoring five touchdowns. Key, widely considered a first-round NFL talent, has been slow to fully recover from offseason shoulder surgery. He did, however, have his best game in LSU's victory against Auburn last week. He finished with six tackles, including a sack that sealed the victory.


Also receiving votes: Arkansas quarterback Austin Allen and Florida quarterback Feleipe Franks.

 

[CNOTES]

CFB Aug/Sept Best Bets: ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )
BEST BETS & OPINIONS


Aug/SeptTotals:.......154 - 145 - 9.....51.50%....-27.50


Best Bets:*****
Best Bets :........................ATS............TOTALS.... .............O/U................TOTALS


Aug/Sept Totals:...........41 -33 - 2...........+30.50...............13 - 18.............- 25.50


********************************


CFB Ocotber's Best Bets & Opinions ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )


DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


10/14/2017 36-24-0 60.00% +48.00
10/13/2017 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50
10/12/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/11/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/07/2017 19-32-1 36.73% -80.50
10/06/2017 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50
10/05/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/04/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50


Total..............61 - 61........50.00%.....- 5.00




Best Bets:*****
Best Bets :........................ATS............TOTALS.... .............O/U................TOTALS


10/14/2017.....................16- 9.............+30.50.................1 - 1.................-0.50
10/13/2017......................2 - 0.............+10.00.................1 - 1.................-0.50
10/11/2017......................0 - 1..............-5.50...................0 - 1.................-5.50
10/07/2017.....................11 - 15..........- 27.50..................0 - 3................-16.50
10/06/2017......................2 - 1.............+1.75...................3 - 1................+9.50
10/05/2017......................1 - 0.............+5.00...................1 - 0................+5.00
10/04/2017......................0 - 1..............-5.50...................1 - 0................+5.00


Totals..............................32 - 27...........+8.75.................7 - 7.................-3.50


Thurs. Night Parlay: 1Cnote pays 10Cnotes
1. ULL +12
2. Ove 66
3. Memphis +2.5
4. Over 61.5................................0 - 0...............................????








THURSDAY, OCTOBER 19


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


ULL at ARST 07:30 PM


ULL +12.0 *****


O 66.0 ******


MEM at HOU 08:00 PM


MEM +2.5 *****


O 61.5 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Rolland-Jones adds to sack record, Arkansas St tops ULL 47-3
October 19, 2017


JONESBORO, Ark. (AP) Justice Hansen had 396 total yards and three touchdowns, Ja'Von Rolland-Jones added to his career Sun Belt record with 2 1/2 sacks, and Arkansas State beat Louisiana 47-3 on Thursday night.


Rolland-Jones forced a fumble on Louisiana's third offensive play of the game and Caleb Caston returned it 24 yards for a 7-0 lead. Rolland-Jones, the NCAA's active FBS leader with 36 career sacks, needs eight more sacks to tie former Arizona State star Terrell Suggs' FBS record.


Hansen passed for 275 yards and two TDS, rushed for a career-high 121 yards and a score, and caught a pass for 34 yards to lead Arkansas State (4-2, 3-0).


Back-to-back plays of 33-plus yards, including a double pass, on Arkansas State's first offensive possession led to Johnston White's 26th career rushing touchdown for a 14-0 lead.


Justin McInnis caught a short pass and raced untouched for a 44-yard touchdown to extend the lead to 21-3.


Hansen broke several tackles near the end zone for a 20-yard touchdown run to make it 27-3 and his fake spike in the final seconds before halftime set up McInnis' 6-yard TD grab for a 34-3 advantage.


Louisiana (3-4, 2-2) got on the board with Stevie Artigue's 51-yard field goal in the first quarter.


***************************


Ferguson, Taylor lift Memphis past Houston
October 19, 2017


HOUSTON (AP) Riley Ferguson threw for 471 yards and had a 21-yard TD pass with 1:28 left, Patrick Taylor rushed for a career-high four touchdowns and No. 25 Memphis overcame a 17-point deficit to beat Houston 42-38 on Thursday night.


Ferguson was 33 of 53 and found Sean Dykes to cap an 8-play, 80-yard drive that took 1:49 to give Memphis (6-1, 3-1 American) its only lead. Anthony Miller caught 10 passes for 178 yards, and Tony Pollard had nine catches for 91 yards.


Memphis finished with 501 yards.


Houston (4-3, 2-2) was driving when Kyle Postma fumbled at the Memphis 49, with T.J. Carter recovering with a minute remaining. After Memphis punted, Postma's pass was intercepted by Carter with 24 seconds remaining to end the game.


Dillon Birden finished with 126 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries, and Duke Catalon rushed for 65 yards and a career-high three touchdowns as Houston built a 17-0 lead at the half.


The Cougars led 38-28 with 6:44 left after Postma found Steven Dunbar for an 8-yard touchdown pass. Taylor cut the lead to three with a 5-yard run with 5:14 left. After Memphis forced a Houston three-and-out, Ferguson capped the comeback.


Postma finished 29 of 40 for 315 yards, and Linell Bonner caught eight passes for 121 yards for Houston. The Cougars had 554 yards.

POLL IMPLICATIONS


Memphis: The Tigers should remain ranked for another week and could rise in the rankings following the comeback win.

THE TAKEAWAY


Memphis: The Tigers were out of sync offensively and couldn't complete drives in the first half, going scoreless in the first half for the first time since 2012. Memphis made adjustments at the half and looked much sharper in all three phases in the second half to complete the come back.


Houston: The Cougars proved again they are able to get up for big games against ranked foes, but were unable to play a complete game. After allowing 38 second half points last week against Tulsa, Houston allowed 42 points in the second half Thursday.

UP NEXT


Memphis: The Tigers host Tulane Oct. 27 in the second of three consecutive non-Saturday games.


Houston: Travels to No. 16 South Florida on Oct. 28 for a game that was originally scheduled for Nov. 4 but was moved up to accommodate other schedule changes in the American following Hurricane Irma.

 

[CNOTES]

Friday’s six-pack


More NFL trends with Week 7 upon us……..


— Saints are 11-2 vs spread in last 13 games away from home.


— Minnesota is 15-5 vs spread in last 20 home games.


— 49ers covered six of their last eight games.


— Miami is 12-32-1 in last 45 games as a home favorite.


— Washington is 16-8 vs spread in its last 24 games.


— Buffalo is 8-4 vs spread coming off its last 12 byes.


**************************


Friday’s List of 13: Things I’m looking for this weekend


13) How tired are the Falcons of hearing about last year’s Super Bowl? Now they get to visit Foxboro the week after blowing a 17-0 halftime lead to Miami. Matt Ryan went to Boston College, so a homecoming of sorts for him.


12) Michigan beat Penn State 49-10 last year; Wolverines are 5-1, but it is a shaky 5-1 and they are playing a backup QB- they needed OT to beat Indiana last week.


11) Brett Hundley gets his first NFL start at home against New Orleans; no pressure, replacing Aaron Rodgers �� Saints are actually a road favorite in this game.


10) Arizona Wildcats ran ball for 882 yards in their last two games; now they’re a road favorite at Cal— Golden Bears upset Washington State last week. Interesting game.


9) First round of rematches this weekend, three of them. Can the Jets sweep Miami? Eagles sweep Washington? Denver sweep the Chargers?


8) USC-Notre Dame is a stellar primetime game Saturday night. Trojans lost their last two visits to South Bend.


7) Cardinals-Rams in England is a big game in NFC West; Adrian Peterson added a running element to the Arizona offense last week. Both teams are a LONG way from home.


6) Think the boosters in Knoxville are happy that Tennessee is a 35-point underdog this week in Tuscaloosa? Hopefully Butch Jones has his resume updated, because he is going to need a job in a few weeks. His bank account will be healthy, though.


5) Giants got their first win last week, now Seattle visits Swamp Stadium coming off its bye. Giants’ young WR’s will have hard time getting open against a stingy Seahawk defense.


4) Texas is 3-3, losing to USC/Oklahoma by total of 8 points; now Oklahoma State comes calling, another tough game. State scored 48 ppg in winning its first three road games this year.


3) Jacksonville is +11 in turnovers in its wins, -1 in its losses; they have a very winnable game in Indy against a Colt team that might be without Andrew Luck for the whole season now. Jacoby Brissett hasn’t played badly, but Indy has been outscored 85-22 in the 4th quarter this year.


2) Louisville beat Florida State 63-20 LY, but Cardinals lost their last two games, allowing 84 points. Seminoles are struggling (2-3) with a true freshman QB who is skinny as hell- their only two wins are over Wake Forest/Duke.


1) Trap game for the Titans, a road game after a Monday night win. Winless Browns are going back to DeShone Kizer at QB; maybe they should’ve drafted Deshaun Watson. Ya think?

 

[CNOTES]

Friday's Tip Sheet
October 19, 2017


Gamblers have four games on college football’s Friday night menu in Week 8. Let’s break down a Conference USA matchup and a Mountain West contest before hitting on the other two games and much more in Bonus Nuggets.


**Marshall at Middle Tennessee**


-- As of early Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Marshall (5-1 straight up, 5-1 against the spread) installed as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 49 or 49.5. The Blue Raiders were +120 or +125 on the money line at most spots.


-- Marshall is in a first-place tie with Florida Atlantic atop the C-USA East Division standings, as both schools are sporting 2-0 records in league play. Doc Holliday’s program won 10, 13 and 10 games from 2013-2015, only to slump to a 3-9 mark last season. Well, the Thundering Herd can double last year’s win total with a victory Friday night in Murfreesboro.


-- Marshall has captured wins vs. Miami (OH.) (31-26), vs. Kent State (21-0), at Cincinnati (38-21), at Charlotte (14-3) and vs. Old Dominion (35-3). The Herd took its lone defeat at N.C. State by a 37-20 count in Week 2. Nevertheless, they took the cash as 21-point underdogs.


-- Marshall won its fourth consecutive game last week by trouncing ODU and easily covering the number as a 12.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The 38 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 48.5-point tally, providing Marshall with its third ‘under’ in its last four outings. Junior quarterback Chase Litton completed 12-of-23 passes for 176 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Freshman RB Tyler King rushed for a team-best 77 yards and one TD on 13 carries, while Keion Davis produced 73 yards on the ground on 16 attempts. Junior Tyre Brady, a transfer from Miami, had five receptions for 76 yards and two TDs.


-- For the season, Litton has completed 60.2 percent of his throws for 1,382 yards with a 13/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has also run for one TD. After sitting out the 2016 campaign due to transfer rules, Brady has emerged as Litton’s favorite target. The junior wideout has a team-high 34 catches for 571 yards and six TDs. Marcel Williams has 23 receptions for 236 yards and one TD, while Ryan Yurachek has 25 grabs for 229 yards and four TDs.


-- Davis, the junior RB who ran for 469 yards and six scores last year, has shared the bulk of the rushing load with King through six games. Davis has rushed for 393 yards and one TD with a 5.0 yards-per-carry average. King has 277 rushing yards and two TDs while averaging 4.9 YPC.


-- Marshall is ranked 10th in the nation in scoring defense (15.0 points per game) and 24th in total defense. This unit is led by junior LB Chase Hancock, who has recorded a team-high 55 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, one sack, four passes broken up and two QB hurries. Sophomore DB Malik Gant has 48 tackles, four TFL’s and three PBU.


-- Marshall is 2-1 both SU and ATS on the road this season. However, the Herd failed to cover the number in its only road ‘chalk’ spot, a 14-3 win at Charlotte two weeks ago as a 14-point favorite. During Holliday’s eight-year tenure, Marshall has limped to a 7-14-2 spread record in 23 games as a road favorite.


-- Middle Tennessee (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) has been forced to play most of its season without its two best players, QB Brent Stockstill and WR Richie James. Before injuring his shoulder in the Blue Raiders’ 10th game of 2016, Stockstill threw for 3,233 yards with a 31/7 TD-INT ratio. James earned third-team All-American honors last year by producing 105 receptions for 1,625 yards and 12 TDs. But Stockstill sustained a cracked sternum and broken collarbone in a 30-23 Week 2 win at Syracuse. His father, head coach Rick Stockstill, ruled him ‘out’ vs. Marshall at Monday’s presser. Brent will miss his sixth straight game, but his father confirmed Monday that he does indeed expect his son to return at some points this season. James missed three games with a high-ankle sprain before returning to the field last weekend.


-- Stockstill completed 40-of-67 passes (59.7%) for 435 yards and four TDs with two interceptions before going down this year. James had made 18 receptions for 208 yards and two TDs in the first two games. He was injured early in the first half of a 34-3 loss at Minnesota in Week 3, but he had seven catches for 47 yards in his return at UAB last week. James also had 16 rushing yards on three attempts. For the season, James has 26 catches for 253 yards and two TDs. He has produced 388 all-purpose yards on 43 touches.

-- Middle Tennessee dropped a 25-23 decision to the Blazers at Legion Field in Birmingham, losing outright as a 4.5-point road favorite. Sophomore QB John Urzua connected on 23-of-42 passes for 268 yards with one TD pass, but he was intercepted twice. Brad Anderson rushed 15 times for 81 yards, and he also brought down nine catches for 137 yards and one TD.


-- Anderson has rushed for a team-best 367 yards with a 6.0 YPC average. The true freshman also has 28 catches for 303 yards and three TDs. He has a pair of 100-yard efforts to his credit, rushing for 104 yards vs. Bowling Green and 112 yards vs. FIU.


-- Middle Tennessee has wins at Syracuse (30-23), vs. Bowling Green (24-13) and vs. Florida International (37-17). The Blue Raiders defeats have come vs. Vandy (28-6), at Minnesota (34-3), at Florida Atlantic (38-20) and at UAB, as previously noted. They’re 2-1 both SU and ATS in three home games. The loss came in their lone spot as home ‘dogs this year (+3) vs. the Commodores. During Stockstill’s 12-year tenure, Middle Tennessee owns a 5-9 spread record in 14 games as a home underdog.


-- As a redshirt freshman in ’16, Urzua completed 59.5 percent of his passes for 816 yards with an 8/8 TD-INT ratio. He actually made his first career start at Marshall, finding 25 of his targets on 37 pass attempts for 220 yards and one TD, but he was intercepted twice in a 42-17 loss. So far this season, Urzua has connected on 64.2 percent of his throws for 1,302 yards with a 6/8 TD-INT ratio. Ty Lee has been his favorite target. The true sophomore garnered Freshman All-American honors in ’16 when he had 63 receptions for 699 and nine TDs, in addition to 107 rushing yards and one TD on just six attempts. Lee has 39 catches for 436 yards and three TDs through seven games this year. He’s also rushed for 109 yards and one TD on 35 totes.


-- Without Stockstill for five games and James for three, it’s been a struggle for the Middle Tennessee offense. This unit is ranked No. 115 of 130 FBS teams in points scored with a meager 20.4 PPG average. The Blue Raiders are ranked No. 110 in rushing offense.


-- Totals have been an overall wash (3-3) for Marshall, but the ‘over’ is 2-1 in its three previous road assignments. The Herd has seen its games average combined scores of 41.5 PPG.


-- The ‘under’ is 6-0-1 for Middle Tennessee, 2-0-1 in its home games. The Blue Raiders have seen their games average combined scores of 45.9 PPG.


-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

**Colorado State at New Mexico**


-- As of early Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Colorado State (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) listed as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 58.5. The Lobos were +245 on the money line (risk $100 to win $245).


-- Colorado State is atop of Mountain West Conference’s Mountain Division standings with a one-half game lead over both Wyoming and Boise St., both of whom are 2-0 in league play. CSU owns a 3-0 record in MWC games.


-- CSU has won three in a row since losing 41-23 at Alabama in Week 3, but its three-game winning streak ATS was snapped in last week’s 44-42 win over Nevada as a 25-point home favorite. The 86 combined points soared ‘over’ the 65.5-point total. The Rams jumped out to a 14-0 lead, but the Wolf Pack kept answering, tying the score three times at 14-14, 21-21 and 28-28. Nevada took its first lead (35-28) on a 65-yard TD pass from Ty Gangi to Wyatt Demps with 9:04 left in the third quarter. After CSU countered with a field goal, Gangi found Brendan O’Leary-Orange for a 55-yard scoring strike to give the Wolf Pack a 42-31 advantage with 3:13 remaining in the third. CSU’s Dalyn Dawkins ripped off a 59-yard TD run on his team’s next possession, and Nick Stevens hooked up with Michael Gallup on a 17-yard TD pass to close out the scoring with 12:08 left. Stevens hit 26-of-37 pass attempts for 384 yards and four TDs without an interception. Dawkins ran for 191 yards and one TD on just 17 attempts, while Gallup hauled in 13 receptions for 263 yards and three TDs.


-- CSU has collected wins vs. Oregon State (58-27), vs. Abilene Christian (38-10), at Hawaii (51-21), at Utah State (27-14) and vs. Nevada. The defeats have come vs. Colorado (17-3 in Denver) and at Alabama (41-23).


-- CSU is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS on the road this year, going 2-0 ATS in a pair of road ‘chalk’ situations. The Rams are 4-2 ATS in six games as road favorites during Mike Bobo’s three-year tenure. Bobo played at Georgia in the 1990s and then served as offensive coordinator on Mark Richt’s UGA staff for eights years. He was on that UGA staff for a total of 14 season before accepting his first head-coaching gig in Ft. Collins.


-- For the season, Stevens has completed 63.8 percent of his passes for 2,260 yards with an 18/6 TD-INT ratio. The senior signal caller has rushed for 77 yards and one TD on 20 attempts. Gallup leads the nation in receiving yards (948) and is second in receptions with 59. He has five TD catches. Dawkins has rushed for 684 yards and four TDs with a 6.5 YPC average. Izzy Matthews has 419 yards rushing and five TDs, averaging 4.9 YPC. Both players can catch it coming out of the backfield as well. Dawkins has 12 receptions for 151 yards and one TD, while Matthews has 11 catches for 118 yards and one TD. Detrich Clark is Stevens’s second-favorite target. The senior WR has 27 grabs for 355 yards and four TDs.


-- CSU is ranked ninth in the nation in total offense and 12th in passing yards. The Rams are scoring at a 34.9 PPG clip. On the flip side, they are struggling mightily on the other side of the ball. CSU is 94th in the country in total defense, giving up 418.7 yards per game. Even worse, the Rams are ranked No. 124 out of 130 FBS teams at defending the pass.


-- New Mexico (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) has won two of its three home games, but it is 1-2 versus the number in those contests. Bob Davie’s team captured its wins vs. Abilene Christian (38-14), at Tulsa (16-13) and vs. Air Force (56-38). The Lobos’ defeats have come vs. New Mexico State (30-28), at Boise State (28-14) and at Fresno State (38-0).


-- UNM is off its worst outing of the season last week, as it was dealt woodshed treatment by the Bulldogs despite having two weeks to prepare of the MWC showdown. The Lobos were clobbered by Fresno State as 2.5-point road ‘chalk.’


-- New Mexico had covered the number in three straight before its ill-fated trip to Fresno. In the win over Air Force two weeks ago, UNM trailed 21-14 at intermission before outscoring the Falcons 21-3 in the third quarter. Richard McQuarley’s five-yard TD run with 14:25 remaining in the fourth put his team up 42-24 and the Lobos coasted from there. Senior QB Lamar Jordan completed 4-of-9 passes for 146 yards and two TDs without an interception. He also ran for 68 yards on 10 attempts. McQuarley, who is listed as ‘questionable’ vs. CSU due to a wrist injury, torched Air Force for 179 rushing yards and five TDs on just 11 carries.


-- Davie has used three QBs this year. In addition to Jordan, redshirt freshman Tevaka Tuioti and junior Coltin Gerhart have seen significant playing time. However, Gerhart hasn’t played since the Week 4 win at Tulsa due to a shoulder injury that him listed as ‘questionable’ vs. CSU. Jordan has connected on 28-of-53 passes (52.8%) for 487 yards with a 3/2 TD-INT ratio. He has also run for 132 yards with a 3.9 YPC average. Tuioti has connected on 24-of-44 throws (54.5%) for 360 yards with a 2/1 TD-INT ratio. He the running threat that Jordan Gerhart are, evidenced by his 22 rushing yards on only seven totes. Gerhart has completed 16-of-27 passes (59.3%) for 175 yards with one TD pass and a pair of interceptions. He has 205 rushing yards and one TD with a 6.4 YPC average.


-- McQuarley averaged 3.6 YPC or less in each of the team’s first four games before exploding against Air Force. He was held to 20 rushing yards on five carries at Fresno State last week. Nevertheless, he has run for a team-best 321 yards and five TDs with a 5.7 YPC average. Tyrone Owens is UNM’s second-leading rusher with 276 yards, two TDs and a 4.4 YPC average. The Lobos don’t pass much but when they do, there are three main targets. Delane Hart-Johnson has 10 receptions for 248 yards and one TD, while Chris Davis Jr. has 18 catches for 222 yards and one TD. Jay Griffin IV has 12 grabs for 222 yards and a team-best three TDs.


-- CSU has won seven straight head-to-head meetings with UNM, posting a 5-1-1 spread record in those contests. The Rams covered for the fourth consecutive time in this rivalry with last season’s 49-31 win as seven-point home favorites. Stevens threw two TD passes without an interception and also ran for a pair of scores. Matthews had 107 rushing yards and one TD on 14 carries, while Dawkins ran for 102 yards on merely 10 attempts. Gallup had five receptions for 116 yards and one TD. The ‘over’ has hit in three of the last four encounters, easily cashing last year with the 80 combined points flying ‘over’ the 61.5-point tally.


-- The ‘over’ is 4-3 overall for CSU, 2-1 in its three true road assignments. The Rams have seen their games average combined scores of 59.4 PPG.


-- The ‘under’ is 5-1 overall for the Lobos, 2-1 in their home games. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 52.2 PPG.


-- ESPN2 will provide the telecast during the ‘feel-good hours’ starting at 10:15 p.m. Eastern.


**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**


-- The earliest of the Friday games is a 6:00 p.m. Eastern kick on the CBS Sports Network. This is a C-USA matchup with Old Dominion hosting Western Kentucky. As of early Thursday afternoon, the Hilltoppers were favored by 10 points with a total of 47.5. ODU was +300 on the money line. Western Ky. won back-to-back C-USA titles and collected 23 victories in the final two years of Jeff Brohm’s three-year tenure. When Brohm bolted to take the Purdue job, Mike Sanford Jr. was named as his successor. WKU (4-2 SU, 1-4-1 ATS) has won three in a row, but it didn’t pick up its first spread cover until last week’s 45-14 win over Charlotte as an 18-point home favorite. The Hilltoppers are 0-2 ATS on the road this season and 0-3 versus the number in three games as double-digit favorites. They’ve seen the ‘under’ go 4-2 overall, 2-0 in their road outings. Since starting 2-0 with a home win over Albany (31-17) and a 17-7 triumph at UMass, ODU(2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS) has dropped four consecutive games by margins of 30, 38, 30 and 32 points. The ‘under’ is 4-2 overall for the Monarchs, but the ‘over’ is 2-1 in their home contests.


-- In another MWC affair, Air Force is favored by seven points at Nevada for a 9:30 p.m. Eastern kickoff in Reno on the CBS Sports Network. The Falcons have been horrible in the first half and fantastic in the second half of their last two games. Trailing 28-10 at Navy to start the third quarter two weeks ago, they rallied to take the lead 45-41 late in the fourth quarter. However, the Midshipmen got a TD pass late in the final stanza to win a 48-45 decision, although Air Forced covered the spread as an 8.5-point underdog. Then at home last week vs. UNLV, Air Force faced a 27-7 deficit at halftime. When I noticed the surprising score at intermission, I quickly checked the second-half line that had the Falcons only favored by 4.5 points (+15.5 adjusted since they trailed by 20, which was 25.5 points of value compared to closing line of -10). I pounced and cashed an easy winner when Troy Calhoun’s team rallied to win outright by a 34-30 count. The win over the Rebels snapped a four-game losing streak for Air Force, which is 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS. The ‘over’ is 4-2 overall for the Falcons, 2-1 in their road games. Nevada (1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS) lost its first five games and the four defeats against FBS foes (it lost 30-28 to FCS opponent, Idaho St.) came by margins of 11 points or more. Jay Norvell’s squad picked up its first win two weeks ago vs. Hawaii by a 35-21 count. The Wolf Pack won outright as a five-point home underdog. Then last week as noted above, they easily covered (by 23 points) in the 44-42 setback at CSU. The ‘under’ cashed in Nevada’s first four games, but the ‘over’ is 2-1 in its last three contests.


-- Washington State won’t have its top WR for Saturday’s home game vs. Colorado. Sophomore Tavares Martin was given a one-game suspension for a violation of team rules. Martin has 37 receptions for 502 yards and seven TDs. His seven TD grabs is the third-most nationally. Martin’s father told the Seattle Times that his son was disciplined for “immature behavior” and a “selfish attitude,” but he has apologized to head coach Mike Leach and his teammates.


-- Sportsbook.ag’s updated odds to win the College Football Playoff have Alabama as the -110 favorite. The next-shortest odds belong to Ohio State (+475, risk $100 to win $475), Penn State (10/1), Clemson (10/1), Georgia (12/1) and Wisconsin (18/1).


-- West Virginia is getting zero love in the this week’s updated Games of the Year spreads. I like WVU in all four games in which it’s listed: +7 vs. Oklahoma St., +3 at Kansas St., -1.5 vs. Texas and +17 at Oklahoma. I believe the Mountaineers are extremely undervalued, as I have them No. 13 in my Power Rankings this week.


-- Sportsbook.ag has Ohio State as a nine-point home favorite next week vs. Penn State. Also, Georgia is a 13.5-point favorite for its showdown vs. Florida in Jacksonville. The Bulldogs haven't beaten UF by 14 points or more since a 37-17 victory in 1997 when Robert Edwards ran for four TDs.