Saturday's SEC Tips
October 13, 2017
Before perusing the SEC slate in Week 7, here are my rankings for the conference:
1-Alabama
2-Georgia
3-Auburn
4-Texas A&M
5-LSU
6-South Carolina
7-Florida
8-Mississippi State
9-Kentucky
10-Vanderbilt
11-Tennessee
12-Arkansas
13-Ole Miss
14-Missouri
South Carolina (4-2 straight up, 3-2-1 against the spread) will travel to Knoxville to take on Tennessee at noon Eastern on ESPN. As of late Friday afternoon, most books had the Volunteers installed as 3.5-point favorites with a total of 47.5. The Gamecocks were +145 on the money line (risk $100 to win $145).
Will Muschamp has beaten Butch Jones in all three head-to-head matchups between the two head coaches, including last year’s 24-21 win as a 13.5-point home underdog at Williams-Brice Stadium. Jake Bentley, a true freshman at the time making his second career start, completed 15-of-20 passes for 167 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Rico Dowdle, another true freshman, rushed for 127 yards and one TD on 27 attempts. The win for USC snapped a three-game losing streak in the rivalry.
South Carolina is 2-2 in SEC play after capturing a 48-22 win over Arkansas last week as a three-point home underdog. The 70 combined points soared ‘over’ the 45.5-point total. The Gamecocks scored three defensive TDs in the second half, including a 34-yard pick-six by fifth-year senior LB Skai Moore that extended USC’s lead to 27-10 midway through the third quarter.
Bentley connected on 16-of-31 throws for 199 yards and three TDs without a pick. Dowdle rushed for a team-best 61 yards on 11 carries. Hayden Hurst had two receptions for 76 yards, including a 62-yard TD catch. Bryan Edwards had two grabs for 20 yards, including an 18-yard TD reception with four seconds left in the first half.
For the season, Bentley has completed 60.6 percent of his passes for 1,456 yards with a 12/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The sophomore has a 21/8 TD-INT ratio in 13 career starts. Ty’Son Williams, a transfer from North Carolina who sat out the 2016 campaign, has run for a team-best 281 yards and one TD while averaging 5.7 yards per carry.
Star junior WR Deebo Samuel was playing like a first-team All-American in USC’s first three games. He had scored six TDs before breaking his leg in the second half of a 23-13 home loss to Kentucky. With Samuel sidelined, Edwards and Hurst are Bentley’s main targets. Edwards, yet another true sophomore, has 27 receptions for 357 yards and one TD, while Hurst has 19 catches for 297 yards and two TDs.
South Carolina defeated Arkansas without three starting offensive linemen in uniform. Junior OT Malik Young is ‘out’ again this week, but Muschamp is optimistic that junior OT Zack Bailey and senior OG Cory Helms will play. Both are ‘questionable’ and will likely be game-time decisions.
USC is 1-0-1 ATS as a road underdog this year, 3-0-1 with three outright wins in four games as a ‘dog this season (regardless of the venue). Meanwhile, Tennessee has compiled a 10-14 spread record in 24 games as a home favorite during Butch Jones’s five-year tenure.
Tennessee (3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS) has had two weeks to prepare for USC, but it lost another player during the open date. Sophomore DE Darrell Taylor was suspended indefinitely after reportedly kicking a teammate in the face at practice. In UT’s first five games, Taylor had 20 tackles, one sack, one TFL, one QB hurry, one forced fumble and one PBU. The defense is already without its three projected starting LBs and one of the nation’s best safeties in Todd Kelly. Also, 2015 SEC Special Teams Player of the Year Evan Berry is listed as ‘doubtful’ with a leg injury that’s had him sidelined for the last month.
UT started the season 2-0 with wins over Ga. Tech (42-41 in overtime) and Indiana State (42-7), but it has lost two of its last three contest. Butch Jones’s squad was run out of its own house at Neyland Stadium by Georgia two weeks ago. UGA dealt out cream-cheese treatment on the Vols in a dominant 41-0 win. UT had not been shut out since a 31-0 loss vs. Florida in 1994.
Jones has benched junior QB Quinten Dormady, who started the team’s first five games. He’ll turn to redshirt freshman Jarrett Guarantano, who will make his first career start. Guarantano has hit on 12-of-24 passes for 54 yards and one TD without an interception in three games. Dormady has completed 55.5 percent of his throws for 925 yards with a mediocre 6/6 TD-INT ratio.
UT’s stud on offense is workhorse RB John Kelly, who has rushed 97 times for 494 yards and six TDs. The junior is averaging 5.1 YPC. The Vols have won two of their three home games, but they’re 0-3 versus the number at Neyland.
The ‘under’ is 4-2 overall for USC, 2-0 in its road outings. The Gamecocks have seen their games average combined scores of 47.8 points per game. The ‘under’ is 4-1 overall for UT, 3-0 in its home games. The Vols’ games have average combined scores of 49.8 PPG.
Ole Miss (2-3 SU, 0-4-1 ATS) returns home to face Vanderbilt in a 3:30 p.m. Eastern kick on the SEC Network. Since starting 2-0 with wins vs. South Alabama (47-28) and UT-Martin (45-23), the Rebels have dropped three consecutive games by double-digit margins. They’re 0-2 in SEC play following losses at Alabama (66-3) and at Auburn (43-22).
However, Ole Miss did manage to hook up its backers in backdoor fashion as a 22-point underdog on The Plains. Auburn led 38-3 early in the third quarter and 44-17 late in the fourth, but Jordan Wilkins’s one-yard TD plunge with 2:57 remaining gave the Rebels the spread cover. Shea Patterson threw for 346 yards and two TDs without an interception. A.J. Brown had 10 receptions for 109 yards, while Van Jefferson hauled in eight catches for 89 yards.
For the season, Patterson has completed 66.3 percent of his passes for 1,792 yards with a 13/6 TD-INT ratio. Brown has 27 catches for 504 yards and four TDs, while D.K. Metcalf has 23 receptions for 320 yards and four TDs.
Ole Miss has issues galore on defense, ranking No. 111 out of 130 FBS teams in total defense. The Rebels are No. 124 at defending the run and No. 118 in scoring defense (37.4 PPG).
Vandy has lost three consecutive games since its first 3-0 start since 2011. The Commodores have lost all three games by double-digit margins, failing to cover in all three outings. They weren’t even competitive in home games vs. Alabama (59-0) and Georgia (45-14).
Although it’s been a tough three-week stretch, on that also included a 38-24 loss at Florida in a game that was closer than the final score indicated, junior QB Kyle Shurmur continues to play outstanding football. He has a 12/1 TD-INT ratio for the season.
As of late Friday afternoon, most spots had Ole Miss favored by 3.5 points with a total of 55. The Commodores were +145 to win outright.
The ‘over’ is 4-1 for the Rebels, 2-0 in their home games. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 64.2 PPG. As for Vandy, its totals have been a wash overall (3-3) and in its road assignments (1-1).
The marquee SEC game on the docket is Auburn at LSU. This is a 3:30 p.m. Eastern kick on CBS. As of late Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Gus Malzahn’s club listed as a seven-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 44. LSU was +230 on the money line (risk $100 to win $230).
Ed Orgeron’s team bounced back from a disastrous home loss to Troy by a 24-21 count two weeks ago last weekend at The Swamp. LSU (4-2 SU, 1-4-1 ATS) went to Gainesville and won a 17-16 decision over Florida as a 1.5-point road favorite. Bettors who took LSU early in the week cashed tickets as short underdog, but the line moved from UF as a six-point favorite on Sunday night, down to 3.5 by Monday afternoon, down to 2.5 on Thursday and then to LSU as the slim favorite by late Friday. But in terms of the closing line, LSU failed to cover for the fourth consecutive game.
Derrius Guice returned to the field after missing most of the two previous games. He ran for only 50 yards on 17 attempts, however. For the season, Guice has rushed for 364 yards and five TDs while averaging 4.4 YPC. QB Danny Etling doesn’t strike fear into many DC’s, but he’s not making mistakes. The former Purdue signal caller has completed 60.2 percent of his passes for 1,046 yards with a 6/1 TD-INT ratio.
As noted earlier, Auburn (5-1 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) allowed a backdoor cover at home to Ole Miss last week, but it dominated the game. RB Kerryon Johnson stole the show by rushing 28 times for 204 yards and three TDs. Johnson missed a pair of games with injuries last month, but he has 11 rushing TDs in the last three games to bring his total to 12, which is tops in the nation.
Jarrett Stidham completed 14-of-21 passes vs. the Rebels for 235 yards and two TDs without an interception. The transfer from Baylor has five TD passes without an interception in the last three contests. For the season, Stidham has connected on 71.2 percent of his throws for 1,345 yards with a 7/2 TD-INT ratio. Johnson has rushed for 504 yards with a 5.9 YPC average. WR Ryan Davis has 31 receptions for 251 yards and three TDs.
As a road ‘chalk’ since Malzahn took over in 2013, Auburn has compiled a 6-3 spread record in nine such spots. On the flip side, LSU is 0-1 ATS in its lone home ‘dog situation since Orgeron took over, losing 10-0 to Alabama as a seven-point puppy.
Auburn is ranked 13th in the nation in total defense, 20th against the pass, 22nd versus the run and sixth in scoring defense (13.0 PPG). Totals have been a wash for AU both overall (3-3) and on the road (1-1). AU’s games have averaged combined scores of 48.8 PPG.
The ‘under’ is 4-2 overall for LSU, but the ‘over’ is 2-1 in its three home games at Tiger Stadium. LSU has seen its games average combined scores of 44.2 PPG.
Moving into the night games, Florida will host Texas A&M for the first time since the Aggies joined the league. In that first year (2012) of SEC play for A&M, it lost to Florida by a 20-17 score as a one-point home favorite in the collegiate debut of Johnny Manziel. These schools meet again at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
Both coaches need a win in the worst way. As of late Friday afternoon, most books had Florida listed as a three-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 50.5. The Aggies were +130 or 135 on the money line.
UF has just been downright atrocious on offense all season. In fact, this unit has been stuck in the mud since Jim McElwain arrived from Colorado State. Remember, Florida averaged 30.3 PPG in Muschamp’s last season at the helm. Since then, the Gators have averaged 23.2 and 23.9 PPG.
Through five games, Florida (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) is currently ranked No. 103 in the nation in total offense and No. 93 in scoring with a 25.0 PPG average. But if you take away the three defensive TDs scored by UF on pick-sixes, it would only be averaging 20.8 PPG. That’s deplorable!
Making matters worse, Florida might not have its two best WR’s in uniform. Tryrie Cleveland (ankle) and Kadarius Toney (shoulder) were downgraded to ‘doubtful’ on Thursday and neither player has practiced all week. However, Cleveland was upgraded to ‘questionable’ on Friday and OG Brett Heggie, who was the SEC O-Lineman of the Week in a win over Vandy two weeks ago, was upgraded to ‘probable’ (concussion).
Also, UF’s best pass rusher Jabari Zuniga is ‘questionable’ after injuring his ankle at practice this week. Starting sophomore safety Chauncey Gardner is listed as ‘questionable,’ but he sent out a tweet Thursday night saying he was good to go. The other starting safety, Nick Washington, is ‘out’ with a shoulder injury.
UF has wins vs. Tennessee (26-20), at Kentucky (28-27) and vs. Vandy (38-24). Luke Del Rio was lost to a season-ending shoulder injury vs. the Commodores, so redshirt freshman Feleipe Franks was back in the starting lineup vs. LSU. For the season, Franks has connected on 63.3 percent of his passes for 665 yards with a 3/1 TD-INT ratio.
The major bright spot on an otherwise pedestrian offensive unit has been true freshman RB Malik Davis, who has run for 409 yards and two TDs with a 7.2 YPC average. RB Lamical Perine has rushed for 218 yards and five TD with a 4.4 YPC average.
Texas A&M (4-2 SU, 4-1-1 ATS) saw its four-game winning streak snapped in last week’s 27-19 loss to Alabama as a 25-point home underdog. Kevin Sumlin’s squad easily took the cash and became the first foe to play the Crimson Tide to a one-possession game. The Aggies committed three turnovers to finish minus two in turnover margin, essentially ending any upset hopes.
Kellen Mond threw for 237 yards and one TD with one pick. The true freshman QB also had a rushing score. For the season, Mond has thrown for 1,045 yards with a 7/3 TD-INT ratio. He’s also run for 266 yards and two TDs.
Sophomore RB Trayveon Williams has rushed for a team-high 422 yards and five TDs with a 5.2 YPC average. Keith Ford has run for 321 yards and seven TDs, averaging 4.7 YPC. A&M’s best playmaker is two-time All-American Christian Kirk, a junior WR who also thrives on special teams. Kirk has a team-best 27 receptions for 316 yards and five TDs. Kirk also has a 100-yard kickoff return for a TD this year, brining his career TD total on special teams to six.
During Sumlin’s tenure, Texas A&M owns a 5-7 spread record in 12 games as a road underdog. UF is 6-5 ATS as a home ‘chalk’ on McElwain’s watch.
Totals have been an overall wash (3-3) for the Aggies, but they’ve seen the ‘over’ cash in both of their road assignments (one was actually a neutral-field game at Jerry World). Their games have averaged combined scores of 62.2 PPG. Meanwhile, UF has seen the ‘over’ go 3-2 overall, but the ‘under’ is 2-1 in its three home contests. The Gators have watched their games average combined scores of 49.2 PPG.
Alabama (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) will play host to Arkansas at 7:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. As of late Friday afternoon, the Tide was installed as a 31.5-point home ‘chlak’ with a total of 54.5. This is the biggest underdog situation for the Razorbacks during Bret Bielema’s five-year tenure. In the richest previous ‘dog spot, Alabama rolled past Arkansas 52-0 as a 29.5-opint home favorite in 2013.
Arkansas (2-3 SU, 0-5 ATS) has cashed tickets at a 7-1 ATS clip in its last eight games as a road underdog. On the flip side, Nick Saban’s team is 9-15-1 ATS in its last 25 contests as a favorite of 25.5 points or more. The ‘over’ is 2-1 in Alabama’s three home games, but totals have been an overall wash (3-3) for the Tide. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 53.3 PPG. The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for the Hogs, 1-0 in their only road assignment. Their game have played to an average combined score of 64.0 PPG.
Austin Allen inured his shoulder in last week’s aforementioned loss at South Carolina. Nevertheless, the senior QB has been upgraded to ‘probable’ and will get the starting nod. Allen has completed 56.4 percent of his passes for 850 yards with an 8/4 TD-INT ratio, but he’s constantly been under heavy pressure due to poor play from his o-line up front.
Arkansas uses a trio of RBs – Chase Hayden, Devwah Whaley and David Williams – that have each run for at least 235 yards. Williams has a team-best five rushing TDs, while Hayden has four and Whaley has two. With top wideout Jared Cornelius sustaining a season-ending Achilles tear vs. Texas A&M, Allen has been throwing to WRs with inexperience galore. Jonathan Nance has emerged as his favorite target by catching 23 balls for 374 yards and five TDs.
Before sneaking past A&M in College Station last week, Alabama destroyed Vanderbilt 59-0 in Nashville before smashing Ole Miss, 66-3.
Along with Alabama and Auburn, Georgia (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) is a third SEC school in the hunt for a CFP berth. Kirby Smart’s second team is a monster favorite of 29.5 or 30 points for its 7:30 p.m. Eastern kick at home vs. Missouri. The total was 56.5 early Friday night.
UGA is 3-0 in SEC play and also has quality non-conference wins at Notre Dame and vs. Appalachian State, which is probably the best team in the Sun Belt Conference. The Bulldogs blasted Vandy 45-14 last week as 17-point road favorites. Jake Fromm threw for 102 yards and two TDs without an interception, in addition to rushing for 36 yards on four attempts.
Sony Michel ran for 150 yards and one TD on 12 carries, while Nick Chubb produced 138 rushing yards and two TDs on 16 attempts. For the season, Chubb has rushed for a team-high 618 yards and eight TDs while averaging 6.8 YPC. Fromm, the true freshman who took over at QB when Jacob Eason was injured in the first quarter of the season opener, has thrown for 836 yards with a 10/2 TD-INT ratio. He’s also run for a pair of scores.
Eason has taken snaps in mop-up duty the last two weeks, so he’s ready to go if Fromm falters or gets injured. Three UGA defensive starters are injured this week. DT Trenton Thompson and LB Natrez Patrick are ‘doubtful’ vs. Missouri, while LB Lorenzo Carter is ‘out.’
Missouri (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) has lost four in a row but did pull out a backdoor cover in last week’s 40-34 loss at Kentucky as a nine-point underdog. The Tigers had previously taken three straight beatdowns (at home!) vs. South Carolina (31-13), vs. Purdue (35-3) and vs. Auburn (51-14).
The ‘under’ is 5-1 overall for UGA, 3-0 in its home games. The Bulldogs have seen their games average combined scores of 45.0 PPG. UGA is ranked second in the nation in scoring defense (10.0 PPG), fifth at defending the run, third in total defense and 10th against the pass.
The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for Missouri, 1-0 in its lone road contest.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-- Current Iron Bowl spread at 5Dimes.eu: Alabama -9.5 at Auburn.
-- Other Games of the Year number of note include Georgia -12.5 vs. Florida (Jacksonville), Alabama -22 vs. LSU, Auburn -4 vs. UGA and LSU -7 at Tennessee.
-- Butch Jones, the not-for-much-longer ‘caretaker’ of the Tennessee football program, produced another stellar Butch-ism at Monday’s presser in Knoxville. “You don’t have to get a physical rep to get a rep – you can get a ‘leadership rep.’ Gotcha!
-- One of Vandy’s best defensive linemen, Nifae Lealao, is ‘questionable’ at Ole Miss.
-- SEC Hot Seats (from least safe to safest)
1-Butch Jones
2-Bret Bielema
3-Barry Odom
4-Kevin Sumlin
5-Jim McElwain
6-Ed Orgeron
7-Gus Malzahn
8-Derek Mason
9-Mark Stoops
10-Will Muschamp
11-Kirby Smart
12-Dan Mullen
13-Nick Saban
-- I obviously left Ole Miss interim head coach Matt Luke off the list. He has zero shot of keeping that gig for the long haul.
-- Candidates for the jobs that will open: Mullen, Louisville’s Bobby Petrino, Purdue’s Jeff Brohm, Washington State’s Mike Leach, Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables, Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy, Penn State’s James Franklin, USF’s Charlie Strong and Va. Tech’s Justin Fuente.
-- If Peyton Manning becomes the point man on UT’s coaching search, Duke’s David Cutcliffe could be in play. Knoxville sports radio titan Tony Basilio suggested on my Games Galore podcast two weeks ago that Manning wants to be involved in the next hire.
-- To be clear, I don’t think PSU’s Franklin is going anywhere. As for Mullen, I think he would jump but he’s already making nearly $5 million per season, so it’s going to costs a lot of cash to yank him out of Starkville. Bo Bounds of the Out of Bounds Show in Jackson, MS., has stated on twitter, on his radio show and as a guest on other shows that Florida AD and former Mississippi State AD will not hire Mullen to come to Florida. I haven’t heard Bo gets into many details on that matter, but he knows everything that goes on at MSU and Ole Miss, so I’ll take him at his word.
-- I believe it’s an absolute given that Petrino will be in the SEC next season. A clause in his contract stipulates that his buyout is reduced in half if AD Tom Jurich fired. Although that isn’t completely official yet, it will be soon. At that point, Petrino’s buyout will “only” be $4 million.
