SEC Notebook - Week 3
September 14, 2017
Let’s start this week’s SEC Notebook with a look at our Power Rankings for the conference going into Week 3:
1-Alabama
2-LSU
3-Georgia
4-Auburn
5-South Carolina
6-Vanderbilt
7-Florida
8-Mississippi State
9-Tennessee
10-Texas A&M
11-Ole Miss
12-Kentucky
13-Arkansas
14-Missouri
Florida hasn’t started 0-2 since 1971. In fact, the Gators are 0-1 for the first time since 1989 when Ole Miss won a 24-19 decision at The Swamp. They saw their Week 2 game vs. No. Colorado postponed due to Hurricane Irma, so UF will attempt to win its first game of 2017 against Tennessee. These bitter SEC East rivals will collide in Gainesville at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.
As of Thursday morning, most betting shops had Florida (0-1 straight up, 0-1 against the spread) listed as a 4.5 or five-point favorite with a total of 49.5. The Volunteers were +170 to win outright at The Swamp for the first time since 2003 when Casey Clausen led UT to victory over Ron Zook’s squad.
UF will be without its nine previously suspended players, including its best running back (Jordan Scarlett) and wide receiver (Antonio Callaway). Also, starting LB Kylan Johnson is ‘out’ with a leg injury. On the bright side, TE DeAndre Goolsby has been upgraded to ‘probable’ after Jim McElwain implied he was out for an indefinite period of time last week. Goolsby is a key piece in UF’s offense after hauling in 38 receptions for 342 yards and three TDs last season.
Tennessee is dealing with a number of injuries. Starting OT Chance Hall and LB Darrin Kirkland were lost to season-enders in August. Now starting WR Jauan Jennings is out for the year with a wrist injury. Jennings had 40 catches for 580 yards and seven TDs in ’16. Evan Berry, a reserve DB and two-time first-team All-SEC kick returner who was the SEC Special Teams Player of the Year in 2015, is listed as ‘questionable’ with an undisclosed injury. Also, starting senior CB Justin Martin is ‘questionable’ with a stinger.
Florida has compiled a 4-5 spread record in nine games as a home favorite during McElwain’s three-year tenure. The Volunteers own a 4-5-1 spread record in 10 games as road underdogs on Butch Jones’s watch. The Gators raced out to a 21-0 lead in last year’s encounter at Neyland Stadium, only to see Tennessee score 38 unanswered points. The Vols eventually captured a 38-28 win as 4.5-point home ‘chalk’ to snap an 11-game losing streak to UF.
In Its last visit to Gainesville, UT took a 26-14 lead with 10:19 remaining in the fourth quarter. With a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter, every head coach on this planet not named Zook, Les Miles or Butch Jones knows you have to go for two because there’s no difference between a 12 and 13-point lead when the opponent almost certainly doesn’t have enough time to get three more offensive possessions. Of course, Jones chose to go for one and, rightfully so, it came back to haunt him.
Florida responded with a 16-play, 86-yard TD drive to pull within 27-21. Then with less than a minute remaining on a 4th-and-14 play, Will Grier found Callaway for a first down, but Callaway made a slick move toward the sideline, picked up a great block from Brandon Powell and went the distance to give UF the lead. UT’s 55-yard field goal to win it on the game’s final play looked to be good initially before sailing wide right.
Not only did Jones think the kick was good and start to celebrate like a clown, he then defended his decision to go for one by perplexingly and cowardly pointing out that his “standard two-point chart” told him to go for one. Okay, then!
South Carolina and Vanderbilt have been a surprise to some. Not to this space, though, as we’ve been touting the 2017 Gamecocks since late in the 2016 campaign. Our thoughts on this squad were delivered in great detail way back in July.
Will Muschamp’s team won a 35-28 decision over North Carolina St. as a seven-point underdog in Week 1. Then in Week 2, USC went to Missouri and fell behind 10-0 early, only to respond with a 31-3 run en route to a 31-13 victory as a three-point ‘dog.
Trailing 10-0, junior Deebo Samuel returned his second kickoff of the season for a touchdown (the other came on the first play of the season against the Wolfpack). On the first play of Missouri’s next drive, the prize of Muschamp’s 2017 recruiting class, true freshman cornerback Jamyest Williams, picked off Drew Lock for the first interception of his career. On the very next play, Samuel took a jet sweep 25 yards to the house. In other words, a four-play stretch netted two TDs from Samuel and a double-digit road deficit was erased, as South Carolina took the lead for good.
USC played turnover-free football, with sophomore quarterback Jake Bentley throwing one TD to improve his touchdown-to-interception ratio to 4/1 for the year. Junior TE Hayden Hurst got involved against the Tigers, scoring a pair of TDs on a 39-yard pass from Bentley and on a two-yard run on a third-and-goal play. Hurst showed his speed on the TD catch, while it was his size and power on display when he slipped multiple tackles to find the end zone on his running score.
The South Carolina defense held a Missouri offense that scored 72 points in Week 1 to merely 13. Now the Gamecocks bring a 2-0 record into their home opener Saturday night vs. Kentucky.
As of early Thursday morning, South Carolina was installed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 51 at most books. The Wildcats were +210 on the money line (risk $100 to win $210).
South Carolina has dropped three in a row to UK, including last year’s 17-10 setback in Lexington. These teams have played four consecutive one-possession games dating back to USC’s 35-28 win in 2013.
Kentucky (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) has now won nine of its last 12 regular-season games. The Wildcats didn’t wow anyone with a win at So. Miss (24-17) or vs. Eastern Ky. (27-16), but they nonetheless enter their SEC lid-lifter undefeated.
Jordan Jones, UK’s top defensive player, is dealing with a shoulder injury and is listed as ‘questionable.’ Jones was a second-team All-SEC selection as a sophomore last year when he recorded 109 tackles, four sacks, 11.5 tackles for loss, nine QB hurries and four passes broken up. WR Dorian Baker remains sidelined indefinitely for the ‘Cats.
Mark Stoops’s team has covered the spread in each of its last four games as a road underdog, but UK is just 9-9 ATS as a road ‘dog during his five-year tenure. Meanwhile, Muschamp went 2-2 ATS in four games as a home favorite during his first year in Columbia.
The SEC Network will have the UK-USC telecast at 7:30 p.m. Eastern.
Vanderbilt, No. 25 in my Power Rankings this week, will take on Kansas State on ESPNU at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. The Commodores have looked extremely impressive in wins at Middle Tennessee and vs. Alabama A&M, thumping those foes by a combined score of 70-6.
Junior Kyle Shurmur came of age last November and is on fire through two games, completing 35-of-46 passes for 498 yards and seven TDs without an interception. He’s also rushed for a score. The ‘Dores scored TDs on their first three drives in their opener and on their first four drives last week. They have one of the nation’s top RBs in Ralph Webb, who is already the school’s all-time leading rusher.
Vanderbilt owns an 8-3 spread record in 11 games as a home underdog during Derek Mason’s four-year tenure. The Commodores have won outright in four consecutive home games dating back to last year, and each victory has come by a margin of at least 11 points.
As of Thursday morning, most spots had Kansas State listed as a 3.5 or four-point favorite. The money-line return on Vandy was in the +155 neighborhood (risk $100 to win $155).
LSU (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) has won outright an eye-opening 16 times in its last 17 games against Mississippi State. The lone defeat came when Dak Prescott shredded the Tigers in Baton Rouge in 2014. When these SEC West adversaries squared off at Tiger Stadium last season, the Bulldogs trimmed a 23-3 deficit in the four quarter to 23-20 and had the ball in LSU territory in the closing minute. The rally fell short, but LSU backers were left furious by the backdoor cover for MSU as a 13.5-point road underdog.
LSU’s defense didn’t allow BYU to cross midfield in a dominant 27-0 win in its opener at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans two weeks ago. The Tigers took the cash as 14.5-point favorites, while the 27 combined points fell ‘under’ the 47.5-point total. They followed up that win with a 45-10 non-covering triumph over Chattanooga as 36.5-point home ‘chalk’ in Week 2.
Mississippi State (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) has captured wins vs. Charleston Southern (49-0) and at Louisiana Tech (52-21). Led by new defensive coordinator Todd Grantham, the Bulldogs limited Charleston Southern to merely two first downs. Then they went to Ruston and avenged a 2008 loss in Sylvester Croom’s final season as HC in Starkville.
Through two games, junior QB Nick Fitzgerald has thrown for 363 yards with a 5/1 TD-INT ratio. He has also rushed for 152 yards and three TDs on just 17 attempts (8.9 yards per carry!). Meanwhile, LSU’s Derrius Guice has run for 224 yards and four TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC.
LSU will get star pass rusher Arden Key back from a shoulder injury to make his season debut. Key was a second-team All-SEC selection last year when he produced 56 tackles, 12 sacks, 11 QB hurries and three forced fumbles.
As of early Thursday morning, most spots had LSU favored by 7.5 with a total of 51 points. The Bulldogs were available on the money line for a +250 payout.
Dan Mullen owns a 10-10 spread record in 20 games as a home underdog during his nine-year tenure. LSU went 2-0 ATS as a road favorite after Ed Orgeron took over for Les Miles last year.
Kickoff in Starkville at Davis-Wade Stadium is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
Ole Miss (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) has won a pair of home games over South Alabama (47-27) and UT-Martin (45-23). The Rebels allowed a 47-13 fourth-quarter lead to get away against the Jaguars, who posted a backdoor cover as 22-point road ‘dogs. They failed to take the cash vs. UT-Martin as a 32.5-point home fave.
Sophomore QB Shea Patterson has been nothing short of sensational, completing 60-of-78 passes (76.9%) for 918 yards and nine TDs compared to only one interception. WR A.J. Brown, another true sophomore, has brought down 16 catches for 389 yards and four TDs.
As of Thursday morning, most books had Ole Miss favored by 3.5 points for its road game at California. The total was 72, while the Golden Bears were +155 to win outright.
The Justin Wilcox Era is off to a nice start in Berkeley. Wilcox, who did a fantastic job as Wisconsin’s defensive coordinator last year after Dave Aranda left the Badgers to take the DC post at LSU, led Cal to a 35-30 win at North Carolina (in a noon Eastern game) as a 13-point road ‘dog in Week 1. Cal won a 33-20 decision over Weber State at home last week.
ESPN will provide the broadcast at 10:30 p.m. Eastern.
September 14, 2017
Let’s start this week’s SEC Notebook with a look at our Power Rankings for the conference going into Week 3:
1-Alabama
2-LSU
3-Georgia
4-Auburn
5-South Carolina
6-Vanderbilt
7-Florida
8-Mississippi State
9-Tennessee
10-Texas A&M
11-Ole Miss
12-Kentucky
13-Arkansas
14-Missouri
Florida hasn’t started 0-2 since 1971. In fact, the Gators are 0-1 for the first time since 1989 when Ole Miss won a 24-19 decision at The Swamp. They saw their Week 2 game vs. No. Colorado postponed due to Hurricane Irma, so UF will attempt to win its first game of 2017 against Tennessee. These bitter SEC East rivals will collide in Gainesville at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.
As of Thursday morning, most betting shops had Florida (0-1 straight up, 0-1 against the spread) listed as a 4.5 or five-point favorite with a total of 49.5. The Volunteers were +170 to win outright at The Swamp for the first time since 2003 when Casey Clausen led UT to victory over Ron Zook’s squad.
UF will be without its nine previously suspended players, including its best running back (Jordan Scarlett) and wide receiver (Antonio Callaway). Also, starting LB Kylan Johnson is ‘out’ with a leg injury. On the bright side, TE DeAndre Goolsby has been upgraded to ‘probable’ after Jim McElwain implied he was out for an indefinite period of time last week. Goolsby is a key piece in UF’s offense after hauling in 38 receptions for 342 yards and three TDs last season.
Tennessee is dealing with a number of injuries. Starting OT Chance Hall and LB Darrin Kirkland were lost to season-enders in August. Now starting WR Jauan Jennings is out for the year with a wrist injury. Jennings had 40 catches for 580 yards and seven TDs in ’16. Evan Berry, a reserve DB and two-time first-team All-SEC kick returner who was the SEC Special Teams Player of the Year in 2015, is listed as ‘questionable’ with an undisclosed injury. Also, starting senior CB Justin Martin is ‘questionable’ with a stinger.
Florida has compiled a 4-5 spread record in nine games as a home favorite during McElwain’s three-year tenure. The Volunteers own a 4-5-1 spread record in 10 games as road underdogs on Butch Jones’s watch. The Gators raced out to a 21-0 lead in last year’s encounter at Neyland Stadium, only to see Tennessee score 38 unanswered points. The Vols eventually captured a 38-28 win as 4.5-point home ‘chalk’ to snap an 11-game losing streak to UF.
In Its last visit to Gainesville, UT took a 26-14 lead with 10:19 remaining in the fourth quarter. With a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter, every head coach on this planet not named Zook, Les Miles or Butch Jones knows you have to go for two because there’s no difference between a 12 and 13-point lead when the opponent almost certainly doesn’t have enough time to get three more offensive possessions. Of course, Jones chose to go for one and, rightfully so, it came back to haunt him.
Florida responded with a 16-play, 86-yard TD drive to pull within 27-21. Then with less than a minute remaining on a 4th-and-14 play, Will Grier found Callaway for a first down, but Callaway made a slick move toward the sideline, picked up a great block from Brandon Powell and went the distance to give UF the lead. UT’s 55-yard field goal to win it on the game’s final play looked to be good initially before sailing wide right.
Not only did Jones think the kick was good and start to celebrate like a clown, he then defended his decision to go for one by perplexingly and cowardly pointing out that his “standard two-point chart” told him to go for one. Okay, then!
South Carolina and Vanderbilt have been a surprise to some. Not to this space, though, as we’ve been touting the 2017 Gamecocks since late in the 2016 campaign. Our thoughts on this squad were delivered in great detail way back in July.
Will Muschamp’s team won a 35-28 decision over North Carolina St. as a seven-point underdog in Week 1. Then in Week 2, USC went to Missouri and fell behind 10-0 early, only to respond with a 31-3 run en route to a 31-13 victory as a three-point ‘dog.
Trailing 10-0, junior Deebo Samuel returned his second kickoff of the season for a touchdown (the other came on the first play of the season against the Wolfpack). On the first play of Missouri’s next drive, the prize of Muschamp’s 2017 recruiting class, true freshman cornerback Jamyest Williams, picked off Drew Lock for the first interception of his career. On the very next play, Samuel took a jet sweep 25 yards to the house. In other words, a four-play stretch netted two TDs from Samuel and a double-digit road deficit was erased, as South Carolina took the lead for good.
USC played turnover-free football, with sophomore quarterback Jake Bentley throwing one TD to improve his touchdown-to-interception ratio to 4/1 for the year. Junior TE Hayden Hurst got involved against the Tigers, scoring a pair of TDs on a 39-yard pass from Bentley and on a two-yard run on a third-and-goal play. Hurst showed his speed on the TD catch, while it was his size and power on display when he slipped multiple tackles to find the end zone on his running score.
The South Carolina defense held a Missouri offense that scored 72 points in Week 1 to merely 13. Now the Gamecocks bring a 2-0 record into their home opener Saturday night vs. Kentucky.
As of early Thursday morning, South Carolina was installed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 51 at most books. The Wildcats were +210 on the money line (risk $100 to win $210).
South Carolina has dropped three in a row to UK, including last year’s 17-10 setback in Lexington. These teams have played four consecutive one-possession games dating back to USC’s 35-28 win in 2013.
Kentucky (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) has now won nine of its last 12 regular-season games. The Wildcats didn’t wow anyone with a win at So. Miss (24-17) or vs. Eastern Ky. (27-16), but they nonetheless enter their SEC lid-lifter undefeated.
Jordan Jones, UK’s top defensive player, is dealing with a shoulder injury and is listed as ‘questionable.’ Jones was a second-team All-SEC selection as a sophomore last year when he recorded 109 tackles, four sacks, 11.5 tackles for loss, nine QB hurries and four passes broken up. WR Dorian Baker remains sidelined indefinitely for the ‘Cats.
Mark Stoops’s team has covered the spread in each of its last four games as a road underdog, but UK is just 9-9 ATS as a road ‘dog during his five-year tenure. Meanwhile, Muschamp went 2-2 ATS in four games as a home favorite during his first year in Columbia.
The SEC Network will have the UK-USC telecast at 7:30 p.m. Eastern.
Vanderbilt, No. 25 in my Power Rankings this week, will take on Kansas State on ESPNU at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. The Commodores have looked extremely impressive in wins at Middle Tennessee and vs. Alabama A&M, thumping those foes by a combined score of 70-6.
Junior Kyle Shurmur came of age last November and is on fire through two games, completing 35-of-46 passes for 498 yards and seven TDs without an interception. He’s also rushed for a score. The ‘Dores scored TDs on their first three drives in their opener and on their first four drives last week. They have one of the nation’s top RBs in Ralph Webb, who is already the school’s all-time leading rusher.
Vanderbilt owns an 8-3 spread record in 11 games as a home underdog during Derek Mason’s four-year tenure. The Commodores have won outright in four consecutive home games dating back to last year, and each victory has come by a margin of at least 11 points.
As of Thursday morning, most spots had Kansas State listed as a 3.5 or four-point favorite. The money-line return on Vandy was in the +155 neighborhood (risk $100 to win $155).
LSU (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) has won outright an eye-opening 16 times in its last 17 games against Mississippi State. The lone defeat came when Dak Prescott shredded the Tigers in Baton Rouge in 2014. When these SEC West adversaries squared off at Tiger Stadium last season, the Bulldogs trimmed a 23-3 deficit in the four quarter to 23-20 and had the ball in LSU territory in the closing minute. The rally fell short, but LSU backers were left furious by the backdoor cover for MSU as a 13.5-point road underdog.
LSU’s defense didn’t allow BYU to cross midfield in a dominant 27-0 win in its opener at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans two weeks ago. The Tigers took the cash as 14.5-point favorites, while the 27 combined points fell ‘under’ the 47.5-point total. They followed up that win with a 45-10 non-covering triumph over Chattanooga as 36.5-point home ‘chalk’ in Week 2.
Mississippi State (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) has captured wins vs. Charleston Southern (49-0) and at Louisiana Tech (52-21). Led by new defensive coordinator Todd Grantham, the Bulldogs limited Charleston Southern to merely two first downs. Then they went to Ruston and avenged a 2008 loss in Sylvester Croom’s final season as HC in Starkville.
Through two games, junior QB Nick Fitzgerald has thrown for 363 yards with a 5/1 TD-INT ratio. He has also rushed for 152 yards and three TDs on just 17 attempts (8.9 yards per carry!). Meanwhile, LSU’s Derrius Guice has run for 224 yards and four TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC.
LSU will get star pass rusher Arden Key back from a shoulder injury to make his season debut. Key was a second-team All-SEC selection last year when he produced 56 tackles, 12 sacks, 11 QB hurries and three forced fumbles.
As of early Thursday morning, most spots had LSU favored by 7.5 with a total of 51 points. The Bulldogs were available on the money line for a +250 payout.
Dan Mullen owns a 10-10 spread record in 20 games as a home underdog during his nine-year tenure. LSU went 2-0 ATS as a road favorite after Ed Orgeron took over for Les Miles last year.
Kickoff in Starkville at Davis-Wade Stadium is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
Ole Miss (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) has won a pair of home games over South Alabama (47-27) and UT-Martin (45-23). The Rebels allowed a 47-13 fourth-quarter lead to get away against the Jaguars, who posted a backdoor cover as 22-point road ‘dogs. They failed to take the cash vs. UT-Martin as a 32.5-point home fave.
Sophomore QB Shea Patterson has been nothing short of sensational, completing 60-of-78 passes (76.9%) for 918 yards and nine TDs compared to only one interception. WR A.J. Brown, another true sophomore, has brought down 16 catches for 389 yards and four TDs.
As of Thursday morning, most books had Ole Miss favored by 3.5 points for its road game at California. The total was 72, while the Golden Bears were +155 to win outright.
The Justin Wilcox Era is off to a nice start in Berkeley. Wilcox, who did a fantastic job as Wisconsin’s defensive coordinator last year after Dave Aranda left the Badgers to take the DC post at LSU, led Cal to a 35-30 win at North Carolina (in a noon Eastern game) as a 13-point road ‘dog in Week 1. Cal won a 33-20 decision over Weber State at home last week.
ESPN will provide the broadcast at 10:30 p.m. Eastern.
