Sweet 16 Primer
March 21, 2017
The 2017 NCAA Tournament field has been dwindled down from 68 schools to 16 who are still dreaming of cutting the nets down in Phoenix.
Kansas, one of the three No. 1 seeds that advanced to their respective region semifinals, is listed as a 4/1 favorite to win the national title at Sportsbook.ag.
North Carolina has the second-shortest odds (+450, risk $100 to win $450).
However, UNC is the only ACC school with life. In a year the league earned nine NCAA bids and was mentioned by many as the best conference in college basketball history, it endured a disastrous first weekend.
Xavier beat FSU by 25 points in Orlando without its best player in uniform. Florida destroyed Virginia, limiting the Wahoos to just 39 points in a 26-point pimpslap. Michigan clipped Louisville, while West Virginia beat Notre Dame by 12.
Michigan trounced Miami by 20. Wisconsin took out Virginia Tech by double digits.
Surely Duke, fresh off its four-day run to win the ACC Tournament last weekend in Brooklyn, would be able to hang on to a seven-point halftime lead over South Carolina late Sunday night? Right?
Wrong. South Carolina dropped 65 points on Duke in the second half as UNC fans roared their approval inside Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, S.C. The Gamecocks are in the Sweet 16 for the first time in their program’s history after winning an 88-81 decision as seven-point underdogs. They hooked up money-line backers with a big +280 return.
When Frank Martin was hired away from Kansas State by (‘the other’) USC, I felt it was a home-run hire (and still do). However, I have been surprised it’s taken Martin this long to get to the NCAA Tournament. But the patience has paid off in Year 5 of the Martin’s Era in Columbia. It was his seniors – Sindarius Thornwell and Duane Notice – who were the difference against the Blue Devils, who committed a season-high 18 turnovers.
Thornwell bullied his way to 24 points, six rebounds and five assists, while Notice made 6-of-8 shots from the field, including 2-of-4 from downtown, on his way to a 17-point effort. Notice also had four rebounds and three steals. Chris Silva dominated the paint, producing 17 points, 10 boards and two blocked shots.
North Carolina nearly met the same fate as Duke hours earlier at the same venue. UNC had allowed a 17-point first-half lead get away to Arkansas, which was hunting its first Sweet 16 appearance since Nolan Richardson’s iconic tenure in Fayetteville.
The Razorbacks led 65-60 with less than three minutes remaining, but the Tar Heels closed the game on a 12-0 run to sneak into the Sweet 16 for the 35th time. Gamblers who were holding +800 money-line tickets on the Hogs were left immensely disappointed.
Wisconsin sent the defending champs out of the bracket. Like I said in my Bracket Analysis column on Selection Sunday, Jay Wright had to be miffed with a team like the Badgers being seeded eighth, especially since Villanova was the Tournament’s No. 1 overall seed. Minnesota was a No. 5 seed even though Wisconsin’s veteran-laden squad beat it twice, including a 66-49 spanking in Madison.
Greg Gard’s team captured a 65-62 win over Villanova thanks to multiple defensive stops in the final minute. The Badgers advance to the Madison Square Garden in New York City, where they’ll face Florida in a 4/8 matchup in Friday’s late game. The winner of Wisconsin-UF will get the winner of South Carolina vs. Baylor.
Most spots have the Gators favored by 1.5 or two points. Mike White’s first NCAA Tournament appearance has consisted of a pair of wins by double-digit margins. UF broke open a one-point halftime lead in the second half to put it on East Tennessee State, 80-65.
As previously noted, UVA went down next at the hands of Florida. UF is in the East Region semifinals despite the shooting woes of leading scorer KeVaughn Allen, who went 3-of-21 of the field and 1-for-13 from 3-point range in the first weekend. To his credit, though, he had five assists without a turnover and three steals.
Let’s also note that Allen liked MSG back in November when he dropped 21 points on Duke in a losing effort. Allen drained 8-of-12 shots, including 3-of-5 from long distance.
The other region semifinal in NYC will feature Baylor against South Carolina. Most spots have the Bears favored by 3.5 with the total in the 135-136 range.
(Quick Thought: If you took a look at any of my Tip Sheets for last week, you saw how I pointed out teams to which the ‘Fresh Legs Theory’ applied. This notion refers to teams who lose in the first game of their conference tournament, and therefore don’t extend energy galore the week beforehand. Three of the four teams in NYC (UF, S-Carolina and Baylor), in addition to Kansas, Butler and Purdue, all had ‘Fresh Legs.’ Rhode Island, a team that had to really to exert itself the prior week, ran out of gas in the Round of 32.)
Kentucky gives the SEC three teams in the Sweet 16. John Calipari’s team swatted away two straight Wichita State shots at winning time to survive with a 65-62 win, although the Shockers took the cash as 4.5-point underdogs.
UK will take on UCLA in a rematch of an early December game at Rupp Arena, where the Bruins won 97-92 as double-digit underdogs. These teams will meet in Memphis, where the Bruins were eliminated from the South Region semifinals by Florida three years ago.
As Steve Alford takes his team to the Sweet 16, Indiana’s interest in bringing back one of its most legendary players to IU will engulf the national headlines. Alford’s son Bryce is a senior, while freshmen Lonzo Ball and T.J. Leaf are guaranteed to be one-and-doners. Alford led IU to the school’s last national title in 1987 and was a four-time All Big Ten selection.
IU fired Tom Crean last week after nine up-and-down seasons. Alford is a Midwest guy from New Castle, Indiana, who has spent more than a decade in New Mexico and UCLA. He was on the hot seat coming into this year, while he was never really appreciated at UNM or Iowa. Like Roy Williams at Kansas being courted (again) by UNC in 2003 when the Jayhawks eventually lost in the finals to ‘Melo, McNamara and the ‘Cuse, this story won’t go away as long as the Bruins have a pulse.
The West Region semifinals will be contested in San Jose, where top-seeded Gonzaga will collide with West Virginia. The other matchup will be Arizona versus Xavier. The Wildcats pulled away from Saint Mary’s in the second half and covered as 4.5-point ‘chalk.’ Along with Gonzaga’s Mark Few, UA’s Sean Miller are looking to get their first Final Fours.
Gonzaga allowed an 18-point halftime lead to get trimmed to five late in the second half. In fact, Northwestern should have been given bucket from a goaltend that would’ve cut the deficit to three. The officials inexplicably failed to make the call, prompting Chris Collins to garner a technical foul. Instead of a three-point deficit with momentum galore on Northwestern’s side, the ‘Zags converted both free throws, extending their lead to seven and turning the mojo back their way.
Gonzaga would finish the deal to advance, but the Wildcats covered the spread as double-digit ‘dogs.
WVU hit all five of its 3-point launches in the second half to pull away for an 83-71 win over Notre Dame, denying the Fighting Irish a shot at getting to a third consecutive Elite Eight. The Mountaineers are three-point underdogs to Gonzaga, while ‘Zona is favored by 7.5 points against the Musketeers.
Purdue stopped Vermont, the team that brought the nation’s longest winning streak into the Tourney, in the Round of 64. Then the Boilermakers, who are in their first Sweet 16 in seven years, lost a 19-point lead to red-hot Iowa St, only to recover at crunch time and win an 80-76 decision as one-point ‘chalk.’
Matt Painter’s team will square off against top-seeded Kansas in the Midwest Region. KU got 14 of Josh Jackson’s 23 points in the second half to break open a tight game against Michigan State and win 90-70 in a misleading final score. The Jayhawks took the cash as eight-point favorites. KU will have a decided advantage over Purdue because it will be playing in Kansas City at the Sprint Center for the fifth time this year. Most spots have the Boilermakers installed as five-point underdogs.
The other game in KC will be Oregon vs. Michigan. The Wolverines are short favorites after dusting Oklahoma St and Louisville. Moritz Wagner scored 26 points against the Cardinals, while Derrick Walton tallied 10 points, seven rebounds and six assists without a turnover.
Let’s shift back to Memphis, where the UCLA-UK winner will get the survivor of UNC-Butler. Yes, the Bulldogs are in yet another Sweet 16 after sending Middle Tennessee home. The Tar Heels are favored by 7.5 points.
The rest of the future odds (remember, we noted KU and UNC at 4/1 and +450 earlier) look like this: Gonzaga (5/1), Arizona (+550), UCLA (7/1), UF (12/1), UK (12/1), Baylor (15/1), Oregon (15/1), Wisconsin (15/1), Michigan (18/1), WVU (18/1), Purdue (20/1), Butler (50/1), South Carolina (50/1) and Xavier (100/1).
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-- LSU has hired Will Wade away from VCU. My first reaction: I like it. Wade has taken the Rams to back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances since taking over for Shaka Smart. VCU advanced to the Round of 32 last year and gave Oklahoma, a team that went to the Final Four, fits for 40 minutes. With that said, we’ll point out the LSU’s AD Joe Alleva paid big bucks to a search firm to do his job for him in terms of this coaching search.
-- Hat Tip to Nick Duncan, the heavy-set Aussie who saw his outstanding collegiate career end at Illinois on Monday night in the second round of the NIT. Duncan can play on my team any day. He was the heart and soul of Boise State’s teams over the last four years, two of which lost in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament. Duncan drained 3’s, lots of ‘em for a big man. He dove for loose balls and took charges like it was his job – because it was. Duncan set vicious screens and rarely missed a box out. The Broncos will miss him.
-- UT-Arlington is in the NIT quarterfinals after easily handling BYU (in Provo!) and staying undefeated at home with last night’s win over Akron. The Mavericks, who are playing without their second-leading scorer, get to stay at home and host Cal State Bakersfield on Wednesday night for the right to go to MSG in NYC next week.
