Thursday's Elite Eight
February 2, 2017
A look at the day's top eight college basketball matchups, ranked in order of most attractive.
THURSDAY, FEB. 2
Matchup Records Skinny Projection
Gonzaga
Overall: 22-0 SU, 15-4 ATS
West Coast: 10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS
Totals: 9-10 O/U
BYU
Overall: 16-7 SU, 9-11 ATS
West Coast: 7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS
Totals: 8-11-1 O/U
Gonzaga at BYU, 11 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Outside of Gonzaga's Feb. 11 visit to Saint Mary's, the only West Coast Conference stop were it failed to win last season, tonight's trip to Provo will likely provide their toughest challenge. Although the Cougars have been inconsistent, if they're able to hit some early shots and keep the crowd at the Marriott Center engaged, the Bulldogs will be forced to contend with the most hostile atmosphere they'll see all year. The Zags have played games at Disney's Wide World of Sports, Nashville's Bridgeport Arena, a hockey venue, and LA's Staples Center. All their toughest games were played at those neutral sites. Undoubtedly, that will make the aforementioned trek to the Bay Area to face the Gaels the biggest threat to an undefeated regular season, but tonight's game will be played in a raucous building in front of nearly six times as many BYU fans than there will be Saint Mary's supporters at tiny McKeon Pavilion in just over a week. Any hope for a BYU upset hinges on a big game from forward Eric Mika, who leads the WCC in scoring (20.8), rebounding (9.6) and blocks (2.0). He can get the Cougs extra opportunities alongside freshman Yoeli Childs as BYU looks to find ways to attack Gonzaga, which has had issues on the boards at times. Gonzaga has its own key freshman in 6-foot-10 Killian Tillie, who is likely to return from an ankle sprain. The Cougars have a major injury concern since guard Nick Emery, the team's leader in 3-pointers made and attempted, fell ill with the flu and will be a game-time decision. Emery has been dealing with a sore knee, so he won't be 100 percent even if he does play. Gonzaga has only failed to cover twice in its last 15 games, a run that dates back to late November. It has won 14 straight games by double-digits and took last week's two West Coast Conference games by an average of 41.5.
Gonzaga 84
BYU 74
Utah
Overall: 15-6 SU, 10-8-1 ATS
Pac-12: 6-3 SU, 6-2-1 ATS
Totals: 10-8-1 O/U
California
Overall: 15-6 SU, 8-13 ATS
Pac-12: 6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS
Totals: 10-11 O/U
Utah at California, 9 p.m. ET, Pac-12
These teams come in with identical records and should wind up on the right side of the bubble when the field of 68 is announced on March 12, but both would love to ease the pressure on a daunting February slate by getting this first one. This matchup pits two of the Pac-12's top big men in forwards Ivan Rabb (15.6, 10.7), Cal's likely lottery pick, and Utah's Kyle Kuzma (15.6, 10.1), whose versatility and polished post skills make them the focal point of their respective teams. The Bears have won five of six and have been at their best since getting healthy, while Utah got forward David Collette back from a concussion for last week's home loss to Oregon. The Utes shoot 59.5 percent from the field from 2-point range, which Collette greatly contributes to since he's up near 66 percent, takes smart shots and has proven to be a fantastic finisher around the basket. He's one of five double-digit scorers for Utah, who now have strength in numbers with Collette back and fellow transfer Sedrick Barefield (SMU) really providing a boost from the perimeter and through his ability to score. Cal got center Kameron Rooks back to aid the cause inside and has gotten a huge lift from freshman Charlie Moore, a Chicago native who was Illinois' Mr. Basketball last year and has stepped in to lead the veteran-laden Bears in assists. Cal and Utah are among the top rebounding teams in the Pac-12, so whichever team is able to win the battle of the boards is likely to win this game. They're meeting for the first time since last March's conference tournament semifinals, a contest the Utes won in OT.
California 76
Utah 72
Michigan State
Overall: 13-9 SU, 10-11 ATS
Big Ten: 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS
Totals: 10-10-1 O/U
Nebraska
Overall: 10-11 SU, 10-9 ATS
Big Ten: 4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS
Totals: 8-11 O/U
Michigan State at Nebraska, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
Oddsmakers went pick'em on this, a key contest between teams hoping to catch fire this month in order to have a shot at being happy on Selection Sunday. Coming off a home upset of Purdue, the 'Huskers are looking to string together consecutive Big Ten wins to climb back in the hunt for an at-large bid following a five-game losing streak that appeared to have dashed those hopes. Because Nebraska played such a fierce non-conference schedule and opened league play with wins at Indiana and Maryland -- still the Terps' lone Big Ten loss -- it can realisically land right back on the bubble with a strong February. The Spartans defeated rival Michigan in East Lansing on Sunday to snap a three-game losing streak and will be in Ann Arbor next Tuesday for the big rematch. Although Michigan State is in better shape than Nebraska, it still has to host Wisconsin and travel to Purdue, Illinois and Maryland in addition to facing Michigan, so getting on track on the road is a must. Sparty has lost on a miliary base at Pearl Harbor, at Madison Square Garden, in Paradise Island down in the Bahamas, at Duke and at league stops in State College, Columbus and Bloomington. They're 2-7 outside of East Lansing, but do have dynamic freshman Miles Bridges playing like he did to start the season before getting injured, averaging 20.2 points and 9.0 rebounds over his last five games. Nebraska hopes to have its top rebounder and post defender, Ed Morrow, back from a foot injury that has cost him the past seven games, but won't make a decision on his availability until closer to tip-off. Tom Izzo's Spartans have won three straight in this series.
Michigan State 72
Nebraska 68
Colorado
Overall: 12-10 SU, 6-14 ATS
Pac-12: 2-7 SU, 2-6-1 ATS
Totals: 8-13 O/U
Stanford
Overall: 13-7 SU, 9-11 ATS
Pac-12: 3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS
Totals: 7-13 O/U
Colorado at Stanford, 11 p.m. ET, Pac-12
These are the two most disappointing teams in the conference this season, but both are talented enough to play spoiler this month and secure themselves an NIT bid for their efforts. They'll play twice, getting together on the 2nd of next month as well, and it will probably end up that the team that can persevere head-to-head will climb ahead on the pecking order to finish seventh and earn themselves the easiest path to making a run in the Pac-12 Tournament. Colorado comes off a stunning upset of Oregon, handing the Ducks their first league loss. The Buffs have won consecutive games after opening league play 0-7. Losses to ASU, USC, Washington and Washington State all came by one possession, so they may have made a breakthrough in putting away Oregon. Experience-wise, they have one of the conference's most veteran groups, which gives them an advantage here. Colorado has beaten Stanford six consecutive times. The Cardinal got power forward Reid Travis back from a shoulder issue that has hindered him for most of the month, returning for Sunday's 66-55 loss to Cal. Travis (16.6, 8.7) leads his team in scoring and rebounding and often commands double-teams, creating space for an offense that ranks last in the legue in 3-point percentage (31.3), field goal percentage (42.7) and next-to-last in scoring (68.0). Senior guards Derrick White and Xavier Johnson will be tough for Stanford to stop given their lack of depth on the wing, but it did manage to overcome Markelle Fultz-led Washington in its last outing at Maples Pavilion. The last five Cardinal games have all gone under the posted total. div>
Colorado 74
Stanford 69
Arizona State
Overall: 10-12 SU, 9-8 ATS
Pac-12: 3-6 SU, 4-4-1 ATS
Totals: 16-5 O/U
Oregon
Overall: 19-3 SU, 11-8 ATS
Pac-12: 8-1 SU, 8-1 ATS
Totals: 8-13 O/U
Arizona State at Oregon, 11 p.m. ET, FS1
The Ducks haven't had to rally from a loss since Nov. 22, when Dillon Brooks saved the team from a loss to Tennessee, ultimately delivering an overtime win. Oregon last dropped consecutive games last season, doing so only once when it came up empty on the Cal-Stanford trip. For this bounce-back attempt, they'll be back at Matthew Knight Arena, where they've won 38 straight, the second-longest active run behind Kansas (51). Oregon had its program-record 17-game winning streak snapped at Colorado, where it is now 0-7 all-time. The Ducks took 34 3-pointers in the loss to the Buffs and will look to be smarter with their shot selection here, hoping to turn defense and long rebounds into easy buckets. Arizona State has shot the most 3-pointers in the Pac-12, so any hopes of an upset will hinge on a hot-shooting night. Obinna Oleka (13.1, 10.6) has racked up 12 double-doubles and will battle with Oregon's Chris Boucher and Jordan Bell inside, while wings Torian Graham (18.7), Tra Holder (17.7), Kodi Justice (7.7) and point guard Shannon Evans (15.4) can all fill it up. The Sun Devils have virtually no depth on their bench, which could be an issue against a Ducks team loaded with quality pieces. ASU has seen the over prevail in eight of its last nine games, while the under has hit in six of eight Oregon games, including the last three.
Oregon 93
Arizona State 73
Middle Tennessee
Overall: 19-3 SU, 15-6 ATS
C-USA: 9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS
Totals: 7-13-1 O/U
UTSA
Overall: 9-12 SU, 6-8 ATS
C-USA: 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS
Totals: 5-8-1 O/U
Middle Tennessee at Texas-San Antonio, 8 p.m. ET
The Blue Raiders have opened up a two-game lead on their closest pursuer in Conference USA and are looking to improve to 10-0 after surviving a double-digit deficit against Louisiana Tech last time out, winning by 10 themselves. Middle Tennessee leads the league in turnover margin and has surrendered just 61.4 points in league play. They'll face C-USA's top rebounding team in UTSA (40.6), which ranks 14th overall in the country. Las Vegas native Bryon Frohnen leads the Roadrunners with 6.7 boards per game and has earned league Freshman of the Week honors three times already. Frohnen was first-year head coach Steve Henson and is used in multiple roles and has already become one of the program's most important players. Together with burly forward Jeff Beverly, they'll try and contend with leading scorer and rebounder JaCorey Williams (17.3, 7.3) and arguably the top forward in the league, reigning C-USA Tournament MVP Reggie Upshaw (14.7). The Roadrunners rank among the top four in C-USA in field goal percentage defense (.335), scoring defense (69.5) and are strong on the perimeter, which means this may end up low-scoring. The 'under' prevailed in eight of Middle Tennessee's first nine games and in 3-1-1 in UTSA's last five. UTSA has failed to cover in four straight, losing three outright, while the Blue Raiders have dominanted ATS and have lost only one road game. This is the lone meeting of the season between these schools and will mark only their fourth encounter. Middle Tennessee has won twice.
Middle Tennessee 71
UTSA 58
Arizona
Overall: 20-2 SU, 11-9-2 ATS
Pac-12: 9-0 SU, 4-3-2 ATS
Totals: 10-11-1 O/U
Oregon State
Overall: 4-18 SU, 8-12 ATS
Pac-12: 0-9 SU, 5-4 ATS
Totals: 10-10 O/U
Arizona at Oregon State, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN2
The Wildcats are looking to move to 10-0 in league play and are the last unbeaten standing, while the Beavers are winless, sabotaged by injuries that has foiled any hope of returning to the NCAA Tournament after breaking a 26-year drought in 2016. Despite their struggles, Arizona comes in wary of its host since it has only won twice in Corvallis in its last five trips there, posting some pretty puzzling results since last prevailing in 2014. No member of the Arizona roster has ever won at Oregon State's Gill Colisuem, so even though Saturday's visit to Eugene means everything in Pac-12 play, Sean Miller has warned his team to take it one game at a time. Two years ago, OSU beat a Top-10 Arizona squad that reached the Elite 8 at home, so even without its most talented player, Tres Tinkle, still out after breaking his wrist, they loom as dangerous. The 'Cats have shooting guard Allonzo Trier back from suspension and are at full strength, but struggled against Washington State's zone in Sunday's 77-66 win, failing to cover for the second straight game. They'll look to beast on a Beavers defense that has fallen off drastically due to the graduation of former standout Gary Payton II, whose perimeter defense and on-ball pressure helped wreak havoc last season as OSU turned things aroud. Without him, the Beavers don't rank among the top 200 in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, while ranking 303rd, on the offensive end. Arizona has won 14 consecutive games and should come out focused to try and put this away early so Dana Altman can spread out the minutes to ensure his team is as fresh as possible for the weekend showdown at Oregon.
Arizona 80
Oregon State 57
Missouri
Overall: 5-15 SU, 7-9 ATS
SEC: 0-8 SU, 3-4-1 ATS
Totals: 8-9 O/U
Florida
Overall: 16-5 SU, 12-7 ATS
SEC: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS
Totals: 10-9 O/U
Missouri at Florida, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2
The Gators will attempt not to get caught looking ahead to its immense weekend home date with Kentucky. It's not that they can't afford to, but a lack of focus could be a problem if they're looking to win decisively and cover a 22-point spread that is the largest they've been saddled with this season. Missouri arrives in Gainesville winless in SEC play and on a run of 30 consecutive road losses that dates back to Jan. 28, 2014. They've yet to win outside Columbia under Kim Anderson and rank last in the conference in field goal percentage (39.5) and 3-point percentage (27.9) while coming in next-to-last in scoring (69.4). The Tigers run in to a Florida team that responded to its two-game losing streak, tight setbacks against South Carolina and Vandy, by winning at LSU and Oklahoma by over 30 points. It will be fun to see if sophomore center Kevarrius Hayes can duplicate his production against the Sooners, who he torched for career-highs with 20 points and nine rebounds. One of the few things Mizzou does well is rebound, so another big game from Hayes would likely snuff out any hope of an upset. Transfer Canyon Barry, a key contributor off the bench and one of UF's top shooters, is fully healed from an ankle injury that cost him a game, but reserve forward Keith Stone is out with an ear infection. Missouri is 3-7-1 ATS on its current 12-game losing streak and even dropped a non-board home game against Atlantic Sun member Lipscomb. It has lost 13 straight in SEC play.
Florida 86
Missouri 63
