Cnotes 2014 NBA Playoff Best Bets- News,Stats-Trends !

[CNOTES]

Game 3 - Thunder at Clippers

May 8, 2014


Oklahoma City (64-27) at L.A. Clippers (62-29)

Western Conference Semifinals
Game 3 - Series tied 1-1
Tip-off: Friday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Los Angeles -4, Total: 214.5

After a bounce-back win by the Thunder at home on Wednesday night against the Clippers, this heated series heads to L.A. for Friday's Game 3.

Oklahoma City did exactly what was needed in Game 2, successfully defending its home-court in a big 112-103 victory as a 5.5-point favorite. The Thunder shot 50.6% FG in the game while dominating the glass with a 52-36 rebounding advantage. Both PG Russell Westbrook (31 points, 10 assists, 10 rebounds, 3 steals) and SF Kevin Durant (32 points, 12 rebounds, 9 assists, 2 steals) had unbelievable performances in the rout of Los Angeles. The Clippers struggled from three-point range in the contest, making just 9-of-27 shots from behind the arc and had issues with foul trouble, as both PG Chris Paul and C DeAndre Jordan had to ride the bench to avoid more calls.

Hitting the road for Oklahoma City has not been too bad this season, as the club is 27-17 SU (21-22-1 ATS) away from home. Meanwhile, L.A. has one of the biggest home-court advantages with a 37-8 SU record (23-22 ATS) in front of its fans.

These teams have met six times this season, and have flip-flopped SU and ATS wins, with each going 3-3. Going back three seasons it is just as tight, with the Thunder holding a slight 7-6 edge (both SU and ATS).

Both teams have positive betting trends for this pivotal Game 3, as Oklahoma City is now 10-1 ATS versus very good teams (6+ PPG margin) this season, but the Clippers don't fall victim to many losing streaks, going 20-8 ATS after an SU loss this season.

SF Hedo Turkoglu (back) was injured in the first round, and his status for L.A. is uncertain for this contest.

The Thunder have been a fantastic offensive team all season long and have scored 108.0 PPG (49% FG) over their past five games. Their defense has not been quite as good in that timeframe though, allowing their opponents to put up 103.2 PPG (45% FG) against them.

SF Kevin Durant (29.6 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.3 BPG, 1.0 SPG in playoffs) nearly had a triple-double (32 points, 12 rebounds, 9 assists) in Game 2 while hitting 10-of-22 shots. The league's regular season MVP has scored 30+ points in six of his nine postseason games so far this year.

PG Russell Westbrook (26.6 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 7.8 APG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs) recorded his third triple-double in the past five games, and has been very efficient offensively in this series, going 22-for-36 from the floor (61%). He has struggled with turnovers though; coughing up the ball 4.9 times per game so far in the postseason, including 10 turnovers in the first two games of this series.

PF Serge Ibaka (13.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 2.3 BPG in playoffs) finished with 14 points and seven rebounds while adding a block in the Game 2 victory while going 6-for-10 from the floor. He’s been consistent too, scoring between 12 and 17 points in eight of the nine games this postseason.

PG Reggie Jackson (10.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG in playoffs) has been a non-factor in the first two games of this series, averaging just 4.0 PPG (23% FG), 3.0 APG and 2.5 RPG over 21.5 MPG on the floor.

The Clippers boasted the top offense in the league over the regular season (107.9 PPG) and are averaging a tremendous 111.0 PPG (48% FG) in the postseason. Their defense has not done well at all though, giving up 106.9 PPG (47% FG) to their opponents so far in the playoffs.

PG Chris Paul (19.0 PPG, 9.3 APG, 4.4 RPG, 2.8 SPG in playoffs) put up his third straight double-double (17 points, 11 assists) in the Game 2 loss while adding five rebounds and three steals. He picked up his fifth foul early in the fourth quarter though, sitting out much of it and playing just 31 minutes in the defeat. Paul has been stellar from long range in the first two games of this series, hitting 10-of-14 threes.

PF Blake Griffin (22.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 1.3 SPG in playoffs) had a playoff-low 15 points on 5-of-13 shooting Wednesday night while grabbing just six rebounds. He is grabbing significantly fewer rebounds in the playoffs than he did during the regular season (9.5 RPG), and he has yet to record double-digit boards once this postseason. C DeAndre Jordan (11.0 PPG, 13.2 RPG, 3.1 BPG in playoffs) has been more-or-less absent in this series so far, netting 7.0 PPG and grabbing 6.5 RPG while failing to block a shot in either game. His struggles from the free-throw line are well documented, and he is just 2-for-10 from the charity stripe so far in this series.

SG J.J. Redick (14.4 PPG in playoffs) had 18 points on 7-of-10 shooting Wednesday night, but did not contribute in any other areas with zero rebounds, zero assists and one steal. SG Jamal Crawford (15.7 PPG in playoffs) usually provides a spark from the bench, but was just 2-for-13 from the field (1-of-7 threes) in Game 2 with seven points and two steals.

 

[CNOTES]

Friday's Playoff Tips

May 9, 2014


The favorites dominated again on Thursday night in the NBA playoffs with the Heat and Spurs both picking up blowout home wins to gain 2-0 series advantages. So far in the second round, favorites own a 6-2 straight-up and 5-3 record against the spread, as the venue shifts for all four series this weekend. The Pacers travel to D.C. looking for consecutive wins for the second time in the playoffs, while the Thunder ventures west to take on the Clippers.

Pacers at Wizards (-4, 184) – 8:05 PM EST – ESPN

Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

Washington has cashed tickets in all five opportunities in the underdog role this postseason, as the Wizards return home following an 86-82 defeat in Game 2 as five-point ‘dogs. Even though the Wizards were able to steal Game 1, Washington managed to score just 37 points in the second half of Game 2, while the team took several ill-advised three-pointers down the stretch. The big key for the Wizards in Friday’s Game 3 is slowing down the suddenly dominating Roy Hibbert, who is responsible for getting the Pacers back in the series.

The Pacers’ All-Star center faded away in the first round series against the Hawks, putting up a pair of scoreless efforts in Games 5 and 6, while not registering a point in the opener of the conference semifinals. However, Hibbert woke up from his postseason slumber by scoring 28 points on 10-of-13 shooting from the floor, while pulling down a team-high nine rebounds. Hibbert had to pick up the slack for teammates Paul George and David West, who combined to score to just 20 points on 8-of-21 shooting.

The Wizards come back to the Verizon Center where they have split a pair of games in the playoffs against the Bulls, while Randy Wittman’s team wasn’t extremely strong at home during the regular season. VegasInsider.com’s Chris David documents Washington’s struggles on their homecourt, “I’ve been very impressive with the Wizards in the playoffs, especially on the road. Including the first two games in this series, they’re now 5-0 against the number as visitors. While that record is great, I’m hesitant to back them at home because quite frankly they haven’t played well in D.C. this season. Did you know they had the worst home record (22-19) amongst all 16 playoff teams? Even worse, the Wizards were 16-23-2 ATS (41%). The line is short for Game 3, but it’s hard for me to give up points when the first two games in this series have been decided by six and four points.”

Meanwhile, Indiana owns a 1-3 SU/ATS record off a win this postseason, but the Pacers have won and covered two of three road contests, which includes a 1-0 SU/ATS record as a road underdog. The Wizards are an incredible 10-1 ATS the last 11 games dating back to the regular season, while Washington has cashed the ‘over’ in seven of the past nine contests, in spite of hitting the ‘under’ in Game 2 against Indiana.

Thunder at Clippers (-4, 214 ½) – 10:35 PM EST – ESPN

Game 3 – Series tied at 1-1

Two of the top three seeds in the Western Conference have put together a pair of high-scoring games in the conference semifinals, but both contests were decided by double-digits. After the Clippers ripped up the Thunder in the series opener, 122-105, Oklahoma City rebounded with a vengeance in Game 2 with a 112-101 triumph as five-point favorites to even the series at one game apiece.

Kevin Durant was presented with his first Most Valuable Player Award prior to Game 2, as the league’s scoring champion led the way for the Thunder with a 32-point, 12-rebound effort. Amazingly, that wasn’t the best line on his own team, as Russell Westbrook compiled a triple-double with 31 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists, his third triple-double in the postseason. Westbrook outdueled All-Star guard Chris Paul, who was limited to 17 points in Game 2 after drilling 8-of-9 three-pointers in the series opening victory.

The Clippers haven’t covered back-to-back games in the postseason, putting together a 3-6 ATS record through nine playoff games. Los Angeles heads back to Staples Center with a 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS mark, while laying at least seven points in all four games against Golden State. Following Paul’s letdown effort in Game 2, David mentions that the success of the Clippers revolves around the star guard, “It’s obvious that the blueprint for stopping the Clippers is shutting down Paul or put simply, getting him on the bench. In the Clips’ four playoff losses, he’s picked up five fouls in each setback. In the five postseason victories, he’s been whistled for four or less.”

David continues with several interesting trends regarding both squads, “Based on the recent tendencies, most would expect CP3 and L.A. to bounce back on Friday since they haven’t lost back-to-back games in this year’s playoffs. However, it’s hard to ignore the fact that Oklahoma City has gone 6-5 SU and 7-4 ATS as an underdog this season and that includes a 6-1 run both SU and ATS in the last seven games in this role.”

The Thunder is receiving points for the first time in the postseason after being listed as a favorite in all three road games in the opening series against the Grizzlies. In fact, the last time OKC was listed as an underdog came at Staples Center on April 9 as the Thunder outlasted the Clippers, 107-101 as 3 ½-point ‘dogs. Westbrook and Durant combined to score 57 points on just 20-of-50 shooting, while the Clips were limited to 42% shooting from the floor.

 

[CNOTES]

2014 Playoff Results

May 9, 2014


Betting Results

Second Round
Wager Favorites-Underdogs Home-Away
Straight Up 6-2 6-2
Against the Spread 5-3 5-3
Total
Over-Under 5-3


Eastern Conference Semifinals

(E1) Indiana vs. (E5) Washington
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Washington (+4, +155) at Indiana 102-96 Underdog Over (184)
2 Washington at Indiana (-4.5) 86-82 Underdog Under (187)
3 Indiana at Washington - - -
4 Indiana at Washington - - -
5 Washington at Indiana - - -
6 Indiana at Washington - - -
7 Washington at Indiana - - -


(E2) Miami vs. (E6) Brooklyn
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Brooklyn at Miami (-8) 107-86 Favorite Over (192)
2 Brooklyn at Miami (-6.5) 94-82 Favorite Under (192)
3 Miami at Brooklyn - - -
4 Miami at Brooklyn - - -
5 Brooklyn at Miami - - -
6 Miami at Brooklyn - - -
7 Brooklyn at Miami - - -



Western Conference Semifinals

(W2) Oklahoma City vs. (W3) L.A. Clippers
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Los Angeles (+5.5, +200) at Oklahoma City 122-105 Underdog Over (213.5)
2 Los Angeles at Oklahoma City (-5) 112-101 Favorite Under (215)
3 Oklahoma City at Los Angeles - - -
4 Oklahoma City at Los Angeles - - -
5 Los Angeles at Oklahoma City - - -
6 Oklahoma City at Los Angeles - - -
7 Los Angeles at Oklahoma City - - -


(W1) San Antonio vs. (W5) Portland
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Portland at San Antonio (-6.5) 116-92 Favorite Over (207)
2 Portland at San Antonio (-6.5) 114-97 Favorite Over (208.5)
3 San Antonio at Portland - - -
4 San Antonio at Portland - - -
5 Portland at San Antonio - - -
6 San Antonio at Portland - - -
7 Portland at San Antonio - - -

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Dunkel

Oklahoma City at LA Clippers
The Thunder are coming off a 112-101 win in Game 2 and head to LA tonight to face a Clippers team that is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. Oklahoma City is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+4). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

FRIDAY, MAY 9

Game 717-718: Indiana at Washington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 120.417; Washington 122.512
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 2; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 4; 184
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+4); Over

Game 719-720: Oklahoma City at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 125.686; LA Clippers 126.028
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 210
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 4; 214 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+4); Under




NBA
Short Sheet

Friday, May 9

Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards, 8:05 PM
Indiana: Indiana is 30-11 UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season.
Washington: Washington is 61-44 ATS after playing a game as an underdog

Oklahoma City Thunder at LA Clippers, 10:35 PM
Oklahoma City: LA Clippers are 20-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.
LA Clippers: LA Clippers are 17-2 OVER as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, May 9

Washington won five of seven playoff games; home team won six of last seven Wizard-Pacer games- Indiana is 5-4 in playoffs so far; they've lost last two visits here, by 19-13 points. Under is 22-19-3 in Pacers' away games this season. Seven of last nine Wizard games went over the total- four of five series games this season stayed under the total. Hibbert had 28 points in last game, after going scoreless in three of previous four.

Clippers were 9-27 from arc last game, after going 15-29 in Game 1 win; Thunder won three of last four visits to Staples. OC's starters were -76 in Game 1, +69 in Game 2. Clippers are 2-4 vs OC this season. Over is 9-4 in last 13 series games, 25-19 in Clipper home tilts. Six of last eight Thunder games went over total- their bench was still just 6-17 last game, but Westbrook had 32, Durant 31. Ibaka's ten shots were 3rd-most on OC in Game 1- they need a third scorer to step up.

Over is 35-21 in playoffs this season, 5-3 in this round.




NBA

Friday, May 9

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Trend Report
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8:00 PM
INDIANA vs. WASHINGTON
Indiana is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Indiana is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Washington's last 13 games at home
Washington is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games

10:30 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. LA CLIPPERS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games
Oklahoma City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 6 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
The total has gone OVER in 10 of the LA Clippers last 14 games when playing Oklahoma City


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NBA

Friday, May 9

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Game of the Day: Thunder at Clippers
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Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Clippers (-4, 214.5)

Kevin Durant received his MVP award and then played like one, and now he looks to guide Oklahoma City to a 2-1 series lead when the Thunder visit the Los Angeles Clippers for Friday’s Game 3 of the Western Conference semifinals. Durant was named MVP for the first time in his career on Tuesday and recorded 32 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists to help Oklahoma City even the series on Wednesday. Clippers point guard Chris Paul was unable to follow up his terrific Game 1 showing.

Paul stunned everybody by going 8-of-9 from 3-point range and scoring 32 points in the opener but was just 2-for-5 from behind the arc in Game 2. More troublesome for Los Angeles was the inability to slow either Durant or point guard Russell Westbrook (31 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists). “It’s hard, but you know, that’s why their names are Westbrook and Durant,” Clippers coach Doc Rivers said after the 112-101 defeat. “They’re very good players. I still believe that’s only 63 points. You can still win the game and we’ve beaten them before when they’ve both had great games. I didn’t like how they scored. It was too easy.”

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: The Clippers opened as 3-point home faves and have been bet to -4. The total opened at 213.5 and is up to 214.5.

INJURY REPORT: Oklahoma City: G Derek Fisher - questionable (shoulder). Los Angeles: F Hedo Turkoglu - questionable (back).

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Westbrook was a force in Game 2 and recorded his third triple-double of the postseason. The last assist was tainted – call it a gift from the Oklahoma City stat crew – but Westbrook controlled the pace of the game and easily outplayed Paul after putting forth an average performance in the opener. “That’s what I look for every game,” Thunder coach Scott Brooks told reporters. “He’s going to give you everything he has. He’s not going to make every shot, but he’s going to compete.” Westbrook has made 22-of-36 field-goal attempts over the first two contests and has refrained from jacking up the untimely 3-point attempts that plagued him early in the first-round series against Memphis.

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS: Power forward Blake Griffin placed third in the MVP balloting but didn’t look like one of the league’s top players with pedestrian totals of 15 points (on 5-of-13 shooting) and six rebounds in Game 2. Griffin has yet to post a double-double in nine postseason games and is averaging just 6.1 boards since the playoffs began. Though Griffin appeared tentative at times, Rivers feels he’s not far off his game. “He missed point-blank looks at the rim, open shots,” Rivers told reporters. “He’ll get those shots and make them nine times out of 10 on most nights, so you live with those.”

TRENDS:

* Over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.
* Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last seven conference semifinal games.
* Clippers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Over is 6-0 in the Clippers last six home games.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-one percent of the wagers are on the Clippers -4.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, May 9

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INDIANA (61 - 30) at WASHINGTON (49 - 40) - 5/9/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
INDIANA is 22-31 ATS (-12.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
INDIANA is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
WASHINGTON is 48-39 ATS (+5.1 Units) in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 27-18 ATS (+7.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
WASHINGTON is 48-33 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 37-22 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 186-135 ATS (+37.5 Units) on Friday nights since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 322-387 ATS (-103.7 Units) in home games since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 124-162 ATS (-54.2 Units) on Friday nights since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 51-75 ATS (-31.5 Units) in home games after scoring 85 points or less since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 8-4 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 9-3 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (64 - 27) at LA CLIPPERS (62 - 29) - 5/9/2014, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 49-41 ATS (+3.9 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) after allowing 105 points or more this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 98-82 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 57-38 ATS (+15.2 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 198-248 ATS (-74.8 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 159-220 ATS (-83.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 114-153 ATS (-54.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-6 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-6 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
9 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Friday, May 9


Wizards-Pacers matchup trending towards under

The Washington Wizards host the Indiana Pacers in Game 3 of their Eastern Conference semifinal Friday night and the matchup between the two teams have been trending towards the under.

In five meetings this season the two teams have played to the under four times, with game totals ranging between 183.5 and 187.

The game total for Friday's meeting is currently at 184.


Heat, Spurs now 4-0 ATS in second round

It's looking more and more like we are going to see a rematch of last season's NBA Finals with the way the Miami Heat and the San Antonio Spurs are playing.

Both took 2-0 series leads Thursday night and more importantly to bettors they are now a combined 4-0 against the spread in their first couple of games in their second round series.

The Heat were 7-point favorites last night, while the Spurs were 6.5-point faves.

 

[CNOTES]

Record in the playoffs as of THURSDAY Night :

21 - 12 ..............................*****

19 - 18 ..............................DOUBLE PLAY

22 - 20- 1...............................TRIPLE PLAY


Friday, May 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Indiana - 8:00 PM ET Indiana +5 500 *****

Washington - Under 183.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY


Oklahoma City - 10:30 PM ET L.A. Clippers -4 500 TRIPLE PLAY

L.A. Clippers - Over 213.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Dunkel

San Antonio at Portland
The Blazers look for their first win in the series and come into tonight's contest with a 10-3 ATS record in their last 13 games against the Spurs at home. Portland is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blazers favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Portland (+1 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

SATURDAY, MAY 10

Game 721-722: Miami at Brooklyn (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 125.814; Brooklyn 122.497
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 3 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 1 1/2; 188
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-1 1/2); Over

Game 723-724: San Antonio at Portland (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 121.738; Portland 128.793
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 7; 213
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 1 1/2; 209
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+1 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, May 10

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MIAMI (60 - 28) at BROOKLYN (48 - 43) - 5/10/2014, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 7-5 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 8-4 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (68 - 23) at PORTLAND (58 - 32) - 5/10/2014, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 51-31 ATS (+16.9 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 151-118 ATS (+21.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 124-96 ATS (+18.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 66-48 ATS (+13.2 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 50-33 ATS (+13.7 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
PORTLAND is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 14-24 ATS (-12.4 Units) after allowing 105 points or more this season.
PORTLAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 7-5 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 7-5 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, May 10

Heat plays at different level in playoffs- they shot 57/49% in first two series games, winning by 21-12 points, with Big 3 making 42-81 from floor, and Allen scoring 32 in 54:00 off bench- they outscored Brooklyn 110-79 in second half. Nets are 25-19 vs spread at home this year, but if Garnett doesn't get more productive (2-10 from floor), this will be short series. Six of last nine series games stayed under the total.

Spurs led first two games of series 65-39/70-51 at half; Portland has to be competitive before they can even win a game. Aldridge was just 6-23 last game. Spurs made 12-20 from arc in Game 2, putting seven players in double figures after Parker went off with 33 in opener, but they have lost seven of last nine visits to Rip City, winning last one by a hoop- they've won last four games with Portland overall.

Over is 37-23 in playoffs this season, 6-4 in this round.
Favorites are 21-39 in playoffs this season, 5-5 in this round.




NBA

Saturday, May 10

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Trend Report
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8:00 PM
MIAMI vs. BROOKLYN
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
Brooklyn is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games at home
Brooklyn is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games when playing at home against Miami

10:30 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. PORTLAND
San Antonio is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing on the road against Portland
Portland is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Portland's last 11 games

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, May 10

Update

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MIAMI (60 - 28) at BROOKLYN (48 - 43) - 5/10/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BROOKLYN is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) after scoring 85 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after allowing 85 points or less this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 7-5 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 8-4 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

Game 3 - Spurs at Blazers

May 9, 2014


San Antonio (68-23) at Portland (58-32)

Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 3 - San Antonio leads series 2-0
Tip-off: Saturday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: San Antonio -1.5, Total: 209.5

The Trail Blazers are looking to get back in the Western Conference semifinals when they host the Spurs in Saturday's Game 3.

For the second straight game, Portland could not keep up with San Antonio, falling 114-97. Defense has been a struggle all season long for the Blazers (103.6 PPG, 45.2% FG), and has been even worse in the postseason (112.7 PPG, 46.4% FG). On Thursday, they allowed the Spurs to shoot 53.3% from the field, including 12-of-20 from the three-point line (60%), and have now been outshot 52.0% FG to 40.6% FG in this series.

However, Portland has been a terrific home team this season (33-11 SU, 19-25 ATS) and role players usually play better at home than on the road, and that could be big for the Trail Blazers. They are also 51-31 ATS (62%) as a home underdog of three points or less since 1996. But San Antonio has been an excellent road team this season (31-13 SU, 25-19 ATS), and road favorites over the past five seasons coming off 2+ straight home wins are 38-11 ATS (78%) in games involving two winning teams.

This series has been very even in Portland since 1996 with the Spurs holding a slight 19-17 SU (18-17-1 ATS) advantage, but the Blazers have the 3-2 edge (SU and ATS) at home in the past three seasons.

For the second straight game, the Spurs showed once again that they are ready to make a run to the NBA Finals. After having six players score at least 10 points in Game 1, seven players reached double-digit scoring on Thursday. San Antonio has been an offensive juggernaut this season (105.4 PPG, 48.8% FG, 39.9% threes) while also being the best passing team in the league (24.7 APG). On Thursday, the Spurs were passing as well they had all season, dishing out 27 assists while turning the ball over only nine times.

PG Tony Parker did not come close to matching his 33 points in Game 1, but he was once again in control running the Spurs offense with 16 points, 10 assists and just two turnovers. He didn't need to score as much, because many of his teammates had big nights from the field.

SF Kawhi Leonard had 20 points on 8-of-9 FG (4-for-4 threes), five rebounds and two blocks in Game 2, while the bench contributed 50 points on a blistering 20-of-35 FG (57%) and 6-of-9 threes. SG Manu Ginobili (16 points, five rebounds, four assists, three steals, +11 rating) shined brightest off the bench, but SG Marco Belinelli (13 points, 4-of-5 FG, 2-of-3 threes, +9 rating) and C Boris Diaw (12 points on 5-of-6 FG, four rebounds) also contributed nicely.

PF Tim Duncan (10 points and six rebounds) and C Tiago Splitter (10 points and 10 rebounds) did not have big offensive games with 10 points each, but the pair pulled down 16 boards (7 offensive) and did a terrific job holding Trail Blazers superstar LaMarcus Aldridge to 16 points on 6-of-23 shooting. The only negative in the game for the Spurs was their dismal 6-of-14 shooting from the foul line. If they struggle to make free throws again in Game 3 on the road, that could be just what the Trail Blazers need, as they are the best shooting team in the league from the line at 81.5% FT.

If Portland can get back to playing well on the offensive end of the court (106.7 PPG in regular season, 4th in NBA), it has a chance to win the game. With their backs against the wall, the Trail Blazers will have to play more team basketball and share the ball like their counterparts are doing. The team had only 15 assists and 15 turnovers in Game 2, but has shown it can score with the best of them at home, averaging 108.0 PPG (45.9% FG, 36.7% threes) with 23.5 APG at Moda Center.

PF LaMarcus Aldridge had his worst game of the playoffs on Thursday with more missed shots (17) than points (16), but he did grab 10 rebounds. The Trail Blazers have been able to rely on him throughout the playoffs, but needed somebody else to step up in Game 2. SF Nicolas Batum tried to be that player with 21 points and nine boards, but turned the ball over five times and finished with a minus-11 rating.

PG Damian Lillard (19 points, five rebounds and five assists in Game 2) has been terrific all season for the Trail Blazers, but has had problems against the Spurs defense in this series with 18.0 PPG on 14-of-35 FG (40%) and 1-of-7 threes with nearly as many turnovers (seven) as assists (eight). San Antonio has done a great job defending Lillard in the pick-and-roll game, and he will have to make adjustments.

SG Wes Matthews (14 points, seven rebounds and four assists) and PG Will Barton (13 points on 5-of-5 FG) both were able to contribute in the scoring department for the Trail Blazers in Game 2, but Matthews posted a minus-20 rating, which was the second lowest on the team after C Robin Lopez (minus-23 rating, 8 points, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks).

 

[CNOTES]

Game 3 - Heat at Nets

May 9, 2014


Miami (60-28) at Brooklyn (48-43)

Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 3 - Miami leads series 2-0
Tip-off: Saturday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Miami -1.5, Total: 189

The Heat look to remain unbeaten in the 2014 playoffs on Saturday when they visit the Nets in Game 3.

After losing to Brooklyn in all four games played between the teams during the regular season, Miami has dominated this Eastern Conference Semifinals series with wins by 21 points in Game 1 and 12 points in Thursday's Game 2 where it prevailed 94-82. The Nets have had little chance of winning either contest, scoring a mere 84.0 PPG on 44.6% FG, while the Heat have pumped in 100.5 PPG on 53.1% FG.

Miami is now 8-4 SU and 7-5 ATS when playing Brooklyn over the past three seasons, going 3-2 SU (2-3 ATS) at Barclays Center. For the season, the Heat are a mediocre 21-20-2 ATS on the road, but are 8-0 ATS when playing five or fewer games over the previous 14 days, and 10-2 ATS after limiting an opponent to 85 points or less.

Brooklyn has been an excellent home team this season at 30-14 SU and 25-19 ATS (57%), but is only 4-5 (SU and ATS) as a home underdog. But over the past three seasons, the Nets are 12-3 ATS after two straight double-digit losses, and 25-11 ATS after scoring 85 points or less.

There are no significant injuries for either team.

The Heat are off to an ideal start to these NBA playoffs so far, going 6-0 SU (5-1 ATS) and outscoring opponents by 12.0 PPG (101.3 to 89.3) and outshooting them by nearly five percent (49.4% FG to 44.8% FG). The series now shifts to Brooklyn, where Miami can expect a much more competitive opponent.

SF LeBron James (27.3 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 5.0 APG in playoffs) has not needed to take matters into his own hands in this series, attempting just 33 shots (19-of-33 FG, 58%) and averaging 22.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.0 APG and combined +16 rating.

One Heat player who has really stepped up is SG Ray Allen (7.5 PPG, 3.8 RPG in playoffs). Allen didn’t play too well against the Bobcats but the sharpshooter has logged 27.0 MPG in this series and is averaging 16.0 PPG and 6.0 RPG. PF Chris Bosh (15.2 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.2 BPG in playoffs) has also flourished in this series, averaging 16.5 PPG and 8.5 RPG in the first two games.

SG Dwyane Wade (16.3 PPG, 4.5 APG, 4.0 RPG in playoffs) is averaging 14.0 PPG, 6.0 APG and 5.5 RPG in just 34.0 MPG this series, and continues to look refreshed after a season in which he battled injuries and missed games in order to rest. The Heat have not needed to rely on Wade’s scoring just yet, and until they do, the superstar will continue to have fresh legs.

The Nets have been an excellent offensive team at home this season (100.0 PPG on 47.6% FG) and right now they will desperately need to pick up the pace on offense. Trailing 2-0 in the series, Brooklyn cannot afford to give up one of these next two games. But this club has virtually no chance of winning as long as PG Deron Williams (15.0 PPG, 5.3 APG in playoffs) is struggling. Williams was miserable in Game 2, failing to score a single point (0-for-9 FG) with a minus-18 rating in 37 minutes of play. The Nets will need their point guard to get back on track and start scoring, or things will only get worse.

SF Paul Pierce (12.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG in playoffs) scored 13 points in 34 minutes in Game 2, which was actually an increase from his eight points in Game 1. Brooklyn will need their veteran forward to continue being aggressive, as he is one of their only experienced shot makers on the team.

SG Joe Johnson (20.3 PPG in playoffs) also had 13 points (6-of-14 FG, 0-for-4 threes) on Thursday, but he had 17 points in Game 1 on less attempts (7-of-11 FG, 3-of-6 threes). Johnson has been the Nets’ go-to scorer all season and in the first round, he was outstanding. If Johnson can't establish himself as a presence on Saturday, the Nets will likely be heading into Game 4 on the brink of elimination.

PF Mirza Teletovic (8.6 PPG in playoffs) got hot in Game 2, finishing with 20 points (7-of-12 FG, 6-of-9 threes) in 26 minutes. The Nets may need to go to Teletovic sooner if they find themselves struggling to score early in Game 3.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Tip Sheet

May 9, 2014


**Miami at Brooklyn**

-- As of late Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Miami (60-28 straight up, 42-4-2 against the spread) installed as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 189.

-- Miami took a 2-0 advantage in this best-of-seven Eastern Conference semifinal series by capturing a 94-82 win in Thursday's Game 2. The Heat covered the number as a seven-point home favorite, while the 176 combined points dipped 'under' the 191.5-point total. LeBron James led the way with a game-high 22 points, while Chris Bosh finished with 18. Dwyane Wade produced 14 points, seven rebounds and seven assists, while Ray Allen scored 13 points off the bench behind 3-of-5 shooting from 3-point range. Mario Chalmers was also in double figures with 11 points and he handed out five helpers.

-- Brooklyn (48-43 SU, 46-44-1 ATS) trailed by only two points with 6:54 remaining in the fourth quarter of Game 2, but a 10-2 run by the Heat created separation and got them ahead of the number to stay. Mirza Teletovic buried six treys and had a team-best 20 points in the losing effort. Shaun Livingston had 15 points, while Joe Johnson and Paul Pierce finished with 13 points apiece. The Nets might have won if they had received anything out of veteran point guard Deron Williams, who tasted a bagel in a scoreless night. Williams missed all nine of his shots from the field and didn't get to the charity stripe. He had a team-worst -18 plus/minus rating.

-- Brooklyn won the rebounding battle in Game 2 with a 43-36 edge. Kevin Garnett pulled down a team-high 12 boards in just 20 minutes of playing time.

-- Miami led by just three at intermission of Game 1 following a buzzer-beating 3-ball by Williams. However, Miami outscored Brooklyn by 18 in the second half en route to a 107-86 win as an eight-point home favorite. The 193 combined points slipped 'over' the 192.5-point total. James scored a game-high 20 points thanks to 10-of-15 shooting from the floor. James didn't settle for any attempts from downtown, relentlessly attacking the rim all night long. Bosh added 15 points and 11 rebounds, while Ray Allen scored 19 points.

-- In the Game 1 setback, Williams and Johnson shared team-high scoring honors with 17 points apiece. Williams made 7-of-10 shot from the field, while Johnson drained 7-of-11 attempts. Marcus Thornton was also in double figures with 11 points from off the bench.

-- VegasInsider.com's Chris David came away from the first two games of this series with these opinions: "After watching the first two games, I wouldn’t invest any money on the Nets or Heat in Game 3. As silly as it sounds, outside of a couple of halves the Heat haven’t looked great in the postseason, yet they’re still 6-0 in the playoffs. This Miami team isn’t nearly as good as the past two championship clubs but fortunately for them, the rest of the East has regressed as well."

-- David is passing on the side but is bullish on the total. He explained, "While I’m not high on either side in Game 3, I feel the total should be given a second-look on Saturday. Oddsmakers often adjust too much in the playoffs and they did so here. The total in Games 1 and 2 closed near 192 and now we’re staring at a number close to 189. Even though the tempo hasn’t been fast so far, I’m still surprised that we’ve only seen a combined 33 free-throw attempts in Game 1 and just 32 on Thursday. I expect those numbers to increase on Saturday and the freebies should help this game go ‘over’ the number."

-- Bosh is averaging 16.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per game in this series so far. He also had three blocked shots in Game 2.

-- Sportsbook.ag has Miami at -3500 for the updated series price, with Brooklyn at +1500 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $1,500).

-- The 'over' is 48-40 overall for Miami, 23-20 in its road assignments.

-- The 'over' is 46-41-4 overall for the Nets, 23-19-2 in their home games.

-- ABC will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**San Antonio at Portland**

-- As of late Friday afternoon, most spots had San Antonio (68-23 SU, 48-43 ATS) listed as a 1.5-point 'chalk' with a total of 209.

-- San Antonio has dealt out woodshed treatment twice to take a commanding 2-0 series lead over Portland in the West semifinals. The Spurs cruised to a 114-97 win in Thursday's Game 2 at AT&T Center. They easily cashed tickets as seven-point home 'chalk.' San Antonio outscored the Trail Blazers 41-25 in the second quarter to take a 19-point halftime lead. Seven Spurs scored in double figures led by Kawhi Leonard's 20 points on 8-of-9 shooting from the field. The San Diego St. product drained all four of his 3-point attempts. Tony Parker finished with 16 points, 10 assists and five rebounds, while Tiago Splitter added 10 points and 10 boards.

-- Gregg Popovich's squad won Game 1 by a 116-92 count as a 6.5-point home favorite. The 208 combined points slithered 'over' the 206.5-point total. Parker scored a game-high 33 points and dished out nine assists. Marco Belinelli came off the bench to contribute 19 points, while Leonard produced 16 points and nine rebounds. Tim Duncan had a double-double with 12 points, 11 boards and a pair of blocked shots.

-- In the Game 1 defeat, LaMarcus Aldridge had 32 points and 14 rebounds. Damian Lillard finished with 17 points, but he committed six turnovers compared to three assists. He also had no answer for Parker at the defensive end.

-- In the Game 2 loss, Nicolas Batum scored a team-high 21 points for Portland. Batum knocked down 9-of-13 shots and pulled down nine rebounds. Lillard played much better with 19 points, five boards and five assists compared to only one turnover. However, Aldridge couldn't buy a bucket. He connected on just 6-of-23 shots and had 16 points and 10 boards.

-- Portland (58-32 SU, 46-44 ATS) got a game-winning trey at the buzzer from Lillard to eliminate Houston in last Friday's Game 6 at home. But Lillard has hit only 1-of-7 from deep in the first two games of this series.

-- Portland's bench is getting crushed by San Antonio's second unit. The Spurs reserves have scored 100 points compared to only 37 from the Trail Blazers' bench.

-- The Trail Blazers went 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS as home underdogs this season and the two losses came by a combined four points to the Warriors (113-112) and Thunder (98-95). One of the victories came against the Spurs, a 115-105 decision on Nov. 2.

-- VI's David leans to the Spurs in Saturday's Game 3. He said, "The Spurs have put forth back-to-back offensive clinics in this series and the bench play has been superb. The reserves scored 50 points in both Game 1 and 2 for San Antonio. If the Spurs produce efforts like this on a nightly basis, it’s hard to see anybody stopping them. I’m not strong on San Antonio for Game 3 but that would be my lean because it’s hard for me to back a Portland club that is 0-6 ATS in its last six. I’d rather press the hot team that has been great on the road (31-13) all season than play the ‘due’ factor against a club that has taken back-to-back body blows."

-- The Spurs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games at Portland.

-- The 'over' is 51-39-1 overall for the Spurs, hitting in their last five games and seven of the last eight.

-- The 'over' is 52-37-1 overall for the Trail Blazers.

-- The 'over' is 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these rivals.

-- Sportsbook's updated series price: San Antonio -1800, Portland +1050.

-- Tip-off on ESPN is scheduled for 10:35 p.m. Eastern.

 

[CNOTES]

2014 Playoff Results

May 10, 2014


Betting Results

Second Round
Wager Favorites-Underdogs Home-Away
Straight Up 6-4 6-4
Against the Spread 5-5 5-5
Total
Over-Under 6-4


Eastern Conference Semifinals

(E1) Indiana vs. (E5) Washington
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Washington (+4, +155) at Indiana 102-96 Underdog Over (184)
2 Washington at Indiana (-4.5) 86-82 Underdog Under (187)
3 Indiana (+5, +180) at Washington 85-63 Underdog Under (183.5)
4 Indiana at Washington - - -
5 Washington at Indiana - - -
6 Indiana at Washington - - -
7 Washington at Indiana - - -


(E2) Miami vs. (E6) Brooklyn
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Brooklyn at Miami (-8) 107-86 Favorite Over (192)
2 Brooklyn at Miami (-6.5) 94-82 Favorite Under (192)
3 Miami at Brooklyn - - -
4 Miami at Brooklyn - - -
5 Brooklyn at Miami - - -
6 Miami at Brooklyn - - -
7 Brooklyn at Miami - - -



Western Conference Semifinals

(W2) Oklahoma City vs. (W3) L.A. Clippers
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Los Angeles (+5.5, +200) at Oklahoma City 122-105 Underdog Over (213.5)
2 Los Angeles at Oklahoma City (-5) 112-101 Favorite Under (215)
3 Oklahoma City (+4.5, +165) at Los Angeles 118-112 Underdog Over (215)
4 Oklahoma City at Los Angeles - - -
5 Los Angeles at Oklahoma City - - -
6 Oklahoma City at Los Angeles - - -
7 Los Angeles at Oklahoma City - - -


(W1) San Antonio vs. (W5) Portland
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Portland at San Antonio (-6.5) 116-92 Favorite Over (207)
2 Portland at San Antonio (-6.5) 114-97 Favorite Over (208.5)
3 San Antonio at Portland - - -
4 San Antonio at Portland - - -
5 Portland at San Antonio - - -
6 San Antonio at Portland - - -
7 Portland at San Antonio - - -

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Short Sheet

Saturday, May 10

Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets, 8:05 ET
Miami: 165-121 UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more
Brooklyn: 9-0 ATS after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more

San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers, 10:35 ET
San Antonio: 22-13 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins
Portland: 14-26 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday, May 10

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 8:00 PM ET Brooklyn +1 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Brooklyn - Over 188 500 TRIPLE PLAY

San Antonio - 10:30 PM ET San Antonio +1 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Portland - Over 207.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

Record in the playoffs as of FRIDAY Night :

22 - 12 ..............................*****

20 - 18 ..............................DOUBLE PLAY

23 - 21- 1...............................TRIPLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

		Record in the playoffs as of Saturday Night : 23 - 12 ..............................***** 20 - 18 ..............................DOUBLE PLAY 28 - 22- 1...............................TRIPLE PLAY Last 3 days: Date WLT Pct Net Units Record 05/10/14 4-*0-*0 100.00% +*2000 Detail 05/09/14 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail 05/08/14 4-*0-*0 100.00% +*2000 Detail

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[Dmoemonie]

Good Job

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Dunkel

Indiana at Washington
The Wizards look to bounce back from their 85-63 loss in Game 3 as they host a Pacers team that is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Washington is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wizards favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-4 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

SUNDAY, MAY 11

Game 725-726: Oklahoma City at LA Clippers (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 124.155; LA Clippers 126.813
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 2 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 5; 215 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+5); Under

Game 727-728: Indiana at Washington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 118.004; Washington 125.324
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 7 1/2; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 4 1/2; 180
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-4 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, May 11

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OKLAHOMA CITY (65 - 27) at LA CLIPPERS (62 - 30) - 5/11/2014, 3:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) on Sunday games over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) after allowing 105 points or more this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 99-82 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 159-221 ATS (-84.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 114-154 ATS (-55.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-6 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-6 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
10 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANA (62 - 30) at WASHINGTON (49 - 41) - 5/11/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
INDIANA is 12-21 ATS (-11.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
WASHINGTON is 48-40 ATS (+4.0 Units) in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 29-11 ATS (+16.9 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 57-41 ATS (+11.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 48-34 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 322-388 ATS (-104.8 Units) in home games since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 77-114 ATS (-48.4 Units) in home games after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 51-76 ATS (-32.6 Units) in home games after scoring 85 points or less since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 8-5 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 10-3 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
9 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, May 11

Washington shot 33% in awful Game 3 loss; Beal/Nene were combined nine for 33 from floor. Home team won six of last eight Wizard-Pacer games- Indiana is 6-4 in playoffs so far; they've lost two of last three visits here. Under is 23-19-3 in Pacers' away games this season. Seven of last ten Wizard games went over the total- five of six series games this season stayed under the total. Hibbert had 42 points in last two games, after going scoreless in three of previous four.

Clippers were 17-53 from arc last two games, after going 15-29 in Game 1 win; Thunder won four of last five visits to Staples. OC's starters were -76 in Game 1, +69 in Game 2; subs were +28 last game, with LA's bench -31, making 9-28 from floor. Clippers are 2-5 vs OC this season. Over is 10-4 in last 13 series games, 26-19 in Clipper home tilts. Seven of last nine Thunder games went over total. Ibaka was 9-10 in last game; Jackson/Butler gave good bench support, going 9-18.

Over is 39-23 in playoffs this season, 8-4 in this round.
Favorites are 22-40 in playoffs this season, 6-6 in this round.




NBA

Sunday, May 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3:30 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. LA CLIPPERS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
Oklahoma City is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the LA Clippers last 5 games at home
LA Clippers are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games at home

8:00 PM
INDIANA vs. WASHINGTON
Indiana is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games
Indiana is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 10 games
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Indiana


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA

Sunday, May 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Pacers at Wizards
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards (-4.5, 180.5)

Pacers lead series 2-1.

Whatever it was the Indiana Pacers lost in the second half of the regular season and through the first eight games of the playoffs, they appear to have found it again. The Washington Wizards are now back on their heels and will try to avoid falling into a 3-1 hole in the Eastern Conference semifinals when they host the Pacers in Game 4 on Sunday. Roy Hibbert came out of his funk in Game 2 and is leading a suffocating defense for Indiana.

The Wizards controlled the pace in Game 1 and looked like they would cruise to a series win before Hibbert, who had been scoreless in three of the previous four playoff games, went for a season-high 28 points to guide the Pacers to a win in Game 2. The All-Star center kept that form in Game 3 and put his stamp on the game on the defensive end as Washington was held to 32.9 percent shooting in an 85-63 loss. The Wizards scored a regular season-low 66 points in a loss to Indiana on Jan. 10 and set the franchise low for points in the Game 3 loss.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: The Wizards opened as 4.5-point faves, were bet to -5 and are back to -4.5. The total opened at 180 and is up a half-point to 180.5.

INJURY REPORT: N/A.

ABOUT THE PACERS: Indiana made its mark in the first half of the regular season as a defensive juggernaut, running up the best record in the league on the strength of that defense before slumping badly over the final two months. The Pacers wanted to get back to that rugged style in the postseason and finally accomplished that over the last two games. “This was probably the ugliest game of the postseason thus far,” Paul George told reporters of Game 3. “This is our style of basketball. Every now and then this team is fortunate to get hot offensively, but what we do is play defense.” George carried the team offensively with 23 points in Game 3 while Hibbert added 14 - his second-highest mark of the playoffs.

ABOUT THE WIZARDS: Washington’s front line of Nene and Marcin Gortat was a big advantage in Game 1 with Hibbert going scoreless but the two combined for only 12 points on 5-of-21 shooting in Game 3. “(Game 3) was the worst offensive night we’ve had,” Nene told reporters. “Looked like we tried to miss shots.” The backcourt struggled to make up the difference as Bradley Beal posted his lowest scoring total of the series and John Wall committed seven of the team’s 18 turnovers. “This really was a clunker for us,” Wizards coach Randy Wittman said. “It was our first one (of the playoffs). We’ve got to let it go. We can play better.”

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
* Wizards are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.

CONSENSUS: Sixty-nine percent of wagers are on the Pacers -4.5.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA

Sunday, May 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pacers/Wizards: The Game Inside the Game
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

How much fun is it to be able to talk about a team named Wizards with a reference back to Oz? But that really may be the starting point as Game #4 approaches – a young team is dealing head-on with the notion that they “are not in Kansas anymore”. And dealing with that notion is tantamount as you build your handicap.

Earlier in this series there was a take on how under-rated the Washington defense has been by the betting markets (http://www.***********/articles/arti...?theArt=371887), and so far in this matchup they are holding the Pacers to 89 ppg on 42.3 percent shooting. But that has only been good enough to win one of the three games. The defense has held up well as the playoff pressure increases because that part of the game is largely about intensity and effort. But offense requires poise, precision and proper decision-making, which for the Wizards has been an entirely different matter.

The Washington offense was a disaster in Game #3 on Friday, failing to top 18 points in any quarter, on 32.9 percent shooting, with an alarming count of 17 turnovers vs. only 10 assists. Even when unguarded it was dismal, with an 11-21 from the FT line. But instead of isolating that as a single game, was it a continuation of a “Kansas” moment from Wednesday at Indianapolis?

The Wizards led the Pacers 77-74 with 5:00 remaining in that game. It was a chance to go up 2-0 by sweeping the road set, and to psychologically take control of the series. That created a heady moment for a young team that did not even harbor significant playoff aspirations when the season began. And they did not handle it well.

Washington made two baskets over the final 5:00, one of them an easy alley-up finish by Marcin Gortat. Outside of that it was 1-8 from the field, with six of the shots coming from 3-point range. A couple of them were hideous, with John Wall twice forcing triples early in the shot clock after offensive rebounds had extended a possession. If someone called that a meltdown, you should not argue the point.

That carried over into Friday, and now creates a crisis of confidence on offense for a team that has produced counts of 18-17-16-12-18 over the last five quarters. It is a crisis that becomes magnified by the fact that the Pacers were #1 in the league in defensive efficiency this season, by more than a full point per 100 possessions better than anyone else, and are a full 3.1 points lower than anyone else in the post-season. Of course we negate the latter somewhat because of the weak competition, but Washington now represents 144 minutes of that competition.

Your starting point to properly attack Game #4 is not about Zig Zag trends involving beaten home favorites, or any lingering anti-Indiana notions that are still in the air. It is whether or not the Wizards can be trusted to play with poise on the offensive end, and show the mental toughness to work deep into a shot clock to make something good happen. You need not fear their ability to guard; that will be there. But even with five playoff wins under their belts already, the offense remains an open issue. In this game, it may be “the” open issue.


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NBA

Sunday, May 11

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Thunder at Clippers: What bettors need to know
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Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Clippers (-5, 214.5)

The Los Angeles Clippers are in must-win mode while the visiting Oklahoma City Thunder are in position to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the series in Sunday’s Game 4. After the Clippers cruised to a 17-point road win in the opener, Oklahoma City has bounced back with two solid victories as Los Angeles struggles to slow the Thunder attack. Oklahoma City has averaged 115 points in its two victories and shot 55.7 percent from the field in Friday’s 118-112 triumph.

Clippers coach Doc Rivers says the defensive play needs to improve and point guard Chris Paul is gearing up for a battle to knot the series. “We definitely have got to play with a sense of urgency,” Paul told reporters. “We understand that it’s not over. It’s not time to hang our heads.” Oklahoma City stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have played solid back-to-back games while power forward Serge Ibaka stepped up with 20 points on 9-of-10 shooting in Game 3. “He plays with every ounce of fiber he has for his team,” Thunder coach Scott Brooks said of Ibaka. “He’s really developed a nice midrange shot.”

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Remember all that silliness about Durant being “Mr. Unreliable” at the beginning of the month? His play is certainly again superior to the headline writers in Oklahoma City after a superb 36-point, eight-rebounds, six-assist outing in Game 3. Durant is averaging 31 points, eight rebounds and 6.3 assists in the series while Westbrook is averaging 27.7 points, nine assists and 7.3 rebounds. Just as important in Game 3 was the play of Ibaka and backups like Caron Butler, Reggie Jackson and Steven Adams. Butler and Jackson scored 14 points apiece and Adams collected nine rebounds.

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS: Los Angeles typically excels in transition but that has been an ingredient missing in this series due to substandard defense and poor rebounding. The Clippers have just 37 fast-break points and it is hard to get out and run the floor when you have been outrebounded by an average of 14.3 boards. “In this series so far, we really haven’t gotten in transition at all,” coach Doc Rivers told reporters on Saturday. “They have taken that away from us because they’re scoring on us. We’ve got to do a better job of getting stops in a row so we can get some kind of offensive rhythm in transition.”

TRENDS:

* Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Over is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings.
* Over is 7-0 in Clippers last seven home games.
* Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Westbrook is shooting 58 percent from the field in the series after an accuracy rate of just 38.2 percent in the first round against Memphis.

2. Los Angeles PF Blake Griffin had his best outing of the series with 34 points and eight rebounds in Game 3.

3. Butler is 6-of-22 shooting in the series – 5-of-12 from 3-point range but only 1-of-10 from inside the arc.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Sunday, May 11


Underdogs cash in for hoops bettors Saturday

The underdog had a 2-0 night against the spread for bettors in NBA Playoff matchups Saturday.

The Brooklyn Nets won outright in their Game 3 meeting with the Miami Heat, covering as 1-point home dogs in a 104-90 victory to get back into their series.

In the Western Conference, the San Antonio Spurs continued their basketball clinic versus the Portland Trail Blazers, winning 118-103 on Portland's floor as a 1-point road dog.

The dog is now 4-0 ATS in the past two nights.

On Sunday's board, the Oklahoma City Thunder is a 5-point underdog at the Los Angeles Clippers and the Indiana Pacers is a 4.5-point dog at the Washington Wizards.