Cnotes 2014 NBA Playoff Best Bets- News,Stats-Trends !

[CNOTES]

Western Conference Tips

May 2, 2014


**Spurs at Mavericks**

-- As of early this morning, most books had San Antonio (65-22 straight up, 45-42 against the spread) favored by three for tonight's Game 6 at Dallas. Gamblers can back the Mavericks on the money line for a +135 return (risk $100 to win $135), while the total is 198.5. The Spurs are favored by 1.5 for first-half bets, with the total at 99.

-- Gregg Popovich's club has won back-to-back games after falling behind 2-1 in this best-of-seven series. The Spurs captured a 109-103 victory in Wednesday's Game 5 at AT&T Center, but Dallas hooked up its supporters with a backdoor cover as a 6.5-point road underdog. Tony Parker led five players in double figures with 23 points and five assists without a turnover. Manu Ginobili produced another stellar stat line, finishing with 19 points, five assists, four rebounds and three steals. The veteran guard committed only one turnover in 30 minutes of playing time. Tim Duncan added 16 points, 12 boards and three blocked shots.

-- Dallas (51-36 SU, 49-38 ATS) got spectacular performances out of Vince Carter and Dirk Nowitzki in the Game 5 defeat. In only 27 minutes of action, the 37-year-old Carter had 28 points on 10-of-16 shooting from the field. The University of North Carolina product drained 7-of-9 attempts from 3-point range. Nowitzki scored 26 points and pulled down 15 rebounds. Monta Ellis had 21 points and six assists.

-- In Game 3 at Dallas, Carter hit a buzzer-beating 3-pointer to lift his team to a 109-108 win as a 4.5-point home underdog. In Game 4 at the same venue, San Antonio won a 93-89 decision but failed to take the cash as a 4.5-point road 'chalk.'

-- Ginobili is enjoying a remarkable series, averaging 19.6 points, 4.4 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 1.8 steals per game.

-- After being ejected from Game 4 and suspended for Game 5, Dallas will get power forward DeJuan Blair back tonight. Blair averaged 6.4 points and 4.7 rebounds per game during the regular season. Before getting tossed in Monday's home loss, Blair had 12 points and 11 rebounds. The University of Pittsburgh product had eight points and seven boards in the Game 2 win at San Antonio.

-- The 'over' has hit in three of the last four games.

-- The 'over' is 47-39-1 overall for the Spurs, 24-19 in their road assignments.

-- The 'over' is 48-39 overall for the Mavs, 25-18 in their home games.

-- NBA TV will have the telecast at 8:05 p.m. Eastern.

**Rockets at Trail Blazers**

-- Houston (56-31 SU, 43-42-2 ATS) sliced the series deficit to 3-2 with a 108-98 win as a 4.5-point home favorite. The 206 combined points fell 'under' the 214.5-point total. Dwight Howard led the way with 22 points, 14 rebounds and three blocked shots. Jeremy Lin and Chandler Parson chipped in 21 and 20 points apiece, while James Harden had 17 points, seven assists and three steals.

-- As of early this morning, most spots had Portland (57-30 SU, 46-41 ATS) installed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 213. The Rockets were +155 on the money line (risk $100 to win $155). For first-half wagers, the Trail Blazers were favored by two with a 107-point tally.

-- In the Game 5 loss, Wesley Matthews scored a game-high 27 points by knocking down 5-of-9 shots from 3-point range. Damian Lillard finished with 26 points, eight rebounds, seven assists and four steals. LaMarcus Aldridge was held to a series-low eight points, as he made only 3-of-12 shots from the field. Aldridge had scored 46, 43, 23 and 29 points in the first four games of the series.

-- Lillard has been terrific throughout the series, averaging 25.6 points and 7.4 assists per game.

-- Harden is scoring at a 25.4 PPG clip in the first five games, but he's shooting only 34.7 percent from the field and just 25.0 percent from beyond the arc.

-- If Portland wins tonight, it will snap a string of six straight exits from the first round of the postseason.

-- Until the 'under' appeared in Game 5, the 'over' had hit in nine consecutive head-to-head meetings between these teams.

-- Houston owns a 7-1-1 spread record in its last nine games at Portland.

-- The 'over' is 50-36-1 overall for the Trail Blazers, 24-18-1 in their home games.

-- The 'over' is 48-37-2 for the Rockets, 24-18-1 in their road contests.

-- Tip-off on ESPN is scheduled for 10:35 p.m. Eastern.

 

[CNOTES]

Game 6 - Raptors at Nets

May 1, 2014


Toronto (51-36) at Brooklyn (46-41)

Eastern Conference First Round
Game 6 - Toronto leads series 3-2
Tip-off: Friday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Brooklyn -5, Total: 191

The Raptors have won two straight games to give them a 3-2 series lead over the Nets, but now the series shifts back to the U.S. for an elimination game on Friday night.

Toronto was on the ropes when it visited Brooklyn for Game 4, but it pulled out a gutsy 87-79 victory and followed it up with a 115-113 home win in Game 5 in Toronto on Wednesday in a contest where both teams shot lights-out, combining for 50.7% FG and 46.9% threes. The Raptors now lead the series 3-2 and are 12-5 SU (6-9-2 ATS) in their past 17 games. They are also a strong 27-15-1 ATS (23-20 SU) on the road this season, and 4-3-1 ATS (3-5 SU) at Barclays Center over the past three seasons.

The Nets have been great at home, posting a 24-19 ATS mark (29-14 SU) this season, but they have been in a three-week funk, going 3-7 SU (2-7-1 ATS) over their past 10 games.

Both teams have positive betting trends though, as the Raptors are 21-9 ATS after two straight games giving up 10 or less offensive rebounds this season. They are also 6-2 ATS this season after two straight games where their opponent was called for 25+ fouls.

Brooklyn, however, is 8-1 ATS this season after trailing in its previous game by 15+ points at the half. They are also 5-1 ATS this season after allowing 60+ points in the first half of their previous game.

While Toronto star PG Kyle Lowry (knee) is probable, it's still not clear if SF Landry Fields (back) will return for the Raptors after missing Game 4.

Toronto pulled out a close one in Game 5 behind a brilliant performance from PG Kyle Lowry (21.8 PPG, 5.2 APG, 4.4 RPG this series). Lowry was unstoppable for the Raptors, finishing with 36 points (11-of-19 FG, 6-of-9 threes) and six assists in 38 minutes of play. With his jumper falling, Lowry is a completely different player, and his speed and toughness makes him very tough to contain for Deron Williams and the other Nets guards.

SG DeMar DeRozan (24.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.0 APG this series) had 23 points (5-of-12 FG, 12-of-13 FT), six rebounds and five assists in 39 minutes for Toronto. DeRozan was getting to the line at will, and hit a number of clutch free throws down the stretch. His disaster of a Game 1 (14 points on 3-of-13 FG) is behind him as he has now scored 23 or more points in four straight games, but has shot below 43% from the floor in all four of those contests.

PG Greivis Vasquez (12.0 PPG, 6.6 APG, 4.2 RPG this series) continues to give the Raptors some huge minutes off the bench. He had 15 points (6-of-12 FG, 3-of-5 threes) and six rebounds in Game 5, and Toronto will likely continue to play him next to Kyle Lowry in two-point-guard lineups for the remainder of the series.

C Jonas Valanciunas (12.8 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 1.2 BPG this series) will need to continue to be a presence in the paint on both sides as the Raptors attempt to close out the series.

The Nets had a 2-1 series lead and were playing Game 4 at home, but despite their 53.3% FG clip (47.8% threes) that night, they were unable to pick up the win and now find themselves on the brink of elimination.

SG Joe Johnson (21.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG this series) had 30 points (13-of-23 FG, 3-of-6 threes), five rebounds and three assists in 38 minutes for the Nets in the loss. He was the one Brooklyn player who was able to get it going offensively, and his team will need him to continue to hit shots from the outside if it is going to extend this to a Game 7.

Another player who has been performing well offensively is PF Mirza Teletovic (10.0 PPG, 3.4 RPG this series). Teletovic has increased his averages to 14.5 PPG and 6.0 RPG over the past two games, and his ability to score in a hurry provides a huge spark for the Nets. He could be in line for a big bump in minutes with the way he is shooting the ball.

PG Deron Williams (16.8 PPG, 6.2 APG this series) has been way too inconsistent for the Nets in this series. He had 13 points and nine assists in Wednesday's loss, but is averaging 23.0 PPG in the Brooklyn victories. He will need to look to be more aggressive as a scorer, as his team has been more successful with him attacking the basket as opposed to playing it safe.

SF Paul Pierce (14.4 PPG this series) had just 10 points in Game 5 after scoring 22 points in Game 4. The Nets will need their veteran forward to hit his open looks and make plays when there is seemingly nothing there.

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

-- Saturday will be the first time ever the NBA will have three Game 7's on the same day.

-- As if this story couldn't get stranger, New York Post is reporting that Donald Sterling has prostate cancer.

-- Southern Miss hired former Nebraska coach Doc Sadler as its new basketball coach; good hire for the Golden Eagles.

-- Former Colts' GM Bill Polian thinks the Browns want Johnny Manziel.

-- Duke-Wisconsin will be the best ACC-Big 14 challenge game in December.

-- Rough day in Boston, with Bruins losing in OT and Red Sox getting swept in a doubleheader by Tampa Bay.

*****

Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Random stuff with the weekend here......

13) Most surprising to me about baseball’s instant replay isa lack of clarity of when the first baseman actually has the ball on close plays on ground balls. Never dawned on me that this would become an issue, but I think everyone is getting the hang of it and there have been less screw-ups the last week or so, at least in the games I’ve watched, and I watch a lot of them.

12) That said, I’m not a fan of the manager walking out to the ump to stall for time as his henchmen decide whether to challenge the call. Seems like an NFL-like flag system would be better, but that’s just me. I am not missing manager/umpire arguments- never thought they added anything to the game, other than a chance for losing managers to vent their frustrations at a stationary target.

11) Jon Gruden was very, very enthusiastic about Fresno State’s Derek Carr as a QB prospect, much moreso than Johnny Manziel. Have to read between the lines a little; listen to what he said to Carr, then what he didn’t say to Manziel.

10) Tremendous college hoop tournament in Brooklyn Thanksgiving week this fall; VCU, Michigan, Villanova, Oregon. Two excellent twinbills there.

9) I’m little concerned for Jameis Winston; he dodged a bullet last fall with the sexual assault incident not becoming a major problem, now he gets busted shoplifting crab legs. By itself, no big deal, but at this time last year, no one knew who he was; now he has two brushes with the law. That’s a red flag; maybe its nothing, but he needs to keep his nose clean, or this could wind up being a sad story. We’ve had enough of those lately.

8) Last bigtime basketball recruit of this year’s class was Myles Turner; he signs with Texas, pushing Rick Barnes’ team back into the preseason top 25.

7) No easy way to get from Calgary to Glens Falls, NY, but that’s where the Flames are supposedly moving their AHL farm club to. Glens Falls has a 6,500-seat arena that is excellent for minor league hockey; it is Jimmer Fredette’s hometown and 45 miles north of Armadillo World HQ. Devils have a farm team in Albany, so that’s a natural rivalry right there.

6) Had no idea there is a statue of Mary Tyler Moore in downtown Minneapolis, throwing her hat in the air like she did at the start of every Mary Tyler Moore Show back in the 70’s. Pretty cool.

5) CJ Wilson is invaluable to an Angel team that lacks pitching depth; in his first six starts, Wilson threw 114-120-116-111-111-117 pitches. He gets deep in games, taking the strain off a shaky bullpen.

4) Over the last 145 years that people have kept track of this stuff, Wednesday was the 10th-rainiest day in history of NYC’s Central Park. That’s a lot of rain.

3) Brad Underwood is staying at Stephen F Austin; he turned down a couple of C-USA jobs, at Southern Miss/Marshall. Will be interested to see how long he stays at SFA, whether they’re moving up to a better league or if he is just waiting for a higher-profile team than one in C-USA to hire him.

2) Atlanta Braves have been shut out the last three times Alex Wood pitched. I’ll say this about the NL East; no easy outs there right now, except maybe when Miami is on the road. Marlins are playing really well at home.

1) MGM Grand is building a 20,000-seat sports arena in Las Vegas; do they think they can get an NBA or NHL team? I don’t know if they can or can’t, but it would be very interesting if they did. Utah Jazz played some home games in Vegas in the 80’s, before the Malone/Stockton days.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Dunkel

San Antonio at Dallas
The Spurs look to close out the series and come into tonight's contest with a 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 games in Dallas. San Antonio is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

FRIDAY, MAY 2

Game 531-532: Toronto at Brooklyn (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 120.982; Brooklyn 122.920
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 5; 191
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+5); Over

Game 533-534: San Antonio at Dallas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 128.417; Dallas 123.237
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 5; 193
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio 3; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3); Under

Game 535-536: Houston at Portland (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 121.141; Portland 125.975
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 5; 218
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 3 1/2; 213
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-3 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, May 2

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TORONTO (51 - 36) at BROOKLYN (46 - 41) - 5/2/2014, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 8-7 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
BROOKLYN is 9-8 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (65 - 22) at DALLAS (51 - 36) - 5/2/2014, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 9-8 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
10 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (56 - 31) at PORTLAND (57 - 30) - 5/2/2014, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 10-5 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 10-6 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
13 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, May 2

All five Toronto-Brooklyn games were decided by 8 or less points, with three of last four going over total. DeRozan scored 30-30-24-23 points in last four games, but is just 32-88 from floor in series. Toronto was +9 in turnovers last two games; they're -16 (75-59) in series. Brooklyn lost seven of last ten games; they rallied back from 26 down in Game 5, fell point short. Underdogs are 4-0-1 vs spread so far in this series.

Dallas lost 12 of last 14 games vs Spurs, but they've covered all five in this series and last six games overall, covering last two games by half a point each. Underdogs covered last eight Dallas games. Three of last four series games went over total; over is 25-18 in Maverick home games this season, 24-19 in SA road games. Spurs covered once in their last seven games as a favorite. Four of five series games were decided by 6 or less.

Three of five Rocket-Blazer games went OT; Aldridge scored 29+ in all three Portland wins, was held to 23-9 in losses. Portland won 11 of last 15 games. Underdogs covered four of five series tilts; 11 of last 12 series games also went over, helped by OTs. Harden is 41-118 from floor this series, not good for Rockets. Portland is 19-24 vs spread at home, 2-5 in last seven games as the favorite. Over is 24-18 in Rocket road games.




NBA

Friday, May 2

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
TORONTO vs. BROOKLYN
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing Brooklyn
Brooklyn is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Brooklyn is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home

8:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. DALLAS
San Antonio is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
San Antonio is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games

10:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. PORTLAND
Houston is 6-1-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Portland
Houston is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Portland's last 8 games
Portland is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games


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NBA

Friday, May 2

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Game of the Day: Rockets at Trail Blazers
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Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers (-3.5, 213.5)

Portland leads series 3-2.

The Houston Rockets staved off elimination and attempt to even the Western Conference first-round series at 3-3 when they visit the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday. The Rockets thrived with their season on the line in Game 5 and avoided the late-game breakdowns that hurt them earlier in the series while posting a 108-98 victory on Wednesday. Now the Trail Blazers feel the urgency to wrap up the series at home to keep from having to travel back to Houston for a Game 7.

The Rockets held Portland star LaMarcus Aldridge to eight points while being highly intent on keeping their season going. “I don’t want to go on vacation,” Houston center Dwight Howard told reporters after Game 5. “I want to win. I want to give everything I’ve got. Every night, put my heart into it and sacrifice my body and do whatever I can to help this team win.” The Trail Blazers are trying to halt a streak of six straight first-round exits that dates back to 2000. “We’ve been good at home all year and now we’ll go back home and take care of business,” Aldridge told reporters.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, CSN Houston, KGW (Portland)

LINE HISTORY: The line opened at Portland -3.5 with a total of 213, but the total quickly moved half a point to 213.5.

INJURY REPORT: N/A

WHY BET THE ROCKETS: Starting point guard Patrick Beverley was limited in Game 5 due to an illness and Jeremy Lin stepped up to have his best performance of the series. Lin had 21 points on 9-of-15 shooting as he rebounded from a poor Game 4 performance that included a costly turnover late in regulation. “I just tried to be aggressive,” Lin told reporters. “I felt like I needed to be more of a spark for the team. I hadn’t done a great job of that in this series so I just tried to come out as aggressive as I can be.” Howard has been Houston’s best player of the series, posting five straight double-doubles while averaging 26 points, 14.2 rebounds and three blocks.

WHY BET THE TRAIL BLAZERS: Aldridge averaged 35.3 points over the first four games – including outings of 46 and 43 points to begin the series – before being a complete nonfactor in Game 5. Houston’s lineup switch to Omer Asik from Terrence Jones has allowed Howard to guard Aldridge more often and the results were even better than what Houston expected. Aldridge, who was 3-of-12 shooting, bristled over the notion that Howard silenced him. “The ball didn’t come to me as much,” Aldridge told reporters. “Our guys were making shots and we were playing off them and that’s how the game went. It wasn’t about how Dwight guarded me or anything like that.”

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Portland.
* Rockets are 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in Portland.
* Over is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.
* Rockets are 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 54 percent of bets are on Portland -3.5 while 67 percent are on Over 213.5

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Friday, May 2

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Raptors – Nets: The Game Inside the Game
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It has been on-the-job training for Jason Kidd in his first campaign as an NBA head coach, perhaps even better compared to being a college freshman, and having a variety of courses being thrown at him. But that all accelerates in a major way now – he has to write a grad-level thesis as Game #6 approaches. And so do the betting markets, which face an equally daunting challenge, in the form of a multiple-choice exam.

OK Coach, what’s next?

The Brooklyn rally on Wednesday night was one for the ages, with an 85-59 deficit late in the third quarter being turned into a 101 deadlock in just 12:10 of court time. But in terms of carry-over to Game #6, the way that rally happened may supply more questions than answers.

Kevin Garnett was taken out of the game with 7:34 remaining in the third quarter, and the Nets down 71-50. He did not return. Paul Pierce went to the bench with 5:25 left in the third, and the score at 77-53. He did not return. Shaun Livingston was on the bench to begin the fourth quarter, and stayed there until there were 9.7 seconds remaining.

The Nets were a shocking -31 in the 24:01 that Pierce played. It was -15 over just 11:40 for Garnett. A team that appeared old and tired when the Raptors controlled them down the stretch in Game #4 looked ancient as game #5 was on the verge of breaking wide open. And when those two went to the bench in the third, one could not tell if Kidd was going to younger players to create a spark, or if he thought the game was out of reach, and was hoping to rest them a bit for Friday.

But then that reserve cast did ignite, with Mirza Teletovic and Alan Anderson combining for 30 points and nine rebounds, knocking down 10-17 shots, including 7-12 triples. And the new floor spacing opened things up for Joe Johnson, who scored 26 points ion the second half.

The turnaround was so dramatic that Kidd stayed with that group until the end, even though it meant long stretches for players that were not accustomed to that. Ultimately the rally came up short because the defense failed down the stretch, when Pierce and/or Garnett might have made a difference on that end.

So now what? Does Kidd go back to his base lineup, or the group that brought more energy on Wednesday? Not only is it a difficult tactical decision, but also one of coaching authority – Kidd celebrated his 41st birthday in March, while Garnett turns 38 in a couple of weeks, and Pierce is 36. That puts more pressure than usual on lineup changes, and will he feel the command to bench those veterans if he believes it is the right thing to do?

Kidd’s rotation conundrum also brings issues for the betting markets. In a perfect world, all game results would bring an integrity that could be trusted, generating meaningful numbers to use going forward. The reality, of course, is much different, and it is possible that there may not have been anything useful to takeaway from the Nets rally, because of the way that it happened. If Teletovic and Anderson are going to get more minutes, and also Marcus Thornton and Andray Blatche, it means a quicker pace and a more open offense, while at the same time creating a dubious defensive chemistry. Or is it back to the base lineup? And it is not just the marketplace that has to do a little guesswork, but also Dwane Casey as well – just what Brooklyn rotation will he be game-planning for?

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Dunkel

San Antonio at Dallas
The Spurs look to close out the series and come into tonight's contest with a 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 games in Dallas. San Antonio is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

FRIDAY, MAY 2

Game 531-532: Toronto at Brooklyn (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 120.982; Brooklyn 122.920
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 5; 191
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+5); Over

Game 533-534: San Antonio at Dallas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 128.417; Dallas 123.237
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 5; 193
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio 3; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3); Under

Game 535-536: Houston at Portland (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 121.141; Portland 125.975
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 5; 218
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 3 1/2; 213
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-3 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, May 2

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TORONTO (51 - 36) at BROOKLYN (46 - 41) - 5/2/2014, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 8-7 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
BROOKLYN is 9-8 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN ANTONIO (65 - 22) at DALLAS (51 - 36) - 5/2/2014, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 9-8 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
10 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (56 - 31) at PORTLAND (57 - 30) - 5/2/2014, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 10-5 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 10-6 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
13 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, May 2

All five Toronto-Brooklyn games were decided by 8 or less points, with three of last four going over total. DeRozan scored 30-30-24-23 points in last four games, but is just 32-88 from floor in series. Toronto was +9 in turnovers last two games; they're -16 (75-59) in series. Brooklyn lost seven of last ten games; they rallied back from 26 down in Game 5, fell point short. Underdogs are 4-0-1 vs spread so far in this series.

Dallas lost 12 of last 14 games vs Spurs, but they've covered all five in this series and last six games overall, covering last two games by half a point each. Underdogs covered last eight Dallas games. Three of last four series games went over total; over is 25-18 in Maverick home games this season, 24-19 in SA road games. Spurs covered once in their last seven games as a favorite. Four of five series games were decided by 6 or less.

Three of five Rocket-Blazer games went OT; Aldridge scored 29+ in all three Portland wins, was held to 23-9 in losses. Portland won 11 of last 15 games. Underdogs covered four of five series tilts; 11 of last 12 series games also went over, helped by OTs. Harden is 41-118 from floor this series, not good for Rockets. Portland is 19-24 vs spread at home, 2-5 in last seven games as the favorite. Over is 24-18 in Rocket road games.




NBA

Friday, May 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:00 PM
TORONTO vs. BROOKLYN
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing Brooklyn
Brooklyn is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Brooklyn is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home

8:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. DALLAS
San Antonio is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
San Antonio is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games

10:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. PORTLAND
Houston is 6-1-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Portland
Houston is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Portland's last 8 games
Portland is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games


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NBA

Friday, May 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Rockets at Trail Blazers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers (-3.5, 213.5)

Portland leads series 3-2.

The Houston Rockets staved off elimination and attempt to even the Western Conference first-round series at 3-3 when they visit the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday. The Rockets thrived with their season on the line in Game 5 and avoided the late-game breakdowns that hurt them earlier in the series while posting a 108-98 victory on Wednesday. Now the Trail Blazers feel the urgency to wrap up the series at home to keep from having to travel back to Houston for a Game 7.

The Rockets held Portland star LaMarcus Aldridge to eight points while being highly intent on keeping their season going. “I don’t want to go on vacation,” Houston center Dwight Howard told reporters after Game 5. “I want to win. I want to give everything I’ve got. Every night, put my heart into it and sacrifice my body and do whatever I can to help this team win.” The Trail Blazers are trying to halt a streak of six straight first-round exits that dates back to 2000. “We’ve been good at home all year and now we’ll go back home and take care of business,” Aldridge told reporters.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, CSN Houston, KGW (Portland)

LINE HISTORY: The line opened at Portland -3.5 with a total of 213, but the total quickly moved half a point to 213.5.

INJURY REPORT: N/A

WHY BET THE ROCKETS: Starting point guard Patrick Beverley was limited in Game 5 due to an illness and Jeremy Lin stepped up to have his best performance of the series. Lin had 21 points on 9-of-15 shooting as he rebounded from a poor Game 4 performance that included a costly turnover late in regulation. “I just tried to be aggressive,” Lin told reporters. “I felt like I needed to be more of a spark for the team. I hadn’t done a great job of that in this series so I just tried to come out as aggressive as I can be.” Howard has been Houston’s best player of the series, posting five straight double-doubles while averaging 26 points, 14.2 rebounds and three blocks.

WHY BET THE TRAIL BLAZERS: Aldridge averaged 35.3 points over the first four games – including outings of 46 and 43 points to begin the series – before being a complete nonfactor in Game 5. Houston’s lineup switch to Omer Asik from Terrence Jones has allowed Howard to guard Aldridge more often and the results were even better than what Houston expected. Aldridge, who was 3-of-12 shooting, bristled over the notion that Howard silenced him. “The ball didn’t come to me as much,” Aldridge told reporters. “Our guys were making shots and we were playing off them and that’s how the game went. It wasn’t about how Dwight guarded me or anything like that.”

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Portland.
* Rockets are 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in Portland.
* Over is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.
* Rockets are 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 54 percent of bets are on Portland -3.5 while 67 percent are on Over 213.5

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Friday, May 2


Clippers open as 7.5-point faves, down to -7

A pair of books - Pinnacle and BetVictor - opened lines on Game 7 between the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers with the latter as 7.5-point home faves. Shortly thereafter, however, they adjusted and are currently offering the Clips as 7-point faves.

The Clippers are just 2-4 against the spread in the series thus far but covered as 8 and 7-point home faves in games 2 and 5 respectively.


NBA to review Hawks-Pacers second-quarter incident

The NBA will review a second-quarter altercation between the Hawks’ Mike Scott and the Pacers’ George Hill in Thursday’s Game 6 of the Eastern Conference playoff series, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution has learned.

The incident could lead to suspensions for several Pacers, including All-Star Paul George, who appeared to leave the bench and step onto the court. The league will also look into whether Hill poked Scott in the eye.

A shoving match broke out between the Scott and Hill with 19 seconds left in the second quarter after they got tangled up under the basket. Hill confronted Scott and appeared to put his finger in the face of the Hawks player after a play under the Hawks basket. Television replays show Hill initiated the contact.

Pacers coach Frank Vogel ran onto the court to separate the players.

During the fracas, replays also showed Pacers players George and Rasual Butler stepping onto the court. According to NBA rules a player faces suspension for leaving the bench in the vicinity of an on-court altercation. There is precedent for a suspension in past postseasons.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Short Sheet

Friday, May 2

Toronto Raptors at Brooklyn Nets, 7:05 ET
Toronto: 18-8 ATS as a road underdog
Brooklyn: 0-8 ATS after a close loss by 3 points or less

San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks, 8:05 ET
San Antonio: 26-15 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or more
Dallas: 3-11 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent

Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers, 10:35 ET
Houston: 2-11 ATS in road games after a win by 10 points or more
Portland: 21-10 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points

 

[CNOTES]

Friday, May 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Toronto 0 0th Toronto +5 500 *****
Brooklyn 0 Under 192 500 *****

San Antonio - 8:00 PM ET Dallas +3 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Dallas - Over 197 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Houston - 10:30 PM ET Houston +4 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Portland - Over 212.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

Record in the playoffs as of FRIDAY Night :

20 - 12 ..............................*****

14 - 13 ..............................DOUBLE PLAY

14 - 13 - 1...............................TRIPLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Dunkel

Golden State at LA Clippers
The Clippers look to clinch the series tonight and come into the contest with a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games against the Warriors in Los Angeles. LA is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Clippers favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-7). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

SATURDAY, MAY 3

Game 537-538: Atlanta at Indiana (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 116.557; Indiana 125.169
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 8 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 6; 185
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-6); Under

Game 541-542: Memphis at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 119.347; Oklahoma City 125.512
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 6; 189
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 9; 185
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+9); Over

Game 543-544: Golden State at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 119.793; LA Clippers 130.418
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 10 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 7; 208 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-7); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, May 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (41 - 47) at INDIANA (59 - 29) - 5/3/2014, 5:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) in road games in all playoff games since 1996.
INDIANA is 13-23 ATS (-12.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
INDIANA is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 11-11 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 12-11 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
12 of 23 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MEMPHIS (53 - 35) at OKLAHOMA CITY (62 - 26) - 5/3/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 96-81 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 84-70 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 52-38 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 97-81 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 58-43 ATS (+10.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 14-7 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-11 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
13 of 22 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GOLDEN STATE (54 - 34) at LA CLIPPERS (60 - 28) - 5/3/2014, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 48-39 ATS (+5.1 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 97-82 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in the first round of the playoffs since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 36-27 ATS (+6.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 32-23 ATS (+6.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 158-218 ATS (-81.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 113-151 ATS (-53.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 11-7 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 10-8 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
12 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, May 3

Pacers are now 9-12 in last 21 games, 9-27-1 against spread in last 37, as they head home for Game 7, in series where road team won four of six games. Indiana is 5-5 vs Atlanta this season, 2-3 here. Hawks won nine of last fourteen games. George was only 7-18 from floor in Game 4, but was 9-10 on line- he is Pacers' barometer, and Indiana was +19 when he was on court. Hawks' bench is 38-100 from floor in last four games, and was combined -42 last game. Pacers shortened rotation last game,.and it worked. Four of last five series games stayed under total.

Zach Randolph is suspended for Game 7, which hurts Memphis. Four of last five Griz-Thunder games went OT, after OC won opener by 14; despite OTs, team that led at half lost four of six series games. four of last five games went over total. OC is 41-138 from arc in last five games, but shot 49% from floor last game, after shooting under 40% from floor in previous four games- seven of their last ten games went over. Key for OC is finding third scoring option; Jackson scored 16 in 29:00 in Game 6; they'll need a similar effort from him or another sub to win here. Visiting team won four of last five games in series.

Clippers took 73 3's in three series wins, 88 in three losses; they'll need to attack basket more in home arena to win series that is overflowing in subplots, on both sides. Jordan took only three shots in Game 6 loss, after he had 25 points, 18 boards in Game 5, after going scoreless in Game 4. Clippers won 10 of last 16 games, with 12 of those 16 going over total. Warriors won eight of last 13 games overall; under is 49-37 in their games this year, 25-19 on road. Curry had 24 in Game 6, after he was held to 17 in Game 5 after having 33 in Game 4.




NBA

Saturday, May 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5:30 PM
ATLANTA vs. INDIANA
Atlanta is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games on the road
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games

8:00 PM
MEMPHIS vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Memphis's last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
Memphis is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Oklahoma City's last 22 games when playing at home against Memphis

10:30 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. LA CLIPPERS
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Golden State's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Golden State's last 15 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 11 of the LA Clippers last 15 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 7 of the LA Clippers last 8 games when playing at home against Golden State


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA

Saturday, May 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Warriors at Clippers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers (-7, 209.5)

Series tied 3-3.

The Golden State Warriors found just enough in themselves at home to force a Game 7 but might not have a full compliment of weapons by the time they get there. The Warriors hope center Jermaine O’Neal, who suffered a sprained right knee in the second quarter of Game 6, will be able to go when they visit the Los Angeles Clippers for Game 7 on Saturday. The Clippers had some trouble adjusting to a tightly-called Game 6 and Blake Griffin fouled out late.

Golden State is already without starting center Andrew Bogut due to a fractured rib and has been using a smaller lineup with David Lee in the middle and O’Neal coming off the bench while Draymond Green takes on a bigger role guarding Griffin. O’Neal was not happy about the play that knocked him out of the game, telling USA Today, “It’s just a dirty play, to be quite honest. I mean, I’m not going to go try to dive into somebody’s legs. It wasn’t a scramble for the ball.” The Warriors gave more time to Marreese Speights off the bench when O’Neal went down and the veteran big man responded with 12 points and six rebounds.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT, CSN Bay Area (Golden State), Prime Ticket (Los Angeles)

LINE HISTORY: The Clippers opened as big as 7.5-point favorites and were bet down to -7. The total opened 209.5.

INJURY REPORT: Warriors - J. O'Neal (Ques. - Knee). Clippers - H.Turkoglu (Ques. - Back)

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Stephen Curry had a lot of questions to answer after a Game 5 loss in which he turned the ball over eight time and finished with 10 field-goal attempts. The All-Star guard was noticeably more aggressive in Game 6 and attempted 12 shots in the first quarter alone to keep his team in the game before Green, Speights and David Lee started to provide some support. Lee and Green both battled foul trouble, with Lee drawing his sixth early in the fourth quarter, but still managed to play strong defense on Griffin (8-of-24) and win the scrambles down low. “You know, it’s a battle,” Green told reporters. “We knew that coming into the series. For the last two years, as long as I’ve been here, it’s been a battle every time we played this team, and it’s grown into a rivalry.”

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS: Chris Paul is banged up with right hamstring and left hand issues and battled foul trouble throughout Game 6, finishing with nine points, eight assists, four turnovers and five fouls. “(Paul) is dealing with a lot of stuff, but, listen, he’s on the floor and Golden State doesn’t care, bottom line,” coach Doc Rivers said. “He does have injuries, and there is no doubt about that. I’m sure they have some too, but, listen, I think once you’re on the floor, you’re on the floor.” Los Angeles got another big game from DeAndre Jordan on Thursday with nine points, 19 rebounds and four blocks and Matt Barnes stepped up with a double-double, but the off nights from Griffin and Paul kept the Clippers from getting over the hump in the 100-99 setback.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Los Angeles.
* Over is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings.
* Warriors are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings in Los Angeles.

CONSENSUS: 67 percent of action is on Golden State while 67 percent is on the Over.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Short Sheet

Saturday, May 3

Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers, 5:30 ET
Atlanta: 12-28 ATS in all road playoff games
Indiana: 44-30 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:00 ET
Memphis: 4-17 ATS after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers
Oklahoma City: 31-18 ATS in home games after playing 4 games as favorite

Golden State Warriors at LA Clippers, 10:30 ET
Golden State: 9-18 ATS off a home win
LA Clippers: 14-5 ATS off a road loss

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Saturday, May 3


Game 7 betting trends: Home teams dominate SU and ATS

Saturday is a special day in the NBA as it will be the first day in league history when three Game 7's will be played in the same day.

The action tips off in Indiana as the No. 1-seeded Pacers host the Atlanta Hawks. As history can tell us, the Pacers may very well win the game straight up as No. 1 seeds are 14-3 SU, but against the spread is a different story. Teams ranked No. 1 are a paltry 7-9-1 ATS in those Game 7's. The Pacers are currently 6.5-point home faves Saturday.

Home teams have been a force in Game 7's. Since 1992, the home team is a dominant 42-12 SU and 32-20-2 ATS in Game 7's. That ATS clip is good for a respectable 61.5 percent winning clip. Along with the Pacers, the other home teams are the Oklahoma City Thunder (9-point faves over the Memphis Grizzlies) and the Los Angeles Clippers (7-point faves over the Golden State Warriors).

We also dig up a good stat about home teams coming off a loss, a category which the Los Angeles Clippers fall under. Coming off defeat, the home team is a stellar 30-7 SU and 22-13-2 ATS (62.8 percent). The Clippers dropped Game 6 100-99 in Oakland and now host the Warriors in the series finale Saturday night.

The news gets better for Saturday's home teams, however. In Round one, the home team is 10-4 SU and ATS, but a sparkling 6-0 SU and ATS if the home team's winning percentage is .647 or better. All three of the Game 7 home teams owned better winning percentages than .647 with the Pacers at .683, the Clippers at .695 and the Thunder owning a .720 winning percentage.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday, May 3

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 5:30 PM ET Atlanta +6.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Indiana - Under 185 500 *****

 

[CNOTES]

EVENING GAMES:


Memphis - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma City -9.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Oklahoma City - Over 185 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Golden State - 10:30 PM ET L.A. Clippers -7.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

L.A. Clippers - Under 206.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

-- Doc Rivers makes $7M a year to coach the Clippers; he earned every penny this week, keeping a fractured franchise pasted together.

-- Vince Neil of Motley Crue is part-owner of the Jacksonville Sharks of Arena Football; Jon Bon Jovi and Gene Simmons also own AFL teams.

-- NFL should move its draft around the country, just like the NHL does.

-- California Chrome is first California-bred horse to win the Kentucky Derby since all the way back in 1962. Big day for California racing.

-- Since 2003, under is 28-16-1 in 7th game of an NBA playoff series.

-- Next article I read about the NFL Draft will be about a trade or a draft pick; I'm seriously tired of all the speculation. Enough already.

*****

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but........

13) I miscounted the bowls earlier this week; there will be 38 bowls, plus the new national title game, meaning 76 of 125 eligible teams will go bowling. UNLV, Penn State and Idaho are ineligible for bowl games this coming season.

12) Maryland’s basketball team has five freshmen coming in this fall, but they’ve also lost four transfers since last season ended, as they venture into the Big 14 for the first time. I still wonder if coach Mark Turgeon would’ve left Texas A&M for Maryland had he known the Terps were bolting the ACC.

11) If I was making out a major league lineup card, I’d always want my three best hitters batting 1-3, since they get the most at-bats, especially in the AL, where a position player bats ninth. Not fond of putting a lesser hitter at #2, so he can get better pitches to hit, hitting in front of the best hitter, who usually hits third. Stat mavens are arguing the best hitter should bat second. As long as the best guy bats in the first inning, to put immediate pressure on the pitcher, I’m good with that.

10) Tampa Bay starting pitchers lasted past the 6th inning twice in their last 19 games, which if it continues, will burn their bullpen out before football season starts. Grant Balfour has already thrown two innings in two games, which he never did in Oakland.

9) If I lived in Chicago, I’d be at Wrigley Field for every Friday afternoon home game; what better way to start the weekend?

8) Met starting pitchers should definitely bat ninth; they’re 0-47 this season, the worst hitting start of a season by any pitching staff since 1900.

7) In their long history, the Hawks are now 0-9 in Game 7’s that were played on the road; Atlanta was only sixth #8 seed ever to get to a Game 7, but that doesn't mean much if you don't win that seventh game

6) Lakers leaked an odd set of names as coaching possibilities; Thibodeau, Calipari, Kevin Ollie. I’m thinking Thibodeau isn’t Showtime-enough for the LA crowd. The basketball scene in LA is chaotic, with the Clippers’ mess and the Lakers in transition.

5) I'm not in favor of the Warriors firing Mark Jackson, but if they do, and all the TV types seem to think they will, how about Mike D’Antoni moving to Oakland while Jackson replaces Steve Kerr at TNT? That makes some sense; D’Antoni’s system with Curry/Thompson would be excellent.

4) Vendors at the Kentucky Derby are charging $8 for a Bud Light. One beer, not a six-pack. Sounds like the prices at Saratoga here in the summer.

3) Kansas PG Naadir Tharpe is transferring, with one year left to play, which leads us to…….

2) Kansas signing point guard recruit Ahmaad Rorie to take Tharpe’s place. Guess Mr Tharpe didn’t want to spend his senior year sharing the position with a freshman.

1) Read an article about how Doc Rivers had to spend a morning this week with non-basketball employees of the Clippers (salespeople, administrative staff), who were distraught and angry by events that were taking money out of their pockets, as lot of those sales people probably work at least partly on commission.

Hopefully the NBA can rid itself of Donald Sterling soon, and a franchise that has finally come of the NBA's best teams can provide a positive experience for fans.

Quick story you may already know: 10-12 years ago, a Clippers' assistant coach named Kim Hughes (he works for Portland now) had prostate cancer. Sterling would not pay for his medical coverage, saying, "If I do it for you, I have to do it for everyone." Four Clipper players chipped in to pay the $70,000 tab.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Dunkel

Dallas at San Antonio
The Mavericks head to San Antonio for Game 7 following a 113-111 win in Game 6 and face a Spurs team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. Dallas is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by only 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+6 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

SUNDAY, MAY 4

Game 545-546: Brooklyn at Toronto (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 120.581; Toronto 124.920
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 4 1/2; 183
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 2 1/2; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-2 1/2); Under

Game 547-548: Dallas at San Antonio (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 121.175; San Antonio 124.480
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 3 1/2; 205
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+6 1/2); Over




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, May 4

Five of six Toronto-Brooklyn games were decided by 8 or less points, with home side going 2-1 in each building. Raptors blew 26-point lead in Game 5 here, rallied to win/ DeRozan scored 30-30-24-23-29 points in last four games, but is just 40-106 from floor in series. Toronto was +7 in turnovers last two games; they're -18 (89-71) in series. Brooklyn lost seven of last 11 games. Underdogs are 4-1-1 vs spread so far in series.

Dallas lost 12 of last 15 games vs Spurs, but they've covered all six in this series and last seven games overall- their two series losses here are by 5-6 points. Underdogs covered last nine Dallas games. Four of last five series games went over total; over is 23-20 in San Antonio home games this year. Spurs covered once in their last eight games as favorite. Five of six series games were decided by six points or less.

From Spreadapedia: since 2006 game 7 unders are 23-7. 18-3 for lines less than 190. Since 2003 first round game 6-7's, under is 28-16-1.




NBA

Sunday, May 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1:00 PM
BROOKLYN vs. TORONTO
Brooklyn is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 2-4-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Toronto is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Brooklyn

3:30 PM
DALLAS vs. SAN ANTONIO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing San Antonio
Dallas is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games when playing San Antonio
San Antonio is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
San Antonio is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Dallas


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA

Sunday, May 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Mavericks at Spurs
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs (-6.5, 197.5)

Series tied 3-3.

The Dallas Mavericks aim to become the sixth No. 8 seed in NBA history to win a first-round playoff series when they visit the San Antonio Spurs for Game 7 on Sunday. Dallas rallied to grab a 113-111 win in a do-or-die Game 6 at home Friday, pushing the Spurs to the verge of its second first-round loss as a top seed in just four seasons. The Mavericks will be undaunted by a Game 7 on the road, having won Game 2 in San Antonio by 21 points and going to the wire in their other two road games.

The numbers are in San Antonio's favor, as home teams were 91-23 all-time in Game 7s in all rounds entering the weekend, but Dallas has given itself a chance to pull off the upset. "It's the ultimate thrill," Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki said of having one game to stay alive. San Antonio is 3-5 in Game 7s, including a loss in the NBA Finals last season and another in overtime against Dallas in the 2006 Western Conference semifinals.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: The Spurs opened as 6-point home faves but have been bet to -6.5. The total opened 198 and has been bet up to 198.5.

INJURY REPORT: Mavericks - Jose Calderon (Probable, Nose).

ABOUT THE MAVERICKS: It is clear that Dallas missed the presence of forward DeJuan Blair in its Game 5 at San Antonio, as the former Spur was suspended during the Mavericks' 109-103 loss but returned to provide 10 points, 14 rebounds and four steals on Friday. Blair, Devin Harris and Vince Carter combined for 34 points off the Dallas bench in Game 6, continuing a solid contribution for the reserves in support of Nowitzki and Monta Ellis, who is the top scorer among both teams in the series. "We pride ourselves on trying to outscore and dominate the other team’s second unit," Carter said after the Mavericks' bench secured a 37-25 scoring advantage on San Antonio's reserves.

ABOUT THE SPURS: Despite the loss in Game 6, San Antonio has to feel good about the emergence of guard Danny Green, who shook off a series of lackluster play with 17 points on 7-of-7 shooting in the loss. Green had only six baskets combined in the first five games and was never a factor down the stretch until he buried a big 3-pointer with 12 seconds left to help keep the Spurs close in Game 6. His emergence did plenty to offset a difficult game for fellow shooting guard Manu Ginobili, who entered leading the team in scoring for the series before going 1-for-8 from the floor and missing all five of his 3-point tries in a six-point showing.

TRENDS:

* Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Spurs are 0-8 ATS in their last eight vs. Western Conference.

CONSENSUS: 54 percent of wagers are on the Mavericks.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Sunday, May 4


Raptors holding as 3-point faves, but total drops

Sportbooks opened the Toronto Raptors as 3-point favorites for their Game 7 matchup with the Brooklyn Nets and that line has held firm as tipoff approaches.

The total, on the other hand, has been sinking like a stone since it was posted.

When lines were opened Saturday morning, most books had 189.5 as a total. But as of Sunday morning, most shops are offering 187.5 and have seen drops of 2 or 2.5-points to the total.

Through the first six games of the series, the Over/Under record is split at 3-3.


Durant scores 33, Thunder rout Grizzlies in Game 7

It was only a matter of time before he showed up in full force. The Kevin Durant that had lit up the NBA on his way to a fourth scoring title and possible MVP selection was bound to make his presence known.

It took the magnitude of a Game 7 to bring out the true Durant, who scored 33 points to lead Oklahoma City to a 120-109 win over the Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday night at the Chesapeake Energy Arena.

"I got out of my own way," Durant said. "I was thinking too much, worried about what you guys were saying. I was just thinking too much. The game of basketball is played off instincts and I realized I started playing basketball to have fun. I didn't want to take the pure fun out of the game."

The victory advanced the Thunder into the Western Conference semifinals, where they will play the Los Angeles Clippers. This is the fourth straight season the Thunder have made it to the semifinals.


Pacers roll past Hawks in Game 7, will face Wizards

After forcing a Game 7 with a Thursday night victory in Atlanta, the Eastern Conference's No. 1 seeded Indiana Pacers wondered about the status of leading scorer and forward Paul George and struggling center Roy Hibbert.

George left the bench during an on-the-court pushing and shoving match in Game 6, and there was some speculation into Friday whether or not the NBA would suspend George for Saturday's deciding game.

And with Hibbert in the worst funk of his career, would coach Frank Vogel go with a smaller lineup to counter the No. 8 seeded Hawks' passion for shooting 3-pointers?

George was not suspended, Hibbert was not benched, and along with guard Lance Stephenson, the Pacers advanced with a 92-80 victory in sold-out Bankers Life Fieldhouse.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, May 4

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BROOKLYN (47 - 41) at TORONTO (51 - 37) - 5/4/2014, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 48-37 ATS (+7.3 Units) in all games this season.
TORONTO is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
TORONTO is 33-24 ATS (+6.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 8-8 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
BROOKLYN is 10-8 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (52 - 36) at SAN ANTONIO (65 - 23) - 5/4/2014, 3:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 148-118 ATS (+18.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 121-96 ATS (+15.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 430-363 ATS (+30.7 Units) in home games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 47-33 ATS (+10.7 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 147-111 ATS (+24.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
DALLAS is 50-38 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
DALLAS is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in road games this season.
DALLAS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
DALLAS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games after allowing 105 points or more this season.
DALLAS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DALLAS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
DALLAS is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 9-9 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 13-5 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
11 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[CNOTES]

NBA
Short Sheet

Sunday, May 4

Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors, 1:05 ET
Broolyn: 6-14 ATS on the road off an ATS win
Toronto: 16-3 ATS off a road loss

Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs, 3:30 ET
Dallas: 20-7 ATS as a road underdog
San Antonio: 25-13 UNDER after a combined score of 215 points or more