Clearly the worst bet there is betting on sports

[Railbird]

Only time I lay 1.5 is when I can atleast +300, and a good pitcher. Which is rare, but I did get Lima Time 3 times -1.5 and +300, and I missed with Al leiter with a 8-3 lead yesterday.

 

[areeff]

I've made quite a bit on a dog -1.5 on the alt runline when getting a nice dog price

 

[24-7SportingNews]

There are the "polish scalps" using RLs by taking the dog straight and the fav on the RL.

 

[lurkerforages]

A very interesting thread.

Even The Shrink can get it wrong!

First you have to know how runlines are calculated.
They are a function of home and away moneylines and totals.
You must then be able to construct your own runline for a given game which outthinks the linemakers simplistic construction.

That`s enough education for today.

 

[Matt24]

done well playing dogs -1.5. hit a few over +500 this year

 

[Railbird]

lay the 1.5 with Lima time again, Jose is best pitcher in baseball right now.

 

[LogansRun]

Gee, I dunno. Detroit is pretty tough at home. I'm actually leaning to the Jays with Halladay over the O's. My other game I like is Mon to beat Maddux. That's right - Montreal!!! On second thought, Tampa Bay to beat Oakland in the Super Bowl looks inviting.

 

[awesomeagain]

some books dont let you play the run line in a parlay..i.e. HOLLYWOOD

 

[wilheim]

Personally I would never play plus runs because of juice. Laying minus 1.5 runs can be useful as has been noted with big ML favorites. Some books have alternate run line (Pinnacle) some time you can find -1.5 plus 500 or more, (fairly common) using just Alt Run Lines of +500 or more you only have to go 1 and 4 to break even if all bet amounts are equal. In order to show a profit you need to win 2 out of every 5 bets at -1.5 +500. With proper discipline a player can do well over the course of a season betting this way. IMHO.


Opinions welcome. Wil.

 

[~Falco~]

Interesting reading on this topic:

http://www.thelogicalapproach.com/baseball_run_lines.htm

 

[Voodoo]

Oldfriend is misusing the 25% frequency
figure. The runline certainly does not come into play 25% of the time or anything close
to that. It's more like 15%.

 

[wilheim]

Interesting article, I have done a lot of reading in the Logical approach web-site, Andy Iskoe and Co. make some excellent points. In this case with a base of over 20,000 games he shows that a visiting favorite wins by one run only 11.6 percent of the time, or a little less than 1 in 10 games. For me this is the only spot a run-line bet is an option. Betting a visiting favorite -1.5 runs and plus money, I never lay both runs and money, (personal rule). Natrually you need to handicap the game and like the visiting favorite and then decide if its worth either laying the higher juice and no runs or taking plus juice and laying the run and a half. Here is where a lot of other factors come into play, such as the game total. A game with a total of 10.5 is more apt to end up more one sided (one way or another) than a game with a total of 7.5. Another factor is Bullpens, I like to lay the runs when my oppenent has a weak or tired bullpen on paper, looking to pick up that crucial 2nd lead run in the 8th or 9th innings. Shrink says he knows of no wise guys who play run-line, which I am sure is true, but that alone is not sufficient reason for a sharp bettor to dismiss run-line betting. A good example is tommorows Phils - Reds game, the Phils Randy Wolf is favored over the Reds Ryan Dempster -156, and -1.5 +108 on the runline (Pinnacle) The total is 9 over -20. This on the surface is a game where I would consider a run-line play on the Phils. I don't want to get to long winded here, so I will end by saying if you enjoy handicapping baseball give the run-line a look.


GL to all, wil.