Clay's Regular Season 2009 Picks and Analysis

[ClayBetting]

Not a terrible start to the day. The only game that really gets me is the Houston game. Below are my wins and losses for the early games:


Houston -3 for *3 Units
49ers +4 1H *2 Units
49ers +8 (-135) *2 Units
Atlanta +4 (-105) *2 Units
Green Bay -6.5 (-115) *2 Units
49ers/Vikings UNDER 40.5 *1 Unit
Tenn +10 & Under 44 Teased 7 points (-130) *1 Unit
Lions +13.5 and UNDER 45.5 (-128) *1 Unit

5-3 +1.5 Units.

My big teaser is still in play...

4 Team Teaser #150297857
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - Week 3 -
(401) Tennessee Titans vs. (402) New York Jets Under 50 Sun@1:00p
Teased 13.0 points
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - Week 3 -
(415) San Francisco 49ers vs. (416) Minnesota Vikings Under 52 Sun@1:00p
Teased 13.0 points
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - Week 3 -
(421) New Orleans Saints vs. (422) Buffalo Bills Over 38½ Sun@4:05p
Teased 13.0 points
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - Week 3 -
(429) Indianapolis Colts vs. (430) Arizona Cardinals Over 35 Sun@8:20p
Teased 13.0 points

Risking 3.6 Units to win 3 Units.

Waiting on the following games:

Saints/Bills OVER 52 (-110) *3 Units
Oakland Raiders -1 (-130) *2 Units
Saints -5 (-110) *1 Unit

Let's make this a big profitable day!

--------------------
NFL: 18-11-1 (60%) +5.3 Units

 

[ClayBetting]

Lol. I got wrecked in the 4:00 games...

Lost the teaser on the Saint's/Bills Over...

1-3 -8.5 Units...

Makes my total:

---------------
NFL: 19-14-1 -3.2 Units

Bad week all around. Still got plenty in the bankroll though, and ready to rebound next week...

Til then...

 

[ClayBetting]

Carolina Panthers (0-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

Two underacheiving teams trying to get back onto the right path. The Carolina Panthers came out of the gate after a 12-4 season and layed an egg at home against a very good Philadelphia team. Last week, they lost a close game to an unpredicatable, but good, Atlanta team.

The Cowboys won their road opener against Tampa Bay, which already has the honor of being 0-3. Then they lost their home opener against a very good Giants team with Romo laying an egg and throwing 3 picks while their defense gave up huge passing yards to little known receivers.

Both teams are looking to get back on track and both QB's are looking to avenge their abysmal starts to the season.

Carolina Offense vs. Dallas Defense.

The running game for Carolina is their bread and butter. However, they should find it tough to run against a legitimately good rushing defense. To make matters worse, Carolina's starting fullback, Brad Hoover, will most likely not play. That is a huge blow to their running attack that relies on Hoover to be a big time lead blocker.

The upside to this matchup is Carolina's air attack that finally found one of the best receiver's in the league, Steve Smith, last week. This is huge because the Cowboy's are ranked dead last against the pass in the NFL. Furthermore, they have 0 sacks and 0 interceptions this year. This is not good for a team that is supposed to be able to put a lot of pressure on a QB with DeMarcus Ware and company.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the running game abandoned early in favor of the passing game which should payoff with some big plays against this Dallas pass defense.

Dallas Offense vs. Carolina Defense

One word. Injuries.

Carolina is plagued with injuries coming into this game and that does not bode well against the league's third best offense which has put up a total of 420 yards per game. Also, I have not overlooked their 31 points against the Giants which have a great defense.

Yes, Marion Barber is not likely to play. But, who really cares? Felix Jones and Tashard Choice are severely underrated and should handle the carries without missing a step.

Also, we all know Romo isn't great in the clutch, but he does have a tendency to put up some big numbers, and I would expect him to have some opportunities tonight to redeem himself from last week.

Trends

• Dallas 0-4 ATS last 4 MNF games, 6-2 ATS as favorite last 8 games
• Carolina 8-2 ATS after S/U loss last 10 games
• OVER 4-0 as Carolina road dogs and 5-0 as Carolina dogs
• OVER 4-0 Cowboys last 4, 6-0 Cowboys favorite by 3.5-10, 7-2-1 last 10 MNF games
• OVER 4-1 last 5 meetings between Panthers and Cowboys

Conclusion

With the world watching, both teams have somthing to prove. The Panthers who one had hopes of a Super Bowl appearance last year have gone 0-2 and don't want to make it 0-3. The Cowboys have a chance to finally win one in their new state of the art expensive stadium. Both QB's have a chance to redeem themselves on national TV.

I don't expect either team to come out and try to play possession football. I fully expect each team to work their ass off to win this game, and that means that these offenses are going to be on fire against defenses that are going to prone to letting up big numbers.

However, I think that public perception is that the Panthers are going to be completely out-classed by the Cowboys and the line has been set accordingly. I expect a full out fight from Jake Delhomme and company. Whether they can win or not, I am not sure. I think that is going to go to the team with the least turnovers. However, I think that 9 points is way too many points to give a team that was 12-4 last year and trying to get their first win in the third week of the season on a national stage.

Panthers: 27
Cowboys: 31

Pick: Panthers +9 (bought the 1/2), OVER 48

2 Units Each

 

[JimmyJet]

GOOD LUCK...got the Panthers +8.5

 

[Lucky Pierre]

Carolina Panthers (0-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

Two underacheiving teams trying to get back onto the right path. The Carolina Panthers came out of the gate after a 12-4 season and layed an egg at home against a very good Philadelphia team. Last week, they lost a close game to an unpredicatable, but good, Atlanta team.

The Cowboys won their road opener against Tampa Bay, which already has the honor of being 0-3. Then they lost their home opener against a very good Giants team with Romo laying an egg and throwing 3 picks while their defense gave up huge passing yards to little known receivers.

Both teams are looking to get back on track and both QB's are looking to avenge their abysmal starts to the season.

Carolina Offense vs. Dallas Defense.

The running game for Carolina is their bread and butter. However, they should find it tough to run against a legitimately good rushing defense. To make matters worse, Carolina's starting fullback, Brad Hoover, will most likely not play. That is a huge blow to their running attack that relies on Hoover to be a big time lead blocker.

The upside to this matchup is Carolina's air attack that finally found one of the best receiver's in the league, Steve Smith, last week. This is huge because the Cowboy's are ranked dead last against the pass in the NFL. Furthermore, they have 0 sacks and 0 interceptions this year. This is not good for a team that is supposed to be able to put a lot of pressure on a QB with DeMarcus Ware and company.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the running game abandoned early in favor of the passing game which should payoff with some big plays against this Dallas pass defense.

Dallas Offense vs. Carolina Defense

One word. Injuries.

Carolina is plagued with injuries coming into this game and that does not bode well against the league's third best offense which has put up a total of 420 yards per game. Also, I have not overlooked their 31 points against the Giants which have a great defense.

Yes, Marion Barber is not likely to play. But, who really cares? Felix Jones and Tashard Choice are severely underrated and should handle the carries without missing a step.

Also, we all know Romo isn't great in the clutch, but he does have a tendency to put up some big numbers, and I would expect him to have some opportunities tonight to redeem himself from last week.


Trends

• Dallas 0-4 ATS last 4 MNF games, 6-2 ATS as favorite last 8 games
• Carolina 8-2 ATS after S/U loss last 10 games
• OVER 4-0 as Carolina road dogs and 5-0 as Carolina dogs
• OVER 4-0 Cowboys last 4, 6-0 Cowboys favorite by 3.5-10, 7-2-1 last 10 MNF games
• OVER 4-1 last 5 meetings between Panthers and Cowboys

Conclusion

With the world watching, both teams have somthing to prove. The Panthers who one had hopes of a Super Bowl appearance last year have gone 0-2 and don't want to make it 0-3. The Cowboys have a chance to finally win one in their new state of the art expensive stadium. Both QB's have a chance to redeem themselves on national TV.

I don't expect either team to come out and try to play possession football. I fully expect each team to work their ass off to win this game, and that means that these offenses are going to be on fire against defenses that are going to prone to letting up big numbers.

However, I think that public perception is that the Panthers are going to be completely out-classed by the Cowboys and the line has been set accordingly. I expect a full out fight from Jake Delhomme and company. Whether they can win or not, I am not sure. I think that is going to go to the team with the least turnovers. However, I think that 9 points is way too many points to give a team that was 12-4 last year and trying to get their first win in the third week of the season on a national stage.

Panthers: 27
Cowboys: 31

Pick: Panthers +9 (bought the 1/2), OVER 48

2 Units Each

Good write up makes sense! BOL:toast:

 

[awmllc2000]

Good luck you slimey car slinger!

 

[Twisted]

35-27 would be nice I have Dallas -7.5

GL tonight :toast:

 

[ClayBetting]

Thanks guys and gals. Hoping to start slowing down the big cards and picking a few games for some bigger units with full write-ups now that the season has progressed a bit.

GL to everyone tonight! (as long as I hit my ticket )

 

[ClayBetting]

Well, now might not be the time to follow. But I gotta keep pluggin along and try to get back on track. Updated record below:

NFL: 19-16-1 -7.8 Units

----------------------------------

New York Jets (3-0) at New Orleans Saints (3-0)

The new and upgraded New York Jets are travelling to the high flying and scoring New Orleans Saints Superdome in a battle between two unbeaten teams in week 4. Excited anybody?

Both teams come off pretty abysmal performances from last year. Drew Brees, being the best QB statistically in 2008 went 8-8 and finished last in their division. The Jets, with Brett Favre, opened the season with a bang and finished the season with 5 straight losses to go 7-9.

However, I really like what the Jets have done on defense and their rookie QB Mark Sanchez has looked much more poised and experienced than that of a rookie QB coming off his 3rd game in the NFL.

The Saints line opened at -6 and has moved up to -7 and hovered around that line since. The public seems to be favoring the Saints with their high scoring offense.

One of my favorite Myths that I have heard is that the Saints are going to be a tough team to beat in the Superdome...

FACT:

"New Orleans (1.0): The Saints are 39-35 on the road and 31-39 at home over the last nine seasons. The Superdome has truly not been of any special significance for the Saints. In fact, their ATS mark at home this decade is 23-41-2."

-No Edge at Home
September 20, 2009
By Scott Rickenbach
(From the post Shambler made)

Let's take a deeper look at both teams:

Saints Offense vs. Jets Defense

The Jets picked up Rex Ryan as their head coach from the Baltimore Ravens and it has made an immediate impact on this team. Just ask Tom Brady.

The Saints have looked as good as they ever have, averaging 40 points perand 438 yards per game.

However, if we look at who the two teams have played, we see a different side of the story.

Sure, the Saints played and beat up a Philly team that had just lost their star QB with a broken rib. But in reality, they have played a very easy schedule so far with the other two teams being Detroit (0-3) and the Buffalo Bills (1-2).

If you look back to last season, the Saints seem to falter against teams that had a good defense and could put pressure on Brees such as Carolina (twice), Chicago, Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Washington.

However, I think the Saints have proven to me that they can shut down an offense with the best. With Mike Bell not 100% I think it will be easy for the Jets to make Brees pass the ball. Well, the Jets only allowed Shaub to go 18/33, 166 yards, 0 TD's and 1 INT. Furthermore they held Tom Brady to 23/47, 216 yards, 0 TD's and 1 INT.

If the Jets can keep their defense off the field resting, then I think they have a great shot at keeping Brees and his pass happy defense in check.

On another note, Lito Shepperd might be back at cornerback for this one.

Jets Offense vs. Saints Defense

With the Jets averaging 190 yards/game on the ground in the last 3 games, I would expect them to try and control the game and the tempo ofthe game by keeping their offense on the field and their defense resting on the sidelines.

Of course, we could look at the Saints and their rushing defense and say that they should be able to stop the Jets. However, I am not 100% sold. They have some defensive players that are not 100% and they played against teams that needed to go to the air to try and make any attempt to come back. The only team not put in this position was the Bills, and they still only rushed 21 times.

This is an offense that can be very efficient switching between two above average running backs in Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. Also, don't let Sanchez's Passer Rating fool you. He is completing just shy of 60% of his passes and already has shown the knack to make the big play when it counts. Given the two, I would take Sanchez to march down the field for a game winner over Brees, who I don't think I have ever seen pull a 2 minute come from behind victory...

Conclusion

This game can and should be close. But the Jets, in my opinion, have played a stronger schedule and have shown that they can play the controlled keep-away style football that they will need to win this game.

Jets 24 Saints 21

Pick:

Jets +7 *3 Units

 

[BigLouReturns]

2008 Jets

"The Jets, with Brett Favre, opened the season with a bang and finished the season with 5 straight losses to go 7-9."

They actually lost 4 of their last 5 to finish 9-7.

"If you look back to last season, the Saints seem to falter against teams that had a good defense and could put pressure on Brees such as Carolina (twice), Chicago, Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Washington."

Why are we looking back to last season regarding the Saints but not the Jets?

Big Lou

 

[ClayBetting]

"The Jets, with Brett Favre, opened the season with a bang and finished the season with 5 straight losses to go 7-9."

They actually lost 4 of their last 5 to finish 9-7.

"If you look back to last season, the Saints seem to falter against teams that had a good defense and could put pressure on Brees such as Carolina (twice), Chicago, Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Washington."

Why are we looking back to last season regarding the Saints but not the Jets?

Big Lou

My mistake. Yes, they beat the Bills in week 15 and finished 9-7 instead of 7-9.

The reason I am looking back to last year for the Saints and not the Jets is because the Saints have pretty much the same team, coaching and philosophy as last year. The Jets, however, have changed coaches, players, including QB's and their philosophy in general has changed with their new coach. The Jets this year can't really be compared with last year.

 

[BigLouReturns]

Interesting take.

 

[ClayBetting]

Two Other Games that I took early:

Cincinatti -5 *3 Units
NYG -9 *3 Units

Also leaning towards:

Ravens and the Under
Denver ML
Miami ML

 

[ClayBetting]

Final Card (for now):

Jets +7 *3 Units
Cinci -5 *3 Units
NYG -9 *3 Units
Denver Broncos ML +125 *1.6 Units to Win 2

7 Point Teaser
Colts -3 & Colts/Seahawks OVER 37 *2 Units

6 Point Teaser
Ravens +7.5 & Ravens/Patriots UNDER 50.5 *2 Units

-----------------------
NFL: 19-16-1 -7.8 Units

 

[ClayBetting]

Added one more:

Bears -9.5 *3 Units

 

[ClayBetting]

2 more and I'm done:

Bills/Miami OVER 37 *2 Units
Jets/Saints 1H UNDER 23 (-115) *2 Units

Final Card:

Jets +7 *3 Units
Cinci -5 *3 Units
NYG -9 *3 Units
Denver Broncos ML +125 *1.6 Units to Win 2
Bears -9.5 *3 Units
Bills/Miami OVER 37 *2 Units
Jets/Saints 1H UNDER 23 (-115) *2 Units

7 Point Teaser
Colts -3 & Colts/Seahawks OVER 37 *2 Units

6 Point Teaser
Ravens +7.5 & Ravens/Patriots UNDER 50.5 *2 Units

NFL: 19-16-1 -7.8 Units

 

[ClayBetting]

Mid Day Update

Jets +7 *3 Units
Cinci -5 *3 Units
NYG -9 *3 Units
Denver Broncos ML +125 *1.6 Units to Win 2
Bears -9.5 *3 Units
Bills/Miami OVER 37 *2 Units
Jets/Saints 1H UNDER 23 (-115) *2 Units

7 Point Teaser
Colts -3 & Colts/Seahawks OVER 37 *2 Units

6 Point Teaser
Ravens +7.5 & Ravens/Patriots UNDER 50.5 *2 Units

Hope to cash the last two...

--------------------------
NFL: 24-17-1 +.9 Units

 

[awmllc2000]

looking good

 

[TsunamiIsDaBomb]

Games are looking good today Clay, Giants game was starting to get sketch at the 4th though. Hopefully Denver steps up in 2nd half, i played them as well. Good luck on the rest of your games

 

[ClayBetting]

Thanks amigos!

Final Update for Sunday:

Jets +7 *3 Units
Denver Broncos ML +125 *1.6 Units to Win 2
Bills/Miami OVER 37 *2 Units

Still like the Jets pick, Sanchez learned a lot today. Still high on the Jets. Must say that the Saints defense was very impressive too.

But, I needed today big time. Back in the green and ready for next week!

Today's Record:

7-2 +9.4 Units

Overall:

-----------------
NFL: 26-18-1 (57%) +1.6 Units