Clay's NCAAF 2009 Picks

[unc50]

It's not pro sports dude. They still have to go to class and take exams and write papers, at least at my school they did.

Anyway- the home team was 11-2 SU on ESPN Thursday night games last year

and this year they are 5-0 SU

Thursday night home games are worth at least a TD. So, the question is....is Nebraska 10.5 points better than Mizzou, because they'll have to be 10.5 points better if they want to cover this spread. I don't see it happenin. I've learned you can research and cap all you want, it really comes down to very simple logic. home team thursday.


<input id="gwProxy" type="hidden"><!--Session data--><input onclick="jsCall();" id="jsProxy" type="hidden">

 

[ClayBetting]

It's not pro sports dude. They still have to go to class and take exams and write papers, at least at my school they did.

They have to do this no matter what day of the week they play... Doesn't make a difference. However, they're not assed out from playing a game 5 days before...

Anyway- the home team was 11-2 SU on ESPN Thursday night games last year

and this year they are 5-0 SU

Thursday night home games are worth at least a TD. So, the question is....is Nebraska 10.5 points better than Mizzou, because they'll have to be 10.5 points better if they want to cover this spread. I don't see it happenin. I've learned you can research and cap all you want, it really comes down to very simple logic. home team thursday.

Thanks for the input, but you're ass backwards. I don't care if Nebraska is 10.5 points better. I have Nebraska -3, they only have to be 4 points better. In the weather they are going to have, I'll take nebraska and the under every time. Give me a big running team against an aerial assault in 18 mph winds and torrential downpours for -3 all day long.

I agree that home dog thursday is a good play, except the reason WHY it is a good play doesn't effect this game. It's not like Thursday is some special day of the week where only home teams wins... unless you look into it and find out this game doesn't apply...

Bol either way, I'm not changing my opinion, I might win and I might lose. That's why its called betting.

P.S. Let me know where your thread and picks are...

 

[fadethepublic1]

Clay,
i am on the other side, again!!! LoL i cant go against any home team on a weekday. Just some kind of home team aura in the air on wkdays. I know if the game was to be played on a saturday or anywhere else, i would stay away from this game. Also, look at the line value we are getting from last year. A whopping 19 pt swing. Do you honestly think that Nebraska is 3 tds better than mizzou this year?

 

[TOOTIGHT]

Regarding the home team Thursday night theory, I think odds makers have taken that into consideration now. Look at last weeks line when WVU was giving up 17.5 points! As soon as I saw that line I said to myself, it's going to be hard to ride the home team this year on Thursday. Now Tuesday and Wednesday are still OK to ride the home team most of the time IMO.

Anyway, I'm probably not playing this one but I wouldn't bank on the home team theory this year, the cat is out of the bag if you know what I mean...

 

[ClayBetting]

Clay,
i am on the other side, again!!! LoL i cant go against any home team on a weekday. Just some kind of home team aura in the air on wkdays. I know if the game was to be played on a saturday or anywhere else, i would stay away from this game. Also, look at the line value we are getting from last year. A whopping 19 pt swing. Do you honestly think that Nebraska is 3 tds better than mizzou this year?

I actually don't like you being on the other side of my plays, lol.

I do think the 19 point swing is scary, but Mizzou lost a ton of talent from last year. Also, I know Nebraska has played crappy teams, but they have dominated those teams, which still means something to me.

The deciding factor to me is the weather. I may have stayed away from the game, or put a small number on Mizzou if the weather was going to be good, but I think that Nebraska gets a HUGE advantage in windy/wainy conditions.

Should be a good game, just wish it was being played on a grass field with a lot of mud and debris...

 

[fadethepublic1]

I actually don't like you being on the other side of my plays, lol.

I do think the 19 point swing is scary, but Mizzou lost a ton of talent from last year. Also, I know Nebraska has played crappy teams, but they have dominated those teams, which still means something to me.

The deciding factor to me is the weather. I may have stayed away from the game, or put a small number on Mizzou if the weather was going to be good, but I think that Nebraska gets a HUGE advantage in windy/wainy conditions.

Should be a good game, just wish it was being played on a grass field with a lot of mud and debris...

wind = bad for Mizzou
rain = bad for Nebraska/good for Mizzou
clear = bad for Nebraska

 

[fadethepublic1]

Clay,
What do you have for tomorrow? LaTech @ Nevada?

 

[ClayBetting]

Clay,
What do you have for tomorrow? LaTech @ Nevada?

Nothing yet. Just got back to work after my grandfather's funeral yesterday on the other side of the state. Haven't had time to look at anything. Will start looking tonight/tomorrow. Got a ton of work to get done...

What do you think about the under?

 

[ClayBetting]

I have a question for you:

When is the last time a home team on Thursday night lost the game?
<input id="gwProxy" type="hidden"><!--Session data--><input onclick="jsCall();" id="jsProxy" type="hidden">

Can I answer this now. Glad I didn't change my mind. This was a big win for me tonight. Grays to everyone on NE and the under.

 

[FavreHater]

Good Job Clay! Big win for us Nebraska bettors, and a hell of a comeback!arty: You are hot right now, hit me up with some college plays

 

[fadethepublic1]

Can I answer this now. Glad I didn't change my mind. This was a big win for me tonight. Grays to everyone on NE and the under.

Good call on that one Clay. That was purely Gabbert at his worst. 14 pts off of turnovers clearly lost them the game & the cover. Wrong side tonite, but was on the right side (i mean lucky side) last week w/Colorado.

As for tomorrow, I have no leans on the O/U but will probably play a side. Just don't know which one yet.

 

[unc50]

yep- good job man. kudos to you.

it certainly didn't look good this first 45 minutes, either way, it was obvious that nebraska was the better team. still tho, the better team doesn't always win, they did tonight. gjob.


<input id="gwProxy" type="hidden"><!--Session data--><input onclick="jsCall();" id="jsProxy" type="hidden">

 

[ClayBetting]

Thanks guys. That was a hell of a game. Would have never seen the end either except that my newborn was wide awake and wouldn't go back to sleep. I think we learned a lt that game and if I had to pick again I still wouldn't know what side. Nebraska D looked good and I think the rain slowed down mizzou enough to make them look better. Two good teams last night for sure. Crazy game. Will pick some more as soon as I get some time today.

 

[ClayBetting]

Leaning towards LA Tech and the Over tonight. Going to wait to see how good of a number I can grab Tech for, but I like the over much better.

------------------
NCAAF: 36-31-1 +.15 Units

 

[ClayBetting]

Ok, not really psyched about this game tonight. I think Nevada was the play, but line has no value now.

Gonna think that both teams score easily in this one and take:

Louisiana Tech/Nevada Over 58 *1 Unit

 

[ClayBetting]

The rest of my picks for this weekend:

Michigan +8 *3 Units
Michigan/Iowa UNDER 47 *2 Units
Arkansas +3 (-125) *2 Units
Wisconsin +16 (-115) *2 Units
Boston College +14 (-120) *2 Units
Ga Tech +3 (-115) *2 Units
LSU/Florida UNDER 44.5 *2 Units
LSU +7.5 *2 Units
UCLA +3.5 (-115) *2 Units

GL to everyone tonight and tomorrow!

-----------------
NCAAF: 36-31-1 +.15 Units

 

[ClayBetting]

Adding:

SMU +6.5 *2 Units
Illinois +3.5 *2 Units

 

[fadethepublic1]

adding:

Smu +6.5 *2 units
illinois +3.5 *2 units

 

[ClayBetting]

Saw you on those. Looked like a lot of the people I trust are on those games, so thought I would hop on. Let's cash it! <><>

 

[awmllc2000]

good luck man