Circa Survivor

[CHOPTALK]

7 out with Buffalo

Why would anyone take Buffalo in that spot lol

 

[chrishansen]

Why would anyone take Buffalo in that spot lol

Lol

Gotta admit that is strange. I would truly love to hear the reasoning from them behind that thought process

 

[PatsFan1283]

Just curious, if you think you’re good at survivor. Wouldn’t you wanna do a field a little smaller so that you can see your edge sometime in your life?

9k entries is a lottery

And if I won 9, I’d just get gunned down in a standoff with the govt because I’m not giving up 4.5 in lump sum taxes anyway

 

[chrishansen]

Just curious, if you think you’re good at survivor. Wouldn’t you wanna do a field a little smaller so that you can see your edge sometime in your life?

9k entries is a lottery

And if I won 9, I’d just get gunned down in a standoff with the govt because I’m not giving up 4.5 in lump sum taxes anyway

It’s not so much a lottery. They look easy but hard. People gravitate to the same teams each week (as they should in many cases) but 4-5 times a year upsets just wipe out huge chunks.

I’d be surprised if more than 4-5 of 9k go 20-0. Especially with the twist of the two mini weeks and so late in year. Unless chalk just has a crazy year and wins out

As far as taxes, let me know if ya win. I’ll join ya in the shootout. Fuck the government always taking huge chunks !

 

[REDEYE]

Just curious, if you think you’re good at survivor. Wouldn’t you wanna do a field a little smaller so that you can see your edge sometime in your life?

9k entries is a lottery

And if I won 9, I’d just get gunned down in a standoff with the govt because I’m not giving up 4.5 in lump sum taxes anyway

Its all in fun..

 

[PatsFan1283]

I didn’t say it wasn’t +EV, I just said it’s a lottery. A lottery can be +EV

you’re a huge dog to win that in your lifetime, whereas smaller field be easier to realize edge, all I was saying

 

[REDEYE]

I didn’t say it wasn’t +EV, I just said it’s a lottery. A lottery can be +EV

you’re a huge dog to win that in your lifetime, whereas smaller field be easier to realize edge, all I was saying

I've got to week 10 or 11 before in this contest.. the excitement moving forward was worth the cost. Was also thinking maybe I can do some hedging in the right scenario.

 

[PatsFan1283]

I've got to week 10 or 11 before in this contest.. the excitement moving forward was worth the cost. Was also thinking maybe I can do some hedging in the right scenario.

yeah it’s possible to do that at a certain point if you can outlast a big % of the field

 

[REDEYE]

yeah it’s possible to do that at a certain point if you can outlast a big % of the field

a buddy of mine was one of the 19 or so that shared the prize a couple of years ago. He hedged the last week and did very well, adding to his prize.

 

[PatsFan1283]

I would’ve split like 17 ways in one a few years ago if the Saints didn’t lose in OT to the Falcons in like week 12-13ish

I think that was like 4500 people but I forget

 

[Avocado33]

Contemplating Broncos and Giants. Oof


Don't wanna use Buffalo, but maybe it's not such a waste if they are in for a down year

 

[Willie99]

It’s not so much a lottery. They look easy but hard. People gravitate to the same teams each week (as they should in many cases) but 4-5 times a year upsets just wipe out huge chunks.

I’d be surprised if more than 4-5 of 9k go 20-0. Especially with the twist of the two mini weeks and so late in year. Unless chalk just has a crazy year and wins out

As far as taxes, let me know if ya win. I’ll join ya in the shootout. Fuck the government always taking huge chunks !

it's not chalk that carries the day in these contests, it's about having one or two great fades

 

[dogball]

Contemplating Broncos and Giants. Oof


Don't wanna use Buffalo, but maybe it's not such a waste if they are in for a down year

same for me, I am in this. Giants look to be winners and when else do I want to use them ever ? Buffalo probably will be most selected with Dallas, Raiders can be tricky but Buffalo should pull away late to win.

 

[REDEYE]

same for me, I am in this. Giants look to be winners and when else do I want to use them ever ? Buffalo probably will be most selected with Dallas, Raiders can be tricky but Buffalo should pull away late to win.

Most will save Dallas for later. Circa contest has a separate Thanksgiving survivor week , which makes holding on to them at home against Washington as a strong possibility.

 

[Avocado33]

Most will save Dallas for later. Circa contest has a separate Thanksgiving survivor week , which makes holding on to them at home against Washington as a strong possibility.

Lot of future value with Cowboys with two Commanders games

I am playing the Broncos lol oof

 

[dogball]

Giants or Buffalo for me this week, GL all

 

[MAGAking1]

Giants are a must take in events where there are double or even multiple double picks weeks.

Im in one where weeks 13 to 18 are double......be surprised if that goes till the end

 

[Railbird]

Contemplating Broncos and Giants. Oof


Don't wanna use Buffalo, but maybe it's not such a waste if they are in for a down year

tampa bay

 

[Willie99]

Cowboys, I don't think Zac Wilson can beat that defense.

And I'm not from the school of saving picks. I don't make cute picks, I don't take road teams or dawqs and I prefer to stay away from division rivals

Survive and advance. Later in the tournament I'll start looking at saving picks for future weeks, but early on I just play to get to those later weeks




PS: of course, bullshit happens so there's no sure path

 

[Heatwave]

I am in this as well this year. I agree with the "pick this week and deal with next week then" strategy.

Took Baltimore Week 1 - rookie QB on road starting first ever game
Dallas Week 2 - Jets bringing knife to a gun fight with Wilson here