Christmas Eve Service Plays 12/24/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

TheRX.com Policy on Posting Handicapper Plays:
In the poster agreement that all posters agree to when signing up, posters have agreed to NOT post copyrighted information.
Some handicappers do not mind having their plays posted, If we are asked by any company to not let their information be posted here, we will comply with the request and remove the information if we see it.
For The Record.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To all services and professional handicappers. I am only going to be editing posts where your copyrighted write-ups are involved. Please do not email me if someone simply posts so and so likes xyz team plus or minus so many points only.
Thank you, wilheim..

We have received requests from the following companies:
PlusLineSports- Do not post
PowerPlay Wins
The Real Animal
THELOCKOFTHEDAY
Right Angle Sports (RAS)
Tony Karpinski and 3G-Sports
Discreat Cat (do not post at all)
Dr. Bob Sports
Dr. guru sports
madduxsports
Red Zone Sports
Dennis Hill
Peter Gold at VI
Strike Point Sports
Vegas Sports Informer
Winning Points/Sports Reporter
ASA, ASA Inc’s or American Sports Analysts
Sal Bansa/sportspicks1019
Mikelineback
Larry Ness
Al McMordie
zen_gambler
Tom Stryker
Lenny Delgenio
Scott Spreitzer
Matt Fargo
@ntonwins
Doc's Sports Services
Robert Ferringo
Pacific (Pac Star) Sports
The Prez
Mike Rose
LT Profits
Pregame.- which include (shaker,law,o'shea,jwip,creole,nover,rocketman,d'angelo,vrunner)
Alex Smart
JB Sports
ATS Consultants
Ken Jenkins
AJ Apollo
Jim Avery
Jim Kruger
Paul Stone
Ross Benjamin
Dave Cokin
Tony George
Fred Wallin
Rocky Atkinson
Jorge Gonzalez
Greg DiPalma
Vernon Croy
Ron Raymond
Dennis Macklin
Ben Lewis
Lucky Lester
Bruce Marshall
Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers)
Ben Burns
Fairway Jay
EZ Winners
Pointwise Sports
Pro Sports Info
Steve Merril SportsAlatex Sports
Tennessee Valley Sports
Trushel Sports Consulting
Sports Memo Crew which include:
Rob Veno,Brent Crow,Erin Rynning,Donnie Black,Marty Otto,Jared Klein,David Jones,Ed Cash
Sixth Sense Sports
Marc Lawrence, and/or
Playbook, and/or
Preferred Picks
Boxslayer

****Please note we can post Picks ONLY for the services above - NO WRITE - UPS. All other services not on this list can be posted in any fashion. GL!<!-- / message --> <!-- / message -->
<!-- / message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

I'll be having this tonight. Enjoy the family time! It's a very small card, like 1 bowl game and that's it. Get your game in and enjoy your Christmas eve!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF DUNKEL INDEX

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 24

Game 211-212: SMU vs. Nevada
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 76.356; Nevada 98.282
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 22; 79
Vegas Line: Nevada by 13 1/2; 72 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-13 1/2); Over

 

[dfresh1239]

Killersports bowl pick?
now 8-1 i beleive

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF SHORT SHEET

Thursday, December 24th

Hawaii Bowl
Honolulu, HI
TV: ESPN
SMU vs. Nevada, 8:00 ET

SMU:
12-3 Over off home win
6-1 ATS as an underdog

Nevada:
6-0 Over off BB ATS wins
15-9 Over if the total is 63+

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF ADDITIONAL

Trend Report

Thursday, December 24

8:00 PM
SOUTHERN METHODIST vs. NEVADA
Southern Methodist is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Southern Methodist is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Nevada is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Nevada is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday, December 24

Hawaii Bowl

Southern Methodist Mustangs vs. Nevada Wolfpack (-13.5, 72.5)

How they got here

The Mustangs entered the season on a 17-game C-USA losing streak, but they finished 6-2 in conference, including an outright win over eventual champ East Carolina.

The win over the Pirates was SMU’s lone victory against a bowl bound foe. Their other five FBS wins came against teams that were a combined 19-41 straight up.

Nevada shook off a disappointing 0-3 start to go 8-1 down the stretch with their lone loss was an ATS win at Boise State.

The Wolfpack beat two bowl teams – Fresno State and Idaho – by a combined margin of 122-59. But the squad’s other two tries against bowl bound clubs both resulted in double-digit defeats.

SMU scouting report

The headlines here are all about SMU head coach June Jones returning to his old stomping grounds in Hawaii, where he won a national coach of the year award and took the Warriors all the way to a BCS Bowl following their undefeated 2007 regular season.

The real story is that SMU finally ended one of the longest bowl droughts in FBS football, dating all the way back to their ‘death penalty’ verdict for numerous NCAA violations back in the 1980s.

Jones’ offense is led by frosh QB Kyle Padron, who drove the Mustangs to a 4-1 record after Bo Levi Mitchell got hurt. Mitchell is healthy now, but he hasn’t won his job back.

Emmanuel Sanders caught 91 balls in this pass-happy offense, but RB Shawnbrey McNeal gave them real balance with more than 1,200 yards on the ground. Linebacker Chase Kennemer led the team in tackles, tackles for loss and fumble recoveries.

The Nevada story

Nevada has been a perennial bowl team in recent years, making its fifth consecutive bowl appearance. The team lost its bowl games in each of the last three years, including a seven-point loss as a favorite against Maryland last year in the Humanitarian Bowl.

The Wolfpack’s lone bowl victory this decade came right here at the Hawaii Bowl in 2005, a 49-48 OT thriller against UCF, but they didn’t cover the pointspread as 2.5 point favorites.
The Wolfpack were a dominant rushing team this year, leading the nation with a whopping 4,337 yards on the ground. Nevada also led the country in rushing yards per attempt by a wide margin, gaining 7.6 yards per attempt. The No. 2 team in college football finished with 6.0 yards per carry - a clear indication of the big-play ability that Nevada enjoys from its running game.

The Wolfpack offensive line felt spurned, after the unit failed to receive a single All-WAC first team selection.

“Some of the offensive linemen are kind of mad about the first-team thing,” running back Vai Taua told reporters. “I think they definitely want to get out there and hit some people."

Nevada’s defense struggled against the pass this year, ranking 114th in pass efficiency and 119th in passing yards allowed.

Key injuries

Nevada has a three-headed rushing attack with QB Colin Kaepernick and RBs Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott each gaining more than 1000 yards on the ground. But Taua flunked out of school and was ruled academically ineligible for the bowl game. Lippincott has a toe injury that will force him to miss the game as well.

Sophomore RB Lampford Mark and frosh RB Mike Ball have big shoes to fill for this one.

Pointspread movement

Nevada opened as a 12-point favorite, but wiseguy money immediately poured in on the Wolfpack, driving the line as high as -15. Over the last few days, due to some key injury information, the money has been coming the other way, pushing the current number down to Nevada -13.5.

The total opened at 73, but the injury info has affected that number as well, with the current total sitting at 72.5.

 

[Halfbak34]

So who to choose??

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Street Rosenthal
3-0 Last night.

*200 SMU +12.5 (NCAAF)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trey Scott
6-3 in the last 3 days.

*200 SMU/NEVADA OVER 72

 

[DeuceII]

PointWise

HAWAII
BOWL
CALIFORNIA (8-4) vs UTAH (9-3)
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 23
8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
California ... 47.2 .. 29-25 .. 21-19 .. 175-117 .. 223-260 .. + 6 . Utah
Utah ............ 40.8 .. 29-20 .. 19-18 .. 169-141 .. 220-175 .. + 3 . by 1.9 Pts
ANALYSIS
A year ago, the Utes shocked the college football world, not only by finishing
the regular season with a perfect 12-0 log, but by demolishing mighty Alabama
in the Sugar Bowl, a 23-pt cover, while holding the Tide to just 208 yds. That
win extended Utah's bowl streak to 8 straight wins, the nation's longest active
such run. And throughout that run, they've allowed only one team to top 17 pts
(Utes' 35-32 win over Navy, 2 years ago, in this same bowl). This year, they've
been nowhere near their '08 overpowering squad, which entered that game vs
'Bama with a 37-17 ppg edge. They finished last year with the 35th ranked "O"
& 11th ranked "D". This season, they rank 53rd & 22nd in those categories,
respectively. But make no mistake, they are again a formidable opponent, as
only TCU took 'em with ease. A 15-yd deficit in 7-pt loss to Oregon, & a 33-yd
edge in OT loss to BYU, both on the road. One more note. For just the 2nd
time in school history they have a 1,000-yd rusher & receiver in the same year
(Wide & Reed). So hardly a pushover, & don't forget their current 23-3 SU run.
The Golden Bears of California are continuing a school record, with this their
7th consecutive bowl appearance, all in the 8 years of Tedford's tenure. They
again feature a balanced "O", with QB Riley throwing for 2,636 yds & 17 TDs
(6 picks). Best still leads the overland column, with 867 yds, but he has missed
the last 3 gms, following a severe concussion. However, Vereen is averaging
148 RYpg since taking over as starter. Utah has allowed only 12.9 ppg in 21 of
its last 22 games (TCU), while Cal has ceded at least 30 pts in 4 of its last 11
outings, including a 39-pt ATS loss in its last game. We grab the FG spot here.
PROPHECY: UTAH 30 - California 20 RATING: 1
NEVADA (8-4) vs SMU (7-5)
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 24
8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Nevada ....... 40.5 .. 41-27 .. 24-20 .. 362-115 .. 159-284 .. - 2 . Nevada
SMU ............ 37.2 .. 28-29 .. 19-20 .. 113-169 .. 267-235 .. + 1 . by 25.7 Pts
ANALYSIS
June Jones returns to Hawaii. That, of course, is the obvious lead story in this
game. As former head coach of the Hawaii Rainbows, he wrote a chapter that
may never be matched, & that includes the greatest turnaround in NCAA Div1A
history, when the 'Bows followed their 0-12 '98 mark, with a spectacular 9-4
log in '99, which included a 23-17 win over OregonSt in the Oahu Bowl, as 8½
pt dogs. That, by the way, was his initial season at Hawaii's helm. Simply
unbelievable! Well, he has nearly succeeded in duplicating that feat with the
'Stangs (altho it has taken him 2 years), as LY's 1-11 mark has morphed into
TY's 7-5 record, once more, the biggest turnaround in the nation this season,
with the result an SMU bowl spot for the first time since 1984. As can be seen
above, & much like his Hawaii era, the Ponies do it mainly overhead, behind
the duo of Mitchell & Padron. But, whereas in '08, when they ranked dead last
in the nation, overland (41 ypg), they've raised that mark by 72 ypg, with 1,125
RYs from McNeal. They're also 25 notches ahead of LY's 118th standing in
total "D". But that unit had better be at its absolute best, if it is to contain the
nation's most feared overland game. For the Wolf Pack of Nevada, this marks
their 5th straight bowl season, with just a single win (49-48) to show for their
efforts, including an embarrassing 114 RYs in a 42-35 loss to Maryland in LY's
Humanitarian. But TY, they are nearly unstoppable, behind the first-ever triad
of 1,000-yd rushers: Tuau, Kaepernick, & Lippincott. Try 7.8, 7.8, & 7.7 ypr for
that trio. Try 559, 454, 517, 461, & 574 RYs in an 8-game run, in which they
averaged 51.6 ppg. Jones, as a 2-TD dog is tempting, but not vs this machine.
PROPHECY: NEVADA 48 - Smu 24
RATING: 1

 

[DeuceII]

POWER PLAYS

HAWAII BOWL Thursday, December 24, 2009 @ 8:00 pm • ESPN
NEVADA (8-4) Honolulu, Hawaii SMU (7-5)
POWER PLAYS PROJECTION RUSH PASS POINTS TO’s SP TEAMS A.O.R.
NEVADA 352 165 41 2.2 ✔ 93.6
SMU 68 305 28 2.5 – 92.1
SMU HC June Jones returns to Hawaii but has to face the formidable Nevada off. PP says SMU
will keep it within the number losing by 13 (line 15’) with the ydg forecast closer than you might think
(NV 517-373). The dog in SMU games is 11-1 ATS TY.
4★ SMU (+) 28 NEVADA 41

 

[pjoyce5893]

Cleveland Insider 12/24/09

NCAA Bowl
Nevada -12.5

Last 4 days 9-4 (3-0 Bowl games)

 

[Casher808]

LuckyDaySports.com

Thursday’s Comp Play

NCAAF

Take Nevada (-12.5) in the Southern Methodist vs Nevada game

(1) Premium play available on Thursday (40-unit selection)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 24

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

HAWAII BOWL

(at Honolulu)

SMU (7-5, 6-5 ATS) vs. Nevada (8-4, 7-5 ATS)

In just his second year at Southern Methodist, coach June Jones has the Mustangs back in a bowl game for the first time in 25 years, and they’ll face the country’s top rushing team in Nevada at Aloha Stadium.

SMU won four of its final five games (2-3 ATS) and finished tied with Houston atop the Conference USA West Division. The Mustangs concluded the regular season with a 26-21 home win over Tulane, coming up well short as a 19½-point favorite. The underdog covered 10 of SMU’s 11 lined contests this year, including the last five in a row. The only exception was the Mustangs’ 38-15 loss at Houston as a 16-point underdog, a result that kept SMU from playing in the Conference USA championship game.

Nevada had an eight-game winning streak (6-2 ATS) snapped in a 44-33 loss at unbeaten Boise State on Nov. 27, a game that decided the Western Athletic Conference champion. But the Wolf Pack got a late score to cash as an 11½-point underdog, their fourth straight spread-cover. Nevada scored at least 31 points in each of its final nine games, tallying more than 50 five times and more than 60 four times. Prior to the Boise State contest, the favorite had gone 8-3 ATS in the Pack’s first 11 outings.

The Wolf Pack boast the country’s No. 1 rushing attack at 362.3 yards per game, and they became the first time in NCAA history to have three players rush for more than 1,000 yards, with Vai Taua leading the way with 1,345 yards (10 TDs), followed by QB Colin Kaepernick (1,160 yards, 16 rushing TDs) and Luke Lippincott (1,034 yards, 9 TDs). However, Taua (ineligible) and Lippincott (injury) have been ruled out for this game.

SMU hasn’t been in a bowl game since 1984 when it beat Notre Dame, but a year later the Mustangs were on probation for recruiting violations and three years later the NCAA shut down the program for continued violations. The Mustangs, who went 1-11 in Jones’ first year in 2008, enjoyed the single biggest turnaround in Division I-A this year.

Nevada fell 42-35 to Maryland in last year’s Humanitarian Bowl in Boise, Idaho, getting upset as a 2½-point favorite. The Wolf Pack are making their fifth straight postseason appearance, but the only win during this run came back in 2005 when they beat Central Florida 49-48 in this Hawaii Bowl, failing to cover as a 3½-point favorite.

These teams haven’t met since they were WAC rivals earlier this decade. In the most recent clash in 2004, SMU beat Nevada 38-20 as a five-point home ‘dog after losing the previous three seasons (1-2 ATS).

In addition to being the nation’s most prolific rushing team, the Wolf Pack rank second in the country with 521.6 total yards per game and fifth in scoring at 40.6 points per contest. Defensively, Nevada surrenders 27.2 points and 399.6 total yards per game, but just 115.3 rushing ypg.

The Mustangs averaged 30 points and 394.4 total yards per contest over their final five games. They are led by RB Shawnbrey McNeal, who ran for 1,125 yards and nine TDs, and WR Emmanuel Sanders who holds the school record for catches in a season (91) and receiving yards (1,215). The problem has been SMU’s defense, which is allowing 29.1 points and 404 yards per game (169.2 rushing ypg). The Mustangs yielded 30-plus points in seven of their 11 Division I-A games.

The Mustangs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last six against winning teams, however they are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. Nevada is just 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference contests, but otherwise it is on positive ATS streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-1 as a favorite and 14-3 as a favorite of more than 10 points.

SMU has topped the total in 16 of its last 21 after a straight-up win and five of six against WAC schools, but the under for the Mustangs is on runs of 7-3-1 as an underdog and 15-5-1 as a ‘dog of more than 10 points. The Wolf Pack are on “over” stretches of 5-2 overall and 7-3 after a spread-cover.


ATS ADVANTAGE: NEVADA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Jazz ( 2) and West Virginia (-10-1/2) and hit with Blackhawks Wednesday night.

Today it's Nevada. The deficit is 70 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF WRITE-UP

Thursday, December 24

Hawaii Bowl

June Jones returns to paradise with an SMU team playing in bowl for first time since 1984; Mustangs are 6-1 vs spread as an underdog in '09, and dogs are 5-0 vs spread in bowls so far this year. Jones was 3-1 in his last four bowls with Hawai'i, scoring 41 ppg. Nevada's two best RBs are suspended for this game; Wolf Pack is playing in its fifth straight bowl, losing last three, allowing 33.5 ppg (average total, 58.5).

Nevada won here 49-48 in 2005; they come here to play conference rival Hawai'i. Wolf Pack were 0-3 at one point this year, losing to Colorado St 35-20, a bad loss, but then they won eight in row before losing 44-33 at Boise State in regular season finale. SMU is 7-5 despite losing two OT games (@ Washington State, Navy); the losing team scored 30+ points in four of its 12 games.

Underdog is 11-1 vs spread this season in SMU games. Conference USA underdogs are 7-11 vs spread on road. C-USA bowl teams are 14-20 the last seven years, 7-10 the last three. WAC teams lost seven of last nine bowls the last two years. WAC favorites are 5-2 vs spread in non-league, games, 2-2 away from home.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ATS LOCK CLUB AND TOTALS

3 units on SMU +12.5
3 OVER 72 SMU/Nevada

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DR BOB

**SMU 31 Nevada (-12.5) 35 (at Hawaii Bowl)
05:00 PM Pacific, 24-Dec-09

I'll take SMU in a 2-Star Best Bet at +11 points or more and for 3-Stars at +14 or more. I will also lean with the Under 69 points or higher.
Strong Opinion

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mr. A's

Thursday, December 24th 8:00 PM EST.
Nevada Wolf Pack (8-4) vs. S-M-U Mustangs (7-5)
Aloha Stadium (50,000) -- Honolulu, Hawaii
The Mustangs will not be able keep up with the Wolf Pack's explosive offense. Nevada has won three of the last four meetings and is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games, while Southern Methodist is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Oddsmakers: Nevada as a -12½ point favorite with the total listed at 72½ 'over'.

Nevada Wolf Pack -12½