Wash + 3 - 1 unit
NE - 6 (-118) - 2 units
SEA - 2.5 (-115) - 1 unit
As you can see I am with the squares on 2 of these (I would assume). But I am ok with it. I also like Detroit but the line is at 2.5 and I see no reason to rush. Detroit has been sneaky good, and have covered for me vs Wash and Philly recently. I will see how things shake out and make a decision then. Perhaps I may look at a TT or a FH line or ML, rather than bite at 2.5. I have a small hunch the bears may blow up every teaser in football, but don't think I will play on it.
A few sentences on my rationales....
On Wash:
When I first saw this line I thought it was actually in Cinci I didn't think the line was out of sorts (I would've guessed 4). So I was surprised to see it was on a neutral field. Cinci is coming off a win, but if you look back, they have been a mess before that. Wash has been feisty, covering vs Phi (to my profit) and were damn close to a road cover last week. I think these teams are about equal so I am taking the points.
On SEA:
With the squares on two of these. but I think there is some value here in light of their horrific offense lately. Bob Scucci, who is the chief maker for the Orleans, said the ticket count is much more equal than he expected because the public prefers a big offense to a stagnant one. And while I don't trust the consensus numbers on Wunderdog or Covers as all that helpful, for what its worth, they show a 52-48 split. So maybe the public is not all that confident in the Hawks. It is obvious Wilson is having a bad year, and is not scrambling. I think they set things right in NO in a big way. Plus, if the line goes up I may be able to attack a middle at 3.
On NE:
I am a homer but I am not convinced this is not a homer pick. NE's historical dominance of Buffalo is crazy. I forget the number -- but it is like 27-6 or something (and of those wins, one was a game where all the starters rested in week 17, the other vs a Jacoby Brissett with no thumb). Tom Brady in particular,
is 25-3 with 62 TDs and a 100+ QB rating vs Buffalo. That is not a typo.
I can't imagine NE not showing up for this game and getting swept by this team. I was pondering waiting and going for a FH play, but by the time those games are released with will almost assuredly be above 3, so I am pouncing now. I am playing this with confidence and before it goes up to 7. Sharps play against NE every week, including vs Pitt. But NE has only lost one game ATS and I still think the book isn't catching up with them.
Going to keep my card (or try to) a little small since I am on a roll and don't want to put so much liability on one week. I will probably add something, especially if I see 2nd half value, or values on team totals or first half lines when they are released. But I have to admit, I think most of these lines are pretty good, and hard to figure.
