I made a thread for each week, but I always post a link to the previous week at the top (third post this week, normally the top post). Otherwise it becomes excessively long and hard to navigate (between all the picks and pleasantries, it gets to be too much, I feel). I tried the one big thread in the NBA and find I like this way better. But if you got to the top you can click on last weeks (and so on, down to week 1).
Man, everytime I have a good morning the afternoon humbles me...both of my bets are down 2 scores 
Will still be a good day if i lose them both, but at least want close games for my own edification/endorphin rush.
Cinci looks dreadful. LA not much better, but maybe that missed PAT will come into play in my favor.
Will still be a good day if i lose them both, but at least want close games for my own edification/endorphin rush.Cinci looks dreadful. LA not much better, but maybe that missed PAT will come into play in my favor.
Monday Night Football
Add:
TB Team Total OVER 20 - 1 unit
TB only scores an average of 19.25 points per game, but their game vs Denver (they scored 7) really weighs that down. In the 3 games outside of that they average almost 23 ppg. Meanwhile Carolina's defense is a mess, giving up 27.25 points per game. One of those offenses is the high-powered Falcons, but any inflation from that is easily matched by the fact that the other 3 opponents are all either bad, or defensive-minded (SF, Minny, Denver). I thought hard about TB -9.5 (1st Half, -120) -- and maybe I will add it -- as 11 of TB's 19 ppg come in the first half. But Carolina gives up a ridiculous 13.5 ppg in the 4th QTR, so I want that variable in my bet. As I noted, I am tempted to add another unit on the FH, but I have been conservative this season as far as liability, especially on prime time games. And, honestly, my record is not great on my 2 or 3 unit bets -- most of my profit comes from my 1 unit bets (the opposite was true for me last year, where my winning % wasn't nearly as good, but my unit total was as I wasn't good on 1-unit bets, but i was very good on 2-4 unit bets).
Good luck all!
Add:
TB Team Total OVER 20 - 1 unit
TB only scores an average of 19.25 points per game, but their game vs Denver (they scored 7) really weighs that down. In the 3 games outside of that they average almost 23 ppg. Meanwhile Carolina's defense is a mess, giving up 27.25 points per game. One of those offenses is the high-powered Falcons, but any inflation from that is easily matched by the fact that the other 3 opponents are all either bad, or defensive-minded (SF, Minny, Denver). I thought hard about TB -9.5 (1st Half, -120) -- and maybe I will add it -- as 11 of TB's 19 ppg come in the first half. But Carolina gives up a ridiculous 13.5 ppg in the 4th QTR, so I want that variable in my bet. As I noted, I am tempted to add another unit on the FH, but I have been conservative this season as far as liability, especially on prime time games. And, honestly, my record is not great on my 2 or 3 unit bets -- most of my profit comes from my 1 unit bets (the opposite was true for me last year, where my winning % wasn't nearly as good, but my unit total was as I wasn't good on 1-unit bets, but i was very good on 2-4 unit bets).
Good luck all!
I hear you on the conservative. As I posted, and I believe tmader was also on it, played the Ravens U for 2.5 units and than do what I always advise against put 1.5 units on a terrible Miami team. So instead of just playing my gut and going under last night, I make 3 small terrible live bets and of course give back another 1.5 units. For me, I have always found fewer plays is better, which is why I hate rollovers, makes,me tend to force plays, but I am only about 16 units from reaching mine so I am,trying to go only with my best plays from now on!
Chonce I think your great start is moving the line at my book. I can get the TB total at 19.5 but its -130 and I don't like laying more juice than -115. Do you like this play a lot? If TB scores a lot in 1st Q what about the 1st half over, I can get that at 22.5, but again its -130. Finally if Carolina gives up a lot in the 4th Q, I can get that at 10.5 and lay only -115. However, I see this as a close game so there could easily be onlyb2 scores in the 4th and one could be a FG. Of the 2 plays, which do you like better, the TB over 19.5 or the 1st Half Over 22.5. I would play both but the juice is so high, thinking about for once not forcing and just choosing 1 play for tonight. Thanks and GL tonight, hope your streak continues.
