Chonce's NFL Picks (Week 1)

[chonce]

Thanks all for the good luck wishes.

I just turned on my CPU for the first time today. 5 Dimes has NE getting 9.5! WTF. I know Gronk and Brady are out, but the defense in healthy (and good) the special teams is usually the best in the league and the coaching is always the best in the game.

I know the offense may well be a hot mess (both OT's out) but, tell me, am I clouded by fandom when I say 9.5 is way too much? If it hits 10 I am pouncing for sure.

 

[chonce]

Add:

Cin PK (-110)- 1 unit

5 Dimes has a good price here. I wanted no part of this game at first, and actually the line movement is often an indicator of a trap, so to speak. (I tried to generate a convo about why this line is moving so low, but people are busy --understandably--capping and betting).

But the Bengals have covered 8 straight road games. The Jets defense is depleted, every single person on ESPN picked the Jets, the Bengals usually start hot and the Jets got their QB back very late. I know Fitz knows the system, but the lack of reps could mean they will need some time to get going.

I am only laying a unit, for reasons mentioned above. I am seemingly betting against the sharps here, but you have to pick your spots. I think the Bengals are a better team, with a better QB and should win vs the Jets (who have a brutal schedule coming up).

 

[chonce]

So my card as of now
Den + 3 (winner +1 unit)


1 pm
SD FH Team Total OVER 9.5 (-120) - 1 unit
TB + 3 (-120) - 1 unit
Tenn +3 (-123) - 2 units
NO - 1 (-110) - 2 units
Cin PK (-110) - 1 unit

4 p.m.

Detroit + 4 (-110) - 1 unit

SNF

NE/Arizona UNDER 47.5 (-110) 2 units

That is it for me unless I see a halftime bet I like. I sort of like CHI + the points but my card is full enough. I also like NE getting 9 but it might be my own bias and I like the UNDER (which I got early before the Gronk news made it plummet) anyway.

 

[chonce]

SD Team Total hits! (FH OVER 9.5)

2-0 + 2 units so far (including Denver)

GL all!

 

[chonce]

Holy shit that Saints game was a gut punch. They won the game but of course refs call fucking DPI on every 4th down throw, and they scored, won with the 2. I have a good record but 3 of my 4 wins are for just 1 unit so marginal profits. Have Detroit and Arizona UNDER to go. Days like this make me wish I just put the same on each game. I would be much better off.

YTD: 4-2 +. 3 units (lost .7 total on juice).Will look for half-time value in the late games.

 

[chonce]

Add

​SEA - 4 (2h) (-110) 1 unit (5 Dimes)

 

[chonce]

5-3 +.2 units

Not much to write home about but I got a great price on the UNDER tonight, so I am hopeful that hits.

Not sure what/if I am playing the Monday games. I probably will play something, but two short road favs....tricky shit. SF may be the play, but we shall cross that bridge.

I just hope I hit my SNF UNDER 47.5.

 

[chonce]

Add
Pats 2nd Half TT OVER 7.5 (-105)

5 Dimes

 

[Jles]

Good start.

 

[chonce]

7-3 + 3.2 units

 

[chonce]

MNF tonight.

ADD
Pitt Team Total UNDER 26 (-114) - 1 unit

LA Team Total UNDER 23 (-115) - 1 unit

 

[chonce]

Wow, that Pitt Under never had a chance. I am mad, I thought about buying out of it at half (would.ve cost me .3 units in juice, but I didn't want to make a panic move (after all, the Steelers only had 7 points throughout the first 29 minutes.

Oh well, LA will hopefully not score much.

 

[chonce]

​7-4 + 2.1 units

 

[chonce]

Rams Team Total Under was nice and easy! (And they so rarely are, as my lost Saints ticket shows).

8-4 +3.1 units