Chonce NFL Picks (Week 11)

[chonce]

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Hou + 7 (-115) (Topbet)

Wow, how the hell is Houston 6-3. It feels like they are 3-6. Obviously the division is a shit show. Anyway, I have bet against Oakland a couple times this year and paid for it, but I think we all know (even those who like Oak) know this line is a bit inflated. A TD on a neutral field? Is OAK really a double-digit home fav (which this line suggests? I don't think so. It isn't fun betting on Brock -- Oak is a fun team I would rather root for them, frankly. But 7 points? I couldn't do it. It was HOU or no side.

I also like OAK TT UNDER (I have seen 26.5 out there) is tempting, but I keep getting burned when I tier my units. If I just kept my bets as the same metric I would be better off. I am not doing well with 2 or 3 unit bets. Last year was the opposite, my record was not as good, but my unit count was pretty damn good because I would go 3-2 but win 1 4-unit bet and go 2-2 with 1 unit bets. This year, I seem to lose when I go big.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Hey BIG,

Thanks for stopping by. The Skins showed up.

I am trying to ween of buying points, but ironically, I sort of bought a point at 5 dimes and it landed me a push, but 24 on a half total is a big deal to me.

And of course 3 is a huge deal, but so expensive. I am more willing to buy the points on a larger bet. With a 1 unit bet, if I lose I am down an extra .15 units -- that will add up over time if you go even 60 percent on games where you buy a half point. You need the half point to matter a couple times each season, depending on specifics.

Anyway, I am not militant about this. But I do know that in buying points makes me feel good in the short-term, but probably costs me every years (especially since it is always tempting to buy off a 3, a 7 a 10 etc...)

Anyway, 2-0-1 for the week + 2 units

53-32 + 11.1 units (for the year)

Trying to decide what to do tonight. I do think there is official a tax on Oak. Would them being 9 point favs at home make sense?

But, I am firmly undecided and may look closer at the total options.

Being selective is a good way to keep building the bankroll & profits.......good luck man.

 

[chonce]

Being selective is a good way to keep building the bankroll & profits.......good luck man.

Agreed. I am getting better at passing on games this year, and especially not chasing or making a max (4-unit) bet to chase a good day. Just mostly slogging around with 1 or 2 unit bets and hoping I keep winning more than I lose!