LAR looks good, SF looks bad. I will take it as I bet 2 units o LAR.
Anyway I will add:
Dallas - 4 - 1 unit
I don't get this line but I am not overthinking it. Dallas will be motivated for this one in light of all the NFL/Zeke drama. At home, got to take the better team with the great o-line.
Anyway I will add:
Dallas - 4 - 1 unit
I don't get this line but I am not overthinking it. Dallas will be motivated for this one in light of all the NFL/Zeke drama. At home, got to take the better team with the great o-line.
So far:
5-3 + 3.65 units
I haven't decided if I will post a new thread each week (as I did last year, but with a link to the previous week to try and keep it accurate (I had someone correct me with 2 math mistakes last year, one in my favor one against). Or just one long thread, which is the best for accountability but becomes a mess for practical usage.
So pending my decision I may add this to a new thread, but for now:
add (week 2)
NE - 4.5 (1 unit) (5 Dimes)
It is rare for the Pat's to be undervalued in my opinion. And this line could go in either direction depending on what takes places in Minnesota tonight. But this game screams "statement" game to me. Very much reminds me of week 5 vs Cinci in 2014. People start to doubt the Pats. Talk shows say Brady is cooked etc...Also BB has a long week, and NO has a short one.
I don't see the Pat's going 0-2 and the Thursday game was actually controlled by them for most of 3 quarters. They are not as bad as they looked and I had this line pegged for 5.5. So I will take the value now.
5-3 + 3.65 units
I haven't decided if I will post a new thread each week (as I did last year, but with a link to the previous week to try and keep it accurate (I had someone correct me with 2 math mistakes last year, one in my favor one against). Or just one long thread, which is the best for accountability but becomes a mess for practical usage.
So pending my decision I may add this to a new thread, but for now:
add (week 2)
NE - 4.5 (1 unit) (5 Dimes)
It is rare for the Pat's to be undervalued in my opinion. And this line could go in either direction depending on what takes places in Minnesota tonight. But this game screams "statement" game to me. Very much reminds me of week 5 vs Cinci in 2014. People start to doubt the Pats. Talk shows say Brady is cooked etc...Also BB has a long week, and NO has a short one.
I don't see the Pat's going 0-2 and the Thursday game was actually controlled by them for most of 3 quarters. They are not as bad as they looked and I had this line pegged for 5.5. So I will take the value now.
Sorry I wasn't able to respond sooner but I agree. AP is just too buried behind a better a RB to have a major impact. If Ingram gets hurt we will see if AP is washed up or not. I am a believer that RBs age quickly and while AP has broken the laws of physics by returning so well and fast from an injury, I just don't see a lot of value in a back of his age, short of leadership (but he does't have that).
Lynch in LA will be a good test case. HE is rested, but old and rusty. Looked OK with limited usage but didn't score in Tenn. I am not bullish on Lynch, but he is a good situational weapon.
Anyway, pretty good week for me as I hit both my 2 unit plays and am
YTD: 6-3 + 4.65 units
Wins:
NE OVER -1 unit
Jax 2nd half TT OVER 7 2 units
PHI PK - 1 unit
LAR -4 - 2 units
Dall - 4 1 unit
Minn - 4 1 unit
Losses:
Tenn - 1.2 units
SF - 1.1 unit
Cin -1.05 units
Wow, just saw the NE line is up to -7 at 5 Dimes. I should've bet more at 4.5. I could try and play a middle, but I will probably stay put. If the line was still hovering around 5 I would've bought it down to 4.5 to make it a 2-unit bet. I don't know if I would lay 6.5 or 7 with as much confidence as I pegged it as a 5.5 line, but I suspect the line will come down a bit. This is probably an overreaction to NO woeful game last night.
Anyway, if anyone has a suggestion: should I keep posting on this thread (which over 17 weeks can become pretty damn long, accounting for musings like this) or as i did last year, a new thread each week as I did last year? I do always link to previous week to keep a chain accessible make it easier to tally record, make corrections etc...Thoughts?
My lean is the latter, as I find myself annoyed when I have to fiddle through 20 pages of a single thread at any one time and in the NFL and 8-day old post is worthless aside from data collection (which is arguably just as easy with the links each week since it will take me a shorter thread with easier access to final YTD standings, plays etc...Plus I have been winning for the last year and am a little superstitious (which is absurd)
Anyway, if anyone has a suggestion: should I keep posting on this thread (which over 17 weeks can become pretty damn long, accounting for musings like this) or as i did last year, a new thread each week as I did last year? I do always link to previous week to keep a chain accessible make it easier to tally record, make corrections etc...Thoughts?
My lean is the latter, as I find myself annoyed when I have to fiddle through 20 pages of a single thread at any one time and in the NFL and 8-day old post is worthless aside from data collection (which is arguably just as easy with the links each week since it will take me a shorter thread with easier access to final YTD standings, plays etc...Plus I have been winning for the last year and am a little superstitious (which is absurd)
